The Environmental Protection Agency announced on August 6th, 2024 there would be an emergency suspension on all registrations of the preemergent herbicide chlorthal-dimethyl, or dimethyl tetrachloroterephthalate (DCPA or Dacthal). It has been 40 years since the US EPA has issued such an emergency suspension of registrations. This order has immediate effect.
US patent US2923634A was granted to Diamond Shamrock 1960-02-02 with a single claim-
1. THE METHOD OF CONTROLLING UNDESIRABLE PLANT GROWTH WHICH COMPRISES CONTACTING SAID PLANT GROWTH WITH AN ACTIVE AMOUNT OF DIMETHYL 2,3,5,6-TETRAHALOTEREPHTHALATE.
An early patent claiming the use of DCPA, but not the composition.
Graphic and physicochemical data. PubChem. DCPA structure tilted just a bit for clarity. Octanol/water partition coefficient: log KOW = 4.40 @ 25 °C, water solubility = 0.5 mg/l @ 25 °C, Vapor pressure: 2.5 x 10-6 mm Hg at 25 °C
The octanol/water partition coefficient, log KOW, sometimes called Log P, is a measure of how a substance will partition itself between 2 phases, a hydrophilic phase and lipophilic phase. This logarithm is used to give some insight into the type of living tissues a substance will tend to accumulate in on exposure or dosing. A log KOH of 4.40 represents a ratio (antilog) of 25,119 to 1 favoring the octanol. This indicates considerable lipophilicity.
The industrial manufacture of DCPA is neither complicated nor difficult. The terephthaloyl chloride (pronounced: terra THAL oh illchloride, soft TH as in “thing”) raw material is used in the manufacture of Kevlar and is readily made in several ways. Whether or not the DCPA manufacturer makes their own or outsources it is not available information. In either case, the terephthaloyl chloride is chlorinated to exhaustion (fully chlorinated) and then the methyl ester is prepared by contacting the chloride with methanol to form the diester (pronounced: DYE ester).
Why does DCPA have 4 chlorine atoms on it? Hard to say exactly what the thinking was, but from the process chemistry perspective forcing 4 chlorine atoms on the ring rather than just 1, 2, or 3 solves the problem of ending up with a dog’s lunch of mono-, di-, tri- and tetrachlorinated compounds in the product mix. Individually, each may have differing potency, selectivity, biochemical mechanisms, and human or environmental toxicological properties. Subsequent environmental and tox studies would be complicated by the potential of 4 analogs each possibly requiring individual testing at some point. Another thing to consider is that single component solids are much more easily purified by crystallization than a solution of solid components. A solution of mixed components can be quickly precipitated by cooling or concentrating, but pulling out one pure solid among many solid close analogs can be difficult and low yielding. Single component products are almost always better for ease of processing.
Graphics by John Jacob Jungleheimer Schmidt. The “oyl” fragment of the name indicates the presence of the acid chloride group.
DCPA is a selective non-systemic, or contact, herbicide used for pre-emergence control of annual grasses and some annual broad-leaved weeds. Coverage rates of 6-14 kg/hectare are common.
From PubChem: “/IT IS/ PRESENTLY APPROVED FOR USE ON TURF, ORNAMENTALS, STRAWBERRIES, AND AGRONOMIC CROPS INCLUDING COTTON, SOYBEANS, AND FIELD BEANS. /IT IS/ EFFECTIVE AGAINST SMOOTH & HAIRY CRABGRASS, WITCHGRASS, GREEN & YELLOW FOXTAILS, FALL PANICUM & OTHER ANNUAL GRASSES. /IT IS/ ALSO USEFUL AGAINST CERTAIN BROAD-LEAVED WEEDS SUCH AS CARPET WEED…PURSLANE & COMMON CHICKWEED. /IT IS/ TOLERATED BY MANY CROP PLANTS.”
DCPA is a relatively simple small molecule that is made from cheap and abundant early feedstocks like para-Xylene, Chlorine and Methanol. It has good potency and desirable selectivity in its ability to kill crabgrass in the presence of turf grass. The chemical process steps are well understood, each with a long history of successful use. It can be sold in solid form or in liquid form and may be applied by a large variety of methods. It can be applied for pre-emergence or folial use.
According to EPA “DCPA is a chlorinated benzoic acid herbicide which inhibits cell division of root tips in target plants. It controls many annual grasses and broadleaf weeds in a variety of agricultural crops and ornamental varieties (e.g., broccoli, onions, tomatoes, cabbage, cauliflower, dogwood, azalea). Annual agricultural use from 1998 through 2008 averaged approximately 500,000 pounds over 100,000 acres with broccoli and onions accounting for 79 percent of that use (Ratnayake, 2011). Information also suggests that on average 50 percent of broccoli is treated and 15 percent of onions (SLUA).“
As useful of an herbicide as it may be, it has a dark side that spooked the US EPA into issuing an unusual emergency suspension on August 6, 2024. In particular is the potential toxicity to the unborn and the risk to “post-application workers involved in tasks such as transplanting, weeding and harvesting.” Female farmworkers are at high risk since DCPA has been shown to be toxic to the fetus producing lifelong health problems. The reader is invited to read the link for details in the toxicology. The successive degradation of DCPA is shown below. In addition to hydrolysis, it is also subject to photodegradation in sunlight.
Graphics by John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt.
Why wasn’t this discovered earlier? I’m not an EPA pesticide guy, but discovering the specific toxicity of herbicides registered many years previously requires some kind of trigger to get an investigation started. Today, other than an overt incidence of toxic effects making the news, that trigger can be the Registration Review Overview conducted by EPA every 15 years for each registered pesticide.
Having interacted with a certain division of the USEPA for the last 3 years, I can say that there are many intelligent and knowledgeable scientists, engineers and other professionals who try to get things done in a very constricted space bounded by layers upon layers of federal laws converted into regulations. They are about as loved as the Internal Revenue Service and, like IRS, are forced to work wildly understaffed and with an IT system that is decades out of date. A doff of the hat to EPA.
Wow. The evolving kerfuffle around Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (RFK Jr.) leaving a dead bear cub in NYC’s Central Park is another odd chapter in this guy’s bio. He had posted a video on X where he recounted a story to Rosanne Barr about the bear cub incident.
Harvesting roadkill for food is not something people often do in the big city, but up the holler it is occasionally indulged in. I lived for a time outside of Durango, Colorado, where an elk herd would winter-over north of town along the Animas River. My experience was that elk were a little different from skittish deer in that a bull elk would just stand in the road and stare at you as you closed in on it. Not only would the damage to your vehicle and the elk be serious, but the height of an adult elk assures that it would slide over the hood and through the windshield and into your face. An unpleasant scenario to be sure.
One morning while commuting into Durango I passed the carcass of a large bull elk lying alongside the road, dead as a door nail. On my return commute that evening the elk carcass had been replaced by a large pile of glistening pink entrails. It was a bonanza for some lucky sod. I learned later that this was fairly common and was told that the forest service (or some other lucky group) even had a special disposal facility for roadkill.
It is worth noting that RFK Jr. mentioned that he is a falconer. It stands to reason that a falconer might be inclined to collect roadkill to feed the falcon. Our natural instinct to avoid handling roadkill might be overridden by a falconer.
He did say that he was going to take the bear cub home, skin it and put the meat in his refrigerator. He didn’t mention eating it. Maybe he was going to use the meat to feed his falcon. From personal experience I can say that bear meat is less than choice eating. As a starving undergrad living off campus, I was gifted some bear sausage which I made into chili. It was awful- the sausage spices were meant to cover up the taste, but it just didn’t work. I fried the bear sausage first before adding to the chili and it stunk up the whole apartment.
The stashing of the bear cub carcass in Central Park by RFK Jr. and his drunken friends was meant to be a prank, he claims, relating to recent published accounts of bicycling fatalities there. He said the intention was to make it look like a bicyclist hit the bear. I don’t know, if I were with drunk buddies late at night, it might well seem funny to me too, especially since the carcass was in the trunk anyway.
Nonetheless, a story like this going public for a politician can only detract from their campaign and should have been left unrevealed and deep in the murky depths of time. The revulsion to an animal carcass can only translate into revulsion to the candidate.
Though not at all a fan of RFK Jr., I can sympathize with him just a tiny bit on this fiasco, anti-vax flake though he is.
The news service Reuters recently published an article on the ease with which the raw materials for the production of the opioid Fentanyl. From their $3600 expenditure on raw materials they estimate they could have produced $3 million worth of Fentanyl.
For an estimated 74,702 Americans in 2023, Fentanyl provided them with a narcotic experience prior to death. The lethal dose is reported to be 2 milligrams for an adult. It is 20 to 40 times more potent than heroin.
Outside of medical use Fentanyl should be described as a highly (neuro)toxic substance rather than just an opioid. Yes, it is an illegal narcotic, but it is also a potent deadly poison. Hidden with other illegal drugs in pill form, it is just a highly toxic contaminant.
On January 5, 2024, I posted a piece titled “A Bit of Fentanyl Chemistry” which is reproduced below. It turns out that the Janssen synthetic chemistry I wrote about then is quite close to what the investigators at Reuters had in mind for their story. In the world of chemical commerce, a process using easily available raw materials is highly favored.
My take-home message from the Reuters story is that unless China seriously clamps down on those who export the raw materials, all that is left to do is to suppress demand. The import of Fentanyl raw materials is aided by deceptive packaging and small quantities needed. Worse, Fentanyl raw materials have other uses in pharmaceutical chemistry and are too useful to completely shut down. The death and incarceration that Fentanyl can bring in the US does not appear to be sufficiently convincing to the at-risk American population. Nothing new here.
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A recent raid on a clandestine drug lab in the Hatzic Valley east of Vancouver, BC, netted 25 kg of “pure” fentanyl and 3 kg which had already been cut for street use. Precursor chemicals used to manufacture the fentanyl were also seized. Along with the drug, the raid also seized 2,000 liters of chemicals and 6,000 liters (about 30 drums) of hazardous chemical waste, according to an RCMP news release 2 November, 2023.
The police said that the seizure represented 2,500,000 street doses.
In August of 2023 the police in Hamilton, Ontario, announced the results of Project Odeon. This was a large-scale sweep of illicit drug production in the Hamilton and Toronto area. From January 1, to July 30, 2023 there were 606 incidents related to suspected opioid overdoses and 89 suspected drug related deaths in the Hamilton area. Twelve people were charged for a total of 48 criminal charges. The police disclosed the following items that they seized-
An operational fentanyl drug lab at 6800 Sixteen Road, Smithville.
A dismantled fentanyl drug lab at 4057 Bethesda Road, Stouffville.
Approximately 3.5 tons of chemical byproduct from fentanyl production.
800 gallons of chemicals commonly used in the production of fentanyl
Lab equipment commonly used in the production of fentanyl
64.1 kg of illicit drugs, including 25.6 kg of fentanyl, 18 kg methamphetamine, 6 kg of ketamine
A loaded, Glock firearm and ammunition and four extended magazines
Over $350,000 of seized proceeds, including cars, jewelry, furniture and cash
Fentanyl is a synthetic drug first prepared in 1959 in Belgium by Paul Janssen (1926-2003). Janssen was the founder of Janssen Pharmaceuticals, now a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson. In addition to fentanyl, the Jenssen team developed haloperidol, the ultrapotent carfentanil, and other piperidine based congeners. Piperidine itself is a DEA List 1 substance in the US.
Carfentanil is just modified fentanyl. Graphics: Will O. de Wisp
The elephant in the room with fentanyl is its extraordinary potency as an opioid. In pharmacology, potency is a quantitative measure of the amount of dose needed to elicit a specific effect on an animal or human in terms of dose weight per kilogram of body mass. Potency is subject to variability across a population and rises to an asymptote which can be difficult to pin down. For these reasons potency is reported at 50 %. For highly potent drugs like fentanyl, the measure is expressed as milligrams or micrograms of dose per kilogram body weight (mg/kg or mcg/kg body weight). One milligram per kilogram is one part per million (ppm).
When matters of toxicity arise, it is important to remember the maxim that “the dose makes the poison”. This observation traces back to Paracelsus in the mid-sixteenth century.
“All things are poison, and nothing is without poison; the dosage alone makes it so a thing is not a poison.”
Fentanyl acts much like morphine in regard to its affinity for one particular opioid receptor. Morphine is commonly the “standard” with which other opioids are compared. For instance, fentanyl is said to be 50-100 times more potent than morphine. Only 2 mg of fentanyl is equivalent to 10 mg of morphine. Carfentanil is more potent still at 10,000 times the potency of morphine.
Morphine is an agonist which activates the μ-opioid receptor. Activation of this receptor with morphine produces analgesia, sedation, euphoria, decreased respiration and decreased bowel motility leading to the earthly delights of constipation. Fentanyl is thought to interact with this receptor as well.
Original fentanyl synthesis by Janssen. Graphics: Will O. de Wisp
So, how is fentanyl synthesized? See the synthetic scheme above. I’ll just comment on the Janssen synthesis and some issues. I have no idea of how it is made out in there by the Mexican cartels and in ramshackle American trailer parks. The synthesis above has some steps that may be undesirable for backwoods or jungle operations like hydrogenation. In the first step, aniline will be needed to make the phenyl imine. It’s pretty toxic and stinks to high heaven. Next, lithium aluminum hydride is needed to reduce the imine double bond to an amine. This innocent looking grey powder is very hazardous and should only be used by an experienced chemist. It is also available as a solution in tetrahydrofuran. The next step is the formation of the amide with propionic anhydride. While the reaction entails a simple reflux, you still have to isolate the product. Once you have recovered the amide, the benzyl protecting group on the piperidine nitrogen must be removed. It allowed amide formation exclusively on the upper aniline nitrogen and has served its purpose. Finally, the piperidine nitrogen must be festooned with a phenylethyl group and phenylethyl chloride was used to afford the fentanyl product.
In chemical synthesis generally, substances are prepared in a stepwise manner and with as few steps as possible to give high isolated yields. To begin, one must devise a synthesis beginning with commercially available raw materials as close to the target as possible. If the product has many fragments hanging off the core structure, it’s best to solve that problem early. Synthetic chemistry is almost always performed in a non-interfering solvent that will dissolve the reactants and allow the necessary reaction to occur. A low boiling point is preferable for ease of distillation. An important side benefit from a solvent is that it will absorb much of the heat of reaction which can be considerable. Left on its own, a reaction might take its solvent to the boiling point by self-heating, generating pressure and vapor. The benefit from evaporation or reflux boiling is that as a solvent transitions from liquid to vapor there is a strong cooling effect which helps to control the temperature. An overhead condenser will return cooled solvent to prevent solvent loss.
You can do any chemical synthesis in one step with the right starting materials. Unfortunately, this option is rarely available. The next best option is to take commercially available starting materials through a known synthetic scheme. People who run illicit drug labs are never interested in R&D. They want (and need) simple chemistry that can be done by non-chemists in buckets or coke bottles at remote locations. Chemical glassware can be purchased but sometimes the authorities will be notified of a suspicious order. This is especially true with 12 liter round bottom flasks.
The most difficult and risky trick to illicit drug synthesis is obtaining starting materials like piperidine compounds in the case of fentanyl and its congeners. In the case of heroin, acetic anhydride shipments have been investigated for a long time because it is used to convert morphine to heroin- an unusually simple one-step conversion. Solvent diethyl ether is similarly difficult to get outside of established companies or universities. Many other common drug starting materials are difficult to obtain legally in the US or EU by the criminal element. However, China is thought to be a major supplier of starting materials outside the US and EU. Countries with remote coastlines, loose borders, lackadaisical or corrupt law enforcement reduce the barriers for entry of drug precursors.
China in particular has a large number of chemical plants that make diverse precursors for legitimate drugs. Unfortunately, some of these precursors can also be used for illicit drugs or existing technology adapted for this use. Precursors can be sold to resellers who can do as they please with them. Agents may represent many manufacturers and can mask the manufacturer’s identity and take charge of the distribution abroad. Shady transactions become difficult for authorities to detect and trace. The identity of illicit precursor chemicals are easily altered in the paperwork to grease the skids through customs. Resellers can repackage chemicals to suitable scale, change the paperwork and jack up the price for export. It has been my experience that many if not most Chinese or Japanese chemical manufacturers conduct business through independent export agents. However, behind the curtains there often a byzantine web of connections between companies and agents, so you may never know who will manufacture your chemical. As an aside, this complicates getting technical information from the manufacturer since the agent will not disclose a contact at that manufacturer.
Highly potent drugs like fentanyl must be taken in very small dosages which means that kilo-scale batch quantities of drug result in many individual sales per kilo. Small quantities of highly potent drugs are more easily smuggled than bulky drugs like weed with its strong odor.
There is a down-side to the illicit manufacture of drugs like fentanyl. It is quite toxic at very low dosages and must be handled with the greatest of care lest the “cook” and other handlers get inadvertently and mortally poisoned. Good housekeeping helps, but I have yet to see a photo of a tidy drug lab.
Fentanyl can be sold as a single drug but perhaps is cut with a solid diluent that some random yayhoo decided was Ok to use. Other drugs of abuse like heroin may be surreptitiously spiked with fentanyl to kick up the potency. In either case, a given dosage may or may not be safe even for a single use. There is no way for a user to know. Also, the concentration or homogeneity of mixed solids may be subject to wide variation. For more than a few people, their first fentanyl dose will be their last.
Numerous YouTube videos depict the widespread destruction of Russian tanks in the invasion of Ukraine, giving the impression that these tanks are more lethal to Russian soldiers than their opponents. Despite being equipped with Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA), their ability to withstand artillery, mines, and drone attacks seems minimal. Moreover, when the armor is breached, the cannon gun propellant tends to ignite violently, causing the warheads to explode and instantly killing the crew. Occasionally, the force of ammunition blasts is so strong that it hurls the turret with gun barrel into the air, a stark illustration of the power of such explosions. Consequently, videos frequently capture Russian tank crews abandoning their crippled vehicles and fleeing for safety. Instead of offering protection, tanks have become conspicuous and cumbersome targets, prone to devastating attacks.
One might question the practical value of reactive armor. The landscapes of eastern Ukraine are strewn with thousands of destroyed Russian tanks, their ERA blocks still intact. Perhaps its practical value lies in bolstering the confidence of tank crews to engage in battle, trusting in the ERA’s protective capabilities. However, it is now challenging to believe that ERA instills a sense of safety in tank crew members. The effectiveness of reactive armor seems negated by potent penetrator warhead countermeasures capable of breaching the ERA. The pertinent question remains: does the ERA diminish the impact of an incoming shell sufficiently to be considered effective?
The conflict between Putin and Ukraine will eventually conclude, and the victors will promptly seek to repurpose the battlefields for peacetime activities. However, they must first contend with numerous challenges, including the presence of unexploded ordnance. Thousands of mines may remain hidden, posing a threat for decades unless they are securely disposed of or neutralized.
The landscape of the battle zones is marred by bomb craters, charred vehicles—many with unexploded ammunition—minefields, unexploded ordnance scattered about, live explosive reactive armor on destroyed armored vehicles, and soil polluted with shrapnel and residues from countless detonated artillery shells.
Numerous cities and villages, particularly those near the Russian border, have been completely obliterated by Putin’s military, resulting in tens of thousands of civilian casualties and leaving most without homes. The remnants of homes, businesses, and infrastructure stand as a testament to the survivors. For them, social and economic frameworks are now just distant memories. Civilization has been set back by at least a generation due to Putin’s distorted ambitions for an imperial legacy. The man is not insane or unintelligent; he is quite astute and fully aware of his actions—he is simply a terrible person. Currently, the US is facing its own challenge with a figure of ill repute seeking control of the government, backed by a significant number of misguided followers.
In the conflict in Ukraine, it’s conceivable that one precisely aimed bullet could have altered the course of events, a notion that has been a sad reality in many wars. This was a concern even during Stalin’s time. Since 2000, Putin and his associates have been systematically constructing the framework for an authoritarian state and military power, positioning him at the apex of power. His ambition is to supplant the hegemony of the US and NATO with the hegemony of Russia.
The conflict has been a catastrophic event for the region’s flora and fauna, significantly hindering the biosphere in numerous areas. Ukraine, until recently, was a significant grain producer and exporter, essential for the sustenance of millions. In the early stages of the conflict, Russia targeted and destroyed much of Ukraine’s grain distribution infrastructure, aiming to debilitate the economy and hasten a surrender. The bombings of civilian residences, hospitals, and other infrastructures will tarnish Putin’s reputation, marking him as a tyrant and a fundamentally flawed individual. Additionally, the reported abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children by Russia for forced assimilation and adoption raises serious legal and humanitarian questions. These actions are meticulously recorded for potential future war crimes proceedings and historical record.
Writing about theology is outside my comfort zone. As a non-theist, I lean heavily towards a mechanistic, secular explanation of the universe where observation, measurement and theory are the pillars which support our understanding of the universe. Crediting a deity with creating the universe only begs the question: who created the deity? Why would a universe created by a deity be more likely than one that exists independently? Along this line of thinking, Occam’s Razor would suggest that a deity is an unnecessary step in the reduction to the truth. Occam’s Razor isn’t just philosophical tidiness. It reflects a physics that is cut from the cloth of reductionism.
Occam’s Razor is neither a natural law nor a formal scientific method; it serves more as a heuristic guideline. When multiple explanations yield the same conclusion, the simplest one is usually deemed more likely. Supernatural or magical explanations find no refuge in Occam’s Razor. It’s not about resorting to a simple magic trick. Any explanation favored by Occam’s Razor must still withstand subsequent observation, measurement, and theoretical scrutiny—the core of scientific inquiry.
The point of this essay
I am writing to highlight that the United States of America, despite its chaos and noise, errors and blunders, has developed an impressive economic growth engine, formidable military capabilities, expanded civil rights, enhanced public health, and a wide-ranging scientific and technological foundation that surpasses anything previously witnessed in history. Numerous sources support this claim.
A significant portion of the American experiment including its economic system, directly stems from the European Enlightenment of the 17th and 18th centuries. It must be emphasized that there is an emerging movement aiming to regress various facets of our culture to a period before the Enlightenment—a time characterized by extensive church authority and a government in alliance with it.
I will state plainly that I am deeply opposed to the forces currently working to regress our civilization. Since my earliest memories which began at the time of the Kennedy assassination in 1963, there has been a continuous lament over the state of our nation. People have consistently shaken their heads, openly questioning how the USA could continue to progress amidst the prevailing turmoil. This sentiment has persisted over the years. Nevertheless, not only have we persisted, but we’ve also made continuous progress in improving the quality of life.
The nostalgia for the “good old days” of America’s supposed greatness is often lamented by those who find current times challenging. A closer examination of American history reveals a complex tapestry of both distressing events and prosperous periods. In any given year, one can uncover instances of both success and sorrow. It seems that a certain level of disorder is inherent in our pluralistic democratic republic. The population typically follows a statistical distribution, with a majority of average individuals at the center and fewer at the extremes, represented by the virtuous and the villainous. While disorder is a constant, its nature fluctuates with the changing eras.
Considering the unfathomable expanse of the universe, it is difficult to comprehend the significance of distant galaxies, which remained invisible until recently, within the cosmological framework of the Old Testament as depicted in Genesis. The Abrahamic faiths inherently present a cosmological theory complete with an origin narrative and are replete with Bronze and Iron Age prescriptions for social structure, upheld by a deity who is portrayed as both loving and wrathful- curiously human attributes.
Bronze age religious sentiments
The foundations of these religions originate from an era that is far removed and largely outdated in the context of today’s social norms. The holy scriptures were written at a time when life-changing phenomena were commonly attributed to witchcraft, demons, or benevolent gods. Historically, the struggle to understand cause and effect in life meant attributing disease, illness, and death to dark and unseen forces. The advent of microscopes, along with advancements in medication and surgical procedures, has dramatically altered this perspective.
A persistent and detrimental remnant from the Bronze Age Abrahamic religions is the belief that humans have dominion over Earth and its creatures. This belief manifests in various ways today, notably hindering necessary conservation, environmental and public health efforts out of concern for humanity and the biosphere. The Earth’s biosphere has been under significant strain for many decades. Unfortunately, this broad dominion has historically held over women, who have suffered tremendously under a patriarchy endorsed by these religious doctrines.
Undoubtedly, religion provides numerous benefits to individuals in various significant aspects. However, it can also serve as a personal and collective obstacle. The issue arises when it becomes a foundation for mystical thinking, offering black and white solutions to the complex spectrum of issues we encounter, rather than acknowledging the continuous shades of grey that characterize our reality.
The coming storm
I posted an article on Theocratic Dominionism back on October 25, 2006. Today Dominionism, Christian Nationalism, Christian Reconstructionism, or the New Apostolic Reformation, NAR, are gaining much ground in politics. It is apparent now that the old Republican party has transmogrified into the MAGA party whose devout members are being led to a Christian Nationalism model. The endgame sought is certainly consistent with the goals of Project 2025. This is in the direction of what has been called “illiberal democracy” as the President of Hungary, Victor Orban, puts it.
The father of Christian reconstructionism is credited to the son of Armenian immigrants Rousas John Rushdoony (1916-2001). He was an orthodox Calvinist minister, philosopher, historian and theologian. Michael J. McVicar, associate professor of Religion at Florida State University wrote of Rushdoony –
“As a theologian Rushdoony saw human beings as primarily religious creatures bound to God, not as rational autonomous thinkers. While this may seem an esoteric theological point, it isn’t. All of Rushdoony’s influence on the Christian Right stems from this single, essential fact. Many critics of Christian Reconstructionism assume that Rushdoony’s unique contribution to the Christian Right was his focus on theocracy. In fact, Rushdoony’s primary innovation was his single-minded effort to popularize a pre-Enlightenment, medieval view of a God-centered world. By de-emphasizing humanity’s ability to reason independently of God, Rushdoony attacked the assumptions most of us uncritically accept.” [Italics mine]
According to McVicar, Rushdoony had no interest in the world of the enlightenment. The orthodox Calvinist Rushdoony saw people as “religious creatures bound to God, not as rational autonomous thinkers”. Rushdoony advocated under the theonomic perspective, meaning a Christian form of government where individuals and society are ruled by divine law, especially under judicial laws in the Old Testament of the Christian bible.
Rushdoony opposed democracy which he claimed opposed the will of God and favored the republic which represented a better form of civic government. He said to Bill Moyers in an interview “… a republic avoided mob rule and the rule of the “51%” of society; in other words “might does not make right” in a republic.”
“The central tenet of Rushdoony’s teaching is that God has tasked Christians with taking dominion over society, beginning in Genesis 1:28, in which God commands humans to take dominion over the earth. While many Christians have applied this verse in the context of stewardship, Rushdoony taught that this creation mandate is really a dominion mandate, commanding humans to bring every sphere of society—as well as nature itself—into subjugation under Christ. In his view, Christ’s sacrificial death nullified the Fall and subsequent curse of Genesis 3 and enabled Christians to perfectly follow God’s law. Reconstructionism is a guidebook for Christians to reconstruct society according to Rushdoony’s understanding of Mosaic law. (Notably, his understanding differs dramatically from historical Jewish interpretations and includes stoning LGBTQ individuals.)” Source: The Christian Century, November 2022.
Distilled down to a sticky residue, Dominionism is the belief that Christians should take moral, spiritual, and ecclesiastical control over society. Romans 13:1-5 says in so many words that God has ordained the state as a delegated authority; it is not autonomous. Secular authority is not sanctioned. It is upon this authority that Dominionism rests.
Implementing an ecclesiastical governing hierarchy to operate various government entities will be complex. Individuals identify as Atheist, Catholic, Jewish, Muslim, Mormon, etc., for numerous reasons, including family history or personal choice. Are these individuals considering that sectarianism might not pose an issue? Have they examined the impact of sectarianism in the Middle East and other regions closely?
Even if the sectarian issue is resolved, consider the extensive scope of the law in all its forms. Discussions about biblical law often seem to focus on the Ten Commandments, the law outlined in Deuteronomy and biblical punishments like stoning. Punishing criminals is one aspect, but what about civil laws? The Bible doesn’t explicitly detail regulations for commerce, transportation, safety, torts and numerous other areas governed by secular laws.
An example of religious authority gone bad
The Spanish Inquisition, officially the “Tribunal of the Holy Office of the Inquisition,” began in 1478 by the Catholic monarchs King Ferdinand II of Aragon and Queen Isabella I of Castile. They sought and obtained independent inquisitorial authority separate from the Vatican and its own inquisition. Lasting from 1478 to 1834, this judicial institution aimed to eliminate heresy. However, it often forced Jews and Muslims to convert to Christianity or expelled them from the kingdom when they resisted conversion.
Unfortunately for the people of the New World, the Spanish conquistadores carried their Inquisitional evangelism with them to root out heresy. Along with it they spread smallpox, influenza and other diseases wiping out whole populations. This has been extensively covered by historians. The conquests of Cortes and his second cousin Pizzaro starting around 1519 in what is now Mexico and to the south visited death upon the Aztecs, Incas and many others.
The Catholic church in medieval times carried great authority and the monarchies of the time knew it. They sought to find favor with the Vatican and share in its power and wealth over the population. It manifested as the notion that to be against the ruling class was to be against God. It has never been documented that God had stepped in personally to referee these power games, you know, like he spoke to Noah or Moses, but the church was only too happy step in and be the arbiter of matters for the silent supernatural.
In theocracy, who is in charge?
The Biblical Law scenario wouldn’t involve a deity directly governing society, but rather sectarian politicians and religious leaders would act in the place of the mysterious, invisible and silent Deity. Over time, laws such as those from the Mosaic tradition would need to be codified for widespread dissemination, uniform interpretation and adaptation to law school curriculum. Considering the limited details provided by religious texts on prohibitions and punishments, extensive interpretation would be necessary to address the countless scenarios that could emerge within a society. The question then arises: In cases of uncertainty, what should be the recourse?
The long and short of it
What this burgeoning theocratic movement is about is political power. In short, a subset of the American people believe they have a solution to the woes of society and they have supernatural backing to make it happen. They claim that their authority is not of this world and not subject to Earthly constraints. The laws of man are inherently subservient primarily to the laws of God as issued thousands of years ago to tribal desert goat herders.
Reconstructionism is a quiet movement. It’s purpose is to implement a reconstruction of American values to suit the world view of a minority of religious extremists. It is a movement that seeks nothing less than the establishment of a theocratic form of government in America. It is also called Theocratic Dominionism or Christian Reconstructionism. But don’t believe me, see for yourself. Google these terms and browse the online resources.
The John Birch Society
For myself, I have been watching Christian fundamentalism since the early 1970’s. I recall stopping at a booth at the county fair as a high school student and talking to members of the John Birch Society. I thought at the time that they were Looney Toons, or just an obscure Christian libertarian group. I guessed that they were mostly harmless. Well, I was wrong.
Frederick Clarkson at PublicEye.org writes- “Reconstructionist leaders seem to have two consistent characteristics: a background in conservative Presbyterianism, and connections to the John Birch Society (JBS).”
He goes on to say- “In 1973, R. J. Rushdoony compared the structure of the JBS to the “early church.” He wrote in Institutes: “The key to the John Birch Society’s effectiveness has been a plan of operation which has a strong resemblance to the early church; have meetings, local lay leaders, area supervisors or bishops.”
The JBS connection does not stop there. Most leading Reconstructionists have either been JBS members or have close ties to the organization. Reconstructionist literature can be found in JBS-affiliated American Opinion bookstores.
But what is reconstructionism about? Again, Clarkson puts it succinctly-
“Reconstructionism is a theology that arose out of conservative Presbyterianism (Reformed and Orthodox), which proposes that contemporary application of the laws of Old Testament Israel, or “Biblical Law,” is the basis for reconstructing society toward the Kingdom of God on earth. “
Reconstructionism argues that the Bible is to be the governing text for all areas of life such as government, education, law, and the arts, not merely “social” or “moral” issues like pornography, homosexuality, and abortion. Reconstructionists have formulated a “Biblical world view” and “Biblical principles” by which to examine contemporary law. Reconstructionist theologian David Chilton succinctly describes this view: “The Christian goal for the world is the universal development of Biblical theocratic republics, in which every area of life is redeemed and placed under the Lordship of Jesus Christ and the rule of God’s law.”
To establish a theocracy is to suppress independent action and thinking. It is to surrender freedom to self-declared religious followers who claim to have been spoken to by an otherwise silent and invisible deity. It is to yield to the argument to “have faith”.
“Deaths in wars and conflicts killed or allowed to die by human decision of approximately 231 million for the 100 years of the 20th Century.” University of Maryland School of Public Policy.
How many of the 231 million people in the 20th century prayed their hearts out and requested help or strength under horrific circumstances? I’d estimate that most of them made every effort within their power.
Conclusion
I agree. It is easy to dismiss this as a bunch of paranoid lunatics. But if you’re paying attention to things, you might also observe that we have been in the midst of this movement for some time. The inauguration of Trump, and a MAGA Republican majority in either the house or the senate followed by the implementation of Project 2025 will be the kick-off moment for a Christian nationalist takeover of the USA. This is not the country I want to live in.
Note: Soon after Biden’s announcement of stepping down from the presidential race and his support of Kamala Harris, Musk announced that he was backing out of his plan to donate to Trump. Fancy that.
Republican oligarch Elon Musk has announced that he will be donating $45 million per month to a Silicon Valley super-PAC run by conservatives Joe Lonsdale and the Winklevoss twins supporting the reelection of #45, DJT. If there was any doubt before, it is crystal clear now that Musk is a full-throated carnival barker for DJT-JDV, $45 million for #45.
The richest guy in the world (whose liquidity is questionable) is blossoming into a real kingmaker for America. Holy red crab snappers, Batman, isn’t that swell?
Everyone knows that these megadonors bankroll Republicans as an investment. This assertion sounds like blaming a crocodile for eating people- it’s just what they do. Both Trump and Vance have publicly denounced electric vehicles. Even if Musk’s $180 megabuck donation does not result in cash back, there is certainly continued access to the rarefied heights of politics. Perhaps the Trump-Vance dynamic duo will revisit their stance on electric vehicles.
Musk’s SpaceX has received billions in federal contracts and Tesla has benefitted from electric vehicle subsidies. It’s hard to say that it has been different under the Biden Democrats.
It is bad enough to have a wannabe fascist, Putin-admiring dictator become president again, but to have the world’s wealthiest demagogues heaping cash into the kitty to tip the balance is yet another shit sandwich for the USA. Where does much of this money go? To advertising, payroll, campaign staff, printers and to entertainment venues for campaign events. Why don’t the electronic media go after #45 for his obviously felonious and vile behavior with a large helping of dictatorial inclination? Advertising revenue, silly. To hold back screen time on the Orange Jesus would be to bite the ad buyer’s hand that feeds them.
As an independent voter, I blame the national Democratic Party for gross dereliction of duty in failing to groom talented successors to Biden over the past decade. Where are they? The senior Dems in congress are talented where they are, but none seem to be interested in gambling on a run for the White House.
Most people have heard of fracking in the context of oil and gas (O&G) drilling and maybe a few of them know that this can be done in horizontal drilling at a distance from the surface well hole. Explosives or hydraulic pressure is used to fracture a section of rock formation surround the drill hole and then frac sand is forced into the fractures to prop them open. Sometimes the sand is referred to as a proppant. This increases the permeability of the formation and, hopefully, increases the productivity of the well.
The first directional drilling was performed in 1930 from shore at Huntington Beach, CA, into an offshore deposit of oilsands.
The fracking controversy stems from evidence that fracturing can lead to O&G migration into ground water and then into drinking water. This essay does not address this matter.
Within the O&G drilling world is the question of how far laterally a hole can be drilled and to what extent it pays. According to one source, in 1997 the lateral distance stood at about 500 ft to completion. At present it stands at 3 miles with 4 miles becoming more common. Greater length requires an upgrade in drilling equipment to handle the extra power demands.
Today there are steerable down-hole mud motors that can rotate the drill bit independent of the drill string. Mud is pumped downhole at high pressure to rotate a rotor connected to the bit. The rotor fits in a stator near the end of the drill string. A steerable feature is able to bend ~3 to 4 degrees.
In the literature there is mention of the issues in vertical drilling through a steeply inclined fault. As the bit penetrates a steep fault surface it could slip and lead to damage of the drill string and casing. Better to penetrate a fault perpendicular to the fault plane with directional drilling.
There are many good reasons for a driller to use directional drilling.
A borehole that has gone off-course can be redirected to the desired direction from the same borehole.
From a single drilling site multiple boreholes can be drilled, each going to a different part of the formation.
During a well blow-out or fire, a new borehole can be drilled from a distance to intercept the blown-out borehole and pump material into it to control the blow-out.
A drilling site can be situated away from a settlement or body of water and still get to the oil reservoir by directional drilling.
Directional drilling can be performed in an existing well where equipment or debris is blocking the original bore hole.
Drilling through a salt dome is problematic for several reasons. A soft formation like a salt dome can result in bit balling where the tricone bit packs with debris and the wheels quit turning. Wellbore erosion, salt creep, and excessive mud losses can occur as well.
Salt domes form from plastic deformation of an underlying low density and ductile salt layer (90 to 99 % halite) into a fault or fracture where it is subject to movement by lateral forces of the surrounding sediment layers. These lateral forces push the salt formation in the direction of weakest forces which is generally upwards. Irregular features in the salt dome can lead to collection of oil and gas pockets. Lateral drilling can be used to access the reservoirs, bypassing the salt formation.
Note: Recently I posted an early revision of this essay by accident and had to pull it down. Trembling with embarrassment, I wiped the egg from my face and am now posting the intended version. A thousand pardons.
Imagine the frustration of the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, as he discovers the shortcomings of what was presumed to be a premier conventional military force. Decades of corruption and neglect have eroded the military from within. Meanwhile, their nuclear submarines continue to lurk in the depths of the Atlantic, assessing NATO’s day-to-day preparedness and gathering intelligence. Strategic nuclear forces are best used as a deterrent, or so the thinking has been. Coincidentally, their naval procession to Cuba, intended as a demonstration of power, was no doubt monitored by our network of acoustic sensors.
Runup to the invasion
Why did Putin begin his invasion of eastern and southern Ukraine in February 2014? Publicly he claimed to “de-Nazify” Ukraine. At the time, Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych was facing the Euromaidan uprising beginning in November 2013, over his rejection of closer integration with the EU. This large-scale protest was in response to Yanukovych’s refusal to sign the European Union-Ukraine Association Agreement rather than strengthening ties to Russia.
Putin’s essay
Just prior to the 2022 invasion the Kremlin published an article online by Putin going into great detail on his rationale for a “triune” state consisting of Russia, Belorussia and Ukraine. It was a “come to Jesus” appeal intended to show doubters that a common ethnic brotherhood existed that far exceed the differences between Ukrainians and Russians. He describes the current Ukrainian state as an anti-Russian project also serving the interests of other entities rather than ethnic unity with Russia.
“But the fact is that the situation in Ukraine today is completely different because it involves a forced change of identity. And the most despicable thing is that the Russians in Ukraine are being forced not only to deny their roots, generations of their ancestors but also to believe that Russia is their enemy. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the path of forced assimilation, the formation of an ethnically pure Ukrainian state, aggressive towards Russia, is comparable in its consequences to the use of weapons of mass destruction against us.” -V. Putin, 2022. [Italics mine]
It’s worth noting that in Russian occupied parts of Ukraine, Russification has been underway in order to make Ukrainians forget their culture and to assimilate into Russian culture. Children were kidnapped early in the 2022 invasion and taken to Russia for assimilation.
Referring to the Ukrainian ruling circles, “They began to mythologize and rewrite history, edit out everything that united us, and refer to the period when Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union as an occupation. The common tragedy of collectivization and famine of the early 1930s was portrayed as the genocide of the Ukrainian people.” V. Putin [Italics mine]
Here Putin combines the Ukrainian famine, the Holodomor of 1932-33, with the wider Soviet famine of 1930-33 as a unifying experience that should in his view bring people together in shared tragedy. Whether or not Stalin had intended to cause a genocide of Ukrainians during the Holodomor is still being debated. However, Ukrainians were forcibly prevented from leaving the territory and their agricultural produce was taken from them. The Soviets even took their seed for the next year’s crop (see: Timothy Snyder, “Bloodlands“, 2016, ISBN-13 : 978-0465031474). Whatever the case, the singular focus of Stalin’s first 5-year plan beginning in 1928, was to industrialize the Soviet Union. In Marxist-Leninist political theory, the more prosperous kulaks were class enemies of the poorer peasants. Kulaks were either arrested, executed, sent to the gulag, or to labor camps.
Russian military in the 2022 Putin/Ukrainian war
Within the many layers of rank in the Russian military, there is a notable absence. There is no non-commissioned officer (NCO) level like that found in the US military. Yes, they do have NCOs, but they are technical specialists, or enlisted professionals taken from conscripted or contracted soldiers, uninvolved with small unit leadership and training. That is left for the officer corps. The result has been poor and inconsistent training of recruits. Hazing has long been a problem for the new recruits. Many view the Russian system of military leadership structure as inherently weak and a stubborn vestige of the past.
Perhaps fortified by a misjudgment of their military posture, Putin launched a full-scale military invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, into what has been a sovereign country under the pretense of neutralizing a non-existent threat from supposed Nazi troublemakers as a way to protect Russia. Russian forces quickly began to suffer significant losses in personnel and equipment. Moreover, these defeats have unfolded before an astonished global audience. Fortunately for Putin, his dictatorial foresight had led him to seize control of all media outlets within his borders in the years prior. He watched as his senior military commanders depleted his standing army. Under the pretense of “patriotism,” he drafted civilians and prisoners with the promise of attractive contracts to participate in his ill-conceived “special military operation.” Unfortunately, these soldiers became cannon fodder against the NATO fortified Ukrainian forces. Despite the overall drubbing the Russian military is taking and the half million casualties suffered, they retain the eastern and southern territories annexed prior to the Feb. 2022 invasion.
Putin pays a visit to Kim
Putin’s recent trip to North Korea, reminiscent of Soviet-era diplomacy, and his signing of a mutual assistance agreement with Kim Jong-un, prompted South Korea to reconsider its stance and contemplate supplying arms to Ukraine.South Korea, a manufacturing giant, currently has minimal incentive to engage with Russia as a neutral entity. Russia’s economy, struggling and cash-strapped, requires goods and services. It has been excluded from the international banking system and has seen a decline in amicable trade relations.
Now the word is that DPRK will be sending military engineers to the Putin/Ukraine war. While DPRK’s construction and engineering forces are not referred to as a fighting force, you have to believe that they will fight to defend themselves if they claim to be threatened. What the threshold for “threat” is will eventually be revealed.
Another threat made by Putin is that Russia will send arms to DPRK if the west continues to supply arms to Ukraine. The transfer of technology and materials in aid of the DPRK’s nuclear ICBM ambitions is sure to be the big prize Kim is after. Launching a payload is one thing, but accurate targeting is quite another. I suppose he can use GPS like everyone else does.
We’re hearing that wounded Russian soldiers are being sent back to the front, many with shrapnel from previous combat. I guess they figure that since they are wounded anyway, they might as well get the last bit of mileage left in them. This is certainly no less moral than leaving their dead behind or sending “meat curtains” of poorly trained troops to the front lines. Or, shooting their own soldiers if they retreat from the fighting.
Putin could stop the fighting and carnage in a day if he declared “mission complete” and withdrew his forces from Ukraine and returned claimed territory back to where it was the day of February 24, 2022, invasion. Well, this was the theory of Henry Kissinger. It seems likely, though, that the Ukrainians want back the territory lost in 2014 including Crimea.
Unfortunately for everyone, a withdrawal from Ukraine would be seen in Russia as Putin’s confession of gross incompetence and surely would result in a takeover and death or imprisonment for him.
The Kremlin has used “weaponized migration” elsewhere and is now trafficking immigrants across its western borders through Belorussia, into Finland, the lower Baltic states and Poland in order to overwhelm western border protection and to distract them as he transfers military forces east to the front. At the borders they have been creating a commotion causing western security resources to focus there. This is Russian hybrid warfare and is likely led by Russian intelligence services. Immigrants from various nations like Syria, Iraq and Somalia are given visas in an attempt to make it look like legitimate immigration. One of the goals of these roving throngs of civilians is to travel to western Europe to strain their economies and raise bureaucratic headaches for western governments like Germany. Naturally, saboteurs, spies and terrorists are likely planted in with the immigrants.
Russia has allegedly been jamming or spoofing GPS signals in the Nordic and Baltic Sea region causing interference with commercial air traffic. More Russian hybrid warfare. This affects not only air traffic but ground and sea navigation as well. Commercial air traffic can still fly under inertial navigation or by ground radar between airports and by terminal radar on approach and departure. Terminal radar guides aircraft into the airport instrument landing system (ILS) which is ground based and not affected by GPS. Airlines do monitor their aircraft with the help of GPS, however.
Fighting the last war
There is a saying, attributed to French Prime Minister George Clemenceau, warning generals not to enter conflict by fighting the last war. Putin began with fighting “the last war” with artillery and WWII-era tanks while keeping the Russian population calm with well-crafted fake news continuously delivered to the public. Unexpectedly, he did not seek air superiority starting the first day of the invasion before bringing in ground forces.
The propaganda in Russia today is that they are actually at war with NATO itself with extra blame on the US and UK. Russian war bloggers are even claiming that Ukraine’s drones and missiles can and are being controlled directly by NATO from remote locations. There are many voices on Russian television and in the blogosphere calling for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Putin and Medvedev have also waved this big stick around as well.
In response to Putin’s unwarranted invasion, most of the free world made the decision to withdraw its financial and trade connections, especially with the purchase of oil and gas (O&G). O&G is a huge money maker for Putin’s dictatorship and funds much of Russia’s government. Interestingly, while initially very concerned, the Oligarchs have learned to stop worrying.
Economic effects
An urgent problem presently in the Russian oil industry is the matter of upkeep on imported technology like oil refineries. Russia previously hired foreigners to build and maintain most of its oil refineries and licensed proprietary unit operations. Many of the foreign businesses that supplied these services have left Russia. As the clock tick-tocks along, equipment breaks down or misses scheduled maintenance. Replacement parts have become very difficult to obtain. This has a huge influence on the country’s refinery output in particular and on other industry in general.
Russia’s loss of trading partners is having a deleterious effect. Tax revenues are down into the deficit range across the board and the Russian government is working to introduce new taxes on the people. There is even word that laws are being drafted to increase the range and cost of fines against citizens who fail to put in the required extra effort. According to Forbes, the State Duma is tightening laws relating to labor and business operations are forcing employees to work weekends and holidays, especially if the business is military related.
Nukes behind the curtains
Of course, Putin has his nuclear armaments to fall back on. Much was made previously of the Soviet’s continuum theory of nuclear weapons, whereby they didn’t recognize a firebreak separating conventional and nuclear warfare as the west does. Putin and former president Medvedev both have been rattling their swords, threatening to use their nuclear weapons if the west does not back down in supplying Ukraine with arms. Most think that they threaten to use tactical nukes only. Both sides are quite aware what a nuclear exchange between NATO and Russia would look like. That said, only the first use will be a difficult decision.
Nuclear response in kind by NATO to Russia’s first use in the Russia/Ukraine battle space could possibly be limited to tactical use, but it will have let the nuclear genie out of the bottle nonetheless. Both NATO and Soviet/Russian military institutions have certainly war-gamed a similar scenario to many possible outcomes. People safely distant from the fighting will have to decide the intensity of a nuclear exchange and at what point to release strategic weapons, if needed.
One thing seems clear- a strategic exchange will be WWIII and Russia’s seething hatred of the US will not allow North America to survive untouched by war. Given the geographic and military limitations of Russia and the broad stretches of open ocean around most of the US, shallow trajectory ballistic or cruise missiles launched from Russian submarines are likely to be at play. Maybe an EMP weapon will be used. (Hell, a nuke hidden in a bale of weed could get into the country.) It seems likely that Russian hybrid tactics will first begin to soften the defensive, electric power, transportation and communication structures of the US by interfering with software-controlled everything. Naturally, the fragile stock market will collapse promptly, and unemployment will skyrocket. Toilet paper will vanish as if by magic from the store shelves.
Both NATO and Russia have enough nuclear weapons to go back and bounce the rubble a few times at leisure with their ICBMs and SLBMs. The total warhead count in the world’s nuclear powers is shown below as tallied by the Arms Control Association. The total warhead count for each country includes both tactical and strategic weapons as well as retired warheads. Nuclear weapons have a shelf-life and require some refurbishment over time. For instance, the tritium booster gas in the pit is subject to decay with tritium’s short half-life.
New START data on Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons inventory is shown below. As you can see, Russia’s strategic nuclear weapons inventory is poised to make quite a mess of their target areas from a great distance. On the strategic side (below), nuclear weapons can be delivered to a target across the world via strategic bomber, or a ballistic missile. Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Sea Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), and a collection of shorter range arial platforms could be used in combination.
Will Russia be tempted to try using a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, even if NATO is sure to reply? At what point will a tactical exchange between Russia and NATO runaway to a strategic exchange? It seems unlikely given the terrible strategic downside of NATO retaliation. Certainly, if allowed to act unobstructed, Russia could make quite a nuclear mess in Europe and North America. However, NATO commanders will not allow their nuclear arsenal to be destroyed in storage.
“political power is not intrinsic to the power-holder,” but flows from outside sources that include perceptions of authority, available human resources; skills and knowledge; material resources; and intangible psychological and ideological factors. These sources all depend upon obedience, which arises for “various and multiple” reasons that include habit, fear of sanctions, perceived moral obligation, psychological identification with the ruler, zones of indifference, and absence of self-confidence among subjects. Obedience is essentially voluntary, and consent can be withdrawn. [Wikipedia]
Dictators do not often yield their power without violence, but now and then one will see the futility of fighting to the death against overwhelming resistance and abdicate after a face-saving attempt to stifle the uprising. This happened in the late 1980’s in eastern Europe leading up to the collapse of the Soviet Union under Gorbachev in 1991.
Russia will not change its ways until there is a decapitation at the upper few levels of its authoritarian police state. The population has been too passive for too long to expect a popular uprising like the Velvet Revolution in Czechoslovakia in 1989. Russian opposition leaders are either poisoned, defenestrated or sent to prison as a security threat. Only a military coup could pull off a major change in leadership, but then you have a military authoritarian state.
A time-honored way to generate and maintain unity in a nation is to direct blame and struggle towards a foreign power. Both sides in the post-WWII cold war, NATO and the USSR, used this to focus resources and political angst in their respective favor. Putin has managed to revive this “good vs evil” duality not only to secure his power, but also to drive ethnic Russians toward his goal of a Greater Russian Empire.
There you have it. Lauren “Bobo” Boebert (R-CO) switched congressional districts with her carpet bag packed with a tattered personal history and managed to beat four opponents and win the 2024 District 4 Republican primary in Colorado. She left her western slope district where things were looking grim and scampered across the mountains to eastern Colorado where she found primary victory.
Source: Wikipedia. Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District. Where Bobo bailed.
Source: Wikipedia. Colorado’s 4th Congressional District. Where Bobo parachuted in.
Bobo is popular especially with the angry rural white conservative bunch which can be found everywhere to some extent. On a recent trip through the desolate Paradox Valley passing through the town of Bedrock in western Colorado we saw multiple Boebert campaign signs crammed in the scrub brush. Her spirit even lurks in Bedrock.
Lauren’s conservative fundamentalism and support for Trump appeals to a great many. You can protest to a supporter that she is crude, somewhat dense, and harbors appalling political beliefs. But it matters not to her supporters because she is one of Trump’s more aggressive attack dogs, and that is a virtue to them.
Formerly a swing state, Colorado has been electing Democrat state representatives since 2008 and presently has 5 out of 8 members of the US house and two Democrats in the senate. Conservatives are more predominant in the east and west thirds of the state and Democrats are concentrated along the I-25 urban corridor from Ft. Collins south to Pueblo. An exception to this liberal corridor is Colorado Springs, located an hour south of Denver. It is known for its large and politically influential evangelical conservative community.
Colorado Springs is also the home of James Dobson’s Focus on the Family fundamentalist protestant organization as well as many, many others. According to the Cause IQ website, there are 623 Christian non-profit organizations in the Springs with 8,150 employees, revenues of $804,278,628, and with assets totaling $777,104,922. Protestant fundamentalism is big business. By contrast, Catholic non-profit organizations only number at 13 with $5,003,712 in revenues.
These conservatives can be reliably counted on for wanting to convert the country into an authoritarian theocratic state if given the chance. The USA started as an effort to separate itself from a theocratic monarchy in the Revolutionary War and now finds itself full of people who want a protestant authoritarian theocracy. Really dumb.
Here is a truly naïve question: What is wrong with Russia? Why can’t Russian leaders focus on their own damned affairs rather than conquest or their clandestine efforts to destabilize other governments? From the western side of the globe this seems like a fair question. Are their lessons from history so scrambled that they have not learned some basic axioms of humane civilization? What happened to them? Why the perpetual paranoia, brutishness and authoritarianism?
It is important to separate “Kremlin” from “Russian people”. The Kremlin is a Moscow-based institution presided over by Russia’s national leadership. The Russian people are those working citizens distant from the Kremlin. Naturally, the Kremlin purports to represent the interests of the Russian people. Many say that the Kremlin represents an oligarchy inside and outside of the government. Most would say that Russia’s tradition of bribery and graft is rampant and even a built-in feature and not a bug. Whatever the case, it seems clear from the news that Russia’s military/industrial complex is riddled to the core with corruption.
The USSR and later Russia claim that they are threatened by Western adventurism and interference in their sovereign affairs. The lengthy Cold War between NATO and the Kremlin was largely about the spread of Soviet socialism and undesired political alignments between factions. Western countries were busy in the post-WWII years waging proxy battles and clandestine buggery with client states of the USSR and China. For our part, America didn’t do so well. In contrast with the Allied victory in Europe and Japan in WWII, the US had to sign an armistice with North Kores, a peace accord with North Viet Nam with the lightning-fast collapse of South Viet Nam, followed by the clumsy hijinks leading to the Iran-Contra scandal in the 80’s.
Kremlin policy would seem to be that “interfering in Russian Affairs” includes materiel support for emerging democracies around the world. This “interference” is justification for the incessant brinksmanship and covert meddling issuing from the Kremlin.
The US and coalition forces successfully routed the Iraqis in Kuwait in 1990 with the start of what became Gulf War I. After liberating Kuwait, US President George H.W. Bush invaded the Republic of Iraq destroying a good bit of their military but left Saddam Hussein in power. By 2003 George H.W.’s son, President George W. Bush, oversaw a clearly bogus campaign to take down Saddam right after the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. The smoke and mirrors show put on by the Bush administration conflating al Queda in Afghanistan with imaginary Iraqi weapons of mass destruction led to Saddam being quickly toppled and captured while hidden is a hole in the ground, tried and finally hung by his own people.
What the US-led coalition failed to appreciate was that Saddam held together Iraq by brute force and murder. Coalition forces swooped in and shut down his government without any thought as to the pragmatics of who will run the country the next day. There was the intent of giving birth to democracy with elections, but the power vacuum created by the toppling of Saddam and the dissolution of his government gave opportunity to numerous factions who jumped at it. This was the Iraqi insurgency which lasted until the US withdrawal in 2011.
US interventionism aimed at regime change by force or by covert efforts to remove certain leaders has a spotty record. Chili, Cuba and Nicaragua for example. The point is that US leaders have badly botched many schemes to cultivate governments friendly to US ambitions.
The first thing to remember is that we Americans view Russia through the smudged lens of our own popular culture and history. Over the decades since the end of WWII our self-appraisal of our many merits has swollen and become distended. The MAGA crowd seems to think there was a period of time when America was “Great”. I’d like to know when this happened. I’ve never heard MAGA people cite a particular time when this greatness occurred. Maybe they are thinking of the outcome of WWII and the succeeding few years. Perhaps it was their senior year of high school or during the summer break after third grade. When people?
As I survey American history as an amateur historian I have yet to find a halcyon period in America when peace and calm enveloped the land and all was well. With magnification, history is very granular and every year is a braided stream of tragedies, scoundrels and bad luck with the occasional patches of wonder and joy somewhere for a few. Well, perhaps this is all we can expect. Maybe the world really is a grubby place occupied mostly by people who are often nice, and with more than a few crackpots and psychopaths sprinkled here and there to round out the bell curve.
To be sure, we Americans have done a great deal to advance civilization overall in many ways. This has largely come through the allocation of funds in a resource-rich continent through capitalism, taxes and primed with incentivizing programs from the government after the New Deal. While necessity is the mother of invention, who can actually organize and monetize this necessity by asking for competitive bids on a moon project? A government can. Rather than “trickle-down” economics, this is pumped-down economics, and it works.What do the wealthy do with their tax savings? Trickle it down? Hardly, though some may allocate a bit of trickle-down money in venture capital firms, but that’s risky. Better to invest in solid assets like beachfront property in Florida.
The land that we call Russia, apart from the Siberian reaches of eastern Russia, has been home to many diverse peoples. One Wikipedia reference cites the beginning of Russia in the north with the Eastern Slavs in 862 CE and ruled by Viking conquerors. On this timeline, it is clear that people in the region have been in war, civil conflict or crushing poverty and authoritarianism almost continuously since then. The baseline condition of a great many people of Russia and nearby lands was the grinding poverty of serfdom and were only emancipated in 1861 by Tsar Alexander II. There have been invasions by the Mongols, Ottomans, Swedes, Napolean, Hitler, uprisings and fratricidal infighting for power. It is hard to know what occupants of the Moscow Kremlin are thinking. Russia seems destined to be ruled by an iron fist.
Unlike the English-speaking peoples, Russia never had a Magna Carta in their past outlining agreed upon limits to the power of the monarch. The very notion of wider participation in the conduct of government affairs was unknown. Democratic virtues taken for granted by western states never took hold in Russia. There was initially some hope for democracy after the fall of the Soviet Union by some, but there were no institutional and legal structures in place from which to operate a democratic republic. Worse yet, people were unemployed en masse and became frustrated by the lack of a “freedom dividend” and eventually there was support for a strongman leader. The collapse of the USSR left a power vacuum waiting to be filled. Yeltsin proved to be the wrong guy to inherit the reigns of power from the collapsed Soviet Politburo. He was widely seen as a drunken fool.
Russia had no history of conducting private business within the umbrella of international business law and capitalistic norms. What business law and intellectual property protection there may have been was from the Soviet era. Instead, there was a scramble to acquire the big industrial and financial pieces left over from the old USSR.
I’ve not found anything in the history of Russia that may have been a home-grown template for constructing a workable version of democracy. Russia’s long geographic and cultural isolation from the West doesn’t seem to have helped with the migration of what we might call the norms of democratic society. To be sure, Tsar Peter I (Peter the Great) had spent time in England and learned a great deal about shipbuilding and navigation, eventually leading to the formation of the Russian Baltic Fleet. King William III of England welcomed Peter because of the potential for trade with Russia.
The Soviets were successful in adopting some Western technologies and just enough consumerism to placate their population … partly. Unlike Western Europe, the USA, Canada and even Mexico who continue to be inundated by migrants wanting to get in, the USSR, on the other hand, had to contend with its citizens trying to escape. This is still a problem today in Russia. People vote with their feet.
Back to the initial question. Why can’t Vlad play nice? We can only guess. He is not burdened with a national history of a capitalistic democratic republic or with utopian visions of a liberal democratic society bursting with opportunities for everyone. Vlad is a product of his upbringing as a KGB officer in a closed and isolated security state with a population long accustomed to going along with what the central authoritarian leadership forcibly requires. As a former KGB operative in East Germany, he understands authoritarian rule at the ground level. While bubbling up the chain of command he mastered the complex internal Kremlin politics and managed to get selected by Yeltsin to succeed him. Lucky guy. But when will he decide enough is enough? Today, his poorly conceived plan to expand Russian influence by overtaking Ukraine has backfired, leading to over 500,000 Russian military casualties. Along with the loss of a large fraction of his conventional military armaments like tanks, cannon, radar, air defense systems, aircraft, naval vessels and so on, he has singlehandedly exposed the Russian military for what it is- a paper tiger, but only in conventional arms. He still has a potent nuclear triad to serve as his final stinger.
Lamentations on Chemistry 