2/10/23. News is breaking that China wants to militarize the near space environment, defined as 12 to 60 miles in altitude. News reports are appearing that claim that the balloon was carrying radio antennas capable of receiving and possibly geolocating radio transmissions over the US according to The Guardian. A senior State Department source said that a U2 flyby was able to determine that the balloon was being used for gathering signals intelligence.

According to CNN, the military was aware of the balloon from the very beginning and avoided any unencrypted radio communications along the flight path.

The Chinese government reacted angrily to the downing of the balloon, continuing to maintain that it was for weather research. It seems to me that the public display of anger is mostly for internal consumption although there could be those elsewhere who actually believe the official story. From various reports, it appears that the Chinese government is embarrassed that it got caught in a lie. Like other autocracies, it screeches in displeasure when contradicted.

The balloon was judged to be absent any threat to the US by the North American Defense Command when it was discovered off Alaska. Shooting it down over the US was determined to be unsafe for the citizens below. Later, in a press conference, Gen. Glen VanHerck, Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command and United States Northern Command stated that the balloon debris that fell into the ocean is expected to be within a 1500 meter by 1500 meter field and in about 50 feet of water. The US Navy and Coast Guard are on station for recovery efforts.

From the press conference-

STAFF:  Let’s go to — let’s go to Jennifer Griffin, Fox.

Q:  Thanks, General VanHerck. Can I just ask you, on the record again, because there’s been a lot made in recent days still about why this was not shot down after it crossed or neared the Aleutian Islands? Can you just explain what you were watching then, what you were thinking then? What the decision-making process was. And why it — you didn’t have enough time to do so, if that was the case?

GEN. VANHERCK:  Thanks, Jennifer. It wasn’t time. It — the domain awareness was there as it approached Alaska. It was my assessment that this balloon did not present a physical military threat to North America, this is under my NORAD hat. And therefore, I could not take immediate action because it was not demonstrating hostile act or hostile intent. [emphasis mine] From there, certainly, provided information on the status of the whereabouts of the balloon. And moving forward, kept the department and the governor — the government of Canada in the loop as my NORAD, I have a boss in Canada as well. Over.

The General made an interesting comment about collecting intelligence-

Again, this is on record previously. We did not assess that it presented a significant collection hazard beyond what already exists in actionable technical means from the Chinese.

And with that said, you always have to balance that with the intel gain opportunity [emphasis mine]. And so there was a potential opportunity for us to collect intel where we had gaps on prior balloons, and so I would defer to the intel community, but this gave us the opportunity to assess what they were actually doing, what kind of capabilities existed on the balloon, what kind of transmission capabilities existed, and I think you’ll see in the future that the — that time frame was well worth it’s value to collect.