Category Archives: Current Events

MAGA Movement as a Peasant Uprising

Back in graduate school we had a postdoc in the group who was a chemistry professor on a 1-year sabbatical from the Beijing Normal School in China. He was a great guy, but like most professors, a bit rusty in the lab. One day a few of us were exchanging our respective backgrounds. When my turn came around I mentioned that as a child I grew up on an Iowa farm where we raised the usual spectrum of crops and livestock- Corn, soybeans, hogs, cattle, sheep, a couple of horses and 5 kids. He looked at me for a moment and then said with a grin “Ah, peasant!”

I was startled for a moment because I had never considered this description before. I had always thought of peasant as mildly derisive, but as I thought about it, he was exactly right. Our income was low and we subsisted on what we could grow and sell. We always had home grown beef and pork in the meat locker in town and apples, walnuts and canned veggies in the cellar. Summer evenings we would go to the lake, eat fresh watermelon while swatting the mosquitos and do a bit of fishing for bullheads. It was ordinary rural life like millions of others had. I was a young peasant boy.

Well, so what? As I watch Trump’s festering MAGA movement infect its way across the US and begin to spread and flex its muscles, I’ve been looking for the right words to describe it. For me, finding the right words for something has always been at the entrance to the path of understanding. Last night I finally found the right description- Peasant Uprising.

The electronic media tends to focus on MAGA people wearing their uber-patriotic apparel. My inner snark keeps whispering that they may not be on the higher end of the bell curve as far as smarts go. Many are attracted to QAnon and its bulging pantry of wacky conspiracy theories. It is easy to be lazy and make sweeping generalizations about idiocy, ignorance or stupidity. To be sure, there are highly educated people who are also aligned with Trump’s MAGA handwaving. Some may actually believe the conspiracy theories but others are just surfing the populist wave.

Throughout European history there are instances of peasant folk, serfs and artisans rallying together to put an end to the rigid control of landlords and upper echelons of society that keep them in poverty. Violence would often erupt and the rebellion would be put down or some compromise would arise. It didn’t always end well for the peasant class.

1573 Peasant Revolt reenactment in Croatia. A contemporary revolt in the US wouldn’t be as squalid and it will be televised unlike those of centuries past. Hacking and stabbing wounds will be replaced with gunshot wounds. January 6 was a prelude.

I’m not suggesting that what has evolved in the US since WWII is the same. But what has happened in the US is that the opportunity to accumulate wealth today remains out of reach for a large fraction of citizens. Tens of millions of citizens are living paycheck to paycheck with debt piled high, assuming they could get the credit to get that way. Inflation has pushed up prices across the board irrespective of whether or not business expenses actually rose in proportion to the inflation rate. An inflationary period is a great opportunity to raise prices because customers will go along with it. Prices are always what the customer is willing to pay.

What I am suggesting is that there is a large fraction of the population in the US who have been passed by as ever advancing technology is improving our way of life. This has created previously unheard-of job opportunities but only for those with the right education. Organizations have required 4-year degrees or 2-5 years of experience in the field. A degree may or may not have educated the applicant in the particular field, but it does provide a credible credential that an applicant can start a challenging task and complete it over set timespan. I would say that this credential is nearly as important as the knowledge gained in college in judging the fortitude and character of an applicant. Obviously there are exceptions.

The MAGA movement may remain mostly bloodless or not. They represent a large group of angry and dissatisfied people who have an extremely varied level of understanding of civics. Many hold unfounded beliefs that are nothing more than boat anchors holding them back.

Libertarian utopianism suggests that everyone has the option of starting their own business. Some can do this, but most will find themselves under-capitalized and with no properly zoned facility in which to work. Yes, some people do get by making burritos and cupcakes in their kitchens or doing handyman work. But the market is limited for these services. The reality of rent/mortgages and health insurance make the cash flow requirements difficult to meet.

As a former peasant boy, this is what I’m observing.

Panama Canal is a Pinch Point for US Energy Shipments

The continuing drought in Panama has caused the Panama Canal Authority to restrict traffic to smaller and smaller vessels. The critical variable is the draft of the ship. The water in Gatun Lake which feeds the locks is getting shallower with the drought. Traffic is down to 60 % of capacity at present and is expected to drop to 45 % by early next year.

The most affected US traffic are those going between the Gulf of Mexico and Asia-Pacific ports. This has also intensified the bidding war for smaller tankers able to make the Panama Canal transit, increasing transportation rates and lengthening shipping times.

Some companies are opting to send their ships through the more expensive Suez Canal. This adds 10 days to a voyage in some cases.

This transportation bottleneck is also negatively affecting US liquified petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas liquids (NGL). According to the US Energy Information Agency (USEIA), Asia accounts for 53.8 % of US gas liquids shipments abroad this year at 2.6 million barrels per day. Compounding the problem, vessels carrying gas liquids have lower priority than larger vessels paying larger tolls. Ships can bid to cut in line but the prices are steep, up to $2.5 million for an LNG tanker and $100k to $500k for medium sized tankers.

Breaking the Spell of Apocalyptic Politics

Former president #45 has proclaimed on his Truth Social post of 11/18/23 that 2024 will be” the final battle.” Below is a quote from him while in Iowa-

Many questions come to mind. Who is this political class that hates America? He continues to infer that liberals hate America, but where are these people? The people who hate the US are mostly elsewhere in the world.

What about his claim that he will cast out the Communists, Marxists and Fascists. Communism is practiced by China in some despotic form, but most of the world is free from the threat of communism. Marxism? Oh please. C’mon Donald, name 5 American Marxists. Marxism is long dead. The Soviets abandoned it and communism when the USSR collapsed in the early 1990’s. And fascism? Does he understand what fascism is? It doesn’t sound like it. Fascism is ultranationalism and who arms themselves to the teeth and parades around draped in the stars & stripes or the Confederate battle flag? It ain’t liberals.

The “Fake News Media”? #45 should be nicer to these people. They’ve given him half a billion dollars in free publicity since 2016. It’s helped the Democrats somewhat, but the media has been quite uncritical in their decisions on televising his rolling freakshow. His bombastic bellowing and verbal assaults make him a sure bet for good viewer numbers. He is a completely noxious human being but that makes him worth televising for ratings. The continuous reporting of his words and actions simply validates to his followers that he’s the right man to make Washington, DC, work right.

Many American conservatives are under the spell of #45 and are probably irretrievable. These people will have to live out their natural lives and go to the grave as Trump supporters. If you listen to them they are cock sure that Trump speaks the truth. But the fact is that the Republican party gets the most donations and most support from the people who have the money. And, right now that money is funneling into groups that support Trump because he has the numbers.

What doesn’t help America is that most of the fundamentalist, protestant Christian nationalists in the US can support Trump for religious reasons. They believe that somehow, despite his worldly troubles, he is the one who will spur on the prophesied return of Christ- the Second Coming. They believe that “the apocalypse” will happen in Israel and soon. Christian nationalists are eager to support Israel for reasons like this. Their end-of-the-world theology involves support for Israel.

The problem with Christian nationalism is that it stems from an apocalyptic religion. Why should anyone entrust them to govern America when they believe that the end is near? I’ve been watching this develop since the late 1970’s and especially into the 1980’s during the Reagan years and the rise of the Moral Majority. It was a chimera of orthodox Republicanism and protestant conservative evangelical organizations. The Southern Baptist Convention, in particular. This is a political force having its way in America presently. They are eating the elephant one bite at a time.

For myself, the fundamental theorem of Americanism is democracy, life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Conservatives are beginning to discount the practice of democracy because they find it does not seem to provide a path to their utopian vision for America. Democracy is messy and allows for a broad spectrum of ideas and practices. A theocratic and libertarian world is a place where the control of civilization and power belongs to the wealthy and righteous. It is theocratic and controlled by a few. This is a regression to the closing decades of the American 19th century when industrial barons held sway.

In conclusion, this Republican Christian nationalism must be defeated or encouraged to die on the vine. Christianity or any other religion are not about democracy. The Republican party is showing little interest in democracy. They have learned that they cannot have their way just through elections. They are at work chipping away at our democratic institutions. Democracy must be preserved. The airwaves, churches and congress are full of doomsayers claiming that America is in a crisis and that only conservative Christian values can make it better. The spell of apocalyptic politics must be broken.

One Secular Humanist View of the Hamas-Israeli War

The current Israeli-Hamas conflict is difficult to fully appreciate. Being a secular humanist who speaks a different language in the middle of a distant continent, I’ll never get the full import of the situation in all of its confusion and misery. Like most others, I’m left with interpreting this hairball of violence secondhand from what I can read and view on video. My only personal connection is an Israeli colleague in Haifa who I am worried about. He is not a fan of Netanyahu at all. That whole political mess has been put aside for a while.

We westerners have recoiled from the abhorrent, murderous Hamas attack on October 7th. Such savage acts are beyond comprehension but are far from unprecedented in the world. The case for better treatment and a homeland for the Palestinians was set back years by the action of Hamas.

According to the Times of Israel Netanyahu has supported Hamas with funds over the years with an eye on the long-term strategy of driving a wedge between Gaza and Hezbollah in the West Bank. How will he survive this?

The Times of Israel said that the Israeli military strategy is to destroy all of Hamas’ tunnels. The entrances to these tunnels are quite frequently in buildings and homes of noncombatant Gazans. One report shows the entrance to a tunnel below the floorboards in a child’s bedroom. This Hamas strategy seems to take advantage whatever lingering reluctance there may be of the IDF to bomb civilians. Innocent Palestinian casualties only works against Israel.

The US and Coalition forces ran into this blending-in with noncombatants in Afghanistan and Iraq. The French resistance in WWII and Viet Cong did this as well. It is a useful strategy for under-resourced forces. Hide in plain sight. At least there is the element of surprise working for them. But it only works if the attackers desire to avoid civilian casualties. Israel is on an aggressive war footing and concern for civilians is not at the top of the list.

While Hamas planned and executed a horrific act of mass-murder, the Israeli response of aggressively rooting out and killing every last Hamas member in Gaza continues to result in mass casualties of the general population. Evidently, there is little in Gaza that is immune from bombing. Hamas can huddle in their tunnels or blend into the civilian population. It’s a bug hunt. Hamas must have been fully aware that something like this would happen, yet they mass-murdered anyway. Was it part of a grand strategy or just an improved act of bloodlust?

The US and allies invaded and occupied Afghanistan and Iraq soon after the 9/11 attack in the US. Whatever good we might have done was temporary and must be measured against the unanticipated consequences of an extended insurgency and urban warfare. Hundreds of thousands of civilians died in these actions. To the Afghans and Iraqis, we were simply heathen invaders marauding through their countries, unwanted and despised, destroying their culture and economies. It was yet the latest imposition of westerners on their lands. Most Iraqis were grateful to see Saddam Hussein thrown out of power, but the insurgencies that followed quickly turned into deadly and prolonged urban warfare. Suicide bombing is alien to the western mind. These are smart bombs with blood and guts.

The October 7th attack was started by Hamas who claims to oppose Zionism but not Judaism. Hamas claims to represent the Palestinians. But Hamas is an arm of Islam by their very own charter. What it cannot devolve into is Judaism versus Islam, though I suspect that has been a fraction of it for a long time.

All that remains to be done by outsiders is to continue to persuade Israel to back off on civilian casualties and for them to plan for the state of post-war Gaza. The Gaza strip will be materially and psychologically devastated and the population has been in great need of assistance since this started. Any previous good-will of the Palestinians towards Israel will have vanished and be replaced with rage. The Levant will be a be an open sore for decades to come.

Global Oil Refining Capacity Growth to Taper Off Soon

According to the International Energy Agency, IEA, the current wave of oil refining capacity growth is likely to be the last of it. IEA is forecasting that beyond 2030 global refining capacity growth will begin to recede. The latest World Outlook Report forecasts that global capacity will see 105.2 million b/d and by 2050 growth be tapering off to 105.8 million b/d. This is from 102.7 million b/d in 2022.

Remember, this is receding growth overall, not receding consumption overall. IEA expects North America to see reducing refinery capacity on the order of 1.4 % between 2022 and 2030. To meet emission reduction goals, North American capacity will have to reduce by 7.5 % from 2022 to 2030. By contrast, under current policies India is expected to see an increase in refining capacity from 7.2 to 7.5 milling b/d by 2050.

The Age of Petroleum is approaching a production plateau as the oxidation of hydrocarbons gives way to harnessing the reduction potential of metallic lithium. Oh, what a time we’ll have! Think of all of the new failure modes we’ll discover.

On top of all of the current challenges to fire departments, there is a new one. Source: Battery Fires.

Plumbing the Depths Just a Bit on the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict

I do understand that speaking as a non-religious foreigner about the Israeli/Palestinian conflict is prone to misinterpretation and loaded with obstacles of history, sociology and religion. The whole topic is drenched in ethnic tropes and half-truths overprinted on reality. The US, UK, Europe and others have not exactly been the best friend of the people of the Middle East. Wariness is warranted. I get that. But we outsiders should try to understand the fundamentals of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict as objectively as possible. Choosing a side to support may be required, but at least it should be tempered with objective facts to the extent that it is possible.

Hamas is an acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement, or (حركة المقاومة الإسلامية Ḥarakah al-Muqāwamah al-ʾIslāmiyyah) according to Wikipedia. It is a Sunni Islamist military and political movement which took control of Gaza in 2007. Hamas has never recognized the Israel–PLO Letters of Mutual Recognition or the Oslo Accords.

The Hamas Charter of 1988 set forth the beliefs and ideals of the Arab Palestinian organization. Many agree that the document was a bit harsh in places, namely outright calling for the destruction of Israel. The 2017 revision of the Hamas Charter supposedly tones down some of the sharp edges of the 1988 version.

The purpose and goals of Hamas rest firmly on Islam. Palestine and Islam are inseparable. They want it known that to conflict with Palestine is to conflict with Islam. From the 1988 Charter-

Source: The Avalon Project, Yale Law School

The more recent charter seeks to discern their view of the difference between Zionism and Judaism. It makes a point of stating their tolerance of other religions, as long as Islam reigns supreme. Article 16 of the 2017 Charter states-

Source: Hamas Media Office.

On occasion you’ll hear a few interview guests in media say that Gaza is the world’s largest “open-air prison.” Or that Israel is operating an “apartheid” system. Ok, fine. That’s a spiraling haggle I’ll stay away from. But the question remains, how is the world to think about over 2 million Palestinians confined to a small area surrounded by walls, the sea and military coverage? Obviously, Israel has the right to defend itself against terrorism or civil unrest, but the Palestinians also have a right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Holding the conflict in place are the deep roots of incompatible cultures and years of war.

In a way, the Hamas attack on Israel resembles a prison riot. A population of ethnically united people who long ago exhausted their patience with tight confinement and no discernable future have staged yet another uprising. Like the old nuclear war metaphor, the opposing parties are standing in gasoline, each holding a match. Alert as the Israelis are, they missed signs of threat. The staging and execution of the Hamas attack was an actual surprise.

Retired General David Petraeus made some important observations on the situation. Paraphrasing, he said that even though the IDF is assured of retaking Gaza, they will then be faced with the dilemma of what to do next. The collapse of Hamas will only leave a power vacuum. Hamas will have conducted a mass-martyring taking the lives of Hamas fighters and thousands of Gazans. The dead will be strewn about in the crumbling remains of homes and businesses and the shattered economy of Gazan Palestinians.

Petraeus pointed out that the US has made many serious mistakes in that part of the world starting after 9/11. He said it’s time for all of us take lessons from this experience going forward.

Hamas is in a constant state of Jihad and are supported by those sharing the dream of an Islamic caliphate. Israel has built a homeland and has no intention of yielding territory. It doesn’t look like there is a possible win-win situation for peace between the current players. The trick for the world is to prevent a wider conflict from igniting.

Yet Another War

The war between Hamas and Israel is in its 4th day. On Saturday, October 7, 2032, Hamas launched a highly organized commando and rocket attack into Israel from Gaza. Many in Israel have called it their 9/11. Accounts vary at present, but about 3000 rockets were launched into Israel in salvos around dawn resulting in the death of many noncombatants in Israel. This triggered Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system knocking down many of the incoming rockets.

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is longstanding and packed with history and nuance well beyond my understanding. One question can be asked, however, and that is- did Hamas not know that they will lose and set back any semblance of peace for a very long time? The IDF has the capacity to fight and win a much bigger war than this. In response to the attack by Hamas, much of Gaza will be pummeled to dust and noncombatants will suffer and die. The only question is, what cue will the Israelis need to stop the attack? When you are acting in revenge, how do you know when to stop?

Whatever passes for leadership in Gaza, Hamas I assume, must have known the inevitable outcome of this attack early on. That would make this desperate action a kind of martyrdom. Martyrdom is meant to rally support for a cause. Could part of it be the recent easing of tensions between Israel and some states on the Saudi peninsula? This would not be in Hamas’ interest. Just a guess.

The participation of the Iranians, if any, may be a part of this. Their leadership is rabidly anti-Zionist and very cunning.

In any case, I suppose the thinking was if you are going to martyr, do it big. Global attention would be the goal and they got it.

Those Wacky Republicans!

Yet again, very serious and doctrinaire House Republicans apply their skills in the art of clusterf**kery. The act of legislating and otherwise steering the big federal boat is secondary to their acquisition of power. A core of ultraorthodox conservatives called the Freedom Caucus is tangled in an internecine battle for control and don’t seem to care much about collateral damage. The roots of this group go back to the delightful Tea Party in 2015.

What the Freedom Caucus may be doing is laying the groundwork for Project 2025: Presidential Transition Project. This plan, organized by The Heritage Foundation, seeks to deconstruct or reorganize the administrative branch of the federal government and populate it with vetted, politically reliable staff. Winning seats in Congress or the Whitehouse is now deemed insufficient.

House Republicans leading the way.

This plan from The Heritage Foundation is the result of a very extensive collaboration of groups from all over the right-wing. I don’t think that anyone will deny that the federal bureaucracy is too big and too slow. But what Project 2025 plans to do is to apply a conservative foundation of politically reliable personnel. There would be a political test to pass prior to getting a government job. The effect will be to polarize the government in a way that would be quite difficult to change. They want a Republican America set in stone and they plan on starting the first day of the next Republican administration. We know this because they have written a book on how they plan to do it.

Source: The Heritage Foundation.

Meanwhile, Emperor Trumpus Maximus continues to blunder forward with promises of MAGA, all the while trampling over the garden of civilization. It’s like watching Godzilla destroying 1950’s Tokyo while a jabbering and ineffectual media makes sure to capture and replay every delicious morsel of bad adult behavior.

As always, Trump continues to rack up hours of free TV coverage. They call it news, but it’s really a nonstop freak show. The headliner, DJT, is a genius at attracting big-media coverage. Trump’s legacy is now totally out of his control. He has fumbled his business empire to the edge of extinction and his political career is disintegrating. What a dangerous idiot.

The Russians are gleefully watching our Republican House of Representatives implosion. It validates Putin’s (and China’s) claim that the US is a declining empire in moral disarray and that democracy can’t be made to work. The upcoming 2024 elections offer the hope of declining US and NATO backing of Ukraine. All Putin has to do is outlive Ukraine’s ability to wage war.

Big Prize for Quantum Spots

Poltroon University will soon host a lecture by Big Prize Laureate Dr. Professor Guss Badeen of the Swiss Federal Institute of Quantum Spot Studies in Outerlocken, Switzerland. Dr. Badeen began his work at the Soviet All-Union Agriculture and Artillery Institute in Pissov-on-Don, USSR. After the entertaining implosion of the Soviet Union, Academician Badeen made his way to Switzerland where he is now Emeritus Langweilig Professor of Quantum Agriculture. He will speak on the topic of “My Journey to Sweden with Quantum Spots.”

Admission is free but due to limited seating in the Alderaan auditorium, tickets will be required. Tickets can be obtained online at poltroon_univ.org/QSpot.

Poltroon University is located in Guapo, Arizona, adjacent to the scenic Desiccated Wasteland National Monument. Poltroon is a selective private illiberal arts institution serving the educational needs of junior varsity students. On campus visits are welcome.

The Politics of Due Process

We’ve been treated to unceasing wails of unfairness by #45 in relation to his mounting legal woes. It’s all politics, he proclaims, meant to disrupt his presidential campaign. I have to agree that politics are definitely involved- the politics of democracy and due process.

Democracy does not derive from some natural physical law. It is something that we allot to ourselves by consensus and the axiom of certain inalienable rights. In its purest form, democracy is a type of political structure focused on the will of the majority and the inherent rights of the individual. In our democracy, elected representatives put laws into place by consensus. Admittedly, it is sort of janky and prone to abuse. But, in the end, it always manages to right itself after a storm. In truth, our system of laws is inherently political by the definition below.

Politics, noun

pol·​i·​tics ˈpä-lə-ˌtiks 

plural in form but singular or plural in construction

1athe art or science of government

bthe art or science concerned with guiding or influencing governmental policy

c: the art or science concerned with winning and holding control over a government

Source: Merriam Webster

Our system of laws is subdivided into many areas. One of them specifies the layers of fair treatment by the judicial system. We call it “due process.” All of us are entitled to due process under the law, even ex-presidents.

In the course of due process, #45 has been indicted 4 times resulting in 91 felony counts. Did this result from political action? Yes indeed- the politics of democracy under the lawful guidelines of due process. Evidence of wrong-doing was presented to a grand jury of citizens 4 times and 4 times indictments were issued from 4 jurisdictions. “Mr. ex-President, this is what due process looks like. Yes, it is the politics of democracy you idiot.”