When I think “train wreck” I usually think of #45’s presidency. But here I refer to the actual Feb 3, 2023, Norfolk Southern train wreck in East Palestine, OH. A very long train carrying, among other things, tankers of hazardous chemicals had a derailment and fire near the small town of East Palestine, OH, along the southwest Pennsylvania border. It was a true calamity releasing hazardous chemicals, some of which caught fire and burned for days. It isn’t clear as yet as to what burned and what didn’t. The extent of pollution will eventually be released by authorities and monitored for years to come.
Early reports have claimed that the accident started with an overheated wheel bearing. It would be interesting learn how this could lead to a derailment. The root cause analysis will be interesting.
NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy explained that the train in this accident would not have been required to utilize the ECP braking system even if the FAST Act was not repealed, because the term high-hazard flammable train means a single train transporting 20 or more tank cars loaded with a Class 3 flammable liquid. As it had only three such placarded train cars, the derailed train did not meet the qualifications of a “high-hazard flammable” train.
ECP stands for Electronically Controlled Pneumatic brakes. The Wikipedia page describes the pathetic political kerfuffle over these brakes and how certain groups fought the requirements for them.
The Washington Post released a piece, dated Feb 18, 2023, about it showing some interesting pictures. One aerial shot captures the wreckage along with what the cars were carrying. A security camera caught the train moving along with a large fire blazing under one car minutes before entering town. The video has since been removed.
The burning vinyl chloride (and … ?) produced a toxic plume that by some accounts was also corrosive. I assume this to be due to the burning of an organic chloride releasing hydrochloric acid vapors. According to Wikipedia, of the 150 cars in the train some 38 train cars were derailed.
Substances in cars that were derailed according to the Washington Post-
Vinyl chloride
Polyethylene
Dipropylene and propylene alcohol
Semolina (a wheat flour)
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
Ethylhexyl acrylate
Petroleum lubricating oil
Diethylene glycol
Isobutylene
Butyl acrylate
Benzene
Much was made in the news about burning vinyl chloride and noxious fumes, but I haven’t heard an accounting of what actually burned. Any release of acrylate monomers is especially unfortunate since as a group, they can be nasty lachrymators. This will take years to get through the courts.
A recent report by Reuters says that global oil supply will exceed demand until mid-2023 when a steep rise in demand is expected, exceeding supply. The IEA’s Oil Market Report, January 2023, predicts record high demand for oil at 101.7 million bpd, an increase of 1.9 million bpd. Almost half of the demand growth for oil will result from China relaxing its regulations on COVID. Jet fuel will be the largest source of growth.
According to IEA, while Russian oil exports to the EU decreased, their diesel exports to EU surged-
Russian oil exports fell by 200 kb/d m-o-m in December to 7.8 mb/d, as crude shipments to the EU declined after the EU crude embargo and G7 price cap came into effect. Russian diesel exports surged to a multi-year high of 1.2 mb/d, of which 720 kb/d was destined for the EU.
From 50,000 ft it appears that the embargo of Russian crude oil into western refineries is somewhat offset by increased Russian diesel exports to EU. The EU is competing with increased imports of Russian diesel.
For the study the authors used 4 ions considered signatures of HF-related activity- chloride, bromide, barium and strontium. These ions were considered the likely mode of detection if and when surface waters were affected. They are usually found in high concentration in flowback and produced water from HF wells and are considered signatures.
Some vocabulary-
Environmental externalities– the negative consequences on nature and biodiversity that result from human activity. (Google)
Internalities– An internality at the organizational level (an “organizational internality”) is the product of organizational practice, which part or all of an organization engages in that produces a cost or benefit within the organization, which is not considered when engaging in that practice.
Produced water– Produced water is composed of formation water, hydrocarbons, and fluids introduced during drilling.
Some Key Findings-
“Significant improvements were found in water quality based on signature salts after mandates are introduced.”
“After disclosure mandates, operators pollute less per unit of production, use fewer toxic chemicals, and cause fewer spills and leaks of HF fluids and wastewater.”
They “… show that disclosure enables public pressure and that this pressure facilitates internalization“.
Barium is injected into oil and gas wells in the form of barite (BaSO4) to densify the drilling fluid although ilmenite (FeTiO3) has been used as well.
“Produced waters typically have large ionic strengths including large Sr concentrations compared to surface water and shallow groundwater. If the Sr isotopic compositions of produced waters differ substantially from surface water and groundwater, then the Sr ratios could be a valuable and sensitive indicator of small amounts of contamination from produced water.“
The strontium isotopic ratio (87Sr/86Sr) can be an indicator of produced water contamination in surface water.
2/10/23. News is breaking that China wants to militarize the near space environment, defined as 12 to 60 miles in altitude. News reports are appearing that claim that the balloon was carrying radio antennas capable of receiving and possibly geolocating radio transmissions over the US according to The Guardian. A senior State Department source said that a U2 flyby was able to determine that the balloon was being used for gathering signals intelligence.
Chinese balloon in rapid descent maneuver.
According to CNN, the military was aware of the balloon from the very beginning and avoided any unencrypted radio communications along the flight path.
The Chinese government reacted angrily to the downing of the balloon, continuing to maintain that it was for weather research. It seems to me that the public display of anger is mostly for internal consumption although there could be those elsewhere who actually believe the official story. From various reports, it appears that the Chinese government is embarrassed that it got caught in a lie. Like other autocracies, it screeches in displeasure when contradicted.
The balloon was judged to be absent any threat to the US by the North American Defense Command when it was discovered off Alaska. Shooting it down over the US was determined to be unsafe for the citizens below. Later, in a press conference, Gen. Glen VanHerck, Commander, North American Aerospace Defense Command and United States Northern Command stated that the balloon debris that fell into the ocean is expected to be within a 1500 meter by 1500 meter field and in about 50 feet of water. The US Navy and Coast Guard are on station for recovery efforts.
From the press conference-
STAFF: Let’s go to — let’s go to Jennifer Griffin, Fox.
Q: Thanks, General VanHerck. Can I just ask you, on the record again, because there’s been a lot made in recent days still about why this was not shot down after it crossed or neared the Aleutian Islands? Can you just explain what you were watching then, what you were thinking then? What the decision-making process was. And why it — you didn’t have enough time to do so, if that was the case?
GEN. VANHERCK: Thanks, Jennifer. It wasn’t time. It — the domain awareness was there as it approached Alaska. It was my assessment that this balloon did not present a physical military threat to North America, this is under my NORAD hat. And therefore, I could not take immediate action because it was not demonstrating hostile act or hostile intent. [emphasis mine] From there, certainly, provided information on the status of the whereabouts of the balloon. And moving forward, kept the department and the governor — the government of Canada in the loop as my NORAD, I have a boss in Canada as well. Over.
Again, this is on record previously. We did not assess that it presented a significant collection hazard beyond what already exists in actionable technical means from the Chinese.
And with that said, you always have to balance that with the intel gain opportunity [emphasis mine]. And so there was a potential opportunity for us to collect intel where we had gaps on prior balloons, and so I would defer to the intel community, but this gave us the opportunity to assess what they were actually doing, what kind of capabilities existed on the balloon, what kind of transmission capabilities existed, and I think you’ll see in the future that the — that time frame was well worth it’s value to collect.
In following the savage Putin war against Ukraine I have become partial to watching short video’s on TVP’s Military Mind via YouTube. TVP is Polish public television. They have unique and up to date war footage and coverage every episode. The war footage they get is mostly drone or smart phone in origin and is pretty rough but it gives a sense of what it is like on the ground. If you are expecting politically balanced war reporting, this is not the place to get it. This Polish station is clearly wary of Russia, or Putin at least, and it’s geopolitical intentions.
Recently there was a particularly disturbing clip on TVP taken from a Russian television show called The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov. Solovyov is a state television mouthpiece for Putin. The format has guests standing at widely separated podiums and taking turns venting their sometimes murderous outrage. In it was a guest named Yevgeny Satanovsky who is President of the Institute of the Middle East who gave a very calm and matter-of-fact opinion on how to deal with their true enemies, the Americans. Russian TV has been startingly vocal about their perception of the “American threat” and what we deserve for standing up against them. From the Daily Beast article–
“First of all, our main enemy is certainly the United States. What does the U.S. react to? They react to two things: the threat of physical annihilation and the liquidation of a certain number of military personnel. What we know based on wars in Vietnam and Korea is that several tens of thousands of annihilated American servicemen will cause the public opinion in the U.S. to be severely strained. I will repeat: not several thousand, like in Afghanistan or Iraq, but a certain number of tens of thousands. Who will liquidate them, where they will be liquidated and in what way is completely irrelevant, but this is one of the objectives if we want to influence the American leadership. We have absolutely nothing to lose.”
Satanovsky concluded that based on how the Americans fought in Korea and Viet Nam, America could be counted on to limit it’s involvement up to a maximum of several “tens of thousands” of US casualties. They feign awareness of our dirty little secret of squeamishness about the body count in foreign engagements. Satanovsky said several times that Russia must “liquidate” several tens of thousands of Americans in order to stop America’s support of Ukraine. This is the key to American disengagement he says.
Resorting to grotesque threats in the same program, Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, addressed the West with a line from an old Soviet movie: “Don’t worry, it won’t hurt when we cut your throat. We’ll slice just once and you’re in heaven… Our victory will take place wherever the Russian soldier will stop—and wherever he stops, from there he will never leave.”
Americanist Dmitry Drobnitsky commented: “In our country, we embraced one American we wouldn’t want to kill: that would be Tucker Carlson.” This is pathetic beyond words.
All of this is content generated by the host and his guests. But, their sentiments clearly are in line with the Kremlin’s interest in popular support for Putin’s war and antagonism towards the west. Much public sentiment seems to be tied up in national loss of face from the Russian military’s poor performance in the war but not so much in the actual need for the war. If you watch a few of these episodes you’ll see guests venting their white hot rage at America for it’s support of Ukraine peppered with references to WWIII and nuclear war with the west.
Propaganda, /ˌpräpəˈɡandə/, noun: information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote or publicize a particular political cause or point of view.
Americans should view some of this Russian television content to get an idea of the anti-American, anti-western bile being spewed continuously by the Russian propaganda apparatus. The Kremlin has been a master of propaganda for many years. They know the value of repeating big lies over and over. Unfortunately, certain Americans have been using this technique on our own population as well.
Hegemony, /həˈjemənē,ˈhejəˌmōnē/, noun: leadership or dominance, especially by one country or social group over others. “Germany was united under Prussian hegemony after 1871”
At present, Russia is publicly stamping their feet in outrage over western interference in their dirty little invasion, making every threat they can imagine. At the same time, actors for the state continue to conduct wave after wave of attacks on the west over the internet. Others are covertly interfering with our politics by trying to destabilize democracy. The overall goal the Russian’s share with China is to deflate American hegemony in the world and replace it with their own. You know, just your basic quest for world domination. It never ends.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a primary source of data relating to global petroleum and distillate use. It follows production, transport and prices. In addition to supplying data, they provide some interpretation of the global picture. There is so much BS circulating about fuel costs that a credible source of information is welcome.
Oil tankers come in two varieties- clean and dirty. A clean tanker hauls low-sulfur distillates. A dirty tanker hauls crude oil. Since the invasion of Ukraine, tanker shipments from Russia to the west have fallen off and longer voyage shipments have increased. This has increased the cost of transport and floating storage of petroleum and distillates. In the time between February 2022 and November 2022, Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) rates from the Middle East to the US Gulf Coast (USGC) have more than tripled. The rates from USGC to Rotterdam have increased from $8.00 to more than $27.00 per metric ton. Rates of shipments on Suezmax ships have also tripled. Dirty tanker rates from Russian ports in the Baltic and Black Sea have gone up due to increased insurance rates. Also, add to all of this the increased cost of bunker fuel for longer voyages.
Shipments of LPG (propane) have been delayed by long waiting times for passage through the Panama Canal. Congestion at the Neopanamax locks has led to increased scarcity of Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGC). Propane is both a fuel and an industrial feedstock. Propane is dehydrogenated to propylene and used for the production of polypropylene. Propane is also a fuel whose demand is highly seasonal with greatest demand in the winter months. VLGCs in the Middle East are drawn out of the area by better rates in the US, creating scarcity there.
Reuters: Tesla announced that they will begin mass producing the Cybertruck, their ugly monstrosity of a pickup, by the end of 2023. Oh joy. Maybe with any luck it will go the way of the Edsel. I condemn the vehicle solely on the basis of styling. It looks like something from a 1970’s low budget made for TV SciFi movie.
DW News: That fetid little pouch mouse leader of North Korea fired more than a dozen missiles across the Northern Limit Line in a single day as well as 100 rounds of artillery shells, rattling the nerves of South Korea and Japan. There is speculation that the scurvy little pustule intends to test another nuclear weapon soon. The guy seems anxious for a fight. One day he’ll get it.
Reuters: I just don’t understand Israeli politics. Netanyahu is close to winning a majority of seats in the Knesset in Israel’s 5th election in 4 years. I thought he was shown to be corrupt and thrown out of power.
Reuters: In the trial of the January 6 incident, the Oath Keepers defendant said “I felt it was like a Bastille time in history,” referring to the raid on the Bastille in Paris that led to the French revolution. I don’t think that these guys understand just what “tyrannical” really means. Thinking of the milquetoast Biden as a tyrannical leader seems, well, stupid.
Today we hear about lithium batteries ad nauseum. Everyone is anxious to achieve a bright battery-powered electric future for happy motoring. Mineral exploration has revealed a few new sources of lithium and mines are increasing production. Battery factories are ramping up and R&D keeps turning out tweaks in battery technology. Many are betting on or prophesying the eventual phase-out of hydrocarbon fueled motor vehicles.
Lithium is quite scarce and is the 25th most abundant element on earth with about the same crustal abundance as chlorine although this may vary with the source. For the most part, lithium is fairly widely dispersed in the earth’s crust but it is subject to concentration by hydrothermal transport, forming evaporite deposits or briny ground water. Lithium is also a component of the mineral spodumene which can be found in pegmatites within some host formation. An uncommonly rich site was at the Foote Company Mine in the Kings Mountain Mining District of North Carolina. This operation produced lithium carbonate, Li2CO3. This is a common finished product because it can be removed from a solution of lithium chloride by treatment with sodium carbonate to precipitate the poorly soluble lithium carbonate.
This light metal has many chemical uses apart from batteries. For instance, organolithium reagents are a vital part of the chemical industry clocking in at about $1 billion per year in sales. Organolithium reagents are an indispensable part of organic synthesis. Switching to a reagent with a different metal usually does not work well, giving poor results or the wrong reactivity.
Today we’re seeing organolithium prices rise dramatically with little expectation that it will ever come back and no clue of how it plays out in the future. If a few select lithium reagents, e.g., LiAlH4 or n-butyllithium, go off the market, it will be a bad day for the organic synthetic industry as well as for chemical R&D in general. It is an unexpected consequence of the switch to reduced carbon EVs.
Vlad Putin has been ominously reminding us that he will not rule out the use of nuclear weapons if the Russian state is under existential threat, whatever that means. Maybe now is a good time to review just a few basics of nuclear weapons and what they do.
There are a large number of internet sites that go into great detail about the dark art and history of nuclear weapons. No need to duplicate that here. I’ll just give my take on a few points.
Remember the Morse curve from freshman chemistry? It describes the potential energy versus distance of two atoms at the scale of chemical bonds. The left side of the blue curve shows how steeply the repulsive energy potential rises (exponentially) with diminishing internuclear distance. By contrast, the attractive potential on the right of the blue curve flattens out with increasing interatomic distances. Keep this in mind.
When a fissile uranium-235 nucleus absorbs a neutron, the nucleus momentarily becomes unstable uranium-236. A stable nucleus has repulsive Coulomb forces between nucleons that are balanced at close proximity by the attractive strong nuclear force. The liquid drop model is useful for visualizing a nucleus as it fissions. On absorption of a neutron the uranium nucleus will distort to an elongated dumbbell shape leading to an imbalance of attractive and repulsive forces between nucleons. This can take the nucleus past the distance where the strong nuclear force attraction can hold it together. The strong nuclear force holding together nuclear particles (nucleons) falls off much faster with distance than does the Coulombic repulsion of protons. At the instant the nucleus separates into adjacent fragments, the two highly positively charged nuclei find themselves in very close proximity and are now only subject to net repulsive force. From the left side of the Morse Curve we can see that the repulsive force is exceedingly high in this moment. The highly repulsive potential energy is converted to kinetic energy at the moment the nucleus splits. The nuclear fragments fly apart at high velocity along with neutrons and dump thermal energy into the surrounding bulk material. But the kinetic energy of the fragments is not the only source of energy output.
Nuclear fission fragments are released in a highly excited state. Apart from their kinetic energy, nuclei have different energy levels with differing stabilities. A nucleus can undergo energy transitions from one state to another. These higher energy levels are called nuclear isomers and their stability can be expressed in terms of half-life. As fission fragments are formed they shed energy in the form of alpha, beta, gamma, and neutron emissions. Neutrinos are left out of this discussion for simplicity. As nuclei decay, they get closer to a stable ground state. Unstable nuclear fission products will decay in their characteristic ways, contributing to the overall energy release.
One challenge to weapons designers is to cause as many nuclei as possible to fission before the weapon undergoes “hydrodynamic disassembly” over the first 1 microsecond or less. After ignition the rapidly expanding plasma of the bomb core increases in volume and the probability of neutron collisions with nuclei diminishes rapidly. When a uranium or plutonium nucleus fissions, 2 or 3 neutrons are emitted which go on to strike other nuclei and induce fission in them. The cascading generations result in an avalanche of fissions. One of the ways to ensure that enough generations of fissions occur with enough neutrons flying about inside the supercritical assembly is to surround the core with neutron reflecting material. Ways of doing this can be found elsewhere.
One more thing about the strong nuclear force. This quote is from the Wikipedia entry for the strong interaction–
“The residual strong force is thus a minor residuum of the strong force that binds quarks together into protons and neutrons. This same force is much weaker between neutrons and protons, because it is mostly neutralized within them, in the same way that electromagnetic forces between neutral atoms (van der Waals forces) are much weaker than the electromagnetic forces that hold electrons in association with the nucleus, forming the atoms.“
A nuclear weapon produces a near instantaneous point source of energy release. These bombs can be detonated at or below ground or water level, or they can be set off in the atmosphere or space. The choice of where to do it depends on the intended effects. Subsurface bursts consume much of the explosive energy in moving soil or water which provides some radiation shielding to the surrounding area. Furthermore, bursts in contact with soil or water, especially when the fireball contacts the soil, tend to produce more fallout than air bursts. Air bursts deliver EMP, radiation and blast effects to a wider area, where “radiation” refers to neutrons, gamma and longer wavelengths of electromagnetic radiation. Thermal and blast effects produce considerable prompt destruction in the area surrounding the blast. As an approximate point source of energy, the intensity of the radiant energy falls off as some inverse square law. On an encouraging note, this means that radiation exposure falls off rapidly with distance. Distance is your friend.
There are numerous variations on the nuclear weapons theme. In the early cold war days, so called A-Bombs and H-Bombs were in the news. H-Bombs are also referred to as “hydrogen bombs or thermonuclear weapons.” An A-bomb, A for Atomic, was a basic implosion-type fission explosive and it was the typically the least powerful of the two. The H-Bomb was a nuclear fusion explosive that was triggered by a fission “primary.” That is, a fission trigger would be used to generate x-rays that would be “focused” onto fusion fuel, the “secondary,” which would initiate a runaway nuclear fusion explosion. The explosive yield of these bombs is much higher and can deliver a devastating blast to a larger area. Over time, the efficiency and compactness of these bombs has been greatly optimized.
The fusion explosive element was lithium-6 deuteride. The lithium atom would absorb a neutron, become unstable and decay into a helium-4 nucleus and a tritium (helium-3) nucleus. On a side note, in grad school I attended a seminar by Dieter Seebach from ETH, Zurich, who was talking about mechanistic work they’d done with lithium enolate complexes. He mentioned in passing that at that time, the mid-80’s, they had to be careful with stoichiometry because the commercial lithium that was available was often depleted of lithium-6 which was accumulated by the government for diversion to weapons. It was an unexpected brush with the cold war.
The main deleterious effect of radiation on human tissue lies in the formation of ions and radical pairs along the path of the penetrating radiation. The molecules of life are dissociated into ion pairs or radicals which may or may not collapse back to the original molecules. Given the amount of energy transferred into molecular dissociation along with random diffusion, the molecular destruction cannot be reversed. Heavy radiation particles like alpha particles produce a great many ions per centimeter of tissue penetrated. Penetrating, energetic photons like gamma rays produce relatively few.
There are 6 forms of hazardous radiation commonly considered- alpha, beta, gamma, x-ray, ultraviolet and neutrons. Of these 6, alpha, beta, gamma and neutrons are of nuclear origin. X-ray and ultraviolet are “electronic” in origin, that is they arise from electron transitions outside of the nucleus. The matter of the origin of x-rays is often confused in the literature with some authors implying that x-rays are from the nucleus. I prefer to define x-rays as resulting from electron transitions at the atomic level.
Of the 4 nuclear radiation types mentioned above, alpha, beta, and neutrons are particles. Gamma rays are photons. The atomic nucleus is comprised of so-called nucleons which are protons and neutrons. Nucleons are composite particles comprised of quarks and can bind by the strong nuclear force. Alpha particles are helium-4 nuclei and neutrons are neutral particles with approximately the same mass as a proton or about 1 atomic mass unit. Neutrons are not stable outside of the nucleus and have a half-life of about 15 minutes. Free neutrons will undergo radioactive decay into a proton, an electron, and an electron antineutrino.
Like gamma rays, neutrons are neutral in charge and have great penetrating ability. However, neutrons are effectively scattered by collisions with the hydrogen atoms of biomolecules and water. As a result neutrons can be very destructive to living tissue. As a side note, paraffin wax and water are effective shielding materials for neutrons due to the high concentration of hydrogen atoms. The collisions with hydrogen atoms in living tissues is a means of dumping neutron kinetic energy into the bulk matter, resulting in dissociation of biomolecules.
The so-called “neutron bomb” was an explosive that was designed to produce an abundance of neutrons at the expense of explosive yield. During the early Reagan years in the US there was much public handwringing about these bombs and their ability to kill people but leave buildings standing. People seemed indignant that somehow this reduced the value of human life below that of material things in the grand calculation of destruction.
The characteristic mushroom shape rising to the sky after a nuclear air burst is just the result of a rapid release of energy and bomb debris in the air, but close enough to the ground to suck up soil. The “cap” of the mushroom results from the convectively rising point-source expansion of incandescent, debris-filled air from the point of energy release. The “stem” of the mushroom is a column of air that has rushed in to replace the rapidly rising fireball, picking up soil as it does so. There is nothing intrinsically nuclear about a mushroom cloud. Chemical explosives can do this as well.
Initially the fireball produces a strong pulse of thermal radiation. As this fireball develops, there is a momentary drop in radiant thermal energy due to the increasing opacity of the fireball. With further expansion the opacity of the fireball decreases and the thermal output increases. The shock wave and out-rush of air is obviously destructive, but the radiant thermal effects are not to be underestimated.
Another major effect of a nuclear blast is nuclear fallout. A nuclear blast unavoidably produces radioactive substances from the fission process and from neutron activation. A low altitude air burst is particularly troublesome because ground debris is sucked up into the air and contaminated with radionuclides. This material does what all suspended solids do, namely it is carried by the wind and falls back to earth gradually, contaminating a wide swath of ground. The finest particles remain suspended and are transported long distances, eventually falling out with rain or snow.
Finally, there are psychological effects associated with “the bomb.” It inevitably produces dread fear in people. This fear buttresses the idea of Mutually Assured Destruction or MAD.
Now that we are in a nuclear state of mind, let’s turn to what Putin intends to do with his nuclear arsenal. The Russians are not suicidal. Putin is neither crazy nor stupid. Russians have long understood where a nuclear confrontation with the West can go. They know escalation of nuclear war to full-scale would lead to mutual destruction of Russia and the West. The Russians know that the West has a policy of no first use with nuclear weapons and that we are extremely reluctant to use them. For the West, there is a firebreak between conventional and nuclear weapons. For the Russians, it is more of a continuum. They know that sabre rattling with their nuclear arsenal creates a good deal of anxiety in the rest of the world and Putin has been pushing this threat envelope to new levels and will keep doing so. Once a KGB guy, always a KGB guy. Putin obviously understands the pragmatics of coercion and the influential value of torture.
What nobody knows for sure is what happens when a Russian nuclear war shot is released. What does the West do? Respond in kind quickly or play the long game and see what happens next. How much planning has gone into nuclear conflict between two states outside of NATO? When would NATO step in? NATO is presently taking the side of Ukraine in terms of supplying money and arms but is studiously avoiding direct conflict with Russia. On the positive side, at least right now we aren’t bogged down with an endless middle east whack-a-mole exercise.
The best use of nuclear arms has always been and remains the threat of their use. Russia has been using this threat aggressively, even going so far as to blame Ukraine for planning a false flag operation with a “dirty bomb.”
Putin wants to see the alliance of the US and Europe disintegrate. He wants to see the American hegemony in place since WW II collapse. He wants to see the dominance of US culture, military reach, the influential dollar and prevalence of the default English language peel away. He wants to see Novorossiya rise from the ashes of the fallen USSR. But his vision requires the conquest of territory and cultural domination. The armed extinction project for Ukraine in process now will be followed by rebuilding the captured land with Russian infrastructure, political leaders and culture.
Russia, in its constant state of paranoia, wrings its hands about the “threat” of NATO at its border. The cruel irony is that it is hard to imagine that the West would find the conquest Russia possible or even desirable. The US-lead coalition was unable to get the medieval opium poppy kingdom of Afganistan under control with conventional weapons. How is it possible that we could even consider a preemptive invasion of Russia? Russia’s historical paranoia seems entirely self-serving for its authoritarian leaders.
One way to tear apart western alliances is to help them along with the demise of liberal democracy. Quietly support the internal cultural rot of individual nations by encouraging radical nationalism, white supremacy and political disharmony. It is happening all around us and especially here in the US. As badly as I’d love to entirely blame #45, I have to admit that he has only prodded a sleeping dragon. The MAGA and QAnon crowds were already out there. #45 has rallied them and validated their seething anger and indignation.
Today we have many people of great influence like Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, Sean Hannity, nationalistic religious broadcasters, a stable of fringe political figures, and a mass of MAGA foot soldiers winning down-ticket elections moving their nationalistic and religious conservative agenda forward. Post-war baby boomers are being replaced with crowds and leaders who reject America’s present liberal democratic culture and leadership role in the world. There is growing open admiration for strongman authoritarian leadership. America’s experiment with fascism has already begun. Surprisingly, many Americans have expressed support for Putin.
Putin’s vicious attack on Ukraine, the rise of Trumpism with American fascism and a viral pandemic have overlapped within a narrow window of time- any one of which is a big problem by itself. It seems doubtful that MAGA right-wing crowds will have a change of heart in their vision for America. They will live out their lives within the same closed ideological space they are in presently. A political depolarization of America seems unlikely in the near term.
In this depressing global political climate it is more important than ever for the US to maintain its role as a thriving democratic culture and defender of those seeking democracy. Our leadership role in NATO must not waver against Russian aggression and expansionism. Russian expansionism will not end with Ukraine.
What will Putin do if he sees his internal political power structure collapsing? Will he ramp up the war to distract his opponents and rally the country? The present situation in Russia seems to suggest that rallying the population is more difficult than he anticipated.
It is hard to believe that Putin and his inner circle will change their ways in their lifetimes. They’ve painted themselves into a corner with their aggression and, like a trapped animal, will fight to the death. The cruel and murderous Joseph Stalin died in power. There is no reason to believe that Putin will be any different.
The President of South Korea, Yoon Suk-Yeol, was heard to utter into a hot mike that the US Congress were a bunch of idiots. To quote, he said “What an embarrassment for Biden, if these idiots refuse to grant it in Congress”. This occurred after a New York visit with President Biden after a discussion on US electric-vehicle subsidies. It is making headlines all over the internet. My schadenfreude detectors couldn’t resist this.
How defensive of the red, white and blue should you be if the guy is right? In theory the election process should select the best and brightest in the land. Instead, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Witness #45’s embrace of QAnon. If this was a story arc in a movie script, it would be rejected as too silly. Political parties and elections are supposed to exclude exemplars of bad judgement. I guess that nut jobs elect nut jobs.
And speaking of nut jobs, #45 was heard to say that presidents can declassify things “by thinking about it.” Even if this is true, it shouldn’t be as the present example illustrates. If this idiot learned to simply shut his damned mouth he’d have avoided half of his legal troubles automatically. He has his t*t in a wringer where it should be.
Lamentations on Chemistry 
