Category Archives: CounterCurrent

Mea Culpa

Today I found myself attending a talk on mortar propellants. It was delivered by a shy young woman who looked to be no older than a high school senior- she looked like a babysitter you’d hire to stay at home with the kid while you treated the wife unit to a night out on the town. Yet she was an expert in mortar shell propellants.

Next, I attended a talk on flare compositions delivered by a tiny woman who could barely see above the podium.

I rounded the day off by attending a talk by a woman who presented her results on igniter design and in developing a new explosive propellant manufacturing process. During the Q&A, my questions on ignition mechanisms were answered by yet another woman who was exceedingly knowlegeable in this field.

What I have noticed is that the gun and rocket propellant R&D field is populated with women to a much greater degree than the industrial organic or organometallic chemistry waters in which I normally swim.

Before you fire a rude comment alleging some sexist malfeasance, please understand that I was raised by a single mother as the eldest of 5 kids. That, and having witnessed the birth of my child, I have no doubt whatsoever about the robustness and Ability of women.

That women do this isn’t news. What is noteworthy is the extent to which my ignorance remains so great at age 51. My caveman misconception was that explosives chemistry would not appeal to women. I had mistakenly and foolishly assumed that a career with explosives was largely a male domain and driven by male fascination with power. Holy cats. I was quite mistaken.

I seem to be wrong about  a lot of things these days.

Was Abe Lincoln Wrong?

When I hear the  snide comments of Gingrich and Limbaugh or witness the rebirth of Tom DeLay, I begin to wonder if President Abraham Lincoln wasn’t mistaken in trying to keep the Union together. Southern Conservatism with its fanatical Baptist dominionist wingnut demographic has even perverted basic conservative values of thrift and small government. It’s expensive military fetish and its efficient marshaling of extreme nationalism have cast precious little light on the complex problems of our time, just a devisive heat.

The epoch of the “Bush II Wild-Assed Excursion in American Civilization” has lead to the present disintegration of the GOP from the Grand Old Party to the Confederate Splintered Old Party of serial filibustering demagogues.

Perhaps we should set aside a few states for the Southern Conservatives to set up a Confederacy where lassaiz faire and the Southern Baptist Convention can run unfettered in the shady green pastures of God’s marketplace. Hell, throw in Texas for good measure- except for Houston. Houston would be a independent city-state a la Hong Kong. Newt can be the new Jeff Davis of the Confederacy of Theocratic States.

Let the southern conservatives luv each other up in their own country. They can preach their sticky doctrine to a ready made choir all day long. It would be worth having a Republican Homeland seccession if it will shut the bastards up.

Thoughts on the Panic of 2008

While the congress and the various media are grinding their battle axes and taking swings at each other, I hope that we all remember that the absence of suitable regulations on the financial markets is really not the cause of the Panic of 2008. The cause of this trainwreck can be found in the practices and mindsets of certain elite players in the market. This is a pathology of the marketplace, our culture, and ultimately, of human behavior.  

Blaming government for the excesses of the market is like blaming your doctor for your riotous and drunken merrymaking.  In the end, the participants in this orgiastic financial frenzy should be called to account for themselves in front of something like an angry mob. The rest of the herd needs to cull the troublesome members, either through the courts or through social stigma like excommunication or shame.

Obviously, the government was asleep at the wheel in its regulatory duties. But to some extent it was plainly maneuvered out of the way of Wall Street.  While we are hurling epithets at congress, we should not forget that the boards of directors and executives of the troubled corporations have neglected their fiduciary responsibilities to the shareholders. These are the same smug bastards who will hammer you if you miss a mortgage payment. Surely they should be held to a similar accountability as a mortgagee.

As long as we are considering accountability, the show business component of this is the broadcast media (the Fourth Estate). The commercialization and show business aspect of news reporting can only lead to structural biases that favor the needs of the corporation. If news and commentary is regarded as entertainment (ie., Mad Money, Rush Limbaugh, etc), then it is inevitable that it will be conducted like any other carnival enterprise- it becomes a traveling freakshow meant to attract the eyes of a gawking but uncritical public.

It is not in the nature of corporate governance to accept divisions that are not profitable. Important but dry news will be replaced with anything that meets the definition of “compelling”.  Panem et circenses. Celebrity becomes a credential and the drama of controversy becomes more important than the particulars of the case.

If the information feedback loop to other members of the marketplace is filtered by self-serving players, then the equilibrium is fundamentally shifted in favor of the owners of the filter. Inescapably, the broadcast media are part of this whole Panic phenomenon.

Questions about health care costs

When one goes to the doctor for an examination or to have an office procedure performed, notes are made on the patients chart and procedure codes are recorded. Somewhere, a person enters these codes to the accounting system which then makes a ledger entry and generates an invoice.

Here is a crude guess (factor of 2 estimate) as to the labor costs involved for a 2-Doc office in a quiet town, nominally- 2 MD’s @ $250 k each, 2 PA’s at ~$35 k each, 2 office clerks @$25 k each. Add up the salaries plus 25 % for taxes and benefits, it adds to $775,000 per year in direct labor costs.

If we assume the mortgage or rent is $3000 per month, insurance on the facility is $8,000 per year (a guess), and utilities are $5000 per year (a guess), we can add another $49,000 bringing the total to $824,000 per year. 

Spread over 52 weeks at 48 hours per week, the overhead cost runs at $330.01 per hour. If the docs make $150,000 per year, the overhead comes down to $229.97 per hour. In a town away from the major population centers, the real cost is probably between the two numbers. In major markets, the costs may be 2x or more higher than the scribbling I have proposed.

At $330/hr, the labor overhead cost is $5.50 per minute. At $230/hr, the labor overhead cost is $3.83 per minute. This simple mindedly assumes that the docs are running the clinic and not a hospital. So, while a patient rattles away about a dream from the previous night, or gives a recitation of every manner of ache and pain in the last 5 years, the clock is ticking away. It is easy to see why most offices have multiple examination rooms and the doc spends all day popping in and out of these rooms. It is driven by the need to keep up the rate of production.

A practice is a business and there is a reasonable expectation of some kind of net profit. If in this labor intensive business the previous overhead costs consume 60 % of the cash flow (a guess), then the 40 % balance covers materials, misc costs, and profit. So, the high number may be more like $550/hr to afford a 15 % net profit. The low estimate would be $383/hr to give the 15 % net profit.

I don’t know what the numbers really are. If anything, they are likely to be understated. I just did a back of the napkin scientific wild-assed guess (a SWAG).

Now, for the patient add to this the cost of testing, prescription drugs,and procedures by specialists who are likely to have expensive machinery as well as a high hourly rate. All of the parties involved have preset costs and margin requirements for their services. For the patient, there are few options for a Wal-Mart approach with less expensive care services.  The entire system has evolved to soak up the resources provided by insurance companies and the government.

Ultimately, the patient is a minor decision maker when it comes to medical services. Medicine has become an extractive industry where the sick person owns the land but not the mineral rights.  To a great extent, the doc is the gatekeeper as to what service will be needed and the insurance company is the gate keeper on the funds. It is up to the patient to try to connect the two parties in a dispute.

How can we expect to reign in health care costs when there is little option to find alternative services that are affordable?  Increasingly, we have champagne services on a beer budget.

There is no option for selecting a Ford sedan when the dealer only provides Mercedes. If medical schools and medical boards have an exclusive grip on the supply of MD’s in the market, how can the cost of medical labor be brought into line with the needs of the population bell curve? To what extent are MD’s over trained? Any at all?

And, to what extent do caregivers now turn ambiguous cases over to specialists or MRI’s where before they would have tackled it with more modest means? Perhaps litigation is a sort of ratchet that makes testing that was once optional now manditory.

People who provide critical and life saving services in our society should be rewarded in a manner commensurate with the contribution. And we should be willing to pay for such service. But for this service to have grown into a massive business machine that harvests cash from the marketplace, but is somehow immune from equilibrium forces in the market that everyone else is subject to is grossly unfair and cannot be sustained.

UnaTed the Bomber

An interesting piece of critical analysis of Ted Kaczynski (the Unabomber) and his manifesto can be found at The Technium. Much time has been dedicated to the pathological aspects of Kaczynski and his violent acts. But perhaps not so much energy has been expended on whether or not his writings made any sense in any context.

… the Unabomber is right that choices which begin as optional can over time become less so. First, there are certain technologies (say sewage treatment, vaccinations, traffic lights) that were once matters of choice but that are now mandated and enforced by the system. Then, there are other systematic technologies, like automobiles, which are self-reinforcing. Thousands of other technologies are intertwined into these systemic ones, making it hard for a human to avoid. The more that participate, the more essential it becomes.  Living without these embedded technologies requires more effort, or at least more deliberate alternatives.

The author points out that Kaczynski was concerned about the spread of what Jim Kunstler might call “technological triumphalism” and the lack of options we have in participation. Kaczynski was so concerned that he spent much of his life in a one room shack in the mountains of Montana.  But he did not live like a cave man. There was a certain minimum level of technology he was comfortable with.

Another person might have fashioned these ideas into the core of a brilliant academic or writing career. But for reasons or illness unique to Kaczynski, he followed a darker path by choosing to lob grenades from the margins. No matter how compelling the logic, we need to have social intelligence to temper the indulgence of violence in persuasion.

Unix Time Celebration

My wierd friend Les in the Bay Area advises me that a unique horological event has come and gone. It was a special moment in Unix Time that occured on Friday, 13 February, 2009. The origin on the Unix time line is planted just after midnight, 1 January, 1970 and accumulates in units of seconds. Notably, on 2/13/09 at 23:31:30 (UTC), the Unix clock registered “1234567890”. 

This event was unique enough in some circles to lead Unix Time enthusiasts to celebrate with parties and revelry in many parts of the world. I’m sure they partied like brain damaged test monkeys.

Naturally, Th’ Gaussling was not invited or even advised of this special event. [UpdateThis claim is incorrect. Th’ Gaussling was in fact advised of this auspicious occasion in advance by a nerdly friend, but failed to appreciate the gravity of it.]

Of greater interest might be the very next second. Apparently 1234567890 + 1 is prime (I have not personally verified this and probably will not get around to it before the next interesting Unix moment arrives-  9876543210).

It’s Mardi Gras Baby

As usual, I’m the only person at work wearing Mardi Gras beads today.  The day is bitter sweet. Some of the worst, the most savage, thrashing, hurling hangovers I’ve ever had have been in New Orleans.  My memories are filled with the sights and smells of Bourbon Street and the rowdy throngs standing in the street begging for revelers on the balconies to throw some beads or flash the crowd.

Last year in a blues bar a waitress wearing a Daisy Duke outfit and carring a rack of test tubes came up to me and said … something. Obviously I had “Chump” written all over me. I couldn’t understand what she said because the band was so loud, so through the beer fog I just nodded. Next thing I knew she took my money and grabbed my head and plunged it towards the test tubes planted in various locations in her outfit. I grabbed the tubes with my mouth and tipped back the sweet, flammable contents. There was more, but I won’t elaborate on it further.

After less than a minute, I had consumed unknown alcoholic liquids from dubious test tubes and walked away $30 lighter. I left the bar dazed and confused at what happened, feeling incredibly stupid for having been duped like a common tourista. Oh! The shame and degradation, sort of.

Brain Draino

The Obama administration famously put restructions on executive pay, capping at US$500k for institutions receiving TARP money. Naturally, there has been some shameless howling from the Masters of the Universe. Who? You know, the geniuses who were instrumental in birthing this finance mess.

There has been some wagging of tongues and tut tutting in regard to the problems of living on $500k per year on the upper East Side of Manhattan. Mathematically, this may in fact be true.  But I would offer that this is the market supplying pushback towards equilibrium. If the swanky life in Manhattan is not feasible on the meager sum of $500k, then the banks need to relocate. Banks should consider the kind of lifestyle an executive could have in Manhattan, Kansas, or Little Rock on $500k. Or York, NE. We got yer swank right here!

I love this description of financiers by David Gillen at the NYT-

Banking executives and recruiters say talented financiers — the driven, hyper-numerate, slightly ruthless ones with a preternatural knack for making money in bull markets and bear — are always in high demand. NY Times, Feb 21, 2009.

It sounds to me like the finance industry needs a therapeutic brain drain or a cerebral colonic.

Transformative Research in Many Ways

A friend who is presently on sabbatical has started a blog about his academic experiences in primarily undergraduate institutions (PUI). It is called Sabbatical Epistles. He mentions a key phrase that is being batted around; it is Transformative Research. According to the NSF, transformative research is-

research that has the capacity to revolutionize existing fields, create new subfields, cause paradigm shifts, support discovery, and lead to radically new technologies.

The context of the use of this phrase was that research funding at PUI’s will increasingly be put to the merit test of transformative research. As such, research into chemical synthesis at PUI’s is especially at risk of not qualifying for funding. I suppose the concern is that multistep synthesis projects for undergrads requires lots of time and skills that undergrads do not have.

Who is against transformative research? It is like motherhood and apple pie. Everybody wants to fund or be part of this kind of effort. We should always ask that research funds be put towards this end. But there is more to it than just an affirmation of meritocracy.

What I sense is that the golden age of undergraduate research programs may be fading into some darker period of scant interest.  The scientific establishment continues to grow larger with each passing year. And in parallel, major research universities continue to add programs, courses, grad students, faculty, bricks and mortar, and administration based on the allocation of grant money. Big institutions depend on grant money to a large extent. 

As grant money gets tighter, program requirements will increasingly filter the small fish from the big fish. Large institutions have many alumni in influential positions and in the end, the programmatic mind-set of large research institutions in conjunction with the definition of success as understood by administrators of first tier schools will win the day. 

There is a pecking order to this. A kind of snobismus. And undergraduate research is not too high in the pecking order.  In relation to undergraduate research in the area of synthesis, in most schools this is the only opportunity for an undergrad to get some advanced experience in the synthetic arts. If you have tried to hire a synthetic savvy BA/BS, you know they are hard to find. In my experience, most synthetikkers want to go to grad school. They want more.

Just in case anybody is listening, I want to make a pitch for continued and stronger funding of undergraduate research. As a student, it changed the course of my life in terms of growth and development. As a former mentor of undergraduate researchers as a post doc and prof, I can say that nearly all of my students are now either PhD’s or MD’s. They are all contibuting greatly to the benefit of our society in industry, teaching hospitals, and academia. I am proud of them and I’d do it over in a heartbeat.  The pedagogy isn’t in dispute, I suppose. But the method of funding is.