PGM Prices Remain Strong

Password Blues

Our IT guy has been hounding us to make better choices for login passwords into the company information system. More characters, digits, and the use of mixed case is recommended. Like many people, I have accounts in diverse systems that are not connected. Not every system gives me a choice of login names and passwords. Eventually one ends up with a variety of codewords that one has to keep straight. Soon it becomes a little burdensome.

There is a website that purports to provide random character strings. It is Random.org. The operator of the site is a lecturer in computer science at Trinity College and uses atmospheric noise from a group of radios to capture random events that are somehow translated into character strings.

If you need strings of random digits, there is von Neumann’s middle square method. It can be done on a calculator. While it is hard to guarantee that there isn’t some kind of periodicity, von Neumann felt this method suited his needs.

I wonder to what extent the shaky state of internet security depends on the structure and prevalence of Microsoft code? I have no idea.

The Deciders

1 Reply

Larry, Moe, and Curly. Or some Rogers and Hammerstein musical horribly miscast.

Literature Swim. The Guo-Liu Catalyst.

Open Letter to Congress. The Question of Authorship.

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Dear Honorable Members of the US House and Senate,

I write to you in an effort to bring a measure of clarity to the legislation that is drafted and voted upon by both houses of the congress. The matter I wish to address is the matter of authorship of the actual text of bills sponsored by members of the House and Senate. In the interest of transparency, it seems reasonable for citizens to know exactly who deserves credit for the intellectual content, or the ideas and the language, that is put into law. We know that the actual legislator is far too busy to do the wordsmithing and idea crafting that goes into the drafting of a bill. In that vein, I believe that the citizens or groups who actually craft the document deserve some credit for the work.

Consider for example, HR 5695. The header of the document lists all of the sponsors of the bill.

HR 5695 IH

109th CONGRESS2d SessionH. R. 5695

To amend the Homeland Security Act of 2002 to provide for the regulation of certain chemical facilities, and for other purposes.

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

June 28, 2006

Mr. DANIEL E. LUNGREN of California (for himself, Mr. THOMPSON of Mississippi, Mr. SHAYS, Ms. LORETTA SANCHEZ of California, Mr. LINDER, Ms. HARMAN, Mr. MCCAUL of Texas, Ms. JACKSON-LEE of Texas, Mr. SIMMONS, Mrs. CHRISTENSEN, and Mr. FOSSELLA) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Homeland Security, and in addition to the Committee on Energy and Commerce, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned

But the actual owner of the concepts, the crafter of the ideas is at present unknown. It is hard to believe that the Honorable Representative Lungren spent countless hours in the library of congress researching this bill. How much supervision is given and how close does the language represent the will of the constituents? Somehow, the person or persons who drafted the bill are accorded anonymity in their composition of a bill that affects the entire country.

I believe that the persons and the organizations who draft documents which become public laws should be given some kind of co-authorship or citation. In fact, it should be manditory that they be given co-authorship. Ideas good or bad that wind their way into public law should be traceable to the Author. How else can we find out what they were thinking? Could it be true that major pieces of legislation are being imposed on the people of the United States under the pen of ghostwriters? Who are these ghostwriters?

Kindest regards,

Th’ Gaussling (pseudonym, just for irony)

Economic Katrina

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I’m reluctant to sound alarmed, but with the apparent shape of an impending economic Katrina moving over North America, it is getting harder to grant the benefit of the doubt. The dollar is sinking, exposing this import-heavy nation of ours to price increases in nearly every sector. The petroleum resources that energize global production and grease all economic skids is generating considerable doubt and turmoil in financial circles.

Oil production is flat in many key regions but the demand for consumer goods by the global middle class is expanding. Our television-enchanted population, brains scrambled to numbness by chronic exposure to American Idol, are seeing only what the media powerbrokers want us to see. The eternal message that comes from TV is spend, spend, spend.

The popular economic indicator is the stock market. The DJIA up- good. The DJIA down- bad. It is a sort of pallative. We’re lulled into a false comfort zone by the meta-stability of todays stockmarket. Other dots are beginning to line up into a harmonic convergence, however.

Yesterday, as a humorous conversation starter, I asked a senior colleague well placed in the petroleum industry this question- “when will crude oil hit $150/bbl?”. His reply surprised me. He estimated that it would happen this summer. Later, tempering his answer somewhat, he suggested that it would be more like $130/bbl, and mostly on the strength of nervousness in the market. He added that at present, crude oil stocks in the USA were in ample supply.

The extended weakness in the dollar seems to favor American exporters and disfavors import consumers. Hmmm. Does gov’t inaction on the weakness of the dollar amount to bias for corporate constituents and neglect of unincorporated citizens? Curious.

Advice- payoff as much debt as possible. Insulate your house. Get rid of that gas guzzler. Accumulate greater savings. A lot of the soon-to-be-unemployed are going to face higher higher gasoline prices for their commute to the new job at the auto salvage yard. And when they get back to their trailer at night, the thermostat will be set low due to higher heating costs. Beans and weenies, Mac-n-Cheese. Bon apetite!

Political Analysis Paralysis

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The election season is far too long. Every minute of this tedious pageant is filled with relentless microanalysis of the latest minutiae. No nuance is too small for the CNN impresario Wolf Blitzer or the goon squad at Fox News to dwell in an endless vortex of speculation and rhetorical webspinning.

Fox News in particular is incredibly brazen in its rightwing bent. Most hotels in which I have stayed recently favor this news source with a prominent spot on the channel selection. The pretense of neutrality is long gone. They are the Republican Broadcasting Network and have the same saccharin evangelical flavor as Pat Robertsons cable freakshow. What liberal media? Hollywood? Please. Hollywood is just another kind of freakshow with better costumes.

I can see how countries devolve into unstable conditions where deep ideological differences disrupt the peace and lead to open conflict. I’d be in favor of secession of a few states if these rightwing boneheads wanted their own country. Just keep an eye on the nukes. There is deep frustration in this country and the only thing keeping angry mobs off the streets is relative prosperity.

Republican control is only paper thin. After the ’08 election, Democrat control will only be paper thin. The only thing that has happened in the Clinton and Bush II epochs is that both conservatives and liberals have become more articulate in their opposing positions.

Now I’m microanalyzing. It’s like a disease.

Polyolefin Migration

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The worlds burgeoning middle class has a voracious appetite for polymers and this has compelled other regions of the world to execute a refining and manufacturing buildup that will cause an upcoming oversupply situation. In particular, Middle Eastern and Asian PE and PP capacity will take a sharp upturn, shifting supply patterns and causing margins to fall. Demand for North American (NAm) polyolefin (PO) products will enter what is projected to be a permanent decline as capacity and market share shifts to other longitudes.

Fortunately for US interests, many PO producers have anticipated this and have diversified through significant structural changes increasing access to the far regions of the world. This fact alone should buffer the upcoming downturn in the industry. Projections I have seen suggest that the NAm PO market should be back up to present levels by 2012 as the new capacity operates as price taker rather than a price maker. Eventually for NAm and the EU, finished goods imports will overtake market growth and a period of decline will ensue.

The new world I am describing is projected to happen in 2009. We are about to feel the gravitational pull of the “New Gulf”. The Old Gulf- Gulf of Mexico- will take a back seat to the Gulf in the Middle East.

One weakness of the New Gulf seems to be ethylene. US capacity for the extraction of ethane from natural gas and its conversion to ethylene is an advantage that will buoy NAm PE business for a while. But once Middle East and Asian operators learn to run their plants efficiently, NAm facilities will face the somber truth of the marketplace. NAm will become a net importer of PO’s.

Asian demand for PO’s is growing so rapidly that it may never become a net exporter of PP and PE.

One factor that I do not understand yet is the effect on petroleum supplies and the cost pressures therein. Increased capacity giving lower prices could increase petroleum and gas scarcity resulting in increased prices of petro-energy.

A.I. Meyers Memorial Ceremony

Road trip