Author Archives: gaussling

About gaussling

Gaussling is a senior scientist in the chemical business. He occasionally breaks glassware, spreads confusion and has been known to generate new forms of hazardous waste. Gaussling also digs aerospace, geology, and community theatre.

De-platforming Trump and Misinformers From Twitter, YouTube and Facebook. The Effect on Disinformation.

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The top-tier scientific journal Nature published on June 5, 2024, a research paper on the effects of Twitter de-platforming 70,000 accounts providing fake news. Unfortunately for many (most?) of us, online access to Nature is behind a paywall.

I won’t waste time on an analysis of someone else’s brief analysis of the hidden Nature article “Post-January 6th deplatforming reduced the reach of misinformation on Twitter.” Am I too miserly for not paying for a Nature article or a subscription? Yes, I am. I will include a link here to a brief online review article at TechPolicy.press for the readers consideration.

“The report makes clear that the authors could not reliably identify the magnitude of the observed effects due to the complexity of the events surrounding the insurrection and the volume of the news reporting on it, and that the results may not be generalizable to other platforms or events. But while Twitter normally “benefitted enormously from Trump’s volatile tweets” by keeping the platform “at the center of public discourse,” they say, the events at the US Capitol marked a moment of crisis for the company. “January 6th is a moment that highlights the relationship between real-world violence and misinformation, as well as the attempt at purposeful control over political speech on Twitter by its leadership,” the paper reads. In th [sic] moment of crisis, perhaps the bluntest of content moderation tools appears to have had the intended effect.” Source: TechPolicy.Press [Emphasis mine]

Instead of relying on words and handwaving, the authors of the Nature paper above used actual Twitter data from 500,000 users over June 2020 to February 2021 to extract trends about the very complex behavior surrounding the Jan 6th, 2021, event. Again, from the TechPolicy.press article …

“To answer these questions, the researchers used data acquired during the two most recent US election cycles to compare the misinformation sharing rates on Twitter. The 2020 election share rate among all Twitter users was five times higher than in the 2016 elections, and about twice as high among misinformation sharers. Following the November 2020 elections, and up until January 6th, the rates of misinformation remained “relatively high,” which is in direct contrast with the 2016 elections, where misinformation “declined immediately following Trump’s victory.” These results suggest “a marked change in the misinformation ecosystem on Twitter over time,” according to the paper.” Source: TechPolicy.Press [Emphasis mine]

It is interesting how the “misinformation declined immediately following Trump’s victory.” Golly, why would that be?

A doff of the hat to the authors.

Vatican Cracking Down on Alleged Apparitions

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When a tiny slit between the grubby natural world and the rarefied ether of the supernatural tears and the two realms have a chance to see one another, people will naturally want to tell others. As luck would have it, when Catholics experience an apparition, it always seems to be from the Catholic playbook. You know, the Blessed Virgin, Jesus on toast or Saint so-and-so. It’s never Martin Luther or Desmond Tutu.

I write about this only as an amused outsider. I don’t care what they think they saw. Let ’em have it. It’s a great story to share. What is engaging for me is that the Church is uneasy with the doctrinal implications of what many of the apparitions or miracles have brought to the mix. The quote below by Cardinal Víctor Manuel Fernández is insightful.

“Even recently, some bishops have wanted to make statements such as, ‘I confirm the absolute truth of the facts’ and ‘the faithful must undoubtedly consider as true …’”. “These expressions,” [Cardinal Víctor Manuel] Fernández states, “effectively oriented the faithful to think they had to believe in these phenomena, which sometimes were valued more than the Gospel itself.”

Effective May 19, 2024, the Vatican has issued a document titled “Norms for Proceeding in the Discernment of Alleged Supernatural Phenomena.” Whereas previously, a local bishop had much discretion in what he decides before he announces a determination on an event of alleged supernatural origin. The new guideline states that the Vatican’s Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith (DDF) “must always be consulted and give final approval to what the bishop decides …”. The new norms say that “only the pope can judge that an alleged apparition or other phenomenon is of “supernatural origin.” 

What is going on with the supernatural phenomena issue? Has there been an outbreak? The whole religion rests on a pillar of the supernatural so is it really that bad? The real change is very small- the main difference with the new guideline is that consultation between the diocesan bishop and the dicastery is now in the open rather than going unmentioned and the Pope has the final word according to the Catholic News Agency. They don’t want the doctrine to get too wacky.

Why? It seems that the accounts of personal revelation and Marian apparitions were getting a bit out of hand. Many bishops have been inclined to rule in a positive way in favor of the alleged apparition. This became a problem writ large in the minds of some and it had to be addressed.

As I have previously mentioned, I did time in Texas. I did a postdoc in the blazing hot, heavily Catholic city of San Antonio, TX. One evening on the local news there was a TV camera crew trying to capture an apparition of the Blessed Virgin Mary. It happened in an alley in a tree back lit by a streetlight and it drew a crowd of anxious, jabbering onlookers. The apparition itself was actually a shadow from a tree under the streetlight. But with the car headlights and TV camera lights it had completely vanished. Yet people lingered, hoping for a glimpse of the miraculous sighting. Eventually, the camera crew signed off and left. It was yet another Marian Apparition witnessed only by a lucky few.

Chomsky’s Opinion Piece in the NYT on AI

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The New York Times published an opinion piece on March 8, 2024, by Noam Chomsky, Ian Roberts and Jeffrey Watumull called “The False Promise of ChatGPT”. Dr. Chomsky and Dr. Roberts are Professors of Linguistics and Dr. Watumull is a director of AI at a technology company.

Both Chomsky and Roberts are professors of linguistics at prestigious universities. As linguists, their approach to AI begins with citing elements of human intelligence and drawing comparisons of what AI systems actually do. The human brain is not just a computational engine marching bits around inside silicon chips but made of fatty neurons. Our brains are able to ” … balance creativity with constraint”. I think this is called “considered judgement”.

Naturally the piece has spurred numerous rebuttals including one by ChatGPT. Having used ChatGPT, I can confirm that it left me in a state a wonderment. It is easy to be impressed by its speed and seemingly cogent response. AI and machine learning are part of a current and expanding technology bubble being inflated up by computer code squads in both academics and business. It is both a fascinating basket of problems to be solved and a lucrative startup space for an emerging industry.

Some text from the article-

“OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Bard and Microsoft’s Sydney are marvels of machine learning. Roughly speaking, they take huge amounts of data, search for patterns in it and become increasingly proficient at generating statistically probable outputs — such as seemingly humanlike language and thought. These programs have been hailed as the first glimmers on the horizon of artificial general intelligence — that long-prophesied moment when mechanical minds surpass human brains not only quantitatively in terms of processing speed and memory size but also qualitatively in terms of intellectual insight, artistic creativity and every other distinctively human faculty.”

“In short, ChatGPT and its brethren are constitutionally unable to balance creativity with constraint. They either overgenerate (producing both truths and falsehoods, endorsing ethical and unethical decisions alike) or undergenerate (exhibiting noncommitment to any decisions and indifference to consequences). Given the amorality, faux science and linguistic incompetence of these systems, we can only laugh or cry at their popularity.”

“The crux of machine learning is description and prediction; it does not posit any causal mechanisms or physical laws. Of course, any human-style explanation is not necessarily correct; we are fallible. But this is part of what it means to think: To be right, it must be possible to be wrong. Intelligence consists not only of creative conjectures but also of creative criticism. Human-style thought is based on possible explanations and error correction, a process that gradually limits what possibilities can be rationally considered. (As Sherlock Holmes said to Dr. Watson, “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”)” [Emphasis mine]

My own opinion of AI is only just a series of half-formed, half-assed sputtering sentence fragments that are in the “It’ll never fly, Orville” stage. Nobody wants to hear that.

If you look back on the history of science and technology, many patterns arise. The discovery or invention of the wheel and the lever, iron and copper smelting, the steam engine, the Voltaic pile, electromagnetism, coal tar distillates, the first sulfa antibiotic Prontosil, the discovery of nuclear fission, and many, many more discoveries and developments of core technologies. What these events have in common is that each sit at the beginning of a long and fruitful chain of succeeding developments along with business opportunities and great wealth. The wealth came from having something new and useful to sell. Most of these development chains involved the reduction of labor hours in production to produce a unit of product. With competition came the impetus to reduce costs to maintain sales.

An earlier technology bubble was the personal computer (PC). The PC’s very existence led to software development leading to an avalanche of improvement in every aspect of the PC. This led to the use of spreadsheets, word processors, email and databases which phased-out the need for a large secretarial pool. These improvements gave way to do-it-yourself correspondence and spreadsheet data analysis, as well as a multitude of data entry and typesetting chores for everyone. This had the effect of keeping the headcount down at the organization and perhaps raising margins.

The question now is, what kind of havoc in the labor market will be wreaked by AI? Will AI be exploited to traffic in political influence? It already has. AI amounts to a foam of adjacent expanding bubbles trying to push into every aspect of our lives, each bubble a cure looking for a disease. But virtually every new technology seeks the same. The difference with AI is that it in itself is a smooth-talking devil capable of offering either great good or an entry into the dark arts.

Risk and Regulations: An Epistle to the Bohemians, Redux.

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Attached is an updated reprint of an essay I posted 10/28/07. Since then I have shifted into EPA regulatory compliance within the chemical industry. My views have changed a little, it turns out.

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“We live in an age of miracle and wonder” is the refrain from Paul Simon’s album Graceland. All around us and through us are engineered materials devised for their specific physical and chemical properties. Time-released magic bullet drugs that inhibit specific enzymes. Flavors & fragrances, colorants, rheology modifiers, UV absorbers, emollients, preservatives, food irradiation and manufactured food additives are engineered and marketed to satisfy our lizard brain’s willingness to shell out cash-for-fun and stimulate our limbic system’s emotive triggers. 

It is hard to avoid contact with manufactured goods that aren’t affected by chemistry. A century and a half of tinkering with substances at the molecular scale has given us the ability to optimize the composition and performance of products that make our lives easier and safer.  Microprocessors and Lycra, Hastelloy and Lipitor- the chemical industry has evolved to produce the raw materials and finished goods needed for the performance we have come to expect.

Industry has a Spotty Record of Safety

Along with the considerable list of positive contributions, history provides a detailed record of the problems associated with the exuberant but uncritical acceptance of the flood of manufactured goods.  From radium poisoning of watch dial painters to chromium VI to asbestos, there is a long list of accidents, ignorance, negligence and environmental insult. The trail blazing of our chemical industry leaves behind it a chronicle of tragedy as well as benefits.

The result of the checkered past of industry is a growing (some would say “metastasizing”) and intertwined web of state, federal, and international regulatory oversight and requirements. And with it- arguably as a result of it- has come greater institutional risk aversion. 

Risk Aversion

In a general way, risk aversion is a type of survival trait and is likely hardwired into our ape brains. It is hard to blame people for being wary or fearful of risks, especially those they do not understand. Over time risk aversion is useful survival trait. But on the other hand, risk aversion is also a type of inertia. Or, it can be a fulcrum from which policy and imaginary justifications are leveraged.  The fear of risk may be firmly grounded on experience or it might be imagined or a mixture of the two. The hard part of risk management is identifying real hazards and the probability and magnitude of a bad outcome for managing safety day-to-day. Basically, the hard part is the whole part.

Risk = Probability x Severity of a negative outcome.

Corporate officers have a fiduciary responsibility to the stockholders. They’re purpose is to maximize profits without undue risk to the organization. Most respond to the regulatory environment by perhaps heaving a sigh and relenting to the requirements. Regulatory compliance can have costs associated with it like animal testing of chemical products and intermediates, or engineering upgrades and these costs need to be built into annual budgetary calculations.

How Granular Does Safety Have to Be?

Can safety practices be excessive? I would say that if some specific activity is based on imaginary risks, risks identified by the untrained or massively overestimated risks, the cold eyes of an industry consultant may be needed. Who knows, you may have actually underestimated a risk.

Safety has a large psychological component to it. How do you compel people to behave consistently in a way that keeps everyone safe? Not just immediately, but in the twentieth or five hundredth time they perform a task with associated hazards? Complacency is a normal human weakness where a misstep can lead to casualties.

The amount and type of safety measures in chemical processing required greatly depends on the chemical substance. Some company’s batch records give very detailed instructions to maintain constant safety. Others are less so on the assumption that the operations staff know what they are doing. Too much detail can lead to operator impatience and freelancing.

It is possible for organizations to be dominated by confident voices that are quite risk averse but not very knowledgeable about the technology. Leaders will state that “safety-first is our policy”.  A paper storm of SOPs will issue, dragging out the most elementary actions into numerous steps and check boxes. There is great merit to SOPs, but enlightened and proactive interpersonal management of hazardous operations is just as important. Management by walking around works.

Organizations can find themselves spiraling into micromanagement of even the smallest details for fear that the regulatory and liability hammer could fall at any moment. Indeed, if one studies many regulations in detail, it is easy to fall into habit of overreacting. Risk aversion isn’t just a personality issue, it is statutory under numerous regulatory umbrellas.

Being a baby boomer, the chemical safety practices I have been exposed to and have practiced is rather out of date. My education occurred during a time when running chemical reactions on an unventilated bench top was normal. We used Tirrill burners to flame dry our glassware on the sophomore organic lab benchtop and set the hot glass on a Transite square, an asbestos product from Johns Manville. I still would have no problem using Transite. In fact, I have done many things since summer of 1980 that would be frowned upon today. My grad school and post doc time went way into the weeds on using hazardous materials with minimal oversight.

You learn how to safely handle chemicals by safely handling chemicals. In the course of using a chemical, you might conclude that the known hazard of the substance appears to be exaggerated, so over time and repetition you let your safety practices loosen up a bit. Then one day, you cross some unseen line and an energetic event happens. While what you did leading to this outcome might be categorized as carelessness, as they drag you out of the lab by your one remaining arm, your ears ringing, a metallic taste in your mouth, and partially covered by your torn and smoldering lab coat, you recognize that you actually learned something from that experience. You now have a better appreciation for the safe operating range for that chemical. You’ve gotten one quantum unit of expertise. This is one way to gain expertise, albeit a painful one. Perhaps it will be useful once you start your next career. I have had many close calls and each one taught me something. Perversely, not having close calls with chemicals- some would call it luck -actually deprives one of practical and useful experience.

Today I am a senior chemist involved in chemical safety in industry. Until recently, I was involved in finding the thermal safety boundaries of chemical reactions through calorimetry. But with the past experience that I have, I know a bit more about the boundary conditions of handling chemicals than the younger chemists may get to acquire. In order to know how to work with hazardous chemicals you must have worked previously with hazardous chemicals and perhaps seen for yourself what can happen with sloppy technique.

This is nothing reckless like poking alligators with a stick in Florida or free climbing El Capitan. I mean things like seeing what actually happens when you pour concentrated H2SO4 into water fast enough right up to the boiling point taking care not to have a splash. Maybe you can see the heat of dilution boiling the water at the H2SO4/water interface.

The Regulatory Environment

Statutory risk aversion is the domain of the state. The name “Nanny State” is a sarcastic descriptor referring to a perceived excess of regulated requirements and conditions in our lives as well as the set of penalties.  Though perhaps well intended, the Nanny State seeks to zero out risk. Even if a situation arises for which there is no explicit regulation, OSHA has the General Duty Clause where employers are required to provide:

“employment and a place of employment which are free from recognized hazards that are causing or are likely to cause death or serious physical harm to his employees…”

This provision exists to address any gaps in OSHA regulations that may not account for unforeseen circumstances. The plethora of regulations is partly due to the vast array of situations in which industrial employees might be injured or killed. Additionally, lawyers have identified and exploited loopholes in the regulations, which are subsequently closed by regulatory agencies. Ambiguities are often resolved through statutory amendments or the application of established case law.

EPA TSCA has the job of generating and enforcing regulations regarding the manufacture and use of a range of industrial chemicals in a limited sector of manufacturing. The central doctrine is from:

As required under section 6(b)(4) of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), EPA is issuing a rule that establishes a process for conducting risk evaluations to determine whether a chemical substance presents an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment, without consideration of costs or other non-risk factors, including an unreasonable risk to a potentially exposed or susceptible subpopulation, under the conditions of use. [Emphasis mine]

TSCA does not include Food, Drugs, Petroleum, Pesticides and a few other areas.

The key words above are unreasonable risk. With every New Chemical Substance filing sent to the TSCA folks at EPA, an assessment must be made by various subgroups for unreasonable risk by the human health group, the engineering group and the environmental group. Thresholds for “unreasonable” have been quantified in order to exclude subjectivity. EPA has many computer models of exposure thresholds, migration in the soil and toxicity to many creatures including humans.

The regulatory environment can make the production of a new chemical substance more expensive or even unfeasible. Nobody advocates the idea that we should be free to pollute and risk the lives of workers and communities.  But even for the most skillful and well-intended, there are many regulatory landmines to dodge: air, water, and waste permits; local zoning; OSHA; EPA (TSCA); fire codes; insurance inspections; MSDS’s in multiple languages; ITAR; and DEA. All have reporting requirements, statutes, and paper trails to maintain.

Pragmatics

There are two kinds of disaster that can bring down a chemical plant. One is obviously a fire or explosion in the plant made even worse by casualties. The other is an administrative or legal disaster. This could be a tax problem or worse like having been determined to be out of EPA regulatory compliance for a chemical release into the environment or worker exposure over time. EPA fines are levied per day per violation.

In my view, the USA began ossifying many years ago in regulatory paralysis in much the same way the EU or Japan has.  The combination of business risk aversion along with the popular sport of outsourcing our means of production only serves to accelerate the de-industrialization of the USA and the EU. At present there is some effort by the semiconductor manufacturers and others to repatriate manufacturing back to the US out of fear of foreign governments using strategic trade regulation as a competitive cudgel.

What can one reasonably do? Consider even if regulations could be softened, this could take a long time. Until such time as there is a change in regulation, it is best to knuckle under willingly. First on the list is to just be compliant with regulations. Even an excellent argument against an “unjust” regulation enforced by an agency will get you nowhere because regulators are legally required to enforce the regulations and fine violators. If you are facing a regulatory judgement, it is well worth having a lawyer who specializes in that area of the law.

Accepting a harsh judgement on your record can possibly hurt you in the future by having a history of serious earlier infractions. A lawyer can search the case law and possibly find a lesser judgement or better interpretation of the regulations. Avoid at all costs the possibility of being found a repeat violator in some future court action. There could be extenuating circumstances that should be taken into account, but this is the lawyer’s domain and is no place for amateurs.

Fiat Lux

In the chemical industry we have regulatory specialists and EH&S departments who keep on top of the regulations and are responsible for maintaining timely compliance. They help keep the doors open and should be appreciated. That said, executives lurking in the C-Suite should be at least conversant in labor and environmental regulation to the point where they know to get advice before issuing directions relating to this.

Note: Obviously I’m not a damned lawyer and my words should not be construed as actual legal advice. I am simply recollecting learnings from my experiences.

Learning Chemistry and Struggle

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A few thoughts on struggle in learning. I’ll confess to having taught undergraduates in the classroom and the research lab environment. My classroom teaching bona fides are limited to 6 years of college level chemistry lecture/lab and quite a bit of one-on-one chemistry tutoring.

Many students approach college chemistry courses with caution. For some, a year of freshman general chemistry is mandatory for their major. Majors such as pre-med, physical therapy, and veterinary medicine require organic chemistry in addition to general chemistry. As my specialty lies in organic chemistry, I have experience teaching both general and organic chemistry students..

From my perspective, general chemistry is as much a mathematics course as it is a science course for many first-year students. A significant portion of general chemistry involves establishing and solving problems that necessitate fundamental algebraic manipulations and calculations. Skills such as balancing equations, maintaining units throughout calculations, and understanding significant figures are essential to master. Additionally, there is the challenge of learning the new vocabulary.

Students who managed to avoid chemistry in high school sometimes found themselves treading water in college chemistry and were afraid of taking two 5 credit hour hits to their GPAs. Most pushed on and got through it. General chemistry is a foundation course and is critical for further pursuits in fields related to the use of chemicals. Unfortunately, a year of gen chem doesn’t really make a person able to function as an independent chemist. It is helpful, though, for technicians in a lab doing routine chemical tests.

Gen chem is to chemistry as The Hobbit is to The Lord of the Rings– it is the necessary prelude to a larger story.

A common problem I encountered while teaching chemistry was the desire of some students to give up hope of ever “getting it”. They would hold off attending office hours to discuss their difficulties until it was too far down the semester timeline. This was usually after a few botched regular exams or a low midterm grade. Frequently the struggling student was having trouble with or neglecting the assigned homework from the text.

Now and then you’d run into a prof who had performance expectations that even they might not have met as an undergrad. They’ll strut around acting as though they were singlehandedly maintaining “proper” academic ideals. Who knows, maybe they had a point. You can try to enthuse everyone using words and pictures, but inevitably there are those who are utterly disinterested, inept or just anxious to put chemistry behind them.

In retrospect, I should have been more direct in calling in more students to office hours who were in grade trouble early in the term. Unfortunately, like many other profs I sometimes subscribed to the sink or swim approach to college education where unsuitable students are culled from the herd. It is a sort of Darwinistic mindset that is easy to fall into. In the end, we have to give all students a fair chance or even a second chance to earn the credentials that the institution confers.

Colleges are organizations that award credentials to verify achievement in meeting or exceeding educational standards set by in-house professors. It tells people that you completed what you started: you navigated a complex maze of intellectual achievements and came out the other side a success.

For any given subject there are always those who struggle with it to some extent. It could be from simple boredom, distractions from real life or the comprehending of difficult material. It may be that the subject just isn’t for them. For myself, I struggled with a foreign language and eventually gave up. I needed full immersion and that wasn’t going to happen. I still regret giving up.

One problem that can often be addressed, however, is the matter of struggle. It seems that many students are not accustomed to struggling with learning. All of us have learned particular subjects successfully because it “just fit” our cognitive abilities, interest or perhaps it was brilliantly presented to us. Or it was a special time in our lives when we were uniquely receptive. It could very well be that previous exposure to the subject was a bit shallow with grade inflation, leading to overestimation of their abilities.

Unfortunately for some, the very necessity of struggle convinces them that the subject is beyond their abilities. They come to believe that if the subject does not immediately stick or appear obvious, then they might as well give up because they will never “get it” along with a collapse of self-esteem.

Giving up on a subject early-on could allow them to switch directions in their education with less time lost and perhaps they would be relieved by that. In this case, giving up is just making a better choice based on experience. Regardless, students should be unburdened early on of the idea that struggle is a predictor of failure. In reality, most learning involves struggle at least to some extent.

Remedies for Struggle

Reading the assigned chapters several times is helpful. First pass, scan the content for a general idea of where the topic is going. A careful reading next with a focus on the example problems is very helpful. Try to understand the example problems and the reasoning presented. Next work on the problem set. If there is time, a third reading can help to cement in the concepts in the chapter. Before going on, work on the assigned problems. Open the solutions manual only if stuck. Struggle with the problem a bit. Success with solving assigned problems can be extremely helpful for a student.

If laboring alone isn’t helping, some schools have tutoring resources available. If not, there are often tutors who will charge on an hourly basis. A few hours of tutoring may be all it takes to get back on track. Sometimes there may be study partners from your class who can study with you. Then again, office hours with your prof or TA can help you over some rough spots. The point is- Struggle!

When I was writing exams, I would look at the example problems in the text as well as the assigned problems. I chose the problems to assign because I felt that they got to the heart of the concepts I held as important to the subject at the level of the content. I would use the assigned problems or those from lecture to write problems using different substances where a reaction would lead to an unambiguous answer. It’s ok to write some questions that require bit of logic to solve, but you can’t turn the exam into an intelligence test.

I once taught a course in chemistry for non-majors. These were students who had tried to get into Geology for Poets or Astronomy but couldn’t get in. They were trapped into taking chemistry for their science requirement for graduation! Early on, a few “representatives” of the class cornered me after a lecture and informed me that “everyone” expected true/false questions on the exams. Pausing, I said I would give them true/false questions, but they would get 1 point for a correct answer, 0 points for no answer, and -1 point for an incorrect answer. The lesson was that if you don’t know something it might be better to just be quiet. After a single exam they never mentioned true/false questions again.

Students eventually realize that chemistry is a highly vertical subject. The more advanced and interesting concepts are built upon or knitted together from those learned earlier. Later coursework will assume that the student has a grasp of content from earlier prerequisite courses. Thirty-one years later the 95 course evaluations from that Catholic women’s college still sit in an unopened envelope in my office.

Find a way to deal with anxiety. Exercise or find a councilor, psychologist, or psychiatrist for help. Anxiety is “druggable”, that is there are meds for it that are very effective. I’m sure there are exceptions, but a family practice doc can’t go very far down the road in treating anxiety. A psychiatrist can fine tune and mix the individual meds to best suit you. It really works.

Most importantly, the student should not EVER get behind in the coursework. It might even be better to drop the class than try to make up for much lost time. The normal rate of chemistry content flow to be absorbed is already high. To have to make up for time lost while also keeping up with the current content flow is often impossible.

Finally, consider that struggle just means that you have to put forth effort to learn. True learning means that your neurons are making new connections in your brain, not just images of something new. To have learned means that your brain has found a way to take diverse inputs and assemble them into part of your consciousness. Sometimes it isn’t easy, but persistence is the key.

Uselase Activator trans,trans-Frogadiene

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Poltroon University, Guapo, Arizona. Poltroon University is proud to announce the discovery of a formerly vexing biochemical signal pathway leading to personality excursions in certain individuals. Assistant Professor of Molecular Biology Dr. Frederick “One Eye” McMurray, Ph.D., of the Department of Molecular and Tubular Biology led the research. McMurray has pinpointed the signaling pathway leading to uncontrolled blathering about certain kinds of trivia. Previously thought to be a variety of Tourette’s Syndrome, uncontrolled and prolonged outbursts of sports trivia- baseball and bowling trivia is common in the US and The Bahamas.

Poltroon University Clearly Distinguished Professor of Obscure Natural Product Chemistry, Dr. B.L. Bowelson, has discovered a new variety of psychoactive substances while surveying the jungles of central New Worcestershire, Africa. Interested in studying a frog whose skin is known for treating the dreaded jungle halitosis, Bowelson brought samples back to Poltroon and began to extract skin samples. After years of tedium a significant quantity of the previously unknown substance Frogadiene was obtained.

Isomeric forms of Frogadiene. Source: Poltroon University office of public relations.

The major isomer, trans,trans-Frogadiene, was found to be the most efficacious form in badger halitosis studies. The substance works by inhibiting the stinky and hazardous hydrogen sulfide produced by sulfur reducing bacteria. Another intriguing effect of the Frogadiene in the forest inhabitants is the enhanced ability to participate in convivial discussions. For a day or two, village victims of jungle halitosis were able to sit with family and friends without the foul breath. After imbibing a tea made from frog scraps, for a time the once blabbering halitosis victims were able to converse without the usual stream of useless information.

Noting the increased, though temporary, ability to avoid outbursts of trivia, McMurray set out to understand the molecular pharmacology of Frogadiene. The first target was the membrane enzyme uselase. This protein was already connected with stimulating the trivia peduncle of the human brain. By maceration in pH 6.9438 buffer of 30 freshly deceased brain donors, a small quantity of uselase was isolated.

The uselase isolate was treated with synthetic trans,trans-Frogadiene and crystals were produced of the complex. X-ray crystallography clearly showed the Frogadiene bound to the enzyme. Later it was found to be an activator of the protease enzyme uselase. In the presence of Frogadiene the enzyme is phosphorylated and passes into the intracellular medium. Once inside, the activated enzyme cleaves DNA which eventually leads to the production of the neurotransmitter monotonine. This neurotransmitter suppresses the urge to issue torrents of trivia.

The pharmaceutical company Azidoberg is in negotiations with Poltroon in an effort to buy the patent.

Prostate Cancer, Round 2

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Note: What follows are my observations and information from my oncologists and what is scraped off the interwebs. I try to seek information from either primary research literature, medical textbooks or from credible secondary sources. For treatment, I stick to a university medical institution and medical school faculty managing my treatment. I tend not to believe in dietary or nutraceutical approaches. It has been my observation that the origins of cancer are biochemically different from curative or preventative biochemistry. In other words, preventative measures by diet or supplements are mechanistically distinct from the treatment of cancer cells. Divine intervention is not testable, driven by faithful wishing and is supported only by anecdote. I believe that if something truly happens in the universe, it will have an observable mechanism and therefore be measurable.

Oh yes, if you’re squeamish with talking about your prostate because it’s part of your reproductive apparatus, get over it. Part of successfully living with cancer is being able to talk about and learning from it. I’d rather die at least knowing about it.

Because of modern medicine, my experience with both throat and prostate cancer has not been a rocket sled ride to the hereafter. It’s been said that some cancers can be thought of as a treatable, chronic condition and for me that has been true thus far. As luck would have it, my throat cancer was viral in origin and consequently highly treatable by IMRT irradiation and cisplatin. Since 2013 I have had yearly checkups that have all indicated no visible return of the cancer. Since I go to a university medical center, I have had medical students and various head and neck residents also peering down my throat from a camera threaded through my nose picturing my gullet in all of its pink glistening majesty.

The prostate story is a bit different. Before diagnosis the cells had already left the prostate (stage 4) and were judged to be Gleason 9 by histopathology. This was unfortunate. Outside of the prostate capsule they began to wander around through the lymphatic system, lodging in the lymph nodes. Since there was no unified target for surgery or concentrated radiation, The cutters were not called in. Elvis had left the building. After IMRT radiation of the prostate, seminal vesicles and suspected nearby lymph nodes along with 2 years of hormone ablation, my PSA returned to 0.01 ng/mL. Things had taken a turn for the better.

But, the other shoe had to drop eventually. After 9 years, my stage 4 prostate cancer has begun to ramp up steeply. The PSA curve over time (below) is looking more and more like a hockey stick. The borderline PSA value for treatment is 4.00 ng/mL. When it pops up over that value the oncologists begin to take notice. Whether this is based on some statistical mortality data or because of what insurance companies will likely cover is unclear to me. Importantly, PSA may also indicate non-cancerous conditions like prostatitis and benign prostatic hyperplasia. PSA is only an indicator and alone is not definitive. Biopsy is needed to verify and grade the tissue. Of this whole adventure, the biopsy was the worst of it for me. During the procedure, the urologist asked questions about my hobbies -his was carpentry- but I was too distracted to talk about airplanes.

Stage 4 is indicated by histology and backed up by the PET scan revealing radioactive (avid) spots outside of the prostate. Thankfully, this time around nothing was found in the head & neck, chest, prostate or bones. That was good news.

However, the PET/CT scan did show the presence of 5 or so avid lymph glands along the aorta from below the chest to above the prostate.

A proper prostate cancer diagnosis requires more than just a PSA value. An abnormal prostate is detected by digital examination by a urologist and the presence of cancer cells is confirmed by biopsy by a histologist.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-17.png
My PSA curve.

But, wait a minute. Exactly what is PSA and what does it do? According to Wikipedia, Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) is a peptidase enzyme (a protein) secreted by the epithelial cells of the prostate gland. It’s immediate job is to liquify the semen in the seminal coagulum, allowing sperm to swim freely. It is also thought to be involved in dissolving cervical mucus, allowing sperm to enter the uterus. Amounts of PSA above a certain threshold are not normally found in the blood. Elevated PSA is associated with prostate cancer. It’s just a marker.

The glycoprotein PSA, prostate specific antigen. It is an enzyme of the serine protease variety. A protease will cleave peptide bonds in the amino acid backbone of a protein.

Serine protease enzymes like PSA have a serine amino acid in the active site of the enzyme which is capable of connecting temporarily with a carbonyl carbon of a (C=O) peptide bond. Since proteins are long chains of peptide bonds, cleaving a peptide bond snips the protein into smaller pieces.

Chemists are all about the mechanisms of chemical transformations and the following has been proposed for a serine protease.

Source: Wikipedia. Graphics by Gaussling.

All this said, it turns out that when castration resistance sets in, things begin take a turn for the worse. Prostate cancer cells begin to accumulate in the bone marrow, they begin to interact and develop into tumors that are essentially beyond the reach of treatment. The spine is a common place for them to go, but they can spread to other organs as well.

Of particular interest is the spread of prostate cancer to bone. Prostate cancer cells have an affinity for bone marrow tissue. In my case, the PET/CT scans gave no indication of being present in the head & neck, the chest or bones. That’s good news. In my first round of treatment, I was given 18F-Glucose diagnostic for the PET scan. This time I was given the more receptor-selective 18F PSMA diagnostic called Pylarify. While it is selective for a particular receptor on the cancer cell, it also shows up elsewhere in the body in the PET scan as a result of circulation and transport out of the system. Receptor-specific drugs will bind to the intended receptor, but only after they wander around and stumble into it. This is made less than random due to active transport or solubility partitioning. The effectiveness also benefits by resistance to metabolism and excretion.

Pylarify is a kind of pseudo-peptide containing two modified amino acids, lysine and glutamic acid, joined at the nitrogen atoms as a urea linkage. The key step is the nucleophilic aromatic substitution of trimethylammonium by 18F on the pyridine ring. The presence of abundant heteroatoms (nitrogen and oxygen) groups is not uncommon for pharmaceuticals and is absolutely ordinary for proteins. Heteroatoms serve as hydrogen bond donors and acceptors which is critical in biochemical transformations. A hydrogen bond donor can reversibly bind to a hydrogen bond acceptor and keep the molecules in close proximity long enough for a transformation as well as participate in it.

Sarah Piron, Jeroen Verhoeven, Christian Vanhove, Filip De Vos, Recent advancements in 18F-labeled PSMA targeting PET radiopharmaceuticals, Nuclear Medicine and Biology, Volumes 106–107, 2022,
Pages 29-51, ISSN 0969-8051, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.nucmedbio.2021.12.005.

The interaction of prostate cancer cells in the bone marrow environment is fairly complex and is well described by Zhang X. Interactions between cancer cells and bone microenvironment promote bone metastasis in prostate cancer. Cancer Commun (Lond). 2019 Nov 21;39(1):76. doi: 10.1186/s40880-019-0425-1. PMID: 31753020; PMCID: PMC6873445.

The interaction of prostate cancer cells with bone marrow cells is a topic for another day.

Incinerating plastics for electric power

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Abstract: I’m going to make a pitch for incinerating plastic. Yes, it will indeed produce CO2. But as we go merrily down the reduced carbon footprint path, I think it is reasonable to exempt certain activities from stringent reduction. One of them is incineration of waste. It can be done efficiently while generating electrical power and can be put to use in getting rid of BTU-laden waste combustibles like plastic.

Synthetic polymers, i.e. plastics, long ago rose to a high level of production due to demand. In particular, plastics like polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), polyvinyl acetate (PVA), polyurethanes, polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA), various polyamides and adhesives are produced at incomprehensible scale. Within several of these major polymer varieties are their copolymers. LDPE is a good example. Low density polyethylene is a copolymer of ethylene and alpha-olefins like 1-butene, 1-hexene, and 1-octene. Placing the olefin group (C=C) exclusively at the 1-position requires some large-scale wizardry as internal olefins are thermodynamically more stable. Generally, commodity scale alpha-olefins have the terminal olefin put in place as they are made, not afterwards. These comonomers interfere with crystal formation within the bulk polymer. This has a large effect on many things including melt temperature, melt strength, stiffness, glass transition temperature, puncture resistance, tensile strength and lower density.

||| Side Note: Alpha olefins have other uses besides polymer manufacture. They are a crucial raw material for plasticisers, soaps/detergents, lubricants and oilfield chemicals. Interestingly, ethylene is a ripening hormone used by fruit.

The low unit price of plastic products like films, food packaging and medical packaging along with steady marketing has conditioned the consumer to expect such goods as disposable. And the plastics industry is happy to fill that expectation. Single use applications fill homes, businesses, hospitals … everywhere. Single use plastic waste also fills landfills, the countryside, waterways, and increasingly the oceans.

Recycling of plastic waste is complicated. Plastics may be made of just the pure homopolymer with only a single repeat monomer or along with a copolymer. A blend of mixed polymer waste may also contain a dog’s lunch of pigments, soot, intumescent additives, plasticizers, glue residues or labels, multiple layers of different polymers and UV blockers- components that you are unlikely to want to transfer into the final product. Even if you neglect the additive problem, there is always the immiscibility of different polymers. Yes, mixed polymers do not always form a homogeneous melt. This is a problem for everyone down the value chain.

Making polymers

While the end-use consumer is the final customer of the producer’s polymer, it is the converters who order the resin pellets directly from the polymer producers or wholesalers. Those who design the plastic article may or may not do a deep dive into the exact brand and grade of plastic to be used. Certainly there many articles (toys) that can be made from a variety of plastic brands and specifications where buyer input may be unknowledgeable or minimal. For many buyers of finished plastic goods, like everything price is likely to be the major parameter.

Users of performance polymers for demanding applications requiring particular polymer specifications will be more specific in their requirements.

The converters blow continuous films or do the injection or blow molding for those who set the final product specs. The converters buy their raw polymer on the basis of specified properties. One measure of the suitability of a particular polymer grade relates to the torque required to produce the maximum number of widgets per hour from the extruder. The converter’s business economics depend on throughput. A polymer that is otherwise wondrous to behold but its melt is too viscous will be problematic for the converter if it requires considerable torque from the extrusion equipment.

Make no mistake, retailers like Home Depot or Menard’s neither know or care about polymer specifications, nor do the end users. The companies who distribute wholesale products are specialists in warehousing and shipping and are unlikely to know polyurethane from HDPE because they don’t need to. The engineers who design and specify properties for the manufacturer are the key decision makers in the value chain.

The plastic manufacturer produces a polymer to give a set of particular physical properties. The converter takes the polymer pellets and combines them with additives, if any, to meet particular specifications. Polymer properties depend to a large extent on their thermal history. Once melted and cooled a polymer’s physical properties can change. Heating and cooling can lead to new phase transitions not present in the pellets. One change could be the glass transition temperature where the rigidity of a polymer changes from glassy to rubbery. Imagine a plastic coffee cup with a glass transition temperature of 75 oC trying to hold 87 oC coffee. Such a cup sags when the coffee is poured in. This is no good. The phase changes like glass transition temperature or melting temperatures can be identified with Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC).

Synthetic polymers such as PE are everywhere in our lives. These polymers are made from crude oil or, especially in the US, natural gas feedstocks. Collectively we consume and throw away massive amounts of polymer waste. The effort to recycle plastic in the US has largely been a failure due in part to insufficient segregation and cleaning. Closing the loop with a strong demand for recycled plastics has also faltered. Apart from recycling, what else can be done with it?

Plastics as fuel

Sending a metric ton of polyethylene plastic to the landfill produced the same energy as sending a ton of gasoline or diesel to the landfill in terms of potential energy. Synthetic polymers are either entirely hydrocarbon in composition or mostly so with some oxygen, nitrogen or chlorine thrown in. The fundamental fact is that these polymers are high in BTU content. The downside is that they ignite poorly due to the lack of volatiles. The polymers have to be thermally “cracked” or depolymerized to form volatile components that have a lower flash point. This cracking requires higher ignition temperatures than liquid or gas fuels.

Specific energy density refers to the amount of chemical energy per kilogram of material. In the table below the top three listings are pure hydrocarbons. Coal contains hydrocarbons but also minerals that do not contribute to overall combustion energy.

SubstanceSpecific Energy (MJ/kg)
Diesel Fuel45.6
Methane55.6
Polyethylene (PE)46.3
Coal, Bituminous24 – 35
Specific Energy. Source: Wikipedia.

In liquid combustion, it is the vapor above the liquid that burns. All liquids have a certain fraction of substance in gas phase at equilibrium above it at a given temperature. The flash point is the temperature in which the vapor can sustain combustion. Here is the official definition-

The flash point of a material is the “lowest liquid temperature at which, under certain standardized conditions, a liquid gives produces vapors in a quantity such as to be capable of forming an ignitable vapor/air mixture”. (EN 60079-10-1)

Source: Wikipedia.

In normal use, flashpoint (Fp) is used to gauge the ease of ignition of a substance when exposed to air. The Fp allows us to partition high hazard from lower hazard combustible materials high flashpoint liquids like motor oil pose less of a fire risk than does gasoline or propane. In the Globally Harmonized System (GHS) of Classification and Labeling of Chemicals,-

Flammable liquids are categorized by flammability, from Category 1 with a flash point < 23 °C and initial boiling point < 35 °C to Category 4 with flash point > 60 °C and < 93 °C.

Naturally, in the US we do it a bit differently with categories Flammable and Combustible–

Flammable– Flash point < 100 oF (38 oC), e.g. gasoline, methanol, acetone, natural gas

Combustible– Flash point > 100 oF (38 oC), e.g., paper, organic dusts, cooking oils

The US system is easier to remember than is the GHS but is perhaps a bit imprecise.

Plastic combustion

Why all of this vapor pressure stuff? It turns out that most plastics like polyethylene or polyethylene terephthalate (PET) have insignificant vapor pressures at room temperature. This is due to the extremely long chain lengths of the polymer and its subsequent high molecular weight. Considerable energy is needed to loosen these polymers from the liquid phase into the gas phase. So, the trick is the use pyrolysis to crack the long chains into shorter and more volatile pieces. This can be called destructive distillation like the process used for making coal gas. But this requires an input of energy to raise the temperature high enough to do the cracking.

Source: Kanhar, A.H.; Chen, S.; Wang, F. Incineration Fly Ash and Its Treatment to Possible Utilization: A Review. Energies 2020, 13, 6681. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13246681

Plastic pyrolysis is conducted at temperatures between 300 oC and 1000 oC with residence times between 0.5 seconds to 100 minutes, depending on the temperature. YouTube has videos of people using homemade pyrolysis reactors to produce a diesel-like composition. The thermally cracked polymer produces vapors that are condensed and recovered. There are a few examples of homebrew crackers that vent the exhaust subsurface into water to condense the vapors. Seems clever until you realize that when the cracker begins to cool, the fluid in the condenser tank will siphon back into the still hot cracker and flash explosively into vapor. An inline trap could easily prevent this.

In 2007, EPA compared waste-to-energy emissions between 1990 and 2005; it found decreases of 24 percent in nitrogen oxide, 88 percent in sulfur dioxide, 99 percent in dioxins and 96 percent in mercury.

Columbia Climate School

In addition to heat for steam production to drive electrical generators, pyrolysis of plastics will indeed produce CO2, hydrochloric acid (from PVC) as well as ash and char. Properly done, the ash, char and hydrochloric acid can be effectively scrubbed. Some thought will have to be given to the ultimate disposition of solid residues which will contain what remains of the mineral additives found in some plastics. Some may not be friendly.

It is hard for me to imagine the world completely shutting down petroleum-based energy resources. CO2 emissions do not need to be totally extinguished. A sustainable CO2 output has been put forward by James Hansen, et al., and at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. They suggest that an initial target of CO2 levels below 350 ppm would likely be sustainable. The caveat is that continued research to refine a sustainable level.

By merely existing on Earth, humans will continue to produce air, water and soil pollution. We’ll continue to burn fossil fuels to some extent and continue to belch combustion gases into the air. I think this is a given. Humans will continue to collect raw materials for manufacturing. A mass movement to live a more modest, low consumption zero carbon footprint life is unlikely to occur. But, how about just a lower carbon footprint?

The point of this little pyrolysis excursion is that plastics are a potential energy resource that we wantonly toss into the landfill or in the street. Pyrolysis always produces solid waste residues which must be disposed of, so waste is still being produced, but a smaller volume than the plastic waste. As usual, the costs and benefits of the process depend on the balance of input costs vs output value.

As of March 2024, the CO2 level is a 425 ppm. We should remember that we do not have to drop the atmospheric CO2 to the level of the year 1800, just below some value like 350 ppm according to Columbia University. What we can do now is to begin living a somewhat lower consumption life. Instead of driving 5 miles to 7-Eleven in your F-150 to buy Miller Lite, cigarettes and lottery tickets, consider making all of your purchases next time you gas up. Consider backing off just a bit on plastic consumption.

Oh, and shut off the damned lights when you vacate a room. Unplug “wall-wart” device chargers that are not in use. They draw a trickle charge even when not in use. Have an “instant-on” TV or stereo not in use? Unplug it. The instant-on feature uses electricity to stay instantly ready for you. If it doesn’t “click” or it switches on/off by remote, it is likely an instant-on device. There. I’m finished now.

Volt Typhoon in Place to Deny US Infrastructure

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An April 18, 2024, Reuters article by Christopher Bing reports on an address given at Vanderbilt University by FBI Director Christopher Wray. Wray disclosed information from Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), National Security Agency (NSA), and FBI that hackers linked to the People’s republic of China (PRC) government have established access to US companies in a campaign called “Volt Typhoon”. The goal is to produce chaos and panic in the US at a time of their choosing by interfering with telecommunications, energy, water and other critical sectors. The article says that as many as 23 US pipeline companies have been targeted.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is well known to engage in various levels of shady cyberwarfare on the rest of the world either directly or with other players. Hybrid warfare is a conflict that considers propaganda, misinformation and cyber-attacks as part of the spectrum of total war. In this case, cyber spying and disruption are part of it. Their cyberwarfare activity is not only about theft of intellectual property, spying or causing immediate damage. They are also engaged in placing sleeper code with the target for activation at their leisure. One particularly insidious action is referred to as “Living Off the Land“.

Living off the land is a technique that evades detection by using intermediate infrastructure to shield hostile activity such as command and control activity from local ISP’s.

The actor has executed the following command to gather information about local drives [T1082]: cmd.exe /C “wmic path win32_logicaldisk get caption,filesystem,freespace,size,volumename” This command does not require administrative credentials to return results. The command uses a command prompt [T1059.003] to execute a Windows Management Instrumentation Command Line (WMIC) query, collecting information about the storage devices on the local host, including drive letter, file system (e.g., new technology file system [NTFS]), free space and drive size in bytes, and an optional volume name. Windows Management Instrumentation (WMI) is a built-in Windows tool that allows a user to access management information from hosts in an enterprise environment. The command line version of WMI is called WMIC. Source: CISA, People’s Republic of China State-Sponsored Cyber Actor Living off the Land to Evade Detection

The breadth of Volt Typhoon is much greater than mentioned here. For further information please consult the CISA source.

One particular time of their choosing is likely to be as the PRC prepares to invade Taiwan. Sowing chaos and the denial of resources for the US could alter the outcome of an invasion of Taiwan in PRC’s favor. Taiwan (Formosa) is the part of China that did not fall to the communist takeover under Mao Zedong.

An Eye for an Eye: The Right of Requital

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[Note: I’m about to make a mistake. I am commenting on the Israeli/Hamas conflict on the internets for the whole world to see.]

Basic to the Israel/Hamas conflict is the general matter of who has the right to reoccupy ancestral land. In the Levant, possession of the land has changed hands many, many times over history. Today, Russia is claiming that it has the right to “re-absorb” Ukraine back into what is now the greater Russian empire. The Chinese Communist Party claims that Taiwan belongs to the mainland Chinese. Conflicts over entitlement to territory is a persistent threat to global peace, especially now that nuclear-tipped missiles can cross great distances in a short time or can suddenly pop out from under coastal waters.

The bloody war between Hamas and Israel drags on. I think a few forget that the conflict between Palestinians and Israeli Zionists has been raging for many years. The current war is only the latest outburst and a particularly bloody one at that. The right of requital, or the principle of an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth is the guiding theory there.

Prior to this war I’ll admit that I was somewhat biased toward Israel because, even as a non-theist, I find their culture generally agreeable. But the bombing and mass extermination of civilians in Gaza as well as the embargo on food and medicine getting into Gaza is beyond any justification. Having been a victim does not give anyone the right to victimize other parties. An eye-for-an-eye is a specious argument.

Destroying whole buildings, neighborhoods, cities or territories with weapons where civilians may be present could be an indiscriminate attack. A quote from Indiscriminate Attack in Wikipedia-

“In international humanitarian law and international criminal law, an indiscriminate attack is a military attack that fails to distinguish between legitimate military targets and protected persons. Indiscriminate attacks strike both legitimate military and protected objects alike, thus violating the principle of distinction between combatants and protected civilians. They differ from direct (or deliberate) attacks against protected civilians and encompass cases in which the perpetrators are indifferent as to the nature of the target, cases in which the perpetrators use tactics or weapons that are inherently indiscriminate (e.g., cluster munitions, anti-personnel mines, nuclear weapons), and cases in which the attack is disproportionate, because it is likely to cause excessive protected civilian casualties and damages to protected objects.” Source: Wikipedia.

“Indiscriminate attacks are prohibited both by the Geneva Conventions Additional Protocol I (1977) and by customary international humanitarian law. They constitute a war crime under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, and the perpetrators can be prosecuted and held responsible in international and domestic courts.” Source: Wikipedia.

“In 1977, Protocol I was adopted as an amendment to the Geneva Conventions, prohibiting the deliberate or indiscriminate attack of civilians and civilian objects in international armed conflicts; the attacking force must take precautions and steps to spare the lives of civilians and civilian objects as possible. Although ratified by 173 countries, the only countries that are currently not signatories to Protocol I are the United States, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, India, and Turkey.” Source: Wikipedia.

What about the Geneva Conventions relating to civilians? There have been 4 Geneva Conventions. The Fourth Geneva Convention covers humanitarian protections of protected civilians in a war zone.

Even if a nation is not a signatory or it hasn’t been ratified, from my western point of view the Geneva Conventions seem to outline the shape of decency, kindness and humanity.

Irrespective of the Geneva Conventions as at least an optional guide, neither combatants are concerned with the guidelines. Whether or not the Geneva Conventions could even include organizations like Hamas and others is unclear (to me).

I’ve noticed that social media is filling up with anti-Israel content. I’ve given up trying to understand who the more righteous party in this conflict is. I am unable to support either side. The attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, was obviously a savage orgy of murder. Hamas had to have known that this act would provoke a retaliation that would affect Palestinian civilians.

I’ve long admired Israel because it has built a modern thriving civilization from the ground up. But, it has done so on homelands claimed and occupied by others. As an outside observer I’m sad for the Palestinians for their long suffering under Israeli control since 1948. The Israelis have built an apartheid zone and have confined a large number of Palestinians to the tiny Gaza strip and the West Bank. On the other side, however, numerous extremist groups have taken hold and shelter in Palestinian territories with the aim of killing all Israelis and have been doing so intermittently for years. These groups have received support from Iranian leaders and other players making the conflict a proxy war. Iran wishes for nothing less than demolition of the state of Israel and installing a far-reaching Islamic caliphate. They seem prepared for the long game. Just connect the dots.

Now, the US has bombed Yemen to prevent the Houthis from further attacking international shipping. A coalition of forces, principally the UK and US, has been intercepting drones and cruise missiles aimed at Israeli targets and ships intending to transit the Suez Canal. The Houthis, who have been engaged in a lengthy civil war in Yemen, have been building their military bona fides to further their ties with Iran, or so some say. The boldness of Iranian provocation continues to rise. Who knows what will happen after they test their first nuclear weapon?

From within the Hamas frame of reference, perhaps a big provocation followed by a big retaliation might rally Islamic nations against Israel and its sponsors?? As I understand it, what isn’t helping their cause is the bad taste Palestinians left in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon in the past. There is a sense that to accept Palestinian immigration is to accept a population carrying militancy with it.

Israel’s response to the attack was to retaliate with shock and awe in Gaza in an effort to exterminate Hamas once and for all. From within the Israeli frame of reference, there is a certain cold military logic to their strategy in greater Gaza. However, whatever support Israel may have had from the 10/7/23 attack has withered. Israel cannot shake the historical facts of its founding- that it was established by displacing Palestinians from their home territory. Palestinians are still furious about Zionist colonization. Palestinians were simply removed from their homes and driven out. The same thing is happening in slow motion in the West Bank. While the world’s attention was elsewhere, Gaza was cemented into an open-air prison camp far short of liberties that we in the US take for granted.

Unfortunately for Israel, Hamas represents a political belief system strongly coupling homeland with Islam. Extinguishing a belief amounts to long term Wack-A-Mole. Palestinians are in desperate straits and have no place to call their own. In their abysmal location in Gaza, why should they stop the struggle?

Unfortunately for Hamas, the State of Israel in its present location is a long-held dream come true for Zionists. Israelis have nowhere to go even if they did give up the land. Israelis will fight to the death rather than handing over what they believe is their ancestral homeland. Israel is a nuclear state and will likely use their nuclear weapons if state collapse is threatened. Isn’t that what every nuclear state threatens to do?

What we see is a never-ending cycle of retribution. One side is brutalized and eventually strikes back.  Many take the view that past Israeli or Palestinian victimhood does not justify continued victimization. The killing of non-combatants is simply unjustifiable and must stop. The Palestinian death toll is over 33,000, most of whom are reportedly women and children. The Islamic world will not soon forget this assault on Gaza and the role of the US.

The role of the US in this conflict is troubling. We’ve always been supporters of Israel. Israel and Turkey are claimed to be the only countries in the Levant resembling a democracy. There is strong political support from Jewish and Christian Zionist communities in the US. The magnitude of this translates into hard support for Israel in terms of funding and weapons. Israel’s soft power is US backing in international matters including military support.

For the US to support the Palestinians would be taken as an affront to the Israelis and would be political suicide for any US administration taking such a position. Israel enjoys considerable support in the US and such a stance would not survive. Obviously.

I am a supporter of the Biden administration and the direction he has taken the country generally. I agree there is a logic to long term support of democracies around the world. However, Biden’s public and unwavering support of Netanyahu’s Israel has been, I believe, a strategic mistake during this conflict. There are indications in the news that there is a quiet effort behind the curtains to convince Netanyahu that the mass killing of Gazans is the wrong choice. Recently Biden and Netanyahu have spoken and signs that the severity on Gazans lightening is apparent.

I’m an American and I agree with and support our democratic values emphasizing life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. So, to militarily and politically support a nation that is exterminating civilians, democracy or not, is immoral.

US policy toward both the state of Israel and Palestine/Gaza/West Bank must undergo major recalibration to a more balanced approach in the region. The Palestinian demand for the return of their homeland did not suddenly fall from the sky. It has been there from the beginning. The State of Israel is the result of documented actions taken by the United Nations following the expiration of the 1917 Balfour Declaration. US President Harry Truman was the first head of state to formally recognize Israel as the legitimate Jewish state in 1948. Truman did express misgivings, however.

America’s credibility in backing a righteous path has been damaged by our own expeditionary zeal in post WWII. The big skeleton in the American closet is that in our history is full of examples of appropriating territory from the Native Americans and our appalling treatment of them. Plainly, they were here first. Settlers pushed them off their land, encouraged by the government, and confined them in ever diminishing remote spaces. The point is that the US can hardly lecture Israel on the way their state was formed. Israel is a technologically advanced nation with many accomplishments to their credit. But, in the political choices made before and after 1948 leading to nationhood, they have set themselves up for this conflict.

In history there are endless examples of conquest and defeat. Lands are taken by invading armies, people die and the social order tipped over. Over time, conquerors are eventually conquered themselves, people die and yield to new military and political forces. Borders and power shift, people die and settle for a time, but eventually a new order arrives, people die and things shift again. This has been seen in history all over the world and it will continue to happen. The Palestinians have lost their homeland and might just have to live with it as so many others have done in the last 10,000 years. Perhaps one day what is left of the Native Americans population will reclaim North America after some kind of large-scale apocalypse wipes out the colonist population.

It is difficult to see how Israel and the Palestinians can come to some sort of armistice without Israel surrendering some land and the Palestinians committing to less than full repossession of the land.

Taking the cosmic viewpoint, the human inhabitants of Earth are wrecking the biosphere, raising the temperature of the atmosphere, altering the climate, and while all of this is happening, murdering each other over beliefs and notions. Normally I might have said “let ’em go at it”. But we’re all on the same small speck of dust in empty space. There is nowhere else to go.