Category Archives: Current Events

The Spring Burn

Spring is surely approaching because the local farmers are burning their irrigation ditches in preparation for the first release of irrigation water. A few minutes ago I passed a farmer driving a tractor with his ditch burner flaring away. It consisted of a long boom attached to the rear hitch and was fitted with a downward facing burner that rides over the ditch. This flame from above brings sudden hellfire to field mice and rabbits crouching in the ditch. Potbellied farmer dudes with shovels and a 4-wheeler watch the fire from a distance ready to spring into action if the fire gets out of control.  A hawk studies the activity from atop a nearby power pole.

The local reservoirs have been silently filling up with water in preparation for the seasons long discharge into the downhill maze of irrigation canals. Things are happening in the background.

Questions about health care costs

When one goes to the doctor for an examination or to have an office procedure performed, notes are made on the patients chart and procedure codes are recorded. Somewhere, a person enters these codes to the accounting system which then makes a ledger entry and generates an invoice.

Here is a crude guess (factor of 2 estimate) as to the labor costs involved for a 2-Doc office in a quiet town, nominally- 2 MD’s @ $250 k each, 2 PA’s at ~$35 k each, 2 office clerks @$25 k each. Add up the salaries plus 25 % for taxes and benefits, it adds to $775,000 per year in direct labor costs.

If we assume the mortgage or rent is $3000 per month, insurance on the facility is $8,000 per year (a guess), and utilities are $5000 per year (a guess), we can add another $49,000 bringing the total to $824,000 per year. 

Spread over 52 weeks at 48 hours per week, the overhead cost runs at $330.01 per hour. If the docs make $150,000 per year, the overhead comes down to $229.97 per hour. In a town away from the major population centers, the real cost is probably between the two numbers. In major markets, the costs may be 2x or more higher than the scribbling I have proposed.

At $330/hr, the labor overhead cost is $5.50 per minute. At $230/hr, the labor overhead cost is $3.83 per minute. This simple mindedly assumes that the docs are running the clinic and not a hospital. So, while a patient rattles away about a dream from the previous night, or gives a recitation of every manner of ache and pain in the last 5 years, the clock is ticking away. It is easy to see why most offices have multiple examination rooms and the doc spends all day popping in and out of these rooms. It is driven by the need to keep up the rate of production.

A practice is a business and there is a reasonable expectation of some kind of net profit. If in this labor intensive business the previous overhead costs consume 60 % of the cash flow (a guess), then the 40 % balance covers materials, misc costs, and profit. So, the high number may be more like $550/hr to afford a 15 % net profit. The low estimate would be $383/hr to give the 15 % net profit.

I don’t know what the numbers really are. If anything, they are likely to be understated. I just did a back of the napkin scientific wild-assed guess (a SWAG).

Now, for the patient add to this the cost of testing, prescription drugs,and procedures by specialists who are likely to have expensive machinery as well as a high hourly rate. All of the parties involved have preset costs and margin requirements for their services. For the patient, there are few options for a Wal-Mart approach with less expensive care services.  The entire system has evolved to soak up the resources provided by insurance companies and the government.

Ultimately, the patient is a minor decision maker when it comes to medical services. Medicine has become an extractive industry where the sick person owns the land but not the mineral rights.  To a great extent, the doc is the gatekeeper as to what service will be needed and the insurance company is the gate keeper on the funds. It is up to the patient to try to connect the two parties in a dispute.

How can we expect to reign in health care costs when there is little option to find alternative services that are affordable?  Increasingly, we have champagne services on a beer budget.

There is no option for selecting a Ford sedan when the dealer only provides Mercedes. If medical schools and medical boards have an exclusive grip on the supply of MD’s in the market, how can the cost of medical labor be brought into line with the needs of the population bell curve? To what extent are MD’s over trained? Any at all?

And, to what extent do caregivers now turn ambiguous cases over to specialists or MRI’s where before they would have tackled it with more modest means? Perhaps litigation is a sort of ratchet that makes testing that was once optional now manditory.

People who provide critical and life saving services in our society should be rewarded in a manner commensurate with the contribution. And we should be willing to pay for such service. But for this service to have grown into a massive business machine that harvests cash from the marketplace, but is somehow immune from equilibrium forces in the market that everyone else is subject to is grossly unfair and cannot be sustained.

Unix Time Celebration

My wierd friend Les in the Bay Area advises me that a unique horological event has come and gone. It was a special moment in Unix Time that occured on Friday, 13 February, 2009. The origin on the Unix time line is planted just after midnight, 1 January, 1970 and accumulates in units of seconds. Notably, on 2/13/09 at 23:31:30 (UTC), the Unix clock registered “1234567890”. 

This event was unique enough in some circles to lead Unix Time enthusiasts to celebrate with parties and revelry in many parts of the world. I’m sure they partied like brain damaged test monkeys.

Naturally, Th’ Gaussling was not invited or even advised of this special event. [UpdateThis claim is incorrect. Th’ Gaussling was in fact advised of this auspicious occasion in advance by a nerdly friend, but failed to appreciate the gravity of it.]

Of greater interest might be the very next second. Apparently 1234567890 + 1 is prime (I have not personally verified this and probably will not get around to it before the next interesting Unix moment arrives-  9876543210).

It’s Mardi Gras Baby

As usual, I’m the only person at work wearing Mardi Gras beads today.  The day is bitter sweet. Some of the worst, the most savage, thrashing, hurling hangovers I’ve ever had have been in New Orleans.  My memories are filled with the sights and smells of Bourbon Street and the rowdy throngs standing in the street begging for revelers on the balconies to throw some beads or flash the crowd.

Last year in a blues bar a waitress wearing a Daisy Duke outfit and carring a rack of test tubes came up to me and said … something. Obviously I had “Chump” written all over me. I couldn’t understand what she said because the band was so loud, so through the beer fog I just nodded. Next thing I knew she took my money and grabbed my head and plunged it towards the test tubes planted in various locations in her outfit. I grabbed the tubes with my mouth and tipped back the sweet, flammable contents. There was more, but I won’t elaborate on it further.

After less than a minute, I had consumed unknown alcoholic liquids from dubious test tubes and walked away $30 lighter. I left the bar dazed and confused at what happened, feeling incredibly stupid for having been duped like a common tourista. Oh! The shame and degradation, sort of.

Brain Draino

The Obama administration famously put restructions on executive pay, capping at US$500k for institutions receiving TARP money. Naturally, there has been some shameless howling from the Masters of the Universe. Who? You know, the geniuses who were instrumental in birthing this finance mess.

There has been some wagging of tongues and tut tutting in regard to the problems of living on $500k per year on the upper East Side of Manhattan. Mathematically, this may in fact be true.  But I would offer that this is the market supplying pushback towards equilibrium. If the swanky life in Manhattan is not feasible on the meager sum of $500k, then the banks need to relocate. Banks should consider the kind of lifestyle an executive could have in Manhattan, Kansas, or Little Rock on $500k. Or York, NE. We got yer swank right here!

I love this description of financiers by David Gillen at the NYT-

Banking executives and recruiters say talented financiers — the driven, hyper-numerate, slightly ruthless ones with a preternatural knack for making money in bull markets and bear — are always in high demand. NY Times, Feb 21, 2009.

It sounds to me like the finance industry needs a therapeutic brain drain or a cerebral colonic.

Indignation of the Self-Righteous Self-Made

There is an undercurrent of disatisfaction that is surfacing regarding the rescue of homeowners who got themselves into bad mortgage arrangements. Talking heads like the guy on CNBC are going off about how wrong it is that citizens who were more clever about their spending habits should have to pay for the mistakes of those who made bad choices.

As a first order approximation, it is hard to argue that we should line up to provide this payout.  If you make bad judgments based on greed, ignorance, or simple miscalculation, the theory is that in an ideal free market you should be free to suffer the consequences as well as the benefits.

That’s fine. Except that we do not have an ideal free market.  In this particular bust, the risks of mortgage trading were not accurately communicated to investors or even particularly well understood by anyone. The macro effect of a large number of mortgagees who are suddenly unable to deal with a large interest rate uptick in their adjustable rate mortgages (ARM) was under appreciated by most.

Adjustable rate mortgages and the subsequent investment instruments that followed were dreamed up by somebody- but probably not by hourly workers or anyone outside real estate and finance. There was a kind of wink-of-the-eye understanding between banks, mortgage brokers, builders, and the real estate business. Not only was there the invention of the ARM and the degradation of qualification standards, there was a nationwide marketing campaign aimed at marginal buyers. This real estate boom was financed in part by mortgage instruments designed to capture marginal borrowers.

The previous owner of the home that I presently occupy was a mortagage broker who had hit the big time at the start of this bubble.  After the signatures were on paper, he told his wife that she could have the BMW that she had wanted from the equity.  Mortgage brokering was practically a cottage industry and many people were making money.

Real estate agents knew this of course. They knew that easy qualification was available and they continued to do what they always do:  push buyers into the most home they could afford.  It was a sellers market and real estate speculation was rampant. Builders were routinely putting up spec homes and selling them like hotcakes.

This is not just a problem limited to greedy buyers. A whole business phenomenon grew into being around the housing boom. Lending institutions, mortgage brokers, real estate brokers, title companies, builders, and buyers all bought into a dream built upon sand. Buyers may have been guilty of bad judgement, but it was facilitated by entire industry ready and willing to make it happen.  

So, are the angry men we see on television justified in their assertion that they should not be forced to help bail out those facing foreclosure? I suppose the position you take depends on your vision of what civilization should look like. I think  if you investigate the self-righteous self-made, you’ll find that many of them benefitted in part by the distribution of wealth at some scale. Inheritance money, Pell grants, scholarships, good mentoring, good fortune, talented parenting, and many other forms of benefit that are not necessarily distributed by bank deposit. Simple hard work is rarely enough.

The parties involved in this fiasco should bear the brunt of it themselves to a large extent. That means that lending institutions should not be entitled to the profits they were anticipating and the borrowers should not be entitled to large equity on overvalued homes. There should be suffering on the part of all participants.

Edsel, Studebaker, and Saturn

As that grand Zepplin of Corporations, General Motors, sinks like a deflating airship, it has begun to pitch everything overboard in a vain effort to stay afloat. It was inevitable then than underperforming assets would be unceremoniously dropped from service like a lame mule or an Oldsmobile.

Back in 1993 while living in South Bend, Indiana, I struck up a conversation with an elderly neighbor in my apartment complex. Turns out she was one of the last two employees of the Studebaker company. She and a coworker managed retirement benefits for Studebaker employees in a small office in South Bend for 17 years after the plant closed. On the last day, as she told the story, she and her colleague simultaneously walked out of the office and that was it for Studebaker.

And so it goes with Saturn. If the dealers cannot find a buyer for the manufacturing operation, they too will one day sell the last Saturn and close up the shop.  Parts manufacturers will continue to make parts for many years, but the Saturn will become synonymous with the dinosaur and the Dodo bird.

Djerassi-v-Trost. Clash of the Titans.

The January 26, 2009 C&EN has an interesting letter to the editor. Carl Djerassi sent a letter critical of the manner in which Professor Trost cites authors in his references. According to Djerassi, Trost didn’t cite the discoverer of a natural product for which the Trost group had just reported a total synthesis. He took Trost to task in diluting the accomplishment of the workers who had isolated, characterized, and tested the compounds for biological activity by not citing the original work.

Trost’s treatment of Pettit is particularly egregious given the well-known fact in the chemical community that the spectacularly laborious decade-long efforts of one of the heroes of marine natural products chemistry—the person who personally collected the bryozoan, isolated the bryostatins, established their constitution, and pursued their anticancer activity against all odds—were terminated through a draconian closure of his laboratory by the new administrators of Arizona State University. [C&EN, Jan. 26, 2009]

Trost and Djerassi are two of the rock stars of organic chemistry. When such people “go nuclear” in their open personal criticism, it is so compelling that you can’t help but take notice. Far from being unseemly, I think this kind of thing is healthy for the field. Neglecting key early workers while trotting your own references up to the front of the line is a kind of misdemeanor racketeering of scholarship. If true, Djerassi has a good point.

But, I can sympathize with Trost to some extent. Eventually, past progress becomes part of the background. Do we have to cite Henry Gilman everytime we use BuLi to remove a proton? There must be some juicy backstory that has Djerassi riled.

Plea from China

I don’t know what others are experiencing, but I am flooded with desperate email pitches from Chinese chemical manufacturers- “Please, let’s make cooperation!”  Everything from solvents to generic drugs.

A receding tide beaches all boats.

Update:  Just got an offer for bulk Vinblastine Sulfate. Golly, I think I’ll decline. The last thing a guy needs is a few kg of that stuff sitting in a cabinet.