Solar Warming

Here is an interesting analysis of solar min/max data. I can’t vouch for the kind of analysis that was performed. But it is interesting to see. The effects of variations in the solar flux on global temperatures seems to be neglected in discussions I run into. Among other things, these folks suggest that a lesser known 66 year solar cycle may come into play.

One commentor in a previous post suggested that we are approaching the end of the current interglacial period. He said that recent interglacial periods were characterized by polar cap melting followed by entry into the glacial side of the cycle.

Even if the solar output was constant, the interplay of the ocean heat reservoir with the atmosphere, greenhouse gases, vulcanism, asteroids, and the earth’s albedo is complex enough.  Heap on top of that the subtle thermal modulation by the sun and you have a really complex problem.

Global warming could reduce to an equation where one of the components of the sum derives from anthropogenic greenhouse emissions. 

I keep having this thought that Al Gore is eventually going to have a long talk with Tipper about returning the medal to Sweden.

8 thoughts on “Solar Warming

  1. Alan Chappell

    The Al Gore family would not I think return anything if it did not show a profit, but, like everything else in his stable, it would be for sale.

    Flux density has gone from .0067 a month ago to .0079.3 today, You provide the pin and I will give you the temp. variations

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  2. Hap

    I thought that the global warming people had accounted for solar variation – in the talk I went to (professor at Ohio State who is a primary investigator – Lonnie Thompson(?)), the speaker said that solar intensity variations accounted for roughly 30% of the observed warming according to their models, but increases in CO2 concn. accounted for most of the rest.

    If glaciation recurs shortly, there would be some cosmic-scale bitter laughter.

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  3. Uncle Al

    Cited analysis does not predict exponentiating global incineration requiring the Carbon Tax on Everything to Save Our Children! Anybody disagreeing with Global Warming is thereby proven unfit to comment.

    If Canada ever gets its Northwest Passage defrosted it will lord over global trade. Is that what you want- a bunch of unreconstructed Smokin’ Joe Stalinists destroying the Grand Dutchy of Panama? Wait… that’s happy happy, isn’t it?

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  4. gaussling Post author

    Looks like I’m slipping deeper into this morass than I’m comfortable with. Oh! The irony of the coming ice age. Bitter laughter is right.

    Maybe Siberia will thaw out and become the next Arkansas. Yoop tvayu mat!

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  5. Flanders

    The earth’s magnetic poles will be flipping ‘soon’ (1,2). It is a process, rather than an event. During the flux diminution period we will have minimal shielding from solar radiation. This is a cyclical event which is way overdue.

    If you want to see what a planet looks like without a magnetic field, take a look at Mars. Its core has cooled and thus suffers under the full brunt of space radiation. Of course the ‘search for life on Mars’ crowd doesn’t want to hear this.

    References
    ———
    1)’The Core’, Paramount Pictures, 2003
    2)Geologically speaking

    🙂

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  6. gaussling Post author

    Hasn’t there been signs of the impending field flip? I’ve heard estimates of this event lasting on the order of 100 years. It’s gonna be a great opportunity for the compass business- at least when it’s over.

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  7. Alan Chappell

    Gaussling.
    To get another view on the worlds polar positions, which has some good points to ponder on read; ‘Rand Flem-Arth’ his theory’s go a long way to explaining the unexplainable.
    And the change takes days not hundreds of years.
    For daily Flux data ,go to Louisxiv the Canadian Gov. observatory.

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