Fork in the Road

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Storms here in the Colorado Territory.  A spring upslope storm guides moisture up the rising terrain and drops frozen water on the high plains. Unlike the Eskimos, we have reduced it to a single word- snow.

I’ve spent much time lately with the attorney crafting business agreements. It is a delicate art. Sins of commission or omission can come back to clobber you.  Having been involved in a few of these things, I am beginning to see the patterns and whorls of terms and conditions, vision and revision, twisting and turning to morph, vanish, and crystallize over time. Hammering out a business agreement is a learning experience for all involved.

Over the course of negotiation, both parties learn about each other. They learn the strengths and weaknesses of the respective organizational structures and of the individuals involved.  Expectations that began as firm requirements slowly undergo plastic deformation into other shapes.

There are two main fears for most negotiators. Making a blunder of some sort and leaving money on the table.  Nobody wants to immortalize bad judgement or inattentiveness in an iron-clad document that will be in force for years. And notbody wants to aim too low in their expectations of performance or price.  Parties speak piously of win/win, but secretly they want WIN/win.

Buyers need a bargain trophy to parade before their bosses at the next performance review. Sellers want to appear shrewd in front of their bosses. Participants in a negotiation need many things and the appearance of sound, shrewd judgement is not the least of the needs.

Most large companies have whole departments that manage contracts and license agreements. They have specialists on staff to manage business agreements- maybe even a few lawyers. Chances are, if you are a chemist/engineer who has strayed from the lab and find yourself in business development or sales, you may be working on supply agreements, tech transfer agreements, tolling contracts, secrecy agreements, etc., already.

At some point in the career of a chemist/engineer, a choice will be given as to the kind of upward mobility opportunities one may take. Some, like myself, chose the path of business. A chemist may be assigned to a procurement job where chemistry skills are applied to buying chemicals for your organization.  Others may move into sales and represent a territory or become one of the Knights Templar of commerce- a business development manager.

Laboratory work is fun and gratifying. But so are many other activities. The operation of any scientific endeavor is complex. Universities and industry alike require that at least some of its soldiers move into administration so they can continue to operate.

Passport Control

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According to the AP, emloyees of Stanley, Inc., have beed fired for reportedly viewing the passport records of Sen. Obama.  The New York Times reports that the passport files of Senators Obama, Clinton, and McCain have been accessed inappropriately. Whether they revealed more than name, place and date of birth, and social security number remains to be seen.

No doubt this will result in a flood of rule making and billable hours for consultants. It seems to me that there is an alternative to devising higher security for government records.  If the government collected a lower volume of sensitive information, then there is less information that can be inappropriately viewed. 

The gov’t collects a good deal of information from people who fill out forms for some service or consideration. The question is, just how many different data fields are really necessary for a given service? In other words, how much excess information is being collected to satisfy the just-in-case doubts suffered by the gov’t form designer?

Passport information may be a bad example on which to raise this question owing to the gravity of passport issuance.  But the larger questions still exists- Just how much information about citizens is truly necessary to run the government?  Are there any checks and balances here?

Farewell to Arthur C. Clark

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I’m saddened by the recent passage of the science and science fiction (SF) writer Arthur C. Clark. I blundered into the SF works of Clark, Asimov, and a few others as a high school sophomore. Freshly relocated from the midwest in 1971, I fell into a social group that was largely scientifically and technically oriented. We shunned hippies, pot, and cigarettes in favor of electronics, SF, chess, and physics.  We were juvenile scientists and engineers.

I have always enjoyed the narrative style of Clark. He was able to write thought provoking SF with dialog that was comfortable yet focused. He could manage plot development with technical subjects without collapse into a pedantic or evangelical tone.

What I am left with from my years of reading SF is a particular world view.  My vision of the future is greatly shaped by numerous SF stories written over the last 75 years. It is an egalitarian world where people have reasoned their way around nuclear self-immolation. A world where the quest for knowledge is prized and where the extinguishment of pain and suffering is sought by all. Greed has been abandoned as a way of life.  People spend the bulk of their lives seeking pleasure and understanding, not just the next meal.

But, it’s just science fiction.

Herr Doktor Professor

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According to the March 10, 2008 issue of C&EN, a number of US PhD scientists working at Max Planck are facing charges for illegal use of the title “Dr.” According to the article, the title Dr is reserved for graduates of EU universities. From C&EN-

According to German criminal law, the title “Dr.” is reserved only for individuals who received a doctoral degree from a European Union institution, explains Erik Kraatz, a criminal lawyer at the Free University, Berlin. Kraatz notes that the law also prohibits masquerading as a police officer, medical doctor, or professor.

Indeed, to legally use the title “Dr.” in Germany, foreign-trained scientists must request permission from their local German state government. With this state-level consent, they can use the title “Dr.” anywhere in the country. But without the state’s permission to use the title, a scientist breaks two laws: the state law requiring approval to use the “Dr.” title and the federal impersonation law, Kraatz says.

Breaking the state law is punishable with a fine akin to that associated with a traffic ticket. However, breaking the federal law is punishable by a larger fine or up to one year in jail, Kraatz adds.

This is a very hard-core, nanny-state policy to apply to an honorific. Golly. To avoid trouble with Interpol, I’ll make sure to change my business cards and my email lest I be mistaken for a physician wannabe.  Heavens.  We don’t want that. \;-)

Hopefully someone in the German legislature will propose a reform for this ridiculous law.

Scattered Bits and Bobs

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No rest for the wicked. I have been requested and required by the boss to attend the ACS meeting in NOLA.  Lots to get done before departure.  I’ll have to get my liver conditioned for a visit to the French Quarter.

I have been using the thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA) for fun and profit lately. It is quite useful in solving certain kinds of problems in process development.  Of course, if we attached a chain it might make a dandy boat anchor too.  Just kidding … mostly.

Lots of chemistry is presently under development in the USA. It is premature to concede the future of technology development to Asia just yet.  There are lots of companies struggling to get their new technologies to market- I see this every day. This is in stark contrast to news of the tragic comedy on Wall Street. It is important to remember that the stock market is only one of many indicators of economic vitality.  It seems to me that the current maelstrom is based on negligent banking practices, not industrial weakness.

Back to the hood. Gotta ice the trap on the vac line.

Disposable Reactors

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Disposable reactors are here. According to ICIS, Marlborough, MA, based Xcellerex is offering disposable bioreactors for biologics manufacture.  These single-use reactors are available in the 40-2000 Liter working volume range.  The company offers several reasons for why their product might be desirable. They argue that more time will be available for productive reactor operation as opposed to having production down part of the time for reactor cleanout and validation.

The battle for high throughput moves to a new level. Xcellerex states that the installed capital cost is ca 1/2 that of hardpiped reactors. They make the case that delays due to cleaning are reduced and that plant time is used more efficiently.  

Monte Carlo Analysis

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Th’ Gaussling is surfing the net looking at freeware. The possibilities are amazing. It’s like I’ve crawled up from underground onto a sunny Brazilian beach full of nubile sunbathers frolicking in the waves. It’s all just too wonderful to be true …

[sound of needle scratching across record]

So I’m new to Monte Carlo simulations. I have some economic modeling to do and it has become apparent to me that mere spreadsheet grinding isn’t enough.  To make a more convincing case I need to introduce plausible cost variances somehow by mixing and blending various kinds of guesswork distribution curves from the elements of the project. There is a particular Project Risk and Contingency Analysis software that seems reasonable to start with. It would be interesting to hear of experiences others may have had with Monte Carlo project modeling.

Ear to the Ground

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My comments on recession come strictly from news and from petrochemical industry publications. I have not seen any indication that manufacturing of specialty chemicals (at least in the waters I swim in) are as yet affected by the economic turmoil that the lending fiasco triggered. Eventually orders will taper some, but the how much and when is not at all clear.

It takes a while for the effects of a downturn to filter upstream to all sectors of chemical manufacturing. The first effects will likely be a pushback on delivery of existing orders. Then, the period between succesive orders will lengthen as businesses closer to the consumers will start to trim down inventories and throughput.  Finally, sales forecasts will begin to report spotty sales projections 2 or 3 quarters out. Eventually, you run into those weak quarters and have to find a way to limp through them.

The important question relating to petrochemicals (aromatics, naphtha, ethylene, propylene, etc) is where does price elasticity really kick in for hydrocarbon intensive goods as crude prices continue to rise and the dollar continues to devalue? 

Packaging materials like PE, PS, and PP, etc. are very often not the primary product consumers are looking for. They are produced for sellers of consumer goods as packaging materials. The purchasing decision maker is not the person strolling down the isles of Wal-Mart, but rather the product manufacturers who have to package the goods. 

This economic disturbance seems unique. Demand from the global middle class is growing as the US economy falters.  Demand for hydrocarbon fuels and manufacturing feedstocks is strong from Asia for their own consumption. But Asian production is also strongly linked to the demand of their products from the west. Predicting how this thing plays out is very tricky. 

Polymer membranes, HDPE pipe, PVC pipe, automotive assemblies and fascia are all large consumers of hydrocarbon products. Demand for these materials, obviously, should parallel the health of construction and automotive industries. But as the US transitions to a net importer of polymers, the connection to US economics is murky.

I suppose the best business to be in is war profiteering and security, at least as long as a war president is in office. It seems to be shielded from the raw forces of economics. As long as the gov’t can print money, special interests can be paid.  A good career would be as a translator between Arabic and Mandarin.

Some Men Like Cheese

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If you appreciate the famous cantata Carmina Burana by Carl Orff, you’ll love this interpretation. It is not a small download, but it is worth it.

Enjoyed a decent local production of Guys and Dolls last night. The parts of Miss Adelaide and Sister Sarah Brown (soprano) were particularly well played. The soprano could really belt it out- It was spectacular.  I shared the table with a theatre director and a quantum physicist. Interesting mix.