Estonia is in the news recently. The Baltic nation is preparing for a possible invasion by Putin’s Russia. The fact that Russia has taken more than 1.5 million casualties in its invasion of Ukraine with no sign of withdrawal or meaningful military improvement likely means that he is prepared to take more casualties.
In a speech, Putin stated that Russia has no interest in war with Europe. However, Putin warns of his concern about Russian speakers in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania who he claims are oppressed. This transparent concern was used to justify the 2014 invasion of Ukraine. Hitler used it as well prior to his invasion of the Sudetenland. So Vlad, move the suffering Russian speakers back to Mother Russia. Easy peasy, right? God knows you’ve got plenty of real estate.
Despite Putin’s spiral diving military losses in Ukraine, Russia continues its hybrid hostilities in Eastern European, the Baltic and Scandinavian countries. Russian military tactics and its vast inventory of cold war surplus equipment has proven to be a paper tiger. It’s an open question as to the condition of his nuclear armaments that he rattles now and then. Nuclear weapons have a shelf life.
With all of the bullets and drones flying in Putin’s war, it’s a wonder that some projectile hasn’t found him. But then, evil men like Putin typically survive long enough to kill millions and trash their countries. It is a dark mark for humanity that the underlings of murderous dictators rarely summon the courage to assassinate these bastards.
Putin is upping the ante as he continues to menace the Baltic states and Poland. He is testing NATO to stress test their mutual defense pact. Will NATO really enter a shooting war with Russia if Estonia or Finland are invaded? Russia constantly probes the defenses of its neighbors with aircraft and and other underhanded incursions, just as they routinely did during the cold war. Russia is disadvantaged in the sense that it’s direct access to warm open ocean ports for commerce is hampered by geography. Sea access and ocean access are not equivalent.
Open question: Who the hell wants to conquer Russia? Let ’em have the frozen damned place. Putin has a bullet point in some of his speeches where he assures that their foes want “what they have”. Who on God’s green earth wants Russia? It belongs to the historically insular and paranoid Russians. One might argue that the Mongol Hordes did in the 1200’s. But they were more interested in tribute payments, not governance.
There is zero indication that the Russian people will ever rise up to dethrone Putin. The Russian people have been cowed into passivity under threat of imprisonment in the gulags since before Stalin’s brutal rule. Even the faintest suggestion of a revolutionary movement in Russia is genuinely dangerous. Putin will fall over dead in office. [Note to self: remember to build a brutal state security organ like the KGB/FSB with remote concentration camps for forced labor of prisoners when I overthrow a country]
What will Putin’s successor be like? Would they step into the pre-fabricated mafia structure built by Putin? The problem is that Putin’s rule is a personality-based mafia organization which relies on his demand of a cut of the profits from his oligarchs, some say 50 %, against the assurance of prison or defenestration to leverage payments. Transfer to the next leader will be in contention. Russia is firmly built around bribery, kickbacks and favoritism. A conversion to a capitalistic democracy as fantasized in the west would take decades if ever.
Putin himself is only part of the problem of succession. Without a doubt, the Federal Security Service, or FSB, will require approval in any transfer of power. Russia’s military is a constant concern to the FSB. They will require a big part in any power transfer. The gamesmanship will be epic.
