I subscribe to “Your Local Epidemiologist” by email. It’s written by a PhD epidemiologist on her substack and is quite informative. Below are some excerpts on people doing their own research-

“The beginner’s bubble. In early stages of learning, confidence tends to increase faster than skill, meaning people often overestimate their accuracy when they are first learning something new.

The quest to “do it all on your own” can backfire. “Epistemic superheroes” want to figure out everything on their own and distrust other people’s information. But their task is impossible—nature is too complex for us to solve by ourselves. When the “trust no one” mantra inevitably leads to “I must decide who to trust,” it is easy to gravitate towards other like-minded skeptics. This creates a highly biased information bubble, the exact opposite of the original goal.

Assuming “unbiased” knowledge will contradict consensus. For many, doing their own research began with doubting the consensus view. Challenging consensus is healthy when new data emerges, but assuming “real” truth always opposes the consensus creates bias, undermining the search for unbiased answers.

Study comparing confidence vs accuracy of a beginner learning a new diagnostic task, revealing confidence in diagnostic ability rose faster than diagnostic accuracy. Sanchez et al. Journal of Personality and Psychology, 2018.“

Hmmm. Confidence rising faster than accuracy. How interesting.

Kristen Panthagani, MD, PhD is an emergency medicine physician completing a combined residency and research fellowship focusing on health literacy and communication. She is the creator of the newsletter You Can Know Things and author of YLE’s section on Health (Mis)communication. Views expressed belong to KP, not her employer.