Category Archives: Business

Fools and Randomness

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There is an interesting book out by Nassim Nicholas Taleb called Fooled by Randomness, 2005, Random House (!!?), 2005, ISBN 0-8129-7521-9.  To get right to the point, Taleb has combined cognitive science and statistics with finance. 

There is nothing new about cognitive scientists using statistics.  But there is  something distinctly recent, at least, about finance people thinking about how cognitive science and statistics might be applied to how we approach investment thinking. I don’t mean the cookbook use of cognitive science in investments, rather, I mean how we think about investment risk.  The theme of Taleb’s book is concerned with how we think about randomness.

The reader can form her/his own opinion about Taleb’s ideas.  Speaking for myself, I am intrigued with his thesis that many “experts” in economics and investments are largely deluded when it comes to perceiving risk. Taleb suggests that validation of forecasting methods and the use of error estimation is generally lacking in investment trading. The cognitive connection applies to how investment traders think. Taleb suggests that there is a general lack of probabilisitic thinking.

Coming to grips with infrequent and unexpected outcomes (black swans) is one of the most befuddling and confusing challenges we all face. Our primate brains form elementary strategies for dealing with certain risks.  We catch a glimse of a big carnivore in the brush and we run. 

But what to do if we have a bundle of money in the market and some social or economic perturbation comes along?  What will the market do if the Molybdenum prices skyrocket or if China invades Taiwan? Individuals and industries are concerned with the value of their investments over the course of positive and negative events. Stock traders need to act on clues so as to protect the value of their accounts.

Taleb laments the lack of probabilistic thinking in the investment community. He suggests that individuals and firms who are deemed as highly successful in investments are in reality just very lucky more frequently than we realize.

Even for hacks such as myself who gasped and sputtered through a few semesters of exposure to probabilistic concepts, i.e., quantum mechanics, radiation science, etc., sweeping the mind free of deterministic biases requires constant attention.  How is some MBA derivatives specialist going to temper her/his enthusiasm to buy or sell when phantom patterns appear in the market?  Good question.

Colonels of the Chemical Business

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The strengths and weaknesses of a business are to a large extent a reflection of the strengths and weaknesses of the people running them. It is possible to standardize and depersonalize many aspects of a business.  Accounting systems come to mind. There are benefits to be derived from rigid protocols for financial transactions, for instance.  Purchasing and sales transactions are managed by accounting software straight from the old testament. Records of all actions involving the transfer of funds are visible from a hike down the audit trail. Wreckless use of funds or a whole range of malfeasances can in principle be found by independent auditors.

In contrast to the rigidity of business accounting systems is the fuzzy world of business development.  Business development is a type of activity that combines purchasing, sales, and marketing.  It has elements of project management down to some level of detail within the organization.  Generally, business development managers are fairly high level managers who are chosen for certain attributes.  Not least among the virtues are unflappable self-confidence, a nimble sense of decorum, and educated but nonthreatening countenance.

Business development people are charged with attracting new business.  Where this differs with sales managers is that new business may be custom or cutting edge in some fashion. It is not likely to be plug-n-chug.  Process development resources will have to be committed.  

In the chemical business, a business development manager is likely to be very technically oriented. Where this differs from a “straight” sales person is that a business development person will be able to engage the potential customer in highly detailed technical discussions with the customers project management staff as well as strategic discussions with upper level management.  The ability and authority to seamlesly represent the company from technical issues to business agreements is the range of the business development manager.  Very often they are corporate officers at the VP level or above. This means that they can commit the organization.

Getting the business is only part of the job.  In the fabulous world of chemicals, a new product often means that new supply chains for raw materials must be secured. Some new raw materials will be existing items of commerce. Others may require custom synthesis.  Business development people may be involved on the buy side if for no other reason than to assure continuity and timeliness. 

In order to engage a custom supplier of a raw material, disclosure of confidential material may have to be done.  Furthermore, meetings between senior managers may be necessary to initiate the process of taking the supplier to the first step by supplying a proprietary procedure to obtain samples and commitment from the supplier. The business development manager is an obvious choice to take the lead in the procurement of key raw materials, at least initially.

Business development people are on the road a good share of the time. They attend trade shows, conferences, customer visits, and other public speaking venues.  They are often seen as the face of the company.  

What is perhaps not widely appreciated is the negative side of the business development job.  The high profile of the job means that you’ll report to inscrutible executives with all of the second guessing and intrigue that goes along with life at that level. You’ll have a big target on your back and people will be gunning for your job.  The job carries many heavy responsibilities, including the possibility that you’ll bring a dangerous piece of business to the facility. Even if you don’t blow up the plant or injure someone, problematic products or those with lower than anticipated margins can garner unfavorable attention. Presidents and CEO’s tend to forget the 10 great products against the glare of the one dog you brought in to the plant.

Getting product out the door

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Manufacturing is all about getting product onto a truck and watching it leave the gates of the plant. Because after the shipping documents are given to the driver, the invoicing begins.  This is a very time sensitive action.  The customer can’t pay until the invoice is received and the 30-days-net countdown begins.

It is deeply satisfying to package a chemical product that you have prepared with your hands and your wits.  I find the act of packaging product after it has passed QA appproval to be my favorite part of the process. It also means that I can start something new.  Rarely does one hear anything from the customer if the product is satisfactory.  The only time you hear from the customer is when something has gone wrong.

The bean counters will render the process into some bland abstraction that has inputs and outputs. They’ll yammer on about ROI and earnings before taxes, interest, and … whatever.  I’m glad to see that the MBA’s learn something in business school besides how to manage their IRA’s. But there is more to business than the electronic transfer of funds.

What really matters to me is that I did something useful this day. It matters that my hand-made product is useful to someone else and performs as required. Making things and stuff contributes to the ongoing process of civilization.  I feel sorry for the pure finance people.  They don’t know the satisfaction of isolating a water-white product in 99 % purity and slapping a label on the bottle and giving it to the shipping folks. I still get a  kick out of it.

Carbonylated Surf and Turf

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As a desperate strategy to fight insomnia, Th’ Gaussling often finds himself watching C-Span at 1 AM.  Congressional testimony or a televised speech at the International Museum Docent Convention by the Acting Assistant Deputy Undersecretary of the Stratosphere is often enough to initiate somnolence.

But early this morning was different. A panel of FDA administrators were before a House Committee on Commerce Chaired by Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Michigan. At issue was H.R. 4167, the National Uniformity for Food Act. Apparently, the proposed law will remove requirements for certain kinds of food labeling, in particular the presence of certain additives may not be part of manditory labeling.

What has come to light is the industrial practice of exposing meats and fish to an atmosphere of dilute carbon monoxide (CO, ca 0.4 %) in order to maintain a red color in the flesh.  Meat naturally turns brown on exposure to air over a short period. Industry has been wrestling with this for a long time, adopting and subsequently abandoning various schemes for maintaining the reassuring red color of meats and certain fish. Carbon monoxide coordinates with iron in haemoglobin to afford a complex that renders the tissues red in color. The FDA defines CO as a fixative in this application, rather than a preservative.

As a result of the use of this scheme, it is possible to keep meats and fish with a saleable red appearance for much longer. This reduces store losses due to the non-marketability of brown meat.

The House Commerce Committee was split down the isle in terms of its concern for this matter. Democratic committee members voiced considerable concern over the subterfuge of artificially reddening meat, allowing unwary consumers to falsely conclude that the meat could be fresher than it really is. Republican members seemed disinterested in the matter and several voiced concern that the FDA should spend it’s time with Salmonella rather than CO. The honorable Republican member from Kentucky tried to suggest that as a “simple country doctor”, he was having trouble understanding the issues and pronouncing the words (Rep. Elmer T. Bonehead, R-KY).

Whereas many of the members soft pedaled their questions, Rep. John Dingell, D-Michigan, offered no quarter to the FDA group. In particular he focused his attention of Director of Food Additive Safety, Laura Tarantino.  In earlier testimony, Tarantino was a picture of confidence. Her knowledge of the statutes and the Byzantine procedural details as well as her confidence and instant recall was impressive. However, when Dingell’s time for questions came along, he went after her with rapid fire questions, not allowing time for her to qualify her answers or fend off subtext.  “Just answer the question, yes or no”. It was interesting to see.  Dingell was obviously disgusted with the FDA.  The regulations and protocols that govern FDA movement are very complex and apparently even the administrators have faint grasp on much of it.

Director Tarantino stated that no specific rule-making concerning CO fixatives had been completed because it was still under study.  The working assumption was that CO was considered GRAS- Generally Recognized as Safe. These assumptions are often advanced by industry and accepted with scant examination by FDA.

When asked about the general safety of CO in the product, one FDA manager stated that the added CO posed no hazard. I have no reason to doubt this. But the real issue is consumer deception. I think even libertarians would have to agree that without disclosure of food additives, the market cannot rationally award its demand to preferred providers. You can bank on the notion that consumers are particular about meat and freshness. HR 4167 is a step backwards for consumers and we can only hope that good sense prevails in the House.

Evonik Absorbs Degussa

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Another venerable corporate identity has been rendered obsolete.  Evonik Industries AG has acquired Degussa to form what they call the Chemicals Business Area. Evonik has interest in energy and real estate as well.

It always surprises me to see a buyout that includes the retirement of an entire corporate identity. It’s the same with Union Carbide or Hoechst AG (now Aventis). There is so much name recognition with company’s like this that I really wonder what the rationale is for the change.

I recall one evening at a bar in Houston we were drinking with some Degussa business develpment guys after a tedious day at a conference. After listening to these German guys griping about American drivers, I took a sip of my gin and tonic and asked the question-

“So, was there a founder named Herr Degussa somewhere, sometime in the past?” They looked at me for a moment and then began to laugh. Turns out that the word Degussa  comes from “Deutsch Gold and Silver” in some fashion.  Or, so they said.

Best wishes to the good folks at (former) Degussa in their new adventure.

Management Recruiter Buggery

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High on the list of exciting professional experiences is the job interview process.  I just spent the weekend updating my resume. It is good to do this now and then if for no other reason than it forces you to recall just what the hell you’re good for.  As I performed this task, I was flooded with a stream of memories, both good and bad. 

I’ve had great interviews, ho-hum interviews, and a few awful experiences. My greatest interviews were from my stint in academia. Of the 7 interviews, I received 5 offers.  Not bad for a rythmically disabled Iowegian. But a few years later my smug confidence was to be shaken by an whole body dose of reality.

Academia is not reality, it is a sort of intellectual Hollywood. A la la land of frog princes and preening fussbudgets, special effects and make-believe. It is a pageant of grant-writing rock stars and untenured showboats on parade waving their tail feathers at all who would watch. I who had earlier embraced that world would later be out in the catabatic winds of big time management recruiting.

I won’t write a tedious valentine about my slender portfolio of actual talent.  Instead, I’ll tell of an experience with those bottom feeders of the job world- recruiters. 

In the frantic world of job placement, there are several kinds of recruiters. There are the recruiters that place at the highest levels of play, and there is everyone else. In my view they are all shady operators.  They will drop a line with bait on the end right in front of your face. Poachers they are. They’ll feign an excuse to call you at your office and query for associates –wink wink, nod nod- who may be looking for other work.

You’ll send a resume and there will be some back and forth. The recruiter will get to know you a bit.  Then one day you’ll receive an email invitation to interview at their office suite in Watercloset, PA.  You’ll fly to Philly, the city of brotherly shove, and navigate your rental car to their office.  The waiting room will have that dental office smell that’ll make your flesh crawl and your molars throb.

A smarmy receptionist will hand you off to a smarmy executive recruiting specialist. For me, this is where it all went down the toilet.  I sat in an expensive office near the Delaware River while the recruiter reviewed my resume, my buttocks reflexively clenched in the way countless other buttocks have been so clenched in that leather chair while enduring the first 2 hours of detailed questioning- “drilling in” they call it.  All the while, she was quietly building a case for yea or nay.

Here is where I went wrong. It was utterly and comically naive.  I thought that the recruiters job was to get me an interview for a management slot with an international chemical company. Fancy that! As I was to learn, my assumption was wildly and insanely in error. The recruiters, you see, only get paid when they deliver a candidate who gets hired.  So, they prescreen over the telephone and only bring in final candidates for the slot.  I was a final candidate for Sales and Marketing Director, but that is still far from the finish line.

As I sat through the meeting, it dawned on me that I was not being coached to give an award winning interview with the unseen client, but rather, I was being slowly skinned alive. 

Based on earlier conversations with this recruiter, I thought that they would deliver me to an interview with the company looking to fill the position. Instead, I was brought into the recruiters office for a much closer inspection on behalf of the customer. I was to have my professional colon inspected, so to speak, by these savage HR mercenaries.

After the early morning session with the contact recruiter, a real heavyweight was brought in- a partner of the firm. He was apparently an alumnus of HR at Merck and was accustomed to body slams in Big Pharma. He was a sort of “Refrigerator Perry” in the recruiting world.  There were no pleasantries, only an immediate start to some pretty rough play.  There was a long succession of close and bluntly skeptical questions about my experience and abilities. The two recruiters did a bit of good cop, bad cop along the way.  They were a team and played a disciplined game of question and answer, drilling ever deeper to what they were looking for.  The refrigerator lectured me at length like I was some kind of rube from up the holler, giving me the facts of life in Big Business. 

I guess I really was a rube from up the holler.

It didn’t take very long for me to see that not only would I not advance forward in this game, but I would have my head lopped off and handed to me on a greasy wooden plate.  And that is what happened.  After 90 minutes of questions and thinly veiled accusations of weakness, inexperience, and retarded professional development, the Refrigerator stood up and left the room. As the other recruiter fumbled with her notes, I sat there in silence like a stunned carp floating on the lake surface after dynamite fishing. After a moment she suddenly became matronly and bleated out consolation.  I was stunned and shocked from the rapid fire rude questions and the careless dissection of my very being. I had never been treated in this manner before, not even in grad school.

After my “case” recruiter made a brief show of effort to salve the wounds, I put my severed head under my arm and was shown the door. It was a long, depressing trip back home. I have had plenty of time to mull it over and can only conclude that I was treated badly.  As for the chemical company, I have had the chance to shun them as a supplier in subsequent years.  My indulgence in pettiness is one more scar from the experience.

Possible Signs of a Slowdown

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Hmmm. Some early indications of a slowdown are out there in certain commodity markets.  Purchasing people getting conservative and skittish with forecasts. When buyers revise their projections downward or say that they’ll ride on their inventory for a while longer, you can bet that rougher sledding is ahead. Just a question of magnitude.

The signs come a day after Bernanke suggested that a slowdown was possible. Cause? Effect? Hard to say.

The picture will begin to resolve over the next few months. The first quarter of the year often sets the pace for the year in markets that I’m familiar with. The chemical manufacturing market is so global and the dollar is so low that it is hard to determine if some of the latest conservative buying behavior is an actual indicator or not of business slowdown.  Hmmm. 

Toward the Green Manufacturing Ideal

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In the waters that I swim within, the term “Green Chemistry” is often derided as an environmental extremist codeword used by chemical technology Luddites. I’m sure there are anti-chemical purists who view Green Chemistry as a kind of natural alternative to the use of man-made, unnatural substances. Biodiesel is is commonly held as one example of a green alternative.

The merits of Green vs non-Green, or the inherent Greenness of Green technology is a contraversy too large for this blog. Instead, I would rather turn my attention to the merits of Green thinking in chemical process development.

Specialty chemical manufacture begins with relatively simple raw materials and produces more complex and more valuable compounds.  Limiting the topic to synthesis as opposed to formulation, specialty chemical manufacture relies on the application of functional group manipulation to achieve an end product with the desired features and connectivity. 

In chemical manufacture, there are several general ways to improve process economics. The most general term is process intensification, which describes the overall effect of maximizing the conversion of raw materials into product per volume or per dollar of capital equipment.  This can be done by a) running reactions at more concentrated levels, b) the application of heat and pressure, c) the elimination of solvents altogether, d) the use of more reactive species, or e) telescoping. 

a) Of the many kinds of reaction optimization schemes that we learn in grad school, perhaps the least explored is space yield improvement. Space yield is just the kg of product obtained per liter of reaction mixture used.  In manufacturing, the goal is to maximize the number of kg of product obtained per plant man-hour for a given piece of equipment.  Raw material costs are only slightly adjustable, whereas labor hours can often be lowered with the application of better technology. Labor costs are among the highest costs in a plant, so the goal is to produce the most kg of product per man-hour.  

Intensification by increasing space yield simply means that a solution reaction is run at the highest reasonable concentration. The benefit is that a reactor is run at the highest mass yield per batch.  Since the corresponding increase in labor to run the higher space yield is near zero, the resulting labor costs are spread over a greater quantity of mass- the labor $/kg go down.

b) Most people come out of college with precious little experience or appreciation for the benefits of high temperature and pressure in chemical synthesis. Continuous high temperature short time (HTST) reactions are out there, but require specialized equipment and expertise. Engineers love this kind of processing. For an optimized process, HTST systems have comparitively small reaction zones that are relatively inexpensive and take advantage of the economics of continuous flow chemistry. Good examples are ammonia production or Petroleum refining.

c) The elimination of solvents is a tricky thing. Gas phase chemistry is well known and quite mature technology. It is also amenable to continuous flow processing.  Elimination of solvents in condensed phase chemistry is a bit different problem.  Solvent molecules are like tiny sand bags in their ability to absorb energy.  Neat reactions may be prone to exotherms, so the calorimetry of any given proposed neat reaction needs to be examined carefully.

On the plus side of solventless processing, the space yields are at maximum and reaction rates are not diminished by dilution effects.

d)  The use of more reactive materials in a process can have benefits in time savings if a particular step is slow or does not go to completion. If the reactive reagent affects the rate limiting step, then time and yield savings may be had. On the down side, increased reactivity may offer decreased selectivity. Increased hazards will have to be calculated into the value proposition as well.

e) Telescoping refers to the combination of multiple steps in one reactor.  In it’s best incarnation, telescoping may afford the direct reaction of a product in the reaction mixture of the previous reaction. The benefit is in the savings of man-hours in vessel cleanout and preparation time, minimized hazwaste, and minimum handling.  Another form of telescoping would be that pot residues are left in the vessel and reagents from the next step are charged in without extra transfers and new vessels.  This tends to minimize the number of vessels needed for a process and minimizes the opportunity costs of having empty vessels standing by for use.

The goal of green chemistry as I see it is to minimize environmental insult by the reduction of consumables and the discharge of hazardous waste streams from a plant to the outside world of waste treatment.  The reduction of consumables like solvents, reagents, or electrical power reduces hazards and pollution up and down the value chain. The reduction of hazardous wastes minimizes the mass that has to be consolidated for eventual incineration or burial.

The reduction of consumables is entirely compatible with the economic goals of business.  Process intensification points to the same general direction as the goals of Green Chemistry and should be considered a type of Green activity.  If one draws a picture of the ideal state of any chemical manufacturing process, it surely would include intensification with sustainable raw materials and with maximized throughput and minimized risk.

Japanese Trading Companies

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Selling goods to Asia can be challenging for westerners. End users of chemicals in Asia often use trading companies to do their buying.  Selling to an Asian consumer of chemicals via the usual tools of marketing- cold calls, advertising, etc.- is complicated by the fact that the buyer may not be the end user. A call to an end user, if you can find their identity, may be politely declined. Instead, you might be referred to the allied trading company or just shown the door.

Th’ Gaussling is not an expert in this area of business. But I have more than a passing interest. Under the egg on my face are plenty of black and blue marks from my latest lesson. I should be receiving a certificate for 2 credit hours from the correspondence school of hard knocks.

Outwardly, chemical trading companies often look like end-users of chemical products. If you visit their websites, they’ll promote the manufacturing capacity of their customers and the impressive list of fine chemical products. In reality, they are located in a cramped office suite with fax machines and a server that projects the image onto the internet.  Their activity is limited to buying, selling and arranging logistics. Trading companies are part of the social custom of strategic alliances in Japanese business. They may buy and resell with a markup. They may provide contract buying services. There are numerous ways to do the deed.

For a factory, this arrangement allows managers to focus on manufacturing. Since trading companies only get paid if they hand over their deliverables, there is always a productive stress on the procurement people to look after their cadre of customers. 

One big problem from the vendors perspective is negotiation.  Negotiating with an end-user through an intermediary trading company is complex and time consuming. It’s best to do this face to face. Negotiation over the internet is not the best method. Trust is an issue and one gains trust by direct meetings.

The discussion of technical issues may also proceed through the trading company. This is can be a nightmare. I have wasted far too many precious heartbeats trying to noodle information from the end user through the mouthpiece of the trader. But from their side, this amounts to providing needed service to the customer.

It is difficult for western suppliers to penetrate the mind of customers in the east and discover how to market their wares in that part of the world. The trick for western business development people is to invest time and effort in understanding Asian trading practices.  Pick up some books on the topic. Go to trade shows and talk to Asian exhibitors. Read the trade publications.  Develop personal relationships.  Price wins the day, but trust is part of the calculation.

LunaBank. Off-shore banking on the moon.

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If you knew Th’ Gaussling very well, you would be quite surprised at his increasing skepticism with our approach to manned spaceflight.  I am an aerospace enthusiast. The most thrilling and terrifying moments of my life have occured at 7000 ft MSL with a Cessna strapped to my ass.  It is distressing to go public (well, under my pseudonym) with criticism of our manned space flight effort.

My first question is, what are we getting out of the ISS?  We’re racking up a lot of flight hours and the aerospace contractors are doing good business. The purpose of the ISS seems to be “Learning How to Build an ISS” if you watch NASA TV.  Where are the dividends to society? I’m sure they are there. Where is the tech transfer?

I know that research is being done on the ISS. But, how productive is it?  How close are we technically to going to Mars? The assessment of criteria for a Mars mission is supposed to be one of the work products of the ISS. Has anyone articulated how the big picture is looking? 

Apparently, a trip to Mars will involve a lot of gardening.

Hmmm. I can just hear it-

“Hey Bob! Where d’ya s’pose them sonsabitches at Kennedy put that g*ddamned shovel? ”

“Simmer down, Annie. For the third time, it’s behind the weed-eater next to the inertial navigation unit. Shee-yit!”

Given the commercial interests in building manned-flight rated hardware, are we really being honest with ourselves on the question of man-vs-robot? In other words, could we spend less and learn more from robotic space hardware?

Friends connected to NASA tell me that monies that were once available for activities not directly related to manned spaceflight are drying up. NASA is preparing for a return trip to the moon. We’re going to the moon again, but without any fanfare or sense of purpose. The public is largely disengaged and uncompelled. The public is disengaged because no one has heard the purpose articulated.

A country that has interest in an ongoing moon station will have to come up with more than just stunt or prestige value.  Huge inputs of national treasure will be committed to the enterprise.  Commercial interests should be folded in to produce goods and services in order to recover costs in some fashion.  The return of material products from the moon will have a very large transportation cost per kilogram.

The production of intellectual property, information, broadcasting services, or remote sensing will likely be the most attractive commercial products. Actually, the moon would be a good place for a Bank. Imagine a Swiss-style bank with safe deposit boxes located on the moon.  How much more secure a location for small treasures and damning evidence could there be? 

Similar ideas have been put into practice, starting with pirate radio of all things.  The Principality of Sealand was started as a micro-nation on a retired gun platform off the east coast of England. The plan initially was to have a remote location for pirate radio broadcasts.  Today, Sealand is the location of a secure data sanctuary called Havenco. The idea of a remote, encrypted data sanctuary was the theme of the book Cryptonomicon.

Naturally, other nations have voiced disapproval of the data sanctuary concept, citing potential for money laundering and other criminal activity. Havenco may find itself cutoff from the telecommunication network that keeps it alive.

The moon would be a great site for off-shore banking activity. Nobody owns the moon. It is outside the boundaries of all the jurisdictions on earth.  Funds could be electronically transferred to a remotely operated bank on the moon.  Hell, you could leave the doors unlocked and forget the vault.  At minimum, all you need to do is land a computer, a dish for data transfer, and some solar panels for power.  Once a year a service visit can be made by LunaBank people to service the equipment and swap deposit boxes. 

Aphorism #114. If you want to make money, you have to serve the people or institutions who have the money.

Eventually, though, there may well be jurisdictions on the moon. One day, the moon will be partitioned, so the last thing a LunaBanker wants is to suddenly be a part of the Soviet Union Russia or China on the moon. Or nearly any nationality, for that matter. The Swiss may be preferable, owing to their favorable history with this kind of business.

This scheme is very simplistic.  It will require more thought than that presented here and the criminal potential will have to be prevented. The question of what minimally constitutes a “Bank” and its relation to nationality naturally arises in this discussion. No doubt, there is more to it than my simple scribblings. But the point of this essay is that we as a spacefaring society need to start discussing this kind of activity and not just leave it to a cloister of specialists.