Category Archives: Politics

Attacking Russia. WTF?

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I’m about to say some things that may seem (or are) hopelessly naive. But sometimes we should stop and reexamine our basic assumptions.

So, I have to ask the question. Why would anyone in their right mind contemplate an unprovoked attack on Russia? The present-day Russian and former Soviet leadership has always made a show of holding back what they call “western aggression”. They justify their military buildup by claiming that NATO is an immediate and existential threat to their security. But seriously, who the hell would want to control Russia? They fear the push back on their own behavior which is to threaten the west. It would be a total disaster for everyone.

Yes, NATO is a threat insofar as they hold the line against Russian expansionism. Should states succumb to Russian control just because the leadership of Russia says so? Obviously not. Russian control seems to come with the loss of freedoms, stultified economic progress and political oppression. Putin’s war was initially justified, at least by what is available in the western press, as a strike on incipient Nazism in Ukraine which Putin declared as a direct threat to the security of the Russian state.

Everyone outside of Russia realizes that this is a bald-faced lie cynically devised to justify Putin’s dream of empire.

For arguments sake let’s say NATO attacks Russia for whatever reason and let’s say NATO wins. What have they won? A giant collapsed country full of permafrost and mosquitos populated with angry citizens living in economic collapse. The US and coalition forces couldn’t even control Afghanistan with its population of neolithic religious maniacs and their opium poppy fields. And we left the poppy fields intact too!!What chance would there be for western forces controlling a defeated Russia? It would be like the dog who caught the car. What next?

The same question applies to Putin. If he conquers and occupies Ukraine and then the other former Warsaw Pact countries, what will he have gained? Apparently, Putin guessed that they would roll over and comply. That was the state of affairs during the days of the Soviet Union. The USSR had a powerful and penetrating police apparatus with a network of remote prison labor camps and little presumption of innocence.

Unfortunately for Putin, Ukraine didn’t just roll over and concede. They are fighting back against certain authoritarian control and loss of their Ukrainian heritage. In doing so, it is revealed to the world that Putin’s conventional military is a paper tiger. Military planners the world over are taking notes on the modern conduct of war. Resources that might have modernized the Russian military have been funneled elsewhere for a long time.

Russia’s nuclear forces, however, are something to worry about. However, Putin and his cronies know about Mutual Assured Destruction. This principle has prevented nuclear war since Russia got the bomb. Putin knows that if he releases nuclear war shots, the resulting nuclear exchange will not only devastate all participants, but will bounce the rubble a few times as well. Even if land-based missiles are destroyed, the respective submarine fleets can continue to unleash nuclear hellfire at leisure. The meaning of victory becomes very hazy here.

As always, the Russian model of conquest seems to impose brutal authoritarian control to suppress opposition. Not because there is something wrong with the Russian people. But Russian leadership has been so oppressive for so long that there is no institutional template for alternative leadership.

This is very simplistic, but does Russia know that nobody wants control of their country? Imagine the folly of it. Since the days of Stalin they have worked themselves into a lather about the west. The cold war was a game of weapon/countermeasure cycles that has quietly developed into Cold War II. It is all so unnecessary.

I think it is fair to say that everyone wants a peaceful Russia that can participate in world trade, tourism, science and cultural affairs. A reclusive and paranoid Russia that is angrily stamping its feet and issuing threats to its neighbors is a Russia that will remain unhappy and dangerous. Decent people and rich culture are abundant in Russia. Their leadership doesn’t let that shine through.

Yes, we understand that Russia was viciously invaded by the Nazis some years back but they prevailed. At some point everyone has to look to a prosperous future. Yes Russia, this includes you. There is no similar threat to Russia in the world today. Just because the west responds to Russian provocations doesn’t mean that there is an intent to attack. Just because the economic engines of the west outperform them at present doesn’t imply imminent attack either.

I would love to visit Russia as a tourist. Russian hospitality is first rate and the countryside is beautiful. Many people around the world would love to visit. But until the people can break free of oppressive leadership, it will remain a hermit kingdom in the manner of NPRK.

Interview of Timothy Snyder on the Putin-Ukraine War

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An interview with the historian Timothy Snyder has appeared in the March 9th, 2023, internet issue of Der Spiegel International. The interview was conducted By Ann-Dorit Boy und Eva-Maria Schnurr. Snyder has very strong Euorpean history credentials with a Ph.D. in History from the University of Oxford. He is presently the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University and a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.

Photo from Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_D._Snyder

The interview starts with an important question for Germany-

“As Germans accept the debate on Putin’s terms, they can miss the obvious point: If we care about the comparison, we have to note right away that it is Putin’s Russia that is behaving more like Germany in 1941: Moscow, like Berlin then, claims that a neighboring people and state do not exist; Moscow, like Berlin then, is fighting a war of aggression; Moscow, like Berlin then, is carrying out eugenic, deportation, and mass killing policies. If Russia is behaving as the Germans did in 1941, then the Germans now have a second chance to respond to fascism. Will they take that second chance?“

Snyder makes the point that German reticence to aid Ukraine in the war is what Putin wants.

“In Russia, his [Putin’s] intention is to build a cult of innocence: No matter what we do, it must be justified, because we are always the righteous victim. Of course, this contradicts the actual history of the Second World War, in which Stalin chose to ally with Hitler, and in which Ukrainians actually suffered more than Russians, by any measure. Putin is also seeking to exploit the historical memory of Germans. He wants to trigger the German reflex that Russians must be victims and Germans must be aggressors.“

I will end here because the article needs no explanation from me. It’s worth the read.

Flaxen Klaxon is the New Speaker Pro Tempore

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This is revolting. A truly sad day for America. Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy has appointed Marjory Taylor Greene (MTG) as the new Speaker Pro Tempore. In this position, MTG will stand in for Speaker McCarthy when he is absent.

We have to conclude that this is the best our democratic republic can muster at this time. Of all of the capable people in the land, MTG is elevated into the spot. This venomous imbecile. I’m out of words.

Florida Clicks Another Notch Towards Authoritarianism

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State Senator Brodeur of the Republic of DeSantistan has introduced a bill that, among other things, proposes requirements on compensated bloggers. How are compensated bloggers different from professional journalists? Not being a constitutional scholar, it escapes me how this doesn’t violate the first amendment. You remember that one, it is just next to the 2nd amendment.

160 (2) If a blogger posts to a blog about an elected state
161 officer and receives, or will receive, compensation for that
162 post, the blogger must register with the appropriate office, as
163 identified in paragraph (1)(f), within 5 days after the first
164 post by the blogger which mentions an elected state officer.

Bloggers receiving compensation for their posts about elected state officers must register with the state and submnit a report-

181 (d) The reports must include all of the following:
182 1. The individual or entity that compensated the blogger
183 for the blog post.
184 2. The amount of compensation received from the individual
185 or entity, regardless of how the compensation was structured.

============================

Below is the text of the bill. The bill reads-

Florida Senate – 2023 SB 1316
By Senator Brodeur
10-00366B-23 20231316__
Page 1 of 9
CODING: Words stricken are deletions; words underlined are additions.
1 A bill to be entitled

2 An act relating to information dissemination; amending
3 s. 45.031, F.S.; deleting a provision requiring a
4 judicial notice of sale to be published for a
5 specified timeframe on a publicly accessible website;
6 amending s. 50.0311, F.S.; specifying that a
7 governmental agency may use the public website of a
8 county to publish legally required advertisements and
9 public notices if the cost for such publication is not
10 paid by or recovered from a person; creating s.
11 286.31, F.S.; defining terms; requiring bloggers to
12 register with the Office of Legislative Services or
13 the Commission on Ethics, as applicable, within a
14 specified timeframe; requiring such bloggers to file
15 monthly reports with the appropriate office by a
16 certain date; providing an exception; specifying
17 reporting requirements; authorizing a magistrate to
18 enter a final order determining the reasonableness of
19 circumstances for an untimely filing or a fine amount;
20 requiring that the Legislature and the Commission on
21 Ethics adopt a specified rule; providing penalties for
22 late filing; prohibiting the assessment of a fine for
23 the first time a report is not timely filed, under
24 specified conditions; authorizing bloggers to appeal a
25 fine within a specified timeframe; specifying the
26 appeal process; authorizing bloggers to request that
27 the appropriate office waive the reporting requirement
28 under specified conditions; providing that unpaid
29 fines for a specified timeframe may be recovered

30 through the courts of this state; providing an
31 effective date.
32
33 Be It Enacted by the Legislature of the State of Florida:

35 Section 1. Subsection (2) of section 45.031, Florida
36 Statutes, is amended to read

<<< Some code relating to government access to publicly available websites is omitted for clarityt. >>>

286.31 Blogger registration and reporting.—
139 (1) As used in this section, the term:
140 (a) “Blog” means a website or webpage that hosts any
141 blogger and is frequently updated with opinion, commentary, or
142 business content. The term does not include the website of a
143 newspaper or other similar publication.
144 (b) “Blogger” means any person as defined in s. 1.01(3)
145 that submits a blog post to a blog which is subsequently

146 published.
147 (c) “Blog post” is an individual webpage on a blog which
148 contains an article, a story, or a series of stories.
149 (d) “Compensation” includes anything of value provided to a
150 blogger in exchange for a blog post or series of blog posts. If
151 not provided in currency, it must be the fair-market value of
152 the item or service exchanged.
153 (e) “Elected state officer” means the Governor, the
154 Lieutenant Governor, a Cabinet officer, or any member of the
155 Legislature.
156 (f) “Office” means, in the context of a blog post about a
157 member of the Legislature, the Office of Legislative Services
158 or, in the context of a blog post about a member of the
159 executive branch, the Commission on Ethics, as applicable.
160 (2) If a blogger posts to a blog about an elected state
161 officer and receives, or will receive, compensation for that
162 post, the blogger must register with the appropriate office, as
163 identified in paragraph (1)(f), within 5 days after the first
164 post by the blogger which mentions an elected state officer.
165 (3)(a) Upon registering with the appropriate office, a
166 blogger must file monthly reports on the 10th day following the
167 end of each calendar month from the time a blog post is added to
168 the blog, except that, if the 10th day following the end of a
169 calendar month occurs on a Saturday, Sunday, or legal holiday,
170 the report must be filed on the next day that is not a Saturday,
171 Sunday, or legal holiday.
172 (b) If the blogger does not have a blog post on a blog
173 during a given month, the monthly report for that month does not
174 need to be filed

175 (c) The blogger must file reports with the appropriate
176 office using the electronic filing system:
177 1. As provided in s. 11.0455 if the blog post concerns an
178 elected member of the Legislature; or
179 2. As provided in s. 112.32155 if the blog post concerns an
180 officer of the executive branch.
181 (d) The reports must include all of the following:
182 1. The individual or entity that compensated the blogger
183 for the blog post.
184 2. The amount of compensation received from the individual
185 or entity, regardless of how the compensation was structured.
186 a. The amount must be rounded to the nearest $10 increment.
187 b. If the compensation is for a series of blog posts or for
188 a defined period of time, the blogger must disclose the total
189 amount to be received upon the first blog post being published.
190 Thereafter, the blogger must disclose the date or dates
191 additional compensation is received, if any, for the series of
192 blog posts.
193 3. The date the blog post was published. If the blog post
194 is part of a series, the date each blog post is published must
195 be included in the applicable report.
196 4. The website and website address where the blog post can
197 be found.
198 (4) Notwithstanding any other law, a magistrate is
199 authorized to enter a final order in determination of the
200 reasonableness of circumstances for an untimely filing of a
201 required report and the amount of a fine, if any.
202 (5) Each house of the Legislature and the Commission on
203 Ethics shall adopt by rule, for application to bloggers, the

204 same procedure by which lobbyists are notified of the failure to
205 timely file a report and the amount of the assessed fines. The
206 rule must also provide for, but need not be limited to, the
207 following provisions:
208 (a) A fine of $25 per day per report for each day late, not
209 to exceed $2,500 per report.
210 (b) Upon receipt of an untimely filed report, the amount of
211 the fine must be based upon the earlier of the following:
212 1. The date and time that the untimely report is actually
213 received by the office.
214 2. The date and time on the electronic receipt issued
215 pursuant to s. 11.0455 or s. 112.32155.
216 (c) The fine must be paid within 30 days after the notice
217 of payment due is transmitted, unless an appeal is filed with
218 the office. The fine amount must be deposited into:
219 1. If the report in question relates to a post about a
220 member of the Legislature, the Legislative Lobbyist Registration
221 Trust Fund;
222 2. If the report in question relates to a post about a
223 member of the executive branch, the Executive Branch Lobby
224 Registration Trust Fund; or
225 3. If the report in question relates to a post about
226 members of both the Legislature and the executive branch, the
227 lobbyist registration trust funds identified in subparagraphs 1.
228 and 2., in equal amounts.
229 (d) A fine may not be assessed against a blogger the first
230 time a report for which the blogger is responsible is not timely
231 filed. However, to receive this one-time fine waiver, all
232 untimely filed reports for which the blogger remains responsible

233 for filing must be filed with the office within 30 days after
234 the notice of untimely filing was transmitted to the blogger. A
235 fine must be assessed for any subsequent late-filed reports.
236 (e) The blogger is entitled to appeal a fine, based upon
237 reasonable circumstances surrounding the failure to file by the
238 designated date, by making a written request to the office for a
239 hearing before the magistrate from the Second Judicial Circuit.
240 Any such request must be made within 30 days after the notice of
241 payment due is transmitted to the blogger. The office shall
242 transmit all such timely, written requests to the chief judge of
243 the Second Judicial Circuit along with the evidence the office
244 relied on in assessing the fine. The magistrate, after holding a
245 hearing, shall render a final order, upholding the fine or
246 waiving it in full or in part.
247 (f) A blogger may request that the filing of a report be
248 waived upon good cause shown based on reasonable circumstances.
249 The request must be filed with the office, which may grant or
250 deny the request.
251 (g) Fines that remain unpaid for a period in excess of 100
252 days after final determination are eligible for recovery through
253 the courts of this state.
254 Section 4. This act shall take effect upon becoming a law.

Putin’s War of Conquest

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The US needs many things, but now in particular we need a government that will strongly support Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Putin. Containment of Russia’s latest brutal dictator is a must for continued liberal democracy in the west. The US/NATO partnership is the necessary bulwark from the world’s two giant, grasping autocracies- China and Russia. Both will continue to be a challenge to the very existence of liberal democracies around the world for many decades to come.

Both China and Russia are weary of US hegemony in the world and seek to knock the US down and replace it with their own hegemony. The widespread use of English as the “lingua franca” of the world, US popular culture as well as the preeminence of the US dollar in world trade grates on their national pride. To coexist with US hegemony is to give consent. Both nations want to be masters of the realm. Simple human nature.

Perhaps Russia will emerge on the world stage one day as a guiding influence for decent civilization. But, that event will happen only after Russian citizens steer away from their long tolerance of autocratic and brutal leadership. It is up to the Russian citizenry to fix the Putin problem. Putin will not peacefully die in retirement. He’ll die in power like most of the former leaders of the Soviet Union from Lenin onwards did. Gorbachev had the grace to step down peaceably after he dissolved the Soviet Union. Somehow the pillars of support Putin has constructed over the years will have to crumble away. However, there is no guarantee that his successor will be much different.

The US had to be shaken from its isolationist trance to join in with WWI and WWII. Today, president #45 and others were showing a definite trend towards isolationism in the years prior to the onslaught of Putin’s savage war in Ukraine. #45’s tolerance and admiration of Putin was peculiar and very suspicious looking. Treating Putin like buddy is the wrong tack. George W. Bush said he peered into Putin’s eyes and saw his soul. Bush later said he regretted having said that.

It is not in the interest of the US or Europe to stand back as Putin goes on a land grab along the Russian frontier. So far Putin’s war has not devolved into a WWIII. The NATO countries have wisely avoided actions that would trigger a direct shooting war with Russia while at the same time sending resources to Ukraine. Yes, it is a proxy war. This support is expensive but it must continue.

With China showing interest in supporting Putin, we may find ourselves in a proxy war with them as well. However, China has much to lose in as much as the US is one of it’s biggest customers. Whatever the case, we’re on the way with Cold War II.

Henry Kissinger (HK) made waves at the Davos Conference in May of 2022 when he suggested that Ukraine and Russia return to the status quo ante. In a July 2, 2022 interview with HK in The Spectator, interviewer Andrew Roberts reports-

“If Russia stays where it is now, it will have conquered 20 per cent of Ukraine and most of the Donbas, the industrial and agricultural main area, and a strip of land along the Black Sea. If it stays there, it will be a victory, despite all the setbacks they suffered in the beginning. And the role of NATO will not have been as decisive as earlier thought.

The other outcome is an attempt made to drive Russia out of the territory it acquired before this war, including Crimea, and then the issue of a war with Russia itself will arise if the war continues.

The third outcome, which I sketched in Davos, and which, in my impression, Zelensky has now accepted, is if the Free People can keep Russia from achieving any military conquests and if the battleline returns to the position where the war started, then the current aggression will have been visibly defeated. Ukraine will be reconstituted in the shape it was when the war started: the post-2014 battleline. It will be rearmed and closely connected to NATO, if not part of it. The remaining issues could be left to a negotiation. It would be a situation which is frozen for a while. But as we’ve seen in the reunification of Europe, over a period of time, they can be achieved.”

HK supports the “equilibrium” of status of quo ante to the pre-February 24, 2022, borders rather than an attempt to defeat Russia. I think Ukraine would only agree to this if things were looking bad for them. As Putin has demonstrated, he lies all of the time. He is in no way dependable in a peace agreement.

Whatever it is that Putin responds to, we have to assume that overwhelming and superior firepower are high on the list. The US and NATO must present an iron fist in reply to Russian aggression. Putin has established himself as one of the major bad actors in modern times. The man’s ambition and swaggering macho is and will remain a threat to democratic states.

Modern Russian leadership has a pattern of oppression and intelligence gathering along with institutions to apply it everywhere they can. They are masters of propaganda and the psychology of intimidation. America is outclassed in the propaganda field.

American notions of social order were influenced by the British. The oppression of monarchy on the American colonies served as a negative example of how to govern. But, the British have the Magna Carta of 1215 in their history which was an agreement between a group of barons and King John of England providing protection of certain rights. The original charter was quickly annulled but was reissued in 1216. Over the years the charter became a part of political life in England.

The point of this history lesson is to suggest that Russian history has no similar example of democratic leanings. What did happen in 1861 in Russia was the Emancipation Proclamation by Emperor Alexander II abolishing serfdom. This edict was one of many liberal reforms during his reign (1855 to 1881) and gave 23 million serfs their liberty. While not democratic, it was a positive step change in Russian society. Another step change for Russia came with the Bolshevik revolution if 1917. Unfortunately, this gave rise to the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) and all of the subsequent Stalinist and cold war turmoil that followed. Russia needs another step change to shake loose the dictatorship/kleptocracy model that Putin has put in place. Whatever it is that serves the needs of a peaceful Russia, it needs to arrive soon.

The burnin’ ring of fire

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The Norfolk Southern train derailment and fire in East Palestine, OH, has spread into the political dumpster. By not appearing near the crash site promptly, both Biden and Buttigieg are feeling the heat of the GOP panic machine. The single plank on the GOP platform is to knock down Democrats at every opportunity. While the news organs of the GOP are busy trying to blame the Biden administration for the accident, fire and contamination, citizens are expressing dismay over not knowing what to do going forward. They aren’t receiving much advice or direction from EPA about how much they should be worried about contamination and exposure to the released chemicals. In fact, on the ground it has been hard to see the hand of government anywhere. Their frustration is normal and understandable. I would be frustrated too.

Let’s step back a minute and examine the situation from 50,000 ft. The last thing we want in government is for a proper response to an emergency of this scale to require the president to personally lead the emergency response. The same is true for the Secretary of Transportation. Good leaders delegate responsibility to specialists for situations like this. Good leaders are watchful but stay out of the way of the experts. Good leaders make sure that the people on the ground have the resources they need to do their jobs. Ok, Biden didn’t respond publicly to the situation early enough, but that is not to say that things weren’t happening. But, he has 330,000,000 American back-seat drivers to make happy. That’s his job.

Let’s remind ourselves that Biden and NATO are also busy trying to prevent the start of WWIII.

As with an emergency of any scale, it takes responders some time to understand the situation and then to bring resources to bear. In the mean time, the NTSB was promptly dispatched and has already published preliminary report RRD23MR005 on the event. It is very interesting to see that many of the safety systems worked. The overheated wheel was detected and an emergency braking procedure was put into action just before the derailment occurred.

Ok, Biden and Buttigieg could have been quicker to publicly extend sympathy and the promise of relief. Complaining about this is like accusing grandma of not giving you a kiss while she was trying to put out a fire in the kitchen. But contrast this PR error of omission with the antics of #45 in Puerto Rico after the recent hurricane. Remember how he tossed rolls of paper towels as mock support during an interview down there? MAGA people have no leg to stand on with presidential expressions of sympathy.

From Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dose%E2%80%93response_relationship

As far as what kind of toxic threat there is to humans and what potential environmental insult there will be, the situation has not fully played out yet. This will need to be studied for years. There is acute toxicity and there is chronic toxicity. With most chemicals there will be a clear dose-response relationship with chemical dosing if you choose the right experiment to do. However, that relationship can become quite uncertain with low dosing. The health effects of exposures from the East Palestine derailment cannot be measured with high precision over the long haul. Genuine toxic effects are over-printed on a background of natural disease. Diseased tissues do not have little signs that say “I was caused by vinyl chloride dosing”. Histology can characterize cell types and correlate them with known chemical insult, but only a jury can say if any particular conclusion will hold up in court. With toxicity effects, certainty is not always what you get.

Paracelsus said in 1538 that “All things are poison, and nothing is without poison; the dosage alone makes it so a thing is not a poison“. That observation is still true today.

Hazardous Metaphor On Fire in Ohio

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When I think “train wreck” I usually think of #45’s presidency. But here I refer to the actual Feb 3, 2023, Norfolk Southern train wreck in East Palestine, OH. A very long train carrying, among other things, tankers of hazardous chemicals had a derailment and fire near the small town of East Palestine, OH, along the southwest Pennsylvania border. It was a true calamity releasing hazardous chemicals, some of which caught fire and burned for days. It isn’t clear as yet as to what burned and what didn’t. The extent of pollution will eventually be released by authorities and monitored for years to come.

Early reports have claimed that the accident started with an overheated wheel bearing. It would be interesting learn how this could lead to a derailment. The root cause analysis will be interesting.

According to Wikipedia–

NTSB chair Jennifer Homendy explained that the train in this accident would not have been required to utilize the ECP braking system even if the FAST Act was not repealed, because the term high-hazard flammable train means a single train transporting 20 or more tank cars loaded with a Class 3 flammable liquid. As it had only three such placarded train cars, the derailed train did not meet the qualifications of a “high-hazard flammable” train.

ECP stands for Electronically Controlled Pneumatic brakes. The Wikipedia page describes the pathetic political kerfuffle over these brakes and how certain groups fought the requirements for them.

Photo from Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ohio_train_derailment

The Washington Post released a piece, dated Feb 18, 2023, about it showing some interesting pictures. One aerial shot captures the wreckage along with what the cars were carrying. A security camera caught the train moving along with a large fire blazing under one car minutes before entering town. The video has since been removed.

The burning vinyl chloride (and … ?) produced a toxic plume that by some accounts was also corrosive. I assume this to be due to the burning of an organic chloride releasing hydrochloric acid vapors. According to Wikipedia, of the 150 cars in the train some 38 train cars were derailed.

Substances in cars that were derailed according to the Washington Post-

  • Vinyl chloride
  • Polyethylene
  • Dipropylene and propylene alcohol
  • Semolina (a wheat flour)
  • Polyvinyl chloride (PVC)
  • Ethylhexyl acrylate
  • Petroleum lubricating oil
  • Diethylene glycol
  • Isobutylene
  • Butyl acrylate
  • Benzene

Much was made in the news about burning vinyl chloride and noxious fumes, but I haven’t heard an accounting of what actually burned. Any release of acrylate monomers is especially unfortunate since as a group, they can be nasty lachrymators. This will take years to get through the courts.

Nuclear Dictator Putin

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This essay is written for Americans.

Here we are, it’s 2023 and the US has an old opponent run by a strongman dictator with nuclear weapons who is fond of reminding us about his nuclear arsenal. There is nothing like the Central Committee of the USSR that Putin has to contend with. Putin is not only angry with the US about aiding Ukraine, but he clearly wants to punish the US because of our continuing hegemony and a series of historical slights. He very much wants the US to experience suffering on our own territory like Russia did in WWII. Putin has always been unhappy with the collapse of the USSR and with what happened in the country thereafter. Putin’s theory of the world places Russia at the top of the great empires in history. His would be an authoritarian empire.

There has been a lot of knowledgeable commentary on what Putin may have concluded about western countries leading up to the invasion. I’ll defer to my betters in this.

Much propaganda has been issued by Russian state organs over the Putin years heralding the moral corruption and a disintegrating political structure within the US. He sees a US that is an aging empire in decay. Despite his large intelligence apparatus, he overestimated the capacity of his conventional forces and underestimated the resolve of Ukrainians. He apparently guessed that his invasion would be met with an indecisive NATO dithering away and only able to muster small support for Ukraine. His mistakes have proved to the world that the Russians are not 10 feet tall after all.

My feeling is that the US and NATO must be extremely watchful through this period of history. Putin’s government is unlike any adversary we’ve had before. They have already put effort into sowing confusion in US media and continue to try to influence our elections. They are likely to have SLBM submarines lurking off our coasts in readiness. Even worse, there are many within the current US GOP that seem to be willing to support or tolerate authoritarian regimes.

For as much as Putin is making veiled threats of nuclear conflict, he surely knows that if there are nuclear missiles headed for the US, we will not allow our missile fleet to be destroyed sitting in their silos. Only the first nuclear weapon unleashed with be a difficult decision.

The world has much to lose if it allows a man like Putin to invade his neighbors. Such a Russian empire so established will exert its authoritarian influence around the world much like China is attempting to do presently. The democratic nations of the world must work together to keep a world order that encourages free trade, travel, cultural exchange, open communication and a devotion to the betterment of all mankind.

The US has long been practicing liberal democracy. It has been very successful in raising the standard of living for all Americans, very often in ways that are not fully appreciated. So there is no confusion, liberal democracy doesn’t mean “Democrat democracy”. It is a system of representative democracy operating as defined bv the US Constitution with a separation of powers and many checks and balances. The engine of the nation is a market economy with private property and respect for individual and civil rights.

Our democracy and economic engine has given the US and the world a great many benefits in science, engineering, consumer goods, and medicine. The US has had the most productive economic and scientific engines the world has ever seen. We also built and maintained the most powerful military in history based on discipline, rules and strong moral leadership. The US continues to lead the world in the critical area of aerospace.

Our Government-Industrial-University R&D complex has been the envy of the world since after WWII. Scientific and industrial R&D is a powerful combination for sustaining prosperity. It is this that I most worry about when government comes under the current brand of GOP leaders. This is the goose that layed the golden egg.

Oil Prices Predicted to Rise in 2nd Half of 2023

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A recent report by Reuters says that global oil supply will exceed demand until mid-2023 when a steep rise in demand is expected, exceeding supply. The IEA’s Oil Market Report, January 2023, predicts record high demand for oil at 101.7 million bpd, an increase of 1.9 million bpd. Almost half of the demand growth for oil will result from China relaxing its regulations on COVID. Jet fuel will be the largest source of growth.

According to IEA, while Russian oil exports to the EU decreased, their diesel exports to EU surged-

Russian oil exports fell by 200 kb/d m-o-m in December to 7.8 mb/d, as crude shipments to the EU declined after the EU crude embargo and G7 price cap came into effect. Russian diesel exports surged to a multi-year high of 1.2 mb/d, of which 720 kb/d was destined for the EU.

From 50,000 ft it appears that the embargo of Russian crude oil into western refineries is somewhat offset by increased Russian diesel exports to EU. The EU is competing with increased imports of Russian diesel.

A Kerfuffle over Science in Montana

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One of Montana’s ‘elite’ conservative thinkers, State Senator D. Emrich has submitted 2023 Senate Bill No. 235 to limit science instruction in Montana to the teaching of scientific fact and not the teaching of scientific theory. The Bill reads-

2023 Montana Legislature

SENATE BILL NO. 235

INTRODUCED BY D. EMRICH, S. HINEBAUCH, T. MCGILLVRAY

A BILL FOR AN ACT ENTITLED: “AN ACT ESTABLISHING REQUIREMENTS FOR SCIENCE INSTRUCTION IN PUBLIC SCHOOLS; DEFINING “SCIENTIFIC FACT”; AND PROVIDING AN IMMEDIATE EFFECTIVE DATE.”

WHEREAS, the purpose of K-12 education is to educate children in the facts of our world to better prepare them for their future and further education in their chosen field of study, and to that end children must know the difference between scientific fact and scientific theory; and

WHEREAS, a scientific fact is observable and repeatable, and if it does not meet these criteria, it is a theory that is defined as speculation and is for higher education to explore, debate, and test to ultimately reach a scientific conclusion of fact or fiction.

BE IT ENACTED BY THE LEGISLATURE OF THE STATE OF MONTANA:

NEW SECTION. Section 1. Requirements for science instruction in schools. (1) Science instruction may not include subject matter that is not scientific fact.

(2)        The board of public education may not include in content area standards any standard requiring curriculum or instruction in a scientific topic that is not scientific fact.

(3)        The superintendent of public instruction shall ensure that any science curriculum guides developed by the office of public instruction include only scientific fact.

(4)        (a) The trustees of a school district shall ensure that science curriculum and instructional materials, including textbooks, used in the district include only scientific fact.

(b)        Beginning July 1, 2025, a parent may appeal the trustees’ lack of compliance to subsection (4)(a) to the county superintendent and, subsequently, to the superintendent of public instruction under the provisions for the appeal of controversies in this title pursuant to 20-3-107 and 20-3-210.

(5)        The legislature intends for this section to be strictly enforced and narrowly interpreted.

(6)        As used in this section, “scientific fact” means an indisputable and repeatable observation of a natural phenomenon.

NEW SECTION. Section 2. Transition. The board of public education, the superintendent of public instruction, and school district boards of trustees shall fully implement the requirements of [section 1] no later than July 1, 2025.

NEW SECTION. Section 3. Codification instruction. [Section 1] is intended to be codified as an integral part of Title 20, chapter 7, part 1, and the provisions of Title 20, chapter 7, part 1, apply to [section 1].

NEW SECTION. Section 4. Effective date. [This act] is effective on passage and approval.

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A lot of the kerfuffle stems from a misunderstanding of the word “theory”. According to Wikipedia–

A scientific theory is an explanation of an aspect of the natural world and universe that has been repeatedly tested and corroborated in accordance with the scientific method, using accepted protocols of observation, measurement, and evaluation of results. Where possible, theories are tested under controlled conditions in an experiment.

Now for a moment of reductionism. This is a bill that seeks to control how people think and to prepare a cozy nest for religious teaching in the schools. Florida is off and running with this ball. They are aiming at what they believe is the source- public education. Youth tend to be hungry for new ideas and open vistas. Science naturally fills some of this void. Science education aims to inform people on how the universe works based on measurement and analysis. You might suppose that this would appear to be neutral in terms of ideology. It doesn’t rely on ancient writings and the acceptance of a spirit world. It is the absence of theology in science that ruffles feathers.

It seems plain that the sponsors are focused on a few concepts that are most troublesome to them, evolution being one of them. Perhaps Critical Race Theory is another. Christians in particular have been riled up about evolution ever since the notion first appeared. You can explain the biochemistry and biology of evolution to religious followers until you are blue in the face. Unless they are willing to dive into a personal journey of discovery to learn about it for themselves, they will never see that it makes sense without having to invoke a universe driven by magic.

It isn’t clear that this bill will work its way into law. However, it would seem to be another thinly veiled attempt to pierce the delicate membrane between church and state. My guess is that the GOP Senator must be checking off all of the boxes to establish his conservative bona fides to the lunatic fringe.

We are all born ignorant. Some choose to live out their lives and die that way too.