Author Archives: gaussling

About gaussling

Gaussling is a senior scientist in the chemical business. He occasionally breaks glassware, spreads confusion and has been known to generate new forms of hazardous waste. Gaussling also digs aerospace, geology, and community theatre.

Why Can’t Vlad Play Nice?

1 Reply

Here is a truly naïve question: What is wrong with Russia? Why can’t Russian leaders focus on their own damned affairs rather than conquest or their clandestine efforts to destabilize other governments? From the western side of the globe this seems like a fair question. Are their lessons from history so scrambled that they have not learned some basic axioms of humane civilization? What happened to them? Why the perpetual paranoia, brutishness and authoritarianism?

It is important to separate “Kremlin” from “Russian people”. The Kremlin is a Moscow-based institution presided over by Russia’s national leadership. The Russian people are those working citizens distant from the Kremlin. Naturally, the Kremlin purports to represent the interests of the Russian people. Many say that the Kremlin represents an oligarchy inside and outside of the government. Most would say that Russia’s tradition of bribery and graft is rampant and even a built-in feature and not a bug. Whatever the case, it seems clear from the news that Russia’s military/industrial complex is riddled to the core with corruption.

The USSR and later Russia claim that they are threatened by Western adventurism and interference in their sovereign affairs. The lengthy Cold War between NATO and the Kremlin was largely about the spread of Soviet socialism and undesired political alignments between factions. Western countries were busy in the post-WWII years waging proxy battles and clandestine buggery with client states of the USSR and China. For our part, America didn’t do so well. In contrast with the Allied victory in Europe and Japan in WWII, the US had to sign an armistice with North Kores, a peace accord with North Viet Nam with the lightning-fast collapse of South Viet Nam, followed by the clumsy hijinks leading to the Iran-Contra scandal in the 80’s.

Kremlin policy would seem to be that “interfering in Russian Affairs” includes materiel support for emerging democracies around the world. This “interference” is justification for the incessant brinksmanship and covert meddling issuing from the Kremlin.

The US and coalition forces successfully routed the Iraqis in Kuwait in 1990 with the start of what became Gulf War I. After liberating Kuwait, US President George H.W. Bush invaded the Republic of Iraq destroying a good bit of their military but left Saddam Hussein in power. By 2003 George H.W.’s son, President George W. Bush, oversaw a clearly bogus campaign to take down Saddam right after the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. The smoke and mirrors show put on by the Bush administration conflating al Queda in Afghanistan with imaginary Iraqi weapons of mass destruction led to Saddam being quickly toppled and captured while hidden is a hole in the ground, tried and finally hung by his own people.

What the US-led coalition failed to appreciate was that Saddam held together Iraq by brute force and murder. Coalition forces swooped in and shut down his government without any thought as to the pragmatics of who will run the country the next day. There was the intent of giving birth to democracy with elections, but the power vacuum created by the toppling of Saddam and the dissolution of his government gave opportunity to numerous factions who jumped at it. This was the Iraqi insurgency which lasted until the US withdrawal in 2011.

US interventionism aimed at regime change by force or by covert efforts to remove certain leaders has a spotty record. Chili, Cuba and Nicaragua for example. The point is that US leaders have badly botched many schemes to cultivate governments friendly to US ambitions.

The first thing to remember is that we Americans view Russia through the smudged lens of our own popular culture and history. Over the decades since the end of WWII our self-appraisal of our many merits has swollen and become distended. The MAGA crowd seems to think there was a period of time when America was “Great”. I’d like to know when this happened. I’ve never heard MAGA people cite a particular time when this greatness occurred. Maybe they are thinking of the outcome of WWII and the succeeding few years. Perhaps it was their senior year of high school or during the summer break after third grade. When people?

As I survey American history as an amateur historian I have yet to find a halcyon period in America when peace and calm enveloped the land and all was well. With magnification, history is very granular and every year is a braided stream of tragedies, scoundrels and bad luck with the occasional patches of wonder and joy somewhere for a few. Well, perhaps this is all we can expect. Maybe the world really is a grubby place occupied mostly by people who are often nice, and with more than a few crackpots and psychopaths sprinkled here and there to round out the bell curve.

To be sure, we Americans have done a great deal to advance civilization overall in many ways. This has largely come through the allocation of funds in a resource-rich continent through capitalism, taxes and primed with incentivizing programs from the government after the New Deal. While necessity is the mother of invention, who can actually organize and monetize this necessity by asking for competitive bids on a moon project? A government can. Rather than “trickle-down” economics, this is pumped-down economics, and it works. What do the wealthy do with their tax savings? Trickle it down? Hardly, though some may allocate a bit of trickle-down money in venture capital firms, but that’s risky. Better to invest in solid assets like beachfront property in Florida.

The land that we call Russia, apart from the Siberian reaches of eastern Russia, has been home to many diverse peoples. One Wikipedia reference cites the beginning of Russia in the north with the Eastern Slavs in 862 CE and ruled by Viking conquerors. On this timeline, it is clear that people in the region have been in war, civil conflict or crushing poverty and authoritarianism almost continuously since then. The baseline condition of a great many people of Russia and nearby lands was the grinding poverty of serfdom and were only emancipated in 1861 by Tsar Alexander II. There have been invasions by the Mongols, Ottomans, Swedes, Napolean, Hitler, uprisings and fratricidal infighting for power. It is hard to know what occupants of the Moscow Kremlin are thinking. Russia seems destined to be ruled by an iron fist.

Unlike the English-speaking peoples, Russia never had a Magna Carta in their past outlining agreed upon limits to the power of the monarch. The very notion of wider participation in the conduct of government affairs was unknown. Democratic virtues taken for granted by western states never took hold in Russia. There was initially some hope for democracy after the fall of the Soviet Union by some, but there were no institutional and legal structures in place from which to operate a democratic republic. Worse yet, people were unemployed en masse and became frustrated by the lack of a “freedom dividend” and eventually there was support for a strongman leader. The collapse of the USSR left a power vacuum waiting to be filled. Yeltsin proved to be the wrong guy to inherit the reigns of power from the collapsed Soviet Politburo. He was widely seen as a drunken fool.

Russia had no history of conducting private business within the umbrella of international business law and capitalistic norms. What business law and intellectual property protection there may have been was from the Soviet era. Instead, there was a scramble to acquire the big industrial and financial pieces left over from the old USSR.

I’ve not found anything in the history of Russia that may have been a home-grown template for constructing a workable version of democracy. Russia’s long geographic and cultural isolation from the West doesn’t seem to have helped with the migration of what we might call the norms of democratic society. To be sure, Tsar Peter I (Peter the Great) had spent time in England and learned a great deal about shipbuilding and navigation, eventually leading to the formation of the Russian Baltic Fleet. King William III of England welcomed Peter because of the potential for trade with Russia.

The Soviets were successful in adopting some Western technologies and just enough consumerism to placate their population … partly. Unlike Western Europe, the USA, Canada and even Mexico who continue to be inundated by migrants wanting to get in, the USSR, on the other hand, had to contend with its citizens trying to escape. This is still a problem today in Russia. People vote with their feet.

Back to the initial question. Why can’t Vlad play nice? We can only guess. He is not burdened with a national history of a capitalistic democratic republic or with utopian visions of a liberal democratic society bursting with opportunities for everyone. Vlad is a product of his upbringing as a KGB officer in a closed and isolated security state with a population long accustomed to going along with what the central authoritarian leadership forcibly requires. As a former KGB operative in East Germany, he understands authoritarian rule at the ground level. While bubbling up the chain of command he mastered the complex internal Kremlin politics and managed to get selected by Yeltsin to succeed him. Lucky guy. But when will he decide enough is enough? Today, his poorly conceived plan to expand Russian influence by overtaking Ukraine has backfired, leading to over 500,000 Russian military casualties. Along with the loss of a large fraction of his conventional military armaments like tanks, cannon, radar, air defense systems, aircraft, naval vessels and so on, he has singlehandedly exposed the Russian military for what it is- a paper tiger, but only in conventional arms. He still has a potent nuclear triad to serve as his final stinger.

Chemicals on My Yard: Prodiamine and Dicamba

Leave a reply

In the US, it’s common to enhance one’s home with greenery, notably a grass lawn. However, a lawn requires ongoing attention. I have a lawn care service fertilize and treat our lawn with herbicides throughout the growing season. Recently, I’ve scrutinized the herbicides they use. They used prodiamine and dicamba.

Hold on a minute. Wasn’t the 2020 registration of dicamba nullified recently in federal court? Yes, it was. Why has it been sprayed on my lawn? The ruling applies to the use of dicamba on soybean and cotton crops that have been genetically modified to be resistant to it. The high volatility of dicamba has been quite deleterious to crops in adjacent farmland and to plants that are pollinated by bees because of drift resulting in crop losses and sharp decrease in honey production. Dicamba is a broadleaf herbicide, though not effective against grasses.

A Brief Meteorological Interlude

Nature continually directs hostility towards our lawns and gardens, both from above and the sides. Living in a semi-arid climate with only 14 inches of annual moisture, the lack of precipitation is immediately detrimental. The desiccating rays from the sun, located only 8 light minutes away, evaporate vital moisture from plants and soil. Compounding the problem, dehydrating winds whisk away the moisture cooking off the soil. Since moist air is more buoyant than dry air, it rises and is carried away by convection into the prevailing winds.

At higher elevations, the combination of increased moisture and decreased temperature can lead to cloud formation. Moisture ascending from the ground combines with the air above. The lower temperatures at these heights cause the moisture to transition from a gaseous to a liquid state, resulting in clouds. This change, although it appears innocent, has thermal consequences. For humidity to condense into liquid, the surrounding air temperature, which reveals “sensible” heat, must be low enough to absorb the “insensible” or latent heat released during condensation without causing a significant rise in temperature. If not, an increase in temperature would hasten the shift from condensation back to evaporation. There is a delicate equilibrium in this phase transition.

As latent heat is released, the air’s density decreases, enhancing its buoyancy and causing it to rise further. The ascending misty air cools, allowing more moisture to condense, which adds to the cloud’s mass. But wait, there’s more—

A rising air parcel causes the surrounding air to be drawn inward from below towards the ascending convective column. Consequently, a significant volume of air may be uplifted, enhancing the moisture levels above the ground contributing to the formation of a convective cumulus cloud. Latent heat supplies part of the energy needed for the vertical ascent of air. This cycle persists until a net downward movement of rain occurs, pulling down cooler air from higher altitudes. The cessation of upward momentum in cloud formation leads to a rapid downward surge of air with the rain, which, upon reaching the ground, spreads out horizontally, occasionally at high speeds. This explains why cool gusts of wind often signal the approach of a rainstorm.

Prodiamine

On to Prodiamine and Dicamba. These two herbicides provide broad coverage by virtue of different biochemical mechanisms. Dicamba is a selective postemergent broadleaf systemic herbicide.

Prodiamine is a pre-emergent herbicide effective on crabgrass and annual blue grass, goosegrass, spurge, chickweed. A pre-emergent herbicide like prodiamine is injected into the soil where it binds to soil particles. A close analog called Trifluralin, prodiamine without the NH2 group, has been shown to have sufficient volatility that sufficient vapor can penetrate root tissue where it expresses its activity.

Source: Jinyi Chen, Qin Yu, Eric Patterson, Chad Sayer, Stephen Powles,” Dinitroaniline Herbicide Resistance and Mechanisms in Weeds”, Front. Plant Sci., Sec. Crop and Product Physiology, 24 March 2021 Volume 12 – 2021 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2021.634018.

Prodiamine was invented by Sandoz and went to market in 1987. In 1996 Sandoz merged with Ciba-Geigy to form Novartis. In 2000 Novartis spun out its agrochemicals and genetically modified crops business and with AstraZeneca formed Syngenta, which is now part of the Syngenta Group, purchased by Sinochem in 2017.

Graphic: By Sam Scratch. A series of Dinitroaniline root inhibitors.

Comments on Patenting of Chemicals

When a biologically active substance is discovered, usually is the case that particular features and the shape of the molecule are crucial to the activity. Not just attachments but also the spatial relationship between them. The subject molecule is likely to be active in interacting with a pocket on an enzyme. That pocket has a particular 3-D shape that the molecule has to fit. Not only that, but the enzyme pocket is likely to have protein amino acid groups that have an affinity for charged or water insoluble features on the incoming molecule.

Looking at the prodiamine structure and analogs above, we can see that all of the analogs share certain features: two Nitro groups, -NO2; 1 Aniline nitrogen group with one or two hydrocarbons attached, -N(hydrocarbon)2 groups; a single 6-member hexagon ring (a benzene ring) from which to hang all of the appendages. Opposite to the top aniline nitrogen is an attachment present which 4 of the 6 analogs have: a -CF3 (trifluoromethyl) group attached. This doesn’t happen by accident- someone decided that it should be there because something useful happens with it there. A -CF3 group acts to pull electrons in the ring to lean in that direction, affecting how the electron charge is distributed on the whole molecule. Another analog has a -S(=O)2-NH2 group. This thing, called a sulfonamide group, also pulls ring electrons towards it. Why -CF3 versus -S(=O)2-NH2? Perhaps one is more potent or selective than the other or possibly because one was claimed in a patent and at the time the other was not. Either one could be a me-too herbicide. Analogs of a basic motif arise frequently in a competitive marketplace.

Often times, when a new and successful motif of pharmaceutical or agrochemical comes along, the race begins for competitors to develop close analogs, though being careful not to infringe on any patents. With chemical patents the composition of matter can be claimed, the method for making the substance as well as the method of use. Composition of matter, method of manufacture and use claims are often split into separate patents for IP safety in case one patent gets knocked down. What’s more, a composition of matter patent can be written so as to claim a vast number of analogs to broaden the IP real estate. This is called a Markush claim where a variable letter substitutes for a large or small set of chemical groups. A single structural framework can have many Markush groups giving rise to an astronomically large set of claimed combinations. Some companies, hide the composition of the best analogs in the Markush claims so as to minimize competitive intelligence losses to competitors.

Dicamba

A weed is a valueless plant growing wild that is in competition with a desired crop. The three major morphological categories are: grasses, sedges, and broadleaf weeds. A weed represents lost soil fertility.

Dicamba is a member of the benzoic acid subgroup of the aromatic carboxylic acid group of herbicides. This group of compounds are synthetic auxins, or plant hormones, that interfere with plant growth.

Source: Robin Mesnage, Michael Antoniou, “6 – Mammalian toxicity of herbicides used in intensive GM crop farming”, Herbicides: Chemistry, Efficacy, Toxicology, and Environmental Impacts, Emerging Issues in Analytical Chemistry, 2021, Pages 143-180. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-823674-1.00007-9.

Other popular herbicides

Other carboxylic acid herbicides besides dicamba are the 2,4-D analogs.

Graphics: Sam Scratch. The much-dreaded toxicant dioxin (TCDD) was a side product in the manufacture of the herbicide 2,4,5-T. When 2,4,5-T was blended with 2,4-D to make agent orange, the dioxin came along.

Of the numerous forms of the dioxins, the species that is often discussed is the 2,3,7,8-TCDD version. The positions and number of chlorine atoms varies. The mechanism above shows the dioxin analog coming from 2,4,5-T. The 3-ring structure of TCDD is the dioxin core structure.

Graphics: Sam Scratch. How dioxin was formed in the 2,4,5-T process. The chemical mechanism begins with the displacement of 1 chlorine atom of the 1,2,4,5-tetrachlorobenzene by a hydroxide anion turning the tetrachoro ring into 2,4,5-trichlorophenol. In the presence of NaOH, the phenol turns into a phenolate which attacks the chloroacetic acid to form 2,4,5-T. However, a competing reaction involving the trichlorophenolate attacking another molecule of itself over a few steps can lead to the cyclization of the trichlorophenolate to the 2,3,7,8-TCDD. The displacement of a ring chlorine is somewhat slower than the displacement of a chlorine from acetic acid, so dioxin formation would be a minor side product.

2,4-D is a synthetic auxin, similar to dicamba in mechanism, that causes uncontrolled and unsustainable cell growth. The herbicide is absorbed through the leaves and is moved to the meristem where uncontrolled cell growth follows.

Mass Groveling of the GOP Brain Trust

Leave a reply

The news today from Faux News is that picayune Rep. Greg Steube, R-Fla., wants to rename the Exclusive Economic Zone after Donald J. Trump. All 4,383,000 square miles of it. He proposes to call it the “Donald John Trump Exclusive Economic Zone of the United States.” The EEZ extends out 200 miles offshore around the entirety of the US and possessions.

According to Mirriam Webster-

picayune • \pik-ee-YOON\ • adjective. : of little value : paltry; also : petty, small-minded.

This is after the earlier attempt to rename Washington-Dulles Airport after the orange felon. The brainwave behind this was Rep. Guy Reschenthaler, R-Pa., the House GOP’s chief deputy whip. This was supported by Reps. Michael Waltz, R-Fla.; Andy Ogles, R-Tenn.; Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn.; Paul Gosar, R-Ariz.; Barry Moore, R-Ala.; and Troy Nehls, R-Texas.

Do we actually have to say it? How can this be any more than open groveling for favor by orthodox MAGA-mites at the top of the pyramid holding up an offering to the Orange Sun God. Could it actually be more pathetic?

Congressional Republican Mandarins pleading before the Orange Sun God for a bountiful election.

Shell CEO Tips his Hat to the Biden Administration

Leave a reply

Here is a link to an article reporting on comments made by Wael Sawan, CEO of oil major Shell plc. He stated that Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law and Inflation Reduction Act “seem to be working in terms of attracting a significant amount of capital in different states, whether it’s a red or blue state,” at a meeting of the centrist Center for Strategic and International Studies.

It wasn’t all sweetness and light. He was critical of the Biden administration for its decision to pause new LNG export permits pending a thorough review of climate impacts. Sawan explained his view-

“I think sometimes the disagreement stems from the fact that it is a fossil fuel, therefore it cannot be clean. There is an almost absolutist perspective on this that some have” in parts of Washington and some European capitals, he said. “While I respect that view, the reality is it is an energy transition. And we need to be able to transition to lower-carbon solutions.”

I have to agree with his comment. Given the colossal size of the global oil & gas (O&G) industry and the extensive reach of our reliance on petroleum fuels and chemical products like plastics, there must be a transition shallow enough to evolve into renewables without crashing the global economy and the political upset that will come from that. The path to renewables has to start sometime, but maybe there should be some negotiation on the LNG export permits, if there already hasn’t been any. Sawan’s comments on this were valuable.

The matter of climate change is pressing and the motivation to change rapidly is irresistible to many. But it took many decades to get into this mess and it looks like it will take some time to ameliorate it. In the meantime, we the public can alter our consumption and driving habits en masse and make real change faster than government policy.

Successful Launch of the Boeing Starliner

Leave a reply

Kudos to Boeing and NASA for the triumphant launch of the Starliner aboard an Atlas V rocket, carrying astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams. The duo is tasked with delivering vital cargo to the space station, including a replacement pump for the malfunctioning urine processor that’s part of the water recovery system. With a seven-member crew on the station, one can envision the quick accumulation of urine. Let’s hope they were well-stocked with zip-lock bags.

Crewed space vehicles must rise to extra design requirements and certification steps over uncrewed launch systems. A crewed vehicle must be highly reliable with redundant systems and levels of control that the crew can take charge of to qualify for a human rating. According to NASA protocol requirements, to qualify under NASA CCP human-rating standard, the probability of a loss ascent and loss on descent should be no greater than 1 in 500 each way. The overall mission risk of loss, including on orbit, must not exceed 1 in 270.

The program shall be designed so that the cumulative probability of safe crew return over the life of the program exceeds 0.99. This will be accomplished through the use of all available mechanisms including mission success, abort, safe haven, and crew escape. Source: NASAs Human Rating Requirements.

The development of a human-rated space launch system that intends to use equipment and systems that have not been previously flight tested has a tough row to hoe. Entire buildings of cold, skeptical eyes will insist on being satisfied before any new system goes to launch. But this is true for the aerospace industry and the FAA in general. Software driven systems present challenges to software designers to get past a validation.

The string of crashes, delays and failures that Boeing has endured in the last few years is certainly noteworthy. Some have lamented that the company culture has drifted away from its earlier strong engineering culture to something else. Perhaps drifting MBA curricula and B-school faculty & consultant enthusiasms have contributed to some kind of inflection point in the thinking of the present C-suite inhabitants. Whatever the case, Boeing had better get its Mojo back.

ISS water and urine recycling system. Wait, shouldn’t there be a curtain for privacy?

De-platforming Trump and Misinformers From Twitter, YouTube and Facebook. The Effect on Disinformation.

Leave a reply

The top-tier scientific journal Nature published on June 5, 2024, a research paper on the effects of Twitter de-platforming 70,000 accounts providing fake news. Unfortunately for many (most?) of us, online access to Nature is behind a paywall.

I won’t waste time on an analysis of someone else’s brief analysis of the hidden Nature article “Post-January 6th deplatforming reduced the reach of misinformation on Twitter.” Am I too miserly for not paying for a Nature article or a subscription? Yes, I am. I will include a link here to a brief online review article at TechPolicy.press for the readers consideration.

“The report makes clear that the authors could not reliably identify the magnitude of the observed effects due to the complexity of the events surrounding the insurrection and the volume of the news reporting on it, and that the results may not be generalizable to other platforms or events. But while Twitter normally “benefitted enormously from Trump’s volatile tweets” by keeping the platform “at the center of public discourse,” they say, the events at the US Capitol marked a moment of crisis for the company. “January 6th is a moment that highlights the relationship between real-world violence and misinformation, as well as the attempt at purposeful control over political speech on Twitter by its leadership,” the paper reads. In th [sic] moment of crisis, perhaps the bluntest of content moderation tools appears to have had the intended effect.” Source: TechPolicy.Press [Emphasis mine]

Instead of relying on words and handwaving, the authors of the Nature paper above used actual Twitter data from 500,000 users over June 2020 to February 2021 to extract trends about the very complex behavior surrounding the Jan 6th, 2021, event. Again, from the TechPolicy.press article …

“To answer these questions, the researchers used data acquired during the two most recent US election cycles to compare the misinformation sharing rates on Twitter. The 2020 election share rate among all Twitter users was five times higher than in the 2016 elections, and about twice as high among misinformation sharers. Following the November 2020 elections, and up until January 6th, the rates of misinformation remained “relatively high,” which is in direct contrast with the 2016 elections, where misinformation “declined immediately following Trump’s victory.” These results suggest “a marked change in the misinformation ecosystem on Twitter over time,” according to the paper.” Source: TechPolicy.Press [Emphasis mine]

It is interesting how the “misinformation declined immediately following Trump’s victory.” Golly, why would that be?

A doff of the hat to the authors.

Vatican Cracking Down on Alleged Apparitions

Leave a reply

When a tiny slit between the grubby natural world and the rarefied ether of the supernatural tears and the two realms have a chance to see one another, people will naturally want to tell others. As luck would have it, when Catholics experience an apparition, it always seems to be from the Catholic playbook. You know, the Blessed Virgin, Jesus on toast or Saint so-and-so. It’s never Martin Luther or Desmond Tutu.

I write about this only as an amused outsider. I don’t care what they think they saw. Let ’em have it. It’s a great story to share. What is engaging for me is that the Church is uneasy with the doctrinal implications of what many of the apparitions or miracles have brought to the mix. The quote below by Cardinal Víctor Manuel Fernández is insightful.

“Even recently, some bishops have wanted to make statements such as, ‘I confirm the absolute truth of the facts’ and ‘the faithful must undoubtedly consider as true …’”. “These expressions,” [Cardinal Víctor Manuel] Fernández states, “effectively oriented the faithful to think they had to believe in these phenomena, which sometimes were valued more than the Gospel itself.”

Effective May 19, 2024, the Vatican has issued a document titled “Norms for Proceeding in the Discernment of Alleged Supernatural Phenomena.” Whereas previously, a local bishop had much discretion in what he decides before he announces a determination on an event of alleged supernatural origin. The new guideline states that the Vatican’s Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith (DDF) “must always be consulted and give final approval to what the bishop decides …”. The new norms say that “only the pope can judge that an alleged apparition or other phenomenon is of “supernatural origin.” 

What is going on with the supernatural phenomena issue? Has there been an outbreak? The whole religion rests on a pillar of the supernatural so is it really that bad? The real change is very small- the main difference with the new guideline is that consultation between the diocesan bishop and the dicastery is now in the open rather than going unmentioned and the Pope has the final word according to the Catholic News Agency. They don’t want the doctrine to get too wacky.

Why? It seems that the accounts of personal revelation and Marian apparitions were getting a bit out of hand. Many bishops have been inclined to rule in a positive way in favor of the alleged apparition. This became a problem writ large in the minds of some and it had to be addressed.

As I have previously mentioned, I did time in Texas. I did a postdoc in the blazing hot, heavily Catholic city of San Antonio, TX. One evening on the local news there was a TV camera crew trying to capture an apparition of the Blessed Virgin Mary. It happened in an alley in a tree back lit by a streetlight and it drew a crowd of anxious, jabbering onlookers. The apparition itself was actually a shadow from a tree under the streetlight. But with the car headlights and TV camera lights it had completely vanished. Yet people lingered, hoping for a glimpse of the miraculous sighting. Eventually, the camera crew signed off and left. It was yet another Marian Apparition witnessed only by a lucky few.

Chomsky’s Opinion Piece in the NYT on AI

Leave a reply

The New York Times published an opinion piece on March 8, 2024, by Noam Chomsky, Ian Roberts and Jeffrey Watumull called “The False Promise of ChatGPT”. Dr. Chomsky and Dr. Roberts are Professors of Linguistics and Dr. Watumull is a director of AI at a technology company.

Both Chomsky and Roberts are professors of linguistics at prestigious universities. As linguists, their approach to AI begins with citing elements of human intelligence and drawing comparisons of what AI systems actually do. The human brain is not just a computational engine marching bits around inside silicon chips but made of fatty neurons. Our brains are able to ” … balance creativity with constraint”. I think this is called “considered judgement”.

Naturally the piece has spurred numerous rebuttals including one by ChatGPT. Having used ChatGPT, I can confirm that it left me in a state a wonderment. It is easy to be impressed by its speed and seemingly cogent response. AI and machine learning are part of a current and expanding technology bubble being inflated up by computer code squads in both academics and business. It is both a fascinating basket of problems to be solved and a lucrative startup space for an emerging industry.

Some text from the article-

“OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Google’s Bard and Microsoft’s Sydney are marvels of machine learning. Roughly speaking, they take huge amounts of data, search for patterns in it and become increasingly proficient at generating statistically probable outputs — such as seemingly humanlike language and thought. These programs have been hailed as the first glimmers on the horizon of artificial general intelligence — that long-prophesied moment when mechanical minds surpass human brains not only quantitatively in terms of processing speed and memory size but also qualitatively in terms of intellectual insight, artistic creativity and every other distinctively human faculty.”

“In short, ChatGPT and its brethren are constitutionally unable to balance creativity with constraint. They either overgenerate (producing both truths and falsehoods, endorsing ethical and unethical decisions alike) or undergenerate (exhibiting noncommitment to any decisions and indifference to consequences). Given the amorality, faux science and linguistic incompetence of these systems, we can only laugh or cry at their popularity.”

“The crux of machine learning is description and prediction; it does not posit any causal mechanisms or physical laws. Of course, any human-style explanation is not necessarily correct; we are fallible. But this is part of what it means to think: To be right, it must be possible to be wrong. Intelligence consists not only of creative conjectures but also of creative criticism. Human-style thought is based on possible explanations and error correction, a process that gradually limits what possibilities can be rationally considered. (As Sherlock Holmes said to Dr. Watson, “When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”)” [Emphasis mine]

My own opinion of AI is only just a series of half-formed, half-assed sputtering sentence fragments that are in the “It’ll never fly, Orville” stage. Nobody wants to hear that.

If you look back on the history of science and technology, many patterns arise. The discovery or invention of the wheel and the lever, iron and copper smelting, the steam engine, the Voltaic pile, electromagnetism, coal tar distillates, the first sulfa antibiotic Prontosil, the discovery of nuclear fission, and many, many more discoveries and developments of core technologies. What these events have in common is that each sit at the beginning of a long and fruitful chain of succeeding developments along with business opportunities and great wealth. The wealth came from having something new and useful to sell. Most of these development chains involved the reduction of labor hours in production to produce a unit of product. With competition came the impetus to reduce costs to maintain sales.

An earlier technology bubble was the personal computer (PC). The PC’s very existence led to software development leading to an avalanche of improvement in every aspect of the PC. This led to the use of spreadsheets, word processors, email and databases which phased-out the need for a large secretarial pool. These improvements gave way to do-it-yourself correspondence and spreadsheet data analysis, as well as a multitude of data entry and typesetting chores for everyone. This had the effect of keeping the headcount down at the organization and perhaps raising margins.

The question now is, what kind of havoc in the labor market will be wreaked by AI? Will AI be exploited to traffic in political influence? It already has. AI amounts to a foam of adjacent expanding bubbles trying to push into every aspect of our lives, each bubble a cure looking for a disease. But virtually every new technology seeks the same. The difference with AI is that it in itself is a smooth-talking devil capable of offering either great good or an entry into the dark arts.

Risk and Regulations: An Epistle to the Bohemians, Redux.

Leave a reply

Attached is an updated reprint of an essay I posted 10/28/07. Since then I have shifted into EPA regulatory compliance within the chemical industry. My views have changed a little, it turns out.

==========

“We live in an age of miracle and wonder” is the refrain from Paul Simon’s album Graceland. All around us and through us are engineered materials devised for their specific physical and chemical properties. Time-released magic bullet drugs that inhibit specific enzymes. Flavors & fragrances, colorants, rheology modifiers, UV absorbers, emollients, preservatives, food irradiation and manufactured food additives are engineered and marketed to satisfy our lizard brain’s willingness to shell out cash-for-fun and stimulate our limbic system’s emotive triggers. 

It is hard to avoid contact with manufactured goods that aren’t affected by chemistry. A century and a half of tinkering with substances at the molecular scale has given us the ability to optimize the composition and performance of products that make our lives easier and safer.  Microprocessors and Lycra, Hastelloy and Lipitor- the chemical industry has evolved to produce the raw materials and finished goods needed for the performance we have come to expect.

Industry has a Spotty Record of Safety

Along with the considerable list of positive contributions, history provides a detailed record of the problems associated with the exuberant but uncritical acceptance of the flood of manufactured goods.  From radium poisoning of watch dial painters to chromium VI to asbestos, there is a long list of accidents, ignorance, negligence and environmental insult. The trail blazing of our chemical industry leaves behind it a chronicle of tragedy as well as benefits.

The result of the checkered past of industry is a growing (some would say “metastasizing”) and intertwined web of state, federal, and international regulatory oversight and requirements. And with it- arguably as a result of it- has come greater institutional risk aversion. 

Risk Aversion

In a general way, risk aversion is a type of survival trait and is likely hardwired into our ape brains. It is hard to blame people for being wary or fearful of risks, especially those they do not understand. Over time risk aversion is useful survival trait. But on the other hand, risk aversion is also a type of inertia. Or, it can be a fulcrum from which policy and imaginary justifications are leveraged.  The fear of risk may be firmly grounded on experience or it might be imagined or a mixture of the two. The hard part of risk management is identifying real hazards and the probability and magnitude of a bad outcome for managing safety day-to-day. Basically, the hard part is the whole part.

Risk = Probability x Severity of a negative outcome.

Corporate officers have a fiduciary responsibility to the stockholders. They’re purpose is to maximize profits without undue risk to the organization. Most respond to the regulatory environment by perhaps heaving a sigh and relenting to the requirements. Regulatory compliance can have costs associated with it like animal testing of chemical products and intermediates, or engineering upgrades and these costs need to be built into annual budgetary calculations.

How Granular Does Safety Have to Be?

Can safety practices be excessive? I would say that if some specific activity is based on imaginary risks, risks identified by the untrained or massively overestimated risks, the cold eyes of an industry consultant may be needed. Who knows, you may have actually underestimated a risk.

Safety has a large psychological component to it. How do you compel people to behave consistently in a way that keeps everyone safe? Not just immediately, but in the twentieth or five hundredth time they perform a task with associated hazards? Complacency is a normal human weakness where a misstep can lead to casualties.

The amount and type of safety measures in chemical processing required greatly depends on the chemical substance. Some company’s batch records give very detailed instructions to maintain constant safety. Others are less so on the assumption that the operations staff know what they are doing. Too much detail can lead to operator impatience and freelancing.

It is possible for organizations to be dominated by confident voices that are quite risk averse but not very knowledgeable about the technology. Leaders will state that “safety-first is our policy”.  A paper storm of SOPs will issue, dragging out the most elementary actions into numerous steps and check boxes. There is great merit to SOPs, but enlightened and proactive interpersonal management of hazardous operations is just as important. Management by walking around works.

Organizations can find themselves spiraling into micromanagement of even the smallest details for fear that the regulatory and liability hammer could fall at any moment. Indeed, if one studies many regulations in detail, it is easy to fall into habit of overreacting. Risk aversion isn’t just a personality issue, it is statutory under numerous regulatory umbrellas.

Being a baby boomer, the chemical safety practices I have been exposed to and have practiced is rather out of date. My education occurred during a time when running chemical reactions on an unventilated bench top was normal. We used Tirrill burners to flame dry our glassware on the sophomore organic lab benchtop and set the hot glass on a Transite square, an asbestos product from Johns Manville. I still would have no problem using Transite. In fact, I have done many things since summer of 1980 that would be frowned upon today. My grad school and post doc time went way into the weeds on using hazardous materials with minimal oversight.

You learn how to safely handle chemicals by safely handling chemicals. In the course of using a chemical, you might conclude that the known hazard of the substance appears to be exaggerated, so over time and repetition you let your safety practices loosen up a bit. Then one day, you cross some unseen line and an energetic event happens. While what you did leading to this outcome might be categorized as carelessness, as they drag you out of the lab by your one remaining arm, your ears ringing, a metallic taste in your mouth, and partially covered by your torn and smoldering lab coat, you recognize that you actually learned something from that experience. You now have a better appreciation for the safe operating range for that chemical. You’ve gotten one quantum unit of expertise. This is one way to gain expertise, albeit a painful one. Perhaps it will be useful once you start your next career. I have had many close calls and each one taught me something. Perversely, not having close calls with chemicals- some would call it luck -actually deprives one of practical and useful experience.

Today I am a senior chemist involved in chemical safety in industry. Until recently, I was involved in finding the thermal safety boundaries of chemical reactions through calorimetry. But with the past experience that I have, I know a bit more about the boundary conditions of handling chemicals than the younger chemists may get to acquire. In order to know how to work with hazardous chemicals you must have worked previously with hazardous chemicals and perhaps seen for yourself what can happen with sloppy technique.

This is nothing reckless like poking alligators with a stick in Florida or free climbing El Capitan. I mean things like seeing what actually happens when you pour concentrated H2SO4 into water fast enough right up to the boiling point taking care not to have a splash. Maybe you can see the heat of dilution boiling the water at the H2SO4/water interface.

The Regulatory Environment

Statutory risk aversion is the domain of the state. The name “Nanny State” is a sarcastic descriptor referring to a perceived excess of regulated requirements and conditions in our lives as well as the set of penalties.  Though perhaps well intended, the Nanny State seeks to zero out risk. Even if a situation arises for which there is no explicit regulation, OSHA has the General Duty Clause where employers are required to provide:

“employment and a place of employment which are free from recognized hazards that are causing or are likely to cause death or serious physical harm to his employees…”

This provision exists to address any gaps in OSHA regulations that may not account for unforeseen circumstances. The plethora of regulations is partly due to the vast array of situations in which industrial employees might be injured or killed. Additionally, lawyers have identified and exploited loopholes in the regulations, which are subsequently closed by regulatory agencies. Ambiguities are often resolved through statutory amendments or the application of established case law.

EPA TSCA has the job of generating and enforcing regulations regarding the manufacture and use of a range of industrial chemicals in a limited sector of manufacturing. The central doctrine is from:

As required under section 6(b)(4) of the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), EPA is issuing a rule that establishes a process for conducting risk evaluations to determine whether a chemical substance presents an unreasonable risk of injury to health or the environment, without consideration of costs or other non-risk factors, including an unreasonable risk to a potentially exposed or susceptible subpopulation, under the conditions of use. [Emphasis mine]

TSCA does not include Food, Drugs, Petroleum, Pesticides and a few other areas.

The key words above are unreasonable risk. With every New Chemical Substance filing sent to the TSCA folks at EPA, an assessment must be made by various subgroups for unreasonable risk by the human health group, the engineering group and the environmental group. Thresholds for “unreasonable” have been quantified in order to exclude subjectivity. EPA has many computer models of exposure thresholds, migration in the soil and toxicity to many creatures including humans.

The regulatory environment can make the production of a new chemical substance more expensive or even unfeasible. Nobody advocates the idea that we should be free to pollute and risk the lives of workers and communities.  But even for the most skillful and well-intended, there are many regulatory landmines to dodge: air, water, and waste permits; local zoning; OSHA; EPA (TSCA); fire codes; insurance inspections; MSDS’s in multiple languages; ITAR; and DEA. All have reporting requirements, statutes, and paper trails to maintain.

Pragmatics

There are two kinds of disaster that can bring down a chemical plant. One is obviously a fire or explosion in the plant made even worse by casualties. The other is an administrative or legal disaster. This could be a tax problem or worse like having been determined to be out of EPA regulatory compliance for a chemical release into the environment or worker exposure over time. EPA fines are levied per day per violation.

In my view, the USA began ossifying many years ago in regulatory paralysis in much the same way the EU or Japan has.  The combination of business risk aversion along with the popular sport of outsourcing our means of production only serves to accelerate the de-industrialization of the USA and the EU. At present there is some effort by the semiconductor manufacturers and others to repatriate manufacturing back to the US out of fear of foreign governments using strategic trade regulation as a competitive cudgel.

What can one reasonably do? Consider even if regulations could be softened, this could take a long time. Until such time as there is a change in regulation, it is best to knuckle under willingly. First on the list is to just be compliant with regulations. Even an excellent argument against an “unjust” regulation enforced by an agency will get you nowhere because regulators are legally required to enforce the regulations and fine violators. If you are facing a regulatory judgement, it is well worth having a lawyer who specializes in that area of the law.

Accepting a harsh judgement on your record can possibly hurt you in the future by having a history of serious earlier infractions. A lawyer can search the case law and possibly find a lesser judgement or better interpretation of the regulations. Avoid at all costs the possibility of being found a repeat violator in some future court action. There could be extenuating circumstances that should be taken into account, but this is the lawyer’s domain and is no place for amateurs.

Fiat Lux

In the chemical industry we have regulatory specialists and EH&S departments who keep on top of the regulations and are responsible for maintaining timely compliance. They help keep the doors open and should be appreciated. That said, executives lurking in the C-Suite should be at least conversant in labor and environmental regulation to the point where they know to get advice before issuing directions relating to this.

Note: Obviously I’m not a damned lawyer and my words should not be construed as actual legal advice. I am simply recollecting learnings from my experiences.

Learning Chemistry and Struggle

2 Replies

A few thoughts on struggle in learning. I’ll confess to having taught undergraduates in the classroom and the research lab environment. My classroom teaching bona fides are limited to 6 years of college level chemistry lecture/lab and quite a bit of one-on-one chemistry tutoring.

Many students approach college chemistry courses with caution. For some, a year of freshman general chemistry is mandatory for their major. Majors such as pre-med, physical therapy, and veterinary medicine require organic chemistry in addition to general chemistry. As my specialty lies in organic chemistry, I have experience teaching both general and organic chemistry students..

From my perspective, general chemistry is as much a mathematics course as it is a science course for many first-year students. A significant portion of general chemistry involves establishing and solving problems that necessitate fundamental algebraic manipulations and calculations. Skills such as balancing equations, maintaining units throughout calculations, and understanding significant figures are essential to master. Additionally, there is the challenge of learning the new vocabulary.

Students who managed to avoid chemistry in high school sometimes found themselves treading water in college chemistry and were afraid of taking two 5 credit hour hits to their GPAs. Most pushed on and got through it. General chemistry is a foundation course and is critical for further pursuits in fields related to the use of chemicals. Unfortunately, a year of gen chem doesn’t really make a person able to function as an independent chemist. It is helpful, though, for technicians in a lab doing routine chemical tests.

Gen chem is to chemistry as The Hobbit is to The Lord of the Rings– it is the necessary prelude to a larger story.

A common problem I encountered while teaching chemistry was the desire of some students to give up hope of ever “getting it”. They would hold off attending office hours to discuss their difficulties until it was too far down the semester timeline. This was usually after a few botched regular exams or a low midterm grade. Frequently the struggling student was having trouble with or neglecting the assigned homework from the text.

Now and then you’d run into a prof who had performance expectations that even they might not have met as an undergrad. They’ll strut around acting as though they were singlehandedly maintaining “proper” academic ideals. Who knows, maybe they had a point. You can try to enthuse everyone using words and pictures, but inevitably there are those who are utterly disinterested, inept or just anxious to put chemistry behind them.

In retrospect, I should have been more direct in calling in more students to office hours who were in grade trouble early in the term. Unfortunately, like many other profs I sometimes subscribed to the sink or swim approach to college education where unsuitable students are culled from the herd. It is a sort of Darwinistic mindset that is easy to fall into. In the end, we have to give all students a fair chance or even a second chance to earn the credentials that the institution confers.

Colleges are organizations that award credentials to verify achievement in meeting or exceeding educational standards set by in-house professors. It tells people that you completed what you started: you navigated a complex maze of intellectual achievements and came out the other side a success.

For any given subject there are always those who struggle with it to some extent. It could be from simple boredom, distractions from real life or the comprehending of difficult material. It may be that the subject just isn’t for them. For myself, I struggled with a foreign language and eventually gave up. I needed full immersion and that wasn’t going to happen. I still regret giving up.

One problem that can often be addressed, however, is the matter of struggle. It seems that many students are not accustomed to struggling with learning. All of us have learned particular subjects successfully because it “just fit” our cognitive abilities, interest or perhaps it was brilliantly presented to us. Or it was a special time in our lives when we were uniquely receptive. It could very well be that previous exposure to the subject was a bit shallow with grade inflation, leading to overestimation of their abilities.

Unfortunately for some, the very necessity of struggle convinces them that the subject is beyond their abilities. They come to believe that if the subject does not immediately stick or appear obvious, then they might as well give up because they will never “get it” along with a collapse of self-esteem.

Giving up on a subject early-on could allow them to switch directions in their education with less time lost and perhaps they would be relieved by that. In this case, giving up is just making a better choice based on experience. Regardless, students should be unburdened early on of the idea that struggle is a predictor of failure. In reality, most learning involves struggle at least to some extent.

Remedies for Struggle

Reading the assigned chapters several times is helpful. First pass, scan the content for a general idea of where the topic is going. A careful reading next with a focus on the example problems is very helpful. Try to understand the example problems and the reasoning presented. Next work on the problem set. If there is time, a third reading can help to cement in the concepts in the chapter. Before going on, work on the assigned problems. Open the solutions manual only if stuck. Struggle with the problem a bit. Success with solving assigned problems can be extremely helpful for a student.

If laboring alone isn’t helping, some schools have tutoring resources available. If not, there are often tutors who will charge on an hourly basis. A few hours of tutoring may be all it takes to get back on track. Sometimes there may be study partners from your class who can study with you. Then again, office hours with your prof or TA can help you over some rough spots. The point is- Struggle!

When I was writing exams, I would look at the example problems in the text as well as the assigned problems. I chose the problems to assign because I felt that they got to the heart of the concepts I held as important to the subject at the level of the content. I would use the assigned problems or those from lecture to write problems using different substances where a reaction would lead to an unambiguous answer. It’s ok to write some questions that require bit of logic to solve, but you can’t turn the exam into an intelligence test.

I once taught a course in chemistry for non-majors. These were students who had tried to get into Geology for Poets or Astronomy but couldn’t get in. They were trapped into taking chemistry for their science requirement for graduation! Early on, a few “representatives” of the class cornered me after a lecture and informed me that “everyone” expected true/false questions on the exams. Pausing, I said I would give them true/false questions, but they would get 1 point for a correct answer, 0 points for no answer, and -1 point for an incorrect answer. The lesson was that if you don’t know something it might be better to just be quiet. After a single exam they never mentioned true/false questions again.

Students eventually realize that chemistry is a highly vertical subject. The more advanced and interesting concepts are built upon or knitted together from those learned earlier. Later coursework will assume that the student has a grasp of content from earlier prerequisite courses. Thirty-one years later the 95 course evaluations from that Catholic women’s college still sit in an unopened envelope in my office.

Find a way to deal with anxiety. Exercise or find a councilor, psychologist, or psychiatrist for help. Anxiety is “druggable”, that is there are meds for it that are very effective. I’m sure there are exceptions, but a family practice doc can’t go very far down the road in treating anxiety. A psychiatrist can fine tune and mix the individual meds to best suit you. It really works.

Most importantly, the student should not EVER get behind in the coursework. It might even be better to drop the class than try to make up for much lost time. The normal rate of chemistry content flow to be absorbed is already high. To have to make up for time lost while also keeping up with the current content flow is often impossible.

Finally, consider that struggle just means that you have to put forth effort to learn. True learning means that your neurons are making new connections in your brain, not just images of something new. To have learned means that your brain has found a way to take diverse inputs and assemble them into part of your consciousness. Sometimes it isn’t easy, but persistence is the key.