Category Archives: Current Events

There Be Dragons!

There is a theory brewing that the ignorant wielding of statistics-based risk management is deep at the heart of the current financial panic. Nassim Nicholas Taleb is quite outspoken in this matter. He goes on at length about the inadequacies of statistical methods for financial risk management.

NY Times writer Joe Nocera [link may require free subscription] echoes this sentiment- but in greater breadth- in a recent article in the NYT. Nocera focuses on Value at Risk- VaR.  Since my statistics training is limited, the reader will have to draw their own conclusions on the merits of this methodology.

Taleb warned about “Black Swans” a while back in a book by that title.  A man not overly burdened with modesty, Taleb has transcended to the status of an Illuminati due to his prescience on the blindness of statistics-based financial risk management in predicting low frequency catastrophic events, or Black Swans.

Perhaps the old cartographic flourish “There Be Dragons!” should be updated to “There Be Black Swans!”

Empty Seat on the Carbon Bandwagon

Sometimes it is best to simply shut up and link to a superior post. This is such a time. In a recent posting, one writer, Harold Ambler, comes out against Al Gore in the global warming debate. While I am skeptical about his assertions on the effect of the solar flux on the earths geomagnetic dynamo, I think Ambler otherwise brings together quite a few good points I have seen elsewhere.

The ticket to my seat on the carbon bandwagon will soon post on Ebay.

Microsoft finds new method to deposit eggs in host

A Microsoft patent application claiming pay-as-you-go computing has appeared. The claimed method will apparently allow you to pay for only the capacity and tools that you select. A commentary can be found on ars technica.

Imagine being a lab rat and watching the lab tech prepare a new type of surgical device for use on you. That’s about how I feel right now after hearing this news.

Pro-Stalin Sentiment Rising in Russia

The artless fools running our American federal government over the last 8 years have been substantially preoccupied with petropolitics and deconstruction of the goverment handed to them by the previous administration.  Leading up to the 8 Bush II years were 6 years of a conservative congress who paid more attention to the lurid and scandalous behaviour of Clinton/Lewinski than to the international scene.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990’s, the USA has been internally preoccupied with: a pageant of neoconservative social engineering proposals; privatization of nearly everything; political consolidation of dominionist megachurches; impeachment of a president for lying about sex; a buildup of militarism following the 9/11 attack; attacking the wrong country (arguably) in response to 9/11;  the re-election of a president who has proven to be considerably less than useless; a global financial trainwreck; and, finally, the handoff of a platter of shit sandwiches to the next administration. What a time it has been.

And since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the USA has squandered its substantial goodwill and failed to summon international leadership by Presidents 42 & 43 in the constructive engagement of new Russia. Magic moments in history have come and gone, unused. In the mean time, Russia has experimented with capitalism in their unique way. But the experiment has not been much of a success.  So, Russia did what Russia tends to do- it has advanced strongmen into power. And they are KGB alumni as well. Golly, what a surprise. 

It could be that Russia might have been refractory to whatever help we might have offered. But we didn’t really try much beyond helping them decommission nuclear warheads.

So, now we see that Russian sentiment is falling back nostalgically towards Joseph Stalin- Uncle Joe. The government is actually confiscating materials archiving the atrocities of Stalin. The rationale is that Stalin made them a superpower, so his indiscretions and sins can be overlooked. Putin and Medvedev- king and rook- are gradually consolidating power the old fashioned way- they’re taking it under the blustering pretense of security. It’s like a game of chess. You advance enough pawns to get control of the middle of the board. Then you castle your king (Putin) and begin the projection of power across the board.

More than the Earth Stood Still

Having sat through the remake of the classic SciFi movie The Day the Earth Stood Still, I am compelled to set up a warning beacon for those who have yet to see this movie.

Here is the warning- While it may be worth seeing on a big screen, it is definitely not worth the full price of admission. If your local cineplex offers discount tickets for afternoon shows, take the opportunity to see it then. Also, be sure to sneak in as many concession snacks as possible. You want to keep your financial investment in this movie to a bare minimum.

First, a few words about Keanu Reeves. Much like John Wayne, Reeves seems to have a single character that he portrays in every film. In this movie, it’s “Reeves plays Klaatu”.  I will say that Reeves portrayal of Klaatu is fine- his trademark deadpan delivery works well for the part. 

Jennifer Connelly plays Dr. Helen Benson, an astrobiologist who is swept into action by mysterious people with Chinook helicopters. Her part is poorly written and suffers from excessive cliche. Character development is weak as is emotional buy-in. 

Stepchild  Jacob Benson, played by Jaden Smith, is an impish, totally gratuitous angry stepchild trapped in a love-less domestic truce with stepmom Connelly. Smith’s part was poorly written and directed as well. There is little or no opportunity to emotionally connect with his character.

The blackboard scene with John Cleese was conducted like a checkers match rather than a brainstorming session. It was lifeless and unconvincing.  This is one of the few serious roles played by Cleese and I believe it is a step down from Basil Fawlty.

Emotional connection is the lost key to this movie. It is actually part of the plot construction. The movie demands the viewer to accept that Connelly and Smith emotionally connect with Klaatu, but the direction and writing of the movie fails to bridge that gap convincingly or even connect the viewer to the characters.

This movie is written like a class project in preparation for midterm exams in a Cinema 205 course. Cliche parts and story telling devices were taken off the shelf and snapped together.  While I will give a passing grade on cinematography and effects, it is a sophomoric exercise in movie writing.

Nernstian Sunrise in the Cryosphere

WAWAwawa ..wawa..wawawa..waawaa..waaawaaa..wa..wa……wa……….wa.

The thermometer read -20 F this morning. It hasn’t been that cold for a few years.  As I sat in the Jeep listening to my battery die hard, my mind wandered fondly to the green meadows of P-Chem and the Nernst equation. This equation sets forth the relationship between temperature and cell potential.  The University of Arizona has this fantastic Nernst simulator (web version) that lets you dial in temperature and immediately see the effect on the voltage of the electrochemical cell.  It is plain to see that as the temperature drops, the EMF drops as well.

Knowing that nature wouldn’t let me summon sufficient wattage from my battery, I went back inside and switched on CNN.  After seeing multiple replays of an indignant journalist hurling a pair of shoes at our president, I was treated to an ad by the Central Intelligence Agency- the CIA. Yeah, the CIA is advertising on CNN!  Take a minute to get your arms around that.

Strangely, uncharacteristically perhaps, I experienced a synergistic swelling of sympathy after seeing the shots of Bush II being assaulted by Iraqi footwear followed by the patriotic CIA ad. For a moment- just a sparkle in time- a quorum of voices in my head agreed that somebody should kick that journalist’s ass. Bush II may be a buffoon, but he is OUR buffoon and nobody should treat him like that. There- I said it.

Kar Tsar? Car Czar?

A Car Czar?  What?  Are they kidding? Pfffttt!! Industry people barely know how to run the car business. How is a civil servant or political appointee going to direct a bunch of cocky rust belt stiffs in pinstripe suits to drive us into a clean and happy motorized future? Is this a joke? HEY!!  Who’s idea is this?

The big three automotive companies need a blood purge. The executives who lead these venerable organizations onto this jeep trail to perdition need to have their heads skewered on a row of pikes planted outside corporate HQ for all to see. There must be a big show of public firings and some tearful, sobbing contrition by the survivors. People who become automobile executives captains of industry should be terrified every day they show up to work, fearing for their careers. If you get too relaxed, You’re Out!  Damn’d skippy.

Aqueous Enceladus

With the revelation that streams of water ejected from the Saturnian moon Enceladus may arise from subsurface liquid water, the space science crowd is abuzz with excitement about the possibility of life on this frosted novelty moon. It seems to me that if there is aqueous life under the surface of Enceladus, then some of it should have been blown ejected above the surface by these geysers. In fact, a few of the hapless critters may be lying about on the surface this very moment wearing an expression of shock and dismay on their frozen xenomorphic faces. How embarrassing for them.

The three cosmic damp spots- Earth, Europa, and Enceladus. I wonder how long it will take for a lander proposal to get serious evaluation? Life on Enceladus is as likely to resemble a microbial mat as anything.  A lander would have to consider microscopic examination of samples.

Receding Tide Strands All Boats

Wow. Major dose of reality. For Th’ Gaussling, this economy fiasco just went from made-for-TV to in-your-face reality. Big chemical producers are pitching 10 % chunks of resourceful humanity overboard. They are burning down inventory levels, pushing back raw material purchases, and stopping capital projects. The reciprocal of the old saw about “a rising tide lifting all boats” is in effect.

Well, everywhere except government. Government seems to continue to build up debt obligations into the tens of terabucks range. Now is a good time to have defense related products- things that have MIL SPEC on them.

But now is when it really sucks to be in advertising, RV sales, and office supplies.  Advertising budgets are among the easiest to cut when the flancing of blubber begins. 

This is a great time to hire. Lots of job candidates out there with degrees. I’ve been getting Hail Mary resumes from people wildly disconnected from chemistry.

If you are a well paid 50-something, golly, you might as well put a target on your back. This is one of the ways companies can re-jigger their staff to be rid of those expensive, middle aged folk who burden the health insurance pool with those costly diseases. In a recession, a company can use the situation to reset the payroll and have a chance to restaff with cheaper worker bees when things pick back up. That is, if there is anybody left.

Memo to Jeb Bush

Hello Mr. Bush. We hear that you are considering a run for the US Senate. We do not know each other and it is unlikely that our paths will cross.  But if you do indeed win a seat in the Senate, then you will be in my life, though somewhat indirectly. You seem like a nice fellow. Let me offer a few thoughts.

Consider that the entire GOP franchise has been badly damaged by your brother, his handlers, and by groups who have perverted the meaning of conservatism. Your brother and his people have presided over the creation of entirely new species of corruption, incompetence, and forms of malfeasance that will take a decade to untangle.

A large fraction of citizens are angry over Bush II arrogance and its willful disregard of good civics. Americans want to move past the Bush epoch: A Bush III period is not welcome.

That being said, it seems that redemption of the family name may lie squarely on your shoulders. Please consider that the direction of this redemption may not be in Washington. It may be elsewhere and may take the form of more humble activity.

Sincerely yours,

Th’ Gaussling