Putin has been preparing Belarus for war with Ukraine for at least several years. According to one source, Belarus is being prepared as a staging ground and military hub for Russia. Along the Belarus border with Ukraine, roads and artillery positions are being built.

“Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced a rotational mobilization of selected military units to prepare the country for a potential ground war. While Lukashenko maintains that Belarus does not intend to actively join the conflict in Ukraine unless attacked first, the country is undertaking extensive defensive preparations and joint nuclear exercises with Russia.” Google AI

Belarus is thought to have as many as 50 to 60 thousand troops, though none are combat hardened. The Belarusian military is participating in extensive joint nuclear warfare exercises with Russian forces, testing the readiness of strategic deterrents and tactical nuclear systems.

Belarusian president Lukashenko claims not to want war but warns it is prepared to defend its sovereignty. Whether or not Belarusian troops actively engage Ukrainian forces in combat or simply provide help to Russian forces by way of assistance along the border with war materiel is unclear.

As a client state of Russia, the question of Belarusian sovereignty seems a bit shallow given its heavy reliance on Russia for armaments and political support of the Lukashenko regime. Lukashenko finds himself between NATO and Putin- not a happy place. What Putin forces Belarus to do remains to be seen.

The Suwałki corridor connects the Russian Kaliningrad Oblast on the Baltic to Belarus along the Polish-Lithuanian border. If fighting begins in earnest along the Belarus-Ukraine border, the inherent westward advance of hostilities will threaten Poland and Lithuania as well as call into question Russia’s intentions in regard to its access to Kaliningrad.

It’s worth remembering that Russia’s nuclear doctrine has long held that it does not recognize a firebreak between conventional and nuclear war as does the West. This is baked-in uncertainty for NATO in it’s approach to Russian response to the conduct of war.

One thing is certain, Putin intends on diluting Ukraine’s force posture along it’s eastern and southern fronts by ramping up hostilities from the Belarusian border. Reportedly, Russian electronic warfare sites have been placed on civilian residential buildings in the hope of using civilians as human shields.

Billions of bullets flying through the air in Putin’s dirty little “special military operation” but not a single one has found him. Isn’t that the way it always goes?