Category Archives: International Politics

Dear World …

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As an American I want to express my dismay and humiliation at the malignant behavior of the maniac that many, but not a majority of, US voters elected as our president … twice. The words idiot or narcissist fail to capture the magnitude of Trump’s deviant personality. I’m at a loss for a strong enough description of this American bad guy.

It’s bad enough that the USA has to put up with him, he is now taking his diseased fantasy show on the road. The attack on Venezuela and apprehension of the Venezuelan president has rattled cages around the world. Worse yet, he said that America will “run Venezuela for a while.” The noises emanating from his cake hole also suggest that Venezuelan crude oil is on his mind as well. After all, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world. Does he think that American oil company giants will immediately “drill baby drill” and be forever grateful to him?

Does the Trump administration fantasize about placing a democratic republic in place after Maduro? Just like we did in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya or Viet Nam?

The US snatch & grab of Maduro from his home in Caracas was technically well-executed but strategically very dangerous and diplomatically naive. One can imagine Chinese military planners moving up the date of their invasion of Taiwan now that international norms have ratcheted down a few clicks.

Pro-Trump media in the US are portraying this Venezuelan expedition as a phenomenal success and cause for patriotic chest thumping. There isn’t anyone stating in public that Maduro is a misunderstood saint. He is was a bad actor and should have been toppled years ago. Few are shedding tears.

The drug running crimes of Venezuela’s cartels include cocaine, but not fentanyl according to knowledgeable people. Worse yet, many are saying that the Venezuelan “drug boat” interdictions conducted by the US Navy were primarily of deliveries to Europe. Not that that is acceptable but victories for the America drug war they are not.

The big problem is the unilateral obliteration of another nation’s sovereignty and disregard for rules-based conduct of the USA. Has the Trump administration thoughtfully considered what unanticipated consequences may hatch out of this offense against international norms and the United Nations?

One of the more intriguing ideas is that the next “expedition” might be Cuba which is closely tied to Venezuela. Venezuela supplies oil to Cuba and they provide health care professionals in return. Being a client state of the Soviet Union in the 1960s, Cuba has been a strategic thorn in the side of the USA since the early Fidel Castro days and a locus of embarrassment in foreign US policy. The US Secretary of State and former Florida senator Marco Rubio is of Cuban descent and is known to harbor ill will towards the Cuban government. But, as always, predicting the future is iffy.

Along with the restructuring of global political power is the momentum to remove the US dollar by the BRICS states from the dollar’s dominance in international finance. American global financial dominance and “political stability” is connected to foreign investment in the dollar which sustains American debt and deficit spending.

There is speculation floating around that Putin wants Russia to be the hegemon of the former Soviet states along with Europe. He believes it to be Russia’s destiny, and he will be the emperor who brings it in. Some reckon that he’ll be fine with the USA dominating the western hemisphere. America and Russia with their own spheres of influence.

The very idea that an American president would collude or at least fly in formation with Putin to divide up the world into an American western hemisphere empire and a Russian/European empire as some are suggesting is beyond my comprehension. Trump’s earlier speculation regarding the annexation of Canada and Greenland into the United States seemed odd in isolation, however in the bigger picture of the USA as hegemon of the Americas puts a bit of context to it.

How US strikes in Nigeria will play out in the near term is a mystery. Given that the reason for the strike was that Nigerian Christians were under attack, where will American Christian Nationalists, whom I will assume were behind the strike, drive this conflict next?

Okay, so this is somewhere between wild-assed speculation and Political Science 202. The game of political rugby is in motion and God help us all.

Good Lord, It’s The Greenland Thing Again.

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The Fearless Overlord of the American Oligarchy, DJT, has resurfaced the Greenland question again. Louisiana’s Republican governor Jeff Landry has been anointed by Trump to a volunteer position as Special Envoy to Greenland. This move was promptly condemned by both the EU President and Denmark, unsurprisingly.

Resembling the many tragic leaders in history, Trump keeps nattering on about the need to annex Greenland for national security. The claim of national security is a kind of universal excuse that is solemnly expressed but rarely explained. We understand that an explanation might reveal the poker hand we are playing- We get it. But like a when a hammer looks around and sees only nails, what does a property developer see when he pans his orange face across a large, underdeveloped island? Bingo!!

We shouldn’t forget that Trump has been in the business of selling his name as a brand for a long time. He knows the value of an attractive brand and is not the least bit shy about plastering his family name as far and wide as possible. Look at the recently renamed “Trump Kennedy” Center in DC where he is the CEO. His coterie of sycophants are constantly trying to outdo each other with ever increasing levels of ass-kissing. Whatever shame there might have been in self-promotion is long gone.

The thing is that when a businessman who was in the business of promoting his brand begins to label government property with that brand, isn’t that a conflict of interest? His escape must be that others are slapping the brand on buildings, not him. There isn’t a single milligram of shame in him that would request that such naming happen only after he passes.

An interesting thing is that while the Trump administration is officially contemptuous of global climate change, a particular result of climate change must come about. In order to extract mineral wealth from below the ice –whatever that might be– global warming will be needed to melt the Greenland ice cap to expose that mineral wealth.

However, the motivation goes far beyond minerals. Access to the Arctic Ocean and whatever crude oil that may be pumped out from below the ocean floor is up for grabs. A US shoreline on the Arctic Ocean supports arctic military access as well as access to the new Northwest Passage that is opening up to commerce.

A surprise to precisely no one, annexing Greenland is about a new phase of American hegemony and extending the reach of military power. Perhaps Greenland is the new Manifest Destiny in the eyes of the rancid White House clique running American government just now.

I previously mentioned American hegemony. The USA has been a leading world power since the conclusion of WWII. There are presently two other powers who desire this status and are happy to help the USA to topple over as hegemon. The post WWII track record of the American hegemon is spotty at best and since the election of Trump, has begun an abrupt nosedive.

Trump’s slogan “America First” is catchy and patriotic-sounding and appeals to us as citizens of an isolated country bounded by two expansive oceans. Unlike a great many other countries, the USA has a temperate climate, warm deepwater ports, and abundant fertile farmland, minerals and lumber. Importantly, the USA had a capitalistic economic establishment favoring industrialization as a mostly democratic republic. In combination, all of this allowed the USA to rapidly tool-up after Pearl Harbor and back its fighting forces with massive quantities of war materiel and enter WWII cocked and loaded for bear. Fascism was defeated in Europe and the Pacific, and we even helped our defeated enemies get back on their feet.

In my lifetime, I’ve heard many fellow citizens try to explain our victories in WWII as the result of some unique attribute of American clean living and superior moral fiber. Never mentioned are the countries who also had clean living and high moral fiber but were unable to summon the resources to assemble a powerful war machine. American successes in WWII greatly relied on abundant natural resources, an existing industrial base and oceans that prevented tanks and troops from marching across our borders.

Today, the tell-tale voices of fascism are surfacing around the USA. People who had previously voted republican and strutted around claiming to be patriotic citizens are now saying that maybe democracy doesn’t work and an authoritarian government is needed. Let Trump be Trump!

WWII veterans and their offspring have come, passed away or retired by now in 2025. They brought a kind of optimism and energy to the growth of the USA. Technological modernism was the answer to all the ills of society. What was needed was an electrified, push button life of convenience.

If you look deep enough into virtually any peacetime period of American history, you’ll find reports of conflict, malfeasance, criminality and a myriad of dirty political dealings for the time. This represents the true baseline, ground state of America. This is bumpy ground but normal. My point is that before we indulge in self-flagellation and unrealistic expectations of our society, we should have a good think about what “normal” is actually comprised of. The inability to deal with exponential growth, uncertainty and a bit of disorder only cripples us.

Where does Russia go next?

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[Edited and Rewritten post.]

Many Western observers often imagine a future in which, after Putin’s departure, Russia evolves into a more open and cooperative nation. Wouldn’t it be appealing if Russia joined the global community of states that embrace free trade and safe tourism? This vision reflects our own ideals, making it easy to assume that Russia might share them—but history suggests the reality may be far more complex.

A review of Russian history from Tsar Nicholas II to the present reveals a persistent pattern of authoritarian governance. Although Tsar Alexander II abolished serfdom in 1861 and introduced several liberal reforms, these changes faced strong resistance. Many reforms were ultimately reversed, as they diminished the power of the nobility, provoking significant opposition despite their positive perception in the West.

On March 31, 1881, Tsar Alexander II was assassinated in St Petersburg, Russia. His habit was to ride his carriage to a military roll call that day of the week. The route was along the Catherine Canal. An assassin threw a bomb under the horses and it exploded as the carriage rolled over it. The emperor’s carriage was bullet proof, a gift from Napolean III. Alexander exited the damaged carriage uninjured and paused to survey the scene. As he was doing this, a second assassin tossed another bomb at his feet which exploded, later killing him and killing and injuring many others in the vicinity. Afterwards a beautiful cathedral was built on this site called the Cathedral of the Savior on Blood.

Cathedral of the Savior on Blood. Included here only because it is a beautiful image. Image from Wikipedia.

Cathedral of the Savior on Blood. Included here only because it is a beautiful image. Image from Wikipedia. I was awestruck when I visited.

If you end up in Saint Petersburg, which I whole heartedly recommend, this cathedral is well worth a visit. It’s newer and, in my opinion, perhaps even more beautiful than the famous Saint Basil’s Cathedral in Moscow along Red Square,

Following Tsar Nicholas II’s abdication in 1917, a provisional government briefly assumed power before being overthrown by the Bolsheviks during the October Revolution. The ensuing civil war ended with Bolshevik victory, elevating leaders such as Lenin, Trotsky, and Molotov. In November 1917, the Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic (RSFSR), the Russian Soviet State declared itself a sovereign state.

The revolution triggered widespread unrest, with numerous factions pursuing divergent objectives. The Bolsheviks relied on the Red Army, while the White Army comprised former imperial officers and Ukrainian anarchists opposed Bolshevik control as well. Additionally, thirteen foreign powers—including Austria-Hungary, Germany, and the Ottoman Empire—intervened against the Bolsheviks.

In 1922, the Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic ratified a constitution and formally established the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), written in Cyrillic as CCCP.

Amid the turmoil of the Bolshevik Revolution, Russia ceded territories previously seized by Germany during World War I. The collapse of the Russian Empire sparked a protracted struggle among various ethnic groups and factions to reclaim land and assert authority. By 1923, the Russian Civil War had concluded.

Let me say that although the western block vigorously opposed the Soviet communism later in the Cold War, the break from monarchy by popular uprising to form the Federative Soviet Republic and later the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics was a remarkable achievement for that part of the world. To transition from a monarchy with serfdom to the USSR in ~60 years was a world-class achievement. The sad part was the rise of Stalinism and cementing in state authoritarianism as well as revolutionary expansion to global communism. Global socialism was an early goal of the Bolshevik leadership. Socialism was interpreted as a precursor to true communism.

So, why can’t they be like us? Because their history and cultural development never included exposure to free markets, private ownership, foreign travel and individual freedoms we in the west are accustomed to today. No Magna Carta setting limits on the power of the monarch and no parliament sharing power with the monarch. Russia did not participate in global travel as western European nations did which led to colonization and the extraction of wealth from their colonies producing gold, silver, spices, salt peter, slaves, etc. The wealth accumulation and theft of colonial resources set the pace for producing vibrant and wealthy countries in Europe, but not in many of the colonies. The American colonies are a famous exception.

Summary-

This summary only scratches the surface of the October Revolution and the subsequent civil war. For further detail, readers are encouraged to consult additional sources. The period was marked by extreme complexity and violence, resulting in an estimated 7–12 million deaths.

All of this Russian/Soviet history is meant to highlight that from the very beginning the Soviet state was born from the fire of violent conflict. The Soviet State prevailed in the end and many Soviet revolutionaries migrated into positions of power in the new USSR. It is difficult to believe that the leadership of the Bolshevik revolution and civil war were left unaffected by this conflict as they moved down the timeline building the USSR. It had to affect how they thought of power and how to keep it. Did this experience set the ball rolling for an centrally controlled authoritarian state? Was the tight control over the state emphasized by the early war experience? It is not just authoritarianism as offices and red tape, but it includes institutionalized paranoia and a lack of reluctance to use imprisonment and execution as tools of the state. The gulag system was built under Stalin. This brutal leader sent millions of people to the gulag system to labor. They weren’t executed outright because the state needed laborers to build the camps and to work on public works projects and build and operate factories. Starting in the 1930s, Stalin began to push for extensive industrialization all over the USSR. Agriculture in particular was industrialized, especially in Ukraine. This was behind the Ukrainian Holodomor of 1932-1933.

Given this history of conflict, authoritarianism, and systemic repression, it is unsurprising that Russia continues to exhibit traits of a closed and deeply security-conscious state,

The Latest Crusades

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You’ve probably heard that #47 has asked the Pentagon to be ready for action. According to an article in The Hill, President #47 has labeled Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern”, or CPC. This designation stems from news that Islamic terrorists are allegedly attacking Nigerian Christians. A group of approximately 30 American Christian religious leaders and a few politicians like Ted Cruz and Rep. Riley Moore (R-W.Va.) as well as the entertainers Nicki Minaj and Bill Maher have made a convincing enough case for the President to make the CPC declaration.

The [CPC] designation compels the president to consult with the designated government, draft up a foreign policy action plan, and consult with Congress about implementation.  [H.R.2431 — 105th Congress (1997-1998) within 90 days.]  –Laura Kelly – 11/03/25, The Hill

If you read H.R. 2431 (2018), you’ll find:

Title IV: Presidential Actions – Subtitle I: Targeted Responses to Violations of Religious Freedom Abroad – Directs the President, for each foreign country in which the government engages in or tolerates violations of religious freedom (including particularly severe violations), to oppose such violations by taking certain actions and promoting the right to freedom of religion in that country. [emphasis mine]

(Sec. 405) Specifies among the actions the President may take: (1) public condemnation; (2) delay or cancellation of scientific and cultural exchanges; (3) withdrawal, limitation, or suspension of U.S. development assistance and U.S. security assistance; (4) instruction of U.S. executive directors of international financial institutions to vote against loans primarily benefiting the foreign government responsible for such violations; (5) restrictions on the issuance of licenses to export any goods or technology to such foreign government; (6) prohibition against the making, guaranteeing, or insuring of loans, or extension of credit by certain U.S. financial institutions to the violating government; and (7) prohibition of U.S. Government procurement of goods or services from such government. Provides for: (1) commensurate actions in substitution for any of the above presidential actions; and (2) binding agreements with foreign governments obliging them to cease, or take substantial steps to address and phase out, the acts, policies, or practices constituting violations of religious freedom.

(Sec. 407) Authorizes the President to waive the requirements of this Act if certain conditions are met.

(Sec. 410) Prohibits judicial review of presidential actions or agency actions taken under this Act.

My reading of Title IV of H.R. 2431 is that the President is compelled to take certain actions against Nigeria. While taking no action does not seem to be specifically barred, I didn’t see it listed as an option.

The potential threat by the President is in sending an expeditionary military force to Nigeria to stop the violence on Christians. According to Wikipedia, the population (2023) of Nigeria is estimated at 236,747,130 people. Unless the terrorists are wearing military uniforms, how will our troops find them and what’s to prevent a guerrilla war with the terrorists gradually taking bites out of our soldiers as they did in Viet Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan? Guerilla warfare has time and again proven successful against superior military forces.

America does not need another distant land war … this time in west-central Africa with guerilla fighters in the jungle. Peace through superior firepower only works if you can find the targets. Perhaps we should call in favors from Israeli special forces?

Finally, conflict between religions is a conflict between ideas. When both sides believe that they have authority based on the supernatural, short of religious conversion or death how do you decisively win such a war? A war of attrition, perhaps?

As a military conflict progresses, what is to prevent escalation on the part of US forces. Or is this just to be the work of a few military advisors? Remember, that is how the US stumbled into the Viet Nam war.

Progressive Voices From America

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Colorado, 8/12/25. I find myself in the murky world of the Anti-Trump movement. Millions of voices cry out in opposition of this American President, yet he remains in office supported by the current House and Senate Republican majorities and the election cycle. America is stuck with this condition at least until the 2026 election. At that time the majority leadership of both houses could fall to the Democrats. or not.

The current plague of house and senate MAGA elected officials is with us at least until 2026. The present deconstruction of the US federal government was planned out by the American political group Heritage Foundation and published for all to see in the form of “Project 2025“. Musk’s DOGE may have been connected, but I do not know.

Some people trace the current political catastrophe to President Reagan in the 1980s. This is when he endorsed the trickle-down supply side Laffer Curve to press forward the view that returning tax dollars to the wealthy would in return result in greater general prosperity for all. Wealth would “trickle down” from the wealthy and onto the millions of pointy heads who believed it.

The world should know that a large liberal progressive population still exists in America and is getting stronger. The problem is that the liberal Democratic Party in America has failed to surface any charismatic leadership beyond a few individuals. There are no liberal rallies to attend in my part of the US. Democratic politicians seem to have their heads down trying to plow through endless political outrage.

America’s current president, #47, is a huge embarrassment for most Americans. I can say that we apologize to the western nations for letting this buffoon loose on the world. For America to fall apart because a greedy and precocious real estate developer is building an authoritarian state is just too much to comprehend.

I began to notice cracks in the political foundation around 1976. I stopped at a booth on the July 4th fair fairgrounds and listened to the people there. They were the John Birch Society and were supporting anti-communism, right wing populism and libertarianism. They were unrepentant in their focused anti-establishment views on how to carry out American civilization. What they described resembled anarchism but with close ties to conservative protestant evangelicalism. Never a churchy person or a fan of communism, I stood and listened for a while just to hear their screwy arguments. I found it unworkably utopian and their conspiracy arguments for their ideology too much of a stretch. Their interlocking diatribes match with what I see today.

To my European friends, there is hope for the USA yet in the coming few years. I have to believe that our culture is still strong enough to survive this orange monstrosity in the White House. We cannot allow this guy to convert a long term liberal democracy into an illiberal democracy.

Russia, WTF??

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Getting credible news and commentary from Ukraine can be problematic. I’ve been receiving a newsletter from Ukraine called Kyiv Independent. I also view a Polish Public Television program found on YouTube, Telewizja Polska S.A.(PVT), that has up-to-date military news coverage and action video from the anti-Russian perspective, of course. Poland has a much better understanding of Russia than most of us in the West. During WWII, Poland was savagely occupied first by the Nazis only to be liberated and savaged by Stalin’s brutal Red Army.

Another seemingly straight news and opinion source is called “Inside Russia“. This is found on YouTube and is updated at least weekly. The host evacuated Russia around the time of the invasion of Ukraine and broadcasts his channel from abroad. He speaks excellent English and went to college studying economics in the USA. He combs through news and events in Russia and gives context and interpretation. He seems quite credible.

Usually, TVP military content is dripping with the irony around Russia’s once-feared conventional military collapsing in on itself. Poland has everything to fear from Putin’s imperialism so they are following the Putin-Ukraine war closely. So are the Baltic states and perhaps a few former Soviet states to the south as well.

“Since the establishment of the Tsardom of Russia in 1547 and to the present day, Russia has fought wars every two-three decades, on average, meaning that there was never a Russian generation that lived in peace.” From essay by Oleksiy Sorokin, “WTF is Wrong with Russia?” The Kyiv Independent, January 23, 2025.

“In 1774, Russia decisively won the Russo-Turkish War, obtaining what is roughly today Ukraine’s regions of Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Odessa, Mykolaiv and parts of Donetsk Oblast. The Russian Empire also forced the Ottoman Empire to relinquish control of Crimean Khanate.” Oleksiy Sorokin, ibid.

Much of Putin’s propaganda is anchored in allegations of Western buggery and provocations, spying or otherwise contamination of Russian sovereignty by Western culture which they see as morally corrupt. The former USSR and present-day North Korea built their nations on the fear of America and NATO preparing to invade. The illegal annexing of territory, theft of money and denial of basic human rights is more easily justified if the threat of 10 ft tall foreign soldiers is predicted.

I am unaware of any previous or future attempts by the West to invade Russian territory for any reason. What in the hell would you do with it if you won? Ok, they have minerals and lots of timber which are valuable. Still, the country is crawling with Russian citizens who are, by the way, just as smart as we are and would be highly motivated for self-defense just like the Ukrainians have been. There is no future in a Russia-vs-West major war. The threat of it, however, has value to people like Putin as it did in the bygone days of the USSR.

Putin has done a bit of nuclear saber rattling since his invasion of Ukraine but Western states know that cooler heads in the Kremlin are aware of the consequences of releasing a nuclear war shot even as a demonstration. Everyone knows about Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) but a few on either side have always doubted MAD. Obviously, the ominous warnings of “nuclear weapons” were meant to frighten the citizens of the EU and USA with the hope of weakening anti-Russian sentiment abroad.

In the West we can ask the questions “Why is Russia so paranoid all of the time?” “Why is authoritarian rule so prevalent in Russian history?” Putin has publicly stated that the West wants what they have and he is determined to keep western invaders out. Well, yes this is true as far as market access. Many businesses around the world would love oil & gas or other concessions like Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) or titanium. Russia’s internal markets are underserved and represent opportunities for both Russian citizens and international trade.

I sense there is a fear in Russia that if another country uses Russian raw materials to make a profit elsewhere, that it constitutes a theft directly from them. You know, the zero-sum of “their gain is our loss”. It may be a residue of their long-term dalliance with Marxist-Leninism and Communism.

Wouldn’t it be wonderful if only Russia could relax just a bit and join the international community of nations and trading partners. Too idealistic by half? Yes, for now.

Volt Typhoon in Place to Deny US Infrastructure

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An April 18, 2024, Reuters article by Christopher Bing reports on an address given at Vanderbilt University by FBI Director Christopher Wray. Wray disclosed information from Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), National Security Agency (NSA), and FBI that hackers linked to the People’s republic of China (PRC) government have established access to US companies in a campaign called “Volt Typhoon”. The goal is to produce chaos and panic in the US at a time of their choosing by interfering with telecommunications, energy, water and other critical sectors. The article says that as many as 23 US pipeline companies have been targeted.

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is well known to engage in various levels of shady cyberwarfare on the rest of the world either directly or with other players. Hybrid warfare is a conflict that considers propaganda, misinformation and cyber-attacks as part of the spectrum of total war. In this case, cyber spying and disruption are part of it. Their cyberwarfare activity is not only about theft of intellectual property, spying or causing immediate damage. They are also engaged in placing sleeper code with the target for activation at their leisure. One particularly insidious action is referred to as “Living Off the Land“.

Living off the land is a technique that evades detection by using intermediate infrastructure to shield hostile activity such as command and control activity from local ISP’s.

The actor has executed the following command to gather information about local drives [T1082]: cmd.exe /C “wmic path win32_logicaldisk get caption,filesystem,freespace,size,volumename” This command does not require administrative credentials to return results. The command uses a command prompt [T1059.003] to execute a Windows Management Instrumentation Command Line (WMIC) query, collecting information about the storage devices on the local host, including drive letter, file system (e.g., new technology file system [NTFS]), free space and drive size in bytes, and an optional volume name. Windows Management Instrumentation (WMI) is a built-in Windows tool that allows a user to access management information from hosts in an enterprise environment. The command line version of WMI is called WMIC. Source: CISA, People’s Republic of China State-Sponsored Cyber Actor Living off the Land to Evade Detection

The breadth of Volt Typhoon is much greater than mentioned here. For further information please consult the CISA source.

One particular time of their choosing is likely to be as the PRC prepares to invade Taiwan. Sowing chaos and the denial of resources for the US could alter the outcome of an invasion of Taiwan in PRC’s favor. Taiwan (Formosa) is the part of China that did not fall to the communist takeover under Mao Zedong.

An Eye for an Eye: The Right of Requital

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[Note: I’m about to make a mistake. I am commenting on the Israeli/Hamas conflict on the internets for the whole world to see.]

Basic to the Israel/Hamas conflict is the general matter of who has the right to reoccupy ancestral land. In the Levant, possession of the land has changed hands many, many times over history. Today, Russia is claiming that it has the right to “re-absorb” Ukraine back into what is now the greater Russian empire. The Chinese Communist Party claims that Taiwan belongs to the mainland Chinese. Conflicts over entitlement to territory is a persistent threat to global peace, especially now that nuclear-tipped missiles can cross great distances in a short time or can suddenly pop out from under coastal waters.

The bloody war between Hamas and Israel drags on. I think a few forget that the conflict between Palestinians and Israeli Zionists has been raging for many years. The current war is only the latest outburst and a particularly bloody one at that. The right of requital, or the principle of an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth is the guiding theory there.

Prior to this war I’ll admit that I was somewhat biased toward Israel because, even as a non-theist, I find their culture generally agreeable. But the bombing and mass extermination of civilians in Gaza as well as the embargo on food and medicine getting into Gaza is beyond any justification. Having been a victim does not give anyone the right to victimize other parties. An eye-for-an-eye is a specious argument.

Destroying whole buildings, neighborhoods, cities or territories with weapons where civilians may be present could be an indiscriminate attack. A quote from Indiscriminate Attack in Wikipedia-

“In international humanitarian law and international criminal law, an indiscriminate attack is a military attack that fails to distinguish between legitimate military targets and protected persons. Indiscriminate attacks strike both legitimate military and protected objects alike, thus violating the principle of distinction between combatants and protected civilians. They differ from direct (or deliberate) attacks against protected civilians and encompass cases in which the perpetrators are indifferent as to the nature of the target, cases in which the perpetrators use tactics or weapons that are inherently indiscriminate (e.g., cluster munitions, anti-personnel mines, nuclear weapons), and cases in which the attack is disproportionate, because it is likely to cause excessive protected civilian casualties and damages to protected objects.” Source: Wikipedia.

“Indiscriminate attacks are prohibited both by the Geneva Conventions Additional Protocol I (1977) and by customary international humanitarian law. They constitute a war crime under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, and the perpetrators can be prosecuted and held responsible in international and domestic courts.” Source: Wikipedia.

“In 1977, Protocol I was adopted as an amendment to the Geneva Conventions, prohibiting the deliberate or indiscriminate attack of civilians and civilian objects in international armed conflicts; the attacking force must take precautions and steps to spare the lives of civilians and civilian objects as possible. Although ratified by 173 countries, the only countries that are currently not signatories to Protocol I are the United States, Israel, Iran, Pakistan, India, and Turkey.” Source: Wikipedia.

What about the Geneva Conventions relating to civilians? There have been 4 Geneva Conventions. The Fourth Geneva Convention covers humanitarian protections of protected civilians in a war zone.

Even if a nation is not a signatory or it hasn’t been ratified, from my western point of view the Geneva Conventions seem to outline the shape of decency, kindness and humanity.

Irrespective of the Geneva Conventions as at least an optional guide, neither combatants are concerned with the guidelines. Whether or not the Geneva Conventions could even include organizations like Hamas and others is unclear (to me).

I’ve noticed that social media is filling up with anti-Israel content. I’ve given up trying to understand who the more righteous party in this conflict is. I am unable to support either side. The attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, was obviously a savage orgy of murder. Hamas had to have known that this act would provoke a retaliation that would affect Palestinian civilians.

I’ve long admired Israel because it has built a modern thriving civilization from the ground up. But, it has done so on homelands claimed and occupied by others. As an outside observer I’m sad for the Palestinians for their long suffering under Israeli control since 1948. The Israelis have built an apartheid zone and have confined a large number of Palestinians to the tiny Gaza strip and the West Bank. On the other side, however, numerous extremist groups have taken hold and shelter in Palestinian territories with the aim of killing all Israelis and have been doing so intermittently for years. These groups have received support from Iranian leaders and other players making the conflict a proxy war. Iran wishes for nothing less than demolition of the state of Israel and installing a far-reaching Islamic caliphate. They seem prepared for the long game. Just connect the dots.

Now, the US has bombed Yemen to prevent the Houthis from further attacking international shipping. A coalition of forces, principally the UK and US, has been intercepting drones and cruise missiles aimed at Israeli targets and ships intending to transit the Suez Canal. The Houthis, who have been engaged in a lengthy civil war in Yemen, have been building their military bona fides to further their ties with Iran, or so some say. The boldness of Iranian provocation continues to rise. Who knows what will happen after they test their first nuclear weapon?

From within the Hamas frame of reference, perhaps a big provocation followed by a big retaliation might rally Islamic nations against Israel and its sponsors?? As I understand it, what isn’t helping their cause is the bad taste Palestinians left in Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon in the past. There is a sense that to accept Palestinian immigration is to accept a population carrying militancy with it.

Israel’s response to the attack was to retaliate with shock and awe in Gaza in an effort to exterminate Hamas once and for all. From within the Israeli frame of reference, there is a certain cold military logic to their strategy in greater Gaza. However, whatever support Israel may have had from the 10/7/23 attack has withered. Israel cannot shake the historical facts of its founding- that it was established by displacing Palestinians from their home territory. Palestinians are still furious about Zionist colonization. Palestinians were simply removed from their homes and driven out. The same thing is happening in slow motion in the West Bank. While the world’s attention was elsewhere, Gaza was cemented into an open-air prison camp far short of liberties that we in the US take for granted.

Unfortunately for Israel, Hamas represents a political belief system strongly coupling homeland with Islam. Extinguishing a belief amounts to long term Wack-A-Mole. Palestinians are in desperate straits and have no place to call their own. In their abysmal location in Gaza, why should they stop the struggle?

Unfortunately for Hamas, the State of Israel in its present location is a long-held dream come true for Zionists. Israelis have nowhere to go even if they did give up the land. Israelis will fight to the death rather than handing over what they believe is their ancestral homeland. Israel is a nuclear state and will likely use their nuclear weapons if state collapse is threatened. Isn’t that what every nuclear state threatens to do?

What we see is a never-ending cycle of retribution. One side is brutalized and eventually strikes back.  Many take the view that past Israeli or Palestinian victimhood does not justify continued victimization. The killing of non-combatants is simply unjustifiable and must stop. The Palestinian death toll is over 33,000, most of whom are reportedly women and children. The Islamic world will not soon forget this assault on Gaza and the role of the US.

The role of the US in this conflict is troubling. We’ve always been supporters of Israel. Israel and Turkey are claimed to be the only countries in the Levant resembling a democracy. There is strong political support from Jewish and Christian Zionist communities in the US. The magnitude of this translates into hard support for Israel in terms of funding and weapons. Israel’s soft power is US backing in international matters including military support.

For the US to support the Palestinians would be taken as an affront to the Israelis and would be political suicide for any US administration taking such a position. Israel enjoys considerable support in the US and such a stance would not survive. Obviously.

I am a supporter of the Biden administration and the direction he has taken the country generally. I agree there is a logic to long term support of democracies around the world. However, Biden’s public and unwavering support of Netanyahu’s Israel has been, I believe, a strategic mistake during this conflict. There are indications in the news that there is a quiet effort behind the curtains to convince Netanyahu that the mass killing of Gazans is the wrong choice. Recently Biden and Netanyahu have spoken and signs that the severity on Gazans lightening is apparent.

I’m an American and I agree with and support our democratic values emphasizing life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. So, to militarily and politically support a nation that is exterminating civilians, democracy or not, is immoral.

US policy toward both the state of Israel and Palestine/Gaza/West Bank must undergo major recalibration to a more balanced approach in the region. The Palestinian demand for the return of their homeland did not suddenly fall from the sky. It has been there from the beginning. The State of Israel is the result of documented actions taken by the United Nations following the expiration of the 1917 Balfour Declaration. US President Harry Truman was the first head of state to formally recognize Israel as the legitimate Jewish state in 1948. Truman did express misgivings, however.

America’s credibility in backing a righteous path has been damaged by our own expeditionary zeal in post WWII. The big skeleton in the American closet is that in our history is full of examples of appropriating territory from the Native Americans and our appalling treatment of them. Plainly, they were here first. Settlers pushed them off their land, encouraged by the government, and confined them in ever diminishing remote spaces. The point is that the US can hardly lecture Israel on the way their state was formed. Israel is a technologically advanced nation with many accomplishments to their credit. But, in the political choices made before and after 1948 leading to nationhood, they have set themselves up for this conflict.

In history there are endless examples of conquest and defeat. Lands are taken by invading armies, people die and the social order tipped over. Over time, conquerors are eventually conquered themselves, people die and yield to new military and political forces. Borders and power shift, people die and settle for a time, but eventually a new order arrives, people die and things shift again. This has been seen in history all over the world and it will continue to happen. The Palestinians have lost their homeland and might just have to live with it as so many others have done in the last 10,000 years. Perhaps one day what is left of the Native Americans population will reclaim North America after some kind of large-scale apocalypse wipes out the colonist population.

It is difficult to see how Israel and the Palestinians can come to some sort of armistice without Israel surrendering some land and the Palestinians committing to less than full repossession of the land.

Taking the cosmic viewpoint, the human inhabitants of Earth are wrecking the biosphere, raising the temperature of the atmosphere, altering the climate, and while all of this is happening, murdering each other over beliefs and notions. Normally I might have said “let ’em go at it”. But we’re all on the same small speck of dust in empty space. There is nowhere else to go.

American Isolationism and the World

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The reverberations of Trump’s South Carolina comments on NATO continue. Being a thuggish racketeer himself, he sees something like freeloading or racketeering in the motives of the NATO states. With his disparaging rants about NATO and proposing that the US stands back while Putin pushes west, he emboldens the Kremlin to maintain their aggression in the hope of the US standing down. There should be no mistaking Putin’s motives- he wants to recover the territory once controlled by the Soviet Union. Some suspect that Belarus will be annexed next.

Isolationism has been a Republican reflex since before the formation of NATO. It seems to be a part of the libertarian worldview of the isolated and rugged individualist. Either they do not care about the global balance of power or are ignorant of it. We are seeing a wave of Russian aggression disguised as self-defense or the defense of “ethnic Russians” living across borders. Hitler used this trick to grease the skids for his takeover of the Sudetenland in neighboring Czechoslovakia in 1938.

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was partly justified with the lie that Ukraine is infested with Nazis who are threatening Mother Russia. In 2014 Putin had slyly marched into southern Ukraine annexing the Crimean Oblast. Shielded from critics by his extensive blackout of international media, Putin dispatched troops for the “Special Military Operation”.

On September 30, 2022, Putin gave a speech declaring annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia. In an angry, ranting speech Putin said “They don’t want us to be free, they want us to be a colony; they don’t want equal partnership, they want to steal from us,”

In Ukraine, Russia has inadvertently revealed itself to the world as a paper tiger. However, they are still in possession of a large stockpile of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons with its own triad of delivery systems. Russia’s policy has always been to use nuclear weapons in the event of the possible downfall of the state. By that they mean the downfall of Putin by outside forces. Russia is not burdened by having a policy of “no first use” of nuclear weapons like the West.

So what about Putin’s comment that “They don’t want us to be free …”. This is the autocrat who has shut down all independent news reporting within Russia, disconnected internet access to much of the world, normalized defenestration and has criminalized even the smallest whiff of dissent. Like autocrats often do, he accuses others of what he does himself. His rationale is that harsh measures are necessary to resist outside threats. He also claims that the West wants to steal from Russia. When you are an isolated and naturally secretive country, accusations of thievery are a soft sell. Accusations like this are part of the feedback loop of paranoia, hardening resolve to resist by being more secretive and brutal.

Imagine the ridiculous folly of attempting to invade or colonize Russia or take resources from it for any reason. Really, who the hell wants to be in control of Russia other than some Russian? What would a foreign invader of Russia hope to accomplish by taking control of this giant, multiethnic country? Decades of bickering, insurgency and violence? The taiga? It is a stupid plan, yet Putin frightens the population with visions of American attack and along with its sexual perversion.

Putin’s lessons from history come from Soviet times when the KGB watched for spies behind every tree and surveillance of the citizenry was justified for “state security”, a catchall for close control of its citizens. Escape from the USSR was difficult and getting caught could mean long imprisonment in a gulag.

Putin’s protestations are little more than a trademark display of strongman fulminations meant to justify the slaughter of his own military in Ukraine. I’m surprised he doesn’t do it shirtless on horseback to display his lean and mean musculature.

The Russian people deserve much better than a long history and an extended future of oppression. The region has seen immense suffering over the decades from invasion by Hitler, deadly oppression from Stalin and privation and imprisonment by its own leadership. Today, the strong arm of the Kremlin regime reaches deep into their lives, preventing a popular uprising or just expressions of discontent. What Russia lacks is an army of martyrs willing to die for freedom because that is what it would take. Putin keeps them comfortable enough to stay out of politics.

The Golden Calf Plods Forward

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As expected, New Hampshire Republicans rallied for their Golden Calf yesterday. Naturally, media people are using this to boldly predict the future. I’ve had to abandon NPR because they are serving wall-to-wall election coverage as though nothing else has happened. Despite the years of legal actions against the Orange Jesus, his popularity endures and Republican politicians and candidates continue to rally around him, hoping some of magic rubs off on them.

In interviews, Trumpsters confidently say that things were better during his presidency than under Biden’s despite what the numbers say about the economy at present. Even though inflation has dropped from 9.1 % to 3.2 % over the last year according to the AP, many consumers apparently expect prices to come down as well. Are the Trumpsters really upset about the economy or are they just angry that he lost the 2020 election?

“We don’t care about no stinkin’ 91 felony indictments. Yes, he’s committed fraud and sexual assault. But, but, but he is going to drain the swamp and halt immigration!!”

Reducing prices is not something that business people will do to make life easier for people. What industry will be the first to reduce their prices willingly because it is a “nice idea?” Prices are always set to what the customer is willing to pay. A common nightmare of a business person is that they may have left money at the table during a negotiation or a sale. Businesses charge as much as they can all the time. People who leave money at the table are not the people who rise into the thin air of the C-suite of business.

During the pandemic, supply chain interruptions helped trigger inflation. Businesses ratcheted up their prices to grow or maintain their margins. Many businesses had to raise their prices because their costs had risen, but not evenly across the board. Why waste a good opportunity to raise prices if others are doing it? For essentials, consumers soon adapted to it because they had little choice. Strangely, the economy has shown unexpected vigor during this inflationary period. Some products like pickup trucks and real estate, however, are suffering badly.

Along comes the Federal Reserve to slay the dragon of inflation. They pulled their one big tool out of its sheath for staunching inflation- raising interest rates. And so they did with success. The down-side is that it hurts those seeking a mortgage or other loans due to increased interest rates.

Another effect of the pandemic is the continuing trend of employees working from home. According to one source, the 1Q23 vacancy rate for NYC office space was 22.2 %. Remote work activity has caused businesses to reconsider the size of the office space they are leasing. Many are opting not to automatically renew their leases in favor of leveraging better terms or outright downsizing their space requirements. The new workforce shift has had a negative effect on surrounding businesses who rely on the daily flood of office workers to buy lunch and shop. It also has a big effect on the owners of office buildings who likely had business models and loans relying on higher occupancy rates. The knock-on effect is that the banks who made the commercial loans to the office building owners are beginning to see an increase in loan defaults. Commercial borrowers also face significantly higher interest rates than they started out with. News reports are very pessimistic for a reprieve in the near term.

The term that was coined for this is the urban “doom loop.” Reduced office occupancy leads to reduced tax revenue for municipalities who supply services like transit, police and street maintenance. But I don’t want to spoil it- Google “urban doom loop.”

Back to the Golden Calf.

I would offer that there is a portion of the grand American bell curve that probably shouldn’t be left in charge of a vast international economic and nuclear superpower wielding a military machine the likes of which the world has never seen before. Further, I would offer that just possibly many of the followers of #45 are comfortably squatting on that side of the bell curve.

As I see it, the Golden Calf getting back into office will adversely swerve the fate of Europe, the Balkan and the Baltic states into direct conflict with an expanding Russian Empire. Putin is obviously trying to reestablish and reenergize the reach of the former Soviet Union. He has little care for the lives of Russian soldiers as they fight and die on the battlefield, and even less for those who defy his wishes. They are expendable in the grand scheme of a Great Russian Empire of Tsar Putin.

The State of Ukraine traces back to October of 1917 when the Bolsheviks tried to capture Kyiv and failed. By January of 1918 the Ukranian revolutionary parliament declared the formation of Ukrainian People’s Republic. After much conflict, Ukraine was made part of the USSR.

In the 1930’s there was the Holodomor, or the “Great Ukrainian Famine” of 1932-33 with continued mass killing and exile of Ukrainian Kulaks to the east for the rest of the decade. The collectivization forced on Ukraine was brutal. Many thousands of Ukrainians were exiled to the east and disappeared. As Hitler invaded Poland and continued with Operation Barbarossa to Moscow, his plan to exterminate Jews went with him. The wholesale slaughter of Jews in Poland and Ukraine wasn’t limited to the concentration camps. Villages were captured by the Nazis and Jewish citizens were marched by the many tens of thousands into the woods and executed by a bullet to the head, falling into pits where they would be buried. No age or gender was spared. Hitler gave orders to Himmler to carry out the Final Solution in eastern Europe and Russia and he did with a vengeance.

A large scale international concern is with Putin’s latest invasion of Ukraine. Russia has a long history of conflict with Ukraine starting after the Bolshevik Revolution. Putin does not recognize their sovereignty and further claims that there is no Ukraine, only Russia. He seeks to establish the boundaries of the former Soviet Union and Ukraine is the first step. To allow Putin to conquer Ukraine will enable him to go after the Baltic states, the Balkans and Poland along with their manpower and resources to fortify the depleted Russian military-industrial complex.

Trump has a record of stating his disinterest in protecting the European Union and remaining in NATO. American retreat from the EU and NATO would only serve to telegraph to Putin that the US will not interfere with further Russian conquests. A massive Russian dictatorship butted up against western Europe will not lead to an enduring peace. A Russian dictatorship the size of the USSR will be no friend of the western powers.

An America that withdraws from international affairs is an America in steep decline. After all that we have accomplished and learned, under Trump and his ilk we will step down from our international platform and slink away into some imaginary Libertarian Southern Baptist utopia with the inmates running the asylum. No thank you.

The election of Trump has a ghastly downside for western civilization that is largely kept quiet by the popular media. In their desire to portray fairness, they tend to avoid topics like this for fear of the accusation of bias..