Tag Archives: Artificial Intelligence

Freedom vs Predation

Americans, especially those of a particular political bent, love to exclaim that we love and cherish freedom. In America, the word ‘freedom’ is frequently used to amp up political rhetoric and to make people’s chests swell with pride with the aim of making us more receptive to a message. Particularly when playing Lee Greenwood’s song God bless the USA. This will not be the (n + 1)th valentine to freedom. Instead, my purpose is to reexamine a basic idea, i.e., certain pragmatics of freedom.

In America we thrive on a lumpy blend of civil liberties, freedoms and capitalistic ideals. Leading capitalists are both adored and despised, but not universally. Among many, being a millionaire or billionaire is tantamount to sainthood because if they are so rich, they must be doing something right. Luck is never part of the equation. In much of the USA, capitalism is raised to the level of a sacred obligation. Its principles are taken on hearsay or faith, and its boundaries are constantly pressing the limits of the law and ethics. In this way, capitalism is like a gas- it expands to fill the available space. Acquiring everything you can get away with is seen more as the act of a lone ranger. People have always admired a Robin Hood or a Jesse James character. Being one step ahead of the law is viewed as a righteous sport.

There is no doubt that capitalism has raised the level comfort, safety and wealth in America and elsewhere. One of the oft-cited merits of capitalism is that it seeks to raise the efficiency in the use of capital. From a distance that sounds like a dandy goal. Examples of the efficient use of capital are all around us and in ways that we may not recognize. Reducing the cost of doing business while retaining or increasing margins is a prime example of boosting the efficiency of capital. This benefits consumers if prices lower or remain level against inflation. But what about those who may have lost their jobs or their operating margins as the result of someone else’s boost in efficiency?

When the cost of doing business increases due to, say, tariffs, those afflicted are forced to raise their prices to pass along the costs. This is inflationary and most people understand this. But what about businesses not affected as much by tariffs? When they look around and see inflation raising prices by 6 %, aren’t they tempted to raise their prices as well? I would be. If customers are acclimated to inflation generally, they won’t mind if I raise my prices too, will they?

A misconception many people make is that if the cost of some raw material or labor drops, then the retailer will automatically pass that savings along to me. Ah, nope. They’ll bank the increase in margins. Why give away the boost in margins? This is just human nature.

The losses resulting from an increase in another’s raise in efficiency is part of progress. What about the buggy whip makers who went out of business after invention of then automobile? Who cried for them? A Pollyanna might say that they had a chance to expand their horizons into the automobile game.

After word processing became widespread and normal, it coincided with the extinction of the office secretary and typist pools. This helped to make Microsoft very wealthy at the expense of career secretarial staff. Today, most do their own secretarial work. Those who were once secretaries are now called administrative staff. Those of us who use word processors now spend our days on repetitive type setting chores.

Main Point

There comes a point where capitalism discolors into a shade of predatory behavior. The 1941 WC Fields movie Never Give a Sucker an Even Break expresses a sentiment held by many seeking easy money. It says that if I can take your money, you deserve it for being so clueless. In American history there are a great many incidents where a confidence man (conman) persuades an easy mark to part with his or her money. This kind of activity is always simmering somewhere. It involves a proposed cash transaction for something a doe-eyed sucker is anxious to exploit. Usually, the conman receives the cash and disappears leaving the sucker poorer and embarrassed. This extreme example is predatory behavior dressed up as a business transaction.

But capitalistic predators aren’t necessarily lone wolves tracking suckers. Many times, they operate from a store front as a legitimate business. Enron is a glaring example of a capitalistic enterprise that used the energy bull market of the 1990’s, creative accounting tricks and highly complex financial statements to mislead regulators and investors away from their felonious activities. So much money was being made that most were transfixed by their apparent success.

Obviously, business isn’t automatically fraudulent. But within the complex world of finance and accounting there exists a spider web of opportunities to lose your money. Predators may work in the shadows of crimes of omission rather than commission. The big investment people measure their strength and gain status through the contracts they land and the services they bill for. It is all very bewildering to outsiders.

So, what about the commercial onset of artificial intelligence, AI? It promises new vistas and opportunities by those who offer its services. Okay, but how and to whom? AI is already showing its worth in problem solving in many areas. Will AI understand context or counterpoints? Will AI eventually prosecute to the letter or to the spirit of the law? Will AI ever give a person a second chance based on past performance or extenuating circumstances in an HR situation?

Everyone has at some time has benefited from slack in the system, value judgements or another’s faith in your ability to improve. Will AI be used mainly to mete out discipline or strictness on the job? What happens when you are fired by an AI “staff member”? An AI staff member will be able to execute all manner of unpleasant duties in nearly every context. When will we have the right to be judged by a human being?

Chomsky’s Opinion Piece in the NYT on AI

The New York Times published an opinion piece on March 8, 2024, by Noam Chomsky, Ian Roberts and Jeffrey Watumull called “The False Promise of ChatGPT”. Dr. Chomsky and Dr. Roberts are Professors of Linguistics and Dr. Watumull is a director of AI at a technology company.

Both Chomsky and Roberts are professors of linguistics at prestigious universities. As linguists, their approach to AI begins with citing elements of human intelligence and drawing comparisons of what AI systems actually do. The human brain is not just a computational engine marching bits around inside silicon chips but made of fatty neurons. Our brains are able to ” … balance creativity with constraint”. I think this is called “considered judgement”.

Naturally the piece has spurred numerous rebuttals including one by ChatGPT. Having used ChatGPT, I can confirm that it left me in a state a wonderment. It is easy to be impressed by its speed and seemingly cogent response. AI and machine learning are part of a current and expanding technology bubble being inflated up by computer code squads in both academics and business. It is both a fascinating basket of problems to be solved and a lucrative startup space for an emerging industry.

Some text from the article-

If you look back on the history of science and technology, many patterns arise. The discovery or invention of the wheel and the lever, iron and copper smelting, the steam engine, the Voltaic pile, electromagnetism, coal tar distillates, the first sulfa antibiotic Prontosil, the discovery of nuclear fission, and many, many more discoveries and developments of core technologies. What these events have in common is that each sit at the beginning of a long and fruitful chain of succeeding developments along with business opportunities and great wealth. The wealth came from having something new and useful to sell. Most of these development chains involved the reduction of labor hours in production to produce a unit of product. With competition came the impetus to reduce costs to maintain sales.

An earlier technology bubble was the personal computer (PC). The PC’s very existence led to software development leading to an avalanche of improvement in every aspect of the PC. This led to the use of spreadsheets, word processors, email and databases which phased-out the need for a large secretarial pool. These improvements gave way to do-it-yourself correspondence and spreadsheet data analysis, as well as a multitude of data entry and typesetting chores for everyone. This had the effect of keeping the headcount down at the organization and perhaps raising margins.

The question now is, what kind of havoc in the labor market will be wreaked by AI? Will AI be exploited to traffic in political influence? It already has. AI amounts to a foam of adjacent expanding bubbles trying to push into every aspect of our lives, each bubble a cure looking for a disease. But virtually every new technology seeks the same. The difference with AI is that it in itself is a smooth-talking devil capable of offering either great good or an entry into the dark arts.

AI

The historian Niall Ferguson has made some important points recently on the topic of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Ferguson also published a piece online in Bloomberg. His point was built around the idea that AI should be considered an alien intelligence not to automatically be trusted.

[This isn’t Ferguson, this is my own view.] It is important to remember that the AI phenomenon we’re presently experiencing is that it’s the beginning of an economic bubble. It is a commercial product line constructed for the generation of wealth. It is meant to be a stand-in or augmentation for human beings. This contrivance has the potential for exceeding human abilities in a great many applications in both peace and war. AI will have lightning quick access to the world of information on and off the internet. It will produce both intended and unintended consequences, both of which may be considerable.

AI can be taught to be politically agnostic on one extreme, a political demagogue on the other, or something in between. It can be instructed to commit deception and espionage or angelic kindness. It can be instructed to apply Asimov’s 3 Laws of Robotics or not. Everything depends on the intentions of those in control.

Look around the internet world. It is plagued with troublemakers who are able to escape detection. There is tremendous good available from the internet, obviously, but there are also individuals, criminal enterprises and malevolent governments that are constantly rattling the doorknobs of legitimate websites looking for a way in. Social media has opened up a broad avenue for the efficient delivery of propaganda and swindling to the millions of unwary folk.

AI has a great many applications where it will be of tremendous help to people and organizations. One of the effects of technology advancement is that the time needed for completion of a given task is reduced. Another effect seen since the invention of the wheel is the reduction of labor. Eliminating people from a project reduces costs and increases the concentration of wealth to a few. Understand that cost reductions in business aren’t frequently passed along to consumers. The benefits of cost reductions belong to the stakeholders and will only be directly passed along if absolutely necessary. Cost reductions often manifest as stable pricing over time or a nulling out of inflation, which is a benefit to consumers.

AI will be an honest and moralistic force only if it is instructed to be. Look at the excessively clever application of psychology and show business in advertising. This is a result of fierce competition in the marketplace. Do we really believe that AI will be any different? Given the current state of world affairs, AI will be used as leverage for the transfer of wealth and power from the many to the few. This is the behavior of technological advance.

The promoters of AI will sing its high praises and accuse the doubters of being Luddites. They’ll remind us of the buggy whip and the steam locomotive. In some sense they’ll be right. But our recurring blind spot is with unbridled development. Capitalism as is currently practiced isn’t equipped with much in the way of forward looking moral or existential wariness. It is concerned with the efficient use of capital and distribution of goods. Thoughtful reflection about the future isn’t part of the equation. Greed and desire are the engines of capitalism.

AI will amplify both the best and the worst in us. We must be prepared for the worst because it will come.

Meta Making Progress Towards a Science Fiction-Like Dystopia

A piece in the Washington Post by Prashnu Verma appeared reporting progress with Meta’s Cicero artificial intelligence (AI) system. The thrust of the report is that Cicero can play a game called Diplomacy better than humans. The article is worth reading- I know nothing about AI so all I can do is link readers to the article.

Quoting from the Post article-

“Researchers at Meta, Facebook’s parent company, have unveiled an artificial intelligence model, named Cicero after the Roman statesman, that demonstrates skills of negotiation, trickery and forethought. More frequently than not, it wins at Diplomacy, a complex, ruthless strategy game where players forge alliances, craft battle plans and negotiate to conquer a stylized version of Europe.”

Further down …

“It’s a great example of just how much we can fool other human beings,” said Kentaro Toyama, a professor and artificial intelligence expert at the University of Michigan, who read Meta’s paper. “These things are super scary … [and] could be used for evil.”

The nations of the world have civil and criminal laws to discourage and punish people who use their natural intelligence to commit crimes and misdeeds. What about those who use- or unleash- AI to achieve ends that would otherwise be ruled as unethical or even illegal? Pet owners can be held liable for the damage their pets do. Why shouldn’t AI owners have at least the same liability? Could a court order the alteration of an AI’s algorithms in a way that would shut down objectionable or unlawful “behavior”.

If the work product in the application of any intelligence includes action, then where does that leave an AI that can make decisions independently? When could we let it loose to do things that may affect people in novel circumstances? And what kind of ethical responsibility do programmers have in anticipating negative outcomes and acting to arrest them? Lots of questions.

One of the consequences of technological advance has always been the elimination of jobs. That is, getting the same or better results with a lower headcount. It represents cost savings and added margins for an organization. AI will be a valuable tool in the eternal drive for faster-better-cheaper.

AI will almost certainly change many experiences in life. AI systems will manage and replace people in the workplace. It is likely to improve multitasking in many job descriptions, boosting productivity over human counterparts. AI will produce a more effective sales force because the art of persuasion will become much more highly refined. Just what we need- craftier salespersons humping our legs for a sale.

On the positive side, AI has the potential for executing better judgement in many situations. For example, law enforcement could be polished to a point where many errors in judgement can be avoided. This applies across the board in all activities.

AI will also enable criminal intent. The ability to execute crimes will be improved with better judgement, knowledge and fewer mistakes.

Soon, if not already, wars will be guided and fought between AI systems. Cold war type activity could be refined to produce better intelligence and undercover schemes to outwit the other side. Leaders could put AI to use in the darker side of governance. It could be used to keep better track of individuals and information related to them. It could also be used to apply punishment to people without the messy issue of personal morals.

Any dark human activity you can imagine can be made more effective with the application of AI. If it can be tried, it will be tried.