I’m not an apologist for the chemical industry. Chemical industry has a checkered past in many ways. The pesticide, petrochemicals, and mining industries have left a deep and abiding foul taste in the mouths of many communities. In a previous era, heavy industry has fouled rivers, lakes, air, and ground water. It has lead to illness, death, and loss of livelihood to many people.
But in the modern era much of this wanton issuance of hazardous industrial material into the air and waters has been halted or greatly diminished. At least for the US, Canada, and the EU. And it is not because industry suddenly found religion. The “regulatory environment” became so compelling a liability cost factor that industry set its mind to engineering plants into compliance.
I would make the observation that today, the major chemical health issues before us are not quite as much about bulk environmental pollution by waste products. Rather, I would offer that the most important matter may have to do with the chronic exposure of consumers to various levels of manufactured products. High energy density foods, particularly, high fructose corn sweeteners; veterinary antibiotic residues, endocrine disrupters, smoking, highly potent pharmaceuticals, and volatiles from polymers and adhesives to name just a few.
Modern life has come to require the consumption of many things. A modern nation must have a thriving chemical industry to sustain its need for manufactured materials. It is quite difficult and isolating to live a life free of paint and plastics or diesel and drugs. Choosing paper over plastic at the supermarket requires a difficult calculation of comparative environmental insults. Pulp manufacture vs polymer manufacture- which is the least evil? I don’t know.
Our lives have transitioned from convenience to wretched excess. Our industry has given us an irresistable selection of facile ways to accomplish excess consumption. Individualized portions meter out aliquots of tasty morsels that our cortisol-stressed brains cry out for. These same portions are conveniently dispensed in petroleum- or natural gas-derived packages within packages within packages. These resource depleting disposable nested packages are delivered to our local market in diesel burning behemoths because some pencil-necked cube monkey decided that rotund Americans needed yet one more permutation of high fructose corn syrup saturated, palm oil softened, sodium salt crusted, azo dye pigmented, extruded grain product on Wal-Mart shelves.
Enough already.
All Rights Reserved. Copyright 2008.
A commentor recently pointed out that Th’ Gaussling was sounding off in a nationalist/socialist way. While I’m pretty sure I’m not a socialist, I must admit that I’m on a nationalistic bender at the moment. And by nationalistic, don’t think for minute that I get weepy and sentimental over Kenny Rogers flag waving ballads. I don’t.
But I do believe that, in the short and bloody history of humanity, this North American culture of ours has produced or advanced some truly amazing things. Like space exploration and antibiotics. Airplanes, transistors, synthetic chemistry, and cinema. We’ve had some low points as well. But in spite of our war-like behavior, much good has come from our industriousness.
And, I am anxious to keep it much of it running. There is no return to a pastoral life in the Shire. We are electric hominids whether we like it or not. The very existence of life itself leads to disorder. Highly ordered organisms that we are, we create vast amounts of disorder to energize life and hold our molecules together in cellular membranes. Practically by definition, we cannot help but leave a carbon footprint. The trick is to avoid adding carbon faster than the cycle can accomodate.
It is plain as day that the USA is trending in a bad economic direction. I’m not talking about economic indicators or some political movement. I’m talking about our business culture. I believe that our manner of doing business has gone astray. We have come to value the wrong people and unhealthy organizational behavior. We have come to admire those who appear to generate wealth by the manipulation of financial contrivances and accounting machinations. Strangely, the notion of manufacturing as a desirable activity has become nearly obsolete.
We don’t need Grand Theft Auto IV or Microsoft Vista or better cell phone gimmicks. We don’t need more gadgets to give neurotic, hyperactive, workaholics 2X better web connectivity. Somehow, we have become intoxicated with computer technology to the point where we feel we need to fill terabytes of disk space with junk data rather than going outside and planting a garden or talking to the neighbor.
The greedheads in banking, finance, and real estate have helped to construct a business finance machine that few understand. Greed as a virtue is the norm. The right to petition congress has come to mean a docking port for electronic funds transfer to the military-industrial complex. If gaming the system is possible, then it is manditory.
We don’t have to abandon the basic principles of laissez faire markets. Markets work. Even the Chinese communists realize this. But we don’t have to shut our brains off either.
We do need a comprehensive mass transit network covering most of the continent. We need better ways to generate and transfer electric power. We need to find ways to make sure that people in Honduras have clean drinking water.
We don’t need a better version of Excel or SAP. We need Spacely Sprockets. We need people to continue to go into the trades and build things. We need welders and electricians and machinists, millwrights and longshoremen. This country needs to get back to the fundamentals of manufacturing tangible products.
China has announced that it will enter into the passenger jet manufacturing business. China Commercial Aircraft is expected to produce 150-passenger aircraft by 2020.
This is a big deal. And a big time challenge to the primacy of the US aviation industry. China’s aim is to achieve self-sufficiency in all high tech sectors. If it were just that, it would be less threatening. But what it really means is global market domination, not just self-sufficiency. This is just competition, but how it plays out for the US will depend on how US industry acts to hold on to its marketshare beginning right now.
The USA retains talent and ability in the entertainment and aviation industries. I believe that US influence of the petrochemical industry is in decline, due in part to the rise of nationalized oil companies in much of the oil producing world. It looks as if our aviation industry will feel competition by a nationalized aircraft manufacturer as well.
The rise of Chinese competition in the marketplace in inevitable. What the west must come to grips with is the inherent leverage that China has with its low wage labor force and the ability to channel resources into projects of national pride such as this.
China will also have the benefit of a century of jet engine and aeronautical research paid for by other nations. I imagine that more than a few of its engineers will have western universities listed on their resumes. Can’t do much about this either. But we in the west can use this example to strengthen our resolve to not go the way of tired and anemic empires.
Russia celebrated a holiday recently with a large scale military parade on Red Square. Just like the bad old days. Putins sock puppet, President Dmitri Medvedev, smiled while Putin stood stern-faced at his side at the annual Parade of Hardware. Insiders claim that Russia’s effort to modernize its military forces is anemic and plagued with corruption. Putin and followers are plainly appealing to that voice in the Russian soul that longs for strongman leadership.
China, on the other hand, is quietly constructing a secret underground nuclear submarine base on Hainan. Hmmm. A secret underground lair. Sounds like Dr. No. I doubt there are miniskirted nubiles with machine guns. Bummer.
Whereas Russia is fighting infrastructural inertia in its return to the platform, China is methodically ramping up its military with an economy flush with cash. With funding from its exports of Wal-Mart inventory and other Cheap Plastic Crap (CPC) marketed through its many outlets in the USA, China is moving closer to a blue water Navy and an SSBN fleet.
In the next 20 years, we are likely to see China flexing its muscle by positioning naval (carrier ?) groups and hints of Chinese submarine fleets prowling the continental shelves of the world. Just like us.
While the USA shadow boxes with multiple terrorist threats around the world, China plods forward minding its own business and funding its own growth.
Four US presidential terms were squandered following the fall of the Soviet Union- 2 x Clinton and 2 x Bush. US efforts to engage Russia in economic cooperation were weak at best. The highlight was perhaps the downgrading of Soviet era nuclear materials. Instead of building friendships and trade cooperation, US presidents were distracted by faulty nation building exercises and dubious foreign adventures. Mikhail Gorbachev himself recently lamented that “… every US president has to have a war…”.
US government needs to spend a 4 year term focused inwards. We must address US infrastructure as eagerly and aggressively as we land troops on the sandy reaches of the earth. The US needs an upgrade in electrical power distribution, bridges, its rail “system”, and its ports.
Collectively, we must find ways to keep factories and businesses in the USA. We need to reconsider the structure of the Code of Federal Regulations. Our regulatory structure is now so complex and extensive that we face the real risk of killing innovation. Our tax code is too complex and too burdensome on citizens and businesses. The government is funding far too many activities.
In short, the USA must get back to basics. The country is in a existential crisis and we need to get grounded again. We need fewer rules in our lives, not more. We need fewer people telling us how to live an authentic life. More of us need to spend a bit more time in the pursuit of happiness.
As if further proof of my true tediousness was really necessary, Th’ Gaussling will disclose to the world that I log a fair amount of odd-hour time watching C-Span 1 & 2.
Saturday morning’s broadcast bonanza was a re-airing of an earlier awards gala put on by the Atlantic Council. Among the illuminati doling out awards was “Henry the K”. Yes, the venerable Henry Kissinger- Dr. Shuttle Diplomacy.
Arguably, among President Nixon’s gang of operatives, Henry Kissinger was a towering and intimidating intellect. In the management of the Viet Nam “conflict” and the diplomatic opening of China, Kissinger was extremely influential in the Nixon Whitehouse. But unfortunately for Kissinger, he continues to be unpopular in some circles. Chile has invited him to answer some difficult questions. In his characteristic 20 Hz basso profundo voice, Henry has declined to visit.
Not a tall fellow, Kissinger stood on a stool behind the podium and read a glowing and heartfelt introduction for one of the Awardees- Mr. Rupert Murdoch. Mr. Murdoch was held out to the world by the Atlantic Council as an example of shining excellence in international business. I can only guess that the poobahs and grandees on the awards committee, through the refractive lenses of their world view, somehow missed the profound global bastardization of broadcast news under the wing of News Corp. More likely, they do not see it as a perversion but rather a turnabout to right thinking.
As a compulsive channel surfer, I switched to the other C-Span channel just in time for proceedings of the House Judiciary Committee, chaired by the Honorable Representitive Conyers (D-MI). Conyers was reading the riot act to the Director of the FBI regarding due process for members of the house during FBI raids.
After a few minutes of roasting the Director, the chair yielded to the Honorable Representative Smith (R-TX). Rep. Smith began by figuratively Kowtowing to the Director and then prefaced his comments by referring to a report from Fox News, that fountain of information plumbed by Mr. Rupert Murdoch.
That a senior member of congress would preface his comments by citing Fox News as a primary reference is surely telling of the reach of Rupert Murdoch into the political machinery of the USA. Of course, citing Fox News is not a new rhetorical habit of neo-conservatives. But the simultaneity of the Murdoch pageantry on C-Span 2 and endorsement of Murdoch’s Fox News as the Republican “Van Nostrand’s Encyclopedia” on C-Span 1 was at once fascinating and faintly anticholinergic in effect. Though certainly random, this overlap of Murdoch mania only brings into focus the influence this man.
Murdoch went on to opine on the stability of NATO, stating
“We must face up to a painful truth: Europe no longer has either the political will or social culture to support military engagements in defense of itself and its allies. However strong NATO may be on paper, this fact makes NATO weak in practice. And it means that reform will not come from within.”
Murdoch has turned his attention to the expansion of NATO. A member of the merchant nobility, Murdoch has said aloud what is perhaps already on the minds of policy makers. Expansionism. Western exceptionalism. Democracy through superior firepower.
The spread of democracy is a good thing. And western culture has much to offer. But a US government with insufficient checks and balances is a dangerous thing. Especially when our petro-president is on a security binge and is driven by an autistic military /petroleum fixation.
According to the AP, emloyees of Stanley, Inc., have beed fired for reportedly viewing the passport records of Sen. Obama. The New York Times reports that the passport files of Senators Obama, Clinton, and McCain have been accessed inappropriately. Whether they revealed more than name, place and date of birth, and social security number remains to be seen.
No doubt this will result in a flood of rule making and billable hours for consultants. It seems to me that there is an alternative to devising higher security for government records. If the government collected a lower volume of sensitive information, then there is less information that can be inappropriately viewed.
The gov’t collects a good deal of information from people who fill out forms for some service or consideration. The question is, just how many different data fields are really necessary for a given service? In other words, how much excess information is being collected to satisfy the just-in-case doubts suffered by the gov’t form designer?
Passport information may be a bad example on which to raise this question owing to the gravity of passport issuance. But the larger questions still exists- Just how much information about citizens is truly necessary to run the government? Are there any checks and balances here?
My comments on recession come strictly from news and from petrochemical industry publications. I have not seen any indication that manufacturing of specialty chemicals (at least in the waters I swim in) are as yet affected by the economic turmoil that the lending fiasco triggered. Eventually orders will taper some, but the how much and when is not at all clear.
It takes a while for the effects of a downturn to filter upstream to all sectors of chemical manufacturing. The first effects will likely be a pushback on delivery of existing orders. Then, the period between succesive orders will lengthen as businesses closer to the consumers will start to trim down inventories and throughput. Finally, sales forecasts will begin to report spotty sales projections 2 or 3 quarters out. Eventually, you run into those weak quarters and have to find a way to limp through them.
The important question relating to petrochemicals (aromatics, naphtha, ethylene, propylene, etc) is where does price elasticity really kick in for hydrocarbon intensive goods as crude prices continue to rise and the dollar continues to devalue?
Packaging materials like PE, PS, and PP, etc. are very often not the primary product consumers are looking for. They are produced for sellers of consumer goods as packaging materials. The purchasing decision maker is not the person strolling down the isles of Wal-Mart, but rather the product manufacturers who have to package the goods.
This economic disturbance seems unique. Demand from the global middle class is growing as the US economy falters. Demand for hydrocarbon fuels and manufacturing feedstocks is strong from Asia for their own consumption. But Asian production is also strongly linked to the demand of their products from the west. Predicting how this thing plays out is very tricky.
Polymer membranes, HDPE pipe, PVC pipe, automotive assemblies and fascia are all large consumers of hydrocarbon products. Demand for these materials, obviously, should parallel the health of construction and automotive industries. But as the US transitions to a net importer of polymers, the connection to US economics is murky.
I suppose the best business to be in is war profiteering and security, at least as long as a war president is in office. It seems to be shielded from the raw forces of economics. As long as the gov’t can print money, special interests can be paid. A good career would be as a translator between Arabic and Mandarin.
I’m reluctant to sound alarmed, but with the apparent shape of an impending economic Katrina moving over North America, it is getting harder to grant the benefit of the doubt. The dollar is sinking, exposing this import-heavy nation of ours to price increases in nearly every sector. The petroleum resources that energize global production and grease all economic skids is generating considerable doubt and turmoil in financial circles.
Oil production is flat in many key regions but the demand for consumer goods by the global middle class is expanding. Our television-enchanted population, brains scrambled to numbness by chronic exposure to American Idol, are seeing only what the media powerbrokers want us to see. The eternal message that comes from TV is spend, spend, spend.
The popular economic indicator is the stock market. The DJIA up- good. The DJIA down- bad. It is a sort of pallative. We’re lulled into a false comfort zone by the meta-stability of todays stockmarket. Other dots are beginning to line up into a harmonic convergence, however.
Yesterday, as a humorous conversation starter, I asked a senior colleague well placed in the petroleum industry this question- “when will crude oil hit $150/bbl?”. His reply surprised me. He estimated that it would happen this summer. Later, tempering his answer somewhat, he suggested that it would be more like $130/bbl, and mostly on the strength of nervousness in the market. He added that at present, crude oil stocks in the USA were in ample supply.
The extended weakness in the dollar seems to favor American exporters and disfavors import consumers. Hmmm. Does gov’t inaction on the weakness of the dollar amount to bias for corporate constituents and neglect of unincorporated citizens? Curious.
Advice- payoff as much debt as possible. Insulate your house. Get rid of that gas guzzler. Accumulate greater savings. A lot of the soon-to-be-unemployed are going to face higher higher gasoline prices for their commute to the new job at the auto salvage yard. And when they get back to their trailer at night, the thermostat will be set low due to higher heating costs. Beans and weenies, Mac-n-Cheese. Bon apetite!
The election season is far too long. Every minute of this tedious pageant is filled with relentless microanalysis of the latest minutiae. No nuance is too small for the CNN impresario Wolf Blitzer or the goon squad at Fox News to dwell in an endless vortex of speculation and rhetorical webspinning.
Fox News in particular is incredibly brazen in its rightwing bent. Most hotels in which I have stayed recently favor this news source with a prominent spot on the channel selection. The pretense of neutrality is long gone. They are the Republican Broadcasting Network and have the same saccharin evangelical flavor as Pat Robertsons cable freakshow. What liberal media? Hollywood? Please. Hollywood is just another kind of freakshow with better costumes.
I can see how countries devolve into unstable conditions where deep ideological differences disrupt the peace and lead to open conflict. I’d be in favor of secession of a few states if these rightwing boneheads wanted their own country. Just keep an eye on the nukes. There is deep frustration in this country and the only thing keeping angry mobs off the streets is relative prosperity.
Republican control is only paper thin. After the ’08 election, Democrat control will only be paper thin. The only thing that has happened in the Clinton and Bush II epochs is that both conservatives and liberals have become more articulate in their opposing positions.
Now I’m microanalyzing. It’s like a disease.
Lamentations on Chemistry 