Tag Archives: Ukraine

The Dirty Bomb Threat

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Russia sent a letter to the United Nations accusing Ukraine of preparing to use a ‘dirty bomb’ in their battle with Russia. Western countries have claimed that this is nothing but a transparent attempt by Russia to provide a pretext for their own use of a dirty bomb or some other offensive action.

This issue resembles the matter of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) that the Bush administration in the US contrived as a pretext for taking down Saddam Hussein. A great many innocent people died and we damaged our moral authority in the world by that and other wars. It was an obvious lie to a great many Americans and allies yet the Bush administration went forward with the invasion. No WMDs were found.

According to Wikipedia, a dirty bomb is a conventional explosive packed with radioactive material that, on detonation, disperses the dangerous material in the target area. Such a thing could be made portable or assembled on site. It is not to be confused with a nuclear bomb. A dirty bomb blast would be a radiological calamity wherever it is set off as well as downwind of the explosion. Being non-nuclear, dispersion by a conventional explosive would be extremely limited in range in terms of blast effects, but intensely radioactive. As with any sudden generation of dust and smoke, there would be a plume of radioactive material (RAM) extending downwind from the release. Water soluble radioactive materials would pollute the watershed and possibly groundwater. Contaminated soil would exclude the area from farming for many decades if not longer. Great harm would befall the biosphere.

Construction of a dirty bomb could be quite problematic for its builders. Assuming the builders of the bomb are not suicidal, collecting RAM, assembling and delivering the bomb could be tricky. On one end of the scale, spent nuclear fuel could be used as the source of RAM. Assembly could be as simple as packing explosives around a container of RAM. To prevent serious exposure to the workers, there would have to be some kind of shielding present during the handling of the RAM. On the lower end, a small RAM source from a medical device could be used. Whatever the case, the containment must be fragile enough to rupture in the explosion but dense enough to provide some level of shielding for the handlers.

The harmful effects of a dirty bomb would be both radiological and psychological. On the psychological end, it is sure to cause dread fear in the general population and sway public sentiment toward one side or the other. Importantly, its use would be releasing the nuclear weapons genie from its bottle. It would lower the threshold and allow war planners everywhere to reconsider their own use of nuclear strategy and tactics because a precedent has been set. Once the genie is out, there is no putting it back, or so the saying goes.

In all of the war gaming and planning NATO has done over the decades, I wonder how much attention has been given to responding to nuclear conflict between non-NATO states? What should the NATO countries do if other actors engage in nuclear conflict? As always, it depends on the circumstances.

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I have chosen to avoid using the term “explosive device” because I feel it has a certain sanitizing effect. A thing that is meant to cause death and destruction by the explosive release of energy is just a f*cking bomb with all of the meaning and negative connotation associated with the word. Even grudging admiration for someone’s cleverness should not be awarded for putting together a “device.”

On the Russian Occupation of the Zaporizhia Power Plant

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In an escalation of his bloody war, the mass murderer Vladimir Putin allowed his troops to occupy the large Zaporizhia 6-reactor nuclear power plant along the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine in March of 2022. In doing so he brought the front line to a uniquely dangerous location. The world has expressed its concern and outrage, but characteristically, Putin is unmoved.

According to one source, El Pais, “On July 20, the Ukrainians launched a kamikaze drone against Russian units positioned near the nuclear power plant. The DiXi Group, a Kyiv think tank focused on the Ukrainian energy sector, confirmed the “precision [drone] attack.” According to Energoatom, the Ukrainian state-owned company that still manages the Zaporizhzhia plant, the Russians countered by storing “14 pieces of heavy weaponry, ammunition, and explosives,” inside the turbine room of one of the reactors.”

By way of background, the nuclear reactors at Zaporizhia are of the VVER variety and are water-cooled, water-moderated pressurized water reactors. They are not of the same design as the Chernobyl reactors. Chernobyl had RMBK-1000 graphite moderated reactors.

On Thursday, 8/25/22, a fire at a nearby non-nuclear plant shut down external power to Zaporizhia plant. Previously, three other power lines had been shut down. It may seem odd, but a nuclear power plant needs an outside feed of electrical power to assure that the coolant pumps to remain in operation. As a last layer of protection, the cooling pumps can be powered by diesel generators on site while the outside power is restored. The nuclear disaster at Fukushima, Japan, in 2011 is an example of what happens when a nuclear power plant loses it’s cooling pumps.

Reportedly, power was restored to the plant later that day. Whether or not the fire and the power trip was war-related or not is unclear.

There should be no mistake in realizing that the terroristic Putin knows precisely what he is doing and will wring out from the occupation of the plant his greatest advantage. He advances his pawns by relying on international dread fear of a large scale radiation release- a truly frightening prospect.

In Update 88, the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, listed the pillars of indispensable nuclear safety and security-

  • Pillar 1 (Physical integrity): Any military activity – such as shelling – within, or in the vicinity of, a nuclear facility has the potential to cause an Unacceptable Radiological Consequence.
  • Pillar 2 (All safety and security systems and equipment must be functional at all times): As a result of the shelling, emergency protection was activated at one of the  units, diesel generators were set in operation, and the nitrogen-oxygen station and an auxiliary building were damaged.
  • Pillar 3 (Operating Staff): This recent activity further increases the stress of the operational team.
  • Pillar 4 (Power supply): This has been compromised as a result of damage to the external power supply system.
  • Pillar 6 (Radiation monitoring and Emergency Preparedness and Response arrangements): In the current status of the site, this recent shelling further jeopardizes the already compromised EPR arrangements and capabilities to respond. However, the radiation monitoring system is still operational.

At some point in the future, the Putin war will be over. How it ends will largely be up to Putin or whoever surfaces after him. Eventually the Russian people, absent the malignant and unredeemable Putin, will have to be invited back as friends and neighbors onto the international stage as citizens of the civilized world. I hope that the strategic planners everywhere are thinking about this.

Kissinger: Status Quo Ante for Ukraine

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Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, aged 99, has released a new book recently titled “Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy” and as a result has been on the interview circuit. A review of his life can be found on Wikipedia. An interesting interview was reported on Spiegel International recently. I was alive when Kissinger was doing shuttle diplomacy in Viet Nam and when he and Nixon went to China for the summit with Zhou Enlai and Mao Zedong in 1972. Nixon’s trip to China was a very big event then.

Right at the start of the interview, Spiegel asked Kissinger about a comment he is alleged to have said at the recent Davos conference. Kissinger was quick to correct the report.

Der Spiegel: “… Is this what you had in mind with your recent statement at the World Economic Forum in Davos, when you suggested that Ukraine accept a temporary division of the country, developing one part into a pro-Western, democratic and economically strong nation while waiting for history to reunite the country as a whole?”

Kissinger: “What I said is this: To end this war, the best dividing line would be the status quo ante, which means 93 percent of the country. That’s quite a different thing. If one identifies the status quo ante as the objective, that would mean that aggression has not succeeded. The issue, then, is a ceasefire along the February 24 line of contact. The territory still controlled by Russia, which makes up about 2.5 percent of Ukrainian territory in the Donbas as well as the Crimean Peninsula, would then be part of a general negotiation.”

Kissinger goes on the comment on China and Taiwan. He suggests that while the US is involved with Russian aggression indirectly, a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be full scale and put the US and China in direct conflict.

Kissinger believes in the support given to Ukraine by NATO to defeat Russian aggression. He goes on to emphasize that Europe needs to find a working relationship with Russia irrespective of the outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He says-

 “… the relationship of Russia to Europe needs to be addressed, namely the question as to whether it is a part of European history, or a permanent opponent based on other territories. That will become a main issue. And it is one that is independent of the conclusion of the war in Ukraine …”.

This kind of strategic thinking is in the realm of statesmanship.

Russian World

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An interesting question and answer piece has come out signed by Mykhailo Zahorodnii, Ukrainska Pravda. Zhyttia, titled (by Yahoo) “The atrocities committed by the Russians are their reaction to the fact they are nobody in their own country“. It is not a dispassionate bit of analysis by a senior historian, but rather by an experienced reporter from Ukraine. Yes, it is anti-Russian. It does not attempt to convey sympathy or fairness towards the Russian people. But, as one-sided as it is, I think that many valuable insights are made into the consequences of Russian history and also its politics over the last 30 years.

“And it [the Russian army] is doing the same thing to Ukraine as to Syria. That is, it is  technically possible to turn every Ukrainian city into Aleppo. There are orders, there is no honour, there is no dignity, there are no human values.”

If Ukraine is to lose the war, then Russia should be made to pay dearly for it. However, Putin has stated Russian nuclear doctrine- they will only use nuclear weapons if the survival of the state is threatened. This is widely held to be true. The big question is, who decides what the existential threat to the state looks like? Putin decides, of course. This is why the US and Europe must avoid a ham-fisted foreign policy with Russia. The Russian president is a belligerent madman in charge of a nuclear state and whose fantasies about Russian manifest destiny are his guide. Tensions with Russia are here to stay for many years. Putin supported Trump for a reason. Trump “respected” Putin for unknown reasons. We need to keep American madman and rogue narcissist Trump and his ilk far away from foreign policy.

Russian Media is Simmering About the War

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If you want to see something unnerving, have a look at what Russian state television is broadcasting about their “special military operation” and NATO’s part in it. The have a “60 Minutes” program where a group of individuals offer their opinions on the war. In particular, the USA has been the target of considerable waspish criticism and open speculation on the best US targets for nuclear attack on the talk show. It is common for them to conclude that World War 3 has already begun and that they may as well get on with crushing NATO. According to presenter Olga Skabeeva, Poland could or should be next. Have a look and see what state-run media and control of the internet can do.

Ekaterina Schulmann

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Below is a translation of a speech given by Russian political scientist and human rights activist Ekaterina Schulmann, cut and pasted in its entirety from an essay by Alexey Vlasenko who is the translator and a contributor to The Daily Kos. Schulmann has an interesting take on Putin’s motivation for the Ukraine invasion.

“Many people will ponder this question and come up with many different answers, all of which will seem logical.  Naturally, I have my own hypothesis, which I don’t claim is the one truth.  Nevertheless, since we are having such a remarkable discussion, I will share it.

He did this to halt time.  I’ll try to explain what this implies.

I think that these processes which we [political scientists] were observing, including the transformation of values, of worldviews, of public opinion [specifically in Russia], were real.  I do not think that we were all in thrall of illusions when we noted that violence in society is decreasing; that crime rates are falling; that new generations have a new value system; that video games actually reduce violence, rather than increase it; that, in general, the younger the social stratum, the more pronounced the decline in violent crime and in consumption of hard liquor; that imperial nostalgia is fading into the past.

Now, turn this picture around, and imagine yourself on the other side.  There you sit and watch as the sands of time slip through your fingers.  You will inevitably be succeeded by — let’s use his language — traitors.  Your children are traitors.  They do not share your view of life, they do not share your view of the world, they do not see that which you see with such clarity. You are the last defender of the fortress.  They will surrender it to the enemy, because they do not even consider him an enemy, and no matter how much you try to convince them, they still won’t consider.

A sizable, cultured and educated segment of the public sits around you at a safe distance, looks on and says:  “Go on, we’ll wait.  When you die, it will be our turn.  The sympathies of the future are on our side.  The youth idolizes us, not you.  But do go on, sit there for now, why not.  We will not storm the Kremlin, we only need to wait.”

A year passes, and another, then a third.  Everything continues in the same vein.  At the same time, your head is full of geopolitics, and the neighboring country is causing you unease.  It had somehow made progress, which is very disturbing.  And you realize that a little more, just a tiny bit longer, and that’s it, your historical time will end.  Your window will shut.  They will tell you: “Well, that’s enough, get down from there.  The next ones are coming.” And these next ones are unacceptable to you.  From your point of view, they are worse than useless, they will doom everything, they will ruin everything.

“He’ll smash to bits the sacred vessels, he’ll feed the dirt with royal oil, he’ll squander everything – and by what right?” [from The Covetous Knight, by Alexander Pushkin].  Read that again, and realize that this is not about money.  You will be seized with horror, at this hatred for one’s heirs, hatred for the living simply because they shall go on living.  “It’s time for me to rot, and you to blossom.”  A reasonable person can accept this, can caress a baby, understanding that “yes, I will turn to dust, but you will live on and prosper.”

But if you happen to be constituted a little bit differently, and you also happen to hold a great deal of power in your hands, then you can do this trick: onto the heads of all these future generations, you will overturn a heavy concrete slab, which will crush them forever, or least in any foreseeable perspective. That future that they wanted, they won’t get.  Instead, they will get the future your way, even after you are no longer among the living, because you will do such a thing, oh my…

You are inside, you understand?  Yes, inside this fortress that you’re guarding, you will figuratively detonate an atomic bomb.  True, there will be no life left in the fortress, but it will be radioactive and therefore unapproachable, and so it will forever remain “unconquered”, so to speak.

Not to speak of the specific culprit, with all due respect for him and his functions, but of a whole social and demographic stratum. Have you seen our average age figures?  But it’s not just age per se. It’s a certain social affiliation, a certain kind of experience, a certain world view that is formed by this experience.  Anyone who can’t accept the flow of time and come to terms with it, yet possesses power, could do this kind of thing.

This is my explanation.  It’s only a working hypothesis, but that’s how it is.  I do see confirmation from many sources, as well as in very public official pronouncements about how “we need to do this right now, tomorrow would be too late”, just another moment and everything will turn to irrevocable regret and musings of “we should have…”

This sentiment of “time flowing away” is something that I have been hearing for a long time, I think.  I speak about this whenever I discuss generational change.  The feeling that somehow history is not headed “in our direction”, this hatred and disgust for tomorrow, because “it is not what I need”, is clearly audible [in Putin’s speeches].  What was hard to grasp is that someone would go to such ends in an attempt to drown out these apparently unbearable feelings.

The trouble is, of course, that this terrible work of isolation is being done from both sides.  The wall is being built from both outside and inside.  We cannot blame the outside world for wanting to protect itself from, let’s say it out loud, an aggressive regime that is attacking and killing people.  Still, the labor of isolation is being worked by four hands.  It’s horrible.  [To repair the damage] will take a lot of work over a very long time.  Simply returning to a level that, until now, we took for granted, will require an unimaginable expenditure of effort and resources.  

It’s remarkable and tragic how humanity can squander its strength like this.”

Lavrov Speaks

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According to an article published in Newsweek and reposted by MSN, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reportedly said-

“”Our special military operation is meant to put an end to the unabashed expansion [of NATO] and the unabashed drive towards full domination by the U.S. and its Western subjects on the world stage,” Lavrov told Rossiya 24, according to a translation from Russian state-run media outlet RT.”

The purpose behind Putin’s “special military operation” seems to be shifting a bit. Originally it was meant perform the “denazification” of Ukraine. Now Lavrov is saying that the purpose is to stop domination of the US and NATO in the world. To its dismay, Russia has embarrassed itself by the poor performance of its military and its equipment so it is trying to distract observers from its bloody nose by posturing itself to be against a more global threat.

Putin is hypersensitive to sharing a border with a NATO country. As this is being written, there are reports of Russian military equipment moving towards the border with Finland. Earlier, the Kremlin sternly warned Sweden and Finland against joining NATO.

Outwardly, Putin acts like he thinks that NATO is an active threat to Russian territory. What he really thinks will probably never be known for sure, but he definitely seems to be afraid of the influence of western culture and openness on Russia. What many observers suggest is that Putin was horrified and deeply embarrassed by the collapse of the Soviet Union and he seeks to reclaim what he believes was its power and respect in the world.

A common theme in Russian media is that America is a failed empire and its global influence has gone too far for too long. They point to the cultural and political disorder in America and to instability in its governance. All the while, we keep shoveling coal into that fire. Russian media pays great attention to Fox News personalities like Tucker Carlson because of his sharp criticism of the actions of the US and NATO in the war in Ukraine. Now is the time for Carlson to stop aiding the other side with his fratricidal talk. Carlson’s handlers need to step up and do the right thing. Lachlan and Rupert Murdoch should be feeling some heat over this.

America is already in a very real war with both Russia and China over democracy vs autocracy. Both countries seek to knock America from its position of influence in the world. China is perhaps a bit more patient than Russia. The irony is that we may knock ourselves out of this position.