Author Archives: gaussling

About gaussling

Gaussling is a senior scientist in the chemical business. He occasionally breaks glassware, spreads confusion and has been known to generate new forms of hazardous waste. Gaussling also digs aerospace, geology, and community theatre.

Cells Count on Earth

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Wow. A study was published calculating the number of living cells currently present on Earth and the number that have ever lived. The paper, titled “The geologic history of primary productivity,” was published in Current Biology, October 11, 2023. Sadly, the full article rests behind a paywall. But the abstract is open access so I will reproduce it here.

The lead author, Peter Crockford, is a geologist at Carleton University.

Abstract: The rate of primary productivity is a keystone variable in driving biogeochemical cycles today and has been throughout Earth’s past. 1 For example, it plays a critical role in determining nutrient stoichiometry in the oceans,2 the amount of global biomass,3 and the composition of Earth’s atmosphere.4 Modern estimates suggest that terrestrial and marine realms contribute near-equal amounts to global gross primary productivity (GPP).5 However, this productivity balance has shifted significantly in both recent times 6 and through deep time.7 ,8 Combining the marine and terrestrial components, modern GPP fixes ≈250 billion tonnes of carbon per year (Gt C year−1).5 ,9 ,10 ,11 A grand challenge in the study of the history of life on Earth has been to constrain the trajectory that connects present-day productivity to the origin of life. Here, we address this gap by piecing together estimates of primary productivity from the origin of life to the present day. We estimate that ∼1011–1012 Gt C has cumulatively been fixed through GPP (≈100 times greater than Earth’s entire carbon stock). We further estimate that 1039–1040 cells have occupied the Earth to date, that more autotrophs than heterotrophs have ever existed, and that cyanobacteria likely account for a larger proportion than any other group in terms of the number of cells. We discuss implications for evolutionary trajectories and highlight the early Proterozoic, which encompasses the Great Oxidation Event (GOE), as the time where most uncertainty exists regarding the quantitative census presented here.

Source: Peter W. Crockford 6, 7 , Yinon M. Bar On, Luce M. Ward, Ron Milo, Itay Halevy, Current Biology, October 11, 2023, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2023.09.040.

An article by Elizabeth Pennisi was published in Science which is a decent summary of the paper. The Science review reports that the number of cells alive today amounts to 1030 cells with most of them cyanobacteria. The total number of cells to ever have lived is estimated to be between 1039 and 1040. The article goes further and says that the resources on Earth cannot support more than 1041 cells.

Plumbing the Depths Just a Bit on the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict

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I do understand that speaking as a non-religious foreigner about the Israeli/Palestinian conflict is prone to misinterpretation and loaded with obstacles of history, sociology and religion. The whole topic is drenched in ethnic tropes and half-truths overprinted on reality. The US, UK, Europe and others have not exactly been the best friend of the people of the Middle East. Wariness is warranted. I get that. But we outsiders should try to understand the fundamentals of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict as objectively as possible. Choosing a side to support may be required, but at least it should be tempered with objective facts to the extent that it is possible.

Hamas is an acronym for the Islamic Resistance Movement, or (حركة المقاومة الإسلامية Ḥarakah al-Muqāwamah al-ʾIslāmiyyah) according to Wikipedia. It is a Sunni Islamist military and political movement which took control of Gaza in 2007. Hamas has never recognized the Israel–PLO Letters of Mutual Recognition or the Oslo Accords.

The Hamas Charter of 1988 set forth the beliefs and ideals of the Arab Palestinian organization. Many agree that the document was a bit harsh in places, namely outright calling for the destruction of Israel. The 2017 revision of the Hamas Charter supposedly tones down some of the sharp edges of the 1988 version.

The purpose and goals of Hamas rest firmly on Islam. Palestine and Islam are inseparable. They want it known that to conflict with Palestine is to conflict with Islam. From the 1988 Charter-

Article 3: The basic structure of the Islamic Resistance Movement consists of Moslems who have given their allegiance to Allah whom they truly worship, – “I have created the jinn and humans only for the purpose of worshipping” – who know their duty towards themselves, their families and country. In all that, they fear Allah and raise the banner of Jihad in the face of the oppressors, so that they would rid the land and the people of their uncleanliness, vileness and evils. “But we will oppose truth to vanity, and it shall confound the same; and behold, it shall vanish away.” (Prophets – verse 18).

Source: The Avalon Project, Yale Law School

The more recent charter seeks to discern their view of the difference between Zionism and Judaism. It makes a point of stating their tolerance of other religions, as long as Islam reigns supreme. Article 16 of the 2017 Charter states-

  1. Hamas affirms that its conflict is with the Zionist project not with the Jews because of their religion. Hamas does not wage a struggle against the Jews because they are Jewish but wages a struggle against the Zionists who occupy Palestine. Yet, it is the Zionists who constantly identify Judaism and the Jews with their own colonial project and illegal entity.

Source: Hamas Media Office.

On occasion you’ll hear a few interview guests in media say that Gaza is the world’s largest “open-air prison.” Or that Israel is operating an “apartheid” system. Ok, fine. That’s a spiraling haggle I’ll stay away from. But the question remains, how is the world to think about over 2 million Palestinians confined to a small area surrounded by walls, the sea and military coverage? Obviously, Israel has the right to defend itself against terrorism or civil unrest, but the Palestinians also have a right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Holding the conflict in place are the deep roots of incompatible cultures and years of war.

In a way, the Hamas attack on Israel resembles a prison riot. A population of ethnically united people who long ago exhausted their patience with tight confinement and no discernable future have staged yet another uprising. Like the old nuclear war metaphor, the opposing parties are standing in gasoline, each holding a match. Alert as the Israelis are, they missed signs of threat. The staging and execution of the Hamas attack was an actual surprise.

Retired General David Petraeus made some important observations on the situation. Paraphrasing, he said that even though the IDF is assured of retaking Gaza, they will then be faced with the dilemma of what to do next. The collapse of Hamas will only leave a power vacuum. Hamas will have conducted a mass-martyring taking the lives of Hamas fighters and thousands of Gazans. The dead will be strewn about in the crumbling remains of homes and businesses and the shattered economy of Gazan Palestinians.

Petraeus pointed out that the US has made many serious mistakes in that part of the world starting after 9/11. He said it’s time for all of us take lessons from this experience going forward.

Hamas is in a constant state of Jihad and are supported by those sharing the dream of an Islamic caliphate. Israel has built a homeland and has no intention of yielding territory. It doesn’t look like there is a possible win-win situation for peace between the current players. The trick for the world is to prevent a wider conflict from igniting.

Yet Another War

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The war between Hamas and Israel is in its 4th day. On Saturday, October 7, 2032, Hamas launched a highly organized commando and rocket attack into Israel from Gaza. Many in Israel have called it their 9/11. Accounts vary at present, but about 3000 rockets were launched into Israel in salvos around dawn resulting in the death of many noncombatants in Israel. This triggered Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system knocking down many of the incoming rockets.

The conflict between Israel and the Palestinians is longstanding and packed with history and nuance well beyond my understanding. One question can be asked, however, and that is- did Hamas not know that they will lose and set back any semblance of peace for a very long time? The IDF has the capacity to fight and win a much bigger war than this. In response to the attack by Hamas, much of Gaza will be pummeled to dust and noncombatants will suffer and die. The only question is, what cue will the Israelis need to stop the attack? When you are acting in revenge, how do you know when to stop?

Whatever passes for leadership in Gaza, Hamas I assume, must have known the inevitable outcome of this attack early on. That would make this desperate action a kind of martyrdom. Martyrdom is meant to rally support for a cause. Could part of it be the recent easing of tensions between Israel and some states on the Saudi peninsula? This would not be in Hamas’ interest. Just a guess.

The participation of the Iranians, if any, may be a part of this. Their leadership is rabidly anti-Zionist and very cunning.

In any case, I suppose the thinking was if you are going to martyr, do it big. Global attention would be the goal and they got it.

Those Wacky Republicans!

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Yet again, very serious and doctrinaire House Republicans apply their skills in the art of clusterf**kery. The act of legislating and otherwise steering the big federal boat is secondary to their acquisition of power. A core of ultraorthodox conservatives called the Freedom Caucus is tangled in an internecine battle for control and don’t seem to care much about collateral damage. The roots of this group go back to the delightful Tea Party in 2015.

What the Freedom Caucus may be doing is laying the groundwork for Project 2025: Presidential Transition Project. This plan, organized by The Heritage Foundation, seeks to deconstruct or reorganize the administrative branch of the federal government and populate it with vetted, politically reliable staff. Winning seats in Congress or the Whitehouse is now deemed insufficient.

House Republicans leading the way.

This plan from The Heritage Foundation is the result of a very extensive collaboration of groups from all over the right-wing. I don’t think that anyone will deny that the federal bureaucracy is too big and too slow. But what Project 2025 plans to do is to apply a conservative foundation of politically reliable personnel. There would be a political test to pass prior to getting a government job. The effect will be to polarize the government in a way that would be quite difficult to change. They want a Republican America set in stone and they plan on starting the first day of the next Republican administration. We know this because they have written a book on how they plan to do it.

“The project is the effort of a broad coalition of conservative organizations that have come together to ensure a successful administration begins in January 2025. With the right conservative policy recommendations and properly vetted and trained personnel to implement them, we will take back our government.”

Source: The Heritage Foundation.

Meanwhile, Emperor Trumpus Maximus continues to blunder forward with promises of MAGA, all the while trampling over the garden of civilization. It’s like watching Godzilla destroying 1950’s Tokyo while a jabbering and ineffectual media makes sure to capture and replay every delicious morsel of bad adult behavior.

As always, Trump continues to rack up hours of free TV coverage. They call it news, but it’s really a nonstop freak show. The headliner, DJT, is a genius at attracting big-media coverage. Trump’s legacy is now totally out of his control. He has fumbled his business empire to the edge of extinction and his political career is disintegrating. What a dangerous idiot.

The Russians are gleefully watching our Republican House of Representatives implosion. It validates Putin’s (and China’s) claim that the US is a declining empire in moral disarray and that democracy can’t be made to work. The upcoming 2024 elections offer the hope of declining US and NATO backing of Ukraine. All Putin has to do is outlive Ukraine’s ability to wage war.

Low Water Slows Traffic Through the Panama Canal

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The US Energy Information Agency, EIA, released a notice about low water levels from a historic drought in the Panama Canal region is slowing the passage of large ships. In particular, the Very Large Gas Carrier (VLGC) vessels are restricted which affects the transport and price of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG). According to the Panama Canal Authority (APC), water levels in the canal are at their lowest levels since 1995 and are expected to stay low if the drought is prolonged.

The core of the problem is low water levels at Gatun Lake. This lake is a key part of the system. It is an artificial reservoir that sits between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans providing water and power for the lock system. Due to a prolonged dry season and below normal precipitation, the APC has enacted water saving regulations.

Source: Charts from EIA

The largest fraction of US-provided hydrocarbons carried through the canal by VLGC vessels is propane which is used for petrochemical applications and highly seasonal heating demand. Increased demand for US propane in East Asia has put pressure on the canal due to increased vessel demand.

The canal has two types of locks- Panamax and Neopanamax. Ships are rated according to their size and draft as seen in the EIA graphic below.

Source: Graphic from EIA.

The base cost of transit for Panamax VLGC vessels is $300,000. A smaller gas or chemical carrier using the Panamax locks has a base cost of $60.000. The low water problem has restricted the flow of traffic through the canal to just 32 transits per day- 10 for the Neopanamax and 22 for the Panamax. Other routes to Asia are around the Cape of Good Hope or through the Suez Canal.

Source: Graphic from EIA.

Due to low water, restrictions have led to a waiting time of 13 to 17 days to transit the canal during August. According to Reuters 8/22/23, 125 booked and non-booked vessels were waiting to pass. As of this date, restrictions allow vessels with a maximum 44 foot draft. According to EIA a 6 foot decrease in draft can lead to a 40 % reduction in cargo.

Big Prize for Quantum Spots

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Poltroon University will soon host a lecture by Big Prize Laureate Dr. Professor Guss Badeen of the Swiss Federal Institute of Quantum Spot Studies in Outerlocken, Switzerland. Dr. Badeen began his work at the Soviet All-Union Agriculture and Artillery Institute in Pissov-on-Don, USSR. After the entertaining implosion of the Soviet Union, Academician Badeen made his way to Switzerland where he is now Emeritus Langweilig Professor of Quantum Agriculture. He will speak on the topic of “My Journey to Sweden with Quantum Spots.”

Admission is free but due to limited seating in the Alderaan auditorium, tickets will be required. Tickets can be obtained online at poltroon_univ.org/QSpot.

Poltroon University is located in Guapo, Arizona, adjacent to the scenic Desiccated Wasteland National Monument. Poltroon is a selective private illiberal arts institution serving the educational needs of junior varsity students. On campus visits are welcome.

Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman Win 2023 Nobel Prize for Medicine and Physiology

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Congratulations are in order to Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman for their Nobel Prize winning work with a COVID-19 vaccine using modified mRNA. The image below shows the component changes that were made to the uridine nucleotide. The change to the middle molecule was that they swapped positions of a carbon and a nitrogen atom in the ring and moved a double bond. In the third molecule they added a methyl (H3C-) group to one nitrogen of the pyrimidine ring.

Source: Frontiers in Cell and Developmental Biology 04, Nov. 2021, vol 9-2022 Volume 9 – 2021 https://doi.org/10.3389/fcell.2021.78942. Graphics reproduced from journal and modified by Gaussling.

In general, if you can change the shape of a molecule, particularly with peptide or nucleotide polymer molecules, you will change the physical properties and the reactivity properties. The Psi nucleotide adds another hydrogen bonding group into the mRNA. These changes add up to lowering the immune response to the vaccine.

The other noteworthy aspect is the very short time it took to get vaccines on the market. This was only possible because decades of research in molecular biology continuously advanced the state of the art. The various funding agencies whose support of basic research over the long haul deserve thanks as well for the timely production of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccine.

The Politics of Due Process

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We’ve been treated to unceasing wails of unfairness by #45 in relation to his mounting legal woes. It’s all politics, he proclaims, meant to disrupt his presidential campaign. I have to agree that politics are definitely involved- the politics of democracy and due process.

Democracy does not derive from some natural physical law. It is something that we allot to ourselves by consensus and the axiom of certain inalienable rights. In its purest form, democracy is a type of political structure focused on the will of the majority and the inherent rights of the individual. In our democracy, elected representatives put laws into place by consensus. Admittedly, it is sort of janky and prone to abuse. But, in the end, it always manages to right itself after a storm. In truth, our system of laws is inherently political by the definition below.

Politics, noun

pol·​i·​tics ˈpä-lə-ˌtiks 

plural in form but singular or plural in construction

1a: the art or science of government

b: the art or science concerned with guiding or influencing governmental policy

c: the art or science concerned with winning and holding control over a government

Source: Merriam Webster

Our system of laws is subdivided into many areas. One of them specifies the layers of fair treatment by the judicial system. We call it “due process.” All of us are entitled to due process under the law, even ex-presidents.

In the course of due process, #45 has been indicted 4 times resulting in 91 felony counts. Did this result from political action? Yes indeed- the politics of democracy under the lawful guidelines of due process. Evidence of wrong-doing was presented to a grand jury of citizens 4 times and 4 times indictments were issued from 4 jurisdictions. “Mr. ex-President, this is what due process looks like. Yes, it is the politics of democracy you idiot.”

Screw the GUI- Bring Back the Buttons and Knobs

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During a recent trip to Texas, I rented a car as one does. It was a 2023 Jeep something-or-other. What kind of Jeep? A white one. It turns out that I own and drive a 1998 Jeep Cherokee. Obviously, there have been continuous upgrades over the years. One of the “improvements” is the graphic user interface, GUI, controlling the radio, ventilation and navigation. Maybe some other things- I couldn’t tell. Annoyingly, the thing searches for your phone as soon as the car powers up and complains when it can’t make a connection. It’s the goddamned internet of everything slithering up around my ankles insisting on my attention.

At the risk of sounding like a Luddite, I have to say that I find the trend towards automotive graphic user interfaces quite annoying. Certain features that were once controlled by knobs or buttons are now controlled on the GUI. If you want to adjust the air conditioning while driving, there is no longer a knob to grab without taking your eyes off the road. A knob can be turned on bumpy roads without looking at it. A GUI requires that you make a precise finger contact with a screen and not have it slide around.

Auto manufacturers have known forever that car customers are like baboons when it comes to buying cars. Any shiny new thing on the vehicle will draw their attention and increase the odds of a sale. The GUI in a new car will attract customers like flies to a dung heap, they thought. The appeal of automotive modernism is a sure thing for car makers. It’s true.

The appearance of the GUI in automobiles was no doubt preceded by a highly focused sales campaign by the electronics industry. I can just see it. Conference rooms packed with C-suite executives watching slick presentations touting the inevitability of the automotive GUI and the excitement of customers swarming dealerships waving cash at the sales team. What a wondrous future it is that lies before us. How can we cram every bell and whistle into these blessed touch screens? How can we print money even faster?

I am making a stand here and now to keep the control knob and the button, well known by the ancients to be reliable and simple. So it was and so it shall be.

The GUI is something that I will resist until I move from being on the top of the grass to 6 feet below the grass. Ok, I guess I am being a Luddite here but I don’t care.

Sabine Hossenfelder

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Sabine Hossenfelder has become a bit of a star. She has been producing a regular YouTube video called “Science without the gobbledygook.” She is presently a researcher at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy. She is a quantum physicist and mathematician with 1 million YouTube subscribers. Her videos are about topical quantum and particle physics with some cosmology thrown in. She brings up issues under debate in the physics community. It is very interesting and thought provoking.

It turns out that she has a very dry wit which I for one appreciate. Every episode she’ll get a phone call from a red desk phone with a mock voice on the other side talking about some off the wall subject. Sometimes it is Elon Musk griping about something. The production value of her programming is quite good because she has people helping with that. It all adds up to something interesting and amusing for we sciency people.