We’re approaching full circle from cold war to Perestrioka and collapse of the Soviet Union to re-ignition of cold war fires. News sources are reporting bluster of the most serious kind issuing from Vlad Putin in response to plans by the US to place ballistic missile interceptors in eastern Europe.
What motivates the Bush II administration to place anti-ballistic missiles and radar near the eastern frontier of Russia is a perceived ballistic missile threat from so-called rogue states. The reality of ballistic flight is that missiles launched from the region of Iran will fly over southwestern states of the former Soviet Union (FSU). In order to best detect and intercept such missiles heading for the EU, equipment would optimally be set up along the trajectory. Within the logic of strategic planning, the site placement seems consistent with the goal.
What is less than clear is the excuse for our ham fisted diplomacy with Russia. Yes, obviously Putin is escalating the bluster and the tensions in a manner that is less than rational. But the decision makers in the Bush administration appear to have been asleep during the cold war. Evidently the Bush administration didn’t consult with Russia in the run-up to missile site selection. It was felt that as members of the EU, Poland and the Czech Republic were no longer part of the eastern bloc and therefore Russia’s input was irrelevent. This was a whopper of a blunder.
The predictable result is that Russia is behaving like Russia, and, outwardly at least, the Bush people seemed slow to pick up on this. Finally, Bush Jr. is getting some on-the-job-training in eastern bloc politics.
The confrontation with Putin and Russia has begun to spin into something that will force Russia to vigorously protect and promote its interests. Putin is a lame duck and has to make some kind of stand to satisfy the quiet power brokers behind him. They can’t accept the placement of ABM systems in Poland anymore than we could allow it in Cuba or Alberta. Doesn’t matter if the initial placement consists of “smart rocks”. Any missile site can be quietly modified quickly.
There has been a disturbing lack of cultural and economic engagement between the United States and the FSU following the dissolution of the CCCP and the communist party. This is unfortunate. Western states should have made a more concerted effort to engage the FSU economically and socially.
For its part, the US has been curiously lacking in interaction with or even simple curiosity in regard to the progress of the FSU states in their difficult period of reconstruction. But I think that Russia has been characteristically distrustful of western intentions as well. Historians will ponder this transition period in world political history and wonder how it could be that even though a society got to push the reset button, the best it could come up with was Putin and the best that the other states could muster was benign neglect.
Lamentations on Chemistry 
What is painfully obvious is that the US anti-missile system – if it launches at all – is hopeless crap as such and vastly crappier in the presence of decoys (unless it carries a fat nuclear warhead). Coin toss.
The solution to Muslim adventurism would have been nuclear ablation of any Muslim state (or a few – same duration of squawking) within a week of 11 September 2001. As with President Carter and US Embassy hostages in Iraq, Bush the Lesser has shown himself to be a poltroon. Punch him in the face at at will.
NOBODY sane would launch a missile at the US because it is trivially traceable back to origin. John F. Kennedy was one of the most corrupt and cowardly Presidents. JFK found his backbone with the Cuban missile crisis. One presumes New York or Los Angeles being vaporized would rouse even Bush the Lesser. (Hitting Washington is the best possible outcome if Congress were in session.) Berlin, London, or Paris vaporized… recommended UN sanctions. France has nukes; does France have the balls to punch back? No.
Bush the Lesser burned $1.5 trillion in Muslim adventurism and obtained nothing in return. He has pledged $30 billion to fight HIV in Africa. He is an idiot’s idiot. The money could have wholly rebuilt America and been a remarkable Marshall Plan for transforming the USSR to Russia as an economic and political counter to China.
Thanks for your comments Uncle Al. Where is the chorus of voices pointing out the absurdities of intercepting re-entry bodies and decoys from ballistic missiles? The Iranians aren’t stupid. I can’t believe that even wing-nut mullah’s could gin up a credible scenario involving release of nuclear weapons on the west, given that we could glaze vast great swaths of any turf we choose. They know this. Assured distruction.
Bush’s middle eastern fetsh has cost the west much more than mere dollars.