Tag Archives: Ukraine War

Russian Death-Tanks

Numerous YouTube videos depict the widespread destruction of Russian tanks in the invasion of Ukraine, giving the impression that these tanks are more lethal to Russian soldiers than their opponents. Despite being equipped with Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA), their ability to withstand artillery, mines, and drone attacks seems minimal. Moreover, when the armor is breached, the cannon gun propellant tends to ignite violently, causing the warheads to explode and instantly killing the crew. Occasionally, the force of ammunition blasts is so strong that it hurls the turret with gun barrel into the air, a stark illustration of the power of such explosions. Consequently, videos frequently capture Russian tank crews abandoning their crippled vehicles and fleeing for safety. Instead of offering protection, tanks have become conspicuous and cumbersome targets, prone to devastating attacks.

One might question the practical value of reactive armor. The landscapes of eastern Ukraine are strewn with thousands of destroyed Russian tanks, their ERA blocks still intact. Perhaps its practical value lies in bolstering the confidence of tank crews to engage in battle, trusting in the ERA’s protective capabilities. However, it is now challenging to believe that ERA instills a sense of safety in tank crew members. The effectiveness of reactive armor seems negated by potent penetrator warhead countermeasures capable of breaching the ERA. The pertinent question remains: does the ERA diminish the impact of an incoming shell sufficiently to be considered effective?

The conflict between Putin and Ukraine will eventually conclude, and the victors will promptly seek to repurpose the battlefields for peacetime activities. However, they must first contend with numerous challenges, including the presence of unexploded ordnance. Thousands of mines may remain hidden, posing a threat for decades unless they are securely disposed of or neutralized.

The landscape of the battle zones is marred by bomb craters, charred vehicles—many with unexploded ammunition—minefields, unexploded ordnance scattered about, live explosive reactive armor on destroyed armored vehicles, and soil polluted with shrapnel and residues from countless detonated artillery shells.

Numerous cities and villages, particularly those near the Russian border, have been completely obliterated by Putin’s military, resulting in tens of thousands of civilian casualties and leaving most without homes. The remnants of homes, businesses, and infrastructure stand as a testament to the survivors. For them, social and economic frameworks are now just distant memories. Civilization has been set back by at least a generation due to Putin’s distorted ambitions for an imperial legacy. The man is not insane or unintelligent; he is quite astute and fully aware of his actions—he is simply a terrible person. Currently, the US is facing its own challenge with a figure of ill repute seeking control of the government, backed by a significant number of misguided followers.

The conflict has been a catastrophic event for the region’s flora and fauna, significantly hindering the biosphere in numerous areas. Ukraine, until recently, was a significant grain producer and exporter, essential for the sustenance of millions. In the early stages of the conflict, Russia targeted and destroyed much of Ukraine’s grain distribution infrastructure, aiming to debilitate the economy and hasten a surrender. The bombings of civilian residences, hospitals, and other infrastructures will tarnish Putin’s reputation, marking him as a tyrant and a fundamentally flawed individual. Additionally, the reported abduction of thousands of Ukrainian children by Russia for forced assimilation and adoption raises serious legal and humanitarian questions. These actions are meticulously recorded for potential future war crimes proceedings and historical record.

China Swoops In As Peacemaker

The Chinese leader Xi Jinping has arrived in Russia to meet with Putin. Ostensibly, this is part of a Chinese effort to lend support to Putin and urge a peaceful settlement with Ukraine. Putin and his propaganda machine have painted themselves into a corner with his dirty little war. Putin either needs to make some decisive victories or find an “honorable” off-ramp to declare victory.

Here is the obligatory quote from the Art of War by Sun Tzu: “When you surround an army, leave an outlet free”. In this case, Putin should be allowed to retreat to save face and lives. The Soviets got bogged down in Afghanistan and eventually left, but only after 10 difficult years. It is hard to imagine Putin backing out after only a year or two in Ukraine. To be fair, Putin has offered to withdraw his troops if certain conditions are met. Zelenski has declined Putin’s offer of what amounts to a sh*t sandwich.

The combination of the Russian military’s well documented and poor performance, Putin’s strategic blunder and subsequent economic hardships brought upon Russia would be difficult, but not impossible, to cover up. And, it contrasts strongly with his caricature as a hyper-masculine tough guy. However, the Russian propaganda machine is talented, well-oiled and enthusiastic.

China is obviously seeking to replace US hegemony with their own hegemony across the world. China has been grooming Africa using economic and infrastructure aid. This provides access to minerals and sites to occupy in a conflict. China is able to plan over the long term and a role as peacemaker in the Putin-Ukraine war can only help the cause of international influence. Contrast that with our (the US) role as international policeman. We’ve left a good deal of devastation around the world since WWII in the name of freedom, but we’ve done much good as well. Unfortunately, bad news seems to have a longer shelf life than good.

For China, part of the calculation in determining Russian military aid is the economic effect of entering into a proxy war against one of its main customers, the US. Supplying arms to Russia will be noticed rapidly on the battlefield. This could have an escalating effect on the level of aid supplied by the NATO states. I suspect that China already sees itself in an existential struggle with the US so maybe the decision to supply military aid will be easier. Military aid could be in the form of munitions, armored vehicles, guns of all sorts or just aid in intelligence gathering.

The shooting wars in Korea and Viet Nam as well as the NATO/USSR Cold War were waged by the US side because of something known as the “Domino Theory“. In short, western nations observed expansionism by the two principle communist states- the USSR and China. This expansionism was in the form of client states adopting communist governance shaped like China or the USSR. Western distrust of the USSR after WWII festered into serious paranoia within the US, giving way to a policy of intervention to prevent the expansion of the communist sphere.

All of this coincided with the development of efficient nuclear weapons and delivery vehicles like land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles and long-range bombers- our Nuclear Triad. Both Russia and China have their nuclear triads. It turns out that inventing a nuclear weapon was much more difficult and expensive than reverse engineering them. Also, the abundance of uranium deposits around the world is greater than many considered.

Either China sees Russia as a like-minded strategic partner or it is worried about what it might become if Putin is overthrown. Maybe both.

Interview of Timothy Snyder on the Putin-Ukraine War

An interview with the historian Timothy Snyder has appeared in the March 9th, 2023, internet issue of Der Spiegel International. The interview was conducted By Ann-Dorit Boy und Eva-Maria Schnurr. Snyder has very strong Euorpean history credentials with a Ph.D. in History from the University of Oxford. He is presently the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University and a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna.

Photo from Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_D._Snyder

The interview starts with an important question for Germany-

As Germans accept the debate on Putin’s terms, they can miss the obvious point: If we care about the comparison, we have to note right away that it is Putin’s Russia that is behaving more like Germany in 1941: Moscow, like Berlin then, claims that a neighboring people and state do not exist; Moscow, like Berlin then, is fighting a war of aggression; Moscow, like Berlin then, is carrying out eugenic, deportation, and mass killing policies. If Russia is behaving as the Germans did in 1941, then the Germans now have a second chance to respond to fascism. Will they take that second chance?

Snyder makes the point that German reticence to aid Ukraine in the war is what Putin wants.

In Russia, his [Putin’s] intention is to build a cult of innocence: No matter what we do, it must be justified, because we are always the righteous victim. Of course, this contradicts the actual history of the Second World War, in which Stalin chose to ally with Hitler, and in which Ukrainians actually suffered more than Russians, by any measure. Putin is also seeking to exploit the historical memory of Germans. He wants to trigger the German reflex that Russians must be victims and Germans must be aggressors.

I will end here because the article needs no explanation from me. It’s worth the read.