Apparently, the Chinese have decided to shelve plans for a manned moon landing by 2020. According to XinhuaNet, there are no plans for activity beyond the landing of a rover and the return of samples by 2017. Officials state that the technology for a manned program is still out of reach and that the risk and expense are too high for a 2020 landing.
This is an interesting development. I think there was some real interst in China for putting taikonauts on the moon. No doubt, the infrastructure and development needed for such an effort became apparent. There is considerable prestige for any nation that manages to return the crew safely from a moon landing. But the pragmatic characters in the governing party surely recognize that the Giant Leap for Mankind has already been done and that resources are better spent on other “firsts”.
Other than operating a kind of Lunar Ice Station Zebra where a few lonely scientists would bivouac in metal pressure cans out in the hard vacuum and cosmic rays, I can’t think of a compelling reason for anyone to reside there for too long. For the value proposition, it’s hard to come up with any known mineral wealth up (over?) there that would justify the cost of transport. Generally, only pharmaceuticals have the extreme $/kg that might cover the expenses. Mumbai, Newark, and Shanghai are much closer. But who knows, maybe they’ll find a big vein of rhodium (US$6375/toz) on the surface.
Planetary scientists and atronomers would make good use of a lunar research station. But funding it would almost certainly require the shutdown of many other kinds of research here on the Good Earth. But what else would we do there? Take pictures? Wave the flag?
Going to a moon station would be like going to jail. You would be confined to a cramped pressure vessel for the duration and Death could visit in new ways and old. What if you get a toothache? Would NASA have to mobilize a rescue?
What real military leverage would any country get from a moon base other than defending the moon? If you could afford a military moon base, you could also afford a fleet of nuclear submarines that could hammer any patch of real estate on earth you desire, and maybe bounce the rubble a few times.
I suppose there is planetary tourism. A couple of weeks in the ISS will cost the plutocrat down the street a cool US$20 million. Imagine what One Small Step on the moon would cost. Maybe Richard Branson is working on a package deal- rountrip space fare (coach seats, Virgin Galactic) and a week in the fabulous Sheraton Green Cheese resort for US$50 million. Some restrictions apply.