Aviation Deathmatch- Boeing vs Airbus vs PR of China

China has announced that it will enter into the passenger jet manufacturing business.  China Commercial Aircraft is expected to produce 150-passenger aircraft by 2020. 

This is a big deal.  And a big time challenge to the primacy of the US aviation industry. China’s aim is to achieve self-sufficiency in all high tech sectors. If it were just that, it would be less threatening. But what it really means is global market domination, not just self-sufficiency.  This is just competition, but how it plays out for the US will depend on how US industry acts to hold on to its marketshare beginning right now.

The USA retains talent and ability in the entertainment and aviation industries. I believe that US influence of the petrochemical industry is in decline, due in part to the rise of nationalized oil companies in much of the oil producing world. It looks as if our aviation industry will feel competition by a nationalized aircraft manufacturer as well.

The rise of Chinese competition in the marketplace in inevitable. What the west must come to grips with is the inherent leverage that China has with its low wage labor force and the ability to channel resources into projects of national pride such as this.

China will also have the benefit of a century of jet engine and aeronautical research paid for by other nations. I imagine that more than a few of its engineers will have western universities listed on their resumes. Can’t do much about this either. But we in the west can use this example to strengthen our resolve to not go the way of tired and anemic empires.

Thus Begins Cold War II

Russia celebrated a holiday recently with a large scale military parade on Red Square. Just like the bad old days. Putins sock puppet, President Dmitri Medvedev, smiled while Putin stood stern-faced at his side at the annual Parade of Hardware.  Insiders claim that Russia’s effort to modernize its military forces is anemic and plagued with corruption. Putin and followers are plainly appealing to that voice in the Russian soul that longs for strongman leadership.

China, on the other hand, is quietly constructing a secret underground nuclear submarine base on Hainan. Hmmm. A secret underground lair. Sounds like Dr. No.  I doubt there are miniskirted nubiles with machine guns. Bummer.

Whereas Russia is fighting infrastructural inertia in its return to the platform, China is methodically ramping up its military with an economy flush with cash. With funding from its exports of Wal-Mart inventory and other Cheap Plastic Crap (CPC) marketed through its many outlets in the USA, China is moving closer to a blue water Navy and an SSBN fleet.

In the next 20 years, we are likely to see China flexing its muscle by positioning naval (carrier ?) groups and hints of Chinese submarine fleets prowling the continental shelves of the world.  Just like us.

While the USA shadow boxes with multiple terrorist threats around the world, China plods forward minding its own business and funding its own growth.

Four US presidential terms were squandered following the fall of the Soviet Union- 2 x Clinton and 2 x Bush.  US efforts to engage Russia in economic cooperation were weak at best. The highlight was perhaps the downgrading of Soviet era nuclear materials.  Instead of building friendships and trade cooperation, US presidents were distracted by faulty nation building exercises and dubious foreign adventures. Mikhail Gorbachev himself recently lamented that “… every US president has to have a war…”. 

US government needs to spend a 4 year term focused inwards. We must address US infrastructure as eagerly and aggressively as we land troops on the sandy reaches of the earth. The US needs an upgrade in electrical power distribution, bridges, its rail “system”, and its ports.

Collectively, we must find ways to keep factories and businesses in the USA. We need to reconsider the structure of the Code of Federal Regulations. Our regulatory structure is now so complex and extensive that we face the real risk of killing innovation. Our tax code is too complex and too burdensome on citizens and businesses. The government is funding far too many activities.

In short, the USA must get back to basics. The country is in a existential crisis and we need to get grounded again. We need fewer rules in our lives, not more. We need fewer people telling us how to live an authentic life. More of us need to spend a bit more time in the pursuit of happiness.

Limbaugh Promoting Civil Dishonesty

If most of us had a dog that behaved in the unwholesome manner that radio entertainer Rush Limbaugh does, we would have it euthanized at the humane society. Limbaugh of course is the GOP’s grotesque and doctrinaire cartoon character and resident mad dog.  Limbaugh has been promoting the idea that conservative voters slyly vote for Hillary Clinton in the primaries so as to aid her delivery to the electorate for the general election as the Democratic candidate. As the thinking goes, this will polarize voters and drive panicked undecided or inactive voters to the polls like nails to a magnet to vote for whomever the opposing party offers.

Voting is one of the most important acts we commit as citizens. To soil it with cunning and subterfuge in this manner is to disfigure ones standing as a citizen. It is simply wrong and Limbaugh should be widely condemned for his part in it.  I’m thinking tar and feathers. Or, tar and packing peanuts.

On Industrial Lab Procedures

I often find myself performing synthetic preps written by others. Some literature preps are useful and efficient. More than a few are not. Many preps thoughtfully convey important issues for the operator to make note of. But very often, writers of synthetic preparations assume that users in the future will be as knowledgeable of the handling issues as they are when the paper goes to press.

The writing style used in American chemical journals is usually a past tense, passive voice style where an exuberant first person voice is frowned upon. Writers of papers in the peer reviewed literature write in a tight, condensed form that favors efficient use of space.

In industry, lab preparations are very often extracted from the literature and applied to the preparation of research or commercial products. The common style used in published procedures is such that some level of skill is assumed by the writer for the reader.  This is fair. If one is combing the literature for preps, it is usually the case that the browser has a significant level of lab skills.

But in industry, or at least in the brackish waters I splash around in, a tight literature-style preparation may not be sufficient. In order to satisfy the needs of the company as a whole, health and safety data may have to be front and center on the writeup. Proper personal protective equipment requirements must be posted, and HMIS, MSDS, and labeling data is included.  

To satisfy the cost accountants, a time and materials list might have to be tabulated in a way that makes sense to accountants. The regulatory folks need to know about air permits and TSCA status. To satisfy the Quality Assurance/Quality Control folks, lot traceability for raw materials, intermediates, and products must be defined and immortalized with a firm paper trail. This is done in the form of part numbers, certification data, inventory locations, lot numbers, and order numbers. 

A prep document itself can be a permanent record of what was done. It can be used to document the management of change. A prep document itself can be used to provide documentation in place of a lab notebook.

But most importantly, a prep document will be used by other chemists. Possibly those of a lower skill level. So it is crucial that key information is immortalized. Ambiguity must be wrung out like rinse water from a towel. Key art must be set forth, but non-critical actions must be written in such a way as to allow discretion by the operator. Overly rigid instructions restraining trivial aspects are merely burdensome and unduly constrain the operator.

Writing a procedure is a kind of brain dump. It is a disclosure of all of the art necessary and sufficient to perform an operation. For a company, a procedure is company treasure and should be jealously maintained as such.

The business of bringing a new product to market is a lot like putting in a new town along the frontier rail line. You have to build the tracks to get there. You have to haul all of your materials and skeptical people to this promised land. Once there you have to decide what goes where and who will do what. Always you must have buy-in from the settlers. Much time, energy, and acrimony goes into the progress toward the finished good. At any given moment funding can be pulled, sending everyone home and leaving you with a ghost town. A mere memory of what was and what could have been.

A well written lab prep contributes to this settlement in the new land of opportunity by providing structure and a foundation from which to build.

 

 

On Company Lawyers

In the chemical technology world, it often happens that one company will engage another in the manufacture of some particular substance. Company A needs a particular material made according to certain specifications. Company A goes to Company B to ask for price and availability.  But first, Company A must disclose the identity and certain particulars of the material to Company B.

For Company A to disclose the identity of its material, it must work out a secrecy agreement with Company B. Company A’s business depends on the material and it does not want Company B to disclose the details of the material, the process, or any other aspect of the business. So, they execute a secrecy agreement.

What is interesting about such arrangements is the great diversity of “language” in the terms among companies. Some companies are very concerned about the faintest smidgeon of errant information and write detailed terms accordingly. Others are much more concerned about the broad strokes and are apparently willing to let the courts work out the details in a conflict.

Some companies are willing to yield on unreasonable terms and conditions while others will fight to the death on even the slightest change.  There is a strong correlation to the corporate culture and the extent to which a company is under a market pull influence (tolling operators) or is engaged in technology push (inventors).

In some companies, issues relating to intellectual property (IP) are strongly influenced by the lawyers.  In such an organization, it sometimes happens that management is completely immobilized by indecision in IP matters. Managers may not understand the IP, are unable to engage their own lawyers in detailed discussion about the issue, or may simply be terrified of making a mistake. Doing business with organizations that are highly rigid in deference to their lawyers tends to be a more difficult activity. The thinking is that if the lawyer makes the decision, then they can take the heat if it goes south. Of course, the lawyer won’t take the heat- they’ll just bill you to get you out of the mess.

In other companies, upper management will take legal advice, but will not leave the decisions to the lawyers. These managers understand that IP is company treasure that must be put to good use in order to bring in revenues. Lawyers get paid irrespective of the outcome in the advice dispensing trade. A good manager knowns how to ride a lawyer like a cutting horse, digging in the spurs now and then to show who’s boss.

Scalia Speaks

There was an interesting interview of SCOTUS Associate Justice Antonin Scalia on MSNBC by Tim Russert. The normally reclusive Scalia is on a media circus tour touting his new book Making Your Case: The Art of Persuading a Judge.  Like Lao Tzu or Machiavelli, Scalia is revealing his innermost thoughts on how to behave.  The comments submitted on the Law Blog are interesting. Snarky, perhaps, but revealing.

Scalia said an interesting thing in the interview. He opined that too many of America’s best and brightest are drawn to the legal profession. He conceded that the field of law is fundamentally unproductive and that to have so many bright people drawn to it was a waste of talent that could be applied more industriously.

Regarding the Bush v. Gore matter, we’re advised to “get over it”.

Suspension of Disbelief

I have recently posted on a local play I am involved with. It is a community theater production of Proof, by David Auburn.  As the lighting guy, I have to watch the production carefully so I can pick up the lighting cues. It isn’t heavy brain work, but it does require accuracy and an ever-so-slight amount of flair. In the course of this I have the chance to watch the actors closely and note the subtilties of their performance.

Act 1 Scene 1 opens with Catherine having a discussion with her father- recently deceased- out on the back porch. Here the actor playing Catherine sets the tone for the play. She transitions from a normal tone with her mathmatician father to the glum realization that he is dead.

After intermission, Act 2 Scene 5 reverts to 5 or so years in the past. In this scene Catherine is a younger woman anxious to leave home to begin school. What is so absolutely scintillating is the manner in which this actor did so. In contrast to the morose, sarcastic, and angry young woman trying to deal with her father’s death, she now plays the character as optimistic, charming ,and enthusiastic.  Done properly, this scene lurches the audience down a completely different emotional cascade and further invests them in the outcome.

This is a sign of a good writer at work. Hook the viewers with intriguing circumstances and lurch them from one emotional track to another in unexpected ways. This promotes emotional connection with the story and the suspension of disbelief. When performed by good players, the show comes alive.

More snow.

May 1, 2008.  Snowflakes are blowing around the lilac blossoms. Predictions call for 8″ to 16″ of snow in the northern mountains. Rain & possible snow for the northern front range. Lordy. 

A Fly in the Ointment. A Chemist Among the Astronomers.

This is a re-post of a 2008 seminar I attended by speaker Dr. Carolyn Porco.

28 April, 2008. University of Colorado at BoulderDr. Carolyn Porco of the Space Science Institute gave a public lecture at CU Boulder on the highlights of the Cassini Mission to Saturn. Porco gives a lively presentation and- dare I say it- is mildly charismatic. The website of the imaging group, ciclops.org, is quite well done and even includes downloads of many of the papers from the team. The paper on Enceladus is particularly interesting.

As a chemist sitting anonymously in a crowd of space science enthusiasts and professionals, I cannot help but compare the tenor of the experience to my own field of chemistry.

Space science people are funded in proportion to the general public enthusiasm for space.  The universe is big. Really, really big. And it is full of breathtaking scenery and wondrous objects. Space science almost always causes people to experience a deeply emotional sense of awe and wonder. This has not been lost on the space science community. The display of majestic photos with a bit of space music in the background goes a long way to rally public support.

Chemistry on the other hand, rarely induces this kind of raw response from the limbic system.  Whereas chemistry induces shock, astronomy induces awe.

The most common exhortation made on exposure to the chemical sciences is “How in the hell am I going to pass this course?”

Students take intro to astronomy classes as an enjoyable way to get their science credits. Students take chemistry because they have to. We all know this. Science aversion is even more extreme for the poor sots in physics.

The SI unit for humility is the “sagan”.  Public astronomy talks usually have a high sagan factor. I would estimate last nights talk was 8.5 out of 10 sagans.

Of particular interest to Porco was the Saturnian moon Enceladus. This moon has substantial water on it with evidence of “tectonic” activity on the uncratered surface. On closer inspection, it is apparent that this body is spewing water into space with fair vigor. Indeed, a vapor torus of water tracing the orbit can be seen on some of the images. The suggestion is that there may be liquid water under a water ice crust. IR images show hot spots that coincide with surface fissures on Enceladus.  This moon would be a good place to land some drilling equipment.

Porco spoke of the hope of eventually finding life on Enceladus or on Jupiter’s Europa. She suggested that this would finally “break the spell” and allow the assumption that life may be relatively common on worlds with liquid water.

What this kind of planetary exploration affords are insights into the evolution of planets and ultimately, what circumstances are likely and necessary for the ignition of life.  But the circumstances that promote life formation are chemical in nature. The origin of life is not an astronomical problem. It is a chemical network problem and for that we need the involvement of chemists.

Porco talk on Cassini

I’m off to Boulder-town tonight to hear Carolyn Porco lecture on the Saturn Cassini mission in the fabulous Glenn Miller Ballroom on the CU campus. The last time I was in that room I saw Carl Sagan talk about the Viking mission (ca 1978?). It’s been a while. I think I have some blurry Tri-X negatives somewhere of Sagan lecturing.

I’ll follow this post with a commentary afterwards.  Ciao.