Category Archives: Current Events

Reuters Receives Raw Materials for Fentanyl

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The news service Reuters recently published an article on the ease with which the raw materials for the production of the opioid Fentanyl. From their $3600 expenditure on raw materials they estimate they could have produced $3 million worth of Fentanyl.

For an estimated 74,702 Americans in 2023, Fentanyl provided them with a narcotic experience prior to death. The lethal dose is reported to be 2 milligrams for an adult. It is 20 to 40 times more potent than heroin.

Outside of medical use Fentanyl should be described as a highly (neuro)toxic substance rather than just an opioid. Yes, it is an illegal narcotic, but it is also a potent deadly poison. Hidden with other illegal drugs in pill form, it is just a highly toxic contaminant.

On January 5, 2024, I posted a piece titled “A Bit of Fentanyl Chemistry” which is reproduced below. It turns out that the Janssen synthetic chemistry I wrote about then is quite close to what the investigators at Reuters had in mind for their story. In the world of chemical commerce, a process using easily available raw materials is highly favored.

My take-home message from the Reuters story is that unless China seriously clamps down on those who export the raw materials, all that is left to do is to suppress demand. The import of Fentanyl raw materials is aided by deceptive packaging and small quantities needed. Worse, Fentanyl raw materials have other uses in pharmaceutical chemistry and are too useful to completely shut down. The death and incarceration that Fentanyl can bring in the US does not appear to be sufficiently convincing to the at-risk American population. Nothing new here.

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A recent raid on a clandestine drug lab in the Hatzic Valley east of Vancouver, BC, netted 25 kg of “pure” fentanyl and 3 kg which had already been cut for street use. Precursor chemicals used to manufacture the fentanyl were also seized. Along with the drug, the raid also seized 2,000 liters of chemicals and 6,000 liters (about 30 drums) of hazardous chemical waste, according to an RCMP news release 2 November, 2023.

The police said that the seizure represented 2,500,000 street doses.

In August of 2023 the police in Hamilton, Ontario, announced the results of Project Odeon. This was a large-scale sweep of illicit drug production in the Hamilton and Toronto area. From January 1, to July 30, 2023 there were 606 incidents related to suspected opioid overdoses and 89 suspected drug related deaths in the Hamilton area. Twelve people were charged for a total of 48 criminal charges. The police disclosed the following items that they seized-

  • An operational fentanyl drug lab at 6800 Sixteen Road, Smithville.
  • A dismantled fentanyl drug lab at 4057 Bethesda Road, Stouffville.
  • Approximately 3.5 tons of chemical byproduct from fentanyl production.
  • 800 gallons of chemicals commonly used in the production of fentanyl
  • Lab equipment commonly used in the production of fentanyl
  • 64.1 kg of illicit drugs, including 25.6 kg of fentanyl, 18 kg methamphetamine, 6 kg of ketamine
  • A loaded, Glock firearm and ammunition and four extended magazines
  • Over $350,000 of seized proceeds, including cars, jewelry, furniture and cash

Fentanyl is a synthetic drug first prepared in 1959 in Belgium by Paul Janssen (1926-2003). Janssen was the founder of Janssen Pharmaceuticals, now a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson. In addition to fentanyl, the Jenssen team developed haloperidol, the ultrapotent carfentanil, and other piperidine based congeners. Piperidine itself is a DEA List 1 substance in the US.

Carfentanil is just modified fentanyl. Graphics: Will O. de Wisp

The elephant in the room with fentanyl is its extraordinary potency as an opioid. In pharmacology, potency is a quantitative measure of the amount of dose needed to elicit a specific effect on an animal or human in terms of dose weight per kilogram of body mass. Potency is subject to variability across a population and rises to an asymptote which can be difficult to pin down. For these reasons potency is reported at 50 %. For highly potent drugs like fentanyl, the measure is expressed as milligrams or micrograms of dose per kilogram body weight (mg/kg or mcg/kg body weight). One milligram per kilogram is one part per million (ppm).

When matters of toxicity arise, it is important to remember the maxim that “the dose makes the poison”. This observation traces back to Paracelsus in the mid-sixteenth century.

“All things are poison, and nothing is without poison; the dosage alone makes it so a thing is not a poison.”

– Paracelsus, 1538. Source: Wikipedia

Fentanyl acts much like morphine in regard to its affinity for one particular opioid receptor. Morphine is commonly the “standard” with which other opioids are compared. For instance, fentanyl is said to be 50-100 times more potent than morphine. Only 2 mg of fentanyl is equivalent to 10 mg of morphine. Carfentanil is more potent still at 10,000 times the potency of morphine.

Morphine is an agonist which activates the μ-opioid receptor. Activation of this receptor with morphine produces analgesia, sedation, euphoria, decreased respiration and decreased bowel motility leading to the earthly delights of constipation. Fentanyl is thought to interact with this receptor as well.

Original fentanyl synthesis by Janssen. Graphics: Will O. de Wisp

So, how is fentanyl synthesized? See the synthetic scheme above. I’ll just comment on the Janssen synthesis and some issues. I have no idea of how it is made out in there by the Mexican cartels and in ramshackle American trailer parks. The synthesis above has some steps that may be undesirable for backwoods or jungle operations like hydrogenation. In the first step, aniline will be needed to make the phenyl imine. It’s pretty toxic and stinks to high heaven. Next, lithium aluminum hydride is needed to reduce the imine double bond to an amine. This innocent looking grey powder is very hazardous and should only be used by an experienced chemist. It is also available as a solution in tetrahydrofuran. The next step is the formation of the amide with propionic anhydride. While the reaction entails a simple reflux, you still have to isolate the product. Once you have recovered the amide, the benzyl protecting group on the piperidine nitrogen must be removed. It allowed amide formation exclusively on the upper aniline nitrogen and has served its purpose. Finally, the piperidine nitrogen must be festooned with a phenylethyl group and phenylethyl chloride was used to afford the fentanyl product. 

An excellent review of the pharmacology and drug design of this family of opioids, see Future Med Chem. 2014 Mar; 6(4): 385–412.

In chemical synthesis generally, substances are prepared in a stepwise manner and with as few steps as possible to give high isolated yields. To begin, one must devise a synthesis beginning with commercially available raw materials as close to the target as possible. If the product has many fragments hanging off the core structure, it’s best to solve that problem early. Synthetic chemistry is almost always performed in a non-interfering solvent that will dissolve the reactants and allow the necessary reaction to occur. A low boiling point is preferable for ease of distillation. An important side benefit from a solvent is that it will absorb much of the heat of reaction which can be considerable. Left on its own, a reaction might take its solvent to the boiling point by self-heating, generating pressure and vapor. The benefit from evaporation or reflux boiling is that as a solvent transitions from liquid to vapor there is a strong cooling effect which helps to control the temperature. An overhead condenser will return cooled solvent to prevent solvent loss.

You can do any chemical synthesis in one step with the right starting materials. Unfortunately, this option is rarely available. The next best option is to take commercially available starting materials through a known synthetic scheme. People who run illicit drug labs are never interested in R&D. They want (and need) simple chemistry that can be done by non-chemists in buckets or coke bottles at remote locations. Chemical glassware can be purchased but sometimes the authorities will be notified of a suspicious order. This is especially true with 12 liter round bottom flasks.

The most difficult and risky trick to illicit drug synthesis is obtaining starting materials like piperidine compounds in the case of fentanyl and its congeners. In the case of heroin, acetic anhydride shipments have been investigated for a long time because it is used to convert morphine to heroin- an unusually simple one-step conversion. Solvent diethyl ether is similarly difficult to get outside of established companies or universities. Many other common drug starting materials are difficult to obtain legally in the US or EU by the criminal element. However, China is thought to be a major supplier of starting materials outside the US and EU. Countries with remote coastlines, loose borders, lackadaisical or corrupt law enforcement reduce the barriers for entry of drug precursors.

China in particular has a large number of chemical plants that make diverse precursors for legitimate drugs. Unfortunately, some of these precursors can also be used for illicit drugs or existing technology adapted for this use. Precursors can be sold to resellers who can do as they please with them. Agents may represent many manufacturers and can mask the manufacturer’s identity and take charge of the distribution abroad. Shady transactions become difficult for authorities to detect and trace. The identity of illicit precursor chemicals are easily altered in the paperwork to grease the skids through customs. Resellers can repackage chemicals to suitable scale, change the paperwork and jack up the price for export. It has been my experience that many if not most Chinese or Japanese chemical manufacturers conduct business through independent export agents. However, behind the curtains there often a byzantine web of connections between companies and agents, so you may never know who will manufacture your chemical. As an aside, this complicates getting technical information from the manufacturer since the agent will not disclose a contact at that manufacturer.

Highly potent drugs like fentanyl must be taken in very small dosages which means that kilo-scale batch quantities of drug result in many individual sales per kilo. Small quantities of highly potent drugs are more easily smuggled than bulky drugs like weed with its strong odor.

There is a down-side to the illicit manufacture of drugs like fentanyl. It is quite toxic at very low dosages and must be handled with the greatest of care lest the “cook” and other handlers get inadvertently and mortally poisoned. Good housekeeping helps, but I have yet to see a photo of a tidy drug lab.

Fentanyl can be sold as a single drug but perhaps is cut with a solid diluent that some random yayhoo decided was Ok to use. Other drugs of abuse like heroin may be surreptitiously spiked with fentanyl to kick up the potency. In either case, a given dosage may or may not be safe even for a single use. There is no way for a user to know. Also, the concentration or homogeneity of mixed solids may be subject to wide variation. For more than a few people, their first fentanyl dose will be their last.

Russian Death-Tanks

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Numerous YouTube videos depict the widespread destruction of Russian tanks in the invasion of Ukraine, giving the impression that these tanks are more lethal to Russian soldiers than their opponents. Despite being equipped with Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA), their ability to withstand artillery, mines, and drone attacks seems minimal. Moreover, when the armor is breached, the cannon gun propellant tends to ignite violently, causing the warheads to explode and instantly killing the crew. Occasionally, the force of ammunition blasts is so strong that it hurls the turret with gun barrel into the air, a stark illustration of the power of such explosions. Consequently, videos frequently capture Russian tank crews abandoning their crippled vehicles and fleeing for safety. Instead of offering protection, tanks have become conspicuous and cumbersome targets, prone to devastating attacks.

One might question the practical value of reactive armor. The landscapes of eastern Ukraine are strewn with thousands of destroyed Russian tanks, their ERA blocks still intact. Perhaps its practical value lies in bolstering the confidence of tank crews to engage in battle, trusting in the ERA’s protective capabilities. However, it is now challenging to believe that ERA instills a sense of safety in tank crew members. The effectiveness of reactive armor seems negated by potent penetrator warhead countermeasures capable of breaching the ERA. The pertinent question remains: does the ERA diminish the impact of an incoming shell sufficiently to be considered effective?

The conflict between Putin and Ukraine will eventually conclude, and the victors will promptly seek to repurpose the battlefields for peacetime activities. However, they must first contend with numerous challenges, including the presence of unexploded ordnance. Thousands of mines may remain hidden, posing a threat for decades unless they are securely disposed of or neutralized.

The landscape of the battle zones is marred by bomb craters, charred vehicles—many with unexploded ammunition—minefields, unexploded ordnance scattered about, live explosive reactive armor on destroyed armored vehicles, and soil polluted with shrapnel and residues from countless detonated artillery shells.

Numerous cities and villages, particularly those near the Russian border, have been completely obliterated by Putin’s military, resulting in tens of thousands of civilian casualties and leaving most without homes. The remnants of homes, businesses, and infrastructure stand as a testament to the survivors. For them, social and economic frameworks are now just distant memories. Civilization has been set back by at least a generation due to Putin’s distorted ambitions for an imperial legacy. The man is not insane or unintelligent; he is quite astute and fully aware of his actions—he is simply a terrible person. Currently, the US is facing its own challenge with a figure of ill repute seeking control of the government, backed by a significant number of misguided followers.

In the conflict in Ukraine, it’s conceivable that one precisely aimed bullet could have altered the course of events, a notion that has been a sad reality in many wars. This was a concern even during Stalin’s time. Since 2000, Putin and his associates have been systematically constructing the framework for an authoritarian state and military power, positioning him at the apex of power. His ambition is to supplant the hegemony of the US and NATO with the hegemony of Russia.

The conflict has been a catastrophic event for the region’s flora and fauna, significantly hindering the biosphere in numerous areas. Ukraine, until recently, was a significant grain producer and exporter, essential for the sustenance of millions. In the early stages of the conflict, Russia targeted and destroyed much of Ukraine’s grain distribution infrastructure, aiming to debilitate the economy and hasten a surrender. The bombings of civilian residences, hospitals, and other infrastructures will tarnish Putin’s reputation, marking him as a tyrant and a fundamentally flawed individual. Additionally, the reported abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children by Russia for forced assimilation and adoption raises serious legal and humanitarian questions. These actions are meticulously recorded for potential future war crimes proceedings and historical record.

Elon: Right-Wing Culture Warrier

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[Warning: Snarkiness ahead.]

Note: Soon after Biden’s announcement of stepping down from the presidential race and his support of Kamala Harris, Musk announced that he was backing out of his plan to donate to Trump. Fancy that.

Republican oligarch Elon Musk has announced that he will be donating $45 million per month to a Silicon Valley super-PAC run by conservatives Joe Lonsdale and the Winklevoss twins supporting the reelection of #45, DJT. If there was any doubt before, it is crystal clear now that Musk is a full-throated carnival barker for DJT-JDV, $45 million for #45.

The richest guy in the world (whose liquidity is questionable) is blossoming into a real kingmaker for America. Holy red crab snappers, Batman, isn’t that swell?

Everyone knows that these megadonors bankroll Republicans as an investment. This assertion sounds like blaming a crocodile for eating people- it’s just what they do. Both Trump and Vance have publicly denounced electric vehicles. Even if Musk’s $180 megabuck donation does not result in cash back, there is certainly continued access to the rarefied heights of politics. Perhaps the Trump-Vance dynamic duo will revisit their stance on electric vehicles.

Musk’s SpaceX has received billions in federal contracts and Tesla has benefitted from electric vehicle subsidies. It’s hard to say that it has been different under the Biden Democrats.

It is bad enough to have a wannabe fascist, Putin-admiring dictator become president again, but to have the world’s wealthiest demagogues heaping cash into the kitty to tip the balance is yet another shit sandwich for the USA. Where does much of this money go? To advertising, payroll, campaign staff, printers and to entertainment venues for campaign events. Why don’t the electronic media go after #45 for his obviously felonious and vile behavior with a large helping of dictatorial inclination? Advertising revenue, silly. To hold back screen time on the Orange Jesus would be to bite the ad buyer’s hand that feeds them.

As an independent voter, I blame the national Democratic Party for gross dereliction of duty in failing to groom talented successors to Biden over the past decade. Where are they? The senior Dems in congress are talented where they are, but none seem to be interested in gambling on a run for the White House.

Source: Amazon.

A Soviet-Style Trip the Hermit Kingdom.

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Note: Recently I posted an early revision of this essay by accident and had to pull it down. Trembling with embarrassment, I wiped the egg from my face and am now posting the intended version. A thousand pardons.

Imagine the frustration of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, as he discovers the shortcomings of what was presumed to be a premier conventional military force. Decades of corruption and neglect have eroded the military from within. Meanwhile, their nuclear submarines continue to lurk in the depths of the Atlantic, assessing NATO’s day-to-day preparedness and gathering intelligence. Strategic nuclear forces are best used as a deterrent, or so the thinking has been. Coincidentally, their naval procession to Cuba, intended as a demonstration of power, was no doubt monitored by our network of acoustic sensors.

Runup to the invasion

Why did Putin begin his invasion of eastern and southern Ukraine in February 2014? Publicly he claimed to “de-Nazify” Ukraine. At the time, Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych was facing the Euromaidan uprising beginning in November 2013, over his rejection of closer integration with the EU. This large-scale protest was in response to Yanukovych’s refusal to sign the European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement rather than strengthening ties to Russia.

Putin’s essay

Just prior to the 2022 invasion the Kremlin published an article online by Putin going into great detail on his rationale for a “triune” state consisting of Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine. It was a “come to Jesus” appeal intended to show doubters that a common ethnic brotherhood existed that far exceed the differences between Ukrainians and Russians. He describes the current Ukrainian state as an anti-Russian project also serving the interests of other entities rather than ethnic unity with Russia.

“But the fact is that the situation in Ukraine today is completely different because it involves a forced change of identity. And the most despicable thing is that the Russians in Ukraine are being forced not only to deny their roots, generations of their ancestors but also to believe that Russia is their enemy. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the path of forced assimilation, the formation of an ethnically pure Ukrainian state, aggressive towards Russia, is comparable in its consequences to the use of weapons of mass destruction against us.” -V. Putin, 2022. [Italics mine]

It’s worth noting that in Russian occupied parts of Ukraine, Russification has been underway in order to make Ukrainians forget their culture and to assimilate into Russian culture. Children were kidnapped early in the 2022 invasion and taken to Russia for assimilation.

Referring to the Ukrainian ruling circles, “They began to mythologize and rewrite history, edit out everything that united us, and refer to the period when Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union as an occupation. The common tragedy of collectivization and famine of the early 1930s was portrayed as the genocide of the Ukrainian people.” V. Putin [Italics mine]

Here Putin combines the Ukrainian famine, the Holodomor of 1932-33, with the wider Soviet famine of 1930-33 as a unifying experience that should in his view bring people together in shared tragedy. Whether or not Stalin had intended to cause a genocide of Ukrainians during the Holodomor is still being debated. However, Ukrainians were forcibly prevented from leaving the territory and their agricultural produce was taken from them. The Soviets even took their seed for the next year’s crop (see: Timothy Snyder, “Bloodlands“, 2016, ISBN-13 : ‎978-0465031474). Whatever the case, the singular focus of Stalin’s first 5-year plan beginning in 1928, was to industrialize the Soviet Union. In Marxist-Leninist political theory, the more prosperous kulaks were class enemies of the poorer peasants. Kulaks were either arrested, executed, sent to the gulag, or to labor camps.

Russian military in the 2022 Putin/Ukrainian war

Within the many layers of rank in the Russian military, there is a notable absence. There is no non-commissioned officer (NCO) level like that found in the US military. Yes, they do have NCOs, but they are technical specialists, or enlisted professionals taken from conscripted or contracted soldiers, uninvolved with small unit leadership and training. That is left for the officer corps. The result has been poor and inconsistent training of recruits. Hazing has long been a problem for the new recruits. Many view the Russian system of military leadership structure as inherently weak and a stubborn vestige of the past.

Perhaps fortified by a misjudgment of their military posture, Putin launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, into what has been a sovereign country under the pretense of neutralizing a non-existent threat from supposed Nazi troublemakers as a way to protect Russia. Russian forces quickly began to suffer significant losses in personnel and equipment. Moreover, these defeats have unfolded before an astonished global audience. Fortunately for Putin, his dictatorial foresight had led him to seize control of all media outlets within his borders in the years prior. He watched as his senior military commanders depleted his standing army. Under the pretense of “patriotism,” he drafted civilians and prisoners with the promise of attractive contracts to participate in his ill-conceived “special military operation.” Unfortunately, these soldiers became cannon fodder against the NATO fortified Ukrainian forces. Despite the overall drubbing the Russian military is taking and the half million casualties suffered, they retain the eastern and southern territories annexed prior to the Feb. 2022 invasion.

Putin pays a visit to Kim

Putin’s recent trip to North Korea, reminiscent of Soviet-era diplomacy, and his signing of a mutual assistance agreement with Kim Jong-un, prompted South Korea to reconsider its stance and contemplate supplying arms to Ukraine.South Korea, a manufacturing giant, currently has minimal incentive to engage with Russia as a neutral entity. Russia’s economy, struggling and cash-strapped, requires goods and services. It has been excluded from the international banking system and has seen a decline in amicable trade relations.

Now the word is that DPRK will be sending military engineers to the Putin/Ukraine war. While DPRK’s construction and engineering forces are not referred to as a fighting force, you have to believe that they will fight to defend themselves if they claim to be threatened. What the threshold for “threat” is will eventually be revealed.

Another threat made by Putin is that Russia will send arms to DPRK if the west continues to supply arms to Ukraine. The transfer of technology and materials in aid of the DPRK’s nuclear ICBM ambitions is sure to be the big prize Kim is after. Launching a payload is one thing, but accurate targeting is quite another. I suppose he can use GPS like everyone else does.

We’re hearing that wounded Russian soldiers are being sent back to the front, many with shrapnel from previous combat. I guess they figure that since they are wounded anyway, they might as well get the last bit of mileage left in them. This is certainly no less moral than leaving their dead behind or sending “meat curtains” of poorly trained troops to the front lines. Or, shooting their own soldiers if they retreat from the fighting.

Putin could stop the fighting and carnage in a day if he declared “mission complete” and withdrew his forces from Ukraine and returned claimed territory back to where it was the day of February 24, 2022, invasion. Well, this was the theory of Henry Kissinger. It seems likely, though, that the Ukrainians want back the territory lost in 2014 including Crimea.

Unfortunately for everyone, a withdrawal from Ukraine would be seen in Russia as Putin’s confession of gross incompetence and surely would result in a takeover and death or imprisonment for him.

The Kremlin has used “weaponized migration” elsewhere and is now trafficking immigrants across its western borders through Belorussia, into Finland, the lower Baltic states and Poland in order to overwhelm western border protection and to distract them as he transfers military forces east to the front. At the borders they have been creating a commotion causing western security resources to focus there. This is Russian hybrid warfare and is likely led by Russian intelligence services. Immigrants from various nations like Syria, Iraq and Somalia are given visas in an attempt to make it look like legitimate immigration. One of the goals of these roving throngs of civilians is to travel to western Europe to strain their economies and raise bureaucratic headaches for western governments like Germany. Naturally, saboteurs, spies and terrorists are likely planted in with the immigrants.

Russia has allegedly been jamming or spoofing GPS signals in the Nordic and Baltic Sea region causing interference with commercial air traffic. More Russian hybrid warfare. This affects not only air traffic but ground and sea navigation as well. Commercial air traffic can still fly under inertial navigation or by ground radar between airports and by terminal radar on approach and departure. Terminal radar guides aircraft into the airport instrument landing system (ILS) which is ground based and not affected by GPS. Airlines do monitor their aircraft with the help of GPS, however.

Fighting the last war

There is a saying, attributed to French Prime Minister George Clemenceau, warning generals not to enter conflict by fighting the last war. Putin began with fighting “the last war” with artillery and WWII-era tanks while keeping the Russian population calm with well-crafted fake news continuously delivered to the public. Unexpectedly, he did not seek air superiority starting the first day of the invasion before bringing in ground forces.

The propaganda in Russia today is that they are actually at war with NATO itself with extra blame on the US and UK. Russian war bloggers are even claiming that Ukraine’s drones and missiles can and are being controlled directly by NATO from remote locations. There are many voices on Russian television and in the blogosphere calling for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Putin and Medvedev have also waved this big stick around as well.

In response to Putin’s unwarranted invasion, most of the free world made the decision to withdraw its financial and trade connections, especially with the purchase of oil and gas (O&G). O&G is a huge money maker for Putin’s dictatorship and funds much of Russia’s government. Interestingly, while initially very concerned, the Oligarchs have learned to stop worrying.

Economic effects

An urgent problem presently in the Russian oil industry is the matter of upkeep on imported technology like oil refineries. Russia previously hired foreigners to build and maintain most of its oil refineries and licensed proprietary unit operations. Many of the foreign businesses that supplied these services have left Russia. As the clock tick-tocks along, equipment breaks down or misses scheduled maintenance. Replacement parts have become very difficult to obtain. This has a huge influence on the country’s refinery output in particular and on other industry in general.

Russia’s loss of trading partners is having a deleterious effect. Tax revenues are down into the deficit range across the board and the Russian government is working to introduce new taxes on the people. There is even word that laws are being drafted to increase the range and cost of fines against citizens who fail to put in the required extra effort. According to Forbes, the State Duma is tightening laws relating to labor and business operations are forcing employees to work weekends and holidays, especially if the business is military related.

Nukes behind the curtains

Of course, Putin has his nuclear armaments to fall back on. Much was made previously of the Soviet’s continuum theory of nuclear weapons, whereby they didn’t recognize a firebreak separating conventional and nuclear warfare as the west does. Putin and former president Medvedev both have been rattling their swords, threatening to use their nuclear weapons if the west does not back down in supplying Ukraine with arms. Most think that they threaten to use tactical nukes only. Both sides are quite aware what a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia would look like. That said, only the first use will be a difficult decision.

Nuclear response in kind by NATO to Russia’s first use in the Russia/Ukraine battle space could possibly be limited to tactical use, but it will have let the nuclear genie out of the bottle nonetheless. Both NATO and Soviet/Russian military institutions have certainly war-gamed a similar scenario to many possible outcomes. People safely distant from the fighting will have to decide the intensity of a nuclear exchange and at what point to release strategic weapons, if needed.

One thing seems clear- a strategic exchange will be WWIII and Russia’s seething hatred of the US will not allow North America to survive untouched by war. Given the geographic and military limitations of Russia and the broad stretches of open ocean around most of the US, shallow trajectory ballistic or cruise missiles launched from Russian submarines are likely to be at play. Maybe an EMP weapon will be used. (Hell, a nuke hidden in a bale of weed could get into the country.) It seems likely that Russian hybrid tactics will first begin to soften the defensive, electric power, transportation and communication structures of the US by interfering with software-controlled everything. Naturally, the fragile stock market will collapse promptly, and unemployment will skyrocket. Toilet paper will vanish as if by magic from the store shelves.

Both NATO and Russia have enough nuclear weapons to go back and bounce the rubble a few times at leisure with their ICBMs and SLBMs. The total warhead count in the world’s nuclear powers is shown below as tallied by the Arms Control Association. The total warhead count for each country includes both tactical and strategic weapons as well as retired warheads. Nuclear weapons have a shelf-life and require some refurbishment over time. For instance, the tritium booster gas in the pit is subject to decay with tritium’s short half-life.

Source: Arms Control Association.

New START data on Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons inventory is shown below. As you can see, Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons inventory is poised to make quite a mess of their target areas from a great distance. On the strategic side (below), nuclear weapons can be delivered to a target across the world via strategic bomber, or a ballistic missile. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Sea Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), and a collection of shorter range arial platforms could be used in combination.

Source: NuclearForces.org.

Will Russia be tempted to try using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, even if NATO is sure to reply? At what point will a tactical exchange between Russia and NATO runaway to a strategic exchange? It seems unlikely given the terrible strategic downside of NATO retaliation. Certainly, if allowed to act unobstructed, Russia could make quite a nuclear mess in Europe and North America. However, NATO commanders will not allow their nuclear arsenal to be destroyed in storage.

The late Gene Sharp was known for his theory of non-violent resistance. Sharp argued that

“political power is not intrinsic to the power-holder,” but flows from outside sources that include perceptions of authority, available human resources; skills and knowledge; material resources; and intangible psychological and ideological factors. These sources all depend upon obedience, which arises for “various and multiple” reasons that include habit, fear of sanctions, perceived moral obligation, psychological identification with the ruler, zones of indifference, and absence of self-confidence among subjects. Obedience is essentially voluntary, and consent can be withdrawn. [Wikipedia]

Dictators do not often yield their power without violence, but now and then one will see the futility of fighting to the death against overwhelming resistance and abdicate after a face-saving attempt to stifle the uprising. This happened in the late 1980’s in eastern Europe leading up to the collapse of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev in 1991.

Russia will not change its ways until there is a decapitation at the upper few levels of its authoritarian police state. The population has been too passive for too long to expect a popular uprising like the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia in 1989. Russian opposition leaders are either poisoned, defenestrated or sent to prison as a security threat. Only a military coup could pull off a major change in leadership, but then you have a military authoritarian state.

Source: Wikipedia. The Defenestrations of Prague.

A time-honored way to generate and maintain unity in a nation is to direct blame and struggle towards a foreign power. Both sides in the post-WWII cold war, NATO and the USSR, used this to focus resources and political angst in their respective favor. Putin has managed to revive this “good vs evil” duality not only to secure his power, but also to drive ethnic Russians toward his goal of a Greater Russian Empire.

Mass Groveling of the GOP Brain Trust

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The news today from Faux News is that picayune Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., wants to rename the Exclusive Economic Zone after Donald J. Trump. All 4,383,000 square miles of it. He proposes to call it the “Donald John Trump Exclusive Economic Zone of the United States.” The EEZ extends out 200 miles offshore around the entirety of the US and possessions.

According to Mirriam Webster-

picayune • \pik-ee-YOON\ • adjective. : of little value : paltry; also : petty, small-minded.

This is after the earlier attempt to rename Washington-Dulles Airport after the orange felon. The brainwave behind this was Rep. Guy Reschenthaler, R-Pa., the House GOP’s chief deputy whip. This was supported by Reps. Michael Waltz, R-Fla.; Andy Ogles, R-Tenn.; Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn.; Paul Gosar, R-Ariz.; Barry Moore, R-Ala.; and Troy Nehls, R-Texas.

Do we actually have to say it? How can this be any more than open groveling for favor by orthodox MAGA-mites at the top of the pyramid holding up an offering to the Orange Sun God. Could it actually be more pathetic?

Congressional Republican Mandarins pleading before the Orange Sun God for a bountiful election.

Shell CEO Tips his Hat to the Biden Administration

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Here is a link to an article reporting on comments made by Wael Sawan, CEO of oil major Shell plc. He stated that Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act “seem to be working in terms of attracting a significant amount of capital in different states, whether it’s a red or blue state,” at a meeting of the centrist Center for Strategic and International Studies.

It wasn’t all sweetness and light. He was critical of the Biden administration for its decision to pause new LNG export permits pending a thorough review of climate impacts. Sawan explained his view-

“I think sometimes the disagreement stems from the fact that it is a fossil fuel, therefore it cannot be clean. There is an almost absolutist perspective on this that some have” in parts of Washington and some European capitals, he said. “While I respect that view, the reality is it is an energy transition. And we need to be able to transition to lower-carbon solutions.”

I have to agree with his comment. Given the colossal size of the global oil & gas (O&G) industry and the extensive reach of our reliance on petroleum fuels and chemical products like plastics, there must be a transition shallow enough to evolve into renewables without crashing the global economy and the political upset that will come from that. The path to renewables has to start sometime, but maybe there should be some negotiation on the LNG export permits, if there already hasn’t been any. Sawan’s comments on this were valuable.

The matter of climate change is pressing and the motivation to change rapidly is irresistible to many. But it took many decades to get into this mess and it looks like it will take some time to ameliorate it. In the meantime, we the public can alter our consumption and driving habits en masse and make real change faster than government policy.

De-platforming Trump and Misinformers From Twitter, YouTube and Facebook. The Effect on Disinformation.

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The top-tier scientific journal Nature published on June 5, 2024, a research paper on the effects of Twitter de-platforming 70,000 accounts providing fake news. Unfortunately for many (most?) of us, online access to Nature is behind a paywall.

I won’t waste time on an analysis of someone else’s brief analysis of the hidden Nature article “Post-January 6th deplatforming reduced the reach of misinformation on Twitter.” Am I too miserly for not paying for a Nature article or a subscription? Yes, I am. I will include a link here to a brief online review article at TechPolicy.press for the readers consideration.

“The report makes clear that the authors could not reliably identify the magnitude of the observed effects due to the complexity of the events surrounding the insurrection and the volume of the news reporting on it, and that the results may not be generalizable to other platforms or events. But while Twitter normally “benefitted enormously from Trump’s volatile tweets” by keeping the platform “at the center of public discourse,” they say, the events at the US Capitol marked a moment of crisis for the company. “January 6th is a moment that highlights the relationship between real-world violence and misinformation, as well as the attempt at purposeful control over political speech on Twitter by its leadership,” the paper reads. In th [sic] moment of crisis, perhaps the bluntest of content moderation tools appears to have had the intended effect.” Source: TechPolicy.Press [Emphasis mine]

Instead of relying on words and handwaving, the authors of the Nature paper above used actual Twitter data from 500,000 users over June 2020 to February 2021 to extract trends about the very complex behavior surrounding the Jan 6th, 2021, event. Again, from the TechPolicy.press article …

“To answer these questions, the researchers used data acquired during the two most recent US election cycles to compare the misinformation sharing rates on Twitter. The 2020 election share rate among all Twitter users was five times higher than in the 2016 elections, and about twice as high among misinformation sharers. Following the November 2020 elections, and up until January 6th, the rates of misinformation remained “relatively high,” which is in direct contrast with the 2016 elections, where misinformation “declined immediately following Trump’s victory.” These results suggest “a marked change in the misinformation ecosystem on Twitter over time,” according to the paper.” Source: TechPolicy.Press [Emphasis mine]

It is interesting how the “misinformation declined immediately following Trump’s victory.” Golly, why would that be?

A doff of the hat to the authors.

An Eye for an Eye: The Right of Requital

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[Note: I’m about to make a mistake. I am commenting on the Israeli/Hamas conflict on the internets for the whole world to see.]

Basic to the Israel/Hamas conflict is the general matter of who has the right to reoccupy ancestral land. In the Levant, possession of the land has changed hands many, many times over history. Today, Russia is claiming that it has the right to “re-absorb” Ukraine back into what is now the greater Russian empire. The Chinese Communist Party claims that Taiwan belongs to the mainland Chinese. Conflicts over entitlement to territory is a persistent threat to global peace, especially now that nuclear-tipped missiles can cross great distances in a short time or can suddenly pop out from under coastal waters.

The bloody war between Hamas and Israel drags on. I think a few forget that the conflict between Palestinians and Israeli Zionists has been raging for many years. The current war is only the latest outburst and a particularly bloody one at that. The right of requital, or the principle of an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth is the guiding theory there.

Prior to this war I’ll admit that I was somewhat biased toward Israel because, even as a non-theist, I find their culture generally agreeable. But the bombing and mass extermination of civilians in Gaza as well as the embargo on food and medicine getting into Gaza is beyond any justification. Having been a victim does not give anyone the right to victimize other parties. An eye-for-an-eye is a specious argument.

Destroying whole buildings, neighborhoods, cities or territories with weapons where civilians may be present could be an indiscriminate attack. A quote from Indiscriminate Attack in Wikipedia-

“In international humanitarian law and international criminal law, an indiscriminate attack is a military attack that fails to distinguish between legitimate military targets and protected persons. Indiscriminate attacks strike both legitimate military and protected objects alike, thus violating the principle of distinction between combatants and protected civilians. They differ from direct (or deliberate) attacks against protected civilians and encompass cases in which the perpetrators are indifferent as to the nature of the target, cases in which the perpetrators use tactics or weapons that are inherently indiscriminate (e.g., cluster munitions, anti-personnel mines, nuclear weapons), and cases in which the attack is disproportionate, because it is likely to cause excessive protected civilian casualties and damages to protected objects.” Source: Wikipedia.

“Indiscriminate attacks are prohibited both by the Geneva Conventions Additional Protocol I (1977) and by customary international humanitarian law. They constitute a war crime under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, and the perpetrators can be prosecuted and held responsible in international and domestic courts.” Source: Wikipedia.

“In 1977, Protocol I was adopted as an amendment to the Geneva Conventions, prohibiting the deliberate or indiscriminate attack of civilians and civilian objects in international armed conflicts; the attacking force must take precautions and steps to spare the lives of civilians and civilian objects as possible. Although ratified by 173 countries, the only countries that are currently not signatories to Protocol I are the United States, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, India, and Turkey.” Source: Wikipedia.

What about the Geneva Conventions relating to civilians? There have been 4 Geneva Conventions. The Fourth Geneva Convention covers humanitarian protections of protected civilians in a war zone.

Even if a nation is not a signatory or it hasn’t been ratified, from my western point of view the Geneva Conventions seem to outline the shape of decency, kindness and humanity.

Irrespective of the Geneva Conventions as at least an optional guide, neither combatants are concerned with the guidelines. Whether or not the Geneva Conventions could even include organizations like Hamas and others is unclear (to me).

I’ve noticed that social media is filling up with anti-Israel content. I’ve given up trying to understand who the more righteous party in this conflict is. I am unable to support either side. The attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, was obviously a savage orgy of murder. Hamas had to have known that this act would provoke a retaliation that would affect Palestinian civilians.

I’ve long admired Israel because it has built a modern thriving civilization from the ground up. But, it has done so on homelands claimed and occupied by others. As an outside observer I’m sad for the Palestinians for their long suffering under Israeli control since 1948. The Israelis have built an apartheid zone and have confined a large number of Palestinians to the tiny Gaza strip and the West Bank. On the other side, however, numerous extremist groups have taken hold and shelter in Palestinian territories with the aim of killing all Israelis and have been doing so intermittently for years. These groups have received support from Iranian leaders and other players making the conflict a proxy war. Iran wishes for nothing less than demolition of the state of Israel and installing a far-reaching Islamic caliphate. They seem prepared for the long game. Just connect the dots.

Now, the US has bombed Yemen to prevent the Houthis from further attacking international shipping. A coalition of forces, principally the UK and US, has been intercepting drones and cruise missiles aimed at Israeli targets and ships intending to transit the Suez Canal. The Houthis, who have been engaged in a lengthy civil war in Yemen, have been building their military bona fides to further their ties with Iran, or so some say. The boldness of Iranian provocation continues to rise. Who knows what will happen after they test their first nuclear weapon?

From within the Hamas frame of reference, perhaps a big provocation followed by a big retaliation might rally Islamic nations against Israel and its sponsors?? As I understand it, what isn’t helping their cause is the bad taste Palestinians left in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon in the past. There is a sense that to accept Palestinian immigration is to accept a population carrying militancy with it.

Israel’s response to the attack was to retaliate with shock and awe in Gaza in an effort to exterminate Hamas once and for all. From within the Israeli frame of reference, there is a certain cold military logic to their strategy in greater Gaza. However, whatever support Israel may have had from the 10/7/23 attack has withered. Israel cannot shake the historical facts of its founding- that it was established by displacing Palestinians from their home territory. Palestinians are still furious about Zionist colonization. Palestinians were simply removed from their homes and driven out. The same thing is happening in slow motion in the West Bank. While the world’s attention was elsewhere, Gaza was cemented into an open-air prison camp far short of liberties that we in the US take for granted.

Unfortunately for Israel, Hamas represents a political belief system strongly coupling homeland with Islam. Extinguishing a belief amounts to long term Wack-A-Mole. Palestinians are in desperate straits and have no place to call their own. In their abysmal location in Gaza, why should they stop the struggle?

Unfortunately for Hamas, the State of Israel in its present location is a long-held dream come true for Zionists. Israelis have nowhere to go even if they did give up the land. Israelis will fight to the death rather than handing over what they believe is their ancestral homeland. Israel is a nuclear state and will likely use their nuclear weapons if state collapse is threatened. Isn’t that what every nuclear state threatens to do?

What we see is a never-ending cycle of retribution. One side is brutalized and eventually strikes back.  Many take the view that past Israeli or Palestinian victimhood does not justify continued victimization. The killing of non-combatants is simply unjustifiable and must stop. The Palestinian death toll is over 33,000, most of whom are reportedly women and children. The Islamic world will not soon forget this assault on Gaza and the role of the US.

The role of the US in this conflict is troubling. We’ve always been supporters of Israel. Israel and Turkey are claimed to be the only countries in the Levant resembling a democracy. There is strong political support from Jewish and Christian Zionist communities in the US. The magnitude of this translates into hard support for Israel in terms of funding and weapons. Israel’s soft power is US backing in international matters including military support.

For the US to support the Palestinians would be taken as an affront to the Israelis and would be political suicide for any US administration taking such a position. Israel enjoys considerable support in the US and such a stance would not survive. Obviously.

I am a supporter of the Biden administration and the direction he has taken the country generally. I agree there is a logic to long term support of democracies around the world. However, Biden’s public and unwavering support of Netanyahu’s Israel has been, I believe, a strategic mistake during this conflict. There are indications in the news that there is a quiet effort behind the curtains to convince Netanyahu that the mass killing of Gazans is the wrong choice. Recently Biden and Netanyahu have spoken and signs that the severity on Gazans lightening is apparent.

I’m an American and I agree with and support our democratic values emphasizing life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. So, to militarily and politically support a nation that is exterminating civilians, democracy or not, is immoral.

US policy toward both the state of Israel and Palestine/Gaza/West Bank must undergo major recalibration to a more balanced approach in the region. The Palestinian demand for the return of their homeland did not suddenly fall from the sky. It has been there from the beginning. The State of Israel is the result of documented actions taken by the United Nations following the expiration of the 1917 Balfour Declaration. US President Harry Truman was the first head of state to formally recognize Israel as the legitimate Jewish state in 1948. Truman did express misgivings, however.

America’s credibility in backing a righteous path has been damaged by our own expeditionary zeal in post WWII. The big skeleton in the American closet is that in our history is full of examples of appropriating territory from the Native Americans and our appalling treatment of them. Plainly, they were here first. Settlers pushed them off their land, encouraged by the government, and confined them in ever diminishing remote spaces. The point is that the US can hardly lecture Israel on the way their state was formed. Israel is a technologically advanced nation with many accomplishments to their credit. But, in the political choices made before and after 1948 leading to nationhood, they have set themselves up for this conflict.

In history there are endless examples of conquest and defeat. Lands are taken by invading armies, people die and the social order tipped over. Over time, conquerors are eventually conquered themselves, people die and yield to new military and political forces. Borders and power shift, people die and settle for a time, but eventually a new order arrives, people die and things shift again. This has been seen in history all over the world and it will continue to happen. The Palestinians have lost their homeland and might just have to live with it as so many others have done in the last 10,000 years. Perhaps one day what is left of the Native Americans population will reclaim North America after some kind of large-scale apocalypse wipes out the colonist population.

It is difficult to see how Israel and the Palestinians can come to some sort of armistice without Israel surrendering some land and the Palestinians committing to less than full repossession of the land.

Taking the cosmic viewpoint, the human inhabitants of Earth are wrecking the biosphere, raising the temperature of the atmosphere, altering the climate, and while all of this is happening, murdering each other over beliefs and notions. Normally I might have said “let ’em go at it”. But we’re all on the same small speck of dust in empty space. There is nowhere else to go.

A Bottomless Pit of Awful

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Note: I’m having a difficult time not posting on the many ways I’m sickened by you-know-who. This is one more but is blessedly short.

To my great chagrin, there are tens of millions of US citizens who can look at the photo below and not sicken at the patronizing spectacle of a former real estate mogul turned reality TV showman’s hamming it up with a clownish embrace of the flag and laying on a fully puckered kiss for good measure. The guy is a one-man traveling burlesque show. This picture is part of his brand.

#45 Smoochin’ Old Glory.

This is a pose cynically staged to appeal to the many citizens who cannot recognize a charlatan when he is standing in front of them. It is an exaggerated and garish display of idolatry posing as patriotism. Patriotism is many things but not this.

Gloom on the AM Band

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For a few months I have been avoiding my normal radio listening habits. I have been an NPR news listener from the late 1970’s until very recently. It isn’t NPR itself that I’m avoiding but the news. I still think NPR is a first-rate operation. Everywhere the news has become all-election all-Trump all-the-time and it turns my stomach.

This morning I grew tired of listening to the song of the open road so I switched away from FM and entered a place I never go- the AM radio band. I stopped on several talk radio and religious stations. There were a few gravel-throated guys yammering non-stop about sports minutiae or some anti-liberal diatribe. One station featured an author who was interviewed by the preacher-man host. The guest had written a book about -as always- the collapse of American values and the negative role of liberal progressivism from the evangelical Christian point of view. This is the doom and devilry so beloved by evangelicals. The idea that they are being oppressed for their faith gets their Christian soldier juices flowing and the preachers know it. The threat of the Jesus team hanging on by a thread unifies the flock and gives them the vigor to continue accelerating the second coming of Christ through Christian Zionism, book banning, prayer in school, reproductive issues and running the government by “biblical law”.

In particular the guest spoke of Marxism in America and how liberal/progressives are, among other things, forcing gay and transgender permissiveness down the throats of good citizens and school districts across the country. The emphasis, they claim, is not on teaching tolerance but on outright conversion of innocent children to a trans lifestyle.

A new day for an old scare tactic. Source.

In the mid 19th century in Germany, Marx and Engles contended that there was a practical materialistic conflict between capitalists (bourgeoisie) and the workers (proletariat). According to Vladimir Lenin–

“the principal content of Marxism” was “Marx’s economic doctrine. “Marx demonstrated how the capitalist bourgeoisie and their economists were promoting what he saw as the lie that “the interests of the capitalist and of the worker are … one and the same.” He believed that they did this by purporting the concept that “the fastest possible growth of productive capital” was best for wealthy capitalists and workers because it provided them with employment. Source: Wikipedia.

The radio author’s Marxism angle included the demise of individualism which he claimed to be a goal of the alleged Marxist liberals. This was contrasted with the Declaration of Independence and its emphasis on the rights of the individual. Raising the specter of Marxism in America and misusing the meaning of it is useful rhetorical leverage for his argument to an audience slow to fact check.

While there is no definitive Marxist theory, conservative evangelicals like the author on the radio like to use the word Marxism as a dog whistle to frighten the masses of the poorly informed.

Marxism is the theoretical underpinning of communism and socialism. Some of it seems to make sense as a critique of capitalism. You know, capitalism is great if you have capital. But, the application of Marxism to revolution and government takeover is always performed by flawed human beings who usually resort to totalitarianism. It has yet to be demonstrated that it can be humanely to the application of governance.

Marxism was about fair treatment of workers. Lenin took it way beyond that to governance as well. We all know how that turned out.

Marxism is a social, economic and political philosophy that analyses the impact of the ruling class on the laborers, leading to uneven distribution of wealth and privileges in the society. It stimulates the workers to protest the injustice. Source: The Economic Times.

Socialism is characterized by community ownership or regulation of the means of production, distribution and exchange. Source: Google.

Communism is a subset of socialism that seeks to socialize both production and consumption for economic equality. It is both a form of government and an economic system. Private ownership is not allowed. Source: Google.

The American side of the cold war in the middle of the 20th century was based on dread fear of communism, Soviet socialism or Marxism-Leninism spreading around the world in domino fashion. The Soviets had their own fear-mongering propaganda on the evils of capitalism and American nuclear strike capability. Americans noticed with alarm the trend starting from the Bolshevik revolution to Stalin’s land grab after WWII, to the communist takeover of China, Cuba and North Korea.

A Chinese poster showing Marx, Engles, Lenin, Stalin and Mao Zedong. Source: The Diplomat.

The communists eventually prevailed in Viet Nam as we all know. The cold war motivated each side into an ever-increasing arms buildup and a few ill-advised military actions on foreign soil. It also gave birth to many successive generations of increasingly deadly weapons systems and advances in aerospace technology to bring the battle to the enemy.

It could be said that both the West and the USSR were guilty of pumping up irrational fear of the other side. Both sides took advantage of the strategic tensions by advancing their own technological prowess in weaponry, aerospace and nuclear weapons design. Both sides had (and have) a government-military-industrial complex that consumes vast amounts of funds.

If necessity is the mother of invention, then war is a mother.

Both sides had political movements that they benefitted and suffered from in their respective arms buildups and political polarization. But that is not to say that they were equivalent in their morality status.

People have struggled to immigrate to the US and Europe for a long time. In the USSR, people struggled to get out. People made their choice and the USSR wasn’t the place to go.

In America, many began to imagine that the Soviets were ten feet tall and made of steel based on their rapid development of both fission and fusion weapons, the massive size of the Warsaw Pact forces as well as their notable firsts in space exploration. But in the end, it wasn’t sustainable. The USSR trotted out for all to see the one thing they were good at and that was its military forces. In the end, the USSR governmental apparatus was rotten to the core and collapsed in on itself. The USSR cracked open spilling out solitary states, including Russia which struggled in a whirlpool of giddiness followed quickly by discontent over 10 years. A few Russians became fabulously wealthy oligarchs. But a market economy was not to be and general dismay with Yeltsin and government support gave a player like Putin the chance to bubble up from the KGB and eventually succeed Yeltsin.

It could be that I’m just ignorant. But I am unaware of a burgeoning Marxist/communist/socialist movement in the US that the GOP refers to. Where are these Marxists and their ideological children the socialists and the communists? Like everywhere else, the US is comprised of a statistical distribution of individuals in its population representing a roughly bell-shaped spectrum of beliefs. I’ve no doubt that there are a few actual Marxists and communists scampering about in America, but seriously, is it a movement?

Trump and others have seized upon the epithets “Marxism, communism and socialism” in their rhetoric along with “immigrants who murder, rob, rape and terrorize” the good citizens of the US. This dark variety of persuasion has been used with success probably as far back as humans have had language. Fear of uncertainty and of “others” is a fundamental human weakness and will live on.

Marxism-Leninism collapsed with the USSR on 26 December, 1991. Communist China remains a unitary communist state, but they have morphed into a controlled capitalistic economy. Viet Nam is a one-party socialist republic that is a popular with tourists. North Korea remains a backwards and closed totalitarian state. Cuba, according to Wikipedia, is a Unitary Marxist–Leninist one-party, semi-presidential socialist republic.

What kind of fool would propose to convert to a state based on Marxism today? Where is the successful example from history that you could point to? Or communism or just socialism. All of these “-isms” have any number of variants.

The US has long operated state-run organizations like fire departments, police departments, street maintenance, postal service, social security, the military, the US mint, water and sewer utilities, and more very successfully. It seems to work pretty well, overall.

Despite what you may hear, a great many things in the USA do work very well or well enough. Don’t let perfect be the enemy of the good. I don’t see anything so bad that it is worth dumping democracy for the totalitarian pipe dream of the Neo-Republicans or some despicable clown like Trump.