Category Archives: Politics

Post Card From Ukraine

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Warning: Political content below.

I received a post card from Ukraine the other day because of a donation I made. It shows an event they are very proud of- the first attack on the Kerch bridge. I’m sure some Ukrainians feel abandoned by NATO’s refusal to let them join, but there is good reason behind NATO’s answer. Russia’s long-standing morbidly paranoid obsession with NATO and the “morally corrupt” West would only be validated by such a move. It would be destabilizing today and would definitely bring us closer to nuclear conflict. To do so today would immediately step NATO into direct conflict with Russia. Ok. Enough from Captain Obvious.

Source: A post card from Ukraine.

After the Russian revolution of 1918, the Bolsheviks tried to capture and Russify the Ukrainian territory. After several attempts in 1918-1922 they relented and Lenin finally consented to give them independence as a state within the Soviet Union. This was not because Lenin was interested in building a Ukrainian state, but rather it was a desperate move to mollify the Ukrainians while allowing the Bolsheviks to keep control over the territory. Lenin did not set out to create Ukraine.

During the early 1930’s, Stalin’s government was busy collectivizing the agricultural lands of the USSR. Collectivizing Ukrainian farmland meant getting peasants, especially those with greater than 8 acres of land (Kulaks) to turn over their land to the collective. This proved to be so messy that eventually Stalin closed off Ukraine and required internal passports. Thus began a 2-year famine leading to mass starvation. Ukrainian crops and animals were systematically removed by the Soviets in what were sometimes called “red trains.” During this time several million Ukrainians were starved to death, executed or imprisoned in a distant labor camp. This period covering 1932 to 1933 is called the Holodomor, or The Great Famine. You can read all about it on the interwebs.

As directed by Putin, Russia is presently attempting to extinguish Ukrainian culture again. The kidnapping of children and shipping them to be raised in Russian homes as well as other forms of Russification in the occupied territories of Ukraine are underway. For the Ukrainians, the Russian invaders are like the Borg from Star Trek in their needy desire to absorb them into their domain- “Resistance is futile.”

It should be remembered that the Ukrainian experience with Russia has been very bad for a long time.

Authoritarianism isn’t just a problem in some eastern European states. Seeds of it are being spread here in the US by a new brand of neoliberal GOP leaders. Many times they have the words “liberty” or “freedom” in the organizations names. This is a disingenuous and underhanded rhetorical maneuver in the same way that countries that use “Democratic” or “People’s Republic” in their names. Using the words “liberty” or “freedom” implies the sacred and wholesome attributes of Patriotism, motherhood and apple pie. Their utopian vision necessarily leads to the demolition of our present liberal democratic society. Neoliberalism is the road to oligarchy.

“Neoliberalism advocates a deregulated, capitalist, globalist market economy, reifies individual greed, and markets a watered-down version of Austrian economics to left-liberals. This ideology manifests as a hybrid between right-and-left liberalism, where the social ideals of left-liberals (particularly, social equality) is attacked via economics and a worldview which views people as only making choices for themselves.”

Source: Rationalwiki.org.

“Liberal democracy is the combination of a liberal political philosophy that operates under a representative democratic form of government. It is characterized by elections between multiple distinct political parties, a separation of powers into different branches of government, the rule of law in everyday life as part of an open society, a market economy with private property, universal suffrage, and the equal protection of human rights, civil rights, civil liberties and political freedoms for all people.” 

Source: Wikipedia.

Obviously, there is overlap between the two definitions above. Both neoliberals and democratic liberals can be unquestionably patriotic. Where they differ is in their respective overall theories of civilization. As a baby boomer, I watched the funeral of JFK, the Viet Nam War, the Chicago riots, the killings at Kent State, the deceitful Nixon years, all of the moon landings, and everything else to the present day. During this time, semiconductors went from discrete devices to integrated circuits and medicine has advanced to applied biochemistry. All of the sciences have taken advantage of improving technology and have advanced at incredible speed and the unit cost of advanced technology continues to drop. Of course there were bad times, but there were a great many good times as well. The overall result was a good standard of living for most people and freedom from most of the dread diseases of the past. Life spans have increased, an explosion of consumer goods & services providing employment and items making our lives more convenient.

According to the Pew Research Center, 44 % of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say that the US is giving too much aid to Ukraine. Not only that, but many Republicans are, if not outright admirers of Putin, view him more favorably than Biden, Harris, or Pelosi according to the Economist–YouGov poll of January, 2022. Liz Cheney refers to these people as the “Putin wing of the GOP.” In particular they admire his opposition to NATO, Western liberalism and LGBTQ+ rights. Is this because these Republicans have made a scholarly study of Putin against the backdrop of history and have concluded that he is worthy of their admiration over and above our democratic principles? Or are they parroting some sense of admiration drifting down from the GOP leadership? Decide for yourself.

Fascist, authoritarian leaders throughout history have always drawn the admiration of some fraction of a population. The 20th century alone had many standout examples and the trend continues to this very day. These leaders have convinced millions of people to ignore their own best interests and civil rights to support a cause that may have sounded exciting at a rally but led only to eventual oppression.

The Deep State

It appears that there really is a deep state in the US. It is the dark web of supporters, fund aggregators, lobbyists and fundraisers for the new ultra-conservative Republican party. These people wish to take us in the direction of more authoritarian and White Anglo Saxon Protestant (WASP) governance by gradually normalizing it. It’s like boiling the frog. This is not a Hollywood movie: the good guys could easily lose in the end. Once established, authoritarian regimes tend to last a long time, or at least, to the death of the tyrant. But sometimes the death of the tyrant only leads to continuation by another tyrant.

Trump and his ilk are succeeding in the normalization of regressive policy. Government-hating neoliberals and libertarians like Charles Koch and many others have been funding a movement for the demolition of most of the federal government in favor of a capitalist market-driven neoliberal Shangri-La. Remember when libertarian Grover Norquist said “I’m not in favor of abolishing the government. I just want to shrink it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub?” Libertarians and neoliberals aren’t anarchists, they just want the people with money and property to have the major input. Naturally, there is sympathy for this from many resource-heavy people.

Power has been defined as the ability to allocate resources. US national and global power is currently guided by taxpayer funded government. Both the private and public sectors add up to American hegemony. American business trends to increasing consolidation and is dominated by companies with the largest share of the resources. The natural end-state is monopoly. Business leaders piously repeat their appreciation of competition when, in reality, they are always trying to defeat the competition for market dominance. They will claim that market dominance is the ultimate result of achieving their fiduciary responsibilities- maximizing profit for the stockholders.

Boiling it down, libertarians and neoliberals want to abolish much of the state and federal government and focus on some kind of self-regulating market-based system. US economists always say that the market provides the most efficient use of capital. A market-based America will inevitably lead to a monopolistic corporate-based America. This is a system of economics, not governance. A plutocracy does not benefit the majority of us.

American corporations are not democratic in nature and make no pretense of it. They are autocracies ultimately answerable to the stockholders through a CEO and board of directors. State and federal government holds them answerable for adherence to the laws of the land. If there are a large number of burdensome regulations applying to the conduct of business, it is because sometime in the past, some individual or company has committed a harmful act leading to regulatory control. Regulations often stem from the dark side of past human behavior.

Back to Ukraine

Circling back, how does this talk of American politics relate to Ukraine? The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Chinese threats over Taiwan and the Indo-Pacific region represent a period when major autocracies are pushing their boundaries. Russia is only held back because of NATO and other Western countries. China is held back because of its economic dependence on exports to Western nations who, surprisingly, will band together against them if threatened. I’m sure that they have also noticed that an otherwise simple military action of rolling tanks and troops into a “passive” territory like Ukraine can turn sideways rapidly. If anything, Putin has accomplished the opposite of his strategic goal of splitting up the members of NATO. It is critical now that US politics NOT cause us to abandon world affairs which is where Trump was leading us. The reelection of Trump would be an epic disaster for the free world and democracy.

A United States that tolerates the aggression of Russia or China is a country that cedes its global influence to them. Despite having lots of ugly history and a long list of regrettable decisions, the US remains a place that people want to immigrate to. You don’t hear about boatloads of immigrants attempting to get into Russia. If the US leaves a global leadership vacuum, guess who will jump in to take its place? Another liberal democracy? Seems unlikely.

Americans should remember that in the bathwater of US history there is a baby that needs to be cared for and not thoughtlessly discarded.

Water Breaks in Tejas

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Local laws mandating that 10 minute water breaks be given to construction workers every 4 hours have been eliminated by Tejas Governor Greg Abbott and the legislature under HB2127 titled “Texas Regulatory Consistency Act.” The bill was put forward by Rep. Dustin Burrows, R-Lubbock. The bill is seen as an effort to push back on progressive local laws by cities like liberal-leaning Austin and Dallas where ordinances have been put into place to protect construction workers against the oppressive heat of Texas. Abbott said the bill will “provide a new hope to Texas businesses struggling under burdensome local regulations.”

Hyperbole,  /haɪˈpɝː.bəl.i/, noun; a way of speaking or writing that makes someone or something sound bigger, better, more, etc. than they are

In Section 2 of the bill, it says the legislature finds that:  “(1) the state has historically been the exclusive regulator of many aspects of commerce and trade in this state; (2)  in recent years, several local jurisdictions have sought to establish their own regulations of commerce that are different than the state’s regulations; and (3)  the local regulations have led to a patchwork of regulations that apply inconsistently across this state.“

The State claims to be the exclusive regulator of commerce and trade in the state pursuant to Section 5, Article XI, Texas Constitution. HB2127 was written to more closely define what kinds of codes local governments are free to do.

Given the state’s interest in commerce and trade, Section 6 removes any ambiguity in that regard. Labor regulations come under the heading of commerce and trade, so the state is the only lawgiver here.

HB 2127, SECTION 6.

Subchapter A, Chapter 1, Business & Commerce Code, is amended by adding Section 1.109 to read as follows:

Sec. 1.109. PREEMPTION. Unless expressly authorized by another statute, a municipality or county may not adopt, enforce, or maintain an ordinance, order, or rule regulating conduct in a field of regulation that is occupied by a provision of this code. An ordinance, order, or rule that violates this section is void, unenforceable, and inconsistent with this code.

Backers of the bill say that under OSHA, employers already have a duty to provide a safe workplace work place. A spokesman for the Associated Builders and Contractors of Texas said that “local rules impose a rigid scheme that, unlike OSHA guidelines, does not allow the flexibility needed to tailor breaks to individual job site conditions.”

However, according to David Michaels who led OSHA from 2009 to 2017, “Under OSHA law, it is employers who are responsible to make sure workers are safe,” said Michaels, now a professor at the George Washington University School of Public Health. “And we have compelling evidence that they are doing a very poor job because many workers are injured on the job, especially in Texas.”

Michaels also said that OSHA can issue a citation for a heat-related injury or death, but only after it has taken place. He also points out that OSHA has no national standard for heat related injury.

However, OSHA does have the General Duty Clause for situations where there are no specific standards applicable.

29 U.S.C. § 654, 5(a)1: Each employer shall furnish to each of his employees employment and a place of employment which are free from recognized hazards that are causing or are likely to cause death or serious physical harm to his employees.”

29 U.S.C. § 654, 5(a)2: Each employer shall comply with occupational safety and health standards promulgated under this act.

29 U.S.C. § 654, 5(b): Each employee shall comply with occupational safety and health standards and all rules, regulations, and orders issued pursuant to this Act which are applicable to his own actions and conduct.

The legislation to remove local laws regarding construction labor hazards was apparently motivated by the desire of the GOP to slap down islands of liberalism in Texas.

This graphic was produced by the Texas Tribune using data from Texas Department of State Health Services. Source: https://www.texastribune.org/2023/06/16/texas-heat-wave-water-break-construction-workers/

The chart above shows that known heat-related deaths in Tejas are up sharply in the last 2 years. Migrants and the homeless are hit particularly hard by hyperthermia.

I can understand the desire to smooth out the spotty nature of regulatory sovereignty across any state. It is really a matter of state vs local control and there shouldn’t be any confusing overlap of authority. Texas has chosen primacy over commerce and trade, of which labor is a part of. Somewhere in the process of this, someone noticed that regulations on water breaks mandated by municipal statute will be invalidated.

News stories came out with the shocking news that people working outdoors will not be guaranteed water breaks. The absence of statutory regulation on water breaks does not mean that workers will be denied water. Any employer who wants to retain employees will not deny water to employees. What has been invalidated are mandatory 10-minute water breaks every 4 hours. A workday is usually broken down into a break midmorning and midafternoon with lunch at around noon. These are 3 opportunities to grab a drink of water. A mandatory break after 4 hours past arrival places the break around lunch and quitting time anyway for an 8-hour day, so it is hard to imagine what advantage it gives for an 8-hour day. For longer days it would be beneficial. Employers who would deny water to employees should be punished.

Construction site managers object to rules that would interfere with things like concrete deliveries and crane work. Both are time sensitive activities. Even in the rough and tumble construction field, most companies will do the right thing and allow access to water at all times.

Texas HB2127 itself is silent on the matter of water breaks for workers. It simply reasserts authority already provided in the state constitution, namely as the, ” … exclusive regulator of many aspects of commerce and trade … ” and supersedes local statutes that overlap with what the state sees as its sovereignty. It seems a little sly, but not fundamentally corrupt.

So, the question becomes, will the State of Texas legislate mandatory water breaks for workers in hot environs? Given the rabid pro-business leanings of the state, it seems doubtful.

Am I taking the side of the Republicans on this? Goddammit, I hate to say it, but I suppose I am.

“… radical-left Democrats, Marxist, communists and fascists …”

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I’m running out of words to describe the deplorable ex-president #45. Just when you think he can’t add to his steaming heap of manure called a legacy, he shovels on more. It seems like there is no limit to the falsehoods he is willing to declare in public and no limit to what his supporters are willing to accept.

In regard to his indictments, he was recorded as saying something to the effect of “They’re not after me, they’re after you … I’m just standing in their way!” He is turning his indictments into the image of him sacrificing himself on the cross for the millions of Americans. A blood sacrifice for his beloved followers. If you supposed that this vaudevillian stunt was transparently phony to everyone, you’d be wrong.

#45 has been referring to “… radical-left Democrats, Marxist, communists and fascists …” in his gimmie-all-yer-lovin’ rallies. How absurd. Leftists aren’t fascists- they are antifascists. And by the way, what is wrong with being against fascism? #45 is using his usual mirror tactic of taking accusations against him and aiming it back at his critics. He knows very well that he isn’t being held accountable for truthfulness by the people he counts on. He tells big lies and repeats them over and over. It works for him. The very boldness of his lies somehow validates them in the minds of his followers.

Marxism and socialism have been in the scrapyard of history for a decades. The Soviet experiment with using socialism to get to communism was an abject failure. Stalin’s USSR was a brutal, murderous dictatorship tarted up to appear as a people’s paradise for those outside the iron curtain.

China today is a single party communist dictatorship that practices centralized control and nationalistic state capitalism. Previously, however, under the command of Chairman Mao Zedong, it is estimated that 40 to 80 million people died as a result of starvation, persecution, prison labor and execution in order to achieve his personal dream of a communist paradise.

It is difficult to find a communist state where people have the liberties that we in the US take for granted. It seems that to compel people to hand over their belongings to the state, a good bit of muscle is needed. Stalin found this out when he tried to collectivize Ukraine in the early 1930s. He ended up causing mass starvation and sending people to the gulags. The notion that the US is under threat from communist influence is without credibility. The odd communist may pop up now and then but they are little more than a curiosity not worthy of concern.

It is hard to know what Republicans regard as radical about Democrat ideals. Could it be that anyone who disagrees with today’s GOP is a “leftist radical”? If there are actual living, breathing Marxists among liberals in the US, they are likely to be lonely. There is Richard D Wolff at UMass, Amherst. Wolff is against capitalism and makes some fair points, but the momentum of history won’t be going his way any time soon. People still remember the Soviet experiment with Marxism-Leninism which was a disaster.

So·cial·ism: noun; a political and economic theory of social organization which advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.

Source: Google

Will citizens of the US ever acquiesce to turning over private property to a socialist government? Clearly, there is not a chance. The accusation that US liberals harbor socialistic desires is a Republican fever dream. The same with communism. The current population of US citizens would never embrace communism. Too many past instances of communist or socialist dictatorships in the world, and besides, Americans love their private property and would defend it with the umpteen hundred million guns under their pillows.

It is a Republican fantasy that only they are the true patriots in the US. This gives them license to posture as the only “real” Americans worthy of the title. This froze out as axiomatic for them many years ago, especially since the years of Mr. “trickle-down economics” Reagan.

Having social services is not the same as having socialism. A capitalist economy that provides a social safety net through taxation is not socialism. The capitalists still own their means of production, distribution and exchange.

Ordinary citizens in the US pay taxes to support the Army, Air Force, Space Force, Marines, Navy and Coast Guard. We also pay taxes and fees for upkeep on state and national infrastructure like roads, bridges, air traffic control and many other things. All of this goes to support our capitalist means of production, distribution and exchange.

Citizens pay exorbitant tuition to educate themselves to a level where they can contribute to operating our capitalistic enterprises. Payment for the common good isn’t borne exclusively by business. Both citizens and our capitalist enterprises benefit from this arrangement.

The business side should recall that citizens contribute to their corporate existence by funding their government contracts and by purchasing products that they off-shored to China to the detriment of US workers and security.

Chinese Espionage From Cuba

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This caught me by surprise. I have long suspected that Putin would establish a base in Cuba. Instead, the Chinese are working on it. According to the Financial Times, the Biden administration has disclosed that China has been conducting electronic espionage from Cuba since 2019. (This was reported by the Wall Street Journal 6/8/23, but the article is behind a paywall).

China’s spy balloon overflight of the US recently, if actually planned, was quite bold. They retort that US spy planes frequently fly along their borders. Setting up a spy base in Cuba has invaded what we have normally thought of as our back yard. What if China decides to conduct military training in the Gulf of Mexico? US territorial waters extend 12 nautical miles from shore. How should we react? The US supports Taiwan and has conducted military exercises in the waters between China and Taiwan. What would we have to stand on when we object?

Territorial waters. Credit: https://iilss.net/what-is-the-meaning-of-coast-in-law-of-the-sea-losc-and-customary-international-law/
Territorial and economic zone boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico. Credit: NOAA, https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/gulf-data-atlas/atlas.htm?plate=Marine%20Jurisdictions

China has been cooperating with Cuba in terms of increasing trade including telecom and biotech. They are reportedly spending big money in the Port of Mariel.

China continues to aggressively spread its influence across the world while it continues to plead for “mutual trust and regional peace, stability and development.”

Plainly, China is aiming for economic and military hegemony around the world. Putin’s Ukrainian invasion blunder will take many years for Russia to recover from. What a post-Putin Russia looks like isn’t clear. Given the widespread intimidation and apathy of the population, the hope for a non-authoritarian Russia seems remote.

Meanwhile, as America dithers in its toxic pool of domestic politics and fratricide, China is moving to make the 21st century as China’s century. China must believe that we Americans are a bunch of f*ckin’ idiots. Maybe they’re right. Political conflict in the US has become too intoxicating and financially lucrative for rational governance.

Pat Robertson is Dead

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Warning: A large dose of sarcasm is being dispensed.

American media mogul, founder of Regent University and Southern Baptist Preacher-man Pat Robertson has fallen over dead. He was constantly yammering on television and leveraging his Christian nationalist views on conservative US politics to the point where disasters like 9/11 were blamed on spiritual revenge. Yes, big guy upstairs, you know, the one who set the galaxies spinning and knows our every impure thought, is upset with many of us because of our woke political views. The GOP loves the hellfire and brimstone stuff. It naturally attracts a certain caste of voters (MAGA people) who eagerly line up to see God-fearin’ preachers and Republican officials openin’ up a can of whoop-ass on the libs. These are the voters who Republican candidates lust after. Robertson’s apocalyptic theology depended on this.

Are such people retrievable from their trip down the rabbit hole of petty magical mystical thinking? It doesn’t appear so.

A Linguist Talks About “Woke”

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Columbia University associate professor of linguistics in the Slavic Department John McWhorter was interviewed August 18, 2021, about the evolution of the word “woke.” It is found on a substack podcast called “Banished” by Amna Khalid with a written transcript. Below is a short reply by McWhorter on the history of “woke.”

JOHN McWHORTER: Well, woke actually goes back further than many people would think. It’s actually first documented in the early 60s and it was a Black slang. What it meant was politically aware of certain realities that operate largely below the surface, but have a determinative effect on, for example, the Black American condition. And so you might think, if you were you or me, that woke is about 10 years old. But actually people were saying it on the Black street long before that. It did not leave the Black street. Then, in roughly the 2000-teens, it jumped the rails and started being used by a certain kind of politically aware white person on the left. And what it meant at first in the general culture was somebody who understands certain basic leftist analysises [sic] of the world. What it really was, was a substitute for a term that had worn out. It replaced politically correct, which, if you’re just old enough now, you can remember was used without irony back in the late 70s and early 80s. And what it meant was that you have a basic understanding of liberal/leftist realities. Then it became PC. PCstarted being used as a slur to ridicule the kind of person who used that kind of ideology as a bludgeon in a smug kind of way. And so you couldn’t say politically correct without making somebody laugh by, say, 2010. 

Source: https://banished.substack.com/p/banished-the-evolution-of-woke#details

Before there was woke, there was “politically correct,” or PC, which was a pejorative used to disparage the liberal’s idea of social equality. PC was used as an occasion to flash sarcastic air quotes to telegraph the senders disdain for liberals. Right wingers love to suggest that liberals are candy-ass in their views. Turns out that liberals value kindness more than some which may actually be candy-assed now and then. But what of it?

“Make America Florida” WTF??

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All around universal genius and gazillionaire Elon Musk will be engaging Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a conversation that will include DeSantis’ announcement of his bid for the US presidency. The DeSantis krewe is obviously trying to distance themselves from #45, but not so much that they can’t poach his voters. They’re embracing capitalist folk hero and boy wonder Elon Musk’s endorsement in hopes of snagging MAGA voters who have grown weary of #45.

The DeSantis campaign has dreamed up the slogan “Make America Florida.” I’m incredulous at hearing this. Outside of Florida, “Florida Man” is a common reference to someone who is maniacal, irrational, delusional or insane. This is because, extrapolating from the news, Florida has an overabundance of them. More likely, there is more reporting of police notes than other places. Is it slander? Of course! It’s American humor unlikely to amuse outside of the US.

Credit: I don’t know, somewhere in the interwebs.

What remains to be seen is whether or not “Make America Florida” will catch on outside of the state. Especially in northern states outside of the old Confederacy. Some think that there is still a north/south divide in the US by some measures. I’ll leave that for others to expound on.

Applying DeSantis’ penchant for belligerent and punitive state politics, his presidency would surely be a setback for US democracy and a step forward for autocracy along the path the GOP is heading for. The GOP model of the US is not a place I’d care to live.

Stochastic Terrorism

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<begin rant>

Ran into a new term today- stochastic terrorism. According to Wiktionary–

Noun, (neologism, sociology, social media) The use of mass public communication, usually against a particular individual or group, which

  1. incites or inspires acts of terrorism which are statistically probable but happen seemingly at random
  2. perpetuates fear through coverage of seemingly random acts of terrorism

The word stochastic refers to being randomly determined–

I like words and this is a term that has a certain interesting tenor to it. I found it in this link. The author quoted Keith Olbermann –

“Donald Trump is a stochastic terrorist. He used stochastic terrorism to get somebody to attack the FBI after the Mar-a-Lago search and within days a man breached a local FBI headquarters to try to kill FBI agents. He used stochastic terrorism to get others to commit the insurrection of January 6. He used stochastic terrorism to inspire somebody to attack Democrats in 2018 and Cesar Sayoc sent out 12 liberals and he had a second list in his computer and I know because I was on it.“

“Trump is not just committing stochastic terrorism, he knows he is doing it, because it has worked for him, so well, and so often.“

The pristine definition of stochastic assumes truly random elements. The crowd responsive to #45 are self-selected and already aligned with him and sympathetic to his machinations, so any incitement is from a presorted set of people. #45’s casting about for someone in the crowd to take compelling action is obviously what he wants. It leads to media buzz focused on him. Stochastic Terrorism has a certain flourish that the word incitement lacks.

Understating #45’s words in milquetoast vocabulary like incitement is perhaps too feeble to capture our attention.

Keith Olbermann is a vocal far-left liberal by GOP measures. But maybe that’s because he pushes back openly and vigorously against conservatives. He may exaggerate a bit but conservatives are not strangers to exaggeration either.

<end rant>

Russia Spies on North Sea Infrastructure

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Reuters has reported that Russian ships have been observed in the area of North Sea energy resources of The Netherlands. MIVD head General Jan Swillens stated that “Russia is mapping how our wind parks in the North Sea function. They are very interested in how they could sabotage the energy infrastructure.”

The Reuters article went on to say “Dutch intelligence agencies MIVD and AIVD, in a joint report published on Monday, said critical offshore infrastructure such as internet cables, gas pipes and windmill farms had become the target of Russian sabotage activities.”

Norway is in a state of heightened alert because of recent appearances of unidentified drones buzzing over North Sea oil platforms, airfields and other sensitive sites. Norway has replaced Russia as a major supplier of natural gas. Norwegians believe that espionage, sabotage and false messaging are a means of intimidation. Though not a member of the EU, Norway mirrors the EU in many ways.

According to AP, seven Russian citizens have been arrested recently for flying drones or taking photographs of sensitive areas. In Norway it is illegal for Russian citizens or companies to takeoff, fly over or land on Norwegian Territory.

The clear intent of Russia Putin is to map out North Sea infrastructure for purposes of sabotage. Doing it in the open gives them the added benefit of intimidation. The UK and EU have considerable dependence on oil and gas from the North Sea. Plenty of communication cables lie there as well. Obviously, interruption of these resources will cause great economic and political disruption in affected countries. It is hard to believe, however, that Russia doesn’t already have data on the North Sea infrastructure.

Russia is sending a message that they consider North Sea Infrastructure a critical target for attack at some point. They know that winning a war is about removing your opponent’s will to fight. Collapsing your opponent’s economy and industrial base by shutting down the flow of energy is probably most likely very early in hostilities with the West. This should be nothing new to Western war planners. But to politicians and business leaders it might be a wakeup call.

Putin’s criminal invasion of Ukraine has given the West motivation to assess its defensive resources and move to beef them up. Putin has also given the West a picture of how the future world order could look. The West has ignored or underestimated the threat that Russia poses at its own peril. We’ve already begun Cold War II.

Putin’s Russia excels at brinksmanship and psychological operations. The Putin/Ukraine war is stalled for the Russian land forces at present, but he still has assets for conventional air and sea operations. Building on his lies that the “western Nazi’s” pose an existential threat to Russia, he can deflect attention elsewhere at least for internal consumption.

It is my sense that Putin and others like the NPRK would like nothing more than to be sure the continental US takes battle damage in the next big war. Just like our nuclear submarines, Russia’s large fleet of nuclear submarines can navigate around the world quietly in stealth. They can park off the US coasts and deliver whatever they want.

The West must absolutely stand firm on resisting Putin’s threats and holding back the conquest of his neighbors. I believe that Putin will remain a serious threat to the West as long as he is alive. His crimes are so extensive now that he can never safely retire from office and live in a dacha somewhere. It seems doubtful that his successor will be much different.

An open question is, why would Russia think that the West would preemptively attack them? Because we yearn for their vast stretches of taiga? Maybe they fear for their hydrocarbon reserves? Let ’em have their oil and gas. It is theirs. An attack on the Russian homeland would go nuclear early in a conflict. There is no future for anyone in nuclear war. Once that genie gets out of the bottle, there is no stuffing him back in like we did post-WWII. Like anyone else, the Russian people are nice folks. Except for their government. Rancid leadership is something their people will have to overcome.

China Swoops In As Peacemaker

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The Chinese leader Xi Jinping has arrived in Russia to meet with Putin. Ostensibly, this is part of a Chinese effort to lend support to Putin and urge a peaceful settlement with Ukraine. Putin and his propaganda machine have painted themselves into a corner with his dirty little war. Putin either needs to make some decisive victories or find an “honorable” off-ramp to declare victory.

Here is the obligatory quote from the Art of War by Sun Tzu: “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free”. In this case, Putin should be allowed to retreat to save face and lives. The Soviets got bogged down in Afghanistan and eventually left, but only after 10 difficult years. It is hard to imagine Putin backing out after only a year or two in Ukraine. To be fair, Putin has offered to withdraw his troops if certain conditions are met. Zelenski has declined Putin’s offer of what amounts to a sh*t sandwich.

The combination of the Russian military’s well documented and poor performance, Putin’s strategic blunder and subsequent economic hardships brought upon Russia would be difficult, but not impossible, to cover up. And, it contrasts strongly with his caricature as a hyper-masculine tough guy. However, the Russian propaganda machine is talented, well-oiled and enthusiastic.

China is obviously seeking to replace US hegemony with their own hegemony across the world. China has been grooming Africa using economic and infrastructure aid. This provides access to minerals and sites to occupy in a conflict. China is able to plan over the long term and a role as peacemaker in the Putin-Ukraine war can only help the cause of international influence. Contrast that with our (the US) role as international policeman. We’ve left a good deal of devastation around the world since WWII in the name of freedom, but we’ve done much good as well. Unfortunately, bad news seems to have a longer shelf life than good.

For China, part of the calculation in determining Russian military aid is the economic effect of entering into a proxy war against one of its main customers, the US. Supplying arms to Russia will be noticed rapidly on the battlefield. This could have an escalating effect on the level of aid supplied by the NATO states. I suspect that China already sees itself in an existential struggle with the US so maybe the decision to supply military aid will be easier. Military aid could be in the form of munitions, armored vehicles, guns of all sorts or just aid in intelligence gathering.

The shooting wars in Korea and Viet Nam as well as the NATO/USSR Cold War were waged by the US side because of something known as the “Domino Theory“. In short, western nations observed expansionism by the two principle communist states- the USSR and China. This expansionism was in the form of client states adopting communist governance shaped like China or the USSR. Western distrust of the USSR after WWII festered into serious paranoia within the US, giving way to a policy of intervention to prevent the expansion of the communist sphere.

All of this coincided with the development of efficient nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles like land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and long-range bombers- our Nuclear Triad. Both Russia and China have their nuclear triads. It turns out that inventing a nuclear weapon was much more difficult and expensive than reverse engineering them. Also, the abundance of uranium deposits around the world is greater than many considered.

Either China sees Russia as a like-minded strategic partner or it is worried about what it might become if Putin is overthrown. Maybe both.