Category Archives: Current Events

Interview of Timothy Snyder on the Putin-Ukraine War

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An interview with the historian Timothy Snyder has appeared in the March 9th, 2023, internet issue of Der Spiegel International. The interview was conducted By Ann-Dorit Boy und Eva-Maria Schnurr. Snyder has very strong Euorpean history credentials with a Ph.D. in History from the University of Oxford. He is presently the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University and a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.

Photo from Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_D._Snyder

The interview starts with an important question for Germany-

“As Germans accept the debate on Putin’s terms, they can miss the obvious point: If we care about the comparison, we have to note right away that it is Putin’s Russia that is behaving more like Germany in 1941: Moscow, like Berlin then, claims that a neighboring people and state do not exist; Moscow, like Berlin then, is fighting a war of aggression; Moscow, like Berlin then, is carrying out eugenic, deportation, and mass killing policies. If Russia is behaving as the Germans did in 1941, then the Germans now have a second chance to respond to fascism. Will they take that second chance?“

Snyder makes the point that German reticence to aid Ukraine in the war is what Putin wants.

“In Russia, his [Putin’s] intention is to build a cult of innocence: No matter what we do, it must be justified, because we are always the righteous victim. Of course, this contradicts the actual history of the Second World War, in which Stalin chose to ally with Hitler, and in which Ukrainians actually suffered more than Russians, by any measure. Putin is also seeking to exploit the historical memory of Germans. He wants to trigger the German reflex that Russians must be victims and Germans must be aggressors.“

I will end here because the article needs no explanation from me. It’s worth the read.

Florida Clicks Another Notch Towards Authoritarianism

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State Senator Brodeur of the Republic of DeSantistan has introduced a bill that, among other things, proposes requirements on compensated bloggers. How are compensated bloggers different from professional journalists? Not being a constitutional scholar, it escapes me how this doesn’t violate the first amendment. You remember that one, it is just next to the 2nd amendment.

160 (2) If a blogger posts to a blog about an elected state
161 officer and receives, or will receive, compensation for that
162 post, the blogger must register with the appropriate office, as
163 identified in paragraph (1)(f), within 5 days after the first
164 post by the blogger which mentions an elected state officer.

Bloggers receiving compensation for their posts about elected state officers must register with the state and submnit a report-

181 (d) The reports must include all of the following:
182 1. The individual or entity that compensated the blogger
183 for the blog post.
184 2. The amount of compensation received from the individual
185 or entity, regardless of how the compensation was structured.

============================

Below is the text of the bill. The bill reads-

Florida Senate – 2023 SB 1316
By Senator Brodeur
10-00366B-23 20231316__
Page 1 of 9
CODING: Words stricken are deletions; words underlined are additions.
1 A bill to be entitled

2 An act relating to information dissemination; amending
3 s. 45.031, F.S.; deleting a provision requiring a
4 judicial notice of sale to be published for a
5 specified timeframe on a publicly accessible website;
6 amending s. 50.0311, F.S.; specifying that a
7 governmental agency may use the public website of a
8 county to publish legally required advertisements and
9 public notices if the cost for such publication is not
10 paid by or recovered from a person; creating s.
11 286.31, F.S.; defining terms; requiring bloggers to
12 register with the Office of Legislative Services or
13 the Commission on Ethics, as applicable, within a
14 specified timeframe; requiring such bloggers to file
15 monthly reports with the appropriate office by a
16 certain date; providing an exception; specifying
17 reporting requirements; authorizing a magistrate to
18 enter a final order determining the reasonableness of
19 circumstances for an untimely filing or a fine amount;
20 requiring that the Legislature and the Commission on
21 Ethics adopt a specified rule; providing penalties for
22 late filing; prohibiting the assessment of a fine for
23 the first time a report is not timely filed, under
24 specified conditions; authorizing bloggers to appeal a
25 fine within a specified timeframe; specifying the
26 appeal process; authorizing bloggers to request that
27 the appropriate office waive the reporting requirement
28 under specified conditions; providing that unpaid
29 fines for a specified timeframe may be recovered

30 through the courts of this state; providing an
31 effective date.
32
33 Be It Enacted by the Legislature of the State of Florida:

35 Section 1. Subsection (2) of section 45.031, Florida
36 Statutes, is amended to read

<<< Some code relating to government access to publicly available websites is omitted for clarityt. >>>

286.31 Blogger registration and reporting.—
139 (1) As used in this section, the term:
140 (a) “Blog” means a website or webpage that hosts any
141 blogger and is frequently updated with opinion, commentary, or
142 business content. The term does not include the website of a
143 newspaper or other similar publication.
144 (b) “Blogger” means any person as defined in s. 1.01(3)
145 that submits a blog post to a blog which is subsequently

146 published.
147 (c) “Blog post” is an individual webpage on a blog which
148 contains an article, a story, or a series of stories.
149 (d) “Compensation” includes anything of value provided to a
150 blogger in exchange for a blog post or series of blog posts. If
151 not provided in currency, it must be the fair-market value of
152 the item or service exchanged.
153 (e) “Elected state officer” means the Governor, the
154 Lieutenant Governor, a Cabinet officer, or any member of the
155 Legislature.
156 (f) “Office” means, in the context of a blog post about a
157 member of the Legislature, the Office of Legislative Services
158 or, in the context of a blog post about a member of the
159 executive branch, the Commission on Ethics, as applicable.
160 (2) If a blogger posts to a blog about an elected state
161 officer and receives, or will receive, compensation for that
162 post, the blogger must register with the appropriate office, as
163 identified in paragraph (1)(f), within 5 days after the first
164 post by the blogger which mentions an elected state officer.
165 (3)(a) Upon registering with the appropriate office, a
166 blogger must file monthly reports on the 10th day following the
167 end of each calendar month from the time a blog post is added to
168 the blog, except that, if the 10th day following the end of a
169 calendar month occurs on a Saturday, Sunday, or legal holiday,
170 the report must be filed on the next day that is not a Saturday,
171 Sunday, or legal holiday.
172 (b) If the blogger does not have a blog post on a blog
173 during a given month, the monthly report for that month does not
174 need to be filed

175 (c) The blogger must file reports with the appropriate
176 office using the electronic filing system:
177 1. As provided in s. 11.0455 if the blog post concerns an
178 elected member of the Legislature; or
179 2. As provided in s. 112.32155 if the blog post concerns an
180 officer of the executive branch.
181 (d) The reports must include all of the following:
182 1. The individual or entity that compensated the blogger
183 for the blog post.
184 2. The amount of compensation received from the individual
185 or entity, regardless of how the compensation was structured.
186 a. The amount must be rounded to the nearest $10 increment.
187 b. If the compensation is for a series of blog posts or for
188 a defined period of time, the blogger must disclose the total
189 amount to be received upon the first blog post being published.
190 Thereafter, the blogger must disclose the date or dates
191 additional compensation is received, if any, for the series of
192 blog posts.
193 3. The date the blog post was published. If the blog post
194 is part of a series, the date each blog post is published must
195 be included in the applicable report.
196 4. The website and website address where the blog post can
197 be found.
198 (4) Notwithstanding any other law, a magistrate is
199 authorized to enter a final order in determination of the
200 reasonableness of circumstances for an untimely filing of a
201 required report and the amount of a fine, if any.
202 (5) Each house of the Legislature and the Commission on
203 Ethics shall adopt by rule, for application to bloggers, the

204 same procedure by which lobbyists are notified of the failure to
205 timely file a report and the amount of the assessed fines. The
206 rule must also provide for, but need not be limited to, the
207 following provisions:
208 (a) A fine of $25 per day per report for each day late, not
209 to exceed $2,500 per report.
210 (b) Upon receipt of an untimely filed report, the amount of
211 the fine must be based upon the earlier of the following:
212 1. The date and time that the untimely report is actually
213 received by the office.
214 2. The date and time on the electronic receipt issued
215 pursuant to s. 11.0455 or s. 112.32155.
216 (c) The fine must be paid within 30 days after the notice
217 of payment due is transmitted, unless an appeal is filed with
218 the office. The fine amount must be deposited into:
219 1. If the report in question relates to a post about a
220 member of the Legislature, the Legislative Lobbyist Registration
221 Trust Fund;
222 2. If the report in question relates to a post about a
223 member of the executive branch, the Executive Branch Lobby
224 Registration Trust Fund; or
225 3. If the report in question relates to a post about
226 members of both the Legislature and the executive branch, the
227 lobbyist registration trust funds identified in subparagraphs 1.
228 and 2., in equal amounts.
229 (d) A fine may not be assessed against a blogger the first
230 time a report for which the blogger is responsible is not timely
231 filed. However, to receive this one-time fine waiver, all
232 untimely filed reports for which the blogger remains responsible

233 for filing must be filed with the office within 30 days after
234 the notice of untimely filing was transmitted to the blogger. A
235 fine must be assessed for any subsequent late-filed reports.
236 (e) The blogger is entitled to appeal a fine, based upon
237 reasonable circumstances surrounding the failure to file by the
238 designated date, by making a written request to the office for a
239 hearing before the magistrate from the Second Judicial Circuit.
240 Any such request must be made within 30 days after the notice of
241 payment due is transmitted to the blogger. The office shall
242 transmit all such timely, written requests to the chief judge of
243 the Second Judicial Circuit along with the evidence the office
244 relied on in assessing the fine. The magistrate, after holding a
245 hearing, shall render a final order, upholding the fine or
246 waiving it in full or in part.
247 (f) A blogger may request that the filing of a report be
248 waived upon good cause shown based on reasonable circumstances.
249 The request must be filed with the office, which may grant or
250 deny the request.
251 (g) Fines that remain unpaid for a period in excess of 100
252 days after final determination are eligible for recovery through
253 the courts of this state.
254 Section 4. This act shall take effect upon becoming a law.

Putin’s War of Conquest

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The US needs many things, but now in particular we need a government that will strongly support Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Putin. Containment of Russia’s latest brutal dictator is a must for continued liberal democracy in the west. The US/NATO partnership is the necessary bulwark from the world’s two giant, grasping autocracies- China and Russia. Both will continue to be a challenge to the very existence of liberal democracies around the world for many decades to come.

Both China and Russia are weary of US hegemony in the world and seek to knock the US down and replace it with their own hegemony. The widespread use of English as the “lingua franca” of the world, US popular culture as well as the preeminence of the US dollar in world trade grates on their national pride. To coexist with US hegemony is to give consent. Both nations want to be masters of the realm. Simple human nature.

Perhaps Russia will emerge on the world stage one day as a guiding influence for decent civilization. But, that event will happen only after Russian citizens steer away from their long tolerance of autocratic and brutal leadership. It is up to the Russian citizenry to fix the Putin problem. Putin will not peacefully die in retirement. He’ll die in power like most of the former leaders of the Soviet Union from Lenin onwards did. Gorbachev had the grace to step down peaceably after he dissolved the Soviet Union. Somehow the pillars of support Putin has constructed over the years will have to crumble away. However, there is no guarantee that his successor will be much different.

The US had to be shaken from its isolationist trance to join in with WWI and WWII. Today, president #45 and others were showing a definite trend towards isolationism in the years prior to the onslaught of Putin’s savage war in Ukraine. #45’s tolerance and admiration of Putin was peculiar and very suspicious looking. Treating Putin like buddy is the wrong tack. George W. Bush said he peered into Putin’s eyes and saw his soul. Bush later said he regretted having said that.

It is not in the interest of the US or Europe to stand back as Putin goes on a land grab along the Russian frontier. So far Putin’s war has not devolved into a WWIII. The NATO countries have wisely avoided actions that would trigger a direct shooting war with Russia while at the same time sending resources to Ukraine. Yes, it is a proxy war. This support is expensive but it must continue.

With China showing interest in supporting Putin, we may find ourselves in a proxy war with them as well. However, China has much to lose in as much as the US is one of it’s biggest customers. Whatever the case, we’re on the way with Cold War II.

Henry Kissinger (HK) made waves at the Davos Conference in May of 2022 when he suggested that Ukraine and Russia return to the status quo ante. In a July 2, 2022 interview with HK in The Spectator, interviewer Andrew Roberts reports-

“If Russia stays where it is now, it will have conquered 20 per cent of Ukraine and most of the Donbas, the industrial and agricultural main area, and a strip of land along the Black Sea. If it stays there, it will be a victory, despite all the setbacks they suffered in the beginning. And the role of NATO will not have been as decisive as earlier thought.

The other outcome is an attempt made to drive Russia out of the territory it acquired before this war, including Crimea, and then the issue of a war with Russia itself will arise if the war continues.

The third outcome, which I sketched in Davos, and which, in my impression, Zelensky has now accepted, is if the Free People can keep Russia from achieving any military conquests and if the battleline returns to the position where the war started, then the current aggression will have been visibly defeated. Ukraine will be reconstituted in the shape it was when the war started: the post-2014 battleline. It will be rearmed and closely connected to NATO, if not part of it. The remaining issues could be left to a negotiation. It would be a situation which is frozen for a while. But as we’ve seen in the reunification of Europe, over a period of time, they can be achieved.”

HK supports the “equilibrium” of status of quo ante to the pre-February 24, 2022, borders rather than an attempt to defeat Russia. I think Ukraine would only agree to this if things were looking bad for them. As Putin has demonstrated, he lies all of the time. He is in no way dependable in a peace agreement.

Whatever it is that Putin responds to, we have to assume that overwhelming and superior firepower are high on the list. The US and NATO must present an iron fist in reply to Russian aggression. Putin has established himself as one of the major bad actors in modern times. The man’s ambition and swaggering macho is and will remain a threat to democratic states.

Modern Russian leadership has a pattern of oppression and intelligence gathering along with institutions to apply it everywhere they can. They are masters of propaganda and the psychology of intimidation. America is outclassed in the propaganda field.

American notions of social order were influenced by the British. The oppression of monarchy on the American colonies served as a negative example of how to govern. But, the British have the Magna Carta of 1215 in their history which was an agreement between a group of barons and King John of England providing protection of certain rights. The original charter was quickly annulled but was reissued in 1216. Over the years the charter became a part of political life in England.

The point of this history lesson is to suggest that Russian history has no similar example of democratic leanings. What did happen in 1861 in Russia was the Emancipation Proclamation by Emperor Alexander II abolishing serfdom. This edict was one of many liberal reforms during his reign (1855 to 1881) and gave 23 million serfs their liberty. While not democratic, it was a positive step change in Russian society. Another step change for Russia came with the Bolshevik revolution if 1917. Unfortunately, this gave rise to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and all of the subsequent Stalinist and cold war turmoil that followed. Russia needs another step change to shake loose the dictatorship/kleptocracy model that Putin has put in place. Whatever it is that serves the needs of a peaceful Russia, it needs to arrive soon.

Gaussling’s Epistle to the Bohemians 2/28/23

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>>> A smattering of thoughts each too small for a post. <<<

I’ve been thinking about quantum chemistry lately, or more to the point, my graduate-level single semester experience with it. First let me say that prior to taking the qualifying exams on arrival to the graduate chemistry program, I made sure to bone up on the particle in a one-dimensional box model. And sure enough, it was on the entry p-chem exam. Whew! Dodged that bullet. However, of all 5 exams we took, I didn’t pass the statistical mechanics exam. I would have to repeat the exam and pass it by the end of the year. Instead of taking the undergrad p-chem course I decided to risk it and study on my own and as luck would have it, I managed to pass it. Another monkey off my back.

Back to the quantum chemistry course. Initially I was hoping to gain a bit of qualitative insight into the subject. As it turned out, it was really just a high level math class where the prof spent the whole term deriving all of the key equations. I think this is pretty common for this subject. There were zero interesting applications mentioned. He was either unable or unwilling to render any of it into sentences for context. The guy was a rock star in his area of solid state nuclear magnetic resonance. Once I went in for help during office hours and he told me he was busy and to come back in 2 weeks (!). I was finally convinced that putting scientists on a pedestal was a serious error and that a**holes were truly everywhere. Anyway, I made it through the experience and moved on. Haven’t had to think about Hamiltonians since.

==========

I was chatting with a toxicologist colleague recently about the big derailment and fire disaster in East Palestine, OH. I had suggested that the decision of the responders to vent and burn the remaining vinyl chloride was probably a good idea. There was some fear that there may be a runaway polymerization of the vinyl chloride. This would likely lead to an explosive rupture of the tank car and a possible BLEVE. This is from the report–

“On February 5, responders mitigated the fire, but five derailed DOT-105 specification tank cars (railcars 28–31 and 55) carrying 115,580 gallons of vinyl chloride continued to concern authorities because the temperature inside one tank car was still rising. This increase in temperature suggested that the vinyl chloride was undergoing a polymerization reaction, which could pose an explosion hazard. Responders scheduled a controlled venting of the five vinyl chloride tank cars to release and burn the vinyl chloride, expanded the evacuation zone to a 1-mile by 2- mile area, and dug ditches to contain released vinyl chloride liquid while it vaporized and burned. The controlled venting began about 4:40 p.m. on February 6 and continued for several hours.”

My colleague said that a fire releases aerosols that are likely to be especially deleterious to the lungs. Burning organic chlorides leads to hydrochloric acid formation with all of the joy that it brings to the dance. The smoke plume, elevated by convection, and probably carrying some amount of unburned chemicals will spread with the aerosols far and wide. This would contaminate a larger patch of environment and expose a more distant population than a simple spill at the crash site would. He wondered to what extent the chemicals shouldn’t have been removed at the site, spill or not, and the land be designated as a Brownfield.

==========

Elon Musk has been running off at the mouth again, this time seeming to take sides with the Dilbert cartoonist Scott Adams who was recently given the death penalty of abandonment by his publishers. Adams used his cartoon to go off on the Black population saying that Whites “should get the hell away from Black people” referring to them as a racist hate group.

Set aside the merits/demerits and morality of Adams’ racial views for a minute. As an adult and businessman he should have known the boundaries of acceptable content in his cartoon strips in the current social environment. He published content that appeared to have alignment with white supremacist ideas. In publishing this content, he made himself radioactive and he was dropped by his publishers who happen to have better business sense. What a dunce. He was playing with a loaded gun and it went off in his face.

So, His Excellency, Elon Musk, has stepped into the fray and condemned the excommunication of Adams from the comic strip pages. Musk said that while Adams’ comments weren’t good, there was an element of truth in them. He accused the media of providing a “false narrative” by giving more attention to Black victims of police violence than to White victims of police violence. This is on top of his general loosening on hate speech on Twitter and the reinstatement of banned accounts such as with #45. Musk is broadcasting that hate speech is as valid as any other speech on his platform. Businesses like Twitter are free to edit content or not as they please. Musk believes in a rough-and-tumble environment where most anything goes. As an owner, he is certainly free to do that. But as owner, he is also responsible for content that drives away business.

Irrespective of your beliefs in this matter or the obvious morality issues, it should be apparent that neither Adams or Musk seem to care about the effect on business of draping yourself in the flag of racism, or even just of allowing the perception of it. Savvy is a kind of vector- it has magnitude and direction. Musk has strong vectors in the technology direction, but not so much in the public relations direction. He doesn’t seem to have full control of his mouth just yet.

==========

The burnin’ ring of fire

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The Norfolk Southern train derailment and fire in East Palestine, OH, has spread into the political dumpster. By not appearing near the crash site promptly, both Biden and Buttigieg are feeling the heat of the GOP panic machine. The single plank on the GOP platform is to knock down Democrats at every opportunity. While the news organs of the GOP are busy trying to blame the Biden administration for the accident, fire and contamination, citizens are expressing dismay over not knowing what to do going forward. They aren’t receiving much advice or direction from EPA about how much they should be worried about contamination and exposure to the released chemicals. In fact, on the ground it has been hard to see the hand of government anywhere. Their frustration is normal and understandable. I would be frustrated too.

Let’s step back a minute and examine the situation from 50,000 ft. The last thing we want in government is for a proper response to an emergency of this scale to require the president to personally lead the emergency response. The same is true for the Secretary of Transportation. Good leaders delegate responsibility to specialists for situations like this. Good leaders are watchful but stay out of the way of the experts. Good leaders make sure that the people on the ground have the resources they need to do their jobs. Ok, Biden didn’t respond publicly to the situation early enough, but that is not to say that things weren’t happening. But, he has 330,000,000 American back-seat drivers to make happy. That’s his job.

Let’s remind ourselves that Biden and NATO are also busy trying to prevent the start of WWIII.

As with an emergency of any scale, it takes responders some time to understand the situation and then to bring resources to bear. In the mean time, the NTSB was promptly dispatched and has already published preliminary report RRD23MR005 on the event. It is very interesting to see that many of the safety systems worked. The overheated wheel was detected and an emergency braking procedure was put into action just before the derailment occurred.

Ok, Biden and Buttigieg could have been quicker to publicly extend sympathy and the promise of relief. Complaining about this is like accusing grandma of not giving you a kiss while she was trying to put out a fire in the kitchen. But contrast this PR error of omission with the antics of #45 in Puerto Rico after the recent hurricane. Remember how he tossed rolls of paper towels as mock support during an interview down there? MAGA people have no leg to stand on with presidential expressions of sympathy.

From Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dose%E2%80%93response_relationship

As far as what kind of toxic threat there is to humans and what potential environmental insult there will be, the situation has not fully played out yet. This will need to be studied for years. There is acute toxicity and there is chronic toxicity. With most chemicals there will be a clear dose-response relationship with chemical dosing if you choose the right experiment to do. However, that relationship can become quite uncertain with low dosing. The health effects of exposures from the East Palestine derailment cannot be measured with high precision over the long haul. Genuine toxic effects are over-printed on a background of natural disease. Diseased tissues do not have little signs that say “I was caused by vinyl chloride dosing”. Histology can characterize cell types and correlate them with known chemical insult, but only a jury can say if any particular conclusion will hold up in court. With toxicity effects, certainty is not always what you get.

Paracelsus said in 1538 that “All things are poison, and nothing is without poison; the dosage alone makes it so a thing is not a poison“. That observation is still true today.

Hazardous Metaphor On Fire in Ohio

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When I think “train wreck” I usually think of #45’s presidency. But here I refer to the actual Feb 3, 2023, Norfolk Southern train wreck in East Palestine, OH. A very long train carrying, among other things, tankers of hazardous chemicals had a derailment and fire near the small town of East Palestine, OH, along the southwest Pennsylvania border. It was a true calamity releasing hazardous chemicals, some of which caught fire and burned for days. It isn’t clear as yet as to what burned and what didn’t. The extent of pollution will eventually be released by authorities and monitored for years to come.

Early reports have claimed that the accident started with an overheated wheel bearing. It would be interesting learn how this could lead to a derailment. The root cause analysis will be interesting.

According to Wikipedia–

NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy explained that the train in this accident would not have been required to utilize the ECP braking system even if the FAST Act was not repealed, because the term high-hazard flammable train means a single train transporting 20 or more tank cars loaded with a Class 3 flammable liquid. As it had only three such placarded train cars, the derailed train did not meet the qualifications of a “high-hazard flammable” train.

ECP stands for Electronically Controlled Pneumatic brakes. The Wikipedia page describes the pathetic political kerfuffle over these brakes and how certain groups fought the requirements for them.

Photo from Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ohio_train_derailment

The Washington Post released a piece, dated Feb 18, 2023, about it showing some interesting pictures. One aerial shot captures the wreckage along with what the cars were carrying. A security camera caught the train moving along with a large fire blazing under one car minutes before entering town. The video has since been removed.

The burning vinyl chloride (and … ?) produced a toxic plume that by some accounts was also corrosive. I assume this to be due to the burning of an organic chloride releasing hydrochloric acid vapors. According to Wikipedia, of the 150 cars in the train some 38 train cars were derailed.

Substances in cars that were derailed according to the Washington Post-

  • Vinyl chloride
  • Polyethylene
  • Dipropylene and propylene alcohol
  • Semolina (a wheat flour)
  • Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
  • Ethylhexyl acrylate
  • Petroleum lubricating oil
  • Diethylene glycol
  • Isobutylene
  • Butyl acrylate
  • Benzene

Much was made in the news about burning vinyl chloride and noxious fumes, but I haven’t heard an accounting of what actually burned. Any release of acrylate monomers is especially unfortunate since as a group, they can be nasty lachrymators. This will take years to get through the courts.

Oil Prices Predicted to Rise in 2nd Half of 2023

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A recent report by Reuters says that global oil supply will exceed demand until mid-2023 when a steep rise in demand is expected, exceeding supply. The IEA’s Oil Market Report, January 2023, predicts record high demand for oil at 101.7 million bpd, an increase of 1.9 million bpd. Almost half of the demand growth for oil will result from China relaxing its regulations on COVID. Jet fuel will be the largest source of growth.

According to IEA, while Russian oil exports to the EU decreased, their diesel exports to EU surged-

Russian oil exports fell by 200 kb/d m-o-m in December to 7.8 mb/d, as crude shipments to the EU declined after the EU crude embargo and G7 price cap came into effect. Russian diesel exports surged to a multi-year high of 1.2 mb/d, of which 720 kb/d was destined for the EU.

From 50,000 ft it appears that the embargo of Russian crude oil into western refineries is somewhat offset by increased Russian diesel exports to EU. The EU is competing with increased imports of Russian diesel.

Hydraulic Fracturing Disclosure Mandates Work!

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The Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago has released a study in January, 2023, titled Internalizing Externalities: Disclosure Regulation for Hydraulic Fracturing, Drilling Activity and Water Quality by Pietro Bonetti, Christian Leuz, and Giovanna Michelon. This rather opaque title refers to a study performed to gauge the efficacy of mandating targeted transparency with hydraulic fracturing (HF).

For the study the authors used 4 ions considered signatures of HF-related activity- chloride, bromide, barium and strontium. These ions were considered the likely mode of detection if and when surface waters were affected. They are usually found in high concentration in flowback and produced water from HF wells and are considered signatures.

Some vocabulary-

Environmental externalities– the negative consequences on nature and biodiversity that result from human activity. (Google)

Internalities– An internality at the organizational level (an “organizational internality”) is the product of organizational practice, which part or all of an organization engages in that produces a cost or benefit within the organization, which is not considered when engaging in that practice.

Produced water– Produced water is composed of formation water, hydrocarbons, and fluids introduced during drilling.

Some Key Findings-

  • “Significant improvements were found in water quality based on signature salts after mandates are introduced.”
  • “After disclosure mandates, operators pollute less per unit of production, use fewer toxic chemicals, and cause fewer spills and leaks of HF fluids and wastewater.”
  • They “… show that disclosure enables public pressure and that this pressure facilitates internalization“.

Barium is injected into oil and gas wells in the form of barite (BaSO4) to densify the drilling fluid although ilmenite (FeTiO3) has been used as well.

The barium we can account for as being from the barite in the drilling fluid. But what about the strontium? A USGS article titled “Use of Strontium Isotopes to Detect Produced-Water Contamination in Surface Water and Groundwater in the Williston Basin, Northeastern Montana“

“Produced waters typically have large ionic strengths including large Sr concentrations compared to surface water and shallow groundwater. If the Sr isotopic compositions of produced waters differ substantially from surface water and groundwater, then the Sr ratios could be a valuable and sensitive indicator of small amounts of contamination from produced water.“

The strontium isotopic ratio (87Sr/86Sr) can be an indicator of produced water contamination in surface water.

China Aiming to Dominate Near Space

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2/10/23. News is breaking that China wants to militarize the near space environment, defined as 12 to 60 miles in altitude. News reports are appearing that claim that the balloon was carrying radio antennas capable of receiving and possibly geolocating radio transmissions over the US according to The Guardian. A senior State Department source said that a U2 flyby was able to determine that the balloon was being used for gathering signals intelligence.

Chinese balloon in rapid descent maneuver.

According to CNN, the military was aware of the balloon from the very beginning and avoided any unencrypted radio communications along the flight path.

The Chinese government reacted angrily to the downing of the balloon, continuing to maintain that it was for weather research. It seems to me that the public display of anger is mostly for internal consumption although there could be those elsewhere who actually believe the official story. From various reports, it appears that the Chinese government is embarrassed that it got caught in a lie. Like other autocracies, it screeches in displeasure when contradicted.

The balloon was judged to be absent any threat to the US by the North American Defense Command when it was discovered off Alaska. Shooting it down over the US was determined to be unsafe for the citizens below. Later, in a press conference, Gen. Glen VanHerck, Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command and United States Northern Command stated that the balloon debris that fell into the ocean is expected to be within a 1500 meter by 1500 meter field and in about 50 feet of water. The US Navy and Coast Guard are on station for recovery efforts.

From the press conference-

STAFF:  Let’s go to — let’s go to Jennifer Griffin, Fox.

Q:  Thanks, General VanHerck. Can I just ask you, on the record again, because there’s been a lot made in recent days still about why this was not shot down after it crossed or neared the Aleutian Islands? Can you just explain what you were watching then, what you were thinking then? What the decision-making process was. And why it — you didn’t have enough time to do so, if that was the case?

GEN. VANHERCK:  Thanks, Jennifer. It wasn’t time. It — the domain awareness was there as it approached Alaska. It was my assessment that this balloon did not present a physical military threat to North America, this is under my NORAD hat. And therefore, I could not take immediate action because it was not demonstrating hostile act or hostile intent. [emphasis mine] From there, certainly, provided information on the status of the whereabouts of the balloon. And moving forward, kept the department and the governor — the government of Canada in the loop as my NORAD, I have a boss in Canada as well. Over.

The General made an interesting comment about collecting intelligence-

Again, this is on record previously. We did not assess that it presented a significant collection hazard beyond what already exists in actionable technical means from the Chinese.

And with that said, you always have to balance that with the intel gain opportunity [emphasis mine]. And so there was a potential opportunity for us to collect intel where we had gaps on prior balloons, and so I would defer to the intel community, but this gave us the opportunity to assess what they were actually doing, what kind of capabilities existed on the balloon, what kind of transmission capabilities existed, and I think you’ll see in the future that the — that time frame was well worth it’s value to collect.

Furious Russians on Television

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In following the savage Putin war against Ukraine I have become partial to watching short video’s on TVP’s Military Mind via YouTube. TVP is Polish public television. They have unique and up to date war footage and coverage every episode. The war footage they get is mostly drone or smart phone in origin and is pretty rough but it gives a sense of what it is like on the ground. If you are expecting politically balanced war reporting, this is not the place to get it. This Polish station is clearly wary of Russia, or Putin at least, and it’s geopolitical intentions.

Recently there was a particularly disturbing clip on TVP taken from a Russian television show called The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov . Solovyov is a state television mouthpiece for Putin. The format has guests standing at widely separated podiums and taking turns venting their sometimes murderous outrage. In it was a guest named Yevgeny Satanovsky who is President of the Institute of the Middle East who gave a very calm and matter-of-fact opinion on how to deal with their true enemies, the Americans. Russian TV has been startingly vocal about their perception of the “American threat” and what we deserve for standing up against them. From the Daily Beast article–

“First of all, our main enemy is certainly the United States. What does the U.S. react to? They react to two things: the threat of physical annihilation and the liquidation of a certain number of military personnel. What we know based on wars in Vietnam and Korea is that several tens of thousands of annihilated American servicemen will cause the public opinion in the U.S. to be severely strained. I will repeat: not several thousand, like in Afghanistan or Iraq, but a certain number of tens of thousands. Who will liquidate them, where they will be liquidated and in what way is completely irrelevant, but this is one of the objectives if we want to influence the American leadership. We have absolutely nothing to lose.”

Satanovsky concluded that based on how the Americans fought in Korea and Viet Nam, America could be counted on to limit it’s involvement up to a maximum of several “tens of thousands” of US casualties. They feign awareness of our dirty little secret of squeamishness about the body count in foreign engagements. Satanovsky said several times that Russia must “liquidate” several tens of thousands of Americans in order to stop America’s support of Ukraine. This is the key to American disengagement he says.

Resorting to grotesque threats in the same program, Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, addressed the West with a line from an old Soviet movie: “Don’t worry, it won’t hurt when we cut your throat. We’ll slice just once and you’re in heaven… Our victory will take place wherever the Russian soldier will stop—and wherever he stops, from there he will never leave.”

Americanist Dmitry Drobnitsky commented: “In our country, we embraced one American we wouldn’t want to kill: that would be Tucker Carlson.” This is pathetic beyond words.

All of this is content generated by the host and his guests. But, their sentiments clearly are in line with the Kremlin’s interest in popular support for Putin’s war and antagonism towards the west. Much public sentiment seems to be tied up in national loss of face from the Russian military’s poor performance in the war but not so much in the actual need for the war. If you watch a few of these episodes you’ll see guests venting their white hot rage at America for it’s support of Ukraine peppered with references to WWIII and nuclear war with the west.

Propaganda, /ˌpräpəˈɡandə/, noun: information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote or publicize a particular political cause or point of view.

Americans should view some of this Russian television content to get an idea of the anti-American, anti-western bile being spewed continuously by the Russian propaganda apparatus. The Kremlin has been a master of propaganda for many years. They know the value of repeating big lies over and over. Unfortunately, certain Americans have been using this technique on our own population as well.

Hegemony, /həˈjemənē,ˈhejəˌmōnē/, noun: leadership or dominance, especially by one country or social group over others. “Germany was united under Prussian hegemony after 1871”

At present, Russia is publicly stamping their feet in outrage over western interference in their dirty little invasion, making every threat they can imagine. At the same time, actors for the state continue to conduct wave after wave of attacks on the west over the internet. Others are covertly interfering with our politics by trying to destabilize democracy. The overall goal the Russian’s share with China is to deflate American hegemony in the world and replace it with their own. You know, just your basic quest for world domination. It never ends.