Pi Day 3-14

Another magic day is before us- Pi Day on Saturday, March 14 (that’s 3-14). Lets hope that the celebration does not lead to jail time or excessive brain damage. Pi to a million decimal places, a partial listing of which is below-

3.
1415926535897932384626433832795028841971693993751058209 7494459230781640628620899862803482534211706798214808651 3282306647093844609550582231725359408128481117450284102 7019385211055596446229489549303819644288109756659334461 2847564823378678316527120190914564856692346034861045432 6648213393607260249141273724587006606315588174881520920 9628292540917153643678925903600113305305488204665213841…

In the interest of preserving bandwidth, I’ve deleted most of the first 50 thousand or so numbers.

…5115448491268584126869589917414913382057849280069825519 5740201818105641297250836070356851055331787840829000041 5525118657794539633175385320921497205266078312602819611 6485809868458752512999740409279768317663991465538610893

Bronx Cheer for National Geographic

After supper last night I parked in front of the tubule and switched on the Discovery Channel. There was an intriguing program on the Cueva de los Cristales (Cave of Crystals) in Mexico. The Naica mine has become famous for its gigantic selenite crystals (calcium sulfate). National Geographic filmed a program on these wondrous crystals and it has been broadcast on the Discovery Channel.

What has raised my ire on this is not the production value. As usual, the cimematography was superb. What is disappointing is the story they chose to tell.

What I have noticed in the public science programming world is a particular weakness that quietly infects writers, directors, and producers. The weakness has to do with the fear of boring their audience. Rather than risk a pandemic of somnolence, writers kick up the script a notch with undercurrents of intrigue and a suggestion of danger for the intrepid parties crawling in the muck or harassing gators.

That’s fine. It never hurts to plan for short attention spans in the audience. But what suffers is a sense of proportion. When the focus shifts from the subject of the expedition to the members of the expedition, the program crosses the line into the tawdry world of show business.

Yes, it is quite hot in the cave. Yes, heatstroke is an issue to be wary of. But, what about the crystals?? What are they made of? Where is the water from which they were precipitated from? How does crystallization work?

And, where is the chemist on the team? National Geographic brought together a geologist, a planetary astronomer, a nuclear physicist, a biologist, and a few others who were not identified. This is a common omission on the part of people outside of the chemical sciences. Nobody knows what the hell we do!

For the showbiz effect, they brought in a planetary astronomer, Dr. Chris McKay, to examine the cave for possible implications on Martian exploration and the Evolution of Life. To media people, science equals- 1) Space Science, 2) Medicine, 3) Computer Science, and 4) oh, did I say Space Science?

It turns out I used to know Chris McKay. He was a TA in an astronomy course I took at the University of Colorado ca 1978. He was a geat guy and, unlike other misfits misanthropes bed wetters grad students in the astro/geophysics program, an attentive and caring instructor. He was (and is) a true believer in space exploration. We spent a long and chilly evening together in the Sommers Bosch Observtory at CU manually guiding the 24 inch telescope on a guide star for some lengthy time exposures of a string of galaxies. We used 3×5 Tri-X plates hypered in H2.

This showbiz reflex is a chronic condition and I am sorry to see National Geographic succumb to it.

Submersible Aviation

Sharpen your pencils boys and girls. DARPA is soliciting proposals for Submersible Aircraft.  Here is the synopsis-

DARPA is soliciting innovative research proposals on the topic of a Submersible Aircraft. In particular, DARPA is interested in a feasibility study and experiments to prove out the possibility of making an aircraft that can maneuver underwater. The proposal needs to outline a conceptual design along with identifying the major technological limitations that need to be overcome in order to maneuver an aircraft underwater. In addition to the conceptual design studies, performers need to outline experiments or computational models that will be used to demonstrate that the major technological limitations can be overcome.

Aircraft are constructed to withstand loads from particular directions arising from the airstream and from dynamic loads imposed on the airframe by accelerated maneuvers. A submersible aircraft must be constructed to withstand additional compressive loads all over the airframe from all directions due to conducting operations in water and at depth.

Perhaps crew chiefs will have to deal with seaweed and barnacles in addition to damage from FOD and birdstrikes. A whole new skill set will arise for naval aviators. Will these craft require anchors and bilge pumps? It is fun to speculate.

It may well be easier to devise a submersible aircraft carrier. I can see it now

Sunset in the north Atlantic. A blood red sun sets over the gray Atlantic rollers. Suddenly, the surface is broken by a large craft abruptly surfacing. The bow rises into the air then splashes to the surface as the large gray ship glides onto the surface at full speed.

Moments later, a hatch on the offset conning tower opens and sailors spill onto the broad flat deck.  Large sections of deck open skyward and elevators lift folded aircraft to the deck. These strange craft are rolled into position while scurrying crews fuel and arm them in the muted red running lights. Curling streams of steam spill to aft from vents on the carrier deck as the vessels screws push it forward.

Elsewhere on deck, sailors mount antenna arrays and open ports revealing defensive weapons. Soon, a fleet of submersible men-of-war have surfaced and set up a defensive perimeter around the submersible aircraft carrier.

After a few minutes, the aircrews run toward the aircraft and strap in. Turbine engines begin to whine as they spool up. Crews disconnect startup carts and run with their equipment to designated locations. As the aircraft power up, their wings unfold and lock into place.

Pilots engage the flapping box and the turbine powered ornithopters begin to flap their articulated wings. The pilot of the lead craft advances the throttle and rolls to the takeoff position while exercising control surfaces. The airboss clears the flight for takeoff and the pilot salutes smartly and advances the thrust to military power.

The black stealth gullwing craft diverts full power to the flapping mechanism and leaps into the air, vanishing into the dark sky.  The vacancy is quickly filled by the next craft. Moments later, another takes wing followed by the rest of the squadron.

At altitude the squadron members meet and assume formation flight. Below, the carrier has already begun to submerge to loiter in position until the appointed time where it will surface and recover the flight if any manage to return. It will be a harrowing night.

Static in the Attic

Some scattered thoughts and links, each too small for a single post-

Given that we are near planting season for 2009, I wonder how the loan picture is for farmers wanting to borrow money for the upcoming crop. It’d be a form of catastrophy if money was too tight for farmers to buy seed, fertilizer, and diesel.

One of my favorite reference books is by Francis X. McConville, The Pilot Plant Real Book, 2nd Edition, FXM Engineering and Design, 2007;  ISBN 0-9721769-2-6.

Glass blowing supplies are available here. Here is some coursework.

The Very Large Array (VLA) sits 50 or so miles west of Socorro, NM, just south of Hwy 60. A few hours east on Hwy 60, across White Sands, is Roswell, NM.

Atomic tourists should know that the Trinity site is open only twice per year: once in April and once in October.

Godwins Law.

A new POS (warning- really bad language!).

The ARC, the CHETAH, and the Organikker

Just received a copy of CHETAH 8.0.  This is a program for thermochemical and energy release evaluation and is distributed by ASTM. It will calculate enthalpy of combustion and thermochemical properties of compounds and reactions including- LFL, LOC, MIE, lower limit flame temperatures, maximum flame temperature, fundamental burning velocity, and quenching distance.

I have only had it installed for 2 days, so it’s way too early to give an appraisal. It came highly recommended by several colleagues in the process safety field.  The only snag so far is a balky SMILES input module. This feature was very appealing because it allows one to copy a ChemDraw structure in SMILES format and paste it into the CHETAH GUI. The rep at ASTM gave me a link which ended up offering very cryptic instructions. Naturally, the problem is some obscure setting in Windows.

Until I get this fixed, I’ll have to enter Benson groups by hand. As it happens, I began studying guitar in my spare time, so there are all kinds of new things for my addled brain to stumble over assimilate. So when I’m not picking at strings, I’m picking at Benson groups.

Update 3/5/09:  After a service pack download, the SMILES module is functioning. This is a very powerful tool.

We’ve recently caught up with the times and have been pressing Accelerating Rate Calorimetry (ARC) into service. Or more accurately, paying to have the data collected.  ARC is really quite informative in that it can offer a Time to Maximum Rate (TMR) equation from which a TMR can be determined for any desired temperature. You can calculate an adiabatic delta T as well. I do not know how reliable this number is, but it certainly reminds one of the importance of considering the effect of phi factor in process scale up.

The ARC data I get includes an Antoine curve which can indicate that the accelerated rate behavior is or is not characteristic of classical liquid/vapour equilibrium behavior. What this says to the wary is that other volatiles (besides the subject material) may be generated which are not condensable. This is helpful in considering what kind of controllability is available to the process engineers.

Lamentations on the screw and the chip

At a meeting recently the topic of a particular computer was put on the table for discussion. A colleague who fancies himself a bit of a computer wrangler kept referring to the computer as a machine. This machine runs on Vista or that machine runs on XP. Jargonese flew out of his cake hole with such fluid grace and certitude that I found myself momentarily drawn in by the minute details of Cat 5 and internet protocols. I had to force myself to snap out of it.

This use of the word “machine” in reference to computers has always annoyed me, but in this case the annnoyance was starting to raise welts on my brain. This madness has to stop.

A computer is a circuit, not a machine. Get that? It’s a circuit comprised of chips soldered to a board.

I’ll give an example of a machine. The screws holding down the circuit board to the frame are elementary machines. A screw is a machine that converts rotational motion to translational motion. Oh yeah, it is a great fastener as well.

A machine can remove body parts, deglove your hand, or unload a cargo ship. A computer is a circuit that at worst, can provide annoyance, vexations, and spam.

Fellows, if you want to swagger around with manly bravado, stick to manly things. Sports cars, bulldozers, and beer. Computer jargon is for prissy little Nancy-boys with overbearing mother figures.

The Spring Burn

Spring is surely approaching because the local farmers are burning their irrigation ditches in preparation for the first release of irrigation water. A few minutes ago I passed a farmer driving a tractor with his ditch burner flaring away. It consisted of a long boom attached to the rear hitch and was fitted with a downward facing burner that rides over the ditch. This flame from above brings sudden hellfire to field mice and rabbits crouching in the ditch. Potbellied farmer dudes with shovels and a 4-wheeler watch the fire from a distance ready to spring into action if the fire gets out of control.  A hawk studies the activity from atop a nearby power pole.

The local reservoirs have been silently filling up with water in preparation for the seasons long discharge into the downhill maze of irrigation canals. Things are happening in the background.

Questions about health care costs

When one goes to the doctor for an examination or to have an office procedure performed, notes are made on the patients chart and procedure codes are recorded. Somewhere, a person enters these codes to the accounting system which then makes a ledger entry and generates an invoice.

Here is a crude guess (factor of 2 estimate) as to the labor costs involved for a 2-Doc office in a quiet town, nominally- 2 MD’s @ $250 k each, 2 PA’s at ~$35 k each, 2 office clerks @$25 k each. Add up the salaries plus 25 % for taxes and benefits, it adds to $775,000 per year in direct labor costs.

If we assume the mortgage or rent is $3000 per month, insurance on the facility is $8,000 per year (a guess), and utilities are $5000 per year (a guess), we can add another $49,000 bringing the total to $824,000 per year. 

Spread over 52 weeks at 48 hours per week, the overhead cost runs at $330.01 per hour. If the docs make $150,000 per year, the overhead comes down to $229.97 per hour. In a town away from the major population centers, the real cost is probably between the two numbers. In major markets, the costs may be 2x or more higher than the scribbling I have proposed.

At $330/hr, the labor overhead cost is $5.50 per minute. At $230/hr, the labor overhead cost is $3.83 per minute. This simple mindedly assumes that the docs are running the clinic and not a hospital. So, while a patient rattles away about a dream from the previous night, or gives a recitation of every manner of ache and pain in the last 5 years, the clock is ticking away. It is easy to see why most offices have multiple examination rooms and the doc spends all day popping in and out of these rooms. It is driven by the need to keep up the rate of production.

A practice is a business and there is a reasonable expectation of some kind of net profit. If in this labor intensive business the previous overhead costs consume 60 % of the cash flow (a guess), then the 40 % balance covers materials, misc costs, and profit. So, the high number may be more like $550/hr to afford a 15 % net profit. The low estimate would be $383/hr to give the 15 % net profit.

I don’t know what the numbers really are. If anything, they are likely to be understated. I just did a back of the napkin scientific wild-assed guess (a SWAG).

Now, for the patient add to this the cost of testing, prescription drugs,and procedures by specialists who are likely to have expensive machinery as well as a high hourly rate. All of the parties involved have preset costs and margin requirements for their services. For the patient, there are few options for a Wal-Mart approach with less expensive care services.  The entire system has evolved to soak up the resources provided by insurance companies and the government.

Ultimately, the patient is a minor decision maker when it comes to medical services. Medicine has become an extractive industry where the sick person owns the land but not the mineral rights.  To a great extent, the doc is the gatekeeper as to what service will be needed and the insurance company is the gate keeper on the funds. It is up to the patient to try to connect the two parties in a dispute.

How can we expect to reign in health care costs when there is little option to find alternative services that are affordable?  Increasingly, we have champagne services on a beer budget.

There is no option for selecting a Ford sedan when the dealer only provides Mercedes. If medical schools and medical boards have an exclusive grip on the supply of MD’s in the market, how can the cost of medical labor be brought into line with the needs of the population bell curve? To what extent are MD’s over trained? Any at all?

And, to what extent do caregivers now turn ambiguous cases over to specialists or MRI’s where before they would have tackled it with more modest means? Perhaps litigation is a sort of ratchet that makes testing that was once optional now manditory.

People who provide critical and life saving services in our society should be rewarded in a manner commensurate with the contribution. And we should be willing to pay for such service. But for this service to have grown into a massive business machine that harvests cash from the marketplace, but is somehow immune from equilibrium forces in the market that everyone else is subject to is grossly unfair and cannot be sustained.

UnaTed the Bomber

An interesting piece of critical analysis of Ted Kaczynski (the Unabomber) and his manifesto can be found at The Technium. Much time has been dedicated to the pathological aspects of Kaczynski and his violent acts. But perhaps not so much energy has been expended on whether or not his writings made any sense in any context.

… the Unabomber is right that choices which begin as optional can over time become less so. First, there are certain technologies (say sewage treatment, vaccinations, traffic lights) that were once matters of choice but that are now mandated and enforced by the system. Then, there are other systematic technologies, like automobiles, which are self-reinforcing. Thousands of other technologies are intertwined into these systemic ones, making it hard for a human to avoid. The more that participate, the more essential it becomes.  Living without these embedded technologies requires more effort, or at least more deliberate alternatives.

The author points out that Kaczynski was concerned about the spread of what Jim Kunstler might call “technological triumphalism” and the lack of options we have in participation. Kaczynski was so concerned that he spent much of his life in a one room shack in the mountains of Montana.  But he did not live like a cave man. There was a certain minimum level of technology he was comfortable with.

Another person might have fashioned these ideas into the core of a brilliant academic or writing career. But for reasons or illness unique to Kaczynski, he followed a darker path by choosing to lob grenades from the margins. No matter how compelling the logic, we need to have social intelligence to temper the indulgence of violence in persuasion.

Unix Time Celebration

My wierd friend Les in the Bay Area advises me that a unique horological event has come and gone. It was a special moment in Unix Time that occured on Friday, 13 February, 2009. The origin on the Unix time line is planted just after midnight, 1 January, 1970 and accumulates in units of seconds. Notably, on 2/13/09 at 23:31:30 (UTC), the Unix clock registered “1234567890”. 

This event was unique enough in some circles to lead Unix Time enthusiasts to celebrate with parties and revelry in many parts of the world. I’m sure they partied like brain damaged test monkeys.

Naturally, Th’ Gaussling was not invited or even advised of this special event. [UpdateThis claim is incorrect. Th’ Gaussling was in fact advised of this auspicious occasion in advance by a nerdly friend, but failed to appreciate the gravity of it.]

Of greater interest might be the very next second. Apparently 1234567890 + 1 is prime (I have not personally verified this and probably will not get around to it before the next interesting Unix moment arrives-  9876543210).