Category Archives: CounterCurrent

Libertarians and Epidemics

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If the USA were more substantially libertarian in construction and demeanor, how would we respond to the arrival of an epidemic or pandemic of some nasty pathogen like swine flu? If the USA were decentralized into quanta of individual market units, each responsible for his/her own well being, how could the spread of contagion be averted?

Would a libertarian republic be philosophically opposed to collectivist activity like combining resources to marshal a defense against a virus. Or, would the Austrian-school economists brush off the event as nothing more than a Malthusian disturbance in the direction of a much needed equilibrium between resources and population? If you cannot afford to protect yourself, then you are lazy or sadly unlucky. In any case, you’re on your own.

Would a Libertarian system first act to protect property and guns? Would libertarian economists issue a statement condemning collectivism and promoting the rights of individuals to buy as much Lysol, duct tape, plastic drop cloths, and surgical masks as the market will allow? Perhaps a Libertarian President (whatever that means) would put a team of economists on a pandemic, or better yet, the lowest bidding epidemiologists available from Craigs list?

Libertarians make a good deal of noise about the horrors of taxation and their unflinching admiration for the genius of the marketplace, property, and the right to stockpile guns and ammo.  I agree, we’re paying too much in taxes. Government is way too big. And the dynamics of the market do provide lots of cool stuff for better living. True enough.

But the market is like a stomach (I had a better analogy, but it was rather unwholesome). It only knows that it is hungry. The stomach has no brain. The stomach only wants more. The stomach did not invent antibiotics, polyethylene, Buicks, antacid, jet engines, or bikinis. But the stomach did facilitate the invention of each of these items. We need a market mentality, but we also need an overarching sense of direction. We need a market that can sense and avoid driving off a Malthusian cliff.

Civilization is about infrastructure. And part of the infrastructure that the country as a whole can provide is biotechnology.  Biotechnology was not developed by Warren Buffett or Ronald Reagan or the legions of celebrated MBA’s. It was slowly developed by publically financed university institutions over many years of apparently irrelevant research projects. University educated scientists were hired by private and public corporations who began to find ways of marketing biomedical technology.  It evolved into molecular biology and medicine and eventually commercialized as a result of front funding by millions of skeptical and myopic taxpayers over several generations. Yes, the market has a big part in this in terms of the rational distribution of goods.

As a result of all of the initial “collectivism” through publically funded science, we have a first class infrastructure (the CDC) that is capable of monitoring the onset and progress of contagious diseases. This system funded originally by the public is able to mobilize vaccines and small molecule medicines to prevent suffering and the spread of disease.  It is able to coordinate efforts and resources to benefit even the chronically irritable Libertarians.

Liptonian Symbolism

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Never one to allow reason to interfere with sentimentality, my blackened heart is softened somewhat by the recent shipment of Lipton Tea bags delivered to Th’ Gaussling from an online admirer via the US Postal Service. 

The tea in this gift shall be symbolically applied to the local waterway, but not before being used to formulate some refreshing iced beverage via aqueous extraction.  A vessel filled with aqueous goodness (OPE-Our Pure Essence) will be charged with the anthocyanin and alkaloid laden forest litter for extended exposure to solar radiation. Brownian motion will be relied upon to disperse the colloidal value away from the biomass.

Once so processed, the fortifying beverage will be passed through a pair of kidneys as a symbol of my dark contempt for the IRS. This nephro-raffinate will be discharged into the municipal fluid collection system for a kind of Nicene rectification that will provide further philosophical processing of the symbolic gesture. Finally, after the Liptonian fluids have been subjected to Libertarian aeration and Calvinist filtration, the clarified symbol will be discharged into the river for its turbulent hero’s journey to the drinking water inlets of New Orleans and beyond.

GOP Apparachiki Rattling Sticks in Bucket of Swill

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It certainly seems as though the GOP is orchestrating a pageant of contrived television events meant to draw in followers who may have gone astray. Tea parties and theatrical outrage over alerts issued from homeland security. Broadcasters find this kind of thing irresistable and, like stray cats, are drawn to lap up footage from a saucer of engineered controversy.

Tejas Governor Perry will probably have to eat his words about independence. If he is smart, he’ll realize that crow is best eaten while still warm.

What is striking about post-election GOP behavior is the magnitude of the mean spiritedness and the heat of the invective spewing from the right. These people are pissed off about their role as the minority party.

The fact of power is the act of power.  What is so telling about the character of the GOP core is that despite the mandate of the last election, GOP soldiers continue to vociferously spout expired doctrine despite the will of the majority of voters. Contrary to the interest of voting citizens, these people are gaming every rule, squirting glue in all the locks, and dropping flaming bags of political shit on every doorstep they can find.

This is a valuable insight into the party of “character and values”. Instead, they have betrayed themselves as the party of “win at all costs and take no prisoners”.

Green Propellants

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Notes from the Field-

There appears to be a movement in the gun and rocket propellant field away from perchlorates.  Propellants that are comprised of substances that pose minimal potential for the dispersal of adverse and environmentally persistant substances are referred to as “green propellants”.  Substances that qualify as adverse include arylamines, perchlorates, and certain rheology modifiers. Substances that are thought to be endocrine disrupters have been specially targeted for replacement.

While it may seem absurd to attempt to produce a weapon system having a reduced toxic signature, the  fact is that between practice projectiles and warshots, a good deal of hazardous residues are released in the use of these devices. Reducing the chemical environmental insult is a step in the direction of reduced collateral damage.

One expert in the area of perchlorates said that people with adequate iodine intake shouldn’t worry about perchlorate contamination of water. Hmmm. While that may be true, it sounds like a poor basis for policy.

Mea Culpa

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Today I found myself attending a talk on mortar propellants. It was delivered by a shy young woman who looked to be no older than a high school senior- she looked like a babysitter you’d hire to stay at home with the kid while you treated the wife unit to a night out on the town. Yet she was an expert in mortar shell propellants.

Next, I attended a talk on flare compositions delivered by a tiny woman who could barely see above the podium.

I rounded the day off by attending a talk by a woman who presented her results on igniter design and in developing a new explosive propellant manufacturing process. During the Q&A, my questions on ignition mechanisms were answered by yet another woman who was exceedingly knowlegeable in this field.

What I have noticed is that the gun and rocket propellant R&D field is populated with women to a much greater degree than the industrial organic or organometallic chemistry waters in which I normally swim.

Before you fire a rude comment alleging some sexist malfeasance, please understand that I was raised by a single mother as the eldest of 5 kids. That, and having witnessed the birth of my child, I have no doubt whatsoever about the robustness and Ability of women.

That women do this isn’t news. What is noteworthy is the extent to which my ignorance remains so great at age 51. My caveman misconception was that explosives chemistry would not appeal to women. I had mistakenly and foolishly assumed that a career with explosives was largely a male domain and driven by male fascination with power. Holy cats. I was quite mistaken.

I seem to be wrong about  a lot of things these days.

Was Abe Lincoln Wrong?

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When I hear the  snide comments of Gingrich and Limbaugh or witness the rebirth of Tom DeLay, I begin to wonder if President Abraham Lincoln wasn’t mistaken in trying to keep the Union together. Southern Conservatism with its fanatical Baptist dominionist wingnut demographic has even perverted basic conservative values of thrift and small government. It’s expensive military fetish and its efficient marshaling of extreme nationalism have cast precious little light on the complex problems of our time, just a devisive heat.

The epoch of the “Bush II Wild-Assed Excursion in American Civilization” has lead to the present disintegration of the GOP from the Grand Old Party to the Confederate Splintered Old Party of serial filibustering demagogues.

Perhaps we should set aside a few states for the Southern Conservatives to set up a Confederacy where lassaiz faire and the Southern Baptist Convention can run unfettered in the shady green pastures of God’s marketplace. Hell, throw in Texas for good measure- except for Houston. Houston would be a independent city-state a la Hong Kong. Newt can be the new Jeff Davis of the Confederacy of Theocratic States.

Let the southern conservatives luv each other up in their own country. They can preach their sticky doctrine to a ready made choir all day long. It would be worth having a Republican Homeland seccession if it will shut the bastards up.

Thoughts on the Panic of 2008

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While the congress and the various media are grinding their battle axes and taking swings at each other, I hope that we all remember that the absence of suitable regulations on the financial markets is really not the cause of the Panic of 2008. The cause of this trainwreck can be found in the practices and mindsets of certain elite players in the market. This is a pathology of the marketplace, our culture, and ultimately, of human behavior.  

Blaming government for the excesses of the market is like blaming your doctor for your riotous and drunken merrymaking.  In the end, the participants in this orgiastic financial frenzy should be called to account for themselves in front of something like an angry mob. The rest of the herd needs to cull the troublesome members, either through the courts or through social stigma like excommunication or shame.

Obviously, the government was asleep at the wheel in its regulatory duties. But to some extent it was plainly maneuvered out of the way of Wall Street.  While we are hurling epithets at congress, we should not forget that the boards of directors and executives of the troubled corporations have neglected their fiduciary responsibilities to the shareholders. These are the same smug bastards who will hammer you if you miss a mortgage payment. Surely they should be held to a similar accountability as a mortgagee.

As long as we are considering accountability, the show business component of this is the broadcast media (the Fourth Estate). The commercialization and show business aspect of news reporting can only lead to structural biases that favor the needs of the corporation. If news and commentary is regarded as entertainment (ie., Mad Money, Rush Limbaugh, etc), then it is inevitable that it will be conducted like any other carnival enterprise- it becomes a traveling freakshow meant to attract the eyes of a gawking but uncritical public.

It is not in the nature of corporate governance to accept divisions that are not profitable. Important but dry news will be replaced with anything that meets the definition of “compelling”.  Panem et circenses. Celebrity becomes a credential and the drama of controversy becomes more important than the particulars of the case.

If the information feedback loop to other members of the marketplace is filtered by self-serving players, then the equilibrium is fundamentally shifted in favor of the owners of the filter. Inescapably, the broadcast media are part of this whole Panic phenomenon.

Questions about health care costs

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When one goes to the doctor for an examination or to have an office procedure performed, notes are made on the patients chart and procedure codes are recorded. Somewhere, a person enters these codes to the accounting system which then makes a ledger entry and generates an invoice.

Here is a crude guess (factor of 2 estimate) as to the labor costs involved for a 2-Doc office in a quiet town, nominally- 2 MD’s @ $250 k each, 2 PA’s at ~$35 k each, 2 office clerks @$25 k each. Add up the salaries plus 25 % for taxes and benefits, it adds to $775,000 per year in direct labor costs.

If we assume the mortgage or rent is $3000 per month, insurance on the facility is $8,000 per year (a guess), and utilities are $5000 per year (a guess), we can add another $49,000 bringing the total to $824,000 per year. 

Spread over 52 weeks at 48 hours per week, the overhead cost runs at $330.01 per hour. If the docs make $150,000 per year, the overhead comes down to $229.97 per hour. In a town away from the major population centers, the real cost is probably between the two numbers. In major markets, the costs may be 2x or more higher than the scribbling I have proposed.

At $330/hr, the labor overhead cost is $5.50 per minute. At $230/hr, the labor overhead cost is $3.83 per minute. This simple mindedly assumes that the docs are running the clinic and not a hospital. So, while a patient rattles away about a dream from the previous night, or gives a recitation of every manner of ache and pain in the last 5 years, the clock is ticking away. It is easy to see why most offices have multiple examination rooms and the doc spends all day popping in and out of these rooms. It is driven by the need to keep up the rate of production.

A practice is a business and there is a reasonable expectation of some kind of net profit. If in this labor intensive business the previous overhead costs consume 60 % of the cash flow (a guess), then the 40 % balance covers materials, misc costs, and profit. So, the high number may be more like $550/hr to afford a 15 % net profit. The low estimate would be $383/hr to give the 15 % net profit.

I don’t know what the numbers really are. If anything, they are likely to be understated. I just did a back of the napkin scientific wild-assed guess (a SWAG).

Now, for the patient add to this the cost of testing, prescription drugs,and procedures by specialists who are likely to have expensive machinery as well as a high hourly rate. All of the parties involved have preset costs and margin requirements for their services. For the patient, there are few options for a Wal-Mart approach with less expensive care services.  The entire system has evolved to soak up the resources provided by insurance companies and the government.

Ultimately, the patient is a minor decision maker when it comes to medical services. Medicine has become an extractive industry where the sick person owns the land but not the mineral rights.  To a great extent, the doc is the gatekeeper as to what service will be needed and the insurance company is the gate keeper on the funds. It is up to the patient to try to connect the two parties in a dispute.

How can we expect to reign in health care costs when there is little option to find alternative services that are affordable?  Increasingly, we have champagne services on a beer budget.

There is no option for selecting a Ford sedan when the dealer only provides Mercedes. If medical schools and medical boards have an exclusive grip on the supply of MD’s in the market, how can the cost of medical labor be brought into line with the needs of the population bell curve? To what extent are MD’s over trained? Any at all?

And, to what extent do caregivers now turn ambiguous cases over to specialists or MRI’s where before they would have tackled it with more modest means? Perhaps litigation is a sort of ratchet that makes testing that was once optional now manditory.

People who provide critical and life saving services in our society should be rewarded in a manner commensurate with the contribution. And we should be willing to pay for such service. But for this service to have grown into a massive business machine that harvests cash from the marketplace, but is somehow immune from equilibrium forces in the market that everyone else is subject to is grossly unfair and cannot be sustained.

UnaTed the Bomber

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An interesting piece of critical analysis of Ted Kaczynski (the Unabomber) and his manifesto can be found at The Technium. Much time has been dedicated to the pathological aspects of Kaczynski and his violent acts. But perhaps not so much energy has been expended on whether or not his writings made any sense in any context.

… the Unabomber is right that choices which begin as optional can over time become less so. First, there are certain technologies (say sewage treatment, vaccinations, traffic lights) that were once matters of choice but that are now mandated and enforced by the system. Then, there are other systematic technologies, like automobiles, which are self-reinforcing. Thousands of other technologies are intertwined into these systemic ones, making it hard for a human to avoid. The more that participate, the more essential it becomes.  Living without these embedded technologies requires more effort, or at least more deliberate alternatives.

The author points out that Kaczynski was concerned about the spread of what Jim Kunstler might call “technological triumphalism” and the lack of options we have in participation. Kaczynski was so concerned that he spent much of his life in a one room shack in the mountains of Montana.  But he did not live like a cave man. There was a certain minimum level of technology he was comfortable with.

Another person might have fashioned these ideas into the core of a brilliant academic or writing career. But for reasons or illness unique to Kaczynski, he followed a darker path by choosing to lob grenades from the margins. No matter how compelling the logic, we need to have social intelligence to temper the indulgence of violence in persuasion.

Unix Time Celebration

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My wierd friend Les in the Bay Area advises me that a unique horological event has come and gone. It was a special moment in Unix Time that occured on Friday, 13 February, 2009. The origin on the Unix time line is planted just after midnight, 1 January, 1970 and accumulates in units of seconds. Notably, on 2/13/09 at 23:31:30 (UTC), the Unix clock registered “1234567890”. 

This event was unique enough in some circles to lead Unix Time enthusiasts to celebrate with parties and revelry in many parts of the world. I’m sure they partied like brain damaged test monkeys.

Naturally, Th’ Gaussling was not invited or even advised of this special event. [Update:  This claim is incorrect. Th’ Gaussling was in fact advised of this auspicious occasion in advance by a nerdly friend, but failed to appreciate the gravity of it.]

Of greater interest might be the very next second. Apparently 1234567890 + 1 is prime (I have not personally verified this and probably will not get around to it before the next interesting Unix moment arrives-  9876543210).