The historian Niall Ferguson has made some important points recently on the topic of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Ferguson also published a piece online in Bloomberg. His point was built around the idea that AI should be considered an alien intelligence not to automatically be trusted.

[This isn’t Ferguson, this is my own view.] It is important to remember that the AI phenomenon we’re presently experiencing is that it’s the beginning of an economic bubble. It is a commercial product line constructed for the generation of wealth. It is meant to be a stand-in or augmentation for human beings. This contrivance has the potential for exceeding human abilities in a great many applications in both peace and war. AI will have lightning quick access to the world of information on and off the internet. It will produce both intended and unintended consequences, both of which may be considerable.

AI can be taught to be politically agnostic on one extreme, a political demagogue on the other, or something in between. It can be instructed to commit deception and espionage or angelic kindness. It can be instructed to apply Asimov’s 3 Laws of Robotics or not. Everything depends on the intentions of those in control.

Look around the internet world. It is plagued with troublemakers who are able to escape detection. There is tremendous good available from the internet, obviously, but there are also individuals, criminal enterprises and malevolent governments that are constantly rattling the doorknobs of legitimate websites looking for a way in. Social media has opened up a broad avenue for the efficient delivery of propaganda and swindling to the millions of unwary folk.

AI has a great many applications where it will be of tremendous help to people and organizations. One of the effects of technology advancement is that the time needed for completion of a given task is reduced. Another effect seen since the invention of the wheel is the reduction of labor. Eliminating people from a project reduces costs and increases the concentration of wealth to a few. Understand that cost reductions in business aren’t frequently passed along to consumers. The benefits of cost reductions belong to the stakeholders and will only be directly passed along if absolutely necessary. Cost reductions often manifest as stable pricing over time or a nulling out of inflation, which is a benefit to consumers.

AI will be an honest and moralistic force only if it is instructed to be. Look at the excessively clever application of psychology and show business in advertising. This is a result of fierce competition in the marketplace. Do we really believe that AI will be any different? Given the current state of world affairs, AI will be used as leverage for the transfer of wealth and power from the many to the few. This is the behavior of technological advance.

The promoters of AI will sing its high praises and accuse the doubters of being Luddites. They’ll remind us of the buggy whip and the steam locomotive. In some sense they’ll be right. But our recurring blind spot is with unbridled development. Capitalism as is currently practiced isn’t equipped with much in the way of forward looking moral or existential wariness. It is concerned with the efficient use of capital and distribution of goods. Thoughtful reflection about the future isn’t part of the equation. Greed and desire are the engines of capitalism.

AI will amplify both the best and the worst in us. We must be prepared for the worst because it will come.