Category Archives: CounterCurrent

Is Private Sector Buggery Better than Gov’t Incompetence?

Healthcare in the USA is wildly expensive and is growing more so at a rate that exceeds inflation. This is well known. The battle for healthcare reform in DC is bogging down under the weight of private interests and infighting.  Soaring rhetoric from both left and right is mistaken for intellection and reason. It is evident that the fix to the problem was started before there was a clear understanding of the variables.

If you look at healthcare as a manufacturing activity with labor, capital equipment, and materials as input and some sort of health benefit as the output, you can start to see what cost inputs may begin to dominate. Of course this is very simplistic, but hang with me.

A round of health care involves attention by highly trained and expensive labor. A health care worker can only attend to one person at a time, though that worker may have many patients under his/her supervision. If a patient is stabilized, the care worker can also attend to other patients and achieve some sort of parallel production for better cost containment. In the heirarchy of medicine, the docs are managers who provide oversight to nurses who manage the patients. Docs also do consultations, examinations, and perform surgery, so they are not pure people managers- they get their hands dirty. Docs are a unique class of management all by themselves.

To exaggerate the effects of labor costs, imagine if you had a doc or a nurse picking strawberries, how expensive would the strawberries be? Even if Dr. Picker was very fast, the berries would be expensive. To have reasonably priced berries you have to find workers who will do the work at a lower wage. Lower wages derive from an abundance of willing labor.

In the end, medical schools control the scarcity of physicians by controlling enrollment. And the enrollment is defined by the curriculum, faculty size, and the particulars of the coursework- availability of clinical experiences, lab space, equipment, etc. But, you have to wonder what would happen to medical costs if there was less labor scarcity.

The most important resource a medical school has, other than faculty, might be the university hospital. What if more hospitals had medical schools rather than the other way around? I don’t think that the existing medical schools have absorbed all of the bright candidates out there.

Health care is a kind of economic chimera. The recipient of medical treatment is not the person in control of the costs. Physicians prescribe the type and extent of resources and the insurance companies release the funds. The medical establishment receives payment for services irrespective of outcome. Insurance companies profit by denial of services. The patient is left to sort out how to get the best value from available treatment.

American medicine is very much influenced by technological triumphalism.  New and expensive materials and devices hit the market all of the time. The question every potential marketer of medically related items must ask is- will the docs use or prescribe it? The most powerful instrument in medicine is the physician’s pen. The question for drug and equipment makers is, how do you get the docs to use their pens to your advantage?

The view that a disease or an injury is a sales opportunity is what drives for-profit clinics and hospitals. Without chronic disease, accidents, and sporadic outbreaks of mayhem, growth and profit in the healthcare industry might be more static.

So in the end, who do you trust? Do you put your faith in the private sector whose avowed goal is to profit on your illness? Or do you trust the government which, though accountable to its citizens, is prone to profound organizational inertia and a lackluster draw to talented staff?  This is the balance of opposing forces the fools in Washington are trying to sort out. Howard help us all.

Out of the ditch and on the road

I have decided to continue scribbling in this blog. Th’ Gaussling has cut loose some psychic energy sinks that have been bogging me down.  There are too many problematic characters in my work life to welcome them gladly into a volunteer life as well. Many of us (i.e., large, irritable animals) aren’t cut out to be happy and compliant volunteers.

Writing is something I need to do on a regular basis. Writing in a private diary isn’t nearly exciting enough. I enjoy the trickle of commentary and the colorful characters out there in the blogosphere.

The Bitter Barn

At the recent San Francisco APA meeting, a call was made to define bitterness as a pathological condition. The proposed acronym is PTED – Post Traumatic Embitterment Disorder. I guess it covers the range from pissy to postal. Maybe our pharma friends can find an enzyme to inhibit for the treatment of PTED. Better yet, perhaps there is an animal model out there- say, badgers or wolverines. Sounds like a market opportunity!

Freeman Dyson- Climate Skeptic

An excellent entry into interesting and high quality articles on the net can be found at Arts & Letters Daily. I found an interview of physicist Freeman Dyson. In the interview, the writer is trying to understand how someone of Dyson’s stature could be skeptical of anthropogenic global warming. Basically, Dyson is skeptical of the models used and is skeptical of the assumption that the pre-industrial climate is automatically a valid baseline climate. Dyson accepts that there may be more desirable climate scenarios and that climate change is not automatically bad.

What is lost in most of the public discussion is the history of climate over the past million or so years. The fossil and geological record does not support the assumption that the global climate is static. We’re presently 10 or 12 thousand years past the latest glaciation episode in a series of glaciation episodes. As I recall, the interglacial periods in North America have averaged something like 10-15 thousand years.

What happens to atmospheric CO2 levels as the temperature rises or falls? Does rising atmospheric CO2 lead to a temperature rise or is it a result of a temperature rise? I have not encountered an adequate explanation taking into account the temperature sensitivity of carbonate equilibrium.

CO2 is not an inert substance. It reacts strongly with water to form carbonate.  Obviously CO2 will get absorbed by the biosphere. Do the atmospheric models take the various carbon sinks into account? Perhaps a reader knows.

Water vapour is a potent greenhouse gas and is certainly more abundant than CO2. It must account for some aspect of atmospheric temperature change. Do cloud aerosols and sea spray absorb significant CO2? It’s kinda complex.

Epiphany at Joe’s Crab Shack

Whilst knoshing on broiled tilapia and shrimp at Joe’s Crab Shack last night, I innocently offered the question “Who recorded the song that is playing?” As I washed down my entree with ice water and neatly dabbed my napkin at the corner of my mouth, our friend’s teenage son (who was sitting quietly across the table from me) twiddled his wireless device and a minute later handed it over to me.

As I looked at the display it slowly dawned on me what I was viewing. The device had sampled the music and provided a list of song titles (with the artists) that matched the sample!  WTF!? 

Crimony! I need to get out more. I had no flippin’ clue that this capability was available for use outside the NSA!

There is a saying that any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable with magic. That was the case for me last night.

Talibanistan

Holy smokes. Who’da thought that Pakistan’s western frontier would fold like a lawn chair to an invasion of jabbering, hairy, religious freaks? Someone has commented that while most countries have an army, Pakistan was really an army that had a country. It is difficult to understand the dynamics of this part of the world and how Pakistan could allow the Taliban warriers such a generous incursion.

North Korea is another army that has a country. As bad as the Pakistan situation is and no matter how belligerent the Iranians are, I suspect it will be North Korea who pops off the first nuclear warshot since Nagasaki. The question is, will it be against Japan, South Korea, or the US Navy? 

Then there is China which is apparently in possession of anti-ship ballistic missile technology (ASBM). This capability basically nullifies US superiority in force projection in the China Sea by our carrier fleet. US surface ships are helpless against attack by smart ballistic missiles raining in at Mach 10 or whatever the particular hypervelocity is.

May Linkfest

A friend sent me the link to Wolfram|Alpha  just a while ago. So far it seems to be a bit lean in textbook-style content in the chemistry area. For instance, when you enter “aromatic solvents” into the dialog box, it returns with

Wolfram|Alpha isn’t sure what to do with your input.

But if you type in “toluene”, suddenly it is the CRC and is flush with data. The stated goals of the Wolfram|Alpha developers are-

Wolfram|Alpha’s long-term goal is to make all systematic knowledge immediately computable and accessible to everyone. We aim to collect and curate all objective data; implement every known model, method, and algorithm; and make it possible to compute whatever can be computed about anything. Our goal is to build on the achievements of science and other systematizations of knowledge to provide a single source that can be relied on by everyone for definitive answers to factual queries.

I do not yet know enough about this resource, but it seems to be a data engine rather than a prose engine.

Landscheidt Cycles Research is a site devoted to the Planetary Influence Theory. This theory pertains to the possible gravitational influence of the planets on solar cycles. it is worth a look.

Watts Up With That? is a blog concerned with global climate issues. The blogger and many of the commentors seem to have their facts straight about global climate change. The site is very data intensive.

If you are a scientist or manage scientists, it is worth considering the file drawer effect.

An online NMR predictor can be found at nmrdb. In my experience the splitting and chemical shifts seem to be in the “not too awful” range.

Biohackers

A recent article in the WSJ solemnly described several amateur biologists who were doing simple molecular biology experiments in their homes. Naturally, this has not escaped the attention of certain authorities and certain deeply conservative establishment news corporations.

What is distressing is the reflexive conclusion that their activity is automatically dangerous and likely to be symptomatic of malevolent intent.  It is common for those in power to look over their ramparts and view the world as a spectrum of threats. And so it is in this case that distrust has arisen and reporters are using the words “weapons of mass destruction” or “ebola virus”. 

Could it not be that some people outside of the heavily in-bred fields of science have a genuine and scholarly interest in molecular biology but no interest in grad school?

The entrance to scientific activity is highly formalized with layers of degree requirements, preferred pedigree, institutional infrastructure, regulatory complications, and a mafia-like oligarchy that disperses the resources and opportunity that is so necessary for buoyancy in science.

How does a creative amateur scientist get to take a jouney of discovery in a field that is institutionally inaccessible to them? And how does an interested individual who is clever enough to conduct experiments deal with a government whose reflex is to see WMD and terrorists behind every lilac bush? There are serious civil liberties problems here that pit the brain stem against the frontal cortex.

It is in the nature of some people to be distrustful and find threats behind every shrub. It has been my observation that people who default into a distrustful posture are very often not trustworthy themselves. The distrustful often invoke slippery slope arguments as rhetorical devices to block their opponents move into new conceptual turf. What the distrustful and paranoid fail to see is that we live every minute of every day on multiple slippery slopes, yet we somehow survive and thrive.

“Don’t Even Taste Like Sewage”

I spent 4 1/2 hours saturday touring our town’s water system from both ends. It was quite a detailed tour and, since it involved chemicals, how could I not tag along?

We began with the sewer reclamation plant first. Lots of interesting details here. Turns out that one of the big problems to running a waste treatment plant has to do with keeping large debris out of the pumps- rags, underwear, shoes, plastic parts, etc.  Once you get past the shock of learning what your fellow citizens can and do flush down the toilet, it is plain to see that a bit of money spent on screening out the the big chunks is returned in the form of reduced down time and pump repair costs.

Our little hamlet of 6,000 souls sends 450,000 gallons of waste water to the reclamation plant on an average day. The flow peaks at about 8 am every day in the form of a sudden 5-6 x increase in flowrate. It takes about 90 minutes for an average volume (i.e., a flush) of wastewater to get to the plant. A lot of groggy citizens hop into the shower at around 6:30 am.

After the incoming stream passes through a grit removing station at the entrance, it is lifted to the first treatment operation for aeration and fermentation. This is the physical high point in the process, meaning that the stream is subsequently transferred by gravity for the remaining process steps.

I won’t go into further process details other than to say that the final step prior to discharge into the stream is a sanitizing step where the effluent is exposed to a large jolt of UV radiation. At this point in our tour, the plant manager dipped a sampler into the flow and withdrew one liter of clear, colorless liquid with a few strings of algae floaters. Only too eager demonstrate his faith that the water was sanitary, he dipped a finger into the effluent, put it into his mouth and exclaimed with a grin as wide as his mullet

“It don’t even taste like sewage!” 

As he passed the sample around so others could share in the experience, I wandered over to the control panel and feigned interest in the LCD display. The UV just renders the wee beasties non-viable. Their little microbial carcasses are still there. Pathogen free it may well be, I didn’t have the stomach to taste it. Yes, I know that microbes are everywhere and that our notions of what constitutes “clean” are merely a fantasy. But I just couldn’t do it.