Author Archives: gaussling

About gaussling

Gaussling is a senior scientist in the chemical business. He occasionally breaks glassware, spreads confusion and has been known to generate new forms of hazardous waste. Gaussling also digs aerospace, geology, and community theatre.

Tornado Simulation

Being retired and an avid YouTube viewer I recently blundered into a group of videos presenting supercomputer simulations of tornado formation and evolution. The work is done by Dr Leigh Orf and coworkers.

Image credit: MDPI. Dr. Leigh Orf, The Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS), University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA. Atmosphere 2019, 10(10), 578; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10100578

In an article titled A Violently Tornadic Supercell Thunderstorm Simulation Spanning a Quarter-Trillion Grid Volumes: Computational Challenges, I/O Framework, and Visualizations of Tornadogenesis, Orf describes his supercomputer simulation results from a program written in Fortran95. I gather that development of the software was quite a feat.

What caught my attention was the visual and computational appearance of multiple vortices in the early stages of tornado formation. This can be seen in Orf’s simulations. As a tongue of in-flowing air streams towards the central vortex it abruptly swerves upward and in doing so begins to repeatedly spawn lesser vortices that in the upwards flow that will coalesce with one another and combine with the core vortex. The formation of wispy clouds flowing into the rising, low pressure air funnel renders some of the flow field visible, but not nearly as much as the simulation.

Image from the National Weather Service. A rendering of an idealized anvil cloud.

As the supercell matures, the upward lofting of moist air slows, spreading horizontally and flattening the top to give the characteristic flat top of an anvil cloud. Air cooled at high altitude begins a down wash to the ground carrying precipitation with it. This down wash hits the ground and spreads horizontally causing the so-called first gust prior to the arrival of the storm. You may have noticed the arrival of a strong gust of cold air just before a major storm begins in earnest.

Image from Wikipedia. Notice the position of the mammatus clouds on the trailing edge of the storm. The tornado is towards the leading edge of the storm.

The Massive Problem of “Massive”

An actual lamentation. A pet peeve of mine is the wanton and extravagant overuse of the word massive. It seems to me that the word should be limited to physical things that have mass or weight. We can all agree that Mt. Everest or an asteroid is massive, you know, dense and heavy. But what about as an adjective for a large void? Then there is massive as an adjective for an explosion?

One of the more egregious misapplications of the word arises as a description of a hole, e.g., massive hole. Oh, good gravy. Open the damned thesaurus for a synonym. Ask Mr Google-

The best word for a big hole depends on its shape and how it was made.

Pit: A deep, natural or man-made hole in the ground.

Crater: A large, circular bowl-shaped hole (e.g., from an explosion or meteor).

Chasm: A deep, massive crack or gorge in the Earth’s surface (e.g., a steep-sided rift).

Abyss: A bottomless or unfathomably deep hole or void.

Sinkhole: A natural depression or hole caused by the collapse of surface layers.

For incredible scale or size: Merriam-Webster Thesaurus lists colossal, enormous, gigantic, immense, vast, mammoth, gargantuan, and titanic.

For solid weight or bulk: Hefty, bulky, ponderous, weighty, and substantial are excellent choices.

A close second is massive explosion. The main idea in using an adjective to modify an impressive explosion is to emphasize the power of the thing. Again, Mr Google suggests words depending on the specific context of the sentence, you can choose from these related terms:

  • For pure destructive impact: Blast, detonation, or blowup.
  • For a catastrophic or earth-shattering event: Cataclysm or catastrophe or catastrophic explosion.
  • For fiery or highly energetic events: Eruption, flare, or supernova (for astronomical events).

The folks who write or speak on broadcast or social media seem to be the big offenders. As a result it is unlikely this demographic will see my pathetic blogging on the matter.

Don’t be lazy. Pick appropriate alternatives to massive that conform to the reality of the subject.

The Trump Coup d’Etat Shifts Into Low Gear

Search results from Googling “$350 billion attack on communism”-

“House Speaker Mike Johnson is pushing for an additional $350 billion in military spending for the Pentagon, on top of an already approved record-breaking $1.1 trillion defense budget. Speaker Johnson explicitly stated that a portion of these funds is needed for “fighting communism on our own shores”. This comports with what I’ve read elsewhere.

Speaker Johnson is a punk and a POS.

More of the same from the Republican fearmongering playbook. They lurch from the unjustifiable attack on Iran to a $350 billion uptick in action against the American republic. Somebody convince me that we can elect our way out of this death spiral. This is a coup d’etat in slow motion. This festering blend of Trump cult, Christian evangelical Zionism, testosterone bravado, and libertarian utopian fantasy is free to bungle forward while the fearful Republican majority looks on.

Critical to their coup is that democrats and liberal independents will obey the law without violence while MAGA republicans bog the system with lawfare. Their cunning legal appeals give the ultra conservative in the Supreme Court to rule in favor with precedent setting decisions favoring the gaggle of MAGA Republicans. The press must begin to focus on the Heritage Foundation and its members who provided Project 2025.

Trump is like a corrosive gas. He expands beyond precedent on presidential norms, and like a corrosive, his actions corrode the departments who have to deal with it. He tramples norms and waits for the courts to tell him no. All the while, his behavior seems to display increasingly disabled thinking and disregard for demonstrable facts.

Here is the question.

By maintaining civil obedience during public displays of protest, do we of the loyal opposition do our Democratic Republic a disservice by staying away from a show of physical force or lawfare? Must we remain “peaceful” and witness the fall of the American empire. The Democratic Party seems incapable of finding good candidates and getting them elected at the necessary.

Are we liberal patriots or are we sheep?


Yammering Idiots

Noisy idiots have been a problem throughout history. What to do with precocious citizens with half-baked yet strangely appealing ideas? The notion that jobs are being taken by immigrants is an enduring and popular fancy. Another is that the federal government is merely a front for a squad of hidden mandarins quietly controlling the government from a bunker.

So, where do I get off calling people idiots? Is it not possible that I am an idiot as well? Yes, I’m anxious to clear the air and admit to my own idiocy. No point in denying it. As a lifetime member of the set of all idiots, I’ll offer a defining quality of idiocy.

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The rest of this post is cut and pasted from Facebook. I don’t know who wrote it but here is the link.

Umberto Eco was a scholar — a man who spent sixty years inside libraries, inside ancient manuscripts, inside the deepest questions human beings have ever wrestled with. How do we make meaning? How does a symbol become a belief? How does a word become a world?

He wrote The Name of the Rose — a murder mystery set inside a 14th-century monastery, where the most dangerous weapon wasn’t a sword. It was a book. And the most dangerous idea wasn’t heresy.

It was forbidden knowledge in the hands of the unprepared.

He understood, better than almost anyone alive, what happens when information moves without wisdom to carry it.

So in June 2015, when Umberto Eco accepted an honorary degree from the University of Turin and turned to face the journalists in the room, what he said wasn’t a prepared speech.

It was a warning.

The room went quiet.

Because everyone in it knew he wasn’t being cruel. He was being precise.

For most of human history, spreading an idea required effort. A book had to be written, edited, printed, and earned its way into hands. A journalist had to answer to editors who asked: Is this true? Can you prove it? A voice had to build credibility slowly — through knowledge, through time, through the hard work of being right more often than wrong.

That process wasn’t perfect. Important voices were shut out. Power shaped what got heard. The gatekeepers had their own agendas.

But there was friction. And friction — it turns out — slows things down just long enough for truth to catch up with speed.

Now that friction is almost gone.

A rumor written in anger at midnight can reach a million people before sunrise. A post with no sources, no context, and no accountability can be shared more times than any correction will ever be. Outrage travels faster than nuance. A confident lie moves faster than a careful truth.

Eco understood this — not because he hated technology. Not because he was a bitter old man longing for simpler times.

He understood it because he had spent a lifetime mapping exactly how human beings get deceived. By symbols. By certainty. By the seductive confidence of a voice that sounds like it knows.

His warning wasn’t that everyone having a voice is wrong.

Every person deserves to be heard. The democratization of expression — the idea that you no longer need wealth or institutional power to reach an audience — is genuinely, powerfully good.

His warning was about something quieter. The collapse of the space between having an opinion and having expertise. Between speaking and being believed.

We feel that collapse every single day now.

In the health post written with total confidence by someone with no medical training — shared a hundred thousand times by people who trusted the tone, not the facts. In the political story that races ahead of the truth. In the moment satire gets mistaken for news, and no one notices until the damage is done.

The algorithm doesn’t reward careful.

It rewards engaging. And “engaging” — too often — means shocking, confirming, or enraging.

Umberto Eco died in February 2016. Just eight months after that warning. Just as the world he described was beginning to fully unmask itself.

He never saw what followed.

But his words survived. And they don’t read like criticism anymore.

They read like a map.

So the next time something lands in your feed and every instinct says share this now — pause. One breath.

Ask: Who said this? Why does it make me feel this way? Is the confidence of the writing a substitute for evidence?

Not because you distrust everything. Not because truth doesn’t exist.

But because the single most powerful thing any of us can do in an age of noise — is slow down long enough to think.

That, Umberto Eco would say, is not weakness.

That is the only thing standing between information and wisdom.

Stray Radiation from CBCT Scanner

In preparation for a dental implant I “took a ride” in a Cone Beam Computed Tomography, CBCT, x-ray scanner with my Geiger counter. I did the scan with a small Geiger counter hidden in my pants pocket. Why hidden you ask? Because I didn’t want to spook the dental assistant and dentist into paroxysms of fear and loathing over bad publicity. I was just curious about scattered radiation.

Source: Google. A CBCT, Cone Beam Computed Tomography panoramic cone beam x-ray scanner.

I’ve had three rounds of radiation, two PET scans and several dozen IMRT CT scans so no worries here about the brief x-radiation exposure as an old guy. Between cosmic rays, solar UV, uranium in the granite, radon with all of her daughters, blasting alphas, betas, gammas and finally muons from the sky, we’re constantly bathed in environmental radiation.

Image from Wikipedia. Schematic of CBCT machine.

Looking how the cone beam spreads (above) from source to detector, perhaps it is no wonder that some of the x-rays exceed the cone in the diagram.

The background counts per minute following the x-ray was 22 cpm, average for around here. During the x-ray, the counts peaked at 19,838 cpm over ~30seconds for a 902 cpm times background.

Photo by Arnold Ziffel.

I take radiation seriously, but the fact is that it is a stochastic hazard so correlating cancer with exposure is tricky.

According to Google AI with search query “is radiation hazard stochastic?” being stochastic means that-

I agree with what Naomi Klein said

Image copied from Facebook.

I started to post the content below on Facebook but somehow the old saying about casting your pearls before the swine began to echo inside my pointed head. My Facebook friends aren’t swine obviously -I love all of them- but it is a limited distribution.

The same class of business geniuses who off-shored American manufacturing are now telling us that their AI technology will relieve people of menial labor. This ‘menial labor’ is what keeps food on the table of millions of human beings. Yes, in theory the AI-unemployed could retrain to work in information technology, but seriously, that’s not going to happen. AI is looking to replace computer programmers too as well as white collar management level jobs. Desktop computers devastated the job market for secretarial and typing pools in the 1980s. The result is that information workers spend much of their time performing typesetting and formatting tasks in addition to their to jobs.

Ever try to but tickets online? Invariably you must download an app and enter commercially valuable information like your name, email address, phone number and credit card number so their algorithm can place you in a barrel with the rest of the fish. From there you will be set up for personalized marketing and sale to parts unknown. All to get admittance a single time with over priced tickets. Need to ask a question? Just forget it.

Business school graduates are taught that properly ambitious people should be engaged in bringing down existing paradigms. Okay, fine, I get it. Any economic bubble will reward early adopters with a greater opportunity for wealth. It was true with any gold or land rush in history and is part of human nature. But that does not mean that the government is supposed to stack the deck for business and against the public good by using its immense resources to force the public to ‘cooperate’ and line up to have their pockets picked.

The trickle down economics theory pushed by Ronny Reagan remains in the imaginations of many today. It was BS then and is BS today. When organizations greet an uptick in profits, they have a choice of what to do with it. They can put it back into their businesses for improvements or they could hire more workers to meet the demand. But this often requires new customers who may not be there. Added profits are just as likely to banked off-shore or go into tax shelters. You only hire more people if demand requires it.

Power is in the ability to allocate resources. The American plutocrats of today like the ‘tech bros’ exploit the automatic admiration of the public as well as their wealth to steer the economy as as they please.

Pucker Factor Relaxing in LA with Runaway Tanks of MMA

Sphincters are beginning to loosen in LA with the MMA fiasco tapering into a more banal conclusion. Here MMA does not refer to Mixed Martial Arts. It is the abbreviation for methyl methacrylate, a reactive monomer for the production of PMMA, poly[methyl methacrylate], often called acrylic or Plexiglass. Plexiglass is a generic name like “Xerox” or “Velcro” but it is also trademark.

There was a lot of loose talk about a possible explosion, a B.L.E.V.E., detonation, and vapor plumes. I would categorize this incident as a low frequency, high consequence event.

This being LA, I wonder how long it will take for a movie or miniseries to come out? I vote for Brad Pitt and Scarlett Johansson to star in it and produced by Steven Spielberg. The lead investigator for the US Chemical Safety Board would be Tig Notaro.

Google Earth view of GKN Aerospace location, 12369 Western Ave, Garden Grove, California. Site of evolving chemical (MMA) runaway incident. The three smaller silver-colored tanks are presently being sprayed down with cooling water.

Cooling a large tank of liquid on the outside surface is one of the least effective methods of cooling bulk material. Ideally, a vessel would have an immersed heat exchanger for efficient cooling with agitation and possibly with a cooling jacket. Properties of MMA: 100.3 to 101 oC boiling point; Flash Point 10 oC; vapor pressure of 29 to 37 mm Hg, It is highly flammable.

Google Earth view of GKN Aerospace location, 12369 Western Ave, Garden Grove, California, site of evolving chemical (MMA) runaway incident. To the right of the large tank are the three smaller tanks presently being sprayed down for cooling. Notice the proximity of a residential neighborhood.

It is not uncommon for an industrial park to be near a residential area. But, in my estimation, a chemical plant storing something like bulk MMA near a residential area is not the best situation. You have to ask if the zoning people knew about this proximity situation or if such was even contemplated. This is likely to lead to state legislation or city ordinances. Everyone likes to rush into locking the barn door after the horse has run loose.

Google street view of 12369 Western Ave, Garden Grove, California. Site of evolving chemical runaway incident. The tanks presently being sprayed down for cooling are behind the brown and white tank.

According to Wikipedia, GKN Ltd is a British multinational automotive and aerospace components business headquartered in Redditch, England. They manufacture what are called military “transparency systems”, meaning canopies, windshields and windows.

The MMA in the tanks is converting to a big block of acrylic polymer. If you’re interested in buying it, I’ll bet they will give you a good deal on it …

Methyl Methacrylate Runaway in Los Angeles

The methyl methacrylate (MMA) runaway situation in Garden Grove, CA, seems to have plateaued. The aerospace company whose storage tanks are in the news produces what it calls “transparencies”. This is their trade name for plexiglass aircraft canopies, wind shields and windows. The word “plexiglass” is in common usage but derives from the trademark “Plexiglass“. Its not to be confused with “Lexan” which is a polycarbonate.

It dawned on me that the MMA runaway situation will be self-limiting. As the runaway polymerization proceeds, the rate of heat evolution should taper off as the reaction rate slows due to consumption of MMA. Just simple kinetics. The runaway reaction converts liquid MMA to solid poly[methyl methacrylate], or just PMMA. The MMA is turning onto a solid brick of plastic. This slows down the rate of reaction which necessarily slows down the rate of heat release.

The upshot is that if the tanks are kept cool enough to prevent rupture, yet warm enough to allow the reaction to creep forward, the runaway is under control.

The very fact that this runaway happened at all in “normal” storage suggests that the MMA was insufficiently passivated with stabilizer. The usual stabilizers are typically some variety of phenolic additives. This would include BHT, BHA and other catechols and phenols chemically modified for organic solubility.

The polymerization of MMA occurs via a radical chain reaction mechanism. Stabilizers like the phenolics are able to release H-dot, or hydrogen radical, which interferes with the polymerization by terminating the free radicals propagating the reaction. Each H-dot combines with any other radical it comes in contact with and halts MMA participation in the reaction.

Below is a graphic from an article published on PubMed. Watch the dots, the dots are the radical electron. The upper reaction is chain propagation which is the desired reaction. See how the double line in the MMA structures changes to a single line? One of the two electrons in the second line is taken by an incoming free radical to form a new link in the growing polymer. The other electron is the leftover free radical which awaits a collision with another MMA molecule. This is how the polymer grows.

Image Source: Hint- watch the dots. Ahamad Said MN, Hasbullah NA, Rosdi MRH, Musa MS, Rusli A, Ariffin A, Shafiq MD. Polymerization and Applications of Poly(methyl methacrylate)-Graphene Oxide Nanocomposites: A Review. ACS Omega. 2022 Dec 15;7(51):47490-47503. doi: 10.1021/acsomega.2c04483. PMID: 36591191; PMCID: PMC9798503.

Let’s assume that the first reaction is the desired reaction and I’ll refer to it as “proper”. The critical feature of MMA is the double line. That is the location of the transformations in the polymerization. Each double line in the MMA has two ends- one end is the terminus and the other end is internal. The addition of the next MMA is desired to add its terminus of the growing end of the chain. This transformation leaves a radical at the internal end for further desired polymerization.

The second reaction shows how propagation can run afoul when the double line connects at the wrong position. The shape of this connection error- or kink- is different than that of the intended connection. The result is a polymer backbone linkage of 2 carbon atoms rather than the desired single carbon. This doesn’t happen just once but many times. The cumulative effect is that a chemically distinct polymer is produced that degrades or dilutes the desired physicochemical properties of the intended PMMA.

The third and lower reaction shows the undesired linkage reaction with both “properly” linked MMA and “improperly” linked chains to give a succeeding undesired linkage.

I wonder if during the event that if a trickle of stabilizer were added, would it have made an observable difference? I assume that no agitation in the tank is available beyond convection currents, of course. it would be a large scale science experiment on an evolving and novel public emergency situation. Responders and, uh, everyone else, would disapprove.

Putin’s Client State Belarus Preparing for ‘Defensive War’

Putin has been preparing Belarus for war with Ukraine for at least several years. According to one source, Belarus is being prepared as a staging ground and military hub for Russia. Along the Belarus border with Ukraine, roads and artillery positions are being built.

Belarus is thought to have as many as 50 to 60 thousand troops, though none are combat hardened. The Belarusian military is participating in extensive joint nuclear warfare exercises with Russian forces, testing the readiness of strategic deterrents and tactical nuclear systems.

Belarusian president Lukashenko claims not to want war but warns it is prepared to defend its sovereignty. Whether or not Belarusian troops actively engage Ukrainian forces in combat or simply provide help to Russian forces by way of assistance along the border with war materiel is unclear.

As a client state of Russia, the question of Belarusian sovereignty seems a bit shallow given its heavy reliance on Russia for armaments and political support of the Lukashenko regime. Lukashenko finds himself between NATO and Putin- not a happy place. What Putin forces Belarus to do remains to be seen.

The SuwaĹ‚ki corridor connects the Russian Kaliningrad Oblast on the Baltic to Belarus along the Polish-Lithuanian border. If fighting begins in earnest along the Belarus-Ukraine border, the inherent westward advance of hostilities will threaten Poland and Lithuania as well as call into question Russia’s intentions in regard to its access to Kaliningrad.

It’s worth remembering that Russia’s nuclear doctrine has long held that it does not recognize a firebreak between conventional and nuclear war as does the West. This is baked-in uncertainty for NATO in it’s approach to Russian response to the conduct of war.

One thing is certain, Putin intends on diluting Ukraine’s force posture along it’s eastern and southern fronts by ramping up hostilities from the Belarusian border. Reportedly, Russian electronic warfare sites have been placed on civilian residential buildings in the hope of using civilians as human shields.

Billions of bullets flying through the air in Putin’s dirty little “special military operation” but not a single one has found him. Isn’t that the way it always goes?

Educational Deficiencies in the Past Are Front and Center Today

As you would expect, deficiencies in American education each school year will impact the future as each K-12 graduating class blends into the population. They take with them a lumpy mix of classroom lessons and life experiences from outside of school.

Some grads will go straight into the work force while others choose college or military service. Some won’t graduate, leaving them to find a living wage without specialist training that might justify higher wages. A few may explore criminality and eventually find 3 hots and a cot inside one of America’s many “Grey Bar Hotels”.

Since the start of Trump’s MAGA movement in 2016, its supporters show a different understanding of civics than what I learned in 9th grade civics, indicating significant discrepancies in our views on the practical functioning of American democracy.

Any fool can describe from their perspective of how American civil society actually functions in its tangle of interconnections and dead ends with what the ideal tangle should look like. MAGA followers believe that they have been systematically kept from the “Good Life” in America by a supposed “Deep State” of elites with their woke-agenda governmental agencies.

In the imagination of MAGA followers the “elites” are a dark coterie of liberals comprising intellectuals, university professors, LGBTQ+, environmental activists and others in the festering carbuncle of liberal wokism. Or so it goes. The accusations of deep state machinations and conniving and woke elites steering an otherwise god-fearing and patriotic nation into disrepute and moral disfigurement was gratefully accepted by disgruntled millions.

As each 12th grade graduating class shambles into the future, we drag along our predispositions, learnings and fresh skills in our survival tool kits. For some, the tool kits are satisfactory. For others, not so much. Many are unaware of what should be in the kits in the first place. Most of us carry knowledge and skills that are hardly used and initially appeared to be a waste of time.

Everyone carries educational deficiencies of some sort into the future. For some, the gaps in education hardly matter in our lives. Sometimes it does matter.

Many who are deficient in civics have trouble avoiding a cynical and sarcastic outlook over government and politics. Rather than admit to ignorance and resolving to improve, many rest on the assumption that politics = corruption. As with all human endeavors, there is some truth to this.

Public schools in the USA are much maligned and have been under attack by those who seek to embed them in an overall religious education. I refer to conservative protestant evangelical organizations. ALEX, the conservative American Legislative Exchange, is a source of written legislation and municipal codes or other rule making text that is used at the local level of politics including municipalities and school districts. Those wishing to legislate their religious beliefs onto school children find this service very useful. It gives continuity to large scale implementation of protestant evangelical doctrine.

School districts in my state have elected board members who have transplanted religious doctrine from ALEX to school boards in conservative areas. One of the best ways to convince governing groups to adopt new rules is to supply them with text to adopt rather than depending on the members to gin up their own text.

I once gave a presentation to our town board hoping they would adopt a Dark Sky Initiative. At the end of my presentation I handed out copies of ordinances adopted by other communities. My request was ignored but a few years later and with another presentation by someone else an ordinance was eventually adopted. By that time outdoor LED light fixtures with horizontal cutoff were widely available and ordinary. Nobody had to take a chance with a new policy.

Many within and from the public schools bemoan the lack of financial and religious education in the schools. I would argue that this is fundamentally the responsibility of the family. In my area, we have a mixture of Mormons, Baptists, Methodists, Catholics, Atheists and Lutherans. Which religious sect should design and teach religious curriculum? Should your Mormon child’s religious studies be taught by a Baptist? What if one group viewed it as well balanced but the Mormons say it is deficient in their doctrines. Imagine the cat fight. Leave the religious indoctrination to Sunday school. The public school curriculum should remain secular just like math and physical education.

Today American liberal democracy is collapsing because 1/3 of the voters misunderstand the basics of democracy. America has always had an anti-intellectual bent and today with social media, ignorant citizens reinforce their ignorance through connection with the wider collection of dullards and lazy thinkers online.