Category Archives: Current Events

Texas Abortion Case

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As of this date, the Texas Supreme Court has blocked a lower court decision by Travis County District Judge Maya Guerra Gamble that a Texas woman may obtain an abortion. Within hours the Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton sent letters to 3 area hospitals saying the temporary order would “not insulate hospitals, doctors, or anyone else, from civil and criminal liability for violating Texas’ abortion laws.”

The woman is currently in another state where her condition does allow for a legal abortion.

Apart from the usual hairball of arguments about abortion itself, I’m flabbergasted at the apparent absence of medical input relating to this law. Why isn’t there a medical board of OB/GYN specialists who have some authority in this? Were obstetrics medical school faculty consulted in the drafting of this law? Was the religious conservative pressure so great that OB/GYN best practices were just disregarded? Looks like an absolutist approach was taken and exceptions could be finely scrutinized with a bias towards “no.”

Is there a religious conservative in Texas who knows what an ectopic pregnancy is or any other dangerous medical condition? Pregnancy is a hazardous business and much can and does go wrong taking the life of one or both the infant and mother. Apparently in Texas, dying in childbirth is acceptable because it is God’s will and the rest of us have to respect the wishes of Republican believers.

Perhaps the Texas AG, Mr. Paxton, has the habit of denying/prosecuting abortions across the board and letting the matter go to the Supreme Court for a decision. This keeps him free of criticism from the anti-abortion mega-church preachers in Texas.

The whole thing stinks of ignorance and religious disregard for medical reality. The Texas state motto should be- “Frequently wrong, but never in doubt.”

Anti-Science or Pseudoscience Trend in India?

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The political party of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). This party won the 2014 general elections by a landslide, and again in 2019. Since then the BJP has reportedly aligned with the RSS, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, a paramilitary right-wing group. Modi has been accused of leading the country into what has been called a “Hindu religious autocracy.” The process of implementing a Hindu Nationalist agenda has been given the colorful name “saffronization.” No small part of it is the de-westernization of India.

Indian history and politics is very rich but unfamiliar to most westerners so I can’t go into detail other than to say that there is a strong Hindu Nationalism movement there. A level of rejection of Eurocentric values is to be expected given the history of British rule in the 20th century. India is a nuclear, space-faring nation today with much to be optimistic about.

Recently, Darwin’s theory of evolution has been removed from textbooks in 9th and 10th grade biology. The fear is that most students do not take biology later in their school years and therefore will have no understanding of this important aspect of biology. The decision to drop evolution from the 9th and 10th grade biology textbooks was a “content rationalization” made by a government organization called National Council of Educational Research and Training (NCERT). NCERT claims that they dropped discussion of evolution during the COVID-19 pandemic in order to streamline online classes. India currently has 256 million primary and secondary students.

This has resulted in an uproar by Indian academics, including artists, writers, historians and scientists. The notion held by most scientists and mathematicians around the world is that physical and biological science is secular, i.e. it should not contain cultural, historical or racial structural elements imposing subjectivity in modeling the physical world.

America’s Upcoming Self-Immolation

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The reader should know that I would much prefer to write about sciency topics like chemistry or mining geochemistry. But I have become aware of a political tsunami that could arrive at our shores in 2025. It is a planned sequence of actions aiming to convert our American civilization, its economy and politics so drastically as to be unrecognizable by the standards of today. It is breathtaking in its sweep and amounts to nothing less than a sociopolitical revolution. I refer to “Project 2025” organized by the Heritage Foundation. Short of a mainland invasion of North America, I am hard pressed to think of something that will so drastically alter the course of American civilization. Republicans are seeking to emplace a permanent conservative state. My view is this- screw ’em.

At present, the US is the global hegemon and has been one since WWII. Many nations resent this, especially China and Russia, and seek to become the major hegemonies themselves. They strongly desire to knock the US off the sandpile and take up residence for themselves. Trump’s America First policy would allow Russia and China to step up as US foreign influence is purposely relaxed. As the unity of the US/EU and NATO collapses, Russia’s influence in Eastern Europe will rise as they move forward to the reestablishment of a Soviet-scale state. China’s dominance along the South China Sea, Southeast Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Malasia and Australia will grow, as they intend it to.

The expansion of Chinese and Russian influence will come as a result of the loss of global US influence. As technology and the quality of life expands across the world, US hegemony will necessarily diminish somewhat. What we can and should hold onto is our standing as an influential and thriving democracy.

To my many friends, colleagues and readers, all I can say is that now is not the time to shrink back into your shells and wait out the 2024 political season in the US. If your visual acuity takes you past your nose you will see that Project 2025 will strongly alter the function of the federal government. This is a step towards a dictatorial architecture that will directly affect our lives and our standing in the world.

Hyperbole? Visit the link and think it through for yourself.

Project 2025 is nothing less than a coherent plan to deconstruct the administrative function of the federal government, especially under the executive branch. The many designers of this project believe in the so-called “deep state” which, they say, is firmly nested in the ponderous federal bureaucracy. As a story it has the necessary elements of a conspiracy novel. There are protagonists, antagonists, narrators and enough historical detail to make their storyline convincing. In my view, the deep state exists in the form of dark money and the subsequent influence over politicians, mostly the recipients of big conservative money.

The US media will be of little help here and will relegate themselves to documenting the downfall for the infotainment of everyone around the world. Decades hence, dissertations and documentaries will be produced attempting to explain the collapse to authoritarianism to puzzled citizens.

But Project 2025 is more than just a rejiggering of the administrative apparatus of the federal government. Significantly, it aims to intensify the many powers of the federal bureaucracy directly into the hands of the president by aligning the federal workforce job security to be politically accountable to the president.

It represents a transition from a primary emphasis on expertise to that of political reliability for one’s career-sake. The plan will go into effect the first day of the next Republican president’s administration, be it Trump or otherwise. This is what the plan states in clear English.

In our federal government, laws are passed and placed into the Unites States Code, USC. This content is then translated into the Code of Federal Regulations, CFR, for promulgation. The CFR is a structure of regulations based on the USC for practical application and enforcement.

It is easy and quite lazy to claim that the US federal government is completely broken. It seems to be hypersensitive in some areas and intractably slow elsewhere. Nonetheless, much of it functions like it should behind the curtains. Do we really want a government that is incontestably and quickly responsive to the whims of a president? Or should there be checks and balances built into the system? Handing over more power to a morally bankrupt person like Trump is grossly irresponsible, stupid and may not be reversable. Other than a foreign invasion, this could not be more serious.

Shock and Awe Law Enforcement

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The difficulties black citizens encounter with law enforcement are numerous and many have been severe. More than a few end up dead from a police encounter. Everybody has seen this in the news. I am not a legal scholar and have no official experience in law enforcement. I know only what I have observed.

What I have observed on video are episodes of escalating tension followed by a step change to violence over the course of an individual’s encounter with the police. A traffic stop results in a request for the driver’s documents. Sometimes the driver is reluctant to hand them over for some particular reason. The driver could have trouble with authority figures generally or is angered by the tone with which he is being spoken to. The driver could be frightened and given to poor judgement. Or, the driver could be wanted for some warrant or crime and is unwilling to be apprehended.

The driver could be perfectly innocent of crimes and just speeding a bit or could be carrying contraband in the vehicle. The officer is likely to be unsure of who they have stopped or may have found a vehicle they have been looking for. Officers need to be extremely careful in all interactions with the public.

What seems to happen in many of these violent encounters with police is that the officer repeatedly tries to get information from the citizen and something snaps. Either the officer loses patience or the citizen gets combative or both. Whatever the case, the officer at some point feels threatened and wants to restrain the citizen according to procedure. The citizen, not comprehending why this is happening and fearing the worst, resists following the directions of the officer. The officer notices the resistance and ratchets up the intensity. This is where things can go south.

At some point the officer may call in for other officers to help with the situation. Whether alone or with several officers present, an officer will repeatedly demand instant obedience. If there is not prompt obedience, the officer may escalate and draw and point a stun gun or service pistol at the citizen. If the citizen is agitated and out of control or threatens the officer, they might be subject to a stun or worse.

If the officer attempts to forcibly remove the citizen from the car, a struggle may ensue. In videos broadcast to the public, the officer remains with the citizen struggling for control, shouting instructions at the citizen. By this time the citizen is likely in a state of panic or anger and is irrational. The citizen could lash out violently or attempt to escape. Prompt and absolute yielding to force and shouting isn’t necessarily natural to the citizen.

It seems to be in the nature of police training that once a non-compliant citizen has been encountered, the police will not stop until they apprehend them. This approach can escalate to physical harm or the death of the suspect or the officer. Also evident, the method police use is what I can only refer to as a “shock and awe” approach. It is meant to confuse and overwhelm the suspect with police power and authority. The problem is that it doesn’t always work. As the suspect continues to struggle the officer(s) may begin to fear for injury or death. Or, the officer(s) may become unable to contain their rage. Whatever the case, a service pistol may be drawn and discharged. Pardon my ignorance, but it has never appeared to me that the police shoot to wound or disable- only to kill.

It appears that the requirement perceived by the officer is that once they have a suspect in hand they may apply whatever it takes, even as much as shooting, if they are unable to control the suspect in a reasonable time.

We have to ask, is an apprehension technique that relies on arresting officers to overwhelm and outwrestle the citizen the only technique available? Officers do not start with this shock and awe. They ask for license, registration and proof of insurance first. During that time the citizen has time to think about how he or she will react to the situation.

What happens in other countries?

Plainly, a law enforcement agency will not interact in a way that would let the citizen escape if things became difficult. In principle, the law must always prevail lest it be known that all you have to do is struggle and you can get away. This seems reasonable, except that the officer may end up the judge, jury and executioner. Should a suspect die from a kill shot delivered by the arresting officer if the officer is just out of patience? Or if the suspect is physically too powerful? Is it ever OK for the officer to relent and let the citizen escape into the wind?

How can we educate people to avoid escalating an encounter with a police officer before the point where the officer pulls their gun? Either the citizen or the officer or both can suffer from hot headedness. But in the exchange between you and the police officer, the law will always get the upper hand eventually.

The police have a responsibility to use good judgement and the training to execute their duties. But I’d say that when citizens are stopped by the police, they must realize that they are in a situation where things could go irreversibly for them if they make some poor choices. That means knowing when to stop arguing and yield to the officer(s). If the officer has engaged you in a traffic situation, they have already called in your plates for warrants and other information. If a polite exchange of information has not convinced the officer to let you be on your way, then further haggling is likely to go badly for you. At this point, you’ve already lost the game and should relent.

The reason behind this essay is to explore the idea of shock and awe as an apprehension method. How often does it work? What do criminologists say about it?

Obviously, asking citizens to behave better is not an easy strategy. But physical actions by the police that confuse and frighten the citizen puts them on alert and may trigger a violent reply. Does any agency or other organization try to have a discussion with the public about this?

It’s not all about heavy handed officers out there. Citizens must learn that there are poor choices that will ruin or end their lives and that there may well be a time for submission. Due process still exists.

Hamas-Israel War Update

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The news media are devoting virtually all of their bandwidth to the savage Hamas-Israeli sh*t storm in Gaza and especially on the status of the Israeli hostages. After some digging, it is possible to learn that many Islamic militia groups in the region have been attempting to strike at Israel from far outside of the Israeli border. This is being coordinated by Iran.

Iran Update, November 26, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

The thing that I’m learning is that the historical facts aren’t so hard to understand, it’s just a large hairball of intertwined details. The emotional depths, however, are deep and abiding. It long ago morphed into a battle between certain Islamic fundamentalists and the “invaders”. The momentum to begin the State of Israel began well before 1948. The formation and settlement of Israel, Zionism, was a planned movement to first colonize the area of present-day Israel and gradually push out the residing Palestinian Arabs. There are early references to the settlement of European Jews of the First Aliyah between 1881 and 1903 to Ottoman Syria. These people were traditional Jews not necessarily interested in Zionism. It’s important to note that Zionism and Judaism are not equivalent.

According to Wikipedia, the Zionist movement is thought to have originated with Theodor Hertzl in 1897. Even before, there were Jewish villages established in Palestine, ibid. He was an Austro-Hungarian journalist and Jew who promoted immigration to Palestine for the purpose of establishing a homeland. The link gives some good background.

The formal establishment of the Israeli state from the Israeli side is well documented and is left for the reader to access. Palestinians refer to this as the Nakba, or “catastrophe”.

It seems well documented that the establishment of the state of Israel was a systematic movement to form a Jewish homeland- Zionism. This process inevitably involved the forced displacement of Palestinian Arabs from what was greater Palestine and into smaller reservations for the displaced- Gaza and the West Bank. The West Bank is being slowly but vigorously absorbed by Israeli settlers.

It will be impossible for the Palestinians to just roll over and forgive and forget. Much has to heal. Gaza has been called an apartheid concentration camp to contain and control the Palestinians and I cannot see why this is an exaggeration. The brutal Israeli reprisal on Hamas and civilian Gazans after the October 7th attack by Hamas will extend the conflict. This is driven by the Netanyahu political movement.

How can I, an American with no interest in any of the Abrahamic religions possibly know about this? Hey man, I’m tryin’. Obviously this thing has to settle down and casualties on both sides stop, just nobody knows how to make it happen. The incessant and violent meddling by Iran is inflammatory and has to be suppressed. Their interest is in sowing chaos is unrelenting and dangerous.

The state of Israel will not shut down for any reason and leave the Levant. They are there for good. To Islamic extremists, this means that all they can do is kill all of the Israelis and share the misery. It’s like two guys standing in gasoline and each threatening to light a match. This will take some realpolitik over decades on both sides to solve. Pure ideology will lead nowhere.

Unwavering American government allegiance to the state of Israel, in public at least, and the influence of AIPAC must be pushed aside to provide effective, balanced and trusted leadership in the region. Many US states have already passed laws banning the criticism of Israel or its businesses. This type of statutory tribalism is not helpful and must stop. Reflexive opposition to the Palestinians leads only to the next 100 year’s war.

Biased US leadership in the Middle East only fuels continuous conflict and strengthens the proxy war of Iran against the US. Our steadfast bias should be for a negotiated peace. There is substantial support for Israel by American Evangelical Protestant Christian nationalists whose religious beliefs require strong support for the state of Israel. It is a part of their Calvinistic dominionism theology and the return of the Messiah. This is the third leg of a serious religious conflict. Israelis understand this interference by the pesky Christian chicken coop across the Atlantic, but they need the eggs.

MAGA Movement as a Peasant Uprising

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Back in graduate school we had a postdoc in the group who was a chemistry professor on a 1-year sabbatical from the Beijing Normal School in China. He was a great guy, but like most professors, a bit rusty in the lab. One day a few of us were exchanging our respective backgrounds. When my turn came around I mentioned that as a child I grew up on an Iowa farm where we raised the usual spectrum of crops and livestock- Corn, soybeans, hogs, cattle, sheep, a couple of horses and 5 kids. He looked at me for a moment and then said with a grin “Ah, peasant!”

I was startled for a moment because I had never considered this description before. I had always thought of peasant as mildly derisive, but as I thought about it, he was exactly right. Our income was low and we subsisted on what we could grow and sell. We always had home grown beef and pork in the meat locker in town and apples, walnuts and canned veggies in the cellar. Summer evenings we would go to the lake, eat fresh watermelon while swatting the mosquitos and do a bit of fishing for bullheads. It was ordinary rural life like millions of others had. I was a young peasant boy.

Well, so what? As I watch Trump’s festering MAGA movement infect its way across the US and begin to spread and flex its muscles, I’ve been looking for the right words to describe it. For me, finding the right words for something has always been at the entrance to the path of understanding. Last night I finally found the right description- Peasant Uprising.

The electronic media tends to focus on MAGA people wearing their uber-patriotic apparel. My inner snark keeps whispering that they may not be on the higher end of the bell curve as far as smarts go. Many are attracted to QAnon and its bulging pantry of wacky conspiracy theories. It is easy to be lazy and make sweeping generalizations about idiocy, ignorance or stupidity. To be sure, there are highly educated people who are also aligned with Trump’s MAGA handwaving. Some may actually believe the conspiracy theories but others are just surfing the populist wave.

Throughout European history there are instances of peasant folk, serfs and artisans rallying together to put an end to the rigid control of landlords and upper echelons of society that keep them in poverty. Violence would often erupt and the rebellion would be put down or some compromise would arise. It didn’t always end well for the peasant class.

1573 Peasant Revolt reenactment in Croatia. A contemporary revolt in the US wouldn’t be as squalid and it will be televised unlike those of centuries past. Hacking and stabbing wounds will be replaced with gunshot wounds. January 6 was a prelude.

I’m not suggesting that what has evolved in the US since WWII is the same. But what has happened in the US is that the opportunity to accumulate wealth today remains out of reach for a large fraction of citizens. Tens of millions of citizens are living paycheck to paycheck with debt piled high, assuming they could get the credit to get that way. Inflation has pushed up prices across the board irrespective of whether or not business expenses actually rose in proportion to the inflation rate. An inflationary period is a great opportunity to raise prices because customers will go along with it. Prices are always what the customer is willing to pay.

What I am suggesting is that there is a large fraction of the population in the US who have been passed by as ever advancing technology is improving our way of life. This has created previously unheard-of job opportunities but only for those with the right education. Organizations have required 4-year degrees or 2-5 years of experience in the field. A degree may or may not have educated the applicant in the particular field, but it does provide a credible credential that an applicant can start a challenging task and complete it over set timespan. I would say that this credential is nearly as important as the knowledge gained in college in judging the fortitude and character of an applicant. Obviously there are exceptions.

Many people find themselves stranded in modernity without sufficiently strong credentials to advance with the times. Anyone over 25 might face the prospect of enrolling in college to get the right credentials for a new profession or just to advance. This is difficult for most people to pull off. Children and debt can totally shut down this option for them. My guess is that a great many of Trump’s MAGA followers fit this description. Thus the comparison with a peasant uprising.

The MAGA movement may remain mostly bloodless or not. They represent a large group of angry and dissatisfied people who have an extremely varied level of understanding of civics. Many hold unfounded beliefs that are nothing more than boat anchors holding them back.

Libertarian utopianism suggests that everyone has the option of starting their own business. Some can do this, but most will find themselves under-capitalized and with no properly zoned facility in which to work. Yes, some people do get by making burritos and cupcakes in their kitchens or doing handyman work. But the market is limited for these services. The reality of rent/mortgages and health insurance make the cash flow requirements difficult to meet.

As a former peasant boy, this is what I’m observing.

Panama Canal is a Pinch Point for US Energy Shipments

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The continuing drought in Panama has caused the Panama Canal Authority to restrict traffic to smaller and smaller vessels. The critical variable is the draft of the ship. The water in Gatun Lake which feeds the locks is getting shallower with the drought. Traffic is down to 60 % of capacity at present and is expected to drop to 45 % by early next year.

The most affected US traffic are those going between the Gulf of Mexico and Asia-Pacific ports. This has also intensified the bidding war for smaller tankers able to make the Panama Canal transit, increasing transportation rates and lengthening shipping times.

Some companies are opting to send their ships through the more expensive Suez Canal. This adds 10 days to a voyage in some cases.

This transportation bottleneck is also negatively affecting US liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas liquids (NGL). According to the US Energy Information Agency (USEIA), Asia accounts for 53.8 % of US gas liquids shipments abroad this year at 2.6 million barrels per day. Compounding the problem, vessels carrying gas liquids have lower priority than larger vessels paying larger tolls. Ships can bid to cut in line but the prices are steep, up to $2.5 million for an LNG tanker and $100k to $500k for medium sized tankers.

Breaking the Spell of Apocalyptic Politics

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Former president #45 has proclaimed on his Truth Social post of 11/18/23 that 2024 will be” the final battle.” Below is a quote from him while in Iowa-

“2024 is our final battle. With you at my side, we will demolish the Deep State, we will expel the warmongers from our government, we will drive out the globalists, we will cast out the Communists, Marxists, and Fascists, we will throw off the sick political class that hates our Country, we will rout the Fake News Media, we will evict Joe Biden from the White House, and we will FINISH THE JOB ONCE AND FOR ALL! ia.donaldjtrump.com/,” Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social on Saturday.

Many questions come to mind. Who is this political class that hates America? He continues to infer that liberals hate America, but where are these people? The people who hate the US are mostly elsewhere in the world.

What about his claim that he will cast out the Communists, Marxists and Fascists. Communism is practiced by China in some despotic form, but most of the world is free from the threat of communism. Marxism? Oh please. C’mon Donald, name 5 American Marxists. Marxism is long dead. The Soviets abandoned it and communism when the USSR collapsed in the early 1990’s. And fascism? Does he understand what fascism is? It doesn’t sound like it. Fascism is ultranationalism and who arms themselves to the teeth and parades around draped in the stars & stripes or the Confederate battle flag? It ain’t liberals.

The “Fake News Media”? #45 should be nicer to these people. They’ve given him half a billion dollars in free publicity since 2016. It’s helped the Democrats somewhat, but the media has been quite uncritical in their decisions on televising his rolling freakshow. His bombastic bellowing and verbal assaults make him a sure bet for good viewer numbers. He is a completely noxious human being but that makes him worth televising for ratings. The continuous reporting of his words and actions simply validates to his followers that he’s the right man to make Washington, DC, work right.

Many American conservatives are under the spell of #45 and are probably irretrievable. These people will have to live out their natural lives and go to the grave as Trump supporters. If you listen to them they are cock sure that Trump speaks the truth. But the fact is that the Republican party gets the most donations and most support from the people who have the money. And, right now that money is funneling into groups that support Trump because he has the numbers.

What doesn’t help America is that most of the fundamentalist, protestant Christian nationalists in the US can support Trump for religious reasons. They believe that somehow, despite his worldly troubles, he is the one who will spur on the prophesied return of Christ- the Second Coming. They believe that “the apocalypse” will happen in Israel and soon. Christian nationalists are eager to support Israel for reasons like this. Their end-of-the-world theology involves support for Israel.

The problem with Christian nationalism is that it stems from an apocalyptic religion. Why should anyone entrust them to govern America when they believe that the end is near? I’ve been watching this develop since the late 1970’s and especially into the 1980’s during the Reagan years and the rise of the Moral Majority. It was a chimera of orthodox Republicanism and protestant conservative evangelical organizations. The Southern Baptist Convention, in particular. This is a political force having its way in America presently. They are eating the elephant one bite at a time.

For myself, the fundamental theorem of Americanism is democracy, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Conservatives are beginning to discount the practice of democracy because they find it does not seem to provide a path to their utopian vision for America. Democracy is messy and allows for a broad spectrum of ideas and practices. A theocratic and libertarian world is a place where the control of civilization and power belongs to the wealthy and righteous. It is theocratic and controlled by a few. This is a regression to the closing decades of the American 19th century when industrial barons held sway.

In conclusion, this Republican Christian nationalism must be defeated or encouraged to die on the vine. Christianity or any other religion are not about democracy. The Republican party is showing little interest in democracy. They have learned that they cannot have their way just through elections. They are at work chipping away at our democratic institutions. Democracy must be preserved. The airwaves, churches and congress are full of doomsayers claiming that America is in a crisis and that only conservative Christian values can make it better. The spell of apocalyptic politics must be broken.

One Secular Humanist View of the Hamas-Israeli War

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The current Israeli-Hamas conflict is difficult to fully appreciate. Being a secular humanist who speaks a different language in the middle of a distant continent, I’ll never get the full import of the situation in all of its confusion and misery. Like most others, I’m left with interpreting this hairball of violence secondhand from what I can read and view on video. My only personal connection is an Israeli colleague in Haifa who I am worried about. He is not a fan of Netanyahu at all. That whole political mess has been put aside for a while.

We westerners have recoiled from the abhorrent, murderous Hamas attack on October 7th. Such savage acts are beyond comprehension but are far from unprecedented in the world. The case for better treatment and a homeland for the Palestinians was set back years by the action of Hamas.

According to the Times of Israel Netanyahu has supported Hamas with funds over the years with an eye on the long-term strategy of driving a wedge between Gaza and Hezbollah in the West Bank. How will he survive this?

The Times of Israel said that the Israeli military strategy is to destroy all of Hamas’ tunnels. The entrances to these tunnels are quite frequently in buildings and homes of noncombatant Gazans. One report shows the entrance to a tunnel below the floorboards in a child’s bedroom. This Hamas strategy seems to take advantage whatever lingering reluctance there may be of the IDF to bomb civilians. Innocent Palestinian casualties only works against Israel.

The US and Coalition forces ran into this blending-in with noncombatants in Afghanistan and Iraq. The French resistance in WWII and Viet Cong did this as well. It is a useful strategy for under-resourced forces. Hide in plain sight. At least there is the element of surprise working for them. But it only works if the attackers desire to avoid civilian casualties. Israel is on an aggressive war footing and concern for civilians is not at the top of the list.

While Hamas planned and executed a horrific act of mass-murder, the Israeli response of aggressively rooting out and killing every last Hamas member in Gaza continues to result in mass casualties of the general population. Evidently, there is little in Gaza that is immune from bombing. Hamas can huddle in their tunnels or blend into the civilian population. It’s a bug hunt. Hamas must have been fully aware that something like this would happen, yet they mass-murdered anyway. Was it part of a grand strategy or just an improved act of bloodlust?

The US and allies invaded and occupied Afghanistan and Iraq soon after the 9/11 attack in the US. Whatever good we might have done was temporary and must be measured against the unanticipated consequences of an extended insurgency and urban warfare. Hundreds of thousands of civilians died in these actions. To the Afghans and Iraqis, we were simply heathen invaders marauding through their countries, unwanted and despised, destroying their culture and economies. It was yet the latest imposition of westerners on their lands. Most Iraqis were grateful to see Saddam Hussein thrown out of power, but the insurgencies that followed quickly turned into deadly and prolonged urban warfare. Suicide bombing is alien to the western mind. These are smart bombs with blood and guts.

The October 7th attack was started by Hamas who claims to oppose Zionism but not Judaism. Hamas claims to represent the Palestinians. But Hamas is an arm of Islam by their very own charter. What it cannot devolve into is Judaism versus Islam, though I suspect that has been a fraction of it for a long time.

All that remains to be done by outsiders is to continue to persuade Israel to back off on civilian casualties and for them to plan for the state of post-war Gaza. The Gaza strip will be materially and psychologically devastated and the population has been in great need of assistance since this started. Any previous good-will of the Palestinians towards Israel will have vanished and be replaced with rage. The Levant will be a be an open sore for decades to come.

Global Oil Refining Capacity Growth to Taper Off Soon

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According to the International Energy Agency, IEA, the current wave of oil refining capacity growth is likely to be the last of it. IEA is forecasting that beyond 2030 global refining capacity growth will begin to recede. The latest World Outlook Report forecasts that global capacity will see 105.2 million b/d and by 2050 growth be tapering off to 105.8 million b/d. This is from 102.7 million b/d in 2022.

Remember, this is receding growth overall, not receding consumption overall. IEA expects North America to see reducing refinery capacity on the order of 1.4 % between 2022 and 2030. To meet emission reduction goals, North American capacity will have to reduce by 7.5 % from 2022 to 2030. By contrast, under current policies India is expected to see an increase in refining capacity from 7.2 to 7.5 milling b/d by 2050.

The Age of Petroleum is approaching a production plateau as the oxidation of hydrocarbons gives way to harnessing the reduction potential of metallic lithium. Oh, what a time we’ll have! Think of all of the new failure modes we’ll discover.

On top of all of the current challenges to fire departments, there is a new one. Source: Battery Fires.