Category Archives: Current Events

Passport Control

According to the AP, emloyees of Stanley, Inc., have beed fired for reportedly viewing the passport records of Sen. Obama.  The New York Times reports that the passport files of Senators Obama, Clinton, and McCain have been accessed inappropriately. Whether they revealed more than name, place and date of birth, and social security number remains to be seen.

No doubt this will result in a flood of rule making and billable hours for consultants. It seems to me that there is an alternative to devising higher security for government records.  If the government collected a lower volume of sensitive information, then there is less information that can be inappropriately viewed. 

The gov’t collects a good deal of information from people who fill out forms for some service or consideration. The question is, just how many different data fields are really necessary for a given service? In other words, how much excess information is being collected to satisfy the just-in-case doubts suffered by the gov’t form designer?

Passport information may be a bad example on which to raise this question owing to the gravity of passport issuance.  But the larger questions still exists- Just how much information about citizens is truly necessary to run the government?  Are there any checks and balances here?

Ear to the Ground

My comments on recession come strictly from news and from petrochemical industry publications. I have not seen any indication that manufacturing of specialty chemicals (at least in the waters I swim in) are as yet affected by the economic turmoil that the lending fiasco triggered. Eventually orders will taper some, but the how much and when is not at all clear.

It takes a while for the effects of a downturn to filter upstream to all sectors of chemical manufacturing. The first effects will likely be a pushback on delivery of existing orders. Then, the period between succesive orders will lengthen as businesses closer to the consumers will start to trim down inventories and throughput.  Finally, sales forecasts will begin to report spotty sales projections 2 or 3 quarters out. Eventually, you run into those weak quarters and have to find a way to limp through them.

The important question relating to petrochemicals (aromatics, naphtha, ethylene, propylene, etc) is where does price elasticity really kick in for hydrocarbon intensive goods as crude prices continue to rise and the dollar continues to devalue? 

Packaging materials like PE, PS, and PP, etc. are very often not the primary product consumers are looking for. They are produced for sellers of consumer goods as packaging materials. The purchasing decision maker is not the person strolling down the isles of Wal-Mart, but rather the product manufacturers who have to package the goods. 

This economic disturbance seems unique. Demand from the global middle class is growing as the US economy falters.  Demand for hydrocarbon fuels and manufacturing feedstocks is strong from Asia for their own consumption. But Asian production is also strongly linked to the demand of their products from the west. Predicting how this thing plays out is very tricky. 

Polymer membranes, HDPE pipe, PVC pipe, automotive assemblies and fascia are all large consumers of hydrocarbon products. Demand for these materials, obviously, should parallel the health of construction and automotive industries. But as the US transitions to a net importer of polymers, the connection to US economics is murky.

I suppose the best business to be in is war profiteering and security, at least as long as a war president is in office. It seems to be shielded from the raw forces of economics. As long as the gov’t can print money, special interests can be paid.  A good career would be as a translator between Arabic and Mandarin.

Economic Katrina

I’m reluctant to sound alarmed, but with the apparent shape of an impending economic Katrina moving over North America, it is getting harder to grant the benefit of the doubt. The dollar is sinking, exposing this import-heavy nation of ours to price increases in nearly every sector. The petroleum resources that energize global production and grease all economic skids is generating considerable doubt and turmoil in financial circles.

Oil production is flat in many key regions but the demand for consumer goods by the global middle class is expanding.  Our television-enchanted population, brains scrambled to numbness by chronic exposure to American Idol, are seeing only what the media powerbrokers want us to see. The eternal message that comes from TV is spend, spend, spend

The popular economic indicator is the stock market. The DJIA up- good. The DJIA down- bad. It is a sort of pallative. We’re lulled into a false comfort zone by the meta-stability of todays stockmarket.  Other dots are beginning to line up into a harmonic convergence, however.

Yesterday, as a humorous conversation starter, I asked a senior colleague well placed in the petroleum industry this question- “when will crude oil hit $150/bbl?”.  His reply surprised me. He estimated that it would happen this summer. Later, tempering his answer somewhat, he suggested that it would be more like $130/bbl, and mostly on the strength of nervousness in the market. He added that at present, crude oil stocks in the USA were in ample supply. 

The extended weakness in the dollar seems to favor American exporters and disfavors import consumers. Hmmm.  Does gov’t inaction on the weakness of the dollar amount to bias for corporate constituents and neglect of unincorporated citizens? Curious.

Advice- payoff as much debt as possible. Insulate your house. Get rid of that gas guzzler. Accumulate greater savings. A lot of the soon-to-be-unemployed are going to face higher higher gasoline prices for their commute to the new job at the auto salvage yard. And when they get back to their trailer at night, the thermostat will be set low due to higher heating costs. Beans and weenies, Mac-n-Cheese. Bon apetite!

Political Analysis Paralysis

The election season is far too long. Every minute of this tedious pageant is filled with relentless microanalysis of the latest minutiae. No nuance is too small for the CNN impresario Wolf Blitzer or the goon squad at Fox News to dwell in an endless vortex of speculation and rhetorical webspinning.

Fox News in particular is incredibly brazen in its rightwing bent. Most hotels in which I have stayed recently favor this news source with a prominent spot on the channel selection. The pretense of neutrality is long gone. They are the Republican Broadcasting Network and have the same saccharin evangelical flavor as Pat Robertsons cable freakshow.  What liberal media? Hollywood? Please. Hollywood is just another kind of freakshow with better costumes.

I can see how countries devolve into unstable conditions where deep ideological differences disrupt the peace and lead to open conflict. I’d be in favor of secession of a few states if these rightwing boneheads wanted their own country. Just keep an eye on the nukes. There is deep frustration in this country and the only thing keeping angry mobs off the streets is relative prosperity.

Republican control is only paper thin. After the ’08 election, Democrat control will only be paper thin. The only thing that has happened in the Clinton and Bush II epochs is that both conservatives and liberals have become more articulate in their opposing positions.

Now I’m microanalyzing. It’s like a disease.

Eviction Action on CNN

On CNN this morning I happened to see a story on mortgage defaults in the Atlanta area. As the reporter spoke of the 7,000 evictions scheduled for February in Atlanta, we watched two police officers enter a house with service revolvers drawn.

No doubt there is a backstory to this particular event. All states have extensive statutes covering the resolution of landlord/tenant disputes. The statutes governing lender/mortgagee disputes is certainly full of delays in consideration of due process as well. So, the scene of the State storming into a home- through the agency of the police- is at the end of a procedural chain of events leading to forcible eviction.

But you have to ask the question- Is this heavy handed treatment of mortgagees necessary?  Are the police storming into homes with firearms drawn routinely? Maybe the mortgage lenders should be forced to go into the home and do it themselves? Maybe we should herd a pack of mortgage brokers door-to-door to do the dirty work.  This includes the industry finance geniuses and their pencil-necked B-School professors .

Evicting deadbeats is one thing.  I have done this distasteful job myself sometime back when I was stupid enough to have a rental property. It’s disturbing and ugly at the very best. But to have this finance fiasco end in such a way is a disgrace and the ethical-midgets and business cretins who devised and executed this negligent finance scheme need to see, taste, and smell the trouble they initiated. They should be dragged out of their office suites, tarred and feathered, and run out of the business community, or at least tatooed with a big red I for Imbecile on their foreheads and banned from finance for life. 

The borrowers who signed their names to such instruments should be forced to take a remedial math class where they must demonstrate a knowledge of compound interest. Exponents, people! Exponents!

Scalia On Torture

2/12/08.  Let me paraphrase what I just heard Justice Antonin Scalia say on NPR. In a replayed BBC interview, he said that he didn’t see anything in the constitution that prohibits the use of torture to get information. On the other hand, he said that the use of torture as punishment would be unconstitutional.

This is the first time I have heard this particular bit of analysis. That is the tack you’d expect him to make. A few colleagues and I had the opportunity to sit and have coffee with Scalia some years ago when he was on our campus. I left the gathering with the impression that he is a very formidable character. Defending a case in front of him would be nerve wracking.

It is worth remembering that the Supreme Court’s job is to deliberate and rule on matters of interpretation of the constitution. I would offer that the comments of a justice of SCOTUS are not to be taken as promulgation of moral authority, but rather as constitutional scholarship.

Highly civilized countries like Switzerland, The Netherlands, or Sweden have surely wrestled with the calculus of this matter. I wonder what they have concluded as to the merits of torture.  Maybe they are less squeemish about it than we are.

Addendum 2/13/08:  If you think about what torture really is, it is hard to come to the conclusion that Scalia is offering.  Interrogation torture is a circumstance wherein a person is detained and put under the requirement to disclose information.   To qualify as torture, as opposed to simple questioning, the detainee must be subject to a negative outcome. I think in the normal use of the term, merely serving time in confinement isn’t ordinarily considered torture. The customary understanding of the term includes negative treatment that produces stress, dread fear, pain and discomfort, or injury. 

You could argue that infliction of negative treatment as a result of detainee non-compliance is a form of punishment.  Infliction of negative treatment in anticipation of non-compliance would be cruelty.  To put it another way, if the infliction of pain and suffering is not a result of non-compliance, then it must be cruelty. If it is a result of non-compliance, then it it must be considered punishment.

I’ll have to disagree with Scalia’s assertion. I cannot escape the conclusion that the application of torture in questioning is either punishment or mere cruelty and therefore unconstitutional.

The notion that our form of “negative treatment” isn’t really torture is fatuous and should be abandoned. If we want to allow our elected government to torture people, then we should amend the constitution in the customary fashion to make allowances for this action. My guess is that most thinking adults will not gladly endorse a constitutional right to torture.

Send your Gluteal Scan to the FBI

It is hard to believe with all of the “good” news lately that the US gvernment is on our side. The Bush II Y2009 budget proposal comes in at a stunning $3.1 Trillion against an estimated $2.5 Trillion in receipts.

The FBI wants to collect biometric data on US citizens. It wasn’t clear to me as to whether they want to collect this data as law abiding citizens go about their business at airports with iris scans and electronic fingerprints, or if they will limit the effort to people taken into custody.  In any case, the notion of our government collecting ever more data on its citizens should bring chills to everyone.  It is all about control. Once taken, never returned.

I, for one, would be only too happy to fax a photocopy of my biometric gluteal cleft to the FBI to post wherever it suits them. It shines like a mackerel in the moonlight. In fact, there is a protest movement I could get on board with- The Million Man Moon on Washington.

The Customs and Border Patrol agency has proposed the new “10 + 2” rule which should be a real delite to deal with. We’re already scrambling to figure out what the hell this means for the purchasing people.  Lots of detailed info will have to be timed properly to keep things moving through customs.  It’s going to be a big mess and the only benefit will be that the government will collect more duties.

Chinese Cyberwar and US Interests

An intelligence report posted by International Relations and Security Network (ISN) at the Center for Security Studies at ETH in Zurich reveals what appears to be a widening and systematic program of cyber attacks on US government data infrastructure by elements within the military organ of China.

Rachel Kesselman at ISN Security Watch writes-

According to a 2006 US Defense Department report, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began developing information warfare reserves and militia units in 2005, often incorporating them into broader exercises and training. The establishment of this elite Chinese unit is evident by a likely increase in sophisticated attacks on high-risk targets.

Reports in Chinese newspapers also suggest that the Chinese are actively attempting to establish a cybermilitia. A Time Magazine article entitled “Enemies at The Firewall” purports that the military has put forth a concerted effort to carry out nationwide recruiting campaigns in hopes of discovering the country’s most brilliant hackers. 

Like so many Americans, I live in a bubble. The extent and brazenness of the activity reported by ISN and other sources only serves to stimulate the paranoid cortex of my brain.

What seems likely is that most nations are engaged in systematic probing of the data resources of the upper tier states. Chinese enthusiasm for this activity may or may not be exceptional among the nuclear states. Certainly, computer spycraft is nothing new and that China practices it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Henry Kissinger once remarked that nation states do not have friends. They only act in parallel with states having similar interests. In this vein, we should not be lulled into thinking that China, or any other state for that matter, is our friend. China is certainly not our friend. The US is a fountain of wealth that they aim to tap through government backed market activity.

Economic idealogues in the US prattle on tirelessly about the virtues of the free market and the merits of regulatory deconstruction. But on the global scale, markets are unavoidably tied to regulatory constructs as a result of notions about security and dominance.

Just try to get a shipment of anything to China or to South Africa or into the USA. There is no free market. Every single aspect of a transaction is highly regulated or controlled by some apparatus that is highly controlled. Tariff codes, tariffs, shipping reglations, wire transfers, and customs clearance- the reality of a free market barely extends past the canopy of a fruitstand in a farmers market.

I believe that the US should cast off this free market puritanism and act in a manner so as to protect its economic interests. Yes, we’d like to keep as free a market as possible. But American culture, not government, has to be the locus of change. American culture should de-emphasize its fascination with pure wealth and look askance at the sterile detachment many influential businessmen have with regard to their profit motive. We want to be profitable. But we do not want to hand over the keys to our technological toolshed for a quick buck. If we cannot afford to manufacture here, there should be an expectation that we try to innovate around the economic barriers rather than just resort to abandonment.

We should be wary about using the language of friendship with China. This nation has its own sense of where it is headed and has become quite refractory to admonitions and paternalistic brow beatings by the US and others.  It has its own momentum and will do what is in its best interest. Americans should do what is in their best interest as well. That is, avoid trading the farm to foreign interests who have much more discipline with their attention span. 

America’s Achilles heel seems to be the inability to be patient and plan for results over the long term. We live in a NOW culture. Advances in computer technology has only engorged our expectation that we can and should have everything now. The mortgage and credit crises are only the latest examples of this.

American culture has gotten fat and lazy. Our rotund wastelines are only the exterior. Within our culture is a kind of bacchanalian sloth that has drifted like a fog into our collective yard party. Everyone is too busy eating and drinking to notice that the greed-heads have set the house on fire.

Skeptical of Hydrogen as a Mass Market Fuel

If one examines the composition of propellants and explosives, what you find is that the successful and desirable compositions are those substances that decompose to produce many more moles of decomposition products than moles of starting materials.  As a result, modern propellant compositions have not just a preponderance of nitrogen atoms, but also more skeletal C-N or N-N linkages that replace C-C linkages. Dinitrogen as a decomposition product is more atom efficient in producing PV work than is CO2 or H2O if only because a molar volume of N2 contains only 2 moles of atoms as opposed to 3. 

Designers of explosives and propellants are principally concerned with doing work (W=Fd=PV) against the environment. It could be moving soil, forming a shock wave, or a accelerating a projectile out of a tube. Some particular mass needs to be accelerated over a distance and extracting the last bit of work from the expanding gases is desirable.

PV work is performed by evolving lots of -kJ/mol from heat of formation and arranging for the expanding gas to do something useful. In the case of propellants, dinitrogen formation yields a healthy heat of formation produced from making a triple bond. Hot gases want to expand and move whatever they are in contact with. The more molar volumes of gas generated, the more work that can be done. 

Some of the above line of thinking applies to the combustion of hydrocarbons as well, though the necessary formation of triatomic gases lowers the atom efficiency. The combination of C=O and H-O bonds being formed leads to a net evolution of heat compared to heat absorbed in breaking C-C, C-H, and O-O bonds. Properly chosen fuels and oxidizers provide a net increase in moles of gaseous products leading to an increase in molar gas volume.

Now, consider the case of the combustion of hydrogen and oxygen to produce water: 2 H2 + O2 –> 2 HOH.   In this reaction three moles of gas react to produce only 2 moles of  gas. There is a net loss in molar volume of 1/3 at constant presssure.  Obviously H2 reacts violently with O2 to produce PV work.  Hydrogen can be used to power an Otto cycle engine. But the net loss of molar volume across the reaction would appear to be a drawback to this system compared to others. The question I have is, how does this figure into the overall efficiency of H2 as a fuel?? 

Hydrogen is known to be problematic in engines due to what is called a cooling effect.

One of the key issues to consider with hydrogen economics is the fact that every last molecule has to be manufactured from hydrogen rich feedstocks using energy input. Hydrocarbons have to be cracked in some way, water has to be electrolyzed, or metals have to be oxidized with acid to produce dihydrogen. 

Given that H2 has to be manufactured by cracking hydrocarbon resources or electrolysis of water, does it make sense to use H2 as an automotive fuel? Why not just combust the hydrocarbon that was cracked to give up the H2 in the first place? Better yet, combust H2 at a centrally located gas turbine power plant and distribute the energy as electricity.

Hydrogen isn’t easily liquified (like propane) and the compressed gas requires heavy containment. 

With xtal ball in hand, the more I peer into the next 50 years, the more the future appears to be electrically powered. Todays hydrogen and ethanol schemes found in the popular media result from our collective unwillingness to address the real problem: How do we modify our behaviour to consume fewer kilowatt-hours (or BTU’s) per capita?

The answer is that we need to live closer to work, drive fewer miles, divert fewer hydrocarbons into disposable products, and generally consume fewer kg of resources per capita. Hydrocarbons are a very valuable resource- we’re fighting in the middle east over access to oil output in that part of the world. 

Petroleum distillates have a wonderful combination of attributes that make them valuable. Petroleum distillates have high energy density, they are liquid in ordinary conditions and hence can be pumped and atomized, they offer a choice of flash points, and are reasonably safe for people to handle. This is a splendid set of properties! We should be more appreciative and take better care of how we use it.

For Americans, a glimse of the future can be had for the price of a plane ticket to Japan or Europe. Higher population density, smaller portions of most things, and a larger fraction of income spent on energy.

Welcome to Taserville, Utah

Every day there seems to be another example of how our disfunctional society is tightening the spiral to chaos. The recent footage of a citizen getting tased by a patrolman in Utah is just the latest log on the fire. In the footage, the trooper stops a driver who then stridently disputes the signage and proclaims his innocence.

He refuses to sign the ticket and is then told to get out of the car by the patrolman. As directed, he walks to the spot where the patrolman asks him to stand. Foolishly, he persists on debating with the patrolman. The patrolman pulls his taser gun and warns the driver to stop and turn around (presumably for a target on the belly). As the driver walks away, the patrolman fires the taser and drops the driver to the ground.

What is troublesome to me is that the patrolman was not being physically threatened by the driver, only ignored. The only apparent risk to the patrolman up to that point was the possibility that the driver would take some time to answer to the patrolmans request. 

I think the driver did not know what kind of peril he was edging towards while attempting to use his “rhetorical skills” to persuade the trooper.

Could it be that the trooper used the taser as a matter of convenience rather than self defense?

Some will advance the argument that troopers are asked to risk their lives daily by pulling over potentially dangerous citizens. They should have this kind of latitude in their judgement calls. But I would say that electrocuting citizens because they are annoying is not a valid response.

What has happened in law enforcement the last decade is the institution of a more militaristic police presence in the USA.  SWAT teams, tasers, armored vehicles, and aggressive tactics all aimed at putting down troublesome citizens.

The whole criminal justice system is out of control. Our failed drug policies and overcrowded prisons are completely ignored by legislators. US drug law only seems to create scarcity and high prices for illicit drugs. It would seem that our puritanical War on Drugs only benefits special interest manufacturers of police equipment, security companies, and private prisons.  

Our prisons have had scant success with rehabilitation and only serve as a brutish, anti-civilizing crime practicum for prisoners. Prisoners are stigmatized with a felony record and consequently barred from most gainful occupations in the US. Why are we dismayed with high recidivism?

Many of my fellow citizens have a mean and brutish side that is not much changed from the days of westward expansion, the Klan, and the Indian wars. Unfortunately, we have a federal administration that is sympathetic to American exceptionalism and manifest destiny through superior firepower. 

We Americans are pretty damned good at demolition. But when it comes to the careful assembly of civilization, we’re bloody cavemen. We confuse the advance of civilization with tax law or better law enforcement. Building a more comprehensive police state is not progress.  It is consolidation of power by paranoid groups who are intolerent of the inherent disorder of pluralist populations.