Category Archives: Current Events

How much CO2 reduction do we actually need?

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I am asking this question because the transition away from fossil fuels will have a serious knock-on effect on a very large sector of the global economy. Of the total liquid hydrocarbon production, 14 % goes to the petrochemical markets. Of natural gas production, 8 % goes to petrochemicals.

There is a serious complication connected with the idea of shutting down the combustion of hydrocarbon fuels. The elimination of oil and gas combustion activity means that crude oil production drops precipitously and therefore so would refining. Oil refineries are designed to maximize the volume of their most profitable products while minimizing their cost to manufacture. I refer to gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel. Petrochemicals come from oil and gas. Their economics ride on the coattails of fuel production to some extent in terms of scale. Refineries are physically large operations so as to operate with the maximum economy of scale. Maximum economy of manufacturing scale drives consumer prices downward.

Refineries produce much more than fuels. They produce asphalt, lubricating oil, polymer raw materials, petrochemicals for pharmaceuticals and other raw materials for thousands of products we take for granted. There are countless uses for petrochemicals beyond throw-away plastic bottles and bags. Just look around where you are sitting this very moment. Unless you are in Tierra del Fuego or Antarctica, you can’t help but see examples of hydrocarbon applications.

“Our economies are heavily dependent on petrochemicals, but the sector receives far less attention than it deserves. Petrochemicals are one of the key blind spots in the global energy debate, especially given the influence they will exert on future energy trends.” Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA

The Future of Petrochemicals, IEA
Flow of oil and gas streams to chemical product production. Source: The Future of Petrochemicals, IEA.

Could refineries adapt to the loss of a large fraction of their fuels production and still produce petrochemicals? Engineering-wise, I’d say yes. But as far as economics go, that is a harder question to answer. Company officers have a fiduciary responsibility to the stockholders. This is a baked-in feature of corporate business. The promise of ever-increasing margins and volumes is part of that. Switching gears towards sustaining the petrochemical sector in the face of declining fuel sales is natural in one sense, but if it involves declining EBITDA over time, it could be disastrous for the stock market. Petrochemical prices might have to climb drastically to sustain earnings. Players in the global oil & gas market are extremely twitchy. The mere suggestion of a potential problem is enough to send prices soaring or diving. Luckily, a wind-down of fuel production will take some time during which the players might be able to compensate.

Look around you. How many consumer goods come in plastic containers or plastic film-coated paper? All of our electronic devices are built into casings of some sort, most of which have plastic or fiberglass (resin impregnated glass fiber) components. The list is endless. For many or most of these things to stay on the market, a substitute material will be needed to replace the hydrocarbon-based materials. Wooden casings for computer monitors and iPhones? What about paint? Paint is loaded with hydrocarbon components.

A vast number of products we take for granted use hydrocarbon materials in some way. Perhaps renewable plastics will scale to meet certain demands. Recycling applies only to those plastics that can be melted- the thermoplastics. Thermoset plastics like melamine cannot be melted and so cannot be recycled. Recycling only works if consumers close the recycling loop. Plastics must be carefully sorted in the recycle process. When a mixture of plastics is melted, the blend can separate like oil and water producing inferior product. National Geographic has a good web page describing recycling.

Some plastics such as clear, colorless polyethylene films are usually pure polymer. Most synthetic polymers are colorless. In general, any synthetic polymer that is colored has pigments in it. Black plastic is loaded with soot for instance. Many polymer films for packaging are multilayered with different types of polymer layered together.

Waste thermoplastic with food residues is very problematic, especially those with oil residues. Waste plastic for recycle must be clean. Multilayer plastic films are not suitable for recycling either.

Source: Technical Bulletin, Saint Gobain. Multilayer film structure with 3 different films and two tie layers between them. The Nylon layer provides toughness and tear resistance. The polyethylenevinyl alcohol (ethylene-vinyl chloride copolymer) layer (EVOH) blocks the transmission of oxygen and carbon dioxide. Low density polyethylene (LDPE) layer provides broad chemical compatibility along with biocompatibility for safe handling of biopharmaceuticals. Not all polymers are compatible with melt bonding. The tie-layer is a melt-bondable adhesive polymer film that hold the layers of polymer into a single film. The tie layer polymer is often a polyethylene film that has a surface layer of organic acid or anhydride groups that can bind to other polymers by melt bonding.

Other additives such as plasticizers are present in flexible plastics like polyvinyl chloride (PVC) or other compositions where suppleness is important. Pure PVC is rigid. Additives are an industry unto its own. The varieties and grades in the plastics business is mind boggling. The variety of plastic compositions is too diverse to allow recycling of all plastics.

The point of this plastics background is to suggest that there are so many types and blends of plastic on the market- which is made even more complex by labels and additives -that the scope of polymer recycling must be narrowed to a few of the larger volume plastics. This is what is done today. LDPE, PP and PETE are the major polymers that are recycled in the US. Apparently, Japan is good at recycling. We in the US do poorly.

Polymer manufacturing is likely to continue indefinitely. There is simply too much money at stake for the big oil & gas and petrochemical players to deconstruct themselves to a large extent. They will, however, follow the consumer, but how far?

So, the question is this- for the sake of keeping a viable petrochemical stream in place while hydrocarbon fuel consumption declines, how much hydrocarbon fuel can we burn per year without exceeding the capacity of the earth to absorb the CO2 produced? We want to lower the slope of the atmospheric CO2 curve enough to achieve a reasonable steady state. The global economy depends very much on the production and use of petrochemicals. People will generally avoid economic suicide.

Where is the balance point for a sustainable production of necessary petrochemicals and the decommissioning of hydrocarbon fuel production? I certainly don’t know.

The Stupid in All of Us

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I’ve been struggling to find the words to accurately and succinctly describe MAGA followers in the US with their silly contrarianism and shallow theories of patriotism. I do this because there is something truly peculiar about the shape of conservatism today. I’ve been avoiding the word “stupid” because I didn’t want to hurl the accusation towards people with genuine cognitive disabilities. After all, intelligence is a multilegged attribute that encompasses too many diverse abilities with a single word. But of late I’ve decided that the word is fine to use if you don’t associate it with cognitively disabled people. Online you can find a definition defining it as “behavior or actions that show a lack of good sense or good judgement.” If it isn’t a clean detachment from the cognitively disabled, then at least it is only a superficial scratch.

Ex-president #45 took a sharp swerve from the “norms” of American politics and examples are too numerous to list here. His angry movement didn’t fall out of thin air. In the 2016 election he attracted followers by his audacity and with the propaganda engines of Twitter, conservative radio and television news. They were already out there primed by the nascent Tea Party, but along comes #45 giving them a charismatic and bellicose populist leader with a knack for getting on the news. His rhetorical skills are unmatched and he knows instinctively how to attract and excite a crowd. Importantly, he is a master of social media muckraking. He is not in the least inhibited by social norms for civil discourse.

The big hammer that American conservatism wields is the view of the “good us vs the bad them.” Somehow, the “bad them” always involves liberalism. “Them” can be the flavor of the day- immigrants, abortion, Muslims, NATO etc. This is guaranteed to frighten a certain fraction of the electorate. Throw in the eschatology of conservative Christians claiming that American politics will lead to or accelerate the end times and you have potent brew of dread fear.

Just to be clear, in US history there have never been long stretches of time when citizens frolicked innocently in green pastures of civility and peace was upon the land. There has always been turmoil and hardship somewhere for someone. We’ve always had murderers and thieves preying on the innocent and unwary. Yet the US experiment with democracy and capitalism overall has thrived, dipped and recovered over time. Somehow, Americans have avoided fascism. Until now.

There have always been exceptional people in the world who were able to rally groups for an epic cause, whether it was for military, political or religious purposes. It is the story of history. Today is no different, although the means and speed of persuasive communication has advanced considerably. After the invention of the printing press, there was opposition by religious leaders claiming that easy and rapid availability of information or propaganda would destabilize their personal view of how the social order should be. Since then, ideas of all sorts have found their way into the minds of the masses at increasing speed to this very day. Today, populist rhetoric and opinion can travel internationally at speeds limited only by the clock speed of computers and the speed of light.

There has always been a fraction of any population that gets agitated or frightens easily. Fright can come from direct experience or persuasion. Anything that threatens perceived safety, stability or income will unnerve people to some extent and some much more than others. It is called economic disenfranchisement and it is widespread in the US. Money equals power and lacking it means that one is not invited to the party.

The feeling of being cheated also agitates people. And this is where #45 excels. Unfortunately, in the US there is a large group of people that have not been able to fully enjoy the fruits of our civilization. For many reasons they have been passed over in terms of opportunities to advance or just keep up with the times.

One effect of technological advance is the obsolescence of labor-intensive jobs. Labor costs are always a target for innovators and businesspeople in the eternal march towards greater efficiency. This has been happening since the invention of the wheel. Any given task can be the target of cost reduction by lowering of the headcount. It may seem coldhearted but, in society, it is as ever-present as gravity.

People who lack valuable skill sets or those made obsolete by technology or corporate maneuvering are at a serious disadvantage in American society. People who chose life paths that did not include educational enrichment such a trade school or college have long been at a disadvantage. A comfortable retirement after a lifetime of low wages is difficult or impossible. Some people manage to excel but most don’t. Some start businesses that take off. Most don’t because they don’t know how or lack startup capital. The market can only sustain so many nail salons or restaurants in a given location.

Indicted ex-president #45 discovered his knack for anger politics at some point and jumped on it at a time when conservative electronic media was blossoming. He couldn’t help himself. His authoritarian impulse found a venue in politics and wide acceptance.

The acceptance of authoritarian leadership is particularly stupid for a citizen in a democracy. Our democracy is extremely unusual in human history. Many of us fail to appreciate that.

All of us exhibit stupidity now and then. We all commit “behavior or actions that show a lack of good sense or good judgement.” I do, that much is certain. We live in a time when a great many fellow citizens assent to a movement that, in the end, is not to their best interests. Not all stupid behaviors are equal in magnitude or in the kind of harm produced. It seems to me that gladly accepting authoritarian leadership in anger is especially stupid. Democracy once forfeited is not easily retrieved.

Trading away many of the benefits of democracy for some perceived guarantee of social order is a prelude to dictatorial government. Democracy is inherently chaotic to some extent. This is at the core of the American experiment. In exchange a notch of social order we trade some measure of freedom and liberty. Voting for authoritarian governance is the final act of a democracy.

The Folly of it is Stunning

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When I look around I marvel at how quickly some things can happen. How is it that so many people prostrate themselves in front of a madman like Trump since 2015? So many people are able to ignore the lies, aspersions and exaggerations that he casts about, and they even increase their support for the man as the felony indictments accumulate. Who would have guessed that America would fall into this tar pit of absurdity?

I’ve always suspected that the American experiment would collapse at some point, like all empires do. But to do so at the hands of a cartoonish, thuggish wannabe dictator-real-estate-developer-TV-star is just too much to bear. It’s so incredibly disappointing.

The Trump lovers seem unlikely to respond to reason in their lifetimes. They will go to their graves having given themselves to a confidence man who spoiled the American experiment.

Junior RFK and Thimerosal

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My, my, my. Rober F. Kennedy Jr. really screwed the pooch with his comments on ethnically targeted COVID-19. Reportedly, he said “there is an argument that (COVID-19) is ethnically targeted”, adding “Covid-19 is targeted to attack Caucasians and Black people. The people who are most immune are Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese …. we don’t know whether it’s deliberately targeted or not.” If this quote is correct, he did not actually say that COVID-19 was ethnically targeted, but rather that “there is an argument …”. It is much like saying “is Bob still beating his wife? I just don’t know …” Whether he endorses the targeting theory or not isn’t clear, but he was willing to trot out this provocative statement to make his point. There was much blowback. Given the racial undertones, it was a large blunder.

RFK Jr. is well known as an advocate for conspiracy theories, some of which are whoppers. The online news magazine Slate has an article that compiles them. I find that his portfolio of mania is exhausting. The thought of pushing back against such seems like a fool’s errand. It reminds of a line in the movie True Grit: “What have you done when you have bested a fool?” What is the point in debating him?

RFK Jr. is a Harvard grad and went the University of Virginia School of Law to get his JD degree. He had a few slip ups early in his career but recovered. He spent most of his career as an environmental lawyer and has fought many laudable battles for environmental justice. Somewhere along the line he went off the rails and landed in the crackpot ferry to conspiracy land. RFK Jr. is a penetrating anti-vaccine voice who can draw large crowds if for no other reason just to see him.

The substance of concern behind much of the anti-vaccine Sturm und Drang is Thimerosal. It is a synthetic organomercurial compound that is effective against bacteria and fungi. Its biocidal properties have been known since the around 1930. Mercurials have been used since the time of the Swiss alchemist Paracelsus (Philippus Aureolus Theophrastus Bombastus von Hohenheim) in the 1500’s. Paracelsus is known for the pronouncement that “only the dose makes the poison.” This remains a fundamental principle of toxicology.

The early mercurial medicaments used by Paracelsus were simple inorganic salts of mercury(II) like mercuric chloride, HgCl2, or mercury(I) like mercurous chloride, Hg2Cl2, also known as the mineral calomel. Mercuric chloride is prepared by treating liquid mercury with sulfuric acid followed by addition of sodium chloride for anion exchange. Mercurous chloride is prepared by heating mercuric chloride with mercury to do the reduction of Hg++ to Hg+.

Thimerosal is sometimes wrongly compared to methylmercury, a known and tragically toxic compound with the formula CH3Hg+X–. The X anion can be chloride, hydroxide or a thiol, depending on the source. It is an easy comparison to make because of the similarity of methyl (CH3) to the ethyl (CH3CH2) hydrocarbon group in Thimerosal, but research has proven it to be a poor comparison. Methylmercury compounds can be produced by aquatic microorganisms in water bodies in the presence of inorganic mercury. The methylation of natural biomolecules is a well-known process.

Like many metals, mercury has an affinity for sulfur, occurring naturally as mercury (II) sulfide, HgS, as deposits of Cinnabar or as a minor constituent with other minerals. It also has an affinity for sulfur-containing amino acids such as methionine, cysteine and homocysteine found in proteins. In the bloodstream mercury binds with proteins like albumin to the extent of 95-99 %. While in the body and exposed to water it decomposes to thiosalicylate and ethylmercury. Ethylmercury cation (CH3CH2Hg+) disperses widely and can cross the blood-brain and placental barriers.

Cinnabar crystal, HgS. Source: Mindat.org

According to Doria, Farina, and Rocha (2015) in Applied Toxicology, a comparison of effects between methylmercury and ethylmercury gave essentially the same outcomes in vitro for cardiovascular, neural and immune cells. Under in vivo conditions, however, there was evidence of different toxicokinetic profiles. Ethylmercury showed a shorter half-life, compartmental distribution and elimination compared to methylmercury. Methylmercury and ethylmercury toxicity profiles show different exposure and toxicity risks.

For many years, Thimerosal was sold as an antiseptic under the name Merthiolate as a tincture (an ethanol solution) by Eli Lilly and Co. Like most households in the 1960’s, we had it in the medicine cabinet or its cousin Mercurochrome. They were used for topical application to burns, cuts and scratches. Thimerosal has been used as a preservative in many health-related preparations such as vaccines, eye drops and contact lens disinfecting solutions. While the CDC has cleared it of doing harm, anti-vaccine mania hit the fan well before COVID-19 and RFK Jr. put his credibility and name recognition behind it.

Thimerosal was first prepared by chemist Morris Kharasch at the University of Maryland in 1927. An interesting technical summary of the substance can be found on Drugbank Online.

Morris Selig Kharasch. Photo credit: National Academy of Sciences, 1960.

Kharasch is known for his pioneering work in free radical chemistry in the 1930’s at the University of Chicago but before that began his work with organomercury chemistry during the 1920’s while at the University of Maryland. His development of Thimerosal was a result of his organomercury work. He is also credited with opening the door to organic free radical chemistry leading to improvements in rubber polymer chemistry and manufacture. His work led to the use of peroxides to reliably induce the so-called anti-Markovnikov addition of a protic acid (HX) to olefins. The presence of trace peroxides was behind the unexpected “reverse” Markovnikov addition of seen in work with the addition of hydrogen bromide to bromopropene.

Kharasch’s early work in organomercury chemistry led to the invention (and patenting) of what became known as Merthiolate (thimerosal). Kharasch later worked as a successful consultant for Eli Lilly, the Du Pont Company, US Rubber, the US Army and others. In many cases these companies were the assignees of the patents.

Little mention is made of Morris Kharasch as a prolific and wide-ranging inventor with, by my count, 117 US patents with him as the inventor. So, why did Kharasch bother to patent Thimerosal? Did he anticipate its biocidal and preservative properties?

Kharasch references make mention of a 1931 patent regarding Thimerosal. That patent is STABILIZED BACTERICIDE AND PROCESS OF STABILIZING IT, US 1862896, appln. filed August 22, 1931, assignee: no party disclosed. The patent claims a process for and claims of water-soluble solution compositions. Numerous additives include antioxidants, alkyl amines, ethanolamine and borax. Claim 19 is telling. It claims the composition of sodium ethyl mercurithiosalicylate (Thimerosal), monoethanolamine, borax as a buffer and enough sodium chloride to make the composition sufficiently isotonic with the body fluids. In this patent the Thimerosal composition itself is not claimed, but as a component of a stabilized water solution. Claim 14 claims a water solution composition of sodium ethyl mercurithiosalicylate and an antioxidant which tends to “inhibit the acquisition” (odd choice of words) of burning properties by the solution. This plus the claim of an isotonic composition strongly suggests anticipated medicinal applications.

STABILIZED ORGANO-MERCUR-SULFUR COMPOUNDS, US 2012820, appln. Feb 17, 1934, assignee: Eli Lilly and Company. Claims a stabilized solution of alkyl mercuric sulfur compounds in water with aliphatic 1,2-diamines. Also claims Ethylenediamine ethylmercurithiosalicylate composition. This is similar to the ‘896 patent but specified ethylenediamines.

As mentioned above, the biocidal nature of inorganic mercurials had been known for a long time. There was actually limited success in the treatment of syphilis. But they were long known for being very harsh on the patient and grew out of favor when better treatments came along.

The antiseptic properties of Mercurochrome were discovered in 1918 at Johns Hopkins Hospital by urologist Hugh H. Young. Mercurochrome is essentially a dye molecule with an attached mercury warhead. There are three groups on the organic structure that aid in its solubility in water- NaO, CO2Na, and HgOH. Water solubility is often an important attribute in medicinal substances.

Source: Wikipedia.

Given that antiseptic properties of organomercurials were known, it is perhaps not surprising that an enterprising Ukrainian immigrant with an interest in organomercurials like Morris Kharasch might want to patent his invention.

Russian Aggression Towards Ukraine

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Some Western-centric remarks.

  • The history of the present Ukrainian territory is not a happy one. The land has been soaked with Ukrainian blood by Hitler and Stalin. Not being a historian, I’ll defer to my betters for a more cogent account of the timeline of that territory.
  • I’m completely behind the Ukrainians in their resistance to Putin’s brutal war machine. Putin’s view is that Ukraine has been an administrative district of Russia all along and is now infested with NAZI brutes. That Ukraine fell under the control of NAZIs is absurd on its face, but to a Russian public trapped in a deep information silo, it is apparently plausible.
  • According to Ukrainian historian Serhii Plokhii at the Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard, from 1918 there were repeated failed attempts by the Bolsheviks to gain control of Ukraine. Lenin relented and concluded that it was necessary to grant Ukraine formal independence by 1922. This was necessary for the Bolsheviks to maintain control over Ukraine. Ukraine was granted autonomy as an independent state within the Soviet Union.
  • In the recent 2023 meeting in Vilnius, NATO declined to accept Ukraine joining the organization. Russia has long made a show of believing that NATO wants to commit aggression against them. That NATO is a defensive pact somehow never sunk in. Ukraine joining NATO will only be seen by Putin as the latest and largest threat to Russian state security. Given how well the conventional military apparatus has performed in the attack on Ukraine, it isn’t safe to conclude that steady hands are hovering over the nuclear button.
  • With the violent history of Russia in eastern Europe, why would anyone want to start a war of aggression against Russia there? Let’s say that the West waged war against Russia and won. They are not a nation of people begging for western-style democracy. Russia resents the cultural, military and political dominance of the West, that is, Western hegemony. The collapse of the USSR was a major loss of face for a great many in the Soviet Union, especially for Lieutenant Colonel and later FSB director Vladimir Putin. Putin openly seeks to “Make Russia Great Again,” and like Trump, is surfing on a wave of fear and nationalism.
  • It seems certain that once Ukraine is in hand, Putin will continue with his murderous land-grab. The Baltic states, Poland, Georgia and a land corridor through Poland to Kaliningrad are all at risk and they know it. It is what was called the “Domino Theory” back in the cold-war days of the Viet Nam war. It was used to justify many military responses by the west to Russian expansionism.
  • For the West, the challenge is to keep Putin’s Russia contained and yet away from the nuclear precipice. It is a game of who can outlast who.
  • American apathy with foreign affairs has long been a common affliction. Sadly, the US Republican party is making a virtue out of admiring Putin and the burgeoning autocracy in Hungary. Since World War II, the US and Europe (formerly Western Europe) have had hegemony in the areas of dominant currency, finance, English language, military power projection and general commerce around the world. Today, Russia and China are quite clear that they wish to bring down this historical Western hegemony as soon as they can.

Definition: Hegemony, \hih-JEM-uh-nee\ noun. 1 : preponderant influence or authority over others : domination. 2 : the social, cultural, ideological, or economic influence exerted by a dominant group.

Wikipedia.

Definition: Liberal democracy is the combination of a liberal political philosophy that operates under a representative democratic form of government. It is characterized by elections between multiple distinct political parties, a separation of powers into different branches of government, the rule of law in everyday life as part of an open society, a market economy with private property, universal suffrage, and the equal protection of human rights, civil rights, civil liberties and political freedoms for all people. To define the system in practice, liberal democracies often draw upon a constitution, either codified or uncodified, to delineate the powers of government and enshrine the social contract. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_democracy#:~:text=In%20liberal%20democracy%2C%20an%20elected,distributes%20economic%20and%20social%20benefits.
  • Under Chinese or Russian hegemony the world order will be very different than that held by the US and Europe. The US and Europe have various versions of liberal democracy and support other nations who do as well. To view the future, just have a look at how these two countries conduct government in their own countries. Care to live under the Chinese Communist Party’s or under Putin’s world order? As an American, the English lingua franca, for better or worse, seems to work fairly well. Imagine Westerners switching to written and spoken Mandarin. At least Russian is based on an alphabet. Am I biased towards alphabetic languages? Definitely.

Water Breaks in Tejas

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Local laws mandating that 10 minute water breaks be given to construction workers every 4 hours have been eliminated by Tejas Governor Greg Abbott and the legislature under HB2127 titled “Texas Regulatory Consistency Act.” The bill was put forward by Rep. Dustin Burrows, R-Lubbock. The bill is seen as an effort to push back on progressive local laws by cities like liberal-leaning Austin and Dallas where ordinances have been put into place to protect construction workers against the oppressive heat of Texas. Abbott said the bill will “provide a new hope to Texas businesses struggling under burdensome local regulations.”

Hyperbole,  /haɪˈpɝː.bəl.i/, noun; a way of speaking or writing that makes someone or something sound bigger, better, more, etc. than they are

In Section 2 of the bill, it says the legislature finds that:  “(1) the state has historically been the exclusive regulator of many aspects of commerce and trade in this state; (2)  in recent years, several local jurisdictions have sought to establish their own regulations of commerce that are different than the state’s regulations; and (3)  the local regulations have led to a patchwork of regulations that apply inconsistently across this state.“

The State claims to be the exclusive regulator of commerce and trade in the state pursuant to Section 5, Article XI, Texas Constitution. HB2127 was written to more closely define what kinds of codes local governments are free to do.

Given the state’s interest in commerce and trade, Section 6 removes any ambiguity in that regard. Labor regulations come under the heading of commerce and trade, so the state is the only lawgiver here.

HB 2127, SECTION 6.

Subchapter A, Chapter 1, Business & Commerce Code, is amended by adding Section 1.109 to read as follows:

Sec. 1.109. PREEMPTION. Unless expressly authorized by another statute, a municipality or county may not adopt, enforce, or maintain an ordinance, order, or rule regulating conduct in a field of regulation that is occupied by a provision of this code. An ordinance, order, or rule that violates this section is void, unenforceable, and inconsistent with this code.

Backers of the bill say that under OSHA, employers already have a duty to provide a safe workplace work place. A spokesman for the Associated Builders and Contractors of Texas said that “local rules impose a rigid scheme that, unlike OSHA guidelines, does not allow the flexibility needed to tailor breaks to individual job site conditions.”

However, according to David Michaels who led OSHA from 2009 to 2017, “Under OSHA law, it is employers who are responsible to make sure workers are safe,” said Michaels, now a professor at the George Washington University School of Public Health. “And we have compelling evidence that they are doing a very poor job because many workers are injured on the job, especially in Texas.”

Michaels also said that OSHA can issue a citation for a heat-related injury or death, but only after it has taken place. He also points out that OSHA has no national standard for heat related injury.

However, OSHA does have the General Duty Clause for situations where there are no specific standards applicable.

29 U.S.C. § 654, 5(a)1: Each employer shall furnish to each of his employees employment and a place of employment which are free from recognized hazards that are causing or are likely to cause death or serious physical harm to his employees.”

29 U.S.C. § 654, 5(a)2: Each employer shall comply with occupational safety and health standards promulgated under this act.

29 U.S.C. § 654, 5(b): Each employee shall comply with occupational safety and health standards and all rules, regulations, and orders issued pursuant to this Act which are applicable to his own actions and conduct.

The legislation to remove local laws regarding construction labor hazards was apparently motivated by the desire of the GOP to slap down islands of liberalism in Texas.

This graphic was produced by the Texas Tribune using data from Texas Department of State Health Services. Source: https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/16/texas-heat-wave-water-break-construction-workers/

The chart above shows that known heat-related deaths in Tejas are up sharply in the last 2 years. Migrants and the homeless are hit particularly hard by hyperthermia.

I can understand the desire to smooth out the spotty nature of regulatory sovereignty across any state. It is really a matter of state vs local control and there shouldn’t be any confusing overlap of authority. Texas has chosen primacy over commerce and trade, of which labor is a part of. Somewhere in the process of this, someone noticed that regulations on water breaks mandated by municipal statute will be invalidated.

News stories came out with the shocking news that people working outdoors will not be guaranteed water breaks. The absence of statutory regulation on water breaks does not mean that workers will be denied water. Any employer who wants to retain employees will not deny water to employees. What has been invalidated are mandatory 10-minute water breaks every 4 hours. A workday is usually broken down into a break midmorning and midafternoon with lunch at around noon. These are 3 opportunities to grab a drink of water. A mandatory break after 4 hours past arrival places the break around lunch and quitting time anyway for an 8-hour day, so it is hard to imagine what advantage it gives for an 8-hour day. For longer days it would be beneficial. Employers who would deny water to employees should be punished.

Construction site managers object to rules that would interfere with things like concrete deliveries and crane work. Both are time sensitive activities. Even in the rough and tumble construction field, most companies will do the right thing and allow access to water at all times.

Texas HB2127 itself is silent on the matter of water breaks for workers. It simply reasserts authority already provided in the state constitution, namely as the, ” … exclusive regulator of many aspects of commerce and trade … ” and supersedes local statutes that overlap with what the state sees as its sovereignty. It seems a little sly, but not fundamentally corrupt.

So, the question becomes, will the State of Texas legislate mandatory water breaks for workers in hot environs? Given the rabid pro-business leanings of the state, it seems doubtful.

Am I taking the side of the Republicans on this? Goddammit, I hate to say it, but I suppose I am.

“… radical-left Democrats, Marxist, communists and fascists …”

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I’m running out of words to describe the deplorable ex-president #45. Just when you think he can’t add to his steaming heap of manure called a legacy, he shovels on more. It seems like there is no limit to the falsehoods he is willing to declare in public and no limit to what his supporters are willing to accept.

In regard to his indictments, he was recorded as saying something to the effect of “They’re not after me, they’re after you … I’m just standing in their way!” He is turning his indictments into the image of him sacrificing himself on the cross for the millions of Americans. A blood sacrifice for his beloved followers. If you supposed that this vaudevillian stunt was transparently phony to everyone, you’d be wrong.

#45 has been referring to “… radical-left Democrats, Marxist, communists and fascists …” in his gimmie-all-yer-lovin’ rallies. How absurd. Leftists aren’t fascists- they are antifascists. And by the way, what is wrong with being against fascism? #45 is using his usual mirror tactic of taking accusations against him and aiming it back at his critics. He knows very well that he isn’t being held accountable for truthfulness by the people he counts on. He tells big lies and repeats them over and over. It works for him. The very boldness of his lies somehow validates them in the minds of his followers.

Marxism and socialism have been in the scrapyard of history for a decades. The Soviet experiment with using socialism to get to communism was an abject failure. Stalin’s USSR was a brutal, murderous dictatorship tarted up to appear as a people’s paradise for those outside the iron curtain.

China today is a single party communist dictatorship that practices centralized control and nationalistic state capitalism. Previously, however, under the command of Chairman Mao Zedong, it is estimated that 40 to 80 million people died as a result of starvation, persecution, prison labor and execution in order to achieve his personal dream of a communist paradise.

It is difficult to find a communist state where people have the liberties that we in the US take for granted. It seems that to compel people to hand over their belongings to the state, a good bit of muscle is needed. Stalin found this out when he tried to collectivize Ukraine in the early 1930s. He ended up causing mass starvation and sending people to the gulags. The notion that the US is under threat from communist influence is without credibility. The odd communist may pop up now and then but they are little more than a curiosity not worthy of concern.

It is hard to know what Republicans regard as radical about Democrat ideals. Could it be that anyone who disagrees with today’s GOP is a “leftist radical”? If there are actual living, breathing Marxists among liberals in the US, they are likely to be lonely. There is Richard D Wolff at UMass, Amherst. Wolff is against capitalism and makes some fair points, but the momentum of history won’t be going his way any time soon. People still remember the Soviet experiment with Marxism-Leninism which was a disaster.

So·cial·ism: noun; a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.

Source: Google

Will citizens of the US ever acquiesce to turning over private property to a socialist government? Clearly, there is not a chance. The accusation that US liberals harbor socialistic desires is a Republican fever dream. The same with communism. The current population of US citizens would never embrace communism. Too many past instances of communist or socialist dictatorships in the world, and besides, Americans love their private property and would defend it with the umpteen hundred million guns under their pillows.

It is a Republican fantasy that only they are the true patriots in the US. This gives them license to posture as the only “real” Americans worthy of the title. This froze out as axiomatic for them many years ago, especially since the years of Mr. “trickle-down economics” Reagan.

Having social services is not the same as having socialism. A capitalist economy that provides a social safety net through taxation is not socialism. The capitalists still own their means of production, distribution and exchange.

Ordinary citizens in the US pay taxes to support the Army, Air Force, Space Force, Marines, Navy and Coast Guard. We also pay taxes and fees for upkeep on state and national infrastructure like roads, bridges, air traffic control and many other things. All of this goes to support our capitalist means of production, distribution and exchange.

Citizens pay exorbitant tuition to educate themselves to a level where they can contribute to operating our capitalistic enterprises. Payment for the common good isn’t borne exclusively by business. Both citizens and our capitalist enterprises benefit from this arrangement.

The business side should recall that citizens contribute to their corporate existence by funding their government contracts and by purchasing products that they off-shored to China to the detriment of US workers and security.

Chinese Espionage From Cuba

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This caught me by surprise. I have long suspected that Putin would establish a base in Cuba. Instead, the Chinese are working on it. According to the Financial Times, the Biden administration has disclosed that China has been conducting electronic espionage from Cuba since 2019. (This was reported by the Wall Street Journal 6/8/23, but the article is behind a paywall).

China’s spy balloon overflight of the US recently, if actually planned, was quite bold. They retort that US spy planes frequently fly along their borders. Setting up a spy base in Cuba has invaded what we have normally thought of as our back yard. What if China decides to conduct military training in the Gulf of Mexico? US territorial waters extend 12 nautical miles from shore. How should we react? The US supports Taiwan and has conducted military exercises in the waters between China and Taiwan. What would we have to stand on when we object?

Territorial waters. Credit: https://iilss.net/what-is-the-meaning-of-coast-in-law-of-the-sea-losc-and-customary-international-law/
Territorial and economic zone boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico. Credit: NOAA, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/gulf-data-atlas/atlas.htm?plate=Marine%20Jurisdictions

China has been cooperating with Cuba in terms of increasing trade including telecom and biotech. They are reportedly spending big money in the Port of Mariel.

China continues to aggressively spread its influence across the world while it continues to plead for “mutual trust and regional peace, stability and development.”

Plainly, China is aiming for economic and military hegemony around the world. Putin’s Ukrainian invasion blunder will take many years for Russia to recover from. What a post-Putin Russia looks like isn’t clear. Given the widespread intimidation and apathy of the population, the hope for a non-authoritarian Russia seems remote.

Meanwhile, as America dithers in its toxic pool of domestic politics and fratricide, China is moving to make the 21st century as China’s century. China must believe that we Americans are a bunch of f*ckin’ idiots. Maybe they’re right. Political conflict in the US has become too intoxicating and financially lucrative for rational governance.

Global oil demand growth to flatten in 2028

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) is predicting that growth in annual demand for crude oil will shrink from 2.8 million barrels per day to 0.4 million barrels per day by 2028. This is interpreted to be the result of the global shift to cleaner energy alternatives as well as high prices and security of supply issues. By 2028 IEA says that peak oil demand may be in sight.

IEA also predicts that the use of oil for transport fuels will go into decline by 2026. Many more insights into the global oil market are to be found in the link.

Note that this report is about oil, not natural gas.

Expelling Women from Pastoral Duty

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Latest news from the Baptists. At the 2023 Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) in New Orleans a move is underway to expel almost 2000 women from pastoral functions in its churches. A general vote will take place this week.

Apparently, the right wing of the SBC wants to crack down on what it sees as a liberal shift in its membership. Ultraconservatives believe that women pastors are just the beginning of future acceptance of homosexuality and sexual immorality. The ultraconservative fraction of American evangelism has been melding with Republican politics for decades since President Reagan and Jerry Falwell.

Pastor Mike Law from Arlington Baptist Church in Arlington, Virginia, wrote a letter suggesting an amendment to the SBC constitution stating that a church could only be regarded as Southern Baptist if it “does not affirm, appoint or employ a woman as a pastor of any kind.” The 111 page letter co-signed by 2000 male pastors and professors. Law cites 1 Tim. 3:1–7; Titus 1:5–9 in the Bible as backing up his assertion of the role of women in the church.

The language of these verses do not explicitly declare women as ineligible as an “overseer”, but they state that the overseer must be a “husband of only one wife“. The rest of the language goes on to list a number of personal qualities that an overseer must have.

I’m obviously not a Biblical scholar nor a believer in magic. Furthermore, this is a private matter among Baptists. Actually, it amuses me to watch them agonizing over how to polish the big brass knob on the doorway to their hoped for afterlife.

What I do care about is that this is a major setback for women in the 13 million member SBC organization. It imposes an inherent subordination on females based on the assertions of males who have appointed themselves in charge based on their literalist interpretations.

The text that they cite was written in a time when women were mere chattel who were deemed lesser than men. People get so wrapped up trying to do biblical things in biblical ways that they forget the core humane purpose of the church.

Worse than the unreasonable restraints on SBC women is how it will validate the woefully misguided instincts of the ultraorthodox Baptists as they spread into the greater population through politics. They want a theocratic state where people like themselves will rule under “biblical law”. They’re going to be disappointed.