Category Archives: Current Events

Was Abe Lincoln Wrong?

When I hear the  snide comments of Gingrich and Limbaugh or witness the rebirth of Tom DeLay, I begin to wonder if President Abraham Lincoln wasn’t mistaken in trying to keep the Union together. Southern Conservatism with its fanatical Baptist dominionist wingnut demographic has even perverted basic conservative values of thrift and small government. It’s expensive military fetish and its efficient marshaling of extreme nationalism have cast precious little light on the complex problems of our time, just a devisive heat.

The epoch of the “Bush II Wild-Assed Excursion in American Civilization” has lead to the present disintegration of the GOP from the Grand Old Party to the Confederate Splintered Old Party of serial filibustering demagogues.

Perhaps we should set aside a few states for the Southern Conservatives to set up a Confederacy where lassaiz faire and the Southern Baptist Convention can run unfettered in the shady green pastures of God’s marketplace. Hell, throw in Texas for good measure- except for Houston. Houston would be a independent city-state a la Hong Kong. Newt can be the new Jeff Davis of the Confederacy of Theocratic States.

Let the southern conservatives luv each other up in their own country. They can preach their sticky doctrine to a ready made choir all day long. It would be worth having a Republican Homeland seccession if it will shut the bastards up.

Thoughts on the Panic of 2008

While the congress and the various media are grinding their battle axes and taking swings at each other, I hope that we all remember that the absence of suitable regulations on the financial markets is really not the cause of the Panic of 2008. The cause of this trainwreck can be found in the practices and mindsets of certain elite players in the market. This is a pathology of the marketplace, our culture, and ultimately, of human behavior.  

Blaming government for the excesses of the market is like blaming your doctor for your riotous and drunken merrymaking.  In the end, the participants in this orgiastic financial frenzy should be called to account for themselves in front of something like an angry mob. The rest of the herd needs to cull the troublesome members, either through the courts or through social stigma like excommunication or shame.

Obviously, the government was asleep at the wheel in its regulatory duties. But to some extent it was plainly maneuvered out of the way of Wall Street.  While we are hurling epithets at congress, we should not forget that the boards of directors and executives of the troubled corporations have neglected their fiduciary responsibilities to the shareholders. These are the same smug bastards who will hammer you if you miss a mortgage payment. Surely they should be held to a similar accountability as a mortgagee.

As long as we are considering accountability, the show business component of this is the broadcast media (the Fourth Estate). The commercialization and show business aspect of news reporting can only lead to structural biases that favor the needs of the corporation. If news and commentary is regarded as entertainment (ie., Mad Money, Rush Limbaugh, etc), then it is inevitable that it will be conducted like any other carnival enterprise- it becomes a traveling freakshow meant to attract the eyes of a gawking but uncritical public.

It is not in the nature of corporate governance to accept divisions that are not profitable. Important but dry news will be replaced with anything that meets the definition of “compelling”.  Panem et circenses. Celebrity becomes a credential and the drama of controversy becomes more important than the particulars of the case.

If the information feedback loop to other members of the marketplace is filtered by self-serving players, then the equilibrium is fundamentally shifted in favor of the owners of the filter. Inescapably, the broadcast media are part of this whole Panic phenomenon.

Pi Day 3-14

Another magic day is before us- Pi Day on Saturday, March 14 (that’s 3-14). Lets hope that the celebration does not lead to jail time or excessive brain damage. Pi to a million decimal places, a partial listing of which is below-

3.
1415926535897932384626433832795028841971693993751058209 7494459230781640628620899862803482534211706798214808651 3282306647093844609550582231725359408128481117450284102 7019385211055596446229489549303819644288109756659334461 2847564823378678316527120190914564856692346034861045432 6648213393607260249141273724587006606315588174881520920 9628292540917153643678925903600113305305488204665213841…

In the interest of preserving bandwidth, I’ve deleted most of the first 50 thousand or so numbers.

…5115448491268584126869589917414913382057849280069825519 5740201818105641297250836070356851055331787840829000041 5525118657794539633175385320921497205266078312602819611 6485809868458752512999740409279768317663991465538610893

Bronx Cheer for National Geographic

After supper last night I parked in front of the tubule and switched on the Discovery Channel. There was an intriguing program on the Cueva de los Cristales (Cave of Crystals) in Mexico. The Naica mine has become famous for its gigantic selenite crystals (calcium sulfate). National Geographic filmed a program on these wondrous crystals and it has been broadcast on the Discovery Channel.

What has raised my ire on this is not the production value. As usual, the cimematography was superb. What is disappointing is the story they chose to tell.

What I have noticed in the public science programming world is a particular weakness that quietly infects writers, directors, and producers. The weakness has to do with the fear of boring their audience. Rather than risk a pandemic of somnolence, writers kick up the script a notch with undercurrents of intrigue and a suggestion of danger for the intrepid parties crawling in the muck or harassing gators.

That’s fine. It never hurts to plan for short attention spans in the audience. But what suffers is a sense of proportion. When the focus shifts from the subject of the expedition to the members of the expedition, the program crosses the line into the tawdry world of show business.

Yes, it is quite hot in the cave. Yes, heatstroke is an issue to be wary of. But, what about the crystals?? What are they made of? Where is the water from which they were precipitated from? How does crystallization work?

And, where is the chemist on the team? National Geographic brought together a geologist, a planetary astronomer, a nuclear physicist, a biologist, and a few others who were not identified. This is a common omission on the part of people outside of the chemical sciences. Nobody knows what the hell we do!

For the showbiz effect, they brought in a planetary astronomer, Dr. Chris McKay, to examine the cave for possible implications on Martian exploration and the Evolution of Life. To media people, science equals- 1) Space Science, 2) Medicine, 3) Computer Science, and 4) oh, did I say Space Science?

It turns out I used to know Chris McKay. He was a TA in an astronomy course I took at the University of Colorado ca 1978. He was a geat guy and, unlike other misfits misanthropes bed wetters grad students in the astro/geophysics program, an attentive and caring instructor. He was (and is) a true believer in space exploration. We spent a long and chilly evening together in the Sommers Bosch Observtory at CU manually guiding the 24 inch telescope on a guide star for some lengthy time exposures of a string of galaxies. We used 3×5 Tri-X plates hypered in H2.

This showbiz reflex is a chronic condition and I am sorry to see National Geographic succumb to it.

Static in the Attic

Some scattered thoughts and links, each too small for a single post-

Given that we are near planting season for 2009, I wonder how the loan picture is for farmers wanting to borrow money for the upcoming crop. It’d be a form of catastrophy if money was too tight for farmers to buy seed, fertilizer, and diesel.

One of my favorite reference books is by Francis X. McConville, The Pilot Plant Real Book, 2nd Edition, FXM Engineering and Design, 2007;  ISBN 0-9721769-2-6.

Glass blowing supplies are available here. Here is some coursework.

The Very Large Array (VLA) sits 50 or so miles west of Socorro, NM, just south of Hwy 60. A few hours east on Hwy 60, across White Sands, is Roswell, NM.

Atomic tourists should know that the Trinity site is open only twice per year: once in April and once in October.

Godwins Law.

A new POS (warning- really bad language!).

The Spring Burn

Spring is surely approaching because the local farmers are burning their irrigation ditches in preparation for the first release of irrigation water. A few minutes ago I passed a farmer driving a tractor with his ditch burner flaring away. It consisted of a long boom attached to the rear hitch and was fitted with a downward facing burner that rides over the ditch. This flame from above brings sudden hellfire to field mice and rabbits crouching in the ditch. Potbellied farmer dudes with shovels and a 4-wheeler watch the fire from a distance ready to spring into action if the fire gets out of control.  A hawk studies the activity from atop a nearby power pole.

The local reservoirs have been silently filling up with water in preparation for the seasons long discharge into the downhill maze of irrigation canals. Things are happening in the background.

Questions about health care costs

When one goes to the doctor for an examination or to have an office procedure performed, notes are made on the patients chart and procedure codes are recorded. Somewhere, a person enters these codes to the accounting system which then makes a ledger entry and generates an invoice.

Here is a crude guess (factor of 2 estimate) as to the labor costs involved for a 2-Doc office in a quiet town, nominally- 2 MD’s @ $250 k each, 2 PA’s at ~$35 k each, 2 office clerks @$25 k each. Add up the salaries plus 25 % for taxes and benefits, it adds to $775,000 per year in direct labor costs.

If we assume the mortgage or rent is $3000 per month, insurance on the facility is $8,000 per year (a guess), and utilities are $5000 per year (a guess), we can add another $49,000 bringing the total to $824,000 per year. 

Spread over 52 weeks at 48 hours per week, the overhead cost runs at $330.01 per hour. If the docs make $150,000 per year, the overhead comes down to $229.97 per hour. In a town away from the major population centers, the real cost is probably between the two numbers. In major markets, the costs may be 2x or more higher than the scribbling I have proposed.

At $330/hr, the labor overhead cost is $5.50 per minute. At $230/hr, the labor overhead cost is $3.83 per minute. This simple mindedly assumes that the docs are running the clinic and not a hospital. So, while a patient rattles away about a dream from the previous night, or gives a recitation of every manner of ache and pain in the last 5 years, the clock is ticking away. It is easy to see why most offices have multiple examination rooms and the doc spends all day popping in and out of these rooms. It is driven by the need to keep up the rate of production.

A practice is a business and there is a reasonable expectation of some kind of net profit. If in this labor intensive business the previous overhead costs consume 60 % of the cash flow (a guess), then the 40 % balance covers materials, misc costs, and profit. So, the high number may be more like $550/hr to afford a 15 % net profit. The low estimate would be $383/hr to give the 15 % net profit.

I don’t know what the numbers really are. If anything, they are likely to be understated. I just did a back of the napkin scientific wild-assed guess (a SWAG).

Now, for the patient add to this the cost of testing, prescription drugs,and procedures by specialists who are likely to have expensive machinery as well as a high hourly rate. All of the parties involved have preset costs and margin requirements for their services. For the patient, there are few options for a Wal-Mart approach with less expensive care services.  The entire system has evolved to soak up the resources provided by insurance companies and the government.

Ultimately, the patient is a minor decision maker when it comes to medical services. Medicine has become an extractive industry where the sick person owns the land but not the mineral rights.  To a great extent, the doc is the gatekeeper as to what service will be needed and the insurance company is the gate keeper on the funds. It is up to the patient to try to connect the two parties in a dispute.

How can we expect to reign in health care costs when there is little option to find alternative services that are affordable?  Increasingly, we have champagne services on a beer budget.

There is no option for selecting a Ford sedan when the dealer only provides Mercedes. If medical schools and medical boards have an exclusive grip on the supply of MD’s in the market, how can the cost of medical labor be brought into line with the needs of the population bell curve? To what extent are MD’s over trained? Any at all?

And, to what extent do caregivers now turn ambiguous cases over to specialists or MRI’s where before they would have tackled it with more modest means? Perhaps litigation is a sort of ratchet that makes testing that was once optional now manditory.

People who provide critical and life saving services in our society should be rewarded in a manner commensurate with the contribution. And we should be willing to pay for such service. But for this service to have grown into a massive business machine that harvests cash from the marketplace, but is somehow immune from equilibrium forces in the market that everyone else is subject to is grossly unfair and cannot be sustained.

Unix Time Celebration

My wierd friend Les in the Bay Area advises me that a unique horological event has come and gone. It was a special moment in Unix Time that occured on Friday, 13 February, 2009. The origin on the Unix time line is planted just after midnight, 1 January, 1970 and accumulates in units of seconds. Notably, on 2/13/09 at 23:31:30 (UTC), the Unix clock registered “1234567890”. 

This event was unique enough in some circles to lead Unix Time enthusiasts to celebrate with parties and revelry in many parts of the world. I’m sure they partied like brain damaged test monkeys.

Naturally, Th’ Gaussling was not invited or even advised of this special event. [UpdateThis claim is incorrect. Th’ Gaussling was in fact advised of this auspicious occasion in advance by a nerdly friend, but failed to appreciate the gravity of it.]

Of greater interest might be the very next second. Apparently 1234567890 + 1 is prime (I have not personally verified this and probably will not get around to it before the next interesting Unix moment arrives-  9876543210).

It’s Mardi Gras Baby

As usual, I’m the only person at work wearing Mardi Gras beads today.  The day is bitter sweet. Some of the worst, the most savage, thrashing, hurling hangovers I’ve ever had have been in New Orleans.  My memories are filled with the sights and smells of Bourbon Street and the rowdy throngs standing in the street begging for revelers on the balconies to throw some beads or flash the crowd.

Last year in a blues bar a waitress wearing a Daisy Duke outfit and carring a rack of test tubes came up to me and said … something. Obviously I had “Chump” written all over me. I couldn’t understand what she said because the band was so loud, so through the beer fog I just nodded. Next thing I knew she took my money and grabbed my head and plunged it towards the test tubes planted in various locations in her outfit. I grabbed the tubes with my mouth and tipped back the sweet, flammable contents. There was more, but I won’t elaborate on it further.

After less than a minute, I had consumed unknown alcoholic liquids from dubious test tubes and walked away $30 lighter. I left the bar dazed and confused at what happened, feeling incredibly stupid for having been duped like a common tourista. Oh! The shame and degradation, sort of.

Brain Draino

The Obama administration famously put restructions on executive pay, capping at US$500k for institutions receiving TARP money. Naturally, there has been some shameless howling from the Masters of the Universe. Who? You know, the geniuses who were instrumental in birthing this finance mess.

There has been some wagging of tongues and tut tutting in regard to the problems of living on $500k per year on the upper East Side of Manhattan. Mathematically, this may in fact be true.  But I would offer that this is the market supplying pushback towards equilibrium. If the swanky life in Manhattan is not feasible on the meager sum of $500k, then the banks need to relocate. Banks should consider the kind of lifestyle an executive could have in Manhattan, Kansas, or Little Rock on $500k. Or York, NE. We got yer swank right here!

I love this description of financiers by David Gillen at the NYT-

Banking executives and recruiters say talented financiers — the driven, hyper-numerate, slightly ruthless ones with a preternatural knack for making money in bull markets and bear — are always in high demand. NY Times, Feb 21, 2009.

It sounds to me like the finance industry needs a therapeutic brain drain or a cerebral colonic.