Category Archives: Current Events

Smokey Mountains of Colorado

Last evening the layers of mountain valleys to the west and north were filled with smoke from the High Park fire west of Ft Collins, Colorado. The valleys full of haze reminded me of the Smokey Mountains of Kentucky in the evening.

The fire is 25 miles as the crow flies from my house. The prevailing winds have been highly variable, but the recent front that passed through caused the smoke to blow towards my home town over the weekend. The air is usually clear enough to see Pikes Peak 100 miles to the south. But of late the visibility and air quality has been quite poor.

Colorado has seen waves of growth over the years, much of it along the I-25 corridor and the major east/west routes through the mountains. A common aspiration here is to have a home in the mountains. The housing boom of the last 20 years lead to the spread of MacMansions perched on mountain tops and slopes. Buyers with enough wealth or credit were able to pay the high expense of building a dream home in a remote location and pay for drilling a well in hard rock and running a long powerline up to the site.

What we are seeing is the negative side of having a home in the forest- crown fires that burst through the forest at speeds that surprise everyone. The thermal emissivity of a stand of flaming pine trees is quite high, first dessicating adjoining trees then heating the pine resins to the ignition point either by radiant energy, flame impingement, or by the spread of embers.

A major worry for the High Park fire in particular is the effect on rivers and municipal drinking water reservoirs by rain and snow runoff from the burned ground.  A smokey flavor is desirable for a barbeque sauce but not for tapwater.

This fire seems to be headed for the number one forest fire in Colorado history. Time will tell.

ChemSpider Magic with LASSO

Of late I have been concerned with R&D information and various homebrew means of storing it and retrieving it. Institutionalizing R&D results into easily accessed knowledge can roll into a real hairball if you’re not careful. More on that another time.

My adventures with CHETAH 9.0 have caused me to look deeply into SMILES strings and what utility might be found there. This lead me to rediscover ChemSpider and the many services it provides for free to the user.

Consider the following: if you generate a SMILES structure of acetylsalicylic acid, say, from Chemdraw, O=C(O)C1=C(OC(C)=O)C=CC=C1, and use this character string as a search term in ChemSpider, it will take you to the entry for aspirin. What you get is a treasure trove of information on this substance. Go to ChemSpider, cut and paste the above SMILES string into the search box, and let her rip. I’m not your Momma. Just try it.

The breadth of references is encyclopedic.  But the truly amazing part is found when you scroll to the end of the page. There is a drop down window for SimBioSys LASSO. ChemSpider is working to provide LASSO data on its large database of compounds.  LASSO generates a structure and grinds it through a neural net processor module and produces a score between zero and one. The closer the score is to 1.00, the greater the surface conformity or compatibility of the ligand to a target receptor site.  As you would expect, there is a high score associated with aspirin and the COX-1 receptor. From what I can tell, the software is self-learning in some fashion.

The uses are many. Substances can be screened for drug-like attributes within the 40 receptor types provided.  I would like to hear from someone who might have something to say about the use of LASSO for the estimation of possible toxic effects of substances that have not been biologically tested. I fully realize the hazards of this, but perhaps LASSO scores might help flag particular substances for closer examination by testing.

CT Scans. Who is monitoring a patient’s radiation dose?

The matter of medical x-radiation dosing is surfacing again. I wrote a post about this in 2009.

Let’s get to the core of the matter. Physicians need to take charge of this since only they have any real control. It’s a pretty goddamned simple concept. Doc’s who are calling for x-ray’s need to begin recording calculated dosing from this hazardous energy. If it is too troublesome for them, then the x-ray techs should record the information.

CT scanning seems to be problematic. There is no business incentive to hold back on CT use in for-profit settings. I suppose that documentation would only reveal the extent and magnitude of x-ray use. It would be fodder for malpractice law firms.

I can just see the billboards- Have you or a loved one ever gotten a tan from x-rays? If you have, call Dooleysquat, Schwartz and Schmuck for a free consultation. Do it Now!

Kansas tries harder to drown the beast.

I know there are a lot of smart people in Kansas. It’s just that they tend not to end up in elective office there. The latest examples of Kansas-being-Kansas are staggering. Take for example the matter of Gov. Brownback’s massive tax cut on business profits.  From what I understand by reading news material from the corporate controlled news media, Kansas, under Brownback and the GOP controlled legislature, have managed to end taxes on business income.  The fact that Koch Industries is based in Wichita is more than a little coincidental, I’m guessing.

Evidently the GOP “leaders” in the KS legislature have been dueling it out with Missouri, awarding tax incentives for companies to move across the border to the Kansas side. This kind of fratricidal fiduciary hijinks is not uncommon. All states are eager to raid other states for businesses.  Tax concessions are the pieces-of-eight in this interstate piracy. Our states are in a race to the bottom in their pursuit of business transplants.

Of interest relating to Kansas is this little nugget.  AMC Entertainment Inc. announced that it is moving to Leawood, KS, from the Missouri side. But, about the same time it was announced that the Dalian Wanda Group would buy AMC Entertainment. Dalian Wanda Group is about to reap the benefits of Brownback’s tax policy by operating in KS.  A Chinese company makes one of the largest buyouts of a US company and lands just in time in the Kansas tax haven.

Let me speak plainly. A Chinese company owns a largish US company headquartered in Kansas will be taking advantage of infrastructure put in place over generations by hard working Kansans and US citizen taxpayers. All have contributed in many ways to Kansas infrastructure by way of grants for electrification, roads & highways, universities, military bases, as well as protection by all of the branches of the US military.  This Chinese company will enjoy greatly reduced tax liabilities by operating in Kansas. The controlling stockholders are Chinese and will benefit from operation within US borders at the expense of Kansans as a result of the Kansas GOP. These foreign owners will instead allow their employees to contribute to the public coffers.

The burden for expenses related to responsibilites previously administered by the state will be unpooled and relocalized.  The purpose and benefit of taxation has been that pooling funds can bring the benefits of civilization to the state without having to rely on the Darwinistic forces of the market. It is ironic that a state so rabidly against evolution has embraced such a Darwinistic approach to social policy.

The stated intent of GOP leaders (like Dick Army, etc.) cloaked  behind the curtain has been to “drown the beast”. That is, kill federal and state government by unfunding it. You do that by electing serial government haters like Gov. Brownback and possibly by having the Koch boys behind the scenes pulling strings. Not only has Kansas stuffed a dagger in the chest of civic administration of government services, they have opened the pipeline for profits to stream out of the US from a state tax haven from the operation of a corporation by a Chinese conglomerate.

The Kansas GOP has accelerated the transition of power from a constitutionally backed system with structural transparency to the private concentration of power with no transparency and no civic obligation.  Way to go boys. The full import of this should be evident in a generation when most of the GOP legislators who enacted this shit sandwich will be long gone.

Make no mistake. The GOP euphamism of “drowning the beast” is really about the transfer of power from the many to the few. The slogans about liberty and freedom are a plush teddy bear for the masses of low information voters to embrace. Power is in the ability to allocate resources. As the public loses its ability to allocate resources, it loses power. As private or corporate interests accumulate resources, their ability to exercise power rises.  There is nothing new here. Power always concentrates.

[Note:  A copy of this essay appears in the Daily Kos.]

Facebook IPO- Not a banner day

The IPO of Facebook stock on friday was a bad business day on two accounts.  Most obviously, the anticipated share price “pop” didn’t happen by the end of the trading day. FB shares opened at $38.00 per share and ended the day at $38.23 per share.  According to Andrew Bary at Barron’s, early investors paid an average of $1 per share. With lockup provisions on 1.8 billion shares expiring in the August to November time-frame, large scale selling could drive down share prices later in the year.

The Barron’s article quoted a tech trader who said

“Like most IPOs in tech land, Facebook is geared toward enriching early investors and employees while sticking public investors with shares burdened with poor voting rights and high growth expectations.”

There is nothing new in this statement of condition. Cashing in one’s shares in a risky investment of time and money in a startup is a commonly executed means of capturing reward. Risk takers are entitled to a payoff when a venture achieves success.

But this trader’s sentiment reveals something deeper about business and it’s role in our culture. This was a public offering of fractional ownership whose sole means of income is advertising. It is clearly designed to transfer future risk to public investors who have precious little voice in corporate governance.

Facebook has offered public investors a kind of sh*t sandwich: A chance to buy into a public corporation that is structurally configured to retain controlling interest by one of the founders.

Has Facebook created wealth or is it just capturing the market share of other advertisers? Facebook, like Google, is a creature of advertising. And, like Google, it is a magic version of the Yellow Pages that automatially anticipates or finds the listings you may want. But it is more than that. It is a directory that supplies the listings it wants you to have. Instead of the full page ads of the advertising print period where trees were actually pulped to provide something called “paper”, today’s ads are hot links to the advertisers website.

Facebook and Google are really just newer versions of the old circus of broadcasting. Broadcasters supply eyeballs and ears to adverisers who then have tens of seconds to mesmerize viewers and listeners with their magic. It is like rattling a stick in a bucket of swill. Facebook supplies amusement as a so-called social network and Google supplies entertainment as well as utilitarian services.

It was also a bad business day for broadcasters covering the FB IPO.  All of the cable television business progamming was set on this blessed and much anticipated initial public offering. Regrettably, the event was delayed for technical reasons until mid day EDT. When the stock was finally released, “experts” were standing by to render their opinion on the last 20 seconds of market activity.  Like all stock market data, it is marked by a jittery, noisy curve, sometimes trending upwards and then downwards.  Over one minute anything looks like a trend.

Faced with the possibility of hours of air time to fill before something exciting happens, the CNBC talking heads natter on and on with a variety of experts who natter on and on. All-the-while stock footage of the NYSE floor and the post-pubescent hoodie-boy CEO of FB loop cycles endlessly. For this we allocate broadcast spectrum?

In the end, there was no excitement. FB closed the day pennies above to where it started. I like to think this is because investors aren’t as foolish as the cynical people who are behind the offering believe on the opening day, at least.

An excellent analysis of Facebook valuation has been posted by Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU.

Research Squatters. When Universities and Corporate Behemoths Collaborate.

Recently I had the good fortune to get to meet for a consultation with a young and talented chemistry professor (Prof X) from a state university elsewhere in the US. Prof X has an outstanding pedigree and reached tenure rather rapidly at a young age. This young prof has won a very large number of awards already and I think could well rise to the level of a Trost or a Bergman in time.

Not long ago this prof was approached by one of the top chemical companies in the world to collaborate on some applied research. What is interesting about this is that the company has begun to explore outsourcing basic research in the labs of promising academic researchers. I am not aware that this company has done this to such an extent previously.  They do have an impressive corporate research center of their own and the gigabucks to set up shop wherever they want. Why would they want to collaborate like this?

R&D has a component of risk to it. Goals may not be met or may be much more expensive that anticipated.  Over the long term there may be a tangible payoff, but over the short term, it is just overhead.

The boards and officers of public corporations have a fiduciary obligation to maximize the return on investment of their shareholders. They are not chartered to spread their wealth to public institutions. They have a responsibility to minimize their tax liability while maximizing their profitability. Maximizing profit means increasing volume and margins. Increasing margins means getting the best prices at the lowest operating expense possible.

Corporate research is a form of overhead expense. Yes, you can look at it as an investment of resources for the production of profitable goods and services of the future. This is what organic growth is about. But that is not the only way to plan for future growth. Very often it is faster and easier to buy patent portfolios or whole corporations in order to achieve a more prompt growth and increase in market share.

The thing to realize is that this is not a pollenization exercise. The company is not looking to just fertilize research here and there and hope for advances in the field. They are a sort of research squatter that is setting up camp in existing national R&D infrastructure in order to produce return on investment. Academic faculty, students, post-docs, and university infractructure become contract workers who perform R&D for hire.

In this scheme, research groups become isolated in the intellectual environment of the university by the demands of secrecy agreements. Even within groups, there is a silo effect in that a student working on a commercial product or process must be isolated from the group to contain IP from inadvertant disclosure. The matter of inventorship is a serious matter that can get very sticky in a group situation. Confidential notebooks, reports, and theses will be required.  Surrender of IP ownership, long term silence on ones thesis work, and probably secret defense of their thesis will have to occur as well.

While a big cash infusion to Prof X may seem to be a good thing for the professor’s group, let’s consider other practical problems that will develop. The professor will have to allocate labor and time to the needs of the benefactor. The professor will not be able to publish the results of this work, nor will the university website be a place to display such research. In academia, ones progress is measured by the volume and quality of publications. In a real sense, the collaboration will result in work that will be invisible on the professors vitae.

Then there is the matter of IP contamination. If Prof X inadvertantly uses proprietary chemistry for the professor’s own publishable scholarly work, the professor may be subject to civil liability. Indeed, the prof may have to avoid a large swath of chemistry that was previously their own area.

This privatization of the academic research environment is a model contrary to what has been a very successful national R&D complex for generations. Just have a look in Chemical Abstracts. It is full of patent information, to be sure, but it is full of technology and knowledge that is in the public domain. Chemical Abstracts is a catalog and bibliography that organizes our national treasure. Our existing government-university R&D complex has been a very productive system overall and every one of us benefits from it in ways most do not perceive. We should be careful with it.

Tempest in a Teapot. Philosophy-v-Physics.

A minor snit has broken out between outspoken physicist Lawrence Krauss of Arizona State University and, well, the philosophers of the world. Krauss has become a darling of the cable TV world of NatGeo and the Science Channel. It seems that you can’t swing a dead cat without knocking over the same dozen television astronomer/cosmologists and quantum physicists. This rotating crew of scientists are filmed on various locations straining to explain the universe in terms of string theory, dark matter, and quantum wierdness using language with a Fog Index of 8 or less.

I’m not slighting these folks in the least. Using the English language to convey the essence of these concepts is difficult, as is preventing the reflexive use of the remote control by viewers with the attention span of a house cat.

Anyway, Krauss has managed to inflame those philosophers who pay attention to popular science.  His latest book, A Universe from Nothing: Why there is Something Rather than Nothing, has precipitated this argument. I don’t care about the merits of his argument here. The reader is invited to dive in.

What I am writing about is the social and intellectual mistake Krauss made. Like all physical scientists, he is a reductionist. The drive for a ToE, Theory of Everything, is the ultimate act of reductionism. His assertion that philosophy is obsolete in the face of discoveries in physics and the emergence of big subassemblies of a ToE has been received with dismay by philosophers.  A large fraction of people (adults, anyway) are hardwired to be receptive to mysticism and no amount of handwaving, no matter how logical and crisp, is going to cause the bell curve to skew substantially away from cherished mystical beliefs.

Krauss has fallen into the same trap as those in the 19th century who may have declared that physics was pretty much complete with Newtonian mechanics. While quantum mechanics provides a template for the description of how particles behave constrained to a region of space, it fails as a replacement for philosophy. That is, quantum mechanics and cosmology do not provide any concise analysis on how people should treat each other, how to conduct a worthwhile life, or how to interpret what the meaning of quantum mechanics is in your life.

This is the realm of philosophy and religion and these kinds of questions must be freshly examined by each generation born into this strange universe. The meaning of existence is not yet settled science.

Mining Asteroids

The founders of the Silicon Valley startup, Planetary Resources, have announced plans for mining asteroids for valuable metals. Peter Diamandis, Eric Anderson and investors including director James Cameron and Google CEO Larry Page are behind this venture.

I’m trying to be positive here. Perhaps these fellows should visit some earthly mines and see what it takes to break actual rock and extract the value from it.

Earth bound ore bodies near the surface are commonly the result of concentration by hydrothermal flows. In the absence of water-based geothermal concentration processes, or recrystallization of PGM’s in magma chambers, the reality of economically viable ore bodies in asteroids is an open question. A lot of survey work needs to be done to answer this question.

Oh, and one more thing. When you blast rock on a largish planet like earth, the fragments fall back to the ground. This won’t happen on an itty bitty asteroid.

The talk about recovering water from asteroids to subsequently crack and make propellant is a large challenge all by itself.

I predict that civilization will slump back to a 19th century Dickensian-style world of robber barons and sharecroppers before any hardware gets to an asteroid.  Children will ask “Momma, what’s an iPad?” as they walk from their rundown subdivision to a quonset where they strip insulation from wire for copper to barter for food. It’s all so clear now …

Time to Leave Afghanistan

It is time to withdraw our soldiers from Afghanistan. The latest example of moral depravity exhibited by members of our armed forces shows the effects of prolonged war on our citizens. The US is at war with not so much an insurgency as an idea. An idea is not a form of concentrated power. It is a form of distributed power. You can’t take out a popular idea with a bomb or a 50 cal round.  We are occupying a “country” which exists by default as a void between other countries. Afghanistan is a collection of districts occupied by a weak confederation of tribes who adhere to seventh century cosmology and religion.  A coalition of like minded religious zealots are in the process of retaking the political void which is only weakly occupied by a corrupt, reluctant and treacherous Afghan government.

These latest instances of outrageous and indefensible behavior with Afghan corpses by US forces completely negates whatever moral high ground we once occupied. We have put our troops in a place and circumstance which is unwinnable. We have exposed good men and women to unspeakable horrors and memories.  There are too many public dots to connect now that outline our own corruption in the execution of foreign policy in Afghanistan.

War inevitably corrupts its participants. Our own enthusiasm for war reflects poorly upon us and we must get a grip on this.

Thorium power. Will the US get on board?

Everybody knows by now that China is flush with rare earth elements (REE’s), or at least to the uppermost extent that any country can be. And, everybody knows the market hijinks that China has planned with REE’s, namely, buy all the REE’s you want from them, as long it is in a value-added manufactured good.

What most folks are probably not aware of is that the ore bodies that carry the REE’s (Sc, Y, and the Lanthanides) are usually enriched in thorium and/or uranium.  So much so that no little amount of skill and equipment is needed to separate Th & U from the REE’s. The US and USSR developed much of this separations technology post WWII and for decades thereafter. Much of this art is in the US patent literature. The rest of it is buried in dusty, obscure volumes on library shelves.

The art of REE separation is arcane and somewhat isolated from the rest of inorganic chemistry owing to its specialized nature. Most of the separations art relies on leaching and elaborate solvent exchange schemes.  Ion exchange technology is also highly represented in this domain.  Few chemistry students are exposed to this science and most of the cold war era practitioners are retired, ailing, or deceased.

Chemistry students rarely see this art for another reason. It is generally practiced by engineers and metallurgists who seem to be in a perpetual phase separation from the standard chemistry curriculum. I would argue that this distinction is mainly cultural.

Back to the Chinese. While Americans have been busy yammering about drill-baby-drill, or following the escapades of reality show imbeciles or a thousand other idiotic distractions, we have failed to focus pressure on our government to consider technologies like thorium power or molten salt reactor technology.

While a gullible and frankly, cognitively impaired, vocal minority in the US accept that we have a right to $<3.00/gal gasoline, we are being distracted into the warm feather bed of self-congratulation and delusion about our supposed exceptionalism. I sense that our culture is beginning to show a type of exceptionalism that is not very admirable.

While American voters are being spun up into a frenzy again about commodity oil prices, China has been promulgating its national industrial policies. American industrial policy seems to be about lining the citizens up for accelerating consumption. China’s industrial policy emphasis seems to be about putting infrastructure and capacity in place for exports as well as anticipated internal consumption.

China has a substantial presence in mineral rich Africa. China imports copper ore from Peru and Chile. Not finished copper- but copper ore. China keeps the value added steps for its own coffers. Most distressingly, China is busily working on copper mining in Afganistan while our kids fight and die there in an intractable cultural shooting war. Did you get that?

China is mining in Afganistan and Americans are paying to die there.

While the US pays to make the world safe for commerce, China is spreading out over the world looking for scarce resources like copper under the umbrella of stability.  While China mines copper in Afganistan, the USA consumes copper in Afganistan in the form of brass bullet casings ejected over the landscape. Brass is an alloy of copper and zinc.

Is this a diatribe against all things Chinese? Absolutely not. If anything, China has skillfully mastered it’s range of control and made purposeful, long term plans to reach its goals. Like its plans for Thorium-based molten salt reactors. Thorium power is undergoing a bit more examination now, as described in this Forbes article.

Here is a point I’d like to get across. The present boom in REE exploration and mining is in a good place for thorium extraction. If thorium were to be part of the extracted value rather than a costly sidestream in need of segregation and remediation, then the subsequently improved economics of REE extraction and greater availability might translate to lower REE costs for users of rare earth metal technology.

There is a crucial synergy here that the US would do well to exploit. But it requires vision, long term planning, and regulatory flexibility in the handling, accumulation, and processing of thorium.  These attributes the US now lacks. The current lead pipe doctrines of American politics represents a critical systems failure of our culture. We cannot continue to regard middle-ground compromise as total forfeiture.