Gaussling’s (k + 1)th Epistle to the Bohemians. A Liberal Speaks.

Leave a reply

This is an updated re-release of an old post from Dec 10, 2010. I have applied a bit of polish and a spit shine, but not much. Since I wrote this, political correctness has morphed into wokeness.

==========

I keep hearing comments by conservative people who are obsessed by what they call political correctness. In these commentaries, some kind of sarcastic parody is made regarding an alleged trend to ban the use of the phrase “Merry Christmas”.  Neoconservatives latch onto this like barnacles on the bottom of a tramp steamer. Inside their heads they imagine that a cabal of liberals are scheming to take their guns and their religion from them.

At the most recent liberal cabal meeting, we decided to let the gun owners keep their damned guns. There was a vote, however, where a proposal was made to require gun owners to take turns cleaning up the blood and guts after a shooting and to pick up the funeral costs.

Ok, that was a joke. Actually, we voted on something else.

If other liberals are like me, then not only do we not want to deprive them of their damned firearms and religion, minimally we would simply like to be out of shooting range.

Christmas has a secular component and practice that even a bitter, crusty, non-religious liberal like myself can feel comfortable with. But as far as possible insensitivity to Christians, they’ll just have to get over it.

In my limited sphere I don’t know of a single liberal who is trying to replace “Merry Christmas” with “Happy Holidays”. The only time I hear of it is when a conservative repeats it sarcastically as a token of disapproval. Only conservatives carp about this.  It’s a red herring promulgated by that famous dead yapping cur himself, Rush whatshisname, in the name of ratings.

——————

I’m moved to comment on what makes some people liberal.  A recent article in Slate was written by a conservative, Daniel Sarewitz, who seems to be genuinely perplexed at the apparent trend of scientists, or at least academics in general, to be liberal. It is though he is talking about a smallpox epidemic.  While I have no idea as to the conservative/liberal ratio of scientists and academics, I can say that from my perch on a small and obscure branch of the tree of science, scientists tend to be overall a bit left leaning. However, make no mistake, there are plenty of conservatives in the group as well.

Indeed, many of the industrial chemists I am in contact with are libertarians, religious conservatives or just plain-vanilla orthodox conservatives. So, from my limited data set,  Sarewitz’s complaint appears a little specious to me.

He probably refers to the life and eco-sciences, earth science, astronomy, big-time-physics, etc. I suspect that the balance is different in these fields.

But why would scientists trend towards a liberal viewpoint?  I have some ideas. First, the scientific approach to the world relies on study, measurement and analysis.  Scientists tend to study analytically or, to use another term, critically. Critical study of the physical world requires a willing suspension of belief. A formal education in science takes the student through many, many opportunities to see how scientific knowledge was acquired by successive approximations and sometimes led into fruitless cul-de-sacs. A scientist must keep a loose grip on theoretical viewpoints because experimental results frequently contradict fundamental assumptions. Fame and glory in science goes to those who tip over the apple cart of concepts and theories.  All scientists are excited at the prospect of looking at something in a new way or bringing a puzzle into sharper focus.

“But, it’s just a theory …” I hear this ignorant comment frequently. A theory is just a model of a particular aspect of reality that is then strengthened or weakened by experiment. It is not uncommon for theories to be tossed aside in the junk pile when data or a better theory comes along. Science advances by successive approximation. One does not “believe in” a theory. It is not a “devotional” thing. You agree with it to some extent or you dispute its accuracy. It’s an “analytical” thing. A theory does not have to be completely accurate to be useful. Even a faulty theory may provide certain perspectives that are useful.

Many conservatives whom I know also appreciate study and measurement. Numbers people are greatly influenced by numerical data regardless of their political stripe. But in the religious realm there is often a trend towards devotional study rather than critical study. Devotional study is about finding a greater understanding of doctrine or greater fidelity with a catechism of beliefs.

Religionists upset with the notion of the separation of church and state often assert their right to be heard and to express their religiosity in public spaces.  Some might take this as a simple matter of freedom of speech. And if that is all the religionists want, that would be fine. But if you look closely, they don’t want just speech, often times they want government endorsement of their doctrine. They want equal time in the public schools. They want to bring the civil sphere into alignment with their beliefs. “Go ahead and teach Darwinian evolution, but Creationism should get equal time.” Creationism is just a Christian conservative flavor of denialism. It is the denial of evidence in favor of a magical world of spirits and things that cannot be physically evaluated.

Religious services are about the veneration of the sacred. The word “sacred” means that which is beyond question or understanding.  In a real sense, holding something sacred is to set apart a concept or doctrine from critical analysis. Religionists are not interested in a public critical analysis of their precepts. They are interested in broader devotional coverage, i.e., the fruits of evangelism.

It isn’t unusual for a liberal person to be compelled to do critical analysis of their basic beliefs over a lifetime.  The very notion of spiritual sacredness is antithetical to one who seeks analytical truth. The policy that some belief systems are beyond analysis is simply a form of thought control and is more suited to the iron age than the present. Being a nontheist I hold human life sacred. I’m very partial to kindness too. But this does not require that I believe in a supernatural universe.

For a great many people, college is a time and a place for intellectual experimentation and exploration. It is a place where you can have chance or purposeful encounters with new ideas, people and careers that were beyond your previous horizon. The university is an institution where critical analysis of the great world systems takes place. The active examination and betterment of our world is the realm enjoyed by the progressive.  Progressives push the boundaries of knowledge and thought. Sometimes focused analysis reflects well on our human or national institutions and sometimes it does not. But knowledge hidden is knowledge abused. That universities are loaded with liberals is a natural outcome of the youthful intellectual adventure the students are taking. It is a journey of discovery of the self and one’s place in it. It can be both joyous and a bit disappointing. New lands and new boundaries are there to be found.

The current efforts by American conservative Christian nationalists to scour out all traces of liberalism in education is worrisome and frankly, a little stupid. The assault on New College by the governor of Florida is a dark example of state government taking a giant step backwards by imposing one-sided political controls on a public resource. This in itself shows that American education has failed a great many people. America has generally failed in citizen’s knowledge and practice of civics and the long, troubled path of history to the present.

Just take a long look at the MAGA movement. Make America Great Again. When was this actually? If you look below the surface in any period of US history, you’ll find political problems and upheavals galore. There have always been social struggles in our history. Formerly venerated American Heros like Buffalo Bill Cody and the near extinction of the buffalo. General Custer and what he was really doing at the little Bighorn. Or the revered westward expansion with the Gold Rush and migration of the pioneers which were part of our celebrated manifest destiny. These were national enthusiasms that have been endlessly celebrated and woven into textbooks for generations of school kids.

The ugly truth to much of the actions of our ancestors is that a great many innocent people died as settlers began to occupy North America. Land was stolen, European diseases were spread, native Americans were murdered and robbed of their land and resources and their children were reprogrammed in government schools. Survivors were herded into reservations with little in the way of amenities or natural resources that we take for granted. Treaties were made and broken. This is also part of our history.

There is no benefit in self-flagellating ourselves over the sins of the past. However, what we need to do is to take note of the mistakes of the past and steer a better path to the future.

Do I believe that American conservative thinking and liberal thinking are equally right? Not at all. I’ll take progressive liberalism any day.

Global Oil Refining Capacity Growth to Taper Off Soon

Leave a reply

According to the International Energy Agency, IEA, the current wave of oil refining capacity growth is likely to be the last of it. IEA is forecasting that beyond 2030 global refining capacity growth will begin to recede. The latest World Outlook Report forecasts that global capacity will see 105.2 million b/d and by 2050 growth be tapering off to 105.8 million b/d. This is from 102.7 million b/d in 2022.

Remember, this is receding growth overall, not receding consumption overall. IEA expects North America to see reducing refinery capacity on the order of 1.4 % between 2022 and 2030. To meet emission reduction goals, North American capacity will have to reduce by 7.5 % from 2022 to 2030. By contrast, under current policies India is expected to see an increase in refining capacity from 7.2 to 7.5 milling b/d by 2050.

The Age of Petroleum is approaching a production plateau as the oxidation of hydrocarbons gives way to harnessing the reduction potential of metallic lithium. Oh, what a time we’ll have! Think of all of the new failure modes we’ll discover.

On top of all of the current challenges to fire departments, there is a new one. Source: Battery Fires.

Weed Decarboxylator from Amazon

1 Reply

So, I get an email from Amazon promoting its “Decarboxylator” product. The Amazon page shows a picture describing the device and shows a picture of someone loading it with spinach leaves. The title of the page says “Decarboxylator Machine to Make Butter, Oil, and More“. A link to ecru, the seller, extols the virtue of herb consumption for greater wellness. The device obviously is just a heated container with digital thermometer and temperature setpoint adjustment.

Source: Amazon.com. One version of the home decarboxylator.

Why bring this up? This was sent to me as an Amazon customer, but I also happen to be an organic chemist who knows about decarboxylation generally. Or, just maybe they know that already?? What on Earth is retail decarboxylation about I wondered. Well, a simple Google search immediately turns up the answer. Processing weed for use in edibles. The silly allusions to vegetable processing is just a ruse.

The decarboxylation of THCA-A to give THC. Graphics: Silly old me.

Apparently, there are two isomers of tetrahydrocannabinolic acid, THCA. They are THCA-A and THCA-B. THCA-A is present is large quantities in unprocessed marijuana. THCA-A is the direct precursor of THC in the plant. When you smoke weed or bake it into brownies the burning or baking process decarboxylates THCA-A giving the psychoactive product, THC. However, when you extract weed with a solvent without heating, the decarboxylation is very slow and affords reduced potency. Weed for edibles must be heat treated to induce decarboxylation for maximum potency. The Wikipedia page on tetrahydrocannabinolic acid is very informative. The THCA-A precursor has its own pharmacological effects which is interesting in itself, but that is for another day.

This handy-dandy whizbang device does the deed for home producers of edibles. Ain’t it grand?

The Illuminating History of Producing Brighter Flames

Leave a reply

This is a reprint of an October 25, 2010, piece that I wrote about illumination with flames. I did tweak the title a bit for the sake of accuracy. -Th’ Gaussling

Until the invention of the electric lamp, the illumination of living and working space was very much the result of sunlight or of combustion.  Since the development of fire making skills in prehistoric times, the combustion of plant matter, fossil fuels, or animal fat was the only source of lighting available to those who wanted to illuminate the dark spaces in their lives.

From ancient times people had to rely on flames to throw heat and an agreeable yellowish light over reasonable distances. A good deal of technology evolved here and there to optimally capture the heat of combustion to do useful work (stoves, furnaces, and boilers) from readily available fuels. 

Lighting technology also evolved to maximally produce illumination from flame.  High energy density fuels that offered a measure of convenience for lamp users evolved as well. Liquid fuels like vegetable oils, various nut oils, whale oil and kerosene could flow to the site of combustion and were in some measure controllable for variable output. The simple wick is just such a  “conveyance and metering device” for the control of a lamp flame. Liquid fuels flow along the length of a wick by capillary action to a combustion zone whose size was variable by simple manipulation of the exposed wick surface area.

The first reported claim of the destructive distillation of coal was in 1726 by Dr Stephen Hales in England. Hales records that a substantial quantity of “air” was obtained from the distillation of Newcastle coal. It is possible that condensable components were generated, but Hales did not make arrangements to collect them.  Sixty years earlier an account of a coal mine fire from flammable coal gases (firedamp) highlighted the dangerous association of coal with volatiles. So, flammable “air’ was associated with coal for some time.

By 1826 a few chemists and engineers were examining the use of combustable gases for illumination. The historical record reveals two types of flammable gas that were derived from coal- coal gas and water-gas. Both gases came from the heating of coal, but under different conditions. Coal gas was the result of high temperature treatment of coal in reducing conditions. It is a form of destructive distillation where available volatiles are released.  Depending on the temperature, there was the possibility of pyrolytic cracking of heavies to lights as well. 

Water-gas was the result of the contact of steam with red hot coal or coke. The water dissociates into H2 and CO. Water gas is a mixture of hydrogen and carbon monoxide, both of which are combustible. The formation of water-gas is reported to have been discovered by Felice Fontana in 1780. 

One of the properties of burning coal gas or water-gas was the notably meager output of light from the flame. Workers like Michael Faraday and others noted that these new coal derived gases provided feeble illumination, but if other carbonaceous materials could be entrained, then a brighter flame could result. It was during the course of investigations on illumination with carburized water-gas that Faraday discovered bicarburet of hydrogen, or benzene.

About this time, an engineer named Donovan also noted that if other carbonaceous materials were to be entrained into water-gas, then the light output was enhanced. So, in 1830, engineer Donovan installed a “carburetted” water-gas lighting system for a short run in Dublin.

Coal gas was first exploited for lighting by the Scottish engineer William Murdoch.  Murdoch began his experiments in 1792 while working for Watt and Boulton in England. By the late 1790’s, Murdoch was commercially producing coal gas lighting systems. His home was the first to be lit with coal gas.

The carburization of water gas eventually became an established industry in America in the second half of the 19th century. The treatment of gases, especially with the discovery of natural gas in Ohio, increased the commercial viability of lighting with gas. Carburization of water gas was aided by the discovery of hydrocarbon cracking to afford light components that could be used for this purpose.

Thorium is frequently found in the ores of rare earth elements (REE) and the connection of REE’s to the issue of illumination begins in the laboratories of Berzelius in about 1825. Berzelius had observed that when thoria and zirconia were heated in non-luminous flames, the metal oxides glowed intensely.  But this was not a new phenomenon. Substances like lime, magnesia, alumina, and zinc oxide were known to produce a similar effect. Goldsworthy Gurney had developed the mechanism of the Limelight a few years before. In the limelight, a hydrogen-oxygen flame played on a piece of lime (calcium oxide) to produce a brilliant white glow.  This effect was soon developed by Drummond to produce a working lamp for surveying.

The work of Berzelius was an important step in the development of enhanced flame illumination. He had extended the range of known incandescent oxides to include those that would eventually form the basis of the incandescent mantle industry.  Thoria (mp 3300 C) and zirconia (mp 2715 C) are refractory metal oxides that retain mechanical integrity at very high temperature. This is a key attribute for commercial feasibility.

Numerous forms of incandescent illumination enhancements were tried in the middle 19th century. Platinum wire had the property of glowing intensely in non-luminous flames. But platinum was not robust enough for extended use and was quite rare and consequently very expensive. By 1885, a PhD chemist named Carl Auer von Welsbach patented an incandescent mantle which was to take the gas light industry to a new level of performance. Welsbach studied under professor Robert Bunsen at the University of Heidelberg. 

Welsbach fashioned the incandescent mantle into the form that is familiar to anyone today who has used a Coleman lantern. The original mantle was comprised of a small cellulose nitrate bag that had been impregnated with magnesium oxide, lanthanum oxide, and yttrium oxide in the ratio of 60:20:20.  The mantle gave off a greenish light and was not very popular.

By 1890, Welsbach produced an improved incandescent mantle containing thoria and ceria in a ratio of 99:1. This mantle emitted a much whiter light and was very successful. Many combinations of zirconia, thoria, and REE metal oxides were tried owing to their refractory nature, but the combination of thoria-ceria at the ratio of 99:1 was enduring.

Welsbach made another contribution to the commercialization of REEs. Welsbach had experimented with mischmetal and was interested in its pyrophoric nature. He had determined that a mixture of mischmetal and iron, called ferrocerium, when struck or pulled across a rough surface, afforded sparks. In 1903 Welsbach patented what we now call the flint.  In 1907 he founded Treibacher Chemische Werke GesmbH. Today Treibacher is one of the leading REE suppliers in the world.

See the earlier post on REE’s.

REE’s in Greenland.

REE Bubble?

REE’s in Defense.

REE’s at Duke.

The Eclipse Viewed from Lagrange Point L1

Leave a reply

Here in Colorado, we were located north of the totality band in the partial annular eclipse region that swept across the US last week. I’ve seen annular eclipses previously so it was a been-there-done-that event for me. Below is a great photograph from NASA showing the eclipse from the DSCOVR (Deep Space Climate Observatory), a satellite jointly operated by USAF, NASA and NOAA. This satellite is in a non-repeating Lissajous orbit at the Lagrange point L1 about 1.6 million kilometers from Earth. It has also been called a looping halo orbit. At this location, it has a perpetual fully illuminated view of the Earth which rotates below it. The exception would be when the moon is in this part of its orbit.

The probe carries numerous sensors to allow measurements of the earth and space environments.

Source: NASA October 14, 2023 Annular eclipse. It is the dark spot on North America.

The band of totality stretched across the southwestern states October 14, 2023.

Source: NASA. Path of the annular eclipse totality.

Lagrange points arise from two large masses in gravitational proximity, in this case the sun and the Earth. Relative to the two large masses the 5 Lagrange points allow for stable “parking orbits” for small objects like a satellite. Objects are placed in orbit around the Lagrange points to remain roughly stationary in relation to the Earth-Sun system.

Source: NASA. Lagrange Points.
Source: Jordi Carlos, García García, Universitat Politecnica Catalunya, 2009. A three-dimensional view of the simulated Lissajous-type orbit of the Gaia probe about L2.

According to Wikipedia, a Lissajous orbit differs from a halo orbit in that it is quasi-periodic and dynamically unstable, needing occasional station-keeping actions by the probe. A halo orbit about a Lagrange point is described as a periodic, 3-dimensional orbit.

The history of the probe is a bit odd.  It was launched by SpaceX on a Falcon 9 v1.1 launch vehicle on 11 February 2015, from Cape Canaveral. DSCOVR, initially called Triana after Rodrigo de Triana, the first European explorer to see the Americas. The mission began as a proposal by Vice President Al Gore in 1998 as a whole earth observatory at the L1 point. The probe’s mission was put on hold by the Bush Administration in January 2001 and officially terminated by NASA in 2005. The probe was placed in nitrogen blanketed storage until it was again funded, then removed and tested for viability in November 2008. The Obama Administration funded it for refurbishment in 2009 and the mission was fully funded by 2012. The Air Force allocated funds in 2012 for its launch and awarded SpaceX the contract. On February 11, 2015, the probe was finally launched from Cape Canaveral, FL. Management of DSCOVR is provided by NASA’s Goddard Spaceflight Center.

The NISTAR instrument on board the DSCOVR probe was provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology, NIST. NISTAR is a 4-band cavity radiometer and is located as shown below in orange. It measures reflected and emitted light in the infrared, visible and ultraviolet parts of the spectrum. The instrument is able to separate reflected light from Earth’s radiant emissions.

Source: Wikipedia. The DSCOVR probe.
Source: NASA, Steve Lorentz, Allan Smith, Yinan Yu, L1 Standards and Technology, Inc. Graph showing the parts of the spectrum where reflected and emitted radiation from Earth is to be found.

The Faraday Cup (FC) is a sensor that collects and quantifies the flux of positively charged particles in the solar wind, i.e., protons and helium nuclei. Variations in the solar wind speed are observed. In the course of operation they discovered that the solar wind is “colder” than was previously thought in terms of what is referred to as “thermal speed.” The researchers presented thermal speed numbers on the order of 300 to 500 km/sec.

Source: NASA. The faraday cup on board DSCOVR.
Source: NASA. The imaging camera- Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC). Sorry about the tiny print size.

Schematic of optical system of EPIC.

Source: Alexander Cede1,2,3*, Liang Kang Huang2,4, Gavin McCauley1, Jay Herman2,5, Karin Blank2, Matthew Kowalewski2, Alexander Marshak2, Front. Remote Sens., 09 July 2021, Sec. Satellite Missions, Volume 2 – 2021 | https://doi.org/10.3389/frsen.2021.702275. Copyright © 2021 Cede, Kang Huang, McCauley, Herman, Blank, Kowalewski and Marshak. The optics of the EPIC camera are that of a Cassegrainian style telescope.
  • 1SciGlob Instruments & Services LLC, Elkridge, MD, United States
  • 2Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA, Greenbelt, MD, United States
  • 3LuftBlick, Innsbruck, Austria
  • 4Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States
  • 5Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology, Baltimore, MD, United States

The probe has a 420 kg dry mass and its solar panels provided an initial 600 watts at 28 volts. The probe attitude and translational motion is managed with a set of 4 reaction wheels and 10 hydrazine thrusters. The hydrazine, N2H4, monopropellant is decomposed over a bed of catalyst prior to ejection. This decomposition yields hot N2, H2 and NH3 gases.

Like many satellites, DSCOVR uses reaction wheels for attitude control. Of the 4 reaction wheels, 3 are for axis-control and the 4th is used as a spare. Each wheel is driven by an electric motor. When the angular velocity of a single reaction wheel changes, there is a proportional counter rotation, resulting in a change in attitude about that 1 axis. Since the wheel velocity can be precisely controlled by the electric motor, fine adjustments in attitude can be attained.

Cells Count on Earth

Leave a reply

Wow. A study was published calculating the number of living cells currently present on Earth and the number that have ever lived. The paper, titled “The geologic history of primary productivity,” was published in Current Biology, October 11, 2023. Sadly, the full article rests behind a paywall. But the abstract is open access so I will reproduce it here.

The lead author, Peter Crockford, is a geologist at Carleton University.

Abstract: The rate of primary productivity is a keystone variable in driving biogeochemical cycles today and has been throughout Earth’s past. 1 For example, it plays a critical role in determining nutrient stoichiometry in the oceans,2 the amount of global biomass,3 and the composition of Earth’s atmosphere.4 Modern estimates suggest that terrestrial and marine realms contribute near-equal amounts to global gross primary productivity (GPP).5 However, this productivity balance has shifted significantly in both recent times 6 and through deep time.7 ,8 Combining the marine and terrestrial components, modern GPP fixes ≈250 billion tonnes of carbon per year (Gt C year−1).5 ,9 ,10 ,11 A grand challenge in the study of the history of life on Earth has been to constrain the trajectory that connects present-day productivity to the origin of life. Here, we address this gap by piecing together estimates of primary productivity from the origin of life to the present day. We estimate that ∼1011–1012 Gt C has cumulatively been fixed through GPP (≈100 times greater than Earth’s entire carbon stock). We further estimate that 1039–1040 cells have occupied the Earth to date, that more autotrophs than heterotrophs have ever existed, and that cyanobacteria likely account for a larger proportion than any other group in terms of the number of cells. We discuss implications for evolutionary trajectories and highlight the early Proterozoic, which encompasses the Great Oxidation Event (GOE), as the time where most uncertainty exists regarding the quantitative census presented here.

Source: Peter W. Crockford 6, 7 , Yinon M. Bar On, Luce M. Ward, Ron Milo, Itay Halevy, Current Biology, October 11, 2023, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2023.09.040.

An article by Elizabeth Pennisi was published in Science which is a decent summary of the paper. The Science review reports that the number of cells alive today amounts to 1030 cells with most of them cyanobacteria. The total number of cells to ever have lived is estimated to be between 1039 and 1040. The article goes further and says that the resources on Earth cannot support more than 1041 cells.

Plumbing the Depths Just a Bit on the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict

Leave a reply

I do understand that speaking as a non-religious foreigner about the Israeli/Palestinian conflict is prone to misinterpretation and loaded with obstacles of history, sociology and religion. The whole topic is drenched in ethnic tropes and half-truths overprinted on reality. The US, UK, Europe and others have not exactly been the best friend of the people of the Middle East. Wariness is warranted. I get that. But we outsiders should try to understand the fundamentals of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict as objectively as possible. Choosing a side to support may be required, but at least it should be tempered with objective facts to the extent that it is possible.

Hamas is an acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement, or (حركة المقاومة الإسلامية Ḥarakah al-Muqāwamah al-ʾIslāmiyyah) according to Wikipedia. It is a Sunni Islamist military and political movement which took control of Gaza in 2007. Hamas has never recognized the Israel–PLO Letters of Mutual Recognition or the Oslo Accords.

The Hamas Charter of 1988 set forth the beliefs and ideals of the Arab Palestinian organization. Many agree that the document was a bit harsh in places, namely outright calling for the destruction of Israel. The 2017 revision of the Hamas Charter supposedly tones down some of the sharp edges of the 1988 version.

The purpose and goals of Hamas rest firmly on Islam. Palestine and Islam are inseparable. They want it known that to conflict with Palestine is to conflict with Islam. From the 1988 Charter-

Article 3: The basic structure of the Islamic Resistance Movement consists of Moslems who have given their allegiance to Allah whom they truly worship, – “I have created the jinn and humans only for the purpose of worshipping” – who know their duty towards themselves, their families and country. In all that, they fear Allah and raise the banner of Jihad in the face of the oppressors, so that they would rid the land and the people of their uncleanliness, vileness and evils. “But we will oppose truth to vanity, and it shall confound the same; and behold, it shall vanish away.” (Prophets – verse 18).

Source: The Avalon Project, Yale Law School

The more recent charter seeks to discern their view of the difference between Zionism and Judaism. It makes a point of stating their tolerance of other religions, as long as Islam reigns supreme. Article 16 of the 2017 Charter states-

  1. Hamas affirms that its conflict is with the Zionist project not with the Jews because of their religion. Hamas does not wage a struggle against the Jews because they are Jewish but wages a struggle against the Zionists who occupy Palestine. Yet, it is the Zionists who constantly identify Judaism and the Jews with their own colonial project and illegal entity.

Source: Hamas Media Office.

On occasion you’ll hear a few interview guests in media say that Gaza is the world’s largest “open-air prison.” Or that Israel is operating an “apartheid” system. Ok, fine. That’s a spiraling haggle I’ll stay away from. But the question remains, how is the world to think about over 2 million Palestinians confined to a small area surrounded by walls, the sea and military coverage? Obviously, Israel has the right to defend itself against terrorism or civil unrest, but the Palestinians also have a right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Holding the conflict in place are the deep roots of incompatible cultures and years of war.

In a way, the Hamas attack on Israel resembles a prison riot. A population of ethnically united people who long ago exhausted their patience with tight confinement and no discernable future have staged yet another uprising. Like the old nuclear war metaphor, the opposing parties are standing in gasoline, each holding a match. Alert as the Israelis are, they missed signs of threat. The staging and execution of the Hamas attack was an actual surprise.

Retired General David Petraeus made some important observations on the situation. Paraphrasing, he said that even though the IDF is assured of retaking Gaza, they will then be faced with the dilemma of what to do next. The collapse of Hamas will only leave a power vacuum. Hamas will have conducted a mass-martyring taking the lives of Hamas fighters and thousands of Gazans. The dead will be strewn about in the crumbling remains of homes and businesses and the shattered economy of Gazan Palestinians.

Petraeus pointed out that the US has made many serious mistakes in that part of the world starting after 9/11. He said it’s time for all of us take lessons from this experience going forward.

Hamas is in a constant state of Jihad and are supported by those sharing the dream of an Islamic caliphate. Israel has built a homeland and has no intention of yielding territory. It doesn’t look like there is a possible win-win situation for peace between the current players. The trick for the world is to prevent a wider conflict from igniting.

Yet Another War

Leave a reply

The war between Hamas and Israel is in its 4th day. On Saturday, October 7, 2032, Hamas launched a highly organized commando and rocket attack into Israel from Gaza. Many in Israel have called it their 9/11. Accounts vary at present, but about 3000 rockets were launched into Israel in salvos around dawn resulting in the death of many noncombatants in Israel. This triggered Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system knocking down many of the incoming rockets.

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is longstanding and packed with history and nuance well beyond my understanding. One question can be asked, however, and that is- did Hamas not know that they will lose and set back any semblance of peace for a very long time? The IDF has the capacity to fight and win a much bigger war than this. In response to the attack by Hamas, much of Gaza will be pummeled to dust and noncombatants will suffer and die. The only question is, what cue will the Israelis need to stop the attack? When you are acting in revenge, how do you know when to stop?

Whatever passes for leadership in Gaza, Hamas I assume, must have known the inevitable outcome of this attack early on. That would make this desperate action a kind of martyrdom. Martyrdom is meant to rally support for a cause. Could part of it be the recent easing of tensions between Israel and some states on the Saudi peninsula? This would not be in Hamas’ interest. Just a guess.

The participation of the Iranians, if any, may be a part of this. Their leadership is rabidly anti-Zionist and very cunning.

In any case, I suppose the thinking was if you are going to martyr, do it big. Global attention would be the goal and they got it.

Those Wacky Republicans!

Leave a reply

Yet again, very serious and doctrinaire House Republicans apply their skills in the art of clusterf**kery. The act of legislating and otherwise steering the big federal boat is secondary to their acquisition of power. A core of ultraorthodox conservatives called the Freedom Caucus is tangled in an internecine battle for control and don’t seem to care much about collateral damage. The roots of this group go back to the delightful Tea Party in 2015.

What the Freedom Caucus may be doing is laying the groundwork for Project 2025: Presidential Transition Project. This plan, organized by The Heritage Foundation, seeks to deconstruct or reorganize the administrative branch of the federal government and populate it with vetted, politically reliable staff. Winning seats in Congress or the Whitehouse is now deemed insufficient.

House Republicans leading the way.

This plan from The Heritage Foundation is the result of a very extensive collaboration of groups from all over the right-wing. I don’t think that anyone will deny that the federal bureaucracy is too big and too slow. But what Project 2025 plans to do is to apply a conservative foundation of politically reliable personnel. There would be a political test to pass prior to getting a government job. The effect will be to polarize the government in a way that would be quite difficult to change. They want a Republican America set in stone and they plan on starting the first day of the next Republican administration. We know this because they have written a book on how they plan to do it.

“The project is the effort of a broad coalition of conservative organizations that have come together to ensure a successful administration begins in January 2025. With the right conservative policy recommendations and properly vetted and trained personnel to implement them, we will take back our government.”

Source: The Heritage Foundation.

Meanwhile, Emperor Trumpus Maximus continues to blunder forward with promises of MAGA, all the while trampling over the garden of civilization. It’s like watching Godzilla destroying 1950’s Tokyo while a jabbering and ineffectual media makes sure to capture and replay every delicious morsel of bad adult behavior.

As always, Trump continues to rack up hours of free TV coverage. They call it news, but it’s really a nonstop freak show. The headliner, DJT, is a genius at attracting big-media coverage. Trump’s legacy is now totally out of his control. He has fumbled his business empire to the edge of extinction and his political career is disintegrating. What a dangerous idiot.

The Russians are gleefully watching our Republican House of Representatives implosion. It validates Putin’s (and China’s) claim that the US is a declining empire in moral disarray and that democracy can’t be made to work. The upcoming 2024 elections offer the hope of declining US and NATO backing of Ukraine. All Putin has to do is outlive Ukraine’s ability to wage war.

Low Water Slows Traffic Through the Panama Canal

Leave a reply

The US Energy Information Agency, EIA, released a notice about low water levels from a historic drought in the Panama Canal region is slowing the passage of large ships. In particular, the Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) vessels are restricted which affects the transport and price of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG). According to the Panama Canal Authority (APC), water levels in the canal are at their lowest levels since 1995 and are expected to stay low if the drought is prolonged.

The core of the problem is low water levels at Gatun Lake. This lake is a key part of the system. It is an artificial reservoir that sits between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans providing water and power for the lock system. Due to a prolonged dry season and below normal precipitation, the APC has enacted water saving regulations.

Source: Charts from EIA

The largest fraction of US-provided hydrocarbons carried through the canal by VLGC vessels is propane which is used for petrochemical applications and highly seasonal heating demand. Increased demand for US propane in East Asia has put pressure on the canal due to increased vessel demand.

The canal has two types of locks- Panamax and Neopanamax. Ships are rated according to their size and draft as seen in the EIA graphic below.

Source: Graphic from EIA.

The base cost of transit for Panamax VLGC vessels is $300,000. A smaller gas or chemical carrier using the Panamax locks has a base cost of $60.000. The low water problem has restricted the flow of traffic through the canal to just 32 transits per day- 10 for the Neopanamax and 22 for the Panamax. Other routes to Asia are around the Cape of Good Hope or through the Suez Canal.

Source: Graphic from EIA.

Due to low water, restrictions have led to a waiting time of 13 to 17 days to transit the canal during August. According to Reuters 8/22/23, 125 booked and non-booked vessels were waiting to pass. As of this date, restrictions allow vessels with a maximum 44 foot draft. According to EIA a 6 foot decrease in draft can lead to a 40 % reduction in cargo.