Category Archives: Politics

Slippery Slope for India

Beyond the horrific reality of the dead and injured in Mumbai from last weeks terrorist attack is the uncertainty of ramped up state tensions between nuclear India and nuclear Pakistan. Pakistani’s weary of home grown terrorists and foreign instigators can sympathize with the fear and revulsion felt by Indians who are stunned by the event. But citizens of Pakistan are indignant about accusations of state involvement in the attack.

Given the weakened condition of the government in Pakistan and the sensitivity from chronic conflict with India, it is hard to draft a rationale describing what benefit the government of Pakistan might have in such dirty dealings.

We must trust that India can take a lesson from US experience with the attack-retribution reflex and find a way to prosecute those who planned this savage crime through police work rather than invasion across borders.

Melamine Spill on Isle Five!

The reality of melamine in animal feeds and milk products has crossed the ocean and landed on the shores of North America. Trace levels of melamine have been detected in certain baby formula products in the US.

The National Milk Providers Federation (NMPF) has responded with a statement on their position on adulterants. Having been in the milk processing business as a quality control chemist, I can add that my experience with the industry is consistant with the statement by the NMPF.

To understand the true level of confusion and diverse practices relating to this problem, it is important to note that the analytical methods used by US milk processors are insensitive to the presence of melamine itself. Here is why: Raw milk arriving to a processing facility is tested for the presence of antibiotics, fat content, flavor, pH, and total solids. To my knowledge, there is no batch QC protein analysis anywhere in the US manufacturing flow. In Asia, apparently protein analysis is common. 

The practical consequence of this analytical protein blindness in the US is that there is no benefit to adding melamine to milk because pricing is not determined by protein content. Milk is sold by the pound and its premium value is determined by the butterfat content.

Milk has been subject to many kinds of fraudulent modifications in the past. Sour milk has been neutralized with caustic. Today all milk is taste-tested for off flavor. Milk has been diluted for higher profit. Today all raw milk is tested for % solids and % fat to detect dilution. It should be above a certain minimum on both accounts. Cows have been milked abusively into chronic mastitis and given antibiotics. All milk is now tested for antibiotic residues via chemical and microbial assays. Finally, milk that contains an excessive microbial loading is rejected.

If Chinese milk processors adopted a similar testing protocol, the benefit of direct adulteration of milk with melamine would disappear. The effects of melamine-laced cattle feed is another issue. I have not heard of studies that connect ingestion of melamine contaminated feedstocks to milk contamination. Perhaps this has already been done.

According to the Wall Street Journal

Dr. [Stephen] Sundlof said the melamine traces stemmed from the products coming in contact with the chemical during processing. The FDA approved melamine as a “food contact substance” about four decades ago.

The article continues-

The FDA said last month that it’s safe for consumers to eat most food with melamine below 2.5 parts per million, but infant formula was the exception. “FDA is currently unable to establish any level of melamine and melamine-related compounds in infant formula that does not raise public health concerns,” it said.

I am heartened to see that the FDA is reluctant to establish a threshold for safe consumption by infants. But at the same time, the matter of a 2.5 ppm threshold for everyone else amounts to a sh*t sandwich for the public.

The levels detected by US companies and agencies seems rather low. Again, from WSJ-

A spokesman for Mead Johnson Nutritionals, owned by Bristol-Myers, said the company’s own tests haven’t turned up any melamine, and the FDA tests turned up melamine levels “lower than the 0.25 parts per million limit that can be measured by the published FDA test method.” Mead Johnson, he said, maintains “stringent standards at all our manufacturing sites to ensure the high quality and safety of our products that our customers have come to expect.”

Dr. Sundloff said the melamine detected was tiny. Out of 87 samples, it found one sample with 0.137 parts per million and 0.140 parts per million on a verification test.

While toxicological threat to US consumers at the sub-ppm level is unclear at the moment, what seems to be lacking at FDA is a discussion as to the need to allow any level of melamine in any consumable.

Here is what is clear to Th’ Gaussling:

There is no overlap in the material streams of melamine or melamine resin manufacture with any dairy product. No dairy operation should reasonably expect to require containers of melamine monomer in its warehouse, nor should any supplier to dairy product manufacture.

Melamine contamination by contact exposure to melamine resin components can be averted by the use of many other food grade materials of construction, i.e., stainless steel.

If melamine is detected in food articles, it is the duty of the manufacturer to promptly audit all suppliers and eliminate the source of contamination.

Rather than tolerate and regulate the presence of a material whose only purpose is to perpetrate fraud, the FDA should ban food products containing detectable amounts of melamine. If the FDA goes forward with acceptable levels of melamine in dairy products, suppliers would begin to game the system. In a short time, ppm levels of melamine will be considered “normal” and suppliers of melamine contaminated feedstocks will be legitimized up to the regulatory threshold. 

A firm stand by regulatory agencies will strengthen the motivation of manufacturers to maintain strong audit trails and take away the financial incentive to use this fraudulent additive.

Failing to Ask Better Questions

We may be entering a time of greater economic hardship than many have known in their lives. The great age of mass consumption, non-returnables, and disposable goods may have peaked.  Boarding the Hummer or the Escalade to drive 5 miles to buy cigarettes and a Big Gulp may be a thing of the past for a greater number of citizens. Americans will have to adopt a lifestyle much more akin to Europe or Japan- reduced living space and reduced (kg of crap)/(person year), reduced portion sizes, more walking, local shopping, and increased use of rail transportation.

The Oil Shock of Summer 2008 snagged the suspenders of this nation of hydrocarbon addicts, sending us reeling into the election/market crash machinery like a drunken farmer pulled into the thresher. Out the back end of this nightmare comes the bloody oat chaff to hint that something horrific happened. Reality strikes, then … silence.

In spite of the plurality of media outlet channels into our collective consciousness, few infotainers are drilling into the core of the problem. The pace and timing of commercial media sets the rhythm of infotainment metered to the masses. Photogenic talking heads selected for their appeal read predigested content for broadcast to attention deficit channel surfers. People dulled by the sheer magnitude of content-dilute information streams and dazzled by the production value of infotainment are compelled to switch on HBO and hide from the world.

Here is what we must do. We must see to it that better questions are being investigated. Instead of asking about the replacement for gasoline, we must ask for a frank disclosure on the sustainability of high consumption. Instead of asking for better or hybrid automobiles, we must frame questions around the concept of a mass transportation network. How can we get intercity rail up and running? How can the Detroit automobile manufactures be cajoled into entering the rail infrastructure business? Where is the hydrogen going to come from to fuel the hydrogen economy? Does it make sense to consume energy to generate hydrogen and then turn around and burn it for propulsion?

The best answers come from the best questions.

Pre-Crime Division

Good lord. The erosion of liberty continues to accelerate. Consider the case of Chambers v. United States.  SCOTUS is weighing in on the case of a defendant who failed to appear for confinement and was subsequently charged with committing a “violent” crime under the Armed Career Criminal Act.  The justices listened to arguments as to whether the act of failure to appear for confinement is an aggressive or a passive act and whether it should contribute to a felony escape charge.

“Deondery Chambers, who pleaded guilty to being a felon in possession of a firearm, had prior convictions for drug distribution and for robbery and battery. He challenged whether his conviction under an Illinois escape law for failure to report for confinement was a violent felony that supplied the third predicate conviction for enhancement of his sentence under the ACCA.” [Laurel Newby, Law.com]

The attorney for the defendant asserted that failure to appear does not constitute a violent crime. However-

“Assistant to the Solicitor General Matthew D. Roberts argued, however, that failure to report carries the risk of violent confrontation between the defendant and police officers who may come to bring the defendant into custody. He compared it to burglary — an enumerated offense under the ACCA — calling it ‘purposeful, violent, and aggressive in the same way as burglary.'” [Laurel Newby, Law.com]

To his credit, Justice Scalia commented in a very reasonable manner-

“Justice Antonin Scalia pointed out that Chambers was serving his sentence only on the weekends. “[I]t’s not common sense that the person who has been guilty of a crime so gentlemanly that they only made him report to prison on the weekends would confront the policeman with violence when he comes.”

“This guy doesn’t sound to me like Jack the Ripper. He really doesn’t,” Scalia said. [Laurel Newby, Law.com]

Obviously the defendant is not a choir boy. He must serve his sentence and suffer some consequence for failure to appear. 

“Statistics show that the number of robberies increases during the holiday season,” Chief Justice Roberts pointed out. The audience in the courtroom laughed.

“There is no indication, Mr. Chief Justice, that any further robberies were committed [by Chambers] during that period,” Hochman said.

“Well, there is no indication he meant to spend time with his family over the holidays,” the chief justice retorted.” [Laurel Newby, Law.com]

What makes the situation so disturbing is the glee with which an aggressive organ of the state exhibits in asserting that a passive violation can be equated to a jail escape and can thus carry the threat of a felony conviction. Most disturbing is the comment by the Assistant to the Solicitor- “failure to report carries the risk of violent confrontation between the defendant and police officers who may come to bring the defendant into custody“.

What!!?? Because there may be future risk to a police officer, the defendant should be charged with a felony? Excuse me?? This sounds like the movie Minority Report.

There should be a consequence for Chambers inaction, but the assertion that it was a type of violent act is wildly out of line and sets a terrible precedent for civil liberties.

Blue State Phase Shift

Wow. Colorado became a blue state overnight. I wasn’t sure I’d live to see it. There is a big brooder nest of archconservatives in Colorado Springs as well as numerous Christian fundamentalist conservative organizations. The Springs has become a center of fear and loathing for frightened uberconservatives.  For a time they dominated the state government. Pity about the Springs. It is such a lovely place.

Boulder is famous within Colorado for being the states liberal, iconoclastic, and bohemian center. I’d say that characterization was true at one time. It was hit hard by the hippy movement in the 1960’s and in some ways never recovered. Today the town has become so ossified with wealthy and obstreperous gentry that the city has become one large home owners association of preening fussbudgets. The town has immobilized itself with municipal code to the point where only the very wealthy can build anything. Aspenization, some call it.

Jeepers. I remember when the Danskins movement hit Boulder. Those were the days.  Boulder fancies itself a laid-back, liberal Mecca, much like the Bay Area of CA, but in fact there is as much neurotic handwringing there as anywhere else.

So Colorado has a kind of dipolar condition wherein a political phase shift happens every generation or so. We have just witnessed a rebuke of Bush-Cheney conservatism and a switch to the blue phase.

The Bush II Surge. What does that remind you of?

Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Bush II’s celebrated military surge in Iraq roughly approximate the higher troop strength recommended by General Eric Shinseki in the first place? Doesn’t this lead in the direction of validating his assertions about troop strength? It seems to me that the merit of greater troop strength was evident several thousand years ago to a great many iron-age war lords.

I have heard little or no discussion of this point by the main stream show ponies yammering on the tube.

America’s Cold Civil War.

Note: The following has been determined to be a diatribe and not a screed. A screed would be several times longer.

This period in US history contains enough meat on the bone to keep both scholars and crackpots gnawing for decades. Collectively, we are in the overlap space of a sociological Venn diagram. The overlapping domains of economic calamity, political paranoia, shrinking international stature, and withering military expense combine like cyan, magenta, and yellow to form a white hot zone of malcontent.

It is no overstatement to say that many if not most Americans have chosen a part of the political pool they want to swim in. Listen to the voices at McCain/Palin rallys. Listen to people being interviewed upon leaving a McCain/Palin rally. They’re invariably angry and fearful. They distrust the “Liberal Media”. Do they mean to include Rupert Murdoch’s media empire? Do they also include most of the AM band talk radio programs? Is this the deep end of the pool or the shallow end?

I cannot help but conclude that conservatives are a fearful bunch. Study the McCain/Palin campaign advertising. Go back to any recent presidential campaign and recall Willie Horton or the Swift Boat attack on the democrats. Fear is the unifying ingredient in conservatism and the people who run the GOP machine know how to swing this stick.  Democrats do the Fear theme poorly and as a result, cannot summon the same kind of existential panic that the GOP can pull from their bag of tricks.

McCain is starting to see some of the visceral response to the possibility of Obama as president from underneath all of the rocks and behind all of the tarpaper shacks in the political back-40 acres. He has been openly challenged by angry citizens about the viability of his campaign.

That cartoon figurehead of the GOP, Rush Limbaugh, was practically apoplectic in his frustration with McCain. Strangely, this political freakshow impressario is now towing the line on McCain and has focused his leagions of ditto-zombies on bringing down the reputation of Obama with a mezmerising whisper campaign of slander.

I’m beginning to think that McCain wouldn’t be the worst kind of GOP president to have, especially if the conservatives of the land are this uncertain of him. But Palin as runner-up to the Whitehouse leaves me speechless. A country so brain-addled as to put Palin in national office is perhaps a country that needs to have its nose rubbed in it for a taste of its own collective stupidity. McCain/Palin in Washington may be what it takes for the complete implosion of the GOP.

Having watched the rise of Bush II and the conduct of the 2008 campaign, I have begun to understand what it might have been like to have lived in the period leading up to the American Civil War. This was a period intense division between citizens regarding deeply held beliefs. Civil and religous laws were invoked by both sides to justify their actions. Both Lee and Sherman believed that they marched in righteousness. It was brother fighting brother with a kind of hostility that is startling to people even today.

I sense a widespread and internal hostility along with a rigid adherence to doctrine that marks a divided country. I believe that America is in a type of cold civil war. There is a fulmination of anger and frustration out there that is beginning to partition the meaning of America into distinct translations that suit the adherents. 

Countries that experience economic and political upset are prone to the surfacing of latent fascism. Fascism is a kind of fever that spreads through the vectors of blame and jingoism. Anti-intellectualism and ethnic hatred are common manifestations of a country having a bout of fascism fever.

Witness the accusations of “elitism”  and the whisper campaign questioning the citizenship and religious affiliation of Obama. We have elite military forces, elite police forces, and elite athletes- why not elite chief executives? Why would we demand that politicians be just like the down-home folks like you see, say, running the Tilt-O-Whirl at the carnival? Don’t we want the chief executive to be someone who has honed his skills for public life? The Army has its War College. Why can’t the executive branch have its Administration school?

I think we have a civil cold war brewing in the USA right now and if 20-25 % of the workforce loses its paycheck because of the banking fiasco, I think there’ll be trouble. But no doubt, the DHS has thought of this and has soldiers and Darkwater contractors ready to deal with the sh**storm.

The Hapless Mr. Bush, Prince of the Whig Party.

The rhyme of history is ringing in my ears. An obscure, slender figure (sans stove pipe hat) has arrived from Illinois amidst the shattered remains of the Whig party.  Alright, that’s an exaggeration.

Our do-nothing, know-nothing warrier prince is nowhere to be seen. The Republican Paradigm, under the leadership of its very own cartoon character- Dubya- has had the misfortune of leaving its greasy fingerprints all over the collapsing financial system. And it’s not just politicians who have left their grubby smudges all over the shards of Grandma’s bone china. It includes the rank & file junior plutocrat-wannabe’s and MBA greedheads under the cloak of the GOP who have gamed the system with zero regard for its stability.

The great benefit of Laissez Faire as a moral philosophy is that one is excused from moral culpability. Nobody expects you to behave honorably because morality is orthogonal to the market. There is no overlap. You are expected to be self-centered and greed is just the normal operating condition. It’s all good, baby.

Mr Bush has not stepped forward to offer advice or reassurance to the citizenry. Bush is brave when he can order the Army to march in somewhere. But if the problem involves math, lookout.   And where is Mr Rove, Bush’s brain? I suppose he is absent because he is a specialist in election, not governance. He just delivers these disasters to the Whitehouse. He evidently holds little or no indemnity for his work.

Instead, this ideological weasel, this scoundrel-in-chief, is hunkered down out of sight during the election so as to avoid contaminating McCain/Palin with the foetid stink of GOP incompetence.

The framers of the constitution apparently never anticipated that the republic could be run aground by a frat-boy imbecile egged on by a pack of greedy, morally vacuous, shady characters from the military-industrial-finance-fundamentalist “sector”. 

The US constitution needs a provision for mid-term ejection of incompetent fools.

Lets All take a Deep Breath and Stop the Hyper-Analysis

Could it be that we Americans are over reacting to the problems in the market? The market is very much a collaborative structure resting heavily on trust in the power of the vast American economic engine. What we are witnessing right now is the multichannel, speed-of-light, propagation of panic through the miracle of electronic communication. Wagging tongues and chin music from our esteemed news commentators as well as we, the blogging community, are only fanning the fire of panic. The USA is on the verge of freaking itself into an economic collapse.

We don’t need additional and more concise descriptions of the foolishness of the players. That’s been done. I participated in this too. Ascerbic wit and biting rhetoric needs to be turned to constructive service. The first thing that we can do as bloggers citizens is to tone down the negative buzz and quit getting each other twittered. It serves no purpose and is counter-productive.

Citizens need to start asking constructive questions and make suggestions to all who will listen on how best to minimize panic and the damage it will cause to our economy. We need to take some time from blogging to focus on communicating with our friends and colleagues and members of congress to keep a steady hand in the coming months.

We also need to start asking about the details of the financial mess. Of the “bad mortgages” we hear about, how many are actually in default vs how many are just in the category of subprime? Are the banks possibly exaggerating the size of the losses? If banks are over extended in their loans, what fraction of their subprime loans are still in good graces? In other words, exactly how is the bad debt manifested? What is the true magnitude of the thing? How many mechanisms are available to bring this thing to a survivable landing?

It is not unheard of for a company to write off as much loss as it can if it is inevitable that it must report losses. An MBA friend pointed this out to me. He worked for a semiconductor firm whose habit was to maximize the losses if it could not avoid reporting a loss. They’d throw some of the ugly furniture overboard with the trash to clean house. To what extent is this happening now?

Maybe we can raise the bar a bit by helping to ask better questions. The best questions get the best answers.

Views on the Subprime Mortgage Mess

I have no real expertise in banking or real estate. Neither fields hold much interest for me. But I am interested in failure behaviour of large complex systems. There are a few posts out there that hold better than average insights on the current financial mess and I wanted to post links to them.

Jim Kunstler‘s blog, the full name of which is a bit too coarse to post here. None-the-less, Kunstler writes one of the best blogs out there on business topics.

Georgetown Law Faculty Blog has posted part of an article intended for the banking community. It is lifted from the American Banker which, sadly for me, requires a subscription. The theme supports my contention that business- banking included- should be treated as part of contemporary anthropology rather than an abstract exercise in arithmetic.

Business isn’t just an math exercise. There is a lot of anthropology to it. Unfortunately, anthropology isn’t on the curriculum of most MBA programs.  MBA’s worry me. They seem to be hustling the rest of us into an Orwellian future with methodologies taught by faculty members who are more interested in tidy formalisms than people. 

There are a lot of cocky bastards in business who are always certain, but frequently wrong. This banking mess is an example of what happens when they achieve a quorum. In fact, I think they have ascended to the level of mythical archetype.