Category Archives: Current Events

Ivory Coast Cocoa and Cashews

A report from Reuters reveals that due to heavy rains in the Ivory Coast, cocoa production is under threat of flooding, insect damage and disease from heavy rain this rainy season. Ivory Coast is the world’s largest producer of cocoa.

Credit: Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cocoa_production_in_Ivory_Coast

The Ivory Coast cashew industry is on the verge of collapse following the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in farm overproduction and slumping demand. Industrial buyers of cashews have stalled in their purchasing of cashews from farmers due to low demand globally. Farmers are stuck with unsold produce from the last 2 seasons due to the lack of industrial demand.

Credit: Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cashew

Ivory Coast is the leading producer of cashew nuts in the world with 792,678 metric tons of output in 2019. This is closely followed by India with 743,000 metric tons of output the same year. These two countries have a solid lead over the next largest producers in Burundi, Viet Nam and Philippines with 2019 productions of 283,328, 283,328, and 242,329 metric tons respectively.

A plea to filmmakers

The quote below gives the most interesting explanation I’ve seen of gun culture in the US.

Guns are at the center of a worldview in which the ability to launch an armed rebellion must always be held in reserve. And so in the wake of mass shootings, when the public is most likely to clamor for gun regulations, Republicans regularly shore up gun access instead.”

No matter your position on firearms, there is no point in scolding the opposite side since few if any people are ever convinced to join your side. It is a waste of time and energy. The grownups of America need to find a way to de-normalize violence in general. Guns happen allow a person to commit violence from a safe distance, plainly a reason for their popularity. Obviously, self-defense is a delicate spot, but if committing violence is not nearly viewed as normal by the broader population, the need to for lethal self-defense just might diminish a bit.

American gun culture as I see it is comprised of a spectrum of individuals ranging from violent criminals to paranoid militiamen to peaceful hunters and sport shooting enthusiasts. Criticism of gun culture should not bunch them together under one umbrella. Carefully chosen vocabulary should be used so as not to antagonize the more peaceful side of the spectrum.

When the European frontier was settled by stone age people 40 or 50 thousand years ago, there were no firearms. There were weapons that could only be energized by their personal strength. Fighting was more intimate in the sense that clubbing and jabbing had to be done up close to your adversary. Stoning could be done from a few steps back. Killing wounds led to exsanguination and a rapid death while others led to sepsis and a longer, agonizing death.

The invention and spread of gunpowder starting in 9th century China led to the development of guns, cannons and, eventually, exploding projectiles. It was lost on no one that firearms enabled the projection of lethal force from a safer distance. The first really big war, World War I, in Europe was when advances like the Maxim recoil-operated machine gun and high explosives like picric acid were first put to large scale use. When the Maxim machine gun came out, many predicted that the mere appearance of the weapon would frighten the enemy into submission. Of course, it didn’t work and over the years the result was more and more efficient and mutual slaughter of opposing forces.

Male humans in particular have always been drawn to weapons and the martial arts. There are exceptions obviously, but men seem to take a shine to guns early in their lives. When asked why they like guns, they usually mention something about protection from intruders or perhaps just being a good guy with a gun in general. Often heard is the argument-terminating reminder of the 2nd Amendment and the vow that their guns could be confiscated only from their cold, dead hands.

Some Americans do live their lives in dangerous places. With some training, having a handgun in the nightstand may indeed be necessary for protection. Speaking for myself, I have never lived anywhere that was so burdened with crime that I felt it was necessary to pack a handgun. So, I can’t criticize those who are threatened by crime.

What I can criticize, though, is the broader culture that idolizes the Hollywood image of a good guy (or gal) who resolves conflict with a firearm. We have the screenwriters to thank for this. They dream up the story arc in the screenplay to include some fancy gun play. Death is always immediate and without the off-putting cries of pain and writhing that comes with a serious wound.

Gunplay in European TV programming is much less common. I’ve watched TV police drama series from the UK, Denmark, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, The Netherlands, Belgium, France, Italy and Germany. The only significant shooting I’ve seen is in a show from Germany called Luna & Sophie. Surprise, surprise. It turns out that a compelling police drama screenplay can be written without a lot of shooting and gratuitous violence. Or even with none at all. Perhaps it is because guns are not very abundant in the general population in Europe.

An effect of repeated and detailed depictions of gun violence on TV is that it suggests that shooting people is, well, normal. It normalizes the notion that the shooter can be the judge, jury and executioner. Killing someone with a gun also bypasses all of that due process stuff that wastes so much time. We all know that this is a dramatic depiction and that shooting people in real life will have very serious consequences. In my idea of civilization, people would be safe without a firearm. But, this is a fantasy I never expect to see unless I move to Iceland.

Maybe you could say that gunplay on US television mostly depicts good guys with guns defeating bad guys with guns. I’ll agree, that is a positive spin. The problem lies with population distribution within a large group. It often happens that a classroom or a large population will distribute itself unevenly when certain measurable attributes like personality or other performance metrics are considered. It is referred to as the bell curve. In the ideal mathematical sense, there is the standard distribution. Below is an example of a bell-shaped curve of % of members of a population versus age.

What is interesting to note is that as the population increases in size and barring any other influences, you would expect the population of each of the individual age groups to grow in number, though not necessarily in percentage. The point is that as the population grows, so does the subgroup of younger criminals.

Credit: National Institutes of Justice. https://nij.ojp.gov/media/image/2776

So, as the general population increases we can expect the population of criminals to grow as well.

Reality

Clearly, America is in a pickle. Mass shootings have been increasing in number, unlike with most other comparable nations. But with every mass shooting the cries for gun control go unanswered no matter the number of bloody dead children strewn about the floors of American schools. What can be done?

  • Removing guns from citizens or blocking their ownership will not happen. This is completely unworkable and serious people know it. It will only lead to civil war.
  • More laws and tougher sentences for gun-related crimes. This has been done and hasn’t solved the problem.
  • Training teachers to shoot attackers. If you know many teachers, you know this is unworkable.
  • The congress will accomplish absolutely nothing but handwringing.
  • A president can do nothing without the support of the congress. Nothing will happen here.
  • The gun lobby and the National Rifle Association will continue to spew their cold dead hands rhetoric, shouting down voices in favor of even the faintest of gun control remedies, regardless of the bloody mayhem happening.
  • Citizens dedicated to maintaining the status quo with 2nd Amendment hysterics will continue to shout, wave their flags and demand freedom.
  • Republicans will continue to whip up hysteria by lying that gun rights are on the cusp of disappearing.
  • Militiamen will continue to gather in the woods hoping for civil war.

The US has planted itself into a sort of cul-de-sac of violence and extremism in regard to the possession of needlessly powerful weapons and there seems to be no way out. There is no viable political action on the horizon. Instead, let’s forget the damned guns and look elsewhere.

A simple suggestion

In the US we are bathed in violence as entertainment. There were 45,222 firearm-related deaths in the United States in 2020 according to the Centers for Disease Control. That is an average of 124 Americans dying per day from firearm-related injury. These aren’t misfires from gun cleaning.

While multiple factors lead to violent actions, a growing body of literature shows a strong association between the perpetration of violence and exposure to violence in media, digital media, and entertainment.

Credit: American Academy of Family Physicians, https://www.aafp.org/about/policies/all/violence-media-entertainment.html

I’m not sure that viewers are actually asking for all of the entertainment violence that we see- it’s just that if it’s there we’ll eagerly watch it. It resembles click-bait. It is easy to write screenplays with of violence in it. Violence is genuinely exciting to most viewers. Violent content in programming helps to sell projects to those who finance and buy it. It definitely draws eyeballs which sells tickets, subscriptions and advertising. This is a reliable money machine.

What applies to movies also applies to video gaming. Many games are chock-full of violent content where the gamer does the simulated killing personally. I’ve played it myself. It triggers something that compels you to keep killing. But, does that condition you to committing actual violence? Maybe it is an effective release.

Producers and writers of violent content know full well what it takes to kick up the excitement factor. It is formulaic. While they operate under some sort of content guidelines, they are motivated to push it to the edge. The question is, do shoot ’em ups have to be every 4th scene? Are writers unloading their responsibility for compelling content to the stunt coordinators of gun fights and other violence?

What is needed is for screenwriters, producers and directors to back off on the violence a bit. All of the violence on TV comes from the imagination of the writers and producers. Surely it is within their power to throttle back a bit on the shooting, blood and guts. Desecration of human beings as entertainment should have tighter limits.

The goal is a safer and less violent civilization. The people who portray violence in vivid detail and orgasmic revenge produce a commercial product idealizes violence. They should be expected to self-govern better.

A Plea to Filmmakers

Your advertisers know that a certain fraction of viewers are persuaded to buy their products because of advertising within your TV programming. If they are persuaded to buy widgets they probably don’t need, don’t you think that your portrayals of violence might also be effective in negatively influencing impressionable young people? Will half the violence really reduce your profits by half? Does reducing violent content really infringe on your creative freedom? How limited are your creative abilities that you must accurately portray the destruction of human life?

Pat Robertson is Dead

Warning: A large dose of sarcasm is being dispensed.

American media mogul, founder of Regent University and Southern Baptist Preacher-man Pat Robertson has fallen over dead. He was constantly yammering on television and leveraging his Christian nationalist views on conservative US politics to the point where disasters like 9/11 were blamed on spiritual revenge. Yes, big guy upstairs, you know, the one who set the galaxies spinning and knows our every impure thought, is upset with many of us because of our woke political views. The GOP loves the hellfire and brimstone stuff. It naturally attracts a certain caste of voters (MAGA people) who eagerly line up to see God-fearin’ preachers and Republican officials openin’ up a can of whoop-ass on the libs. These are the voters who Republican candidates lust after. Robertson’s apocalyptic theology depended on this.

Are such people retrievable from their trip down the rabbit hole of petty magical mystical thinking? It doesn’t appear so.

Dysprosium Supply

One shining example of a scarce resource in need of conservation is the Rare Earth Elements (REE) series generally, and Neodymium, Nd, and Dysprosium, Dy, in particular. Nd is described as hard and not very malleable or ductile and Dy is very malleable. Both have a silvery metallic luster and similar chemistries forming +3 cation as the most stable cation. The REEs are often divided in a funny way. There are the Lanthanides which can be further subdivided into two subgroups – the light REEs from Lanthanum to Europium and the heavy REEs from Gadolinium to Lutetium. Of the lanthanides, heavy REE deposits are more scarce, but of the heavy group Dy is the most abundant.

Promethium is highly radioactive Lanthanide with a half-life of 17.7 years for the longest lived isotope, 145Pm. Interestingly, the mode of decay for this isotope is electron capture, sometimes called K-capture. Promethium has only a transitory existence due to its short half-life. The entire group of REEs share the ability to form +3 cations. This increases the difficulty of isolating pure elements from an ore since most ores contain multiple REEs. Worse, the +3 Lanthanides also have similar ionic radii allowing for them to substitute with each other in minerals. Similar ionic radii makes it a bit harder to isolate them.

The other subgroup comprises Scandium and Yttrium- sometimes called the Scandium group. In the periodic table all of the REEs are transition metals in Group 3.

For clarity, the periodic table below shows a yellow vertical column of two elements, Scandium and Yttrium. They are members of the REE group. The yellow row of elements below are the Lanthanide elements. All together they make up the REEs. The Lanthanide elements differ from the other two REEs in that they have f-orbitals with valence electrons.

Chemistry is about what valence electrons do. These are the electrons that interact with the world around the atom or molecule. All electrons in an atom or molecule spend their time in special regions of space called orbitals. Electrons in the outer valence level can be taken away or shared. If there is an empty space in the valence level, electrons can be dropped in. Valence electrons form chemical bonds. These electrons are chemically reactive because they are furthest from the nucleus and feel the least nuclear attraction. But their reactivity mostly disappears if the valence orbitals are full. Inert gases are inert because their valence orbitals are full. It is possible for empty low-lying orbitals to accept electron pairs from other neutral species like H2O, phosphorus compounds, carbon monoxide and the like. Metals can have both negatively charged and neutral species docked in place around a metal cation.

Removing a valence electron from an atom is called oxidation and dropping an electron into the valence level is called reduction.

Rare Earth Elements: Credit- http://www.ncpathinktank.org/rare-earths
This is NOT what an atom looks like. Electrons do not arrange themselves like this. Credit: https://www.chemguide.co.uk/atoms/properties/orbitsorbitals.html

Electrons spend their time in specially shaped regions of space around atoms and molecules called orbitals. We do not need to know where an electron is exactly at any given moment. The orbital shapes define where electrons spend 95 % of their time. Orbitals do not have sharp edges. They taper off into space. The image below is a more realistic representation of where electrons can be found. Orbitals represent regions where there is the largest probability of finding electrons of a certain energy. If you consider a spherical space surrounding an atom, you could say that the probability of finding an electron within is p=1. But due to the peculiar shape of the spaces where electrons spend their time, an electron is more likely to be in the space defined by spherical harmonics. Therefore, any given space within the sphere could be assigned a probability per cubic picometer of containing an electron, depending on its location. Probability per unit of volume can be referred to as probability density. It is the probability density represented by orbitals that is wavelike in quantum mechanics.

It turns out that we can describe the space electrons occupy if we apply the mathematics of a spherical harmonic series. The image below shows 4 levels of the series. The shapes define the space that electrons occupy around an atom. Each row represents a group of individual orbitals. Top to bottom, they are labeled s, p, d and f. The orbitals are filled with electrons theoretically in order from top to bottom rows as you move up the periodic table by atomic number, with each orbital holding as many as 2 electrons. Remember, orbitals are not physical objects. Each of them define a region of space in which one or two electrons spend their time. Also, there is some nuance in the energy levels of the orbitals. No matter though for this post.

Visual representation of a spherical harmonic series starting at the top and progressing down. Credit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spherical_harmonics

Below is a chart showing atomic orbitals oriented in an xyz coordinate system. Interactions of orbitals between atoms or molecules very much depend on how they are oriented as they contact.

The common elements we are most familiar with have s, p and d valence orbitals around the nucleus. As we increase the atomic number of the elements we drop down the rows of orbitals on the periodic table, the valence electrons get further away from the nucleus where they are better shielded by the innermost electrons. The consequence is that the energy needed by the first valence electron to escape becomes smaller.

Neodymium magnetism comes from the 4 unpaired f-electrons with their individual spins aligned in the same direction giving the atom a large magnetic dipole moment. The unit crystal of Nd2Fe14B magnetizes along a preferred crystal axis that is difficult to change. So, the large magnetic dipole moment from the 4 unpaired electrons in each Nd atom in the unit crystal are locked in space.

We live in a time of permanent magnets with extraordinarily high magnetic field strengths. They’re called rare earth magnets and two REEs stand out in particular in this application- Neodymium (Nd) and Dysprosium (Dy). Nd is the primary REE in this type of magnet, but It turns out that up to 6 % of Nd can be replaced with Dy to increase coercivity and increase resistance to demagnetization. This is important for heavy duty magnet applications like windmills and electric cars. It is estimated that replacement of Nd with Dy in REE magnets amounts to ~100 grams of Dy per car. Based on Toyota’s planned output 3.5 million battery operated electric vehicles per year by 2030, the current reserves Dy would soon be exhausted.

Rare earth magnets are generally comprised of 3 elements; Neodymium, Nd; Iron, Fe; and Boron, B, proportioned according to the formula Nd2Fe14B. Dy is an optional component of these magnets.

So, obviously Dy is a highly desirable metal for efficient use of permanent RE magnets. Even among the REEs, Dy is a minor element. There are no known minerals having Dy as the major REE. The crustal abundance of Dy is 0.3 ppm and the recycle rate is <10%. The major reserve holders are China, Russia, and the USA. Incidentally, for some years now China has been disinclined to supply REE ore in favor of value added REE finished goods. This is in contrast to their buying copper ore from Chile or Peru in order to capture lower copper costs by doing their own refining. They know what they are doing.

Plainly, much is yet to be done in regard to putting a recycle loop in place for REEs in products. This is especially true for dysprosium. So, do we wait for the free market to respond when the situation is dire and the bulk of the REEs are already consigned to landfills around the world?

Note: For the sake of keeping the post light and airy, I’ve made some generalizations above. Of course there are exceptions and nuances. There always are.

“Make America Florida” WTF??

All around universal genius and gazillionaire Elon Musk will be engaging Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a conversation that will include DeSantis’ announcement of his bid for the US presidency. The DeSantis krewe is obviously trying to distance themselves from #45, but not so much that they can’t poach his voters. They’re embracing capitalist folk hero and boy wonder Elon Musk’s endorsement in hopes of snagging MAGA voters who have grown weary of #45.

The DeSantis campaign has dreamed up the slogan “Make America Florida.” I’m incredulous at hearing this. Outside of Florida, “Florida Man” is a common reference to someone who is maniacal, irrational, delusional or insane. This is because, extrapolating from the news, Florida has an overabundance of them. More likely, there is more reporting of police notes than other places. Is it slander? Of course! It’s American humor unlikely to amuse outside of the US.

Credit: I don’t know, somewhere in the interwebs.

What remains to be seen is whether or not “Make America Florida” will catch on outside of the state. Especially in northern states outside of the old Confederacy. Some think that there is still a north/south divide in the US by some measures. I’ll leave that for others to expound on.

Applying DeSantis’ penchant for belligerent and punitive state politics, his presidency would surely be a setback for US democracy and a step forward for autocracy along the path the GOP is heading for. The GOP model of the US is not a place I’d care to live.

Baptist Hate-Preacher

A video dropped from the sky showing Christian preacher Jason Graber of the Sure Foundation Baptist Church in Spokane advocating for the execution of the parents of transgender kids by a gunshot to the back of the head. This video is echoing all over the interwebs. It is important to realize that managers who oversee news distribution are duty bound to allow only items that attract the greatest number of eyeballs through the filter. Their job performance is judged on this basis. They curate the news minute-by-minute as it happens.

Graber is a small frog in a very large pond. He and his flock are a small group in Spokane. However, I’m sure that his homophobia and anti-trans speech rhymes with what a great many people believe. You do not have to be explicitly pro-gay or pro-transgender to see that these views are a stage-4 malignancy in our democracy.

However, there is nothing new to this kind of vile speech. This is part of hellfire and brimstone preaching that has been in America since the very beginning. Only today it is amplified and distributed broadly in the Mulligan stew of today’s electronic media. Who would have guessed that the invention of the transistor would lead to this?

Plainly this preacher-man does not represent the views of all Christians. Population attributes are generally distributed as a normal distribution or sometimes called a bell curve with extremes on each side. Let’s say in this case that on the left extreme are those of Christ-like temperament of love and forgiveness and on the right extreme are those of hellfire and brimstone temperament. This character is obviously on the hellfire and brimstone end of the curve. In a normal distribution the population of extreme members is low and the bulk of the members are midrange. The mathematical ideal is sometimes called a Gaussian distribution after the great mathematician Karl Friedrich Gauss**.

A normal distribution curve showing population percentages vs deviations from the average (Greek letter mu). Source: Simply Psychology, https://www.simplypsychology.org/normal-distribution.html

Brother Graber is very much on the extreme end of the curve, even for a fundamentalist. But the freakshow he puts on causes much rubbernecking on the great interstate highway of life. It makes him look bigger than he really is. Media rewards extremism with large viewership. Look at #45, the Elephant Man of media. You just can’t take your eyes off him.

One weakness of members of the human distribution is that many are liable to believe that his outrageousness is a measure of the purity of his righteous devotion to God. He is devoted alright. To a bronze-age deity who plays favorites and metes out lethal justice to the infidels. Historically, this kind of deity has always held an appeal to people. It so happens that I am not one of them. Tradition can offer great comfort for many. But it can also be unneeded baggage that bogs you down in the muck of obsolete beliefs. It is the imaginary cosmology of Deities, a theory of the universe that sees angels and demons lurking behind every tree. What’s behind every tree? The backside of the tree of course.

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**My blog name, Gaussling, is in honor of Gauss and in no way is meant to suggest that my mathematical abilities are anywhere near his. Au contraire.

Dow Goes Nuclear

It has been announced that Dow and X-Energy will be building a nuclear power plant to feed Dow’s 4700 acre Seadrift, TX, manufacturing facility. The plant will be comprised of a 4 pack of Xe-100 80 Megawatt (electric) High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) pebble bed reactors. The reactors are spec’d to each produce 200 MW thermal and 80 MW electric. The design is referred to as a small modular reactor facility and is part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP).

According to Wikipedia, the history of pebble bed reactor operation is checkered by design and operational problems, many of which relate to the tennis ball sized graphite pebbles themselves. During operation of the pebble bed, radioactive graphite dust is generated leading to eventual contamination problems. Pebbles getting stuck within the equipment are difficult to dislodge and can lead to fracturing in doing so. The reactor needs fire protection because the hot pebbles are combustible when exposed to air.

The HTGR pebble bed design has many features that are very positive. The spaces between the pebbles duct the cooling gas, avoiding the need for coolant piping in the reactor. The absence of water prevents the formation of hydrogen by neutron collisions with the water. Hydrogen generated in a reactor will migrate into metal components and cause embrittlement leading to possible component failure. Overall, the design of a HTGR pebble bed reactor is considered to be much less complex than a water moderated reactor due to the lack of an elaborate water cooling system.

Despite the happy talk about their technology the maker of the system, X-Energy, will have to show how past problems with the pebble bed design have been overcome. Their website gives no clues about overcoming problems encountered in the past. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission is a tough crowd and both Dow and X-Energy will have to provide a strong case for safe operation.

I wish them success.

There Are Benefits to Sending Light, Short Women to Mars

A paper is out comparing the resources needed to send women vs men on a trip to Mars. The paper, appearing in Nature publication Scientific Reports is: Scott, J.P.R., Green, D.A., Weerts, G. et al. Effects of body size and countermeasure exercise on estimates of life support resources during all-female crewed exploration missionsSci Rep 13, 5950 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-31713-6.

The paper is worth a look, but I’ve cut and pasted the conclusions below-

When compared at the 50th percentile for stature for US females and males, these differences increased to − 11% to − 41% and translated to larger reductions in TEE, O2 and water requirements, and less CO2 and Hprod during 1080-day missions using CM exercise. Differences between female and male theoretical astronauts result from lower resting and exercising O2 requirements (based on available astronaut data) of female astronauts, who are lighter than male astronauts at equivalent statures and have lower relative VO2max values. These data, combined with the current move towards smaller diameter space habitat modules, point to a number of potential advantages of all-female crews during future human space exploration missions.

A female crew would require less energy and less weight in provisions than men just from the benefits of smaller scale metabolism alone. Looks like hurtling women to Mars is an all-around winning idea.

Gladwell on Power Distance

Malcom Gladwell recently wrote a short essay titled “What I Found at a Mennonite Wedding”. While I don’t hold the iron age theory of the universe that the big religions have, I have always admired groups like the Quakers who practice simplicity and humility. Gladwell relates the idea of “power distance” that he observes at the Mennonite wedding he attended.

Power distance is an anthropological concept developed by psychologist Geert Hofstede. According to Wikipedia, this refers to “inequality and unequal distributions of power between parties“. Somewhat later the term was further refined by the Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness (GLOBE) project. GLOBE defined power distance as “the degree to which members of an organization or society expect and agree that power should be shared unequally”.

Once you see the definition, it’s meaning seems obvious. The phenomenon appears where individuals and groups seek control over others. It relies on the natural inclination of people to go along to get along or to seek affiliation. The recent MAGA love affair with president #45 carries the distinct smell of a public willing to turn more power over to a single person- the extension of power distance. It happened with Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, and others.

The connection to the Mennonite wedding is that the wedding party themselves served up lunch to the guests. This is a power distance shortening action meant to recognize and serve the guests as part of the community.

Some people criticize Gladwell for being just a bit shallow in his writings. He seems to write the view from 5,000 ft rather than from an alligator’s viewpoint in the swamp. There is a place for generalization … if you want readers, that is.

The West Cannot Slide Into Isolationism

Along with the fact that #45 is running for president again is the sickening prospect of two more years of news coverage of his orange face spewing streams of lies, exaggerations and deflections. Broadcasters and news providers in all media can’t resist the bloviating #45 because he attracts admiring eyeballs and those enchanted by the freakish spectacle of human idiocy at its worst.

As bad as the prospect of #45 returning to the White House is the reality check that a large block of the voting public will vote for him again. After 6 years of shameful behavior and nauseating political drama, it is quite clear that most in the MAGA crowd are not put off by his behavior.

A vote for #45 the isolationist is a vote for instability in Europe. Czar Putin will see to it that recovery of former Soviet states will happen. The US cannot be isolationist as Russia executes its land grab. At this period in history, western isolationism by passive acceptance of Russian expansionism is a one-way ticket to Russian authoritarian hegemony. This is an end state that we in the west should be able to agree on.

The world has learned that Russia’s conventional land forces are not so formidable. This is the unexpected downside of the invasion for Putin. However, Russia has always considered that the use of nuclear weapons is part of a continuum rather that preceded by a firebreak as with the west. The Russian talking heads have been keen to remind us of the power of their nuclear triad. Little mention is made of the US nuclear triad that more than matches it. The presence of nuclear sea launched ballistic missile submarines on both sides alone renders a nuclear conflict as suicide for both sides.

Americans should go to YouTube and find translated video of Russian talking heads spewing the most vile hate speech you can imagine at the Ukrainians and western powers. Polish public television TVP is a good place to start. Many Russian talking heads are speaking in favor of an all out war with the west, including nuclear weapons. Many claim that WWIII has already begun. We have been reduced to non-human beasts deserving of painful death for daring to push back Russian efforts to expand their great empire. Some figures claim that the west is after their oil & gas resources.

The reason I suggest viewing this content is to understand the constant high intensity of their internal propaganda. While there is some open criticism of the military, criticism of Putin himself is religiously avoided. Many say that Putin is surrounded by incompetent people. This is the information environment that the Russian people are subject to on a daily basis. It is difficult to believe that Russian citizens will rise up to overthrow the Putin regime through some kind of a democratic effort. More likely someone around Putin will take over with his blessing.

Russian propaganda is not some side specialty that issues from an office somewhere in Moscow. It is built into the whole governing apparatus and supervised by the GRU. Russia is very effective at not only generating fake news, but also mass confusion about what is happening. A Russian propaganda campaign is actually a layer cake of misdirection through a series of changing stories. People become confused about what is happening and are likely to lose focus.

Here is an interesting link to propaganda.