Farewell to Arthur C. Clark
I’m saddened by the recent passage of the science and science fiction (SF) writer Arthur C. Clark. I blundered into the SF works of Clark, Asimov, and a few others as a high school sophomore. Freshly relocated from the midwest in 1971, I fell into a social group that was largely scientifically and technically oriented. We shunned hippies, pot, and cigarettes in favor of electronics, SF, chess, and physics. We were juvenile scientists and engineers.
I have always enjoyed the narrative style of Clark. He was able to write thought provoking SF with dialog that was comfortable yet focused. He could manage plot development with technical subjects without collapse into a pedantic or evangelical tone.
What I am left with from my years of reading SF is a particular world view. My vision of the future is greatly shaped by numerous SF stories written over the last 75 years. It is an egalitarian world where people have reasoned their way around nuclear self-immolation. A world where the quest for knowledge is prized and where the extinguishment of pain and suffering is sought by all. Greed has been abandoned as a way of life. People spend the bulk of their lives seeking pleasure and understanding, not just the next meal.
But, it’s just science fiction.
Herr Doktor Professor
According to the March 10, 2008 issue of C&EN, a number of US PhD scientists working at Max Planck are facing charges for illegal use of the title “Dr.” According to the article, the title Dr is reserved for graduates of EU universities. From C&EN-
According to German criminal law, the title “Dr.” is reserved only for individuals who received a doctoral degree from a European Union institution, explains Erik Kraatz, a criminal lawyer at the Free University, Berlin. Kraatz notes that the law also prohibits masquerading as a police officer, medical doctor, or professor.
Indeed, to legally use the title “Dr.” in Germany, foreign-trained scientists must request permission from their local German state government. With this state-level consent, they can use the title “Dr.” anywhere in the country. But without the state’s permission to use the title, a scientist breaks two laws: the state law requiring approval to use the “Dr.” title and the federal impersonation law, Kraatz says.
Breaking the state law is punishable with a fine akin to that associated with a traffic ticket. However, breaking the federal law is punishable by a larger fine or up to one year in jail, Kraatz adds.
This is a very hard-core, nanny-state policy to apply to an honorific. Golly. To avoid trouble with Interpol, I’ll make sure to change my business cards and my email lest I be mistaken for a physician wannabe. Heavens. We don’t want that. \;-)
Hopefully someone in the German legislature will propose a reform for this ridiculous law.
Scattered Bits and Bobs
No rest for the wicked. I have been requested and required by the boss to attend the ACS meeting in NOLA. Lots to get done before departure. I’ll have to get my liver conditioned for a visit to the French Quarter.
I have been using the thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) for fun and profit lately. It is quite useful in solving certain kinds of problems in process development. Of course, if we attached a chain it might make a dandy boat anchor too. Just kidding … mostly.
Lots of chemistry is presently under development in the USA. It is premature to concede the future of technology development to Asia just yet. There are lots of companies struggling to get their new technologies to market- I see this every day. This is in stark contrast to news of the tragic comedy on Wall Street. It is important to remember that the stock market is only one of many indicators of economic vitality. It seems to me that the current maelstrom is based on negligent banking practices, not industrial weakness.
Back to the hood. Gotta ice the trap on the vac line.
Disposable Reactors
Disposable reactors are here. According to ICIS, Marlborough, MA, based Xcellerex is offering disposable bioreactors for biologics manufacture. These single-use reactors are available in the 40-2000 Liter working volume range. The company offers several reasons for why their product might be desirable. They argue that more time will be available for productive reactor operation as opposed to having production down part of the time for reactor cleanout and validation.
The battle for high throughput moves to a new level. Xcellerex states that the installed capital cost is ca 1/2 that of hardpiped reactors. They make the case that delays due to cleaning are reduced and that plant time is used more efficiently.
Monte Carlo Analysis
Th’ Gaussling is surfing the net looking at freeware. The possibilities are amazing. It’s like I’ve crawled up from underground onto a sunny Brazilian beach full of nubile sunbathers frolicking in the waves. It’s all just too wonderful to be true …
[sound of needle scratching across record]
So I’m new to Monte Carlo simulations. I have some economic modeling to do and it has become apparent to me that mere spreadsheet grinding isn’t enough. To make a more convincing case I need to introduce plausible cost variances somehow by mixing and blending various kinds of guesswork distribution curves from the elements of the project. There is a particular Project Risk and Contingency Analysis software that seems reasonable to start with. It would be interesting to hear of experiences others may have had with Monte Carlo project modeling.
Ear to the Ground
My comments on recession come strictly from news and from petrochemical industry publications. I have not seen any indication that manufacturing of specialty chemicals (at least in the waters I swim in) are as yet affected by the economic turmoil that the lending fiasco triggered. Eventually orders will taper some, but the how much and when is not at all clear.
It takes a while for the effects of a downturn to filter upstream to all sectors of chemical manufacturing. The first effects will likely be a pushback on delivery of existing orders. Then, the period between succesive orders will lengthen as businesses closer to the consumers will start to trim down inventories and throughput. Finally, sales forecasts will begin to report spotty sales projections 2 or 3 quarters out. Eventually, you run into those weak quarters and have to find a way to limp through them.
The important question relating to petrochemicals (aromatics, naphtha, ethylene, propylene, etc) is where does price elasticity really kick in for hydrocarbon intensive goods as crude prices continue to rise and the dollar continues to devalue?
Packaging materials like PE, PS, and PP, etc. are very often not the primary product consumers are looking for. They are produced for sellers of consumer goods as packaging materials. The purchasing decision maker is not the person strolling down the isles of Wal-Mart, but rather the product manufacturers who have to package the goods.
This economic disturbance seems unique. Demand from the global middle class is growing as the US economy falters. Demand for hydrocarbon fuels and manufacturing feedstocks is strong from Asia for their own consumption. But Asian production is also strongly linked to the demand of their products from the west. Predicting how this thing plays out is very tricky.
Polymer membranes, HDPE pipe, PVC pipe, automotive assemblies and fascia are all large consumers of hydrocarbon products. Demand for these materials, obviously, should parallel the health of construction and automotive industries. But as the US transitions to a net importer of polymers, the connection to US economics is murky.
I suppose the best business to be in is war profiteering and security, at least as long as a war president is in office. It seems to be shielded from the raw forces of economics. As long as the gov’t can print money, special interests can be paid. A good career would be as a translator between Arabic and Mandarin.
Some Men Like Cheese
If you appreciate the famous cantata Carmina Burana by Carl Orff, you’ll love this interpretation. It is not a small download, but it is worth it.
Enjoyed a decent local production of Guys and Dolls last night. The parts of Miss Adelaide and Sister Sarah Brown (soprano) were particularly well played. The soprano could really belt it out- It was spectacular. I shared the table with a theatre director and a quantum physicist. Interesting mix.
Platinum Group Metals Update
14 March, 2008. As the deepening US gravity well continues to tug at the recession asteriod that is looming ever larger in the sky, we see a steady line of investors boarding Platinum Group Metal (PGM) investment vehicles for immediate launch off this doomed planet.
Monday and friday opening EIB prices over the week of 3/10/08 thru 3/14/08.
Silver– US$19.70/toz; US$20.77/toz.
Gold– US$971.55/toz; US$1,0005.86/toz
Palladium– US$470.00/toz; US$516.00/toz
Platinum– US$1,960.00/toz; US$2,110.00/toz
The geology of PGM deposits is quite interesting. There are numerous resources detailing the Bushveld Igneous Province (or Complex) in South Africa. Check it out.
Green Innovation Lag
It is not unusual for a long time to elapse between an initial customer inquiry and when commercial quantities of product are loaded on the truck and driven out the gate. I have seen it happen over 1 to 10 years, with 3 years being quite common. The chemical industry is not like the semiconductor business. The paradigm shift period seems much longer. In fact, any given chemical processing technology can last for a large part of a career or more. The last big chemical paradigm shift I have noticed is high throughput experimentation (HTE). Maybe others have a more recent example.
Green chemistry is considered by many to be a new frontier of opportunity. To its detriment, many of us are unsure of what green chemistry really is and how to implement it in manufacturing. Realistically, for green chemistry to find wide acceptance, it needs to turn a profit or offer some kind of concrete advantage. Pollution avoidance is too abstract. For any new method or technology, there must be a payoff.
It seems simple. Reduce VOC emissions by using aqueous solvent compositions. Increase atom efficiency in transformations. Minimize persistant pollutants, organic or metal. Increase space yields, reduce consumables. Green chemistry is not so easily demonstrated to the public and it may not be in the public domain. Your green technology may be proprietary, so the ballyhoo factor will collapse to zero. The processor may have to labor down the green path in silence.
A process changeover to a green process may require many people in several companies to align to the change like compass needles to the north pole. A chemical process change must offer some kind of improvement that, by consensus, is meritorious. There is a good chance that the change will require notification of the customer and possibly even their permission. Customers often want a price concession when there is a process change so they can capture some of the value, so this may mean reduced sales volume and profits for the processor.
The customer may require that the proposed process change will be cause for a new validation of their customers product, in which case, the final user will also have to perform a validation. In all likelihood, you are proposing a green change to a process that previously offered no problem to the downstream users.
Obviously, the time for green process implementation is at the very beginning of process development. The development chemist must have an existing toolbag of techniques, transformations, and reagents to choose from to go forward with implementation. The best way to get to this point is with curriculum change at the university level. Chemists need to have green chemistry awareness from the beginning of their training. Converting souls when they are already within industry is the hard way to do it.
Microscale labs in the undergrad experience maybe green for the university, but it is hard to see how it translates to the implementation of green technology in industry. The green revolution must come from textbooks that use green transformations in chemistry and engineering coursework. It must come from professors who weave it into their lectures and provide examples of such transformations and practices in the lab experience.
Chemists and engineers from such backgrounds must move into industry and become group leaders and managers. Only at this point will green chemistry become “normal” and expected.
