Boiling the Frog. US Export of “Chemical Problematics”.

Recent announcements by some of the big players in chemical manufacturing are stunning in their magnitude and implication for our western hemisphere. Like the movement of tectonic plates, business landmasses are shifting and grinding their way to other parts of the world.

Last summer AstraZeneca announced that it will leave manufacturing all together. According to C&EN, Merck is downsizing its staff by 7000 jobs and reducing its number of sites by 20 %. Pfizer is reportedly closing or otherwise trimming off 29 sites.

Recently, Dow announced its departure from commodity chemicals with the upcoming US$9.5 billion joint venture with Petroleum Industrial Chemicals (PIC) of Kuwait.

Some of this migration to the far side of the world will place the companies in a better market position to compete with rising demand in the distant corners of the world. Many of the players are already multinational in structure and have existing units elsewhere, so changes amount to consolidation.

What concerns me is the extent to which R&D and product development is being transferred off-shore. Like the frog in slowly warming water, no alarm is noted because from moment to moment the comfort level changes only slightly. But eventually, the warm water becomes hot and the inattentive frog gets cooked.  It is hard to escape the notion the US and EU are the frog in a warming pot of water.

Outsourcing is a choice, not a law.  A company has to choose to outsource rather than find other options. But to be fair, a company has its hands tied in many ways by regulatory or competitive constraints that are hard to contend with economically. 

Compliance with the confusing web of overlapping jurisdictions and increasingly harsh regulations pertaining to the manufacture, transport, and consumption of chemicals is wearing down the willingness of US companies to continue to manufacture in North America. Instead, we export “Chemical Problematics”.

A chemical product can become problematic in several ways- 1) commoditization, 2) patent expiration, 3) liability blooming, 4) raw material scarcity, and 5) regulatory compliance costs. 

In the life cycle of a successful product, it is inevitable that competition will discover the market and find a way to supply competing goods and services. This is commoditization. Eventually, you will lose control of your market exclusivity and others will set up their lemonade stand next to yours and sell for a nickel cheaper.

A major issue for pharma is the near term expiration of patents protecting highly profitable products. High cost manufacturing can be sustained by suitably profitable products. Exclusivity is the keystone that keeps the entry from collapsing. But when the patents expire, the Huns storm the gate and take over with lower priced generics.

What I call liability blooming is a circumstance wherein an existing product suddenly becomes the focus of some liability problem. It can be a drug that suddenly starts showing bad side effects, or it can be a product that has come into the  radar of the regulatory agencies.  Materials that carry a penalty for their use in terms of liability exposure are difficult or impossible to continue using. If an end product carries a legal liability, it is probably dead as a product. But if materials used in its manufacture- but not final composition- develop liability issues, manufacturing under the current regulatory environment can become prohibitively expensive.

Raw material scarcity is becoming a widespread problem for US manufacturers. As outsourcing becomes more prevalent, key raw materials for a given product may become unavailable in the US. As long as one can source the materials, this is not such a bad problem. But what about strateging substances needed for national defense? I have spoken with government procurement people who are increasingly having to resort to off-shore vendors for defense-related products and materials. Electronic products have a high reliance on some rather exotic substances and national defense is increasingly reliant on such technology. Indium and neodymium are examples of elements that are becoming quite scarce and whose loss from the market would have a high impact on many products. 

For any growing chemical company, the first real expense of regulatory compliance is for staffing. Increasingly, regulatory compliance requires a staff of specialists who serve as internal watchdogs for non-compliance and manage compliance programs that trail documentation much like a cable ship pays out cable into the murky ocean deep. 

Chemical products vary in their regulatory compliance paperwork according to type. Chemicals that are not used by the public out in the open like pesticides may be generally less complex to manage. TSCA is for materials that do not meet the criteria for food, drug, or pesticide use. Compounds that are used in B2B markets and will never be darkened by the shadow of consumers are still subject to complex TSCA regulations. But TSCA registry is not forever.  The ever shifting sands of TSCA registry may place a product into further examination by EPA if a new application is contemplated.  The all-seeing-eye of compliance managers may be strained as SNUR’s affecting product use can show up in the Federal Register at any time.

There are lots of good reasons not to start a chemical business in the US these days. Public or private companies are increasingly in competition with nationalized business entities abroad. Petroleum, petroleum products, and defense in particular are markets where western companies are having to compete with nationalized organizations that can swing a big money stick as well as influence national policy.

The US and EU are sliding into a Nanny State mentality microgoverned by those schooled in the Precautionary Principle.  Timid acolytes shuffling along the hallways of regulatory agencies and cock-sure MBA’s strutting like roosters in their corporate headquarters are independently guiding US culture to an epoch of de-industrialization. 

Catalyst Recovery. Gaussling’s 6th Epistle to the Bohemians.

In catalyst development literature it is often stated that the particular catalyst under study can be recovered for re-use with full or nearly full activity.  I have heard this proclamation at meetings and in conversation as well.  Having spent a bit of my adult life analyzing process economics, I would like to comment on this matter. 

The world of chemical processing can be coarsely divided into two regimes- continuous and batch processing.  Since my hands-on continuous processing experience amounts to less than a year of time, I’ll limit my comments to batch processing. 

In this post I’ll define catalyst recycling as an operation wherein a catalytically active substance is recovered from a process stream and made available for another run. There are a great many catalysts and a great many applications, so generalizations are hazardous.  Nonetheless, there are a few generalizations to be made.

For a batch liquid-phase process performed in a multipurpose reactor, there are operations that are common to all processes.  Charging the reactor with raw materials, heating or cooling, agitation, reflux/distillation, discharging the contents, and cleaning. All of these operations consume resources and plant time. Generally speaking, any change that reduces consumption without harming the product could be considered a process improvement.

For catalyst recycling to qualify as a process improvement, some kind of consumption would have to be reduced over the useful lifetime of the material: i.e., reduction of time and/or materials. Obviously, reuse of a catalyst holds the potential to reduce the consumption expense of the catalyst over the course of the campaign. 

Before we draw any conclusions, it is useful to review the requirements put upon any material that might be used in a process. In bulk processing, raw materials are obtained from suppliers who have the necessary experience to provide the material.  But of equal importance, the vendor must have the necessary quality control mechanisms in place to warrant that the delivered product meets the promised specifications.

For instance, if you use butyllithium, you must be assured that all of the raw materials going into the process- reagents, solvents, etc.- meet a low water specification.  You have to know that the aryl bromide you are using isn’t contaminated with HBr or a polybrominated side product. There has to be assurance that all raw materials going into the pot meet some minimum purity.  A chemical processing company must know how to manage change.

Bulk processing is all about stability and predictability. You can’t rely simply on having ordered the proper grade of raw material. You need a certificate of analysis showing that the composition of the lot meets your in-house spec. When a vendor issues a cert, they are warranting the purity and accepting some risk as a result of sending bad product.

Management of change is a business methodology compelling an organization to adopt a standard procedure for the evaluation and approval of chemical process changes.  For instance, just because the chemists say that a change should be made to a scaled-up process doesn’t mean that it has to happen tomorrow if ever. The proposed change has to go through a protocol that exposes it to safety and economic scrutiny.  Frankly, it also spreads the potential blame for mishaps and economic disasters, so others have motivation to evaluate the process from a fresh view and sign-off.

The re-use of a catalyst brings forth the possibility that the activity of the catalyst could be altered in some way from one run to the next. There could be a downward trend in activity or some kind of variability. This means that a reused catalyst charged into the reactor could be a different catalyst from one run to the next. Potentially, what you saved in catalyst costs you might lose in extra plant hours or lower yield due to degraded performance or from outright process upsets.

Naturally, any kind of catalyst recycle has to be researched and understood by the R&D group and by the cost accountants.  Catalyst recycling will involve an operation to retrieve the material from the product or raffinate streams and to prepare it for the next run. Stable activity will have to be demonstrated, preferably under the influence of a variety of off-normal conditions.

Someone- a chemist or engineer- will have to sit down and do the calculations to see if there is a net benefit to the re-use of the catalyst against the backdrop of diminished performance, variability, or added operation costs. 

The point is that catalyst recycling isn’t automatically desirable. A recycling scheme that requires many labor hours to purify the catalyst may sour the benefit of the action. Another issue that may arise is the matter of validation of the re-used catalyst.  The company will have to decide if or when activity validation is necessary.  For a pot full of expensive precursor, a wink and a grin from the analysts may not be enough. A qualification run at the bench may be needed.

Here are my favorite catalyst attributes for batch processing- 1) high turnover number, 2) selective, 3) cheap enough to use once and send to waste disposal, 4) not a PGM (Platinum Group Metal)- PGM’s are subject to large market price variations, and 5) doesn’t contain one of the bad actors that trigger EPA thuggery or public protests- Hg, Cd, Cr(VI), etc. Metals are forever.

Catalyst recycle makes no sense, of course, in a one-time process run. A wise operator will calculate a price to cover the catalyst cost. But it may make sense if a plant is to start an extended run of batches, or if the catalyst is rare or expensive. Sometimes recycle has merit.  The point is that a sober cost calculation should be made prior to the implementation of recycle schemes.

At the beginning of the article I stated that some generalizations were possible. I will modify that in saying that PGM’s in the catalyst may necessitate the recovery, though not necessarily the re-use, of the metal for return credit to the supplier.

A View of Mars

2040 MST. Just back from a short evening volunteering under the telescope at the observatory. It has cooled to a temperature that we science people classify as “danged cold” – there was frost inside the dome and the slit drive motor labored in the cold.  A small chattering group queued up in the frigid darkness to peer through the eyepiece at the wonders of the universe. Mars was just at opposition, so it is quite bright and close. A wispy veil of high altitude moisture above prevented resolution of the polar caps or any other surface detail for that matter. Thankfully, the moon was not present to add to the skyglow.

Using the computerized guiding system, I clicked the cursor on M42, the Orion Nebula, and then clicked the telescope icon to move the scope. Instantly, the 18″ Tinsley Cassegrain telescope began to slew to the proper point in space and the dome followed along. How it knows where to place the dome slit is beyond me, but it always works. 

There before our eyes was M42 with the trapezium blazing away in the middle of the milky nebula. Visitors always get a kick out of seeing it. Elsewhere on the celestial dome Uranus was obscured by clouds and Saturn was just below the horizon. Jupiter is currently behind the sun in its orbit and not visble.

I’m not an astronomer, nor do I consider myself even to be an amateur astronomer. I am a chemist trying to grasp the big picture- the whole enchilada across 25 or 30 orders of magnitude. Because people come to hear about astronomy I have to give star talks, not chemistry talks. But I do manage to work in some notions about matter that astronomers tend not to delve into.

Visitors can get a list of the usual factoids about astronomy from the web or in a book. I loathe having to give a brain-dump of encyclopedia facts. But, visitors do need a few details in order to get calibrated as to size and the distance to things in space.  I find that it is useful to spend a few minutes on the topic of asking questions. Especially if the visitors are a group of students.

Insights often depend greatly on the vocabulary with which the question was asked. Science is best at How questions rather than Why questions. It is a common linguistic error for people, kids in particular, to confuse why with how. We can readily explain How Annie dropped the ball. We can follow the thread of causality because the How question resolves to physics. Why she did it is a complex matter involving psychology and motivation. Why questions are more in the domain of the fine arts and theology. 

Someone once said “I can think to the extent I have language”. So often it has been the case that after considerable time in the lab, I am struck with a realization.  If only I had asked the right questions to begin with, I would have designed the best experiments earlier. I was unable to assemble the right questions even though the clues to the problem were before me.

An example of how vocabulary can affect your perception of a problem: Was matter really created or was it formed? I hear these words used inappropriately or interchangeably all of the time. I hold that the two words take careless thinkers down different pathways in the study of the origin of matter. In the contemporary context, the word “created” may infer supernatural intervention. The word “formed” is more generic and mechanical.  For scholars this may not be an issue, but certainly for the non-scientific folk who are also school board members, the difference between notions of created and formed could result in curricular changes.

I like to have visitors consider questions about the stuff the universe is made of. How much stuff is there in the universe? What is the stuff doing? How does the stuff come to be? And, oh yes, just what is the stuff, anyway? Arguably, this is what astronomy has been about all along. A proper evening at the observatory should cause people to leave with more questions than they came in with.

La Vie En Rose (in English)

There exists what must surely be a rare copy of Edith Piaf singing La Vie En Rose in English. The audio synch is off a bit, but it is worth hearing once to get a translation for we lazy mono-lingual types.  Th’ Gaussling has been a fan of Edith Piaf for a few years now.

The facile France-Bashing of a few years ago is tapering off. I’m convinced that most American men would be thrown into an existential crisis if they were to simply visit Paris and sit in a public space and do some girl-watching.

Okay bucko. Now tell me you don’t like France …

The Value Proposition

One of the most deleterious influences on the creative person is the naysayer. A person possessed by the need to be creative must eventually choose his/her companions wisely.  Naysayers are not usually bad people. They most often have your best interests at heart. But the impulse to give conservative counsel is irresistable by many well meaning folk.

For the creative person, the negative vibe is a type of noise that must be dealt with. In my own experience in business development, I have found that many people will choose risk avoidance as opposed to risk acceptance as the default condition. New ideas must be sold and every sale needs a value proposition.

Even sales people can participate in creative business.  Bringing in a new type of customer or entry to a new market segment can stimulate the creative juices at a company.  Business development people are by nature folk who are deeply tied into the technology capability at their company as well as the buzz in the market. Business development people often have two kids of sales activity- 1) sell the customer on capability, and 2) sell R&D and management on the new project with its long term possibilities. The customer may be the easiest sell of the two.

The customer must be able to take a value proposition back to management in order to make a reasoned buying decision. As a business development person, your job is to give an irresistable pitch to the prospective customer. Simultaneously, you have to pitch your own management as to the potential business the new project may bring.

It seems as though the impulse to say “No” when in doubt is hard wired into the brain. But it does serve a useful purpose by way of providing checks and balances to the decision to move forward.

Creative people are very interesting and very useful to have around. They can perform all sorts of technical services and can lead the charge to the next generation of products. But, they can lead the charge over a cliff as well. This is where skilled people management comes into play.  A good manager will ask for a value proposition for a new product, though it probably won’t be called that. They’ll ask for a business plan or a market survey or even an economic analysis. The idea is to put the onus of justification on the shoulders of those who propose to charge off into the battle.

The art of leading technical people is to herd them into the focal point of the value proposition. By combining a value-adding product to a pot of demand, you can produce a stream of profit.  Clever technical folk can invent new wonders all day every day. The trick is to lead them to do something that satisfies a current or a latent demand.

A good technology manager must manage the negative feedback, or naysayer input, that accompanies any group of people working on any project.  Most companies have talented but sour people who are good at finding fault or who practice negativism-by-wandering-around. Managers who can inspire loyalty to a project and to the company are called leaders. Sadly, in the real world, such people don’t always float to the top.  Often as not, project managers are ass-kickin’ SOB’s who made it to the top by merely surviving.

Winter Wonderland

Merry Christmas to all the good bloggenvolk out in the world! Thank you for the visits and the thoughtful comments- I appreciate all of them and do visit the linked sites.

As the sun sets in northern Colorado this Christmas eve, the back range of mountains are shrouded in the seasonal foehn wall of clouds with higher lenticular clouds scattered along the length of the Front Range. In some locations, stacks of lenticular clouds mark the spot where a standing wave of stratified zones of humid air mass is orographically lifted to form these curious formations. They resemble stacks of white flapjacks and can change their shape over a period of a few minutes.

On one memorable evening during cruise descent from altitude into Denver eastbound across the Rockies, we flew alongside a stack of salmon-orange hued lenticular clouds backlit from the setting sun. It was truly magical. Exiting the plane I mentioned this to the pilot and she nodded knowingly. At least a few of us were paying attention to the greatest show on earth.

In my mind’s eye, when I think of christmas the first image that appears is a field of Iowa cornstalks jutting out of drifted snow, ice crystals glinting from the surface crust in the low sun of winter. Indoors, my grandmother cooks lutefisk and scalloped potatoes while my grandfather taps out a polka on the piano. It is now a hundred years and a million miles distant. I miss those people.

Great Heaps of Crap

It seems that no matter where you go, where there is settlement- houses, businesses, etc.- there is “stuff”. By “stuff” I refer to manufactured goods. How much more stuff can we keep accumulating? How many more packages, widgets, gadgets, doo-dads, and bits & bobs can we continue to accumulate on the surface of our world? Lets dispense with the formalities and just call it what it is- crap.

Our factories are banging out container ships of crap as fast as they can manage.  Satellite repeaters overhead strain under the load of electronic transfer of funds across the world. The oceans are churned into a lather by container ships steaming across the ocean sea to deliver the containerized crap to anxious dock workers who off-load it as fast as possible. 

To see the extent of the madness, all you have to do is to browse in the Official Gazette of the patent office.  Clever citizens are inventing new kinds of crap to deal with the unexpected problems with the older crap. Our hardware stores are full of such inventions.

At home we tried to institute the Principle of Conservation of Crap wherein for every 100 lbs of crap we brought home, 100 lbs of crap had to go … elsewhere. It failed.  Johnnie on the Spot missed the bus.

Th’ Gaussling is lamenting the situation only because I am acutely afflicted with the accumulation of technical crap.  Decades of chemical journals, magazines, several metric tons of books, NMR spectra from grad school, and tons of files of photocopies representing whole forests felled for the satisfaction of my pathological need to accumulate information. The whole thing is twisted. Think of the forest creatures, man.

Yet, I can’t bring myself to pitch that folder of Grignard mechanism papers or back issues of J. Med. Chem.  Maybe there should be detox centers where information addicts can go to get their lives back. 

Fun at Chemical Trade Shows

One of the fun aspects of sales is doing booth duty at a trade show.  It is an opportunity to meet and greet lots of new folks and catch up with trade show buddies.  Watching an exhibition hall transform into a “show” is like magic.  When you show up with your booth at the hall the day before the show, the place is a wreck. Booths are under construction, carpet is going down, fork lifts are zooming all over the place, exhibitors are lined up at the show managers booth, bewildered sales people are trying to get their bearings, and haggard and cranky union workers are trying to get the whole illusion assembled by the approaching deadline.

Trade shows are venues where buyers meet sellers in bulk.  Buyers show up in droves to walk a few acres of floor space crammed with vendors showing their wares. Everyone is in full schmooze configuration. There is an abundance of literature and business bling. Most booths are 10′ x 10′ with rear curtains and some trade show furniture. Smaller companies bring booths that they assemble featuring a display frame, lights, and velcro panels. Larger companies pay to have the union guys assemble an expensive architectural wonder complete with meeting rooms and, in the EU, a bar with bartender.

Lots of wheeling and dealing gets done by those buyers that come to actually buy on the spot. A great many buyers are there to window shop and go back to the office to ruminate on their decision. 

What is less well known outside of this circle is that a good deal of competitive intelligence is being done as well.  Everyone wants to know who the competition is. Lots of browsing and innocent questions.  Competitor pricing is the magic that everyone wants.  But this information can be hard to get. In the specialty chemical world, prices are often given by quotation to qualified parties. Qualified in this context means that the query originates from a party who is actually in need of the material rather than the wiley competitor trying to get an edge in pricing.

Some trade show organizers will have a high paid speaker talk to the show attendees.  I was once on the “A-List” to get tickets to meet the speakers at a small social hour before the show.  I got to have an actual conversation with James Carville, Mary Matlin, Terry Bradshaw, and Robert Reich. It was very exciting and enlightening. 

Another side benefit of being in sales is the chance to dine in some excellent restaurants. When at a tade show, it is always best to get your reservations in early. All of the best seats in town get taken. 

At a trade show in Vegas a few years back, our hall was next to a room being used for auditions for some transvestite series for cable TV. I recall walking down the hall at the Sands past a long line of “ladies” waiting for their turn at audition.  They were dressed to kill. It’s Vegas, baby.  The details of some other events will stay with me to the grave.

A few years ago at a plastics show at the McCormick center in Chicago I counted 6 multilayer extrusion machines blowing film, multiple PET bottle machines running, and numerous die extrusion systems operating. People waited in line for an hour to get a free lawn chair.

Favorite destinations? Paris, London, New Orleans, San Francisco, Milano (beware pick pockets!), Basel, Seattle, Berlin, Bangkok, Las Vegas, San Diego, and Manchester.

In Manchester we had to walk the gauntlet past a mob of angry protestors in front of the trade show- they were pissed about animal testing done by one of the exhibitors. 

Berlin is a fascinating and cosmopolitan city and anyone who enjoys Europe should visit.