Category Archives: Economics

Eviction Action on CNN

On CNN this morning I happened to see a story on mortgage defaults in the Atlanta area. As the reporter spoke of the 7,000 evictions scheduled for February in Atlanta, we watched two police officers enter a house with service revolvers drawn.

No doubt there is a backstory to this particular event. All states have extensive statutes covering the resolution of landlord/tenant disputes. The statutes governing lender/mortgagee disputes is certainly full of delays in consideration of due process as well. So, the scene of the State storming into a home- through the agency of the police- is at the end of a procedural chain of events leading to forcible eviction.

But you have to ask the question- Is this heavy handed treatment of mortgagees necessary?  Are the police storming into homes with firearms drawn routinely? Maybe the mortgage lenders should be forced to go into the home and do it themselves? Maybe we should herd a pack of mortgage brokers door-to-door to do the dirty work.  This includes the industry finance geniuses and their pencil-necked B-School professors .

Evicting deadbeats is one thing.  I have done this distasteful job myself sometime back when I was stupid enough to have a rental property. It’s disturbing and ugly at the very best. But to have this finance fiasco end in such a way is a disgrace and the ethical-midgets and business cretins who devised and executed this negligent finance scheme need to see, taste, and smell the trouble they initiated. They should be dragged out of their office suites, tarred and feathered, and run out of the business community, or at least tatooed with a big red I for Imbecile on their foreheads and banned from finance for life. 

The borrowers who signed their names to such instruments should be forced to take a remedial math class where they must demonstrate a knowledge of compound interest. Exponents, people! Exponents!

Chinese Cyberwar and US Interests

An intelligence report posted by International Relations and Security Network (ISN) at the Center for Security Studies at ETH in Zurich reveals what appears to be a widening and systematic program of cyber attacks on US government data infrastructure by elements within the military organ of China.

Rachel Kesselman at ISN Security Watch writes-

According to a 2006 US Defense Department report, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) began developing information warfare reserves and militia units in 2005, often incorporating them into broader exercises and training. The establishment of this elite Chinese unit is evident by a likely increase in sophisticated attacks on high-risk targets.

Reports in Chinese newspapers also suggest that the Chinese are actively attempting to establish a cybermilitia. A Time Magazine article entitled “Enemies at The Firewall” purports that the military has put forth a concerted effort to carry out nationwide recruiting campaigns in hopes of discovering the country’s most brilliant hackers. 

Like so many Americans, I live in a bubble. The extent and brazenness of the activity reported by ISN and other sources only serves to stimulate the paranoid cortex of my brain.

What seems likely is that most nations are engaged in systematic probing of the data resources of the upper tier states. Chinese enthusiasm for this activity may or may not be exceptional among the nuclear states. Certainly, computer spycraft is nothing new and that China practices it shouldn’t be a surprise.

Henry Kissinger once remarked that nation states do not have friends. They only act in parallel with states having similar interests. In this vein, we should not be lulled into thinking that China, or any other state for that matter, is our friend. China is certainly not our friend. The US is a fountain of wealth that they aim to tap through government backed market activity.

Economic idealogues in the US prattle on tirelessly about the virtues of the free market and the merits of regulatory deconstruction. But on the global scale, markets are unavoidably tied to regulatory constructs as a result of notions about security and dominance.

Just try to get a shipment of anything to China or to South Africa or into the USA. There is no free market. Every single aspect of a transaction is highly regulated or controlled by some apparatus that is highly controlled. Tariff codes, tariffs, shipping reglations, wire transfers, and customs clearance- the reality of a free market barely extends past the canopy of a fruitstand in a farmers market.

I believe that the US should cast off this free market puritanism and act in a manner so as to protect its economic interests. Yes, we’d like to keep as free a market as possible. But American culture, not government, has to be the locus of change. American culture should de-emphasize its fascination with pure wealth and look askance at the sterile detachment many influential businessmen have with regard to their profit motive. We want to be profitable. But we do not want to hand over the keys to our technological toolshed for a quick buck. If we cannot afford to manufacture here, there should be an expectation that we try to innovate around the economic barriers rather than just resort to abandonment.

We should be wary about using the language of friendship with China. This nation has its own sense of where it is headed and has become quite refractory to admonitions and paternalistic brow beatings by the US and others.  It has its own momentum and will do what is in its best interest. Americans should do what is in their best interest as well. That is, avoid trading the farm to foreign interests who have much more discipline with their attention span. 

America’s Achilles heel seems to be the inability to be patient and plan for results over the long term. We live in a NOW culture. Advances in computer technology has only engorged our expectation that we can and should have everything now. The mortgage and credit crises are only the latest examples of this.

American culture has gotten fat and lazy. Our rotund wastelines are only the exterior. Within our culture is a kind of bacchanalian sloth that has drifted like a fog into our collective yard party. Everyone is too busy eating and drinking to notice that the greed-heads have set the house on fire.

GOP Economics- Cash for Election Year!!

It was just announced that Congress and the Whitehouse have reached an agreement that will flood 117 million households (or families) with $600 to $1200 in mad money tax rebates. It supposedly amounts to 150 gigabucks.

Time to invest in Apple and Disney Resorts, because a lot of new iPods are going to be worn on trips to Disney theme parks. Same idea with flat screen TV’s.

Gold sounds like a good choice on which to spend the money.

Warren Buffett and Jim “Mad Money” Cramer see this latest Wall Street fiasco as a rat that will eventually pass through the python. 

While Wall Street sorts itself out, the rest of us need to understand what the Finance MBA’s are learning in B-School. The finance geniuses wizards seem to have an endless supply of schemes for brittle financial instruments. Yet another house of cards has collapsed. 

Deficit spending and the low value of US currency are huge problems that the GOP should be held accountable for before Bush the Lesser slinks out of DC. Where does Bush think the money will come from with his rebate? Obviously, it’s from the presses at the treasury or debt in the form of T-Bills.

Question of the day: What value does a country that is busy exporting its industry derive from a devalued currency? 

Aurum Oracle, What Say You?

Watching the market take on water like a leaky Liberian freighter, I’m wondering about the wisdom leaving my assets in the 401(k) plan.  It’s a fact that the market goes up and the market goes down. The question is, what kind of games do the fund managers play as share prices fall? Do they sell-off many low priced shares for fewer shares of stronger stocks? If so, how does that affect your recovery as the market strengthens? I don’t know. Sounds like its time to understand this better.

Gold has been steadily increasing in value since at least June of 03 (near the limit of my horizon). Since stock prices started to nose downward in early 4Q2007, the slope of gold price growth increased. The inverse price trend with investor confidence in stocks is normal behaviour for gold.

But looking at the upward trend in gold prices this decade, I’m left to wonder if there isn’t some fundamental change happening. If the price is rising due to global demand, who is out there steadily driving up prices? Are there big players who are in the know?  And what are the consequences for individuals?

Skeptical of Hydrogen as a Mass Market Fuel

If one examines the composition of propellants and explosives, what you find is that the successful and desirable compositions are those substances that decompose to produce many more moles of decomposition products than moles of starting materials.  As a result, modern propellant compositions have not just a preponderance of nitrogen atoms, but also more skeletal C-N or N-N linkages that replace C-C linkages. Dinitrogen as a decomposition product is more atom efficient in producing PV work than is CO2 or H2O if only because a molar volume of N2 contains only 2 moles of atoms as opposed to 3. 

Designers of explosives and propellants are principally concerned with doing work (W=Fd=PV) against the environment. It could be moving soil, forming a shock wave, or a accelerating a projectile out of a tube. Some particular mass needs to be accelerated over a distance and extracting the last bit of work from the expanding gases is desirable.

PV work is performed by evolving lots of -kJ/mol from heat of formation and arranging for the expanding gas to do something useful. In the case of propellants, dinitrogen formation yields a healthy heat of formation produced from making a triple bond. Hot gases want to expand and move whatever they are in contact with. The more molar volumes of gas generated, the more work that can be done. 

Some of the above line of thinking applies to the combustion of hydrocarbons as well, though the necessary formation of triatomic gases lowers the atom efficiency. The combination of C=O and H-O bonds being formed leads to a net evolution of heat compared to heat absorbed in breaking C-C, C-H, and O-O bonds. Properly chosen fuels and oxidizers provide a net increase in moles of gaseous products leading to an increase in molar gas volume.

Now, consider the case of the combustion of hydrogen and oxygen to produce water: 2 H2 + O2 –> 2 HOH.   In this reaction three moles of gas react to produce only 2 moles of  gas. There is a net loss in molar volume of 1/3 at constant presssure.  Obviously H2 reacts violently with O2 to produce PV work.  Hydrogen can be used to power an Otto cycle engine. But the net loss of molar volume across the reaction would appear to be a drawback to this system compared to others. The question I have is, how does this figure into the overall efficiency of H2 as a fuel?? 

Hydrogen is known to be problematic in engines due to what is called a cooling effect.

One of the key issues to consider with hydrogen economics is the fact that every last molecule has to be manufactured from hydrogen rich feedstocks using energy input. Hydrocarbons have to be cracked in some way, water has to be electrolyzed, or metals have to be oxidized with acid to produce dihydrogen. 

Given that H2 has to be manufactured by cracking hydrocarbon resources or electrolysis of water, does it make sense to use H2 as an automotive fuel? Why not just combust the hydrocarbon that was cracked to give up the H2 in the first place? Better yet, combust H2 at a centrally located gas turbine power plant and distribute the energy as electricity.

Hydrogen isn’t easily liquified (like propane) and the compressed gas requires heavy containment. 

With xtal ball in hand, the more I peer into the next 50 years, the more the future appears to be electrically powered. Todays hydrogen and ethanol schemes found in the popular media result from our collective unwillingness to address the real problem: How do we modify our behaviour to consume fewer kilowatt-hours (or BTU’s) per capita?

The answer is that we need to live closer to work, drive fewer miles, divert fewer hydrocarbons into disposable products, and generally consume fewer kg of resources per capita. Hydrocarbons are a very valuable resource- we’re fighting in the middle east over access to oil output in that part of the world. 

Petroleum distillates have a wonderful combination of attributes that make them valuable. Petroleum distillates have high energy density, they are liquid in ordinary conditions and hence can be pumped and atomized, they offer a choice of flash points, and are reasonably safe for people to handle. This is a splendid set of properties! We should be more appreciative and take better care of how we use it.

For Americans, a glimse of the future can be had for the price of a plane ticket to Japan or Europe. Higher population density, smaller portions of most things, and a larger fraction of income spent on energy.

Boiling the Frog. US Export of “Chemical Problematics”.

Recent announcements by some of the big players in chemical manufacturing are stunning in their magnitude and implication for our western hemisphere. Like the movement of tectonic plates, business landmasses are shifting and grinding their way to other parts of the world.

Last summer AstraZeneca announced that it will leave manufacturing all together. According to C&EN, Merck is downsizing its staff by 7000 jobs and reducing its number of sites by 20 %. Pfizer is reportedly closing or otherwise trimming off 29 sites.

Recently, Dow announced its departure from commodity chemicals with the upcoming US$9.5 billion joint venture with Petroleum Industrial Chemicals (PIC) of Kuwait.

Some of this migration to the far side of the world will place the companies in a better market position to compete with rising demand in the distant corners of the world. Many of the players are already multinational in structure and have existing units elsewhere, so changes amount to consolidation.

What concerns me is the extent to which R&D and product development is being transferred off-shore. Like the frog in slowly warming water, no alarm is noted because from moment to moment the comfort level changes only slightly. But eventually, the warm water becomes hot and the inattentive frog gets cooked.  It is hard to escape the notion the US and EU are the frog in a warming pot of water.

Outsourcing is a choice, not a law.  A company has to choose to outsource rather than find other options. But to be fair, a company has its hands tied in many ways by regulatory or competitive constraints that are hard to contend with economically. 

Compliance with the confusing web of overlapping jurisdictions and increasingly harsh regulations pertaining to the manufacture, transport, and consumption of chemicals is wearing down the willingness of US companies to continue to manufacture in North America. Instead, we export “Chemical Problematics”.

A chemical product can become problematic in several ways- 1) commoditization, 2) patent expiration, 3) liability blooming, 4) raw material scarcity, and 5) regulatory compliance costs. 

In the life cycle of a successful product, it is inevitable that competition will discover the market and find a way to supply competing goods and services. This is commoditization. Eventually, you will lose control of your market exclusivity and others will set up their lemonade stand next to yours and sell for a nickel cheaper.

A major issue for pharma is the near term expiration of patents protecting highly profitable products. High cost manufacturing can be sustained by suitably profitable products. Exclusivity is the keystone that keeps the entry from collapsing. But when the patents expire, the Huns storm the gate and take over with lower priced generics.

What I call liability blooming is a circumstance wherein an existing product suddenly becomes the focus of some liability problem. It can be a drug that suddenly starts showing bad side effects, or it can be a product that has come into the  radar of the regulatory agencies.  Materials that carry a penalty for their use in terms of liability exposure are difficult or impossible to continue using. If an end product carries a legal liability, it is probably dead as a product. But if materials used in its manufacture- but not final composition- develop liability issues, manufacturing under the current regulatory environment can become prohibitively expensive.

Raw material scarcity is becoming a widespread problem for US manufacturers. As outsourcing becomes more prevalent, key raw materials for a given product may become unavailable in the US. As long as one can source the materials, this is not such a bad problem. But what about strateging substances needed for national defense? I have spoken with government procurement people who are increasingly having to resort to off-shore vendors for defense-related products and materials. Electronic products have a high reliance on some rather exotic substances and national defense is increasingly reliant on such technology. Indium and neodymium are examples of elements that are becoming quite scarce and whose loss from the market would have a high impact on many products. 

For any growing chemical company, the first real expense of regulatory compliance is for staffing. Increasingly, regulatory compliance requires a staff of specialists who serve as internal watchdogs for non-compliance and manage compliance programs that trail documentation much like a cable ship pays out cable into the murky ocean deep. 

Chemical products vary in their regulatory compliance paperwork according to type. Chemicals that are not used by the public out in the open like pesticides may be generally less complex to manage. TSCA is for materials that do not meet the criteria for food, drug, or pesticide use. Compounds that are used in B2B markets and will never be darkened by the shadow of consumers are still subject to complex TSCA regulations. But TSCA registry is not forever.  The ever shifting sands of TSCA registry may place a product into further examination by EPA if a new application is contemplated.  The all-seeing-eye of compliance managers may be strained as SNUR’s affecting product use can show up in the Federal Register at any time.

There are lots of good reasons not to start a chemical business in the US these days. Public or private companies are increasingly in competition with nationalized business entities abroad. Petroleum, petroleum products, and defense in particular are markets where western companies are having to compete with nationalized organizations that can swing a big money stick as well as influence national policy.

The US and EU are sliding into a Nanny State mentality microgoverned by those schooled in the Precautionary Principle.  Timid acolytes shuffling along the hallways of regulatory agencies and cock-sure MBA’s strutting like roosters in their corporate headquarters are independently guiding US culture to an epoch of de-industrialization. 

Catalyst Recovery. Gaussling’s 6th Epistle to the Bohemians.

In catalyst development literature it is often stated that the particular catalyst under study can be recovered for re-use with full or nearly full activity.  I have heard this proclamation at meetings and in conversation as well.  Having spent a bit of my adult life analyzing process economics, I would like to comment on this matter. 

The world of chemical processing can be coarsely divided into two regimes- continuous and batch processing.  Since my hands-on continuous processing experience amounts to less than a year of time, I’ll limit my comments to batch processing. 

In this post I’ll define catalyst recycling as an operation wherein a catalytically active substance is recovered from a process stream and made available for another run. There are a great many catalysts and a great many applications, so generalizations are hazardous.  Nonetheless, there are a few generalizations to be made.

For a batch liquid-phase process performed in a multipurpose reactor, there are operations that are common to all processes.  Charging the reactor with raw materials, heating or cooling, agitation, reflux/distillation, discharging the contents, and cleaning. All of these operations consume resources and plant time. Generally speaking, any change that reduces consumption without harming the product could be considered a process improvement.

For catalyst recycling to qualify as a process improvement, some kind of consumption would have to be reduced over the useful lifetime of the material: i.e., reduction of time and/or materials. Obviously, reuse of a catalyst holds the potential to reduce the consumption expense of the catalyst over the course of the campaign. 

Before we draw any conclusions, it is useful to review the requirements put upon any material that might be used in a process. In bulk processing, raw materials are obtained from suppliers who have the necessary experience to provide the material.  But of equal importance, the vendor must have the necessary quality control mechanisms in place to warrant that the delivered product meets the promised specifications.

For instance, if you use butyllithium, you must be assured that all of the raw materials going into the process- reagents, solvents, etc.- meet a low water specification.  You have to know that the aryl bromide you are using isn’t contaminated with HBr or a polybrominated side product. There has to be assurance that all raw materials going into the pot meet some minimum purity.  A chemical processing company must know how to manage change.

Bulk processing is all about stability and predictability. You can’t rely simply on having ordered the proper grade of raw material. You need a certificate of analysis showing that the composition of the lot meets your in-house spec. When a vendor issues a cert, they are warranting the purity and accepting some risk as a result of sending bad product.

Management of change is a business methodology compelling an organization to adopt a standard procedure for the evaluation and approval of chemical process changes.  For instance, just because the chemists say that a change should be made to a scaled-up process doesn’t mean that it has to happen tomorrow if ever. The proposed change has to go through a protocol that exposes it to safety and economic scrutiny.  Frankly, it also spreads the potential blame for mishaps and economic disasters, so others have motivation to evaluate the process from a fresh view and sign-off.

The re-use of a catalyst brings forth the possibility that the activity of the catalyst could be altered in some way from one run to the next. There could be a downward trend in activity or some kind of variability. This means that a reused catalyst charged into the reactor could be a different catalyst from one run to the next. Potentially, what you saved in catalyst costs you might lose in extra plant hours or lower yield due to degraded performance or from outright process upsets.

Naturally, any kind of catalyst recycle has to be researched and understood by the R&D group and by the cost accountants.  Catalyst recycling will involve an operation to retrieve the material from the product or raffinate streams and to prepare it for the next run. Stable activity will have to be demonstrated, preferably under the influence of a variety of off-normal conditions.

Someone- a chemist or engineer- will have to sit down and do the calculations to see if there is a net benefit to the re-use of the catalyst against the backdrop of diminished performance, variability, or added operation costs. 

The point is that catalyst recycling isn’t automatically desirable. A recycling scheme that requires many labor hours to purify the catalyst may sour the benefit of the action. Another issue that may arise is the matter of validation of the re-used catalyst.  The company will have to decide if or when activity validation is necessary.  For a pot full of expensive precursor, a wink and a grin from the analysts may not be enough. A qualification run at the bench may be needed.

Here are my favorite catalyst attributes for batch processing- 1) high turnover number, 2) selective, 3) cheap enough to use once and send to waste disposal, 4) not a PGM (Platinum Group Metal)- PGM’s are subject to large market price variations, and 5) doesn’t contain one of the bad actors that trigger EPA thuggery or public protests- Hg, Cd, Cr(VI), etc. Metals are forever.

Catalyst recycle makes no sense, of course, in a one-time process run. A wise operator will calculate a price to cover the catalyst cost. But it may make sense if a plant is to start an extended run of batches, or if the catalyst is rare or expensive. Sometimes recycle has merit.  The point is that a sober cost calculation should be made prior to the implementation of recycle schemes.

At the beginning of the article I stated that some generalizations were possible. I will modify that in saying that PGM’s in the catalyst may necessitate the recovery, though not necessarily the re-use, of the metal for return credit to the supplier.

My Dear Libertarian Friends

Something I have learned while working alongside fundamentalist libertarians is this: Libertarianism is a political philosophy that seems to provide a framework for the justification of isolationism and selfishness. It is an economic theory that conveniently validates the inherent stinginess of its adherents. It has an appealing and complex theoretical basis. But like all economic theories, is idealistic and requires universal alignment by the population.

That being said, I agree that the US could use a healthy dose of libertarian pragmatism these days. Government is  far too big and too many resources are being channeled into foreign adventures while the national debt accrues.  Our elected leaders resemble an angry mob with a credit card throwing debt bombs.

But when I hear libertarians talk about their resentment at sharing resources in the form of taxation (or, being forced to share their resources), I can’t help but wonder what is really behind this restrained anger.  All of my libertarian friends have benefited enormously from the infrastructure provided by the pooling of resources. They drive to work on the interstate highways, fly safely in controlled airspace, benefit from the safety provided by the military, learned to read from public school teachers, use the system of currency for their wellbeing, flush their toilets thanks to public sanitary systems, eat safely thanks to the local health department (food safety is a big one), have drugs to treat their illnesses with the help of NIH, and on and on.

Of course there are problems with all of our public institutions, some of them quite serious. But the marketplace is just as prone to corruption as the government. I think that libertarians want to get off the merry-go-round and disconnect from the manditory and expensive socialization that keeps creeping into our lives. I do too sometimes. But it seems painfully obvious that our path to this point has not been all bad and our public institutions have contributed to our stability and well being.

All organizations work better under structural tension- the balance of forces. Libertarianism is a useful counterpoint to liberal socialization and conservative militarism. Like the three legs of a stool, these competing political influences can serve the betterment of our society and keep each other in check.

The Aldrich Distribution Machine

It was interesting to note in the recent C&EN report on the Top 50 chemical companies that among the most profitable was Sigma-Aldrich (SIAL), or colloquially, Aldrich.  Sigma-Aldrich controls an expanding complex of companies all targeted for more specialized domains of chemical technology.  Anyone who has received an invoice from Aldrich would not find their profitability surprising.   But what most customers may not realize is the extent of relatively transparent infrastructure that has been put into place to enable this profitability. 

Aldrich is not profitable merely because their prices are, well, high. Aldrich is profitable for some subtle reasons as well. Easiest to recognize is their shrewd choice of market.  Aldrich’s customer list includes nearly every research and academic chemistry and biology department in much of the world, or at least anywhere FedEx delivers. What is important about the R&D market is certainly not the volume of chemicals each research group orders- 5 g here, 100 g there, a liter of this, or 50 mL of that.  Rather, it is the constant buzz of orders coming in for premium grade (and premium priced) chemicals virtually all of the time.  While each order may be modest relative to bulk chemical transactions, a constant stream of orders begins to add up. 

What is shrewd about focusing on the R&D supply market is this:  Over time R&D money is relatively constant. The big academic and institute money is federal in origin and as such tends to be reliable in supply. Out in the world, projects start and projects end continuously.  It may not be reliable to an individual researcher, but overall, the monies are dispersed every year and someone out there gets them. So from a marketing view, the players in the game may change, but the spring of money flows every year.

Other people develop the Next Big Thing and SAFC supplies the raw materials. Just like the gold rush. A few miners hit a big strike. But the more reliable money came from selling supplies to the miners.

As I alluded above, Aldrich charges a premium price for its products and, to my knowledge, has never discounted its wares.  It offers a valuable service and is unapologetic about how it does business.  Any given product in the catalog has a substantial markup on it. I think that many people find this galling when they compare 25 g unit prices to bulk prices.  But I would caution that there is a substantial and unrelenting cost associated with having certified quality material prepackaged and waiting on a shelf in some warehouse.

It’s easy to get bulk pricing- buy in bulk!

A bottle of maleic anhydride sitting on the shelf is functionally equivalent to cash sitting in a bottle.  You have to pay up front to have material in inventory and the cash or credit used to buy the inventory could have been used to do other things. It could have been given to Warren Buffett for investment or to the stockholders.  Management has a fiduciary responsibility to the stockholders. It is to provide the best possible return on stockholders investment.

Another hidden talent of Aldrich is logistics and distribution. Getting things to where they should be on time does not happen easily. Much of Aldrich’s success depends on its ability to move product into and out of inventory rapidly and accurately. On the input side, purchasing, receiving, quality control, manufacturing, and warehousing are highly organized to assure that orders can be fulfilled when the time comes.

When the order does arrive, the business data system has to issue the right part number from inventory and be assured that there is no shelf life problem that would disqualify the product for sale.  Any chemical product must have a certificate of analysis, an MSDS, and be available in the right unit configuration, or SKU- stock keeping unit.

Order fulfillment involves entry of the purchase order into the data system, issuance of a work order to obtain the material, pulling the SKU from the inventory data base, and sending the order to shipping for final containerizing for land, sea, or air shipment.  Here, the product must be packed in a way to conform with DOT and IATA regulations.  Shipping documents must be packed, boxes placarded, and the parcels must get onto a truck for delivery.  Foreign deliveries are complicated by customs issues, which often include inspection and import duties. Customs clearance is a subspecialty in the shipping world.

In many ways, making the chemical is the easiest part.  Getting clean product is just the beginning of the adventure in product distribution.

Growth occurs by acquiring new brand loyalty and by expansion of the collection of products. One stop shopping for lab supplies.  The “80/20 rule” applies to such collections of products. This rule  of thumb states that 20 % of your products do 80 % of the business.  Chances are good that this ratio is even more skewed than 80/20. 

So, one way to grow is to expand the collection size. This ensures that as much demand is covered with product as possible.

Another way to grow is to dial in annual price increases- say 5-7%. This renders the prices in the catalog obsolete soon after they are distributed, but that is unlikely to be fatal to any given buying decision. 

Uncle Merck and Aunt Lilly

According to the November 26, 2007 C&EN, Merck has for a second time engaged the Indian firm NPIL to develop cancer drugs for two targets that they have disclosed. Merck will have the option to buy rights to the compounds, providing they successfully get through Phase IIa of clinical trials. The article discloses that Eli Lilly has made a similar agreement.

It is disappointing to see companys like Merck and Lilly outsourcing their R&D. I do not intend to besmirch NPIL. They have obviously crossed a threshold in their own R&D activity that meets the standard of major league pharma. But I do believe that Merck and Lilly deserve some scolding for outsourcing R&D.

R&D is one of the remaining activities for which the US maintains a bit of an edge. It is our magic.  To accelerate the development of R&D expertise in India is to act against our self interest as a country. India will eventually develop this capability on their own- why help? Drug discovery is an art that should be jealously guarded by a company. To farm it out to a hard working developing country with lower overhead rates is ultimately foolhardy. Even though some particular art is protected, this activity is always stimulates a company.

Lucky India. They get to exploit advanced technology without having to have paid for 100 years of R&D. Instead of having to pay to develop synthetic chemistry, they can plug and chug with a newly educated populace and access to the literature.

And who paid for the universities and the NIH post-doctoral fellowships and the research assistantships for grad students who developed and published the technology and who became the scientists whom Merck hired? Take a guess.

Investors may reap near term gains and Merck may get a better market foothold in India. Some executives will look like bloody geniuses. The presidents and CEO will prattle on over brunch about bringing home shareholder value. But when R&D goes the way of garment manufacture and automobiles, these “heroes” will be retired to their gated community in Palm Springs. In the end, they have eroded the competitiveness of the USA in an aggressive and contentious market.

Thumbs down to Merck and Lilly.