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On the Cusp of a Fateful Choice

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Forward: This essay is directed to my fellow US citizens. The US and its allies are what stand between liberal democracy and rising global authoritarianism. Authoritarian states have proven to be quite resistant to rising democracy. We cannot let it get started without pushback. Just so we are on the same page, here is a description from Wikipedia-

“Liberal democracy or western democracy is the combination of a liberal political philosophy that operates under a representative democratic form of government. It is characterized by elections between multiple distinct political parties, a separation of powers into different branches of government, the rule of law in everyday life as part of an open society, a market economy with private property, universal suffrage, and the equal protection of human rights, civil rights, civil liberties and political freedoms for all people. To define the system in practice, liberal democracies often draw upon a constitution, either codified or uncodified, to delineate the powers of government and enshrine the social contract. “

Wikipedia “Liberal Democracy”

The United States is on the cusp of making a fateful choice based on the results of the 2024 national election. While there are numerous issues simmering, I refer to the growing movement among conservatives to back off on military support for Ukraine. This group believes that we’ve spent far too much money on military aid for Ukraine’s defense and that these resources should be directed towards the homeland. The fact is that the US and other NATO countries have indeed sent a very large quantity of armaments and cash to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.

What might the consequences be if the US and others simply backed away and let the two countries duke it out? In other words, we practice some old fashion isolationism. Here are some thoughts-

  • Putin is a murderous dictator with designs on (re)establishing a more widespread Russian empire. He wants to extinguish what is now Ukraine and meld it into a greater Russia. He believes that Russia is destined become a “great” power again. Suh a dream is not unexpected by a leader, but he began his expansion in 2014 with his quiet annexation of southern Ukraine.
  • Unfortunately, Ukraine is not where it stops. The eastern European and Baltic states are well aware of this threat and the history behind it.
  • The question of Putin’s mental state is of great interest to intelligence communities and to heads of state. Barbara S. Held, clinical psychologist and emeritus psychology professor at Bowdoin College, suggests that on the “sad/mad/bad” scale, Putin shows no signs of being sad or mad. What remains is the matter of bad. Coming away from the Held article, one is left with the sense that Putin’s “problem” isn’t legal insanity or a clinical disorder, but rather he is just a really bad person who makes what he thinks are rational choices and occasionally makes misjudgments.

“By all accounts, he [Putin] misjudged the ease of his mission, and shows no remorse about his massive killing in Ukraine. But poor judgment and moral callousness alone don’t constitute legal insanity or madness in the psychological sense.”

Barbara S. Held, New York Daily News, March 16, 2022.
  • Crucially for Putin’s Kremlin, the state has such pervasive control that citizens are existentially afraid to defy the government. Putin is surrounded by many, many layers of loyalists. Putin’s Kremlin is a black box. Who knows what could happen in a power contest? It’s been said that in Russia, the rule of thumb is that if the people stay out of politics, the government will stay out of their lives.
  • Putin’s Kremlin believes that the mere existence of a successful liberal democracy like the US is an continuous threat to authoritarianism in general and to Putin’s Russia in particular. The Kremlin propaganda organs strenuously broadcast the weak and clumsy machinations in the US on a daily basis. This is very similar to the standard operating procedures of the former Soviet Union.
  • The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) believes very much the same thing. Liberal democracy in the world, with the US in particular, is an existential threat to Chinese leadership. The CCP can’t very well allow the public to seek greater freedom of speech lest citizens begin to question CCP authority.
  • An isolationist US is a country that has ceded its global influence to those who mean us harm. As US influence in the world diminishes, China and Russia will gradually move in to take up any slack.

A decision by the US to back-off its aid to Ukraine will create a power vacuum that will be instantly filled by the Putin regime. It will validate the assertions by the Russian and Chinese propaganda organs that the US is morally corrupt and weak and that its hegemony is finally over.

Why is Russia so aggressive? Look the long and complex history of the region and decide for yourself. A place to start might be with the Holodomor.

Gladwell on Power Distance

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Malcom Gladwell recently wrote a short essay titled “What I Found at a Mennonite Wedding”. While I don’t hold the iron age theory of the universe that the big religions have, I have always admired groups like the Quakers who practice simplicity and humility. Gladwell relates the idea of “power distance” that he observes at the Mennonite wedding he attended.

Power distance is an anthropological concept developed by psychologist Geert Hofstede. According to Wikipedia, this refers to “inequality and unequal distributions of power between parties“. Somewhat later the term was further refined by the Global Leadership and Organizational Behavior Effectiveness (GLOBE) project. GLOBE defined power distance as “the degree to which members of an organization or society expect and agree that power should be shared unequally”.

Once you see the definition, it’s meaning seems obvious. The phenomenon appears where individuals and groups seek control over others. It relies on the natural inclination of people to go along to get along or to seek affiliation. The recent MAGA love affair with president #45 carries the distinct smell of a public willing to turn more power over to a single person- the extension of power distance. It happened with Putin, Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, and others.

The connection to the Mennonite wedding is that the wedding party themselves served up lunch to the guests. This is a power distance shortening action meant to recognize and serve the guests as part of the community.

Some people criticize Gladwell for being just a bit shallow in his writings. He seems to write the view from 5,000 ft rather than from an alligator’s viewpoint in the swamp. There is a place for generalization … if you want readers, that is.

Lost Capsule of Cs-137 Recovered in Western Australia

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According to Reuters, a 6 mm diameter by 8 mm long capsule of radioactive Cesium-137 was lost along the 1400 km road between a storage facility in suburban Perth and Rio Tinto’s Gudai-Darri iron mine in the Kimberley region of western Australia. The source was lost sometime between January 12 and the 25th, 2023. The capsule had been attached to a piece of equipment in a crate but evidently vibrated loose in transport from a road train– a multi-trailer vehicle- and fell off. While the activity was not disclosed the source was described as one that “emits radiation equal to 10 X-rays per hour”.

On February 1, 2023, the source was reportedly located after a week-long search along the 1400 km road. It was discovered by a vehicle moving at 70 kph with special detection equipment.

Furious Russians on Television

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In following the savage Putin war against Ukraine I have become partial to watching short video’s on TVP’s Military Mind via YouTube. TVP is Polish public television. They have unique and up to date war footage and coverage every episode. The war footage they get is mostly drone or smart phone in origin and is pretty rough but it gives a sense of what it is like on the ground. If you are expecting politically balanced war reporting, this is not the place to get it. This Polish station is clearly wary of Russia, or Putin at least, and it’s geopolitical intentions.

Recently there was a particularly disturbing clip on TVP taken from a Russian television show called The Evening With Vladimir Solovyov . Solovyov is a state television mouthpiece for Putin. The format has guests standing at widely separated podiums and taking turns venting their sometimes murderous outrage. In it was a guest named Yevgeny Satanovsky who is President of the Institute of the Middle East who gave a very calm and matter-of-fact opinion on how to deal with their true enemies, the Americans. Russian TV has been startingly vocal about their perception of the “American threat” and what we deserve for standing up against them. From the Daily Beast article–

“First of all, our main enemy is certainly the United States. What does the U.S. react to? They react to two things: the threat of physical annihilation and the liquidation of a certain number of military personnel. What we know based on wars in Vietnam and Korea is that several tens of thousands of annihilated American servicemen will cause the public opinion in the U.S. to be severely strained. I will repeat: not several thousand, like in Afghanistan or Iraq, but a certain number of tens of thousands. Who will liquidate them, where they will be liquidated and in what way is completely irrelevant, but this is one of the objectives if we want to influence the American leadership. We have absolutely nothing to lose.”

Satanovsky concluded that based on how the Americans fought in Korea and Viet Nam, America could be counted on to limit it’s involvement up to a maximum of several “tens of thousands” of US casualties. They feign awareness of our dirty little secret of squeamishness about the body count in foreign engagements. Satanovsky said several times that Russia must “liquidate” several tens of thousands of Americans in order to stop America’s support of Ukraine. This is the key to American disengagement he says.

Resorting to grotesque threats in the same program, Andrey Kartapolov, head of the Russian State Duma Defense Committee, addressed the West with a line from an old Soviet movie: “Don’t worry, it won’t hurt when we cut your throat. We’ll slice just once and you’re in heaven… Our victory will take place wherever the Russian soldier will stop—and wherever he stops, from there he will never leave.”

Americanist Dmitry Drobnitsky commented: “In our country, we embraced one American we wouldn’t want to kill: that would be Tucker Carlson.” This is pathetic beyond words.

All of this is content generated by the host and his guests. But, their sentiments clearly are in line with the Kremlin’s interest in popular support for Putin’s war and antagonism towards the west. Much public sentiment seems to be tied up in national loss of face from the Russian military’s poor performance in the war but not so much in the actual need for the war. If you watch a few of these episodes you’ll see guests venting their white hot rage at America for it’s support of Ukraine peppered with references to WWIII and nuclear war with the west.

Propaganda, /ˌpräpəˈɡandə/, noun: information, especially of a biased or misleading nature, used to promote or publicize a particular political cause or point of view.

Americans should view some of this Russian television content to get an idea of the anti-American, anti-western bile being spewed continuously by the Russian propaganda apparatus. The Kremlin has been a master of propaganda for many years. They know the value of repeating big lies over and over. Unfortunately, certain Americans have been using this technique on our own population as well.

Hegemony, /həˈjemənē,ˈhejəˌmōnē/, noun: leadership or dominance, especially by one country or social group over others. “Germany was united under Prussian hegemony after 1871”

At present, Russia is publicly stamping their feet in outrage over western interference in their dirty little invasion, making every threat they can imagine. At the same time, actors for the state continue to conduct wave after wave of attacks on the west over the internet. Others are covertly interfering with our politics by trying to destabilize democracy. The overall goal the Russian’s share with China is to deflate American hegemony in the world and replace it with their own. You know, just your basic quest for world domination. It never ends.

100-year concrete aging experiment ends in 2023

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Somebody was thinking ahead at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1910. Civil engineering professor and later Dean of the College of Engineering, Morton O. Withey (1882-1961), began an experiment on the effect of age and environment on what was then a relatively new building material- concrete. Now, in 2023, a second 100-year batch of experimental castings are coming to completion.

Source: The Chi Phi Chakett, 1955

Withey, a 1904 Dartmouth graduate, began casting samples of various compositions of cement, sand and stone in 1910 when he initially cast 450 of the 6 x 12-inch cylinders. He cast other sets of samples in 1923 and 1937 for a total of over 2500 cylindrical castings.

According to the Wisconsin State Journal the 1910 samples were tested at the 100 year mark and the 1937 samples were tested at the 50 year mark. A comparison of the 1910 samples revealed that both the samples stored in the air and in water strengthened in similar increments for a time and thereafter the samples stored in water continued to strengthen. Exposure of the dry samples to carbon dioxide lead to chipping. The dry 1910 samples yielded to 75 tons of pressure whereas the wet samples yielded at up to 100 tons of pressure. This disparity is thought to arise from continuous hydration of the water-wet samples.

Since the time when the samples were cast, the chemistry of cement and concrete has changed to where the engineering data is no longer of interest for ongoing work. However, the experiment has broadened the envelop of known properties of various concrete compositions.

A wealth of interesting information on the properties of concrete can be found at the Wikipedia website.

Wyoming state senator back pedals on EV ban

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An article in the Washington Post today reveals that state senator Jim Anderson who introduced the resolution to ban EV sales by 2035 in Wyoming is now saying that he doesn’t “actually” want EV sales phased out. He said that he has no problem with EVs at all. Instead, he and other legislators have a problem with California’s plan to ban gas-powered vehicles. Anderson said, his bill was “just a resolution saying, ‘We don’t like your bill that you did.’”

It is no secret that regulations made in California often spread to the rest of the country and this seems to be part of the issue for the tit-for-tat in the Wyoming statehouse. Plainly this is a real worry for some. But to fire up the legislative machinery and produce a resolution grumbling about another state’s switch to EVs seems to be a bit of impotent GOP grandstanding. I’m sure it plays well in the Cowboy State. No worries about this tempest in a teapot. EVs will share the road with gas and diesel pickup trucks in Wyoming and the US for a long time to come.

Wyoming wants to ban sales of new EVs by 2035

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The Wyoming legislature has produced SJ0004 – Supporting the phasing out new electric vehicle sales by 2035. Below is a copy of the proposed bill. It’s just a joint resolution. Am I surprised that the square state sitting just north of my square state has produced this? Not in the least.

SENATE JOINT RESOLUTION NO. SJ0004

Phasing out new electric vehicle sales by 2035.

Sponsored by: Senator(s) Anderson, Boner, Cooper and Dockstader and Representative(s) Burkhart and Henderson

A JOINT RESOLUTION

for

A JOINT RESOLUTION expressing support for phasing out the sale of new electric vehicles in Wyoming by 2035.

WHEREAS, oil and gas production has long been one of Wyoming’s proud and valued industries; and

WHEREAS, the oil and gas industry in Wyoming has created countless jobs and has contributed revenues to the state of Wyoming throughout the state’s history; and

WHEREAS, since its invention, the gas-powered vehicle has enabled the state’s industries and businesses to engage in commerce and transport goods and resources more efficiently throughout the country; and

WHEREAS, Wyoming’s vast stretches of highway, coupled with a lack of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, make the widespread use of electric vehicles impracticable for the state; and

WHEREAS, the batteries used in electric vehicles contain critical minerals whose domestic supply is limited and at risk for disruption; and

WHEREAS, the critical minerals used in electric batteries are not easily recyclable or disposable, meaning that municipal landfills in Wyoming and elsewhere will be required to develop practices to dispose of these minerals in a safe and responsible manner; and

WHEREAS, the expansion of electric vehicle charging stations in Wyoming and throughout the country necessary to support more electric vehicles will require massive amounts of new power generation in order to sustain the misadventure of electric vehicles; and

WHEREAS, the United States has consistently invested in the oil and gas industry to sustain gas-powered vehicles, and that investment has resulted in the continued employment of thousands of people in the oil and gas industry in Wyoming and throughout the country; and

WHEREAS, fossil fuels, including oil and petroleum products, will continue to be vital for transporting goods and people across Wyoming and the United States for years to come; and

WHEREAS, the proliferation of electric vehicles at the expense of gas-powered vehicles will have deleterious impacts on Wyoming’s communities and will be detrimental to Wyoming’s economy and the ability for the country to efficiently engage in commerce; and

WHEREAS, phasing out the sale of new electric vehicles in Wyoming by 2035 will ensure the stability of Wyoming’s oil and gas industry and will help preserve the country’s critical minerals for vital purposes.

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED BY THE MEMBERS OF THE LEGISLATURE OF THE STATE OF WYOMING:

Section 1.  That the legislature encourages and expresses as a goal that the sale of new electric vehicles in the state of Wyoming be phased out by 2035.

Section 2.  That the legislature encourages Wyoming’s industries and citizens to limit the sale and purchase of new electric vehicles in Wyoming with a goal of phasing out the sale of new electric vehicles in Wyoming by 2035.

Section 3.  That the Secretary of State of Wyoming transmit copies of this resolution to the President of the United States, each member of Wyoming’s congressional delegation, the President of the United States Senate, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, the governor of Wyoming and the governor of California.

The “Effects of Nuclear Weapons”

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About 45 years ago I picked up a copy of a book titled The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 1977, edited by Samuel Glasstone and Philip J. Dolan and prepared by the US Department of Defense. As a plus the book came with a plastic circular slide rule that calculates weapons effects as a function of explosive yield and altitude. Being interested in nuclear energy and being a slide rule collector, this was a thrilling moment. I found it at the local Goodwill store. Still have it.

The book goes into all of the phenomenology of a nuclear detonation as well as the effects on the surrounding environment. It describes the blast effects, thermal radiation effects, crater dimensions, nuclear radiation and fallout, electromagnetic pulse and biological effects. Apparently, there was a lot of curve fitting of data over the years of weapons research that produced mathematical approximations allowing a calculating device to be made.

To be blunt, being overenthusiastic about weaponry has never struck me as, well, healthy. But I have always been fascinated by scientific extrema. Biggest, fastest, smallest, heaviest, hottest … you get the picture. What happens near the boundaries? Nuclear explosives and explosions certainly produce extreme effects.

I lived during the cold war up to the point where I finished my postdoc the same time as when Gorbachev dissolved the Soviet Union. The international dynamics of Soviet Cold War politics was interesting to follow at the time. Having some familiarity with nuclear weapons effects helped to accrue a bit of perspective on the nuclear threat element of the whole unfortunate time.