Category Archives: Economics

Zoning and Hard Times

Many have written about the essential fragility of the economic situation of most American workers. We save too little and accumulate too much high interest debt.  Our consumption in every context seems unsustainable. The fragility of the monetary system with its lack of dependence on gold and the cosmic-scale debt that our country has racked up has many people worked into an existential lather.

The hard reality is that a worker can lose his/her job and all of the forms of stability that comes with it. We have become absolutely dependent on the economic system of the “employment” by people and organizations. We exchange our labor for payment on an hourly or salary basis and hope to sustain a stable and predictable lifestyle therefrom.

When a person loses their job, the reality of maintaining shelter and keeping everyone fed and clothed pops straight up into view. Because we have structured our culture and economic system on sustenance by employment, our ability to improvise is weak. Our ability to get another cashflow stream going is limited and most people pursue solutions that consist of finding other employment.

What workers in America lack is something that is available in much poorer countries. When an American worker loses their job, either they must find another job or start a business to sustain a living income. But if an American worker wants to start a business making something or retailing, chances are that local zoning codes will bar them from operating out of their home.

There are certain kinds of business activity that people can do out of their residence. Many people do office type work like accounting, consulting, writing, and other information intensive services out of a home office. Baby sitting, daycare, sewing, and small scale construction contracting are commonly based in a residence.

But if you want to repair cars, retail specialty parts of all kinds, or manufacture widgets at the microscale, chances are that your activity will be banned either by municipal ordinance or by a home owners association.

If you visit a city in a poorer country- say, Thailand- what you will see are large sections of housing where people combine their occupation with their residence. I recall being lost on foot somewhere in Bangkok a few years ago, wandering through neighborhoods where families lived in small shops that had a metal overhead door for street access by potential customers. At sundown, the shop activity ceased and the stove came out and a pot of soup was put on the heat. Fans, televisions, and music would blare into the sweltering streets along with the aroma of food.

Poor as these folks might be, they have something that American city dwellers absolutely lack. They have the ability to consolidate their resources to provide shelter and an income. By day a family might sell parts for small gas engines or some particular range of plumbing fittings. By night they repair to the back room for supper and relaxation.

An American facing the prospects of no job and left with only industrial skills is in a bit of a pickle.  While they might have very valuable skills, chances are that these skills are not readily transferable to common home-based activities. Someone with retail experience, on the other hand, might be able to put together a small shop.

What would stop an American city dweller from starting a home retail business is the issue of zoning and code compliance.  If an unemplyed person wanted to sell articles of clothing in a converted garage shop, there would be a long list of problems with the town board and the neighborhood. There would be applications and appeals, neighborhood input, and public hearings for a variance to the code. Zoning, parking, fire codes, and handicap access are just the start.

Then there is the matter of neighbors and their firm theories on property value. US culture has long been aloft on an arc of gentrification. People invest heavily in their homes and view their shelter not just as something that keeps out the weather. We festoon them from a vast array of manufactured decorative goods. We slather them with paint and adorn them with “accessories”.  

We have come to rely on our homes as repositories of personal wealth. And this notion, evolved from countless proposals before countless town boards, has become a complex web of building codes and ordinances controlling seemingly every degree of freedom to act that you can imagine.

Go to a town board meeting anywhere and look for those who seek to influence the board. Much of the time they are people related to real estate and development. Much of the gentrification we see has its roots with developers seeking to provide a sense of exclusivity. 

The result is that wealth creation by the appreciation of residential property value has been given a privileged position over wealth creation by the productive use of that property.

Our ability to sustain ourselves through hard times is constrained by rules to meant to protect property value and provide a basis for notions of the residential ideal. Americans are poorly prepared to be poor. We have an infrastructure that is not well adapted to allowing the unfortunate unemployed the option to scratch out a living from their homes. So pervasive is the residential ideal that the options for shelter are few in gentrified areas of the country. We have zoned ourselves into a corner based on bourgeois notions of aesthetic tidiness.

On the pitfalls of process intensification

As any process development chemist knows, there is motivation to optimize a chemical process to produce maximum output in the minimum of reaction space. In the context of this essay, I’m referring to batch or semi-batch processes. Most multipurpose fine chemical production batch reactors have a capacity somewhere between 25 and 5000 gallons. These reactors are connected to utilities that supply heat transfer fluids for heating and cooling. These vessels are connected to inerting gases- nitrogen is typical- and to vacuum systems as well.

Maximum reactor pressure can be set as a matter of policy or by the vessel rating. Organizations can, as a matter of policy, set the maximum vessel pressure by the selection of the appropriate rupture disk rating. Vessel pressure rating and emergency venting considerations are a specialist art best left to chemical engineers.

Reactor temperatures are determined by the limits of the vessel materials and by the heat/chiller source. Batch reactors are typically heated or chilled with a heat transfer fluid. On heating, pressurized steam may be applied to the vessel jacket to provide even and controlled heating.  Or a heat transfer fluid like Dowtherm may be used in a heating or chilling circuit.

Process intensification is about getting the maximum space yield (kg product per liter of reaction volume) and involves several parameters in process design. Concentration, temperature, and pressure are three of the handles the process chemist can pull to increase the reaction velocity generally, but concentration is the important variable in high space yield processes.  Increasing reaction temperatures or pressures might increase the number of batches per week, but if more product per batch is desired and reactor choices are limited, then eventually the matter of higher concentration must be addressed.

The principle of the economy of scale says that on scale-up of a process, not all costs scale continuously or at the same rate. That is, if you double the scale, you double the raw material costs but not necessarily the labor costs. While there may be some beneficial economy of scale in the raw materials, most of the economy will be had in the labor component of the process cost. The labor and overhead costs in operating a full reactor are only slightly greater than a quarter full reactor. So, the labor component is diluted over a greater number of kg of product in a full reactor.

The same effect operates in higher space yield processes. The labor cost dilution effect can be considerable. This is especially important for the profitable production of commoditized products where there are many competitors and the customer makes the decision solely on price and delivery. Low margin products where raw material costs are large and relatively fixed and labor is the only cost that can be shaved are good candiates for larger scale and higher space yield.

But the chemist must be wary of certain effects when attempting process intensification. In general, process intensification involves increasing some kind of energy in the vessel. Process intensification through increased concentration will have the effect of increasing the amount of energy evolution per kilogram of reaction mixture.

Energy accumulation in a reactor is one of the most important things to consider when attempting to increase space yield. It is crucial to assure that process changes do not result in the accumulation of hazardous energy.

Energy accumulation in a reactor occurs in several ways. The accumulation of unreacted reagents is a form of stored energy. The danger here is in the potential for a runaway reaction. Accumulated reagents can react to evolve heat leading to an accelerated rates and eventually may open further exothermic pathways of decomposition. As the event ensues, the temperature rises, overwhelming the cooling capacity of the reactor. The reactor pressure rises, accelerating the event further. At some point the rupture disk bursts venting some of the reactor contents. Hopefully the pressure venting will result in cooling of the vessel contents and depressurizing the vessel. But it may not. If the pressure acceleration is greater than the deceleration afforded by the vent system, then the reactor pressure will continue to a pressure spike. This is where the weak components may fail. Hopefully, nobody is standing nearby. Survivors will report a bang followed by a rushing sound followed by a bigger bang and BLEVE-type flare if the system suffers a structural failure.

Energy accumulation can manifest in less obvious ways. Here is an example. Assume a spherical reaction volume. As the radius of the sphere increases, the surface area of the sphere increases as the square of the radius. The volume increases as the cube of the radius. So, on scale-up the volume of reaction mixture (and heat generation potential) will increase faster than the heat transfer surface area. The ratios are different for cylindrical volumes, but the principle is the same. Generally the adjustment of feed rates will take care of this matter in semi-batch reactions. Batch reactions where all of the reagents are added at once are where the unwary and unlucky can get into big trouble.

Process intensification via increased concentration may have deleterious effects on viscosity and mixing. This is especially true if slurries are produced and is even worse if a low boiling solvent is used. Slurries result in poor mixing and poor heat transfer. Low boiling solvents may be prone to cavitation with strong agitation, exacerbating the heat transfer problem. Slurry solids provide nucleation sites for the initiation of cavitation.  Cavitation is difficult to detect as well. The instinct to increase agitator speed to “help” the mixing may only make matters worse by increasing the shear and thus the onset of cavitation.

Denser slurries resulting from process intensification are more problematic to transfer and filter as well. Ground gained from higher concentrations may be lost in subsequent materials handling problems. Filtration is where the whole thing can hang up. It is important for the process development chemist to pay attention to materials handling issues before commiting to increased slurry densities. Crow is best eaten while it is still warm.

Heads on a Stick

As one of those poindexters who actually likes to watch Book TV on C-SPAN-2, I blundered into an interview of Naomi Prins. The host was Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Prins is presently a Senior Fellow at Demos and has had careers at Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns.

Prins has a good deal of interesting insight into how securities are engineered from subprime loans and stamped with ratings. What stands out is how artificial securities are as an asset. It’s like putting a step ladder on a canoe. The view is good, but evenually you’re going to get wet.

Securities are synthesized from dung and straw, drenched in investment sauce, and then nestled in decorative tins by white gloved MBA castrati to afford a “product”. Naturally, banks and ratings agencies assure us that the rating on the security is meaningful. After all, who is more sober and conservative than a banker?

Perhaps investment banking as it is now practiced should be regarded as a pathological condition- a form of predatory, sociopathic behavior worthy of a psychiatric profile? Investment banking is a profession dedicated to the proposition that the mere repackaging and skimming of the wealth of others is the desired outcome. It is a bubble industry specializing in puffery and deception.

My libertarian friends assure me that the free market place is the most natural and efficient form of economic intercourse. Of course, the problem is that there isn’t a substantially free market anywhere. We have regulated markets because some people invariably game the system at the expense of others, resulting in a convulsive discharge of legislation.

One could take a Darwinistic view and say that the victims of investment shenanigans are to blame for being greedy and uninformed. There is truth in caveat emptor, but one of the reasons we have civilization is to buffer out the harshness of life. How do you protect the greedy and uninformed from the greedy and deceitful? It is the eternal problem.

The most despicable part of the 2008-9 financial collapse is the lack of accountability on the part of the skunks who invented and promulgated the unstable investment devices.  Their heads should be impaled on sticks and planted in the financial districts for all to see. Figuratively, I suppose.

Rhodium Coins Now Available

It has finally happened. The Cohen Mint in NYC began offering a Rhodium coin in May 2009. This silvery PGM, once familiar only to a few Poindexters in the catalyst lab, has now become one of the coins of the investor realm. Available as a one gram coin, the initial price came in below $100 ea. Today, as Rh bullion prices jet upwards, these coins should be following the market upwards as demand for automotive catalytic converters inevitably rises.

The Cohen Mint also produces palladium and platinum coins in small but affordably weighted denominations.

I cannot estimate the relative merits of hoarding Rh or Pd relative to Au, Ag, and Pt, other than to say that these two metals seem to be somewhat less volatile in pricing relative to the three more widely traded precious metals.

Gold, silver, and platinum are substantially placed in the jewelry market as well as the investment market as the physical metal and paper instruments. This kind of exposure to global trading makes their pricing a bit twitchy and subject to global neurosis.

Given the scarcity of Indium and Neodymium, I wouldn’t be surprised to see coins made from them. Or at least as foils wrapped around a chocolate center. \:-)

Libertarians and Epidemics

If the USA were more substantially libertarian in construction and demeanor, how would we respond to the arrival of an epidemic or pandemic of some nasty pathogen like swine flu? If the USA were decentralized into quanta of individual market units, each responsible for his/her own well being, how could the spread of contagion be averted?

Would a libertarian republic be philosophically opposed to collectivist activity like combining resources to marshal a defense against a virus. Or, would the Austrian-school economists brush off the event as nothing more than a Malthusian disturbance in the direction of a much needed equilibrium between resources and population? If you cannot afford to protect yourself, then you are lazy or sadly unlucky. In any case, you’re on your own.

Would a Libertarian system first act to protect property and guns? Would libertarian economists issue a statement condemning collectivism and promoting the rights of individuals to buy as much Lysol, duct tape, plastic drop cloths, and surgical masks as the market will allow? Perhaps a Libertarian President (whatever that means) would put a team of economists on a pandemic, or better yet, the lowest bidding epidemiologists available from Craigs list?

Libertarians make a good deal of noise about the horrors of taxation and their unflinching admiration for the genius of the marketplace, property, and the right to stockpile guns and ammo.  I agree, we’re paying too much in taxes. Government is way too big. And the dynamics of the market do provide lots of cool stuff for better living. True enough.

But the market is like a stomach (I had a better analogy, but it was rather unwholesome). It only knows that it is hungry. The stomach has no brain. The stomach only wants more. The stomach did not invent antibiotics, polyethylene, Buicks, antacid, jet engines, or bikinis. But the stomach did facilitate the invention of each of these items. We need a market mentality, but we also need an overarching sense of direction. We need a market that can sense and avoid driving off a Malthusian cliff.

Civilization is about infrastructure. And part of the infrastructure that the country as a whole can provide is biotechnology.  Biotechnology was not developed by Warren Buffett or Ronald Reagan or the legions of celebrated MBA’s. It was slowly developed by publically financed university institutions over many years of apparently irrelevant research projects. University educated scientists were hired by private and public corporations who began to find ways of marketing biomedical technology.  It evolved into molecular biology and medicine and eventually commercialized as a result of front funding by millions of skeptical and myopic taxpayers over several generations. Yes, the market has a big part in this in terms of the rational distribution of goods.

As a result of all of the initial “collectivism” through publically funded science, we have a first class infrastructure (the CDC) that is capable of monitoring the onset and progress of contagious diseases. This system funded originally by the public is able to mobilize vaccines and small molecule medicines to prevent suffering and the spread of disease.  It is able to coordinate efforts and resources to benefit even the chronically irritable Libertarians.

Static in the Attic

Some scattered thoughts and links, each too small for a single post-

Given that we are near planting season for 2009, I wonder how the loan picture is for farmers wanting to borrow money for the upcoming crop. It’d be a form of catastrophy if money was too tight for farmers to buy seed, fertilizer, and diesel.

One of my favorite reference books is by Francis X. McConville, The Pilot Plant Real Book, 2nd Edition, FXM Engineering and Design, 2007;  ISBN 0-9721769-2-6.

Glass blowing supplies are available here. Here is some coursework.

The Very Large Array (VLA) sits 50 or so miles west of Socorro, NM, just south of Hwy 60. A few hours east on Hwy 60, across White Sands, is Roswell, NM.

Atomic tourists should know that the Trinity site is open only twice per year: once in April and once in October.

Godwins Law.

A new POS (warning- really bad language!).

Brain Draino

The Obama administration famously put restructions on executive pay, capping at US$500k for institutions receiving TARP money. Naturally, there has been some shameless howling from the Masters of the Universe. Who? You know, the geniuses who were instrumental in birthing this finance mess.

There has been some wagging of tongues and tut tutting in regard to the problems of living on $500k per year on the upper East Side of Manhattan. Mathematically, this may in fact be true.  But I would offer that this is the market supplying pushback towards equilibrium. If the swanky life in Manhattan is not feasible on the meager sum of $500k, then the banks need to relocate. Banks should consider the kind of lifestyle an executive could have in Manhattan, Kansas, or Little Rock on $500k. Or York, NE. We got yer swank right here!

I love this description of financiers by David Gillen at the NYT-

Banking executives and recruiters say talented financiers — the driven, hyper-numerate, slightly ruthless ones with a preternatural knack for making money in bull markets and bear — are always in high demand. NY Times, Feb 21, 2009.

It sounds to me like the finance industry needs a therapeutic brain drain or a cerebral colonic.

Plea from China

I don’t know what others are experiencing, but I am flooded with desperate email pitches from Chinese chemical manufacturers- “Please, let’s make cooperation!”  Everything from solvents to generic drugs.

A receding tide beaches all boats.

Update:  Just got an offer for bulk Vinblastine Sulfate. Golly, I think I’ll decline. The last thing a guy needs is a few kg of that stuff sitting in a cabinet.

Make or Buy? Gaussling’s 11th Epistle to the Bohemians.

The most important reaction in chemistry is the one in which you transform chemicals into money. Some chemicals convert into a lot of money per kg, others not so much. The kind of money you want to focus on is profit. Just turning cash over at cost wears thin rapidly and is hazardous to your career. At the end of the day, after you’ve paid the raw mat vendors, payroll, and the feds, you want to have a steaming heap of luchre left over as profit.

At some point in the game, everyone in fine chemical manufacturing realizes that you can’t make everything in-house. There are good reasons to consider making as many intermediates as you can. When you buy an intermediate, the vendors price (cost + profit) becomes the cost you plug into the economics. Optimally, you might be able to make the material cheaper than buying it … eventually. But some raw materials are deceptively simple looking. A company can rack up a lot of brain damage and wasted time trying to make certain kinds of materials outside of your skill set.

We used to joke that at some point in process development, you have to shoot the chemist and get on with scale-up. Often, the decision to make-or-buy an intermediate gets to the table only after you try to make it. In process development, it is important to identify the make-or-buy decisions as early as possible. This can save valuable time. While you may end up spending more per unit mass for the material, not having to make it is equivalent to opening up extra capacity in your facility. Ideally, your want precious reactor/equipment hours spent on the highest value added steps. With each successive step, the value of the intermediate becomes greater.

If your make-or-buy decision revolves around a known item of commerce, then the economics and scheduling is relatively easy. You will have to settle on specifications, delivery schedule, shipment details, and pricing. If the material is not TSCA listed, then you will have to get the vendor moving early on a filing with the EPA, if they are in the USA. If you intend to import a non-TSCA listed fine chemical, not for pharma, ag, food, or other covered use, then the importer of record is responsible for the TSCA paperwork. This can take a few months of lead time.

But if the compound is novel and/or proprietary, then it is instantly much more complex. Not only do you have  to deal with the EPA on TSCA filing, but you have to find a vendor who is willing and able to ramp up a new process. They will need specs, projected delivery information, an agreeable price, and quite possibly a lined-out process and analytical methods. If the vendor has available capacity, this might happen as quickly as 3-4 months. More likely than not, this can take 6-9 months.

If your raw material is part of a critical technology or major account, then you may have to consider dual sourcing. If one plant goes down or the quality or delivery drifts beyond what is acceptable, then you still have one facility that can deliver. And, if you have two vendors, you can start a dandy little bidding war between them for your business. Many companies require their purchasing managers to qualify two vendors for crucial materials. You can argue that you should always have two vendors, but many times the amount of business the material feeds into is too small to bother with.

Chemical manufacturing is much more than reaction chemistry. A chemist in manufacturing can find him/herself involved in many kinds of work.   Regulations, chemistry, process safety, engineering, packaging issues, IP, marketing, and process economics add up to the knowledge set that a chemist needs to acquire while heading up the career ladder.

Reactivity and Risk. Gaussling’s 10th Epistle to the Bohemians.

A chemical plant performing synthesis is a place where the materials in use are purposely selected for certain attributes of instability. Chemical stability refers to the tendancy of a substance to remain unchanged when exposed to some kind of stimulus. That stimulus may be exposure to heat energy, mechanical shock, or a more precise chemical attack on particular functional groups. Unstable substances have a low threshold to change. Stable substances require more stimulus to cause a change in composition.

Substances that are extremely stable are often not very useful in near-ambient temperature chemical synthesis, i.e., saturated hydrocarbons, metal sulfates, silica, etc.  The lack of lower temperature reactivity (say, up to 200 C) can be compensated for by application of high temperatures. Petroleum refineries take full advantage of high temperature reaction chemistry to alter the composition of otherwise stable hydrocarbons.

We choose stable substances for duty as solvents, diluents, carriers, etc., precisely because of their non-changeability or stability. “Inert” solvents allow chemists to bring molecules into solution for selective transformations. Of course, we all know that most solvents have some influence on the course of a transformation, the point is that we can transform solute materials without the fuss of altering the solvent too.

Chemical synthesis requires the manipulation of reactivity (and therefore stability) to perform useful transformations. Without well placed instability on a molecule, there cannot be efficient, directed synthesis. It is the job of the synthesis chemist to apply the knowledge of reactivity.

Because of the inherent instability of reactive and flammable materials, chemical plants must require that certain behaviors, procedures, and knowledge be set into a formal structure. Actions and conditions must give predictable consequences. This structure is comprised of a set of standard- operating procedures, equipment, test methods, and safety requirements.

It seems silly to go to the trouble of detailing the merits of running a safe plant, but it is worth pointing out the layers of requirements on an operating plant. 

  1. Preservation of life, health, and the environment
  2. Compliance with federal, state, and local regulations
  3. To provide for the uninterrupted flow of goods and services in the conduct of business
  4. To qualify for affordable business insurance
  5. To be a good neighbor and stable source of gainful employment for all concerned

A company in the business of manufacture is exposed to many kinds of liability. A chemical manufacturing plant is subject to modes of failure and liability that set it apart somewhat. 

One result of chemical manufacture that sets it apart from other forms of industry is the combination of unknown risk and dread fear. For communities in the vicinity of chemical operations, fear comes from the combination of the unknown as new risks, unknown effects, or delayed effects with the dreaded possibility of catastrophic or fatal consequences, inequitable consequences, involuntary effects, and high risk to future generations (see: Perilous Progress: Managing the Hazards of Technology, Edited by Kates, Hohenemser, and Kasperson, 1985, Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, p 108. ISBN 0-8133-7025-6).

While the neighbors of a furniture factory may be annoyed by the presence of a nearby woodworking shop, it is unlikely that the neighbors will be stirred into existential dread by its presence. The hazards of a woodworking plant are easy to imagine and therefore, easier to rank into the grand list of life’s dangers.

Chemical and nuclear risk perception score at the extreme ranges of risk perception. Both domains involve an agent of potential harm that is poorly understood by most people. Ionizing radiation is inherently destructive to tissues, but the exact relationship between quality and dose to risk is fuzzy at low level exposure. And because it cannot be sensed directly, fear of it’s presence can induce disturbing excursions of imagination and dread.

Fear of chemicals is widespread in the industrialized world. The downside to chemical operations has been immortalized by numerous well known industrial calamities like Love Canal (Hooker Chemical), Bhopal, numerous dioxin fiascos, PCB’s, or occupational exposure to asbestos or chromium (VI). There are a great many chemical items of commerce that are unavoidably hazardous to health.

Because of the risks associated with toxicity or exposure to hazardous energy from machines, chemicals, radiation, heat, noise, gravity, sharp implements, etc., the many layers of government have established agencies and a regulatory structure to diminish risk exposure to workers specifically and citizens generally.

The purpose of the chemical industry is to produce goods and services for people who want or need the value of it’s output. Like the ad says- “We don’t make the surfboard, we make it better”. Well, making the surfboard better inevitably requires that certain kinds of hazards be unleashed and managed. The expectation that hazardous materials can be eliminated in manufacturing is a fantasy. The manipulation of instability is inherent to chemical transformation. Zeroing out hazards has to come from the demand side of the market.